olivlawolivlaw

olivLaw · US equity research

ONE Gas, Inc. OGS

Natural Gas Distribution · SIC 4924 · Vertical: Natural Gas Distribution (SIC 4924)

82.22USD+1.47% · 1 dayClose 04 Nov 2026

ONE Gas is a 100% regulated natural gas distribution utility serving about 2.3 million customers in Oklahoma, Kansas and Texas. For 2026 management raised its adjusted earnings expectations to the upper half of guidance, showing how constructive rate decisions can shape results.

The AI analysis may be outdated: new filings came after its sources (see the «AI analysis» section).

At the close of 04 Nov 2026, ONE Gas, Inc. (OGS) stock was 82.22 USD (+1.47% on the day), with market capitalisation 5.2 bn USD, P/E 17.5 on diluted EPS of 4.69 USD over the last 12 months, dividend yield 3.30%, beta 0.10, 52-week range 71.66–90.64 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q3 2026): net income of 31.2 m USD (+18.0% YoY), diluted EPS 0.49 USD.

Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.

Market cap
5.2 bn USD
shares as of 23 Oct 2026
P/E (TTM)
17.5
Diluted EPS TTM 4.69 · TTM to 30 Sept 2026
E/P (TTM)
5.70%
TTM to 30 Sept 2026
Dividend yield
3.30%
DPS 12m 2.71
Beta (2y)
0.10
Volatility (1y) 18%
52-week range
71.6690.64

Price history

Loading chart…

Technical reading

RSI (14)
75.4
overbought (≥ 70)
Bollinger (20, 2)
71.26 – 82.06
above the upper band · %B 1.01 · band width 14.1%
SMA 50 / 200
76.25 / 80.95
mixed trend
MACD (12, 26, 9)
1.53 / 0.87
MACD above signal

Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).

Performance

CompanyS&P 500vs S&P 500Vertical median
1 month+13.3%−2.0%+15.3 pp—
3 months+3.7%−2.2%+5.9 pp—
6 months−4.4%+4.3%−8.7 pp—
Year to date+6.4%+10.6%−4.1 pp—
1 year+0.4%+10.5%−10.0 pp+9.1%
3 years+32.2%+73.7%−41.5 pp+40.1%
5 years+18.7%+61.7%−43.0 pp—
Max drawdown (1y)
−20.9%
09 Apr 2026 → 28 Sept 2026
Max drawdown (5y)
−37.3%
08 Apr 2022 → 30 Nov 2023
Compound annual growth (5y)
+3.5%
S&P 500 +10.1%

Price returns, dividends excluded.

Quarterly results

Latest quarter: Q3 2026 · 30 Sept 2026

Revenue
unavailable USD
unavailable YoY
Net income
31.2 m USD
+18.0% YoY
Diluted EPS
0.49
+11.4% YoY
net / operating
unavailable / unavailable

Quarterly statements · USD

Fiscal yearQ4 '24Q1 '25Q2 '25Q3 '25Q4 '25Q1 '26Q2 '26Q3 '26
Cost of revenue263.7 m512.5 m117.9 m76.6 m291.9 m393.6 m90.3 m73.8 m
Operating income124.3 m180.5 m71.9 m65.4 m139.7 m189.6 m82.7 m77.4 m
Interest expense39.8 m35.7 m35.3 m35.4 m36.5 m32.4 m31.1 m36.6 m
Pre-tax income84.7 m145.3 m39.1 m32.4 m104.6 m155.1 m56.8 m38.0 m
Income tax7.6 m25.9 m7.1 m5.9 m18.3 m26.5 m10.0 m6.8 m
Net income77.0 m119.4 m32.0 m26.5 m86.3 m128.7 m46.8 m31.2 m
Diluted EPS1.34 ≈1.980.530.441.42 ≈2.040.740.49
Operating cash flow62.6 m277.5 m171.4 m ≈87.0 m ≈43.0 m176.3 m211.0 m ≈120.5 m ≈
Capex179.6 m166.6 m180.5 m ≈192.4 m ≈167.8 m156.5 m173.5 m ≈212.4 m ≈
Dividends paid37.4 m40.2 m40.2 m ≈40.2 m ≈40.2 m42.7 m42.7 m ≈42.7 m ≈

≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)

E/P over time

E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.

Today's P/E sits at the 20 percentile of its own 40-quarter history (min 15.3, median 19.5, max 28.4; quarters with earnings only).

Fiscal years

Fiscal year20182019202020212022202320242025
Revenue1.6 bn1.7 bn1.5 bn1.8 bn2.6 bnunavailableunavailableunavailable
Revenue YoY+6.1%+1.2%−7.4%+18.2%+42.5%unavailableunavailableunavailable
Net income172.2 m186.7 m196.4 m206.4 m221.7 m231.2 m222.9 m264.2 m
Net income YoY+5.7%+8.4%+5.2%+5.1%+7.4%+4.3%−3.6%+18.6%
Diluted EPS3.253.513.683.854.084.143.914.37
Diluted EPS YoY+5.5%+8.0%+4.8%+4.6%+6.0%+1.5%−5.6%+11.8%
net %10.5%11.3%12.8%11.4%8.6%unavailableunavailableunavailable
Free cash flow73.2 m-107.0 m-106.8 m-2.0 bn961.4 m272.9 m-334.8 m-128.4 m

Reported results vs expectations

Loading…

Balance sheet & financial health

Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025

Cash
10.6 m USD
Financial debt
2.6 bn USD
Net debt
2.6 bn USD
Equity
3.4 bn USD
Total assets
8.9 bn USD
Debt / equity
0.76x
Current ratio
0.60x
ROE
8.1%
ROA
3.1%
FCF margin
unavailable

Financial statements (source on every figure)

Revenue and net income (USD)

Margins

Income statement · USD

Revenue
2023
—
2024
—
2025
—

SEC (XBRL)· 23 Feb 2023verified

Cost of revenue
2023
1.1 bn
2024
778.3 m
2025
998.9 m

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified

Gross profit
2023
—
2024
—
2025
—

SEC (XBRL)· 23 Feb 2023derived

Operating income
2023
377.6 m
2024
398.9 m
2025
457.5 m

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified

Interest expense
2023
115.3 m
2024
147.2 m
2025
142.8 m

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified

Pre-tax income
2023
271.7 m
2024
259.2 m
2025
321.5 m

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified

Income tax
2023
40.5 m
2024
36.4 m
2025
57.2 m

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified

Net income
2023
231.2 m
2024
222.9 m
2025
264.2 m

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified

Diluted EPS
2023
4.14
2024
3.91
2025
4.37

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified

Weighted average diluted shares
2023
55.9 m
2024
57.0 m
2025
60.5 m

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified

Dividend per share
2023
2.60
2024
2.64
2025
2.68

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified

Balance sheet · USD

Cash
2023
18.8 m
2024
58.0 m
2025
10.6 m

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified

Current assets
2023
765.2 m
2024
929.9 m
2025
915.9 m

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified

Property, plant & equipment, net
2023
—
2024
6.6 bn
2025
7.1 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified

Goodwill
2023
158.0 m
2024
158.0 m
2025
158.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified

Intangibles (excl. goodwill)
2023
—
2024
—
2025
—

SEC (XBRL)· 23 Feb 2023verified

Total assets
2023
7.8 bn
2024
8.4 bn
2025
8.9 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified

Accounts payable
2023
278.1 m
2024
261.3 m
2025
222.1 m

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified

Short-term debt
2023
0
2024
0
2025
249.7 m

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified

Long-term debt
2023
2.2 bn
2024
2.4 bn
2025
2.4 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified

Current liabilities
2023
1.5 bn
2024
1.5 bn
2025
1.5 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified

Equity
2023
2.8 bn †
2024
3.1 bn †
2025
3.4 bn †

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified

Cash flow · USD

Operating cash flow
2023
939.5 m
2024
368.4 m
2025
578.8 m

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified

Capex
2023
666.6 m
2024
703.2 m
2025
707.2 m

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified

Free cash flow
2023
272.9 m ≈
2024
-334.8 m ≈
2025
-128.4 m ≈

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026derived

Investing cash flow
2023
-669.6 m
2024
-707.5 m
2025
-715.3 m

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified

Financing cash flow
2023
-248.6 m
2024
378.2 m
2025
91.7 m

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified

Dividends paid
2023
144.1 m
2024
149.5 m
2025
160.7 m

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified

Computed indicators

Growth

Revenue growth (YoY)
42.5%
computed by olivLawFY 2022
Revenue CAGR 3Y
16.0%
computed by olivLawFY 2019 → FY 2022
Revenue CAGR 5Y
10.9%
computed by olivLawFY 2017 → FY 2022
EBIT growth (YoY)
12.8%
computed by olivLawFY 2022
Net income growth (YoY)
7.4%
computed by olivLawFY 2022
Net income CAGR 3Y
5.9%
computed by olivLawFY 2019 → FY 2022
Net income CAGR 5Y
6.3%
computed by olivLawFY 2017 → FY 2022
EPS growth (YoY)
6.0%
computed by olivLawFY 2022
EPS CAGR 3Y
5.1%
computed by olivLawFY 2019 → FY 2022
EPS CAGR 5Y
5.8%
computed by olivLawFY 2017 → FY 2022
FCF growth (YoY)
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive

Profitability

Gross margin
unavailable
input data missing
EBITDA margin
unavailable
input data missing
EBIT margin
unavailable
input data missing
Net margin
unavailable
input data missing
FCF margin
unavailable
input data missing

Returns

ROE
8.7%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
ROA
3.4%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
ROIC
6.7%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
ROCE
6.3%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Payout ratio (EPS)
57.8%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Payout ratio (FCF)
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive

Balance sheet

Net debt
2.7 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Net debt / EBITDA
unavailable
input data missing
Debt / equity
0.8x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Interest coverage
3.6x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026

Liquidity

Current ratio
0.6x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Quick ratio
unavailable
input data missing
Cash ratio
0.0x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026

Cash

Operating cash flow
550.8 m USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Capital expenditure
710.3 m USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Free cash flow
-159.5 m USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
FCF conversion
-54.4%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Cash conversion
unavailable
input data missing

Efficiency

Days sales outstanding
unavailable
input data missing
Days inventory outstanding
unavailable
input data missing
Days payables outstanding
53 days
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Cash conversion cycle
unavailable
input data missing

Market and valuation

Market capitalisation
5.2 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Enterprise value
7.9 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Market cap / net income TTM
17.6x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
P/E (TTM)
17.5x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Earnings yield
5.7%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
P/B
1.5x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
P/S
unavailable
input data missing
EV/EBITDA
unavailable
input data missing
EV/EBIT
16.1x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
EV/Sales
unavailable
input data missing
P/FCF
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
FCF yield
-3.1%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Dividend yield
3.3%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Shareholder yield (distributions)
3.3%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026

Risk

Altman Z
unavailable
input data missing

Valuation

olivLaw classification

Unattractive profile

Score: 36 / 100

A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.

score < 40

Closing price

82.22 USD

04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series

Market cap: 5.2 bn USD

Key indicators

Market capitalisation
5.2 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
P/E (TTM)
17.5x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
P/B
1.5x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
EV/EBITDA
unavailable
input data missing
ROE
8.7%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Net margin
unavailable
input data missing
Revenue growth (YoY)
42.5%
computed by olivLawFY 2022
Dividend yield
3.3%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026

Coverage and freshness

28/37 reporting lines present
Latest full fiscal year: 2022
Latest reported period: 30 Sept 2026
Latest balance sheet date: 30 Sept 2026
Share count (cover of the latest filing), as of: 23 Oct 2026
Source: SEC (XBRL)published 03 Nov 2026
verified 1806derived 129

Score by group

  • Valuation22
  • Returns47
  • Quality25
  • Balance sheet19
  • Growth67

Estimated value range

Low
45.05
USD per share
Mid
58.10
USD per share
High
72.44
USD per share
Price: 82.22 USD
The price is above the range
Potential to the central value: -29.3% (value / price − 1)
Margin of safety: -41.5% (1 − price / value)
Agreement between methods: low · 2 methods used · 2 independent bases

The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 35.22 – 97.52 USD.

Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.

Method ranges (USD per share)

— — Mid · ▏ Price

Valuation methods

  • DCF (discounted cash flow)unavailable · the base of the ratio is not positive
  • Peers: EV/EBITDAunavailable · input data missing
  • Peers: P/E54.88 – 97.52 (Mid 75.81)
    10 companies used · median multiple 16.2x · quartiles 11.7x – 20.8x
    ATO, CQP, EE, LNG, MDU, NFG, NJR, NWN, SR, VG
  • Dividend discount (DDM)35.22 – 47.36 (Mid 40.40)
Multiple comparisons use the SIC vertical: Natural Gas Distribution (SIC 4924)

Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.

Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)

Risk-free rate
4.3%
Equity risk premium
5.0%
Beta (default)
1.00
Cost of equity
9.3%
Terminal growth
2.5%

Factor scorecard

Unattractive profile · Score 36/100

FactorValueScoreWeight used
ROIC · Quality6.7%40 (vs peers)15%
Net margin · Qualityunavailableunavailable—
FCF conversion · Quality-54.4%0 (on a fixed band)9%
Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth16.0%100 (on a fixed band)12%
EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth5.1%34 (on a fixed band)12%
Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheetunavailableunavailable—
Interest coverage · Balance sheet3.6x32 (on a fixed band)9%
Current ratio · Balance sheet0.6x0 (on a fixed band)6%
P/E (TTM) · Valuation17.5x40 (vs peers)15%
EV/EBITDA · Valuationunavailableunavailable—
FCF yield · Valuation-3.1%0 (on a fixed band)12%
Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns3.3%47 (on a fixed band)9%
Payout ratio (FCF) · Returnsunavailableunavailable—

Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.

Score groups

  • Balance sheet19/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
  • Growth67/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
  • Quality25/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
  • Returns· partial47/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
  • Valuation22/100 · 2/3 factors with a value

A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.

Memo

ONE Gas, Inc. (OGS). Latest full fiscal year: 2022; data up to 2026-09-30.

Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 2.6 bn USD in 2022; YoY growth 42.5%; ROE 8.7%.

The estimated value range is 45.05–72.44 USD per share (median of 2 methods, agreement: low); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 58.10 USD, the price of 82.22 USD leaves a potential of -29.3% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of -41.5% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.

olivLaw score 36/100, methodological classification: unattractive profile (score, margin of safety and method agreement together; not a judgement of the right price). Groups assessed only in part: returns. Not investment advice.

Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.

What supports the thesis

  • Revenue CAGR 3Y: 16.0%

What contradicts it

  • FCF conversion: -54.4%
  • Current ratio: 0.6x
  • FCF yield: -3.1%
  • The price is above the estimated value range
  • The valuation methods diverge

Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): Net margin, Net debt / EBITDA, EV/EBITDA, Payout ratio (FCF).

Versus the vertical median

Natural Gas Distribution (SIC 4924) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 14 companies

Multiples and returns vs the median

P/E
17.5x
vertical median 16.2x
above median (+8.5%)
EV/EBITDA
—
vertical median 10.3x
P/S
—
vertical median 2.6x
P/B
1.5x
vertical median 1.7x
below median (−15.7%)
ROE
8.7%
vertical median 10.1%
below median (−13.3%)
Net margin
—
vertical median 13.1%
EBIT margin
—
vertical median 25.5%
Revenue YoY
42.5%
vertical median 10.8%
above median (+292.2%)
Net debt/EBITDA
—
vertical median 2.9x
Dividend yield
3.3%
vertical median 2.5%
above median (+30.6%)

Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)

Companies in the vertical

Market capP/EROENet marginRevenue YoY1A / 3A
LNGCheniere Energy, Inc.63.5 bn21.745.7%13.1%+27.2%+49% / +71%
CQPCheniere Energy Partners, L.P.30.5 bn9.3—28.1%+23.6%+16% / +2%
ATOAtmos Energy Corp29.4 bn20.79.8%28.5%+12.9%−1% / +53%
NFGNational Fuel Gas Company7.3 bn10.619.6%26.9%+17.1%−7% / +51%
NJRNew Jersey Resources Corporation5.6 bn15.214.5%24.0%+9.9%+15% / +30%
SRSpire Inc.5.3 bn14.910.3%13.9%−4.5%+2% / +48%
OGSONE Gas, Inc.5.2 bn17.58.7%—+42.5%+0% / +32%
MDUMdu Resources Group Inc4.2 bn20.87.0%10.7%+6.7%−7% / +87%
NWNNorthwest Natural Holding Company2.2 bn17.18.3%9.7%+11.8%+4% / +40%
NFENew Fortress Energy Inc.1.2 bn—-533.9%-148.7%−36.2%+234% / −89%
SLNGStabilis Solutions, Inc.71.2 m—-12.7%-14.1%−6.9%−18% / −16%
CETYClean Energy Technologies, Inc.10.4 m—-76.3%-245.9%−63.8%−53% / −96%
VGVenture Global, Inc.—9.154.7%22.3%+176.9%+61% / unavailable
EEExcelerate Energy, Inc—26.8——+44.3%+22% / +105%
UGPUltrapar Holdings Inc.——16.5%1.8%+5.9%+36% / +10%

1- and 3-year price returns: for OGS from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.

olivLaw engine forecast

The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.

The engine has no published run for this company yet.

Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)

Illustrative scenarios

Scenarios are not available. input data missing

AI analysis

AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 05 Aug 2026; since then the company filed 10-Q (03 Nov 2026), 8-K (02 Nov 2026 · results).

In brief

ONE Gas is a 100% regulated natural gas distribution utility serving about 2.3 million customers in Oklahoma, Kansas and Texas 1. For 2026 management raised its adjusted earnings expectations to the upper half of guidance, showing how constructive rate decisions can shape results 3.

SWOT

Strengths

  • The company is a 100% regulated utility with predictable revenue and gas acquisition costs recovered without markup 1.
  • It operates in three states with growing customer numbers and mechanisms that reduce the lag in recovering investment 12.
  • It recently raised its 2026 adjusted earnings expectations, indicating solid execution of its growth strategy 3.

Weaknesses

  • Revenue depends heavily on weather and consumption volumes, and part of the fixed recovery is not fully compensated for consumption swings 1.
  • Employee and outside service costs have risen, compressing operating margins in some quarters 12.
  • Part of the workforce is unionized, and renegotiating collective agreements could lead to work stoppages 1.

Opportunities

  • Infrastructure projects in southeast Oklahoma and extensions to new customers could open additional regulated revenue 1.
  • Rate mechanisms in Texas and Kansas allow requests between rate cases, which could speed up investment recovery 12.
  • If regulators approve further reliability investment, the company could expand its regulated capital base 2.

Threats

  • Competition from electricity could over the long term reduce customer numbers or gas consumption 1.
  • Regulatory decisions may limit or delay rate increases, and some costs could remain unrecovered 1.
  • Extreme weather, cyber attacks and stricter safety rules could raise costs 1.

Risks

  • Operational and safety riskhigh

    Leaks, explosions and equipment failures can have serious consequences, and insurance may not fully cover losses 1.

  • Climate and weather riskmedium

    Extreme weather and climate change can shift demand and raise service costs, even though normalization mechanisms soften the effect 12.

  • Technology and cyber riskmedium

    Reliance on IT systems and cyber attacks can disrupt operations and expose confidential data 1.

  • Workforce risklow

    Difficulty attracting and keeping skilled staff, and possible strikes by unionized employees, can affect operations 1.

Investment thesis

What would need to be true (bull case)

  • If regulators keep approving rate increases and interim mechanisms, earnings could keep growing, as the raised 2026 guidance suggests 23.
  • Customer growth in Oklahoma and Texas, combined with an expanding regulated capital base, could support long-term revenue 12.
  • The 100% regulated utility structure offers a more predictable risk profile than companies exposed to market prices 1.

What would break the thesis

  • If regulators partly reject rate requests or delay approvals, the gap between investment and recovery could weigh on results 12.
  • Warmer weather or stronger competition from electricity could reduce volumes and revenue despite normalization mechanisms 12.
  • Rising staff and outside service costs could compress margins if they are not fully recovered through rates 12.

What to watch

  • OCC decision on the Oklahoma PBRC application and any appeals2026
  • Approval of the Kansas Gas Service GSRS request, planned to take effect in October 2026Q4 2026
  • Delivery of 2026 adjusted earnings guidance in the upper half of the range2026
  • Trend of operating costs and capital expenditure against the target of about 800 million USDnext 10-K

Products, market & competition

AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 05 Aug 2026; since then the company filed 10-Q (03 Nov 2026), 8-K (02 Nov 2026 · results).

The business

ONE Gas, Inc., headquartered in Tulsa, Oklahoma, trades on the NYSE under the symbol OGS and distributes natural gas to residential, commercial and transportation customers in three states 1. Its divisions Oklahoma Natural Gas, Kansas Gas Service and Texas Gas Service serve largely major cities such as Oklahoma City, Tulsa, Kansas City, Wichita, Austin and El Paso 1. The company operates as a single reportable segment, regulated public utilities 1.

The strategy centers on safe operations, capital investment for system integrity and reliability, and an engaged workforce 1. Revenue comes from delivering gas rather than selling it, since gas costs pass through to customers at cost 1. Revenue is sensitive to weather, partly cushioned by weather normalization mechanisms 1.

The latest quarterly results show net income of 46.8 million USD in the second quarter of 2026, compared with 32.0 million USD a year earlier, supported by new rates and customer growth 23.

Segments

Regulated natural gas distribution

The single reported segment covers regulated public utilities delivering natural gas to residential, commercial and transportation customers, with total revenues of 2427.4 million USD in fiscal 2025 1.

Natural gas sales

Natural gas sales reached 2196.3 million USD in fiscal 2025, combining fixed and variable charges with gas costs passed through to customers 1.

Market context

The company operates in cost-of-service jurisdictions where regulators set allowed returns and permit cost recovery, with an inherent lag between investment and new rates 1. The authorized ROE is 9.4 percent in Oklahoma and 9.8 percent in Texas 1. Demand depends mainly on weather and, to a lesser extent, economic activity 1.

Competition comes mainly from electricity for heating and cooking, from other local distribution companies in Texas, and for large industrial customers from other pipelines 1. The energy source is usually chosen at installation and tends to remain for the life of the equipment 1.

Trends

  • Infrastructure investment and new ratestailwind

    New rates and interim mechanisms allow recovery of investment, and the second quarter of 2026 benefited from them; if regulators keep approving such mechanisms, earnings growth could support guidance 23.

  • Customer growthtailwind

    Net customer growth across all three states supports residential revenue, especially in Oklahoma and Texas 12.

  • Warmer than normal weatherheadwind

    The second quarter of 2026 was warmer than the prior year, and higher temperatures reduce volumes; normalization mechanisms soften but do not fully offset this effect 23.

  • Cost pressure and environmental regulationmixed

    Employee, outside service and integrity and safety costs are rising, and changing regulation may limit full recovery, which could weigh on results 12.

Competitive position

The company competes mainly with electricity for heating, cooking and drying, a competition that could reduce gas consumption over time 1. In Texas it also faces other local distribution companies, and large industrial customers can choose other gas transporters 1.

Negotiated reduced transportation rates apply where a competing pipeline is nearby or another viable energy option exists, which pressures margins in the industrial segment 1.

  • Other local distribution companies in Texas

    Compete for customers in Texas, where ONE Gas faces other local distribution companies 1.

  • Electricity suppliers

    Compete with natural gas for heating, water heating and cooking, especially in the residential and small commercial market 1.

  • Gas pipeline operators

    Compete for large industrial and commercial customers that transport gas, especially where negotiated rates apply 1.

  • Other alternative energy providers

    Competition from other energy sources could replace natural gas if their price or availability becomes more favorable 1.

News & filings

In the press

No news in our archive over the last 180 days.

SEC filings

  • Quarterly report03 Nov 2026
  • Current report02 Nov 2026
    Results of operations · Regulation FD disclosure · Other events · Financial statements and exhibits
  • Current report29 Sept 2026
    Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
  • Current report25 Sept 2026
    Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
  • Current report08 Sept 2026
    Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
  • Current report13 Aug 2026
    Material agreement · Creation of a direct financial obligation · Financial statements and exhibits
  • Quarterly report05 Aug 2026
  • Current report04 Aug 2026
    Results of operations · Regulation FD disclosure · Other events · Financial statements and exhibits
  • Current report04 Aug 2026
    Amendments to articles or bylaws · Financial statements and exhibits
  • Current report13 Jul 2026
    Departure or appointment of officers · Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits

Sources

  1. [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · SEC / ONE Gas, Inc. · 19 Feb 2026
  2. [2] Form 10-Q, quarter ended 2026-06-30 · SEC / ONE Gas, Inc. · 05 Aug 2026
  3. [3] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / ONE Gas, Inc. · 04 Aug 2026

Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.