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olivLaw · US equity research

Venture Global, Inc. VG

Natural Gas Distribution · SIC 4924 · Vertical: Natural Gas Distribution (SIC 4924)

12.00USD−7.69% · 1 dayClose 04 Nov 2026

Venture Global is a U.S. LNG exporter that integrates liquefaction, pipeline transport, shipping and regasification. The company has moved several projects into commercial operation, and its quarterly revenue rose sharply in the second quarter of 2026, making its business relevant to global energy markets. Revenue for the quarter ended June 30, 2026 reached 4.6 billion USD, and net income was 1417 million USD.

The AI analysis may be outdated: new filings came after its sources (see the «AI analysis» section).

At the close of 04 Nov 2026, Venture Global, Inc. (VG) stock was 12.00 USD (−7.69% on the day), with P/E 9.1 on diluted EPS of 1.31 USD over the last 12 months, dividend yield 0.30%, beta 0.82, 52-week range 5.92–17.53 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q2 2026): revenue of 4.6 bn USD (+47.6% YoY), net income of 1.4 bn USD (+198.3% YoY), diluted EPS 0.51 USD.

Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.

Market cap
unavailable
P/E (TTM)
9.1
Diluted EPS TTM 1.31 · TTM to 30 Jun 2026
E/P (TTM)
10.95%
TTM to 30 Jun 2026
Dividend yield
0.30%
DPS 12m 0.04
Beta (2y)
0.82
Volatility (1y) 76%
52-week range
5.9217.53

Price history

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Technical reading

RSI (14)
38.3
weak (30–45)
Bollinger (20, 2)
11.84 – 14.79
in the lower half of the band · %B 0.05 · band width 22.2%
SMA 50 / 200
13.75 / 12.76
mixed trend
MACD (12, 26, 9)
-0.07 / 0.00
MACD below signal

Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).

Performance

CompanyS&P 500vs S&P 500Vertical median
1 month−10.8%−2.0%−8.8 pp—
3 months−3.5%−2.2%−1.3 pp—
6 months0.0%+4.3%−4.3 pp—
Year to date+76.0%+10.6%+65.4 pp—
1 year+50.6%+10.5%+40.1 pp+2.8%
3 yearsunavailable+73.7%unavailable+41.4%
5 yearsunavailable+61.7%unavailable—
Max drawdown (1y)
−40.0%
27 Mar 2026 → 24 Jun 2026
Max drawdown (5y)
−75.3%
24 Jan 2025 → 16 Dec 2025
Compound annual growth (5y)
unavailable
S&P 500 +10.1%

Price returns, dividends excluded.

Quarterly results

Latest quarter: Q2 2026 · 30 Jun 2026

Revenue
4.6 bn USD
+47.6% YoY
Net income
1.4 bn USD
+198.3% YoY
Diluted EPS
0.51
+264.3% YoY
net / operating
31.0% / 47.8%

Quarterly margins

Quarterly statements · USD

Fiscal yearQ3 '24Q4 '24Q1 '25Q2 '25Q3 '25Q4 '25Q1 '26Q2 '26
Revenue926.0 m1.5 bn2.9 bn3.1 bn3.3 bn4.4 bn4.6 bn4.6 bn
Cost of revenue272.0 m414.0 m1.1 bn1.4 bn1.4 bn2.1 bn2.8 bn1.7 bn
Research & development156.0 m124.0 m182.0 m57.0 m53.0 m52.0 m46.0 m23.0 m
Operating income189.0 m594.0 m1.1 bn1.0 bn1.3 bn1.7 bn1.2 bn2.2 bn
Depreciation & amortisation89.0 m93.0 m216.0 m267.0 m218.0 m240.0 m251.0 m260.0 m
Interest expense128.0 m117.0 m276.0 m310.0 m421.0 m447.0 m444.0 m489.0 m
Pre-tax income-372.0 m1.2 bn668.0 m591.0 m637.0 m1.5 bn736.0 m1.8 bn
Income tax-78.0 m248.0 m151.0 m116.0 m87.0 m276.0 m111.0 m336.0 m
Net income-294.0 m990.0 m517.0 m475.0 m550.0 m1.2 bn625.0 m1.4 bn
Diluted EPS-0.150.38 ≈0.150.140.160.45 ≈0.190.51
Operating cash flow280.0 m ≈673.0 m1.1 bn1.5 bn ≈1.9 bn ≈2.1 bn763.0 m2.1 bn ≈
Capex3.8 bn ≈3.7 bn3.5 bn3.0 bn ≈3.3 bn ≈3.6 bn3.2 bn3.7 bn ≈
Dividends paid54.0 m ≈56.0 m190.0 m57.0 m ≈176.0 m ≈42.0 m180.0 m-91.0 m ≈

≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)

E/P over time

E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.

Today's P/E sits at the 33 percentile of its own 6-quarter history (min 7.5, median 16.9, max 30.0; quarters with earnings only).

Fiscal years

Fiscal year202320242025
Revenue7.9 bn5.0 bn13.8 bn
Revenue YoYunavailable−37.0%+176.9%
Net income3.6 bn1.7 bn2.7 bn
Net income YoYunavailable−51.7%+56.5%
Diluted EPS1.250.570.86
Diluted EPS YoYunavailable−54.4%+50.9%
net %45.8%35.1%19.8%
Free cash flow-3.5 bn-11.6 bn-6.8 bn

Reported results vs expectations

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Balance sheet & financial health

Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025

Cash
2.4 bn USD
Financial debt
34.2 bn USD
Net debt
31.9 bn USD
Equity
10.3 bn USD
Total assets
53.4 bn USD
Debt / equity
3.32x
Current ratio
0.93x
ROE
32.8%
ROA
5.6%
FCF margin
-49.4%

Financial statements (source on every figure)

Revenue and net income (USD)

Margins

Income statement · USD

Revenue
2023
7.9 bn
2024
5.0 bn
2025
13.8 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 02 Mar 2026verified

Cost of revenue
2023
1.7 bn
2024
1.4 bn
2025
5.9 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 02 Mar 2026verified

Gross profit
2023
6.2 bn ≈
2024
3.6 bn ≈
2025
7.8 bn ≈

SEC (XBRL)· 02 Mar 2026derived

Research & development
2023
490.0 m
2024
635.0 m
2025
344.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 02 Mar 2026verified

Operating income
2023
4.9 bn
2024
1.8 bn
2025
5.2 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 02 Mar 2026verified

Depreciation & amortisation
2023
277.0 m
2024
322.0 m
2025
941.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 02 Mar 2026verified

EBITDA
2023
5.1 bn ≈
2024
2.1 bn ≈
2025
6.1 bn ≈

SEC (XBRL)· 02 Mar 2026derived

Interest expense
2023
641.0 m
2024
584.0 m
2025
1.5 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 02 Mar 2026verified

Pre-tax income
2023
4.4 bn
2024
2.2 bn
2025
3.4 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 02 Mar 2026verified

Income tax
2023
816.0 m
2024
437.0 m
2025
630.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 02 Mar 2026verified

Net income
2023
3.6 bn
2024
1.7 bn
2025
2.7 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 02 Mar 2026verified

Diluted EPS
2023
1.25
2024
0.57
2025
0.86

SEC (XBRL)· 02 Mar 2026verified

Weighted average diluted shares
2023
2.1 bn
2024
2.6 bn
2025
2.6 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 02 Mar 2026verified

Dividend per share
2023
—
2024
—
2025
0.03

SEC (XBRL)· 02 Mar 2026verified

Balance sheet · USD

Cash
2023
5.9 bn
2024
3.6 bn
2025
2.4 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 02 Mar 2026verified

Receivables
2023
—
2024
364.0 m
2025
918.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 02 Mar 2026verified

Inventories
2023
—
2024
171.0 m
2025
253.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 02 Mar 2026verified

Current assets
2023
—
2024
4.6 bn
2025
4.0 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 02 Mar 2026verified

Total assets
2023
—
2024
43.5 bn
2025
53.4 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 02 Mar 2026verified

Accounts payable
2023
—
2024
1.5 bn
2025
737.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 02 Mar 2026verified

Short-term debt
2023
—
2024
190.0 m
2025
812.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 02 Mar 2026verified

Long-term debt
2023
—
2024
29.1 bn
2025
33.4 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 02 Mar 2026verified

Current liabilities
2023
—
2024
3.5 bn
2025
4.3 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 02 Mar 2026verified

Total liabilities
2023
—
2024
35.6 bn
2025
41.5 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 02 Mar 2026verified

Equity
2023
—
2024
6.4 bn
2025
10.3 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 02 Mar 2026verified

Cash flow · USD

Operating cash flow
2023
4.6 bn
2024
2.1 bn
2025
6.6 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 02 Mar 2026verified

Capex
2023
8.1 bn
2024
13.7 bn
2025
13.4 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 02 Mar 2026verified

Free cash flow
2023
-3.5 bn ≈
2024
-11.6 bn ≈
2025
-6.8 bn ≈

SEC (XBRL)· 02 Mar 2026derived

Investing cash flow
2023
-8.7 bn
2024
-14.2 bn
2025
-13.2 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 02 Mar 2026verified

Financing cash flow
2023
7.6 bn
2024
10.8 bn
2025
5.5 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 02 Mar 2026verified

Dividends paid
2023
164.0 m
2024
139.0 m
2025
465.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 02 Mar 2026verified

Computed indicators

Growth

Revenue growth (YoY)
176.9%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Revenue CAGR 3Y
unavailable
input data missing
Revenue CAGR 5Y
unavailable
input data missing
EBIT growth (YoY)
192.5%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Net income growth (YoY)
56.5%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Net income CAGR 3Y
unavailable
input data missing
Net income CAGR 5Y
unavailable
input data missing
EPS growth (YoY)
50.9%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
EPS CAGR 3Y
unavailable
input data missing
EPS CAGR 5Y
unavailable
input data missing
FCF growth (YoY)
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive

Profitability

Gross margin
53.5%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
EBITDA margin
43.3%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
EBIT margin
37.6%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Net margin
22.3%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
FCF margin
-41.2%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026

Returns

ROE
54.7%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
ROA
7.0%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
ROIC
12.0%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
ROCE
11.1%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Payout ratio (EPS)
2.7%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Payout ratio (FCF)
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive

Balance sheet

Net debt
38.7 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Net debt / EBITDA
5.3x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Debt / equity
4.9x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Interest coverage
3.5x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026

Liquidity

Current ratio
1.2x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Quick ratio
1.1x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Cash ratio
0.8x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026

Cash

Operating cash flow
6.8 bn USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Capital expenditure
13.8 bn USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Free cash flow
-7.0 bn USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
FCF conversion
-184.8%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Cash conversion
93.0%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026

Efficiency

Days sales outstanding
16 days
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Days inventory outstanding
11 days
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Days payables outstanding
33 days
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Cash conversion cycle
-6 days
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026

Market and valuation

Market capitalisation
unavailable
input data missing
Enterprise value
unavailable
input data missing
Market cap / net income TTM
unavailable
input data missing
P/E (TTM)
9.1x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Earnings yield
11.0%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
P/B
unavailable
input data missing
P/S
unavailable
input data missing
EV/EBITDA
unavailable
input data missing
EV/EBIT
unavailable
input data missing
EV/Sales
unavailable
input data missing
P/FCF
unavailable
input data missing
FCF yield
unavailable
input data missing
Dividend yield
0.3%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Shareholder yield (distributions)
unavailable
input data missing

Risk

Altman Z
unavailable
input data missing

Valuation

olivLaw classification

Insufficient data
What is missing
  • score weight coverage: 54.2% of at least 60%

A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.

Closing price

12.00 USD

04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series

Market cap: unavailable

Key indicators

Market capitalisation
unavailable
input data missing
P/E (TTM)
9.1x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
P/B
unavailable
input data missing
EV/EBITDA
unavailable
input data missing
ROE
54.7%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Net margin
22.3%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Revenue growth (YoY)
176.9%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Dividend yield
0.3%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026

Coverage and freshness

31/37 reporting lines present
Latest full fiscal year: 2025
Latest reported period: 30 Jun 2026
Latest balance sheet date: 30 Jun 2026
Source: SEC (XBRL)published 11 Aug 2026
verified 349derived 28

Score by group

54% · Insufficient data

Estimated value range

Low
19.68
USD per share
Mid
22.76
USD per share
High
27.32
USD per share
Price: 12.00 USD
The price is below the range
Potential to the central value: 89.7% (value / price − 1)
Margin of safety: 47.3% (1 − price / value)
Agreement between methods: single method · 1 methods used · 1 independent bases

The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 19.68 – 27.32 USD.

Methods computed but outside the aggregate range: Dividend discount (DDM) (a small share of earnings is paid as dividends (capital returns through buybacks): the dividend model does not describe the value and stays outside the aggregate).

Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.

Method ranges (USD per share)

— — Mid · ▏ Price

Valuation methods

  • DCF (discounted cash flow)unavailable · input data missing
  • Peers: EV/EBITDAunavailable · input data missing
  • Peers: P/E19.68 – 27.32 (Mid 22.76)
    10 companies used · median multiple 17.3x · quartiles 15.0x – 20.8x
    ATO, CQP, EE, LNG, MDU, NFG, NJR, NWN, OGS, SR
  • Dividend discount (DDM)outside the aggregate0.39 – 0.53 (Mid 0.45)
    a small share of earnings is paid as dividends (capital returns through buybacks): the dividend model does not describe the value and stays outside the aggregate
Multiple comparisons use the SIC vertical: Natural Gas Distribution (SIC 4924)

Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.

Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)

Risk-free rate
4.3%
Equity risk premium
5.0%
Beta (default)
1.00
Cost of equity
9.3%
Terminal growth
2.5%

Factor scorecard

Insufficient data

Minimum-evidence gate: score weight coverage: 54.2% of at least 60%

FactorValueScoreWeight used
ROIC · Quality12.0%70 (vs peers)19%
Net margin · Quality22.3%67 (vs peers)12%
FCF conversion · Quality-184.8%0 (on a fixed band)12%
Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growthunavailableunavailable—
EPS CAGR 3Y · Growthunavailableunavailable—
Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet5.3x22 (vs peers)19%
Interest coverage · Balance sheet3.5x31 (on a fixed band)12%
Current ratio · Balance sheet1.2x32 (on a fixed band)8%
P/E (TTM) · Valuation9.1x100 (vs peers)19%
EV/EBITDA · Valuationunavailableunavailable—
FCF yield · Valuationunavailableunavailable—
Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returnsunavailableunavailable—
Payout ratio (FCF) · Returnsunavailableunavailable—

Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.

Score groups

  • Balance sheet27/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
  • Growth· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
  • Quality50/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
  • Returns· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
  • Valuation· partial100/100 · 1/3 factors with a value

A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.

Memo

VENTURE GLOBAL, INC. (VG). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2026-06-30.

Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 13.8 bn USD in 2025; YoY growth 176.9%; net margin 22.3%; ROE 54.7%; net debt/EBITDA 5.3x.

The estimated value range is 19.68–27.32 USD per share (median of 1 methods, agreement: single method); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 22.76 USD, the price of 12.00 USD leaves a potential of 89.7% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of 47.3% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.

Insufficient data for a verdict (score weight coverage: 54.2% of at least 60%).

Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.

What supports the thesis

  • ROIC: 12.0%
  • P/E (TTM): 9.1x
  • The price is below the estimated value range

What contradicts it

  • FCF conversion: -184.8%
  • Net debt / EBITDA: 5.3x

Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): Revenue CAGR 3Y, EPS CAGR 3Y, EV/EBITDA, FCF yield, Shareholder yield (distributions), Payout ratio (FCF).

Versus the vertical median

Natural Gas Distribution (SIC 4924) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 14 companies

Multiples and returns vs the median

P/E
9.1x
vertical median 17.3x
below median (−47.3%)
EV/EBITDA
—
vertical median 10.3x
P/S
—
vertical median 2.6x
P/B
—
vertical median 1.6x
ROE
54.7%
vertical median 9.3%
above median (+490.2%)
Net margin
22.3%
vertical median 11.9%
above median (+87.3%)
EBIT margin
37.6%
vertical median 22.8%
above median (+64.7%)
Revenue YoY
176.9%
vertical median 10.8%
above median (+1,531.1%)
Net debt/EBITDA
5.3x
vertical median 2.8x
above median (+89.6%)
Dividend yield
0.3%
vertical median 2.8%
below median (−89.4%)

Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)

Companies in the vertical

Market capP/EROENet marginRevenue YoY1A / 3A
LNGCheniere Energy, Inc.63.5 bn21.745.7%13.1%+27.2%+49% / +71%
CQPCheniere Energy Partners, L.P.30.5 bn9.3—28.1%+23.6%+16% / +2%
ATOAtmos Energy Corp29.4 bn20.79.8%28.5%+12.9%−1% / +53%
NFGNational Fuel Gas Company7.3 bn10.619.6%26.9%+17.1%−7% / +51%
NJRNew Jersey Resources Corporation5.6 bn15.214.5%24.0%+9.9%+15% / +30%
SRSpire Inc.5.3 bn14.910.3%13.9%−4.5%+2% / +48%
OGSONE Gas, Inc.5.2 bn17.58.7%—+42.5%−2% / +43%
MDUMdu Resources Group Inc4.2 bn20.87.0%10.7%+6.7%−7% / +87%
NWNNorthwest Natural Holding Company2.2 bn17.18.3%9.7%+11.8%+4% / +40%
NFENew Fortress Energy Inc.1.2 bn—-533.9%-148.7%−36.2%+234% / −89%
SLNGStabilis Solutions, Inc.71.2 m—-12.7%-14.1%−6.9%−18% / −16%
CETYClean Energy Technologies, Inc.10.4 m—-76.3%-245.9%−63.8%−53% / −96%
VGVenture Global, Inc.—9.154.7%22.3%+176.9%+51% / unavailable
EEExcelerate Energy, Inc—26.8——+44.3%+22% / +105%
UGPUltrapar Holdings Inc.——16.5%1.8%+5.9%+36% / +10%

1- and 3-year price returns: for VG from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.

olivLaw engine forecast

The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.

The engine has no published run for this company yet.

Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)

Illustrative scenarios

Scenarios are not available. input data missing

AI analysis

AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 11 Aug 2026; since then the company filed 8-K (07 Oct 2026 · results).

In brief

Venture Global is a U.S. LNG exporter that integrates liquefaction, pipeline transport, shipping and regasification. The company has moved several projects into commercial operation, and its quarterly revenue rose sharply in the second quarter of 2026, making its business relevant to global energy markets. Revenue for the quarter ended June 30, 2026 reached 4.6 billion USD 2, and net income was 1417 million USD 2.

SWOT

Strengths

  • The company has long-term fixed-price contracts with creditworthy counterparties, which give predictable revenue. Its modular model and in-house construction have allowed rapid commissioning of projects 1.
  • Vertical integration through pipelines, shipping and regasification gives direct access to markets with limited transport options 1.
  • Revenue growth in the second quarter of 2026 shows production and sales have reached an important level 2.

Weaknesses

  • The operating history is limited, and results can vary widely between periods, especially because of commissioning sales 1.
  • Operating and maintenance costs rose in 2026 with the commissioning and ramp-up of Plaquemines production 2.
  • The company depends on regulatory approvals and project financing, and delays could postpone expected revenue 12.

Opportunities

  • Expansions of existing projects can use current infrastructure, which could reduce capital cost per unit 1.
  • New five-year contracts and growing capacity could diversify the customer base and sales portfolio 2.
  • European and other import markets with limited transport capacity could become important customers 1.

Threats

  • Volatility in spot LNG prices could reduce revenue from commissioning sales 1.
  • Legal challenges to export authorizations could delay projects or change authorized volumes 12.
  • Higher insurance costs and inflation could affect operating margins in the future 1.

Risks

  • Uncertain profitability before CODhigh

    Profitability depends on commissioning sales, which end at COD. If these sales decline, revenue could be lower than expected 1.

  • LNG price volatilityhigh

    Revenue from commissioning sales and excess capacity depends on spot prices, which have varied significantly 1.

  • Regulatory approvalshigh

    Projects require FERC and DOE approvals, and some authorizations are under appeal. Delays or restrictions could change project timelines 12.

  • Construction cost overrunsmedium

    Project costs could rise because of external factors, inflation and labor availability, which could weigh on returns 1.

  • Debt burden and financing costsmedium

    The company has raised significant project financing, and interest costs could weigh on net income if market conditions worsen 2.

Investment thesis

What would need to be true (bull case)

  • If Plaquemines and CP2 production keeps growing and long-term contracts perform as planned, revenue could become more stable and predictable.
  • Vertical integration and the modular model could provide competitive costs, which could support margins over the long term.
  • Demand for LNG to diversify energy supply could support new contracts and existing expansions.

What would break the thesis

  • If spot prices fall or commissioning volumes shrink, revenue and profitability could fall below expectations.
  • Legal challenges to export authorizations and approval delays could postpone revenue from new projects.
  • Debt levels and interest costs could limit financial flexibility if market conditions deteriorate.

What to watch

  • Production and sales trends at Plaquemines and timing of COD for the next phasesQ3 2026
  • Delivery of the remaining LNG tankers and utilization of the fleet2026

Products, market & competition

AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 11 Aug 2026; since then the company filed 8-K (07 Oct 2026 · results).

The business

Venture Global is a long-term, low-cost provider of U.S. LNG sourced from North American natural gas basins. Its integrated assets cover the LNG supply chain: production, gas transportation, shipping and regasification 1. Its 'design-one, build-many' model aims to build modular, standardized facilities quickly and at lower cost. The Calcasieu Project reached COD on April 15, 2025, and Plaquemines entered production and growing sales in 2025 and 2026 12.

Development also includes complementary infrastructure: the Blackfin pipeline, a fleet of LNG tankers being expanded, regasification capacity in the United Kingdom and Greece, and a carbon capture and sequestration plan in Louisiana 1. Bolt-on expansions at existing sites could reduce capital cost per tonne, but depend on incremental gas supply and regulatory approvals 1.

Segments

Liquefaction and export projects

This activity covers the Calcasieu, Plaquemines and CP2 projects and their expansions. Total expected capacity of the projects, including developments, is 194 mtpa, and Calcasieu has an expected annualized capacity of 11.2 mtpa 1. Plaquemines increased volumes sold in 2026 and CP2 is under construction 2.

Sales and shipping

The sales and shipping segment includes VG Commodities, which sells LNG under SPAs and excess capacity, and the tanker fleet. The company took delivery of several tankers in 2025 and signed five-year sales agreements in 2026 12. This segment became a reportable segment in 2025 1.

Regasification and infrastructure

The company has secured regasification capacity in the United Kingdom and Greece to supply LNG and regasified gas directly into the European market 1. The Blackfin pipeline, developed with a Texas partner, complements project supply 1.

Market context

The LNG market rests on global natural gas demand, reference prices such as Henry Hub, TTF and JKM, and available liquefaction capacity. The weighted average price of LNG sold was 9.80 USD/MMBtu in 2025 1 and 9.64 USD/MMBtu in the first six months of 2026 2. Company revenue depends heavily on the U.S. gas-linked price component, so Henry Hub movements affect results directly.

Demand for U.S. LNG is supported by the need for energy diversification and for replacing more carbon-intensive sources such as coal and oil, as the company describes 1. Spot market dynamics and shipping costs can change the revenue from commissioning sales 1.

Trends

  • Plaquemines production ramptailwind

    LNG volumes sold from Plaquemines have grown as commissioning advances, lifting quarterly revenue 2. If production stabilizes, revenue could become more predictable.

  • Spot price volatilityheadwind

    Revenue from commissioning sales depends on spot prices and the timing of contract signing, so profitability can vary significantly from one period to the next 1.

  • Regulatory approvals for expansionsmixed

    Project expansions need approvals from FERC and DOE, and some authorizations are under legal appeal 12. If approvals are delayed, expansion timelines could be affected.

  • Financing and refinancingmixed

    In 2026 the company repaid and refinanced several debt instruments, including new notes and credit facilities, which strengthened its capital structure 2. Interest costs nonetheless remain significant.

Competitive position

The provided texts do not describe competitors in detail. The company presents itself as a low-cost provider that reaches the market faster than traditional projects, which suggests competition with other North American LNG exporters 1.

The declared advantage lies in its modular model, supply chain integration and long-term contracts. Competitors with larger projects or their own fleets could influence prices and market share 1.

  • Other North American LNG exporters

    The sources refer to North American LNG exporters as a competitive reference without naming them.

  • Traditional LNG projects

    The company compares its costs and timelines with traditional LNG projects, which use fewer and larger liquefaction trains.

  • Global LNG suppliers with transport assets

    Competition may come from operators controlling shipping and regasification in import markets.

  • North American natural gas producers

    Gas suppliers can influence feed gas costs and supply contract terms.

News & filings

SEC filings

  • Current report15 Oct 2026
    Material agreement · Other events · Financial statements and exhibits
  • Current report08 Oct 2026
    Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
  • Current report07 Oct 2026
    Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
  • Current report02 Sept 2026
    Material agreement · Creation of a direct financial obligation · Other events · Financial statements and exhibits
  • Current report11 Aug 2026
    Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
  • Quarterly report11 Aug 2026
  • Current report08 Jul 2026
    Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
  • Current report26 Jun 2026
    Material agreement · Creation of a direct financial obligation · Other events · Financial statements and exhibits
  • Current report11 Jun 2026
    Material agreement · Creation of a direct financial obligation · Financial statements and exhibits
  • Current report02 Jun 2026
    Item 2.04 · Other events · Financial statements and exhibits

Sources

  1. [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · SEC / Venture Global, Inc. · 02 Mar 2026
  2. [2] Form 10-Q, quarter ended 2026-06-30 · SEC / Venture Global, Inc. · 11 Aug 2026

Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.