olivLaw · US equity research
National Fuel Gas Company NFG
Natural Gas Distribution · SIC 4924 · Vertical: Natural Gas Distribution (SIC 4924)
National Fuel Gas Company is an integrated energy company engaged in the production, gathering, transportation, storage and distribution of natural gas, with assets centred in western New York and Pennsylvania. It matters now because it is preparing to close its Ohio utility acquisition on October 1, 2026, which could roughly double its regulated gas utility rate base.
At the close of 04 Nov 2026, National Fuel Gas Company (NFG) stock was 76.54 USD (−2.66% on the day), with market capitalisation 7.3 bn USD, P/E 10.6 on diluted EPS of 7.20 USD over the last 12 months, dividend yield 2.82%, beta 0.17, 52-week range 75.86–96.30 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q3 2026): revenue of 537.5 m USD (+1.1% YoY), net income of 138.6 m USD (−7.5% YoY), diluted EPS 1.45 USD.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
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Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 38.2
- weak (30–45)
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 77.08 – 82.03
- below the lower band · %B -0.11 · band width 6.2%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 80.06 / 83.33
- downtrend (price < SMA50 < SMA200)
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- -0.21 / 0.02
- MACD below signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | S&P 500 | vs S&P 500 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | +0.3% | −2.0% | +2.3 pp | — |
| 3 months | −3.0% | −2.2% | −0.8 pp | — |
| 6 months | −6.1% | +4.3% | −10.4 pp | — |
| Year to date | −4.4% | +10.6% | −15.0 pp | — |
| 1 year | −4.6% | +10.5% | −15.1 pp | +9.1% |
| 3 years | +41.3% | +73.7% | −32.4 pp | +40.1% |
| 5 years | +29.0% | +61.7% | −32.7 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
Latest quarter: Q3 2026 · 30 Jun 2026
Quarterly margins
Quarterly statements · USD
| Fiscal year | Q4 '24 | Q1 '25 | Q2 '25 | Q3 '25 | Q4 '25 | Q1 '26 | Q2 '26 | Q3 '26 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 372.1 m | 549.5 m | 730.0 m | 531.8 m | 466.3 m | 651.5 m | 858.4 m | 537.5 m |
| Cost of revenue | -17.4 m | 65.3 m | 135.3 m | 28.0 m | -15.2 m | 85.6 m | 207.9 m | 29.9 m |
| Operating income | -196.6 m | 86.2 m | 317.3 m | 230.3 m | 179.8 m | 276.1 m | 347.1 m | 208.9 m |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 108.8 m | 109.4 m | 111.3 m | 116.4 m | 119.5 m | 122.0 m | 119.3 m | 121.1 m |
| Interest expense | 48.9 m | 37.7 m | 44.8 m | 37.9 m | 35.4 m | 43.4 m | 33.7 m | 36.0 m |
| Pre-tax income | -228.0 m | 56.2 m | 287.7 m | 200.9 m | 149.3 m | 241.0 m | 330.4 m | 184.8 m |
| Income tax | -60.4 m | 11.2 m | 71.4 m | 51.1 m | 41.9 m | 59.3 m | 82.7 m | 46.2 m |
| Net income | -167.6 m | 45.0 m | 216.4 m | 149.8 m | 107.3 m | 181.6 m | 247.7 m | 138.6 m |
| Diluted EPS | -1.82 ≈ | 0.49 | 2.37 | 1.64 | 1.18 ≈ | 1.98 | 2.59 | 1.45 |
| Operating cash flow | 197.9 m | 220.1 m | 253.8 m ≈ | 388.4 m ≈ | 237.8 m | 274.9 m | 382.4 m ≈ | 377.3 m ≈ |
| Capex | 247.0 m | 240.4 m | 193.8 m ≈ | 193.1 m ≈ | 285.5 m | 277.6 m | 220.6 m ≈ | 266.2 m ≈ |
| Dividends paid | 47.2 m | 46.9 m | 46.7 m ≈ | 46.6 m ≈ | 48.3 m | 48.4 m | 50.8 m ≈ | 50.8 m ≈ |
| Share repurchases | 36.2 m | 33.5 m | 16.9 m ≈ | 4.0 m ≈ | 0 | 0 | 0 ≈ | 0 ≈ |
≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Today's P/E sits at the 17 percentile of its own 35-quarter history (min 8.4, median 13.4, max 176.9; quarters with earnings only).
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 1.6 bn | 1.7 bn | 1.5 bn | 1.7 bn | 2.2 bn | 2.2 bn | 1.9 bn | 2.3 bn |
| Revenue YoY | +0.8% | +6.3% | −8.7% | +12.7% | +25.4% | −0.6% | −10.5% | +17.1% |
| Net income | 391.5 m | 304.3 m | -123.8 m | 363.6 m | 566.0 m | 476.9 m | 77.5 m | 518.5 m |
| Net income YoY | +38.1% | −22.3% | −140.7% | unavailable | +55.7% | −15.8% | −83.7% | +568.9% |
| Diluted EPS | 4.53 | 3.51 | -1.41 | 3.97 | 6.15 | 5.17 | 0.84 | 5.68 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | +37.3% | −22.5% | −140.2% | unavailable | +54.9% | −15.9% | −83.8% | +576.2% |
| net % | 24.6% | 18.0% | -8.0% | 20.9% | 25.9% | 21.9% | 4.0% | 22.8% |
| Free cash flow | 31.3 m | -94.5 m | 24.7 m | 39.8 m | 695.0 k | 227.2 m | 134.7 m | 187.2 m |
Reported results vs expectations
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Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2025 · 30 Sept 2025
- Cash
- 43.2 m USD
- Financial debt
- 2.5 bn USD
- Net debt
- 2.5 bn USD
- Equity
- 3.1 bn USD
- Total assets
- 8.7 bn USD
- Debt / equity
- 0.82x
- Current ratio
- 0.44x
- ROE
- 17.4%
- ROA
- 6.1%
- FCF margin
- 8.2%
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (USD)
Margins
Income statement · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 1.5 bn | 1.7 bn | 2.2 bn | 2.2 bn | 1.9 bn | 2.3 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 21 Nov 2025verified |
| Cost of revenue | 233.9 m | 171.8 m | 392.1 m | 437.6 m | 150.1 m | 213.4 m | SEC (XBRL)· 21 Nov 2025verified |
| Gross profit | 1.3 bn ≈ | 1.6 bn ≈ | 1.8 bn ≈ | 1.7 bn ≈ | 1.8 bn ≈ | 2.1 bn ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 21 Nov 2025derived |
| Operating income | 29.9 m | 639.9 m | 814.5 m | 755.1 m | 209.7 m | 813.5 m | SEC (XBRL)· 21 Nov 2025verified |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 306.2 m | 335.3 m | 369.8 m | 409.6 m | 457.0 m | 456.6 m | SEC (XBRL)· 21 Nov 2025verified |
| EBITDA | 336.0 m ≈ | 975.2 m ≈ | 1.2 bn ≈ | 1.2 bn ≈ | 666.8 m ≈ | 1.3 bn ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 21 Nov 2025derived |
| Interest expense | 117.1 m | 146.4 m | 130.4 m | 131.9 m | 138.7 m | 155.8 m | SEC (XBRL)· 21 Nov 2025verified |
| Pre-tax income | -105.0 m | 478.3 m | 682.7 m | 641.4 m | 87.3 m | 694.1 m | SEC (XBRL)· 21 Nov 2025verified |
| Income tax | 18.7 m | 114.7 m | 116.6 m | 164.5 m | 9.7 m | 175.5 m | SEC (XBRL)· 21 Nov 2025verified |
| Net income | -123.8 m | 363.6 m | 566.0 m | 476.9 m | 77.5 m | 518.5 m | SEC (XBRL)· 21 Nov 2025verified |
| Diluted EPS | -1.41 | 3.97 | 6.15 | 5.17 | 0.84 | 5.68 | SEC (XBRL)· 21 Nov 2025verified |
| Weighted average diluted shares | 88.0 m | 91.7 m | 92.1 m | 92.3 m | 92.3 m | 91.2 m | SEC (XBRL)· 21 Nov 2025verified |
| Dividend per share | 1.76 | 1.80 | 1.86 | 1.94 | 2.02 | 2.10 | SEC (XBRL)· 21 Nov 2025verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Revenue − Cost of revenue; Operating income + Depreciation & amortisation.
Balance sheet · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 20.5 m | 31.5 m | 46.0 m | 55.4 m | 38.2 m | 43.2 m | SEC (XBRL)· 21 Nov 2025verified |
| Current assets | 314.2 m | 522.4 m | 761.1 m | 414.4 m | 355.9 m | 410.7 m | SEC (XBRL)· 21 Nov 2025verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | 6.0 bn | 6.4 bn | 6.6 bn | 7.3 bn | 7.3 bn | 7.7 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 21 Nov 2025verified |
| Goodwill | 5.5 m | 5.5 m | 5.5 m | 5.5 m | 5.5 m | 5.5 m | SEC (XBRL)· 21 Nov 2025verified |
| Total assets | 7.0 bn | 7.5 bn | 7.9 bn | 8.3 bn | 8.3 bn | 8.7 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 21 Nov 2025verified |
| Accounts payable | 134.1 m | 171.7 m | 178.9 m | 152.2 m | 165.1 m | 184.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 21 Nov 2025verified |
| Short-term debt | 30.0 m | 158.5 m | 60.0 m | 287.5 m | 90.7 m | 150.2 m | SEC (XBRL)· 21 Nov 2025verified |
| Long-term debt | 2.6 bn | 2.6 bn | 2.1 bn | 2.4 bn | 2.2 bn | 2.4 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 21 Nov 2025verified |
| Current liabilities | 459.6 m | 1.2 bn | 1.9 bn | 806.3 m | 1.1 bn | 925.8 m | SEC (XBRL)· 21 Nov 2025verified |
| Equity | 2.0 bn | 1.8 bn | 2.1 bn | 3.0 bn | 2.8 bn | 3.1 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 21 Nov 2025verified |
Cash flow · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | 740.8 m | 791.6 m | 812.5 m | 1.2 bn | 1.1 bn | 1.1 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 21 Nov 2025verified |
| Capex | 716.2 m | 751.7 m | 811.8 m | 1.0 bn | 931.2 m | 912.8 m | SEC (XBRL)· 21 Nov 2025verified |
| Free cash flow | 24.7 m ≈ | 39.8 m ≈ | 695.0 k ≈ | 227.2 m ≈ | 134.7 m ≈ | 187.2 m ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 21 Nov 2025derived |
| Investing cash flow | -1.2 bn | -633.2 m | -518.7 m | -1.1 bn | -933.9 m | -891.7 m | SEC (XBRL)· 21 Nov 2025verified |
| Financing cash flow | 476.1 m | -58.7 m | -276.2 m | -207.0 m | -149.3 m | -203.4 m | SEC (XBRL)· 21 Nov 2025verified |
| Dividends paid | 153.3 m | 163.1 m | 168.1 m | 176.1 m | 183.8 m | 188.4 m | SEC (XBRL)· 21 Nov 2025verified |
| Share repurchases | — | — | 0 | 0 | 64.1 m | 54.4 m | SEC (XBRL)· 21 Nov 2025verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating cash flow − Capex.
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
Risk
Valuation
olivLaw classification
Score: 57 / 100
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 7.3 bn USD
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
- Valuation75
- Returns41
- Quality60
- Balance sheet78
- Growth6
Estimated value range
The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 27.60 – 164.80 USD.
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Method ranges (USD per share)
— — Mid · ▏ Price
Valuation methods
- DCF (discounted cash flow)28.49 – 68.02 (Mid 42.59)WACC 7.7% · starting FCFF 333.1 m USD · terminal value share of EV 78%The WACC × g sensitivity gives the method's bounds; these are not probabilities.Reverse DCF: starting growth implied by the price (fading linearly to terminal growth, everything else fixed): 20.0%
- Peers: EV/EBITDA127.86 – 164.80 (Mid 143.70)7 companies used · median multiple 10.7x · quartiles 9.7x – 12.0xATO, CQP, LNG, MDU, NJR, NWN, SR
- Peers: P/E107.80 – 149.66 (Mid 124.69)10 companies used · median multiple 17.3x · quartiles 15.0x – 20.8xATO, CQP, EE, LNG, MDU, NJR, NWN, OGS, SR, VG
- Dividend discount (DDM)27.60 – 37.11 (Mid 31.65)
Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 4.3%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 9.3%
- Terminal growth
- 2.5%
Factor scorecard
Neutral profile · Score 57/100
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | 13.0% | 80 (vs peers) | 10% |
| Net margin · Quality | 26.9% | 83 (vs peers) | 6% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | 32.9% | 4 (on a fixed band) | 6% |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | 1.4% | 11 (on a fixed band) | 8% |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | -2.6% | 0 (on a fixed band) | 8% |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | 1.6x | 67 (vs peers) | 10% |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | 6.8x | 82 (on a fixed band) | 6% |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 3.2x | 100 (on a fixed band) | 4% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | 10.6x | 80 (vs peers) | 10% |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | 6.4x | 100 (vs peers) | 10% |
| FCF yield · Valuation | 3.1% | 38 (on a fixed band) | 8% |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | 2.7% | 39 (on a fixed band) | 6% |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | 89.2% | 44 (on a fixed band) | 4% |
Score groups
- Balance sheet78/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
- Growth6/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
- Quality60/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
- Returns41/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
- Valuation75/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
Memo
NATIONAL FUEL GAS COMPANY (NFG). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2026-06-30.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 2.3 bn USD in 2025; YoY growth 17.1%; net margin 26.9%; ROE 19.6%; net debt/EBITDA 1.6x.
The estimated value range is 68.15–108.84 USD per share (median of 4 methods, agreement: low); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 83.64 USD, the price of 76.54 USD leaves a potential of 9.3% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of 8.5% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
olivLaw score 57/100, methodological classification: neutral profile (score, margin of safety and method agreement together; not a judgement of the right price). Not investment advice.
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- ROIC: 13.0%
- Net margin: 26.9%
- Interest coverage: 6.8x
- Current ratio: 3.2x
- P/E (TTM): 10.6x
- EV/EBITDA: 6.4x
What contradicts it
- FCF conversion: 32.9%
- Revenue CAGR 3Y: 1.4%
- EPS CAGR 3Y: -2.6%
- The valuation methods diverge
Versus the vertical median
Natural Gas Distribution (SIC 4924) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 14 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LNGCheniere Energy, Inc. | 63.5 bn | 21.7 | 45.7% | 13.1% | +27.2% | +49% / +71% |
| CQPCheniere Energy Partners, L.P. | 30.5 bn | 9.3 | — | 28.1% | +23.6% | +16% / +2% |
| ATOAtmos Energy Corp | 29.4 bn | 20.7 | 9.8% | 28.5% | +12.9% | −1% / +53% |
| NFGNational Fuel Gas Company | 7.3 bn | 10.6 | 19.6% | 26.9% | +17.1% | −5% / +41% |
| NJRNew Jersey Resources Corporation | 5.6 bn | 15.2 | 14.5% | 24.0% | +9.9% | +15% / +30% |
| SRSpire Inc. | 5.3 bn | 14.9 | 10.3% | 13.9% | −4.5% | +2% / +48% |
| OGSONE Gas, Inc. | 5.2 bn | 17.5 | 8.7% | — | +42.5% | −2% / +43% |
| MDUMdu Resources Group Inc | 4.2 bn | 20.8 | 7.0% | 10.7% | +6.7% | −7% / +87% |
| NWNNorthwest Natural Holding Company | 2.2 bn | 17.1 | 8.3% | 9.7% | +11.8% | +4% / +40% |
| NFENew Fortress Energy Inc. | 1.2 bn | — | -533.9% | -148.7% | −36.2% | +234% / −89% |
| SLNGStabilis Solutions, Inc. | 71.2 m | — | -12.7% | -14.1% | −6.9% | −18% / −16% |
| CETYClean Energy Technologies, Inc. | 10.4 m | — | -76.3% | -245.9% | −63.8% | −53% / −96% |
| VGVenture Global, Inc. | — | 9.1 | 54.7% | 22.3% | +176.9% | +61% / unavailable |
| EEExcelerate Energy, Inc | — | 26.8 | — | — | +44.3% | +22% / +105% |
| UGPUltrapar Holdings Inc. | — | — | 16.5% | 1.8% | +5.9% | +36% / +10% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for NFG from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (USD)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | 43.26 Total return -41% · Per year -41% | 76.59 Total return 3% · Per year 3% | 115.54 Total return 54% · Per year 54% |
| 3 years | 39.39 Total return -42% · Per year -17% | 78.72 Total return 11% · Per year 4% | 130.74 Total return 82% · Per year 22% |
| 5 years | 35.86 Total return -43% · Per year -11% | 80.90 Total return 20% · Per year 4% | 147.94 Total return 113% · Per year 16% |
- Exit P/E± 19.68
- Net margin± 13.78
- Annual revenue growth± 11.66
- Annual dilution± 1.16
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
In brief
National Fuel Gas Company is an integrated energy company engaged in the production, gathering, transportation, storage and distribution of natural gas, with assets centred in western New York and Pennsylvania. It matters now because it is preparing to close its Ohio utility acquisition on October 1, 2026, which could roughly double its regulated gas utility rate base.
SWOT
Strengths
- The company has strong vertical integration from production through distribution, allowing shared resources and lower costs 1.
- Its asset base is concentrated in a region with proven resources and access to eastern and Canadian markets 1.
- It has a long dividend record and reported a dividend increase in 2026 3.
Weaknesses
- Upstream revenues are sensitive to gas prices, and recent quarterly results were lower than the prior year 13.
- The company depends on capital markets and credit ratings, so financing costs are sensitive to changes in conditions 1.
- A single upstream customer accounts for a significant share of revenue, creating a concentration risk 1.
Opportunities
- If data centre and power generation projects are completed, they could expand the company's transport capacity 23.
- The Ohio acquisition could add a large regulated asset base and diversify the company geographically 2.
- A discretionary land acquisition programme in Tioga County could extend inventory depth and long-term development options 3.
Threats
- Climate policy in New York and other states could limit gas demand or impose additional costs 1.
- Organised opposition to the gas industry could delay or block pipeline and expansion projects 1.
- Higher interest rates or a credit rating downgrade could raise the cost of financing the acquisition and existing debt 12.
Risks
- Financing the Ohio acquisitionmedium
The deal relies on long-term debt and equity financing, and market conditions could affect the cost or availability of that capital 2.
- Climate policy and regulationhigh
Laws such as the CLCPA could reduce gas demand or impose additional payments, affecting long-term revenues 1.
- Project delaysmedium
Permits and approvals may be slow or refused, which could delay in-service dates and the revenues tied to projects 1.
- Natural gas priceshigh
Price swings can strongly affect upstream revenues, although hedging partly offsets the effect 13.
- Customer concentrationmedium
One major upstream and transport customer represents a concentration risk, and non-renewal of contracts could reduce revenues 1.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- Rising demand from data centres and power generation could support transport projects and the results of the Pipeline and Storage segment 23.
- The Ohio acquisition could significantly expand the regulated base and support long-term growth in per-share earnings 23.
- The company has stated an intention to generate between $1.0 and $1.5 billion of free cash flow over three years, which could reduce debt and support dividends 3.
What would break the thesis
- If gas prices stay low, upstream revenues could be affected, and quarterly results have already shown a decline from the prior year 13.
- New York climate policy could reduce demand over the long term, especially if decarbonisation plans are applied 1.
- Integrating the acquisition and its substantial financing could pressure the balance sheet if expected benefits are delayed 23.
What to watch
- Closing of the Ohio acquisition and publication of fiscal 2027 guidanceQ4 2026
- PaPUC decision on the Pennsylvania rate increase requestQ4 2026
- Completion of the Tioga Pathway Projectlate calendar 2026
- Quarterly results and production versus the 420-430 Bcf guidancenext 10-K
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
The business
National Fuel Gas Company (NFG) is a New Jersey holding company, incorporated in 1902, that owns all of its operating subsidiaries. It reports three segments: Integrated Upstream and Gathering, Pipeline and Storage, and Utility, with activities centred on the Appalachian Basin and the Marcellus and Utica shales 1. According to its annual report for the fiscal year ended September 30, 2025, the Utility serves approximately 756,000 customers in western New York and northwestern Pennsylvania 1. The company had 2,322 full-time employees at that date 1.
The integrated structure lets the company share management, labour, facilities and support services across businesses, which it presents as a source of low costs and resilient margins. Proved reserves rose 5% from the prior year to 4,981 Bcfe 1. Production increased 9% in fiscal 2025 to 427 Bcfe 1.
Segments
Integrated Upstream and Gathering
The segment comprises Seneca Resources, which explores for and produces natural gas in Appalachia, and Midstream Company, which provides gathering services mainly to Seneca 1. It contributed net income of $324.7 million in fiscal 2025, the largest of the company's segments 1. Fiscal 2026 production is now expected to be 420-430 Bcf, a moderate reduction from earlier guidance 3.
Pipeline and Storage
Supply Corporation and Empire provide interstate transportation and storage services, and about 35% of the segment's revenues in 2025 came from services to other company segments 1. It contributed net income of $121.0 million in fiscal 2025 1. The Line N System Upgrade Project was expanded to 294,000 Dth per day, supported by a 20-year precedent agreement for 200,000 Dth per day 3.
Utility
The Utility segment serves approximately 756,000 customers and contributed net income of $83.2 million in fiscal 2025 1. New York rates follow a three-year plan with a 9.7% return on equity 1. A Pennsylvania rate increase request was filed in January 2026, with a decision generally anticipated after the suspension period ending October 2026 2.
Market context
The company operates in a natural gas market where demand is supported by data centres and power generation, particularly in Pennsylvania and New York 23. In its view, natural gas remains competitive on reliability and affordability relative to electrification and other energy sources 1. Utility volumes are seasonal, a effect largely mitigated by a weather normalization adjustment 1.
The market is also shaped by climate policy, notably New York's CLCPA, which could reduce gas demand if strict decarbonisation measures are adopted 1. The NYMEX gas price, assumed at $3.00 per MMBtu for the remaining months of fiscal 2026, remains a key driver of upstream revenues 3.
Trends
- Rising demand from data centrestailwind
The company states that transport projects serving new data centre and power generation sites in Pennsylvania and New York could support volume growth, especially through Line N 23.
- Climate policy and electrificationheadwind
New York legislation, including the CLCPA and restrictions on fossil fuel equipment in new buildings, could reduce long-term gas demand if expanded 1.
- Growing regulated rate basetailwind
The Ohio acquisition could double the company's regulated gas utility rate base, which could support earnings growth from regulated activities 23.
- Gas price volatility and financing costsmixed
Gas price swings can affect upstream revenues, and higher financing costs could make investment harder, although the company issued notes in June 2026 12.
Competitive position
In upstream, Seneca competes with major integrated and independent gas producers and marketers, including for mineral rights and leasehold interests 1. In transport, Supply Corporation competes with other northeast pipeline companies, but its position is strengthened by proximity to Marcellus and Utica supply and access to Canada 1.
In distribution, about 8% of small-volume customers buy from unregulated marketers, and competition also comes from bypass and electrification alternatives, particularly in New York 1. The company says it differentiates through flexible services for large commercial and industrial customers, the most exposed segment 1.
- Major integrated and independent natural gas producers and marketers
Upstream and marketing rivals with which Seneca competes for gas sales and for exploration and development rights 1.
- Other interstate pipeline companies in the northeast
Pipeline operators competing with Supply Corporation and Empire for growth in gas transport across the northeastern United States 1.
- Natural gas storage service providers
Companies offering storage services that compete with Supply Corporation for customers seeking supply flexibility 1.
- Electrification and geothermal alternatives
Technologies that replace gas for heating and are gaining ground, particularly in New York, according to the company 1.
Links, dependencies and risks
Who the company is tied to, from its own SEC filings (customers, suppliers, production, partners, competitors, countries, regulation), from the 5 %+ holders' statements (13D/13G) and from what other companies say about it. Click a node for its evidence; on a listed company the graph moves to it.
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News & filings
In the press
- National Fuel’s Dividend Record Remains Strong as Energy Markets ShiftYahoo Finance — News · 22 Sept 2026 · EN
The latest news item in our archive is from 22 Sept 2026; the newest SEC filing is from 14 Oct 2026. The press archive comes from the RSS feeds we follow and does not necessarily cover the latest event — the filings alongside do.
SEC filings
- Current report14 Oct 2026Regulation FD disclosure · Other events · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report01 Oct 2026Material agreement · Acquisition or disposition of assets · Creation of a direct financial obligation · Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report11 Aug 2026Other events · Financial statements and exhibits
- Quarterly report30 Jul 2026
- Current report30 Jul 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report29 Jul 2026Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report26 Jun 2026Other events
- Current report10 Jun 2026Other events · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report27 May 2026Other events
- Current report26 May 2026Other events · Financial statements and exhibits
Sources
- [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2025-09-30 · SEC / National Fuel Gas Company · 21 Nov 2025
- [2] Form 10-Q, quarter ended 2026-06-30 · SEC / National Fuel Gas Company · 30 Jul 2026
- [3] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / National Fuel Gas Company · 30 Jul 2026
Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.