olivLaw · US equity research
Covista Inc. CVSA
Services-Educational Services · SIC 8200 · Vertical: Services-Educational Services (SIC 8200)
Covista Inc. is America's largest healthcare educator, operating through five accredited institutions including Chamberlain University, Walden University and the Ross and AUC medical and veterinary schools. With a persistent healthcare workforce shortage in focus, the company closed fiscal 2026 with revenue of $1,954.1 million, up 9.3%, and guided to fiscal 2027 revenue growth of roughly 5% to 7%.
The AI analysis may be outdated: new filings came after its sources (see the «AI analysis» section).
At the close of 04 Nov 2026, Covista Inc. (CVSA) stock was 124.19 USD (+1.35% on the day), with market capitalisation 4.1 bn USD, P/E 17.0 on diluted EPS of 7.32 USD over the last 12 months, dividend yield 0.00%, beta 0.65, 52-week range 89.36–140.98 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q1 2027): revenue of 511.5 m USD (+10.7% YoY), net income of 67.4 m USD (+9.0% YoY), diluted EPS 1.95 USD.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
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Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 44.0
- weak (30–45)
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 122.78 – 133.11
- in the lower half of the band · %B 0.14 · band width 8.1%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 127.29 / 119.76
- mixed trend
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- -0.58 / 0.14
- MACD below signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | S&P 500 | vs S&P 500 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | −1.0% | −2.0% | +1.0 pp | — |
| 3 months | −3.7% | −2.2% | −1.5 pp | — |
| 6 months | +7.7% | +4.3% | +3.4 pp | — |
| Year to date | +20.0% | +10.6% | +9.5 pp | — |
| 1 year | +34.7% | +10.5% | +24.2 pp | −30.6% |
| 3 years | +125.0% | +73.7% | +51.3 pp | −18.2% |
| 5 years | +289.8% | +61.7% | +228.1 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
Latest quarter: Q1 2027 · 30 Sept 2026
Quarterly margins
Quarterly statements · USD
| Fiscal year | Q2 '25 | Q3 '25 | Q4 '25 | Q1 '26 | Q2 '26 | Q3 '26 | Q4 '26 | Q1 '27 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 447.7 m | 466.1 m | 457.1 m | 462.3 m | 503.4 m | 487.0 m | 501.4 m | 511.5 m |
| Cost of revenue | 186.6 m | 199.9 m | 198.9 m | 200.8 m | 205.4 m | 210.7 m | 216.7 m | 220.8 m |
| SG&A | 156.9 m | 175.2 m | 180.9 m | 175.7 m | 182.8 m | 184.1 m | 188.1 m | 192.6 m |
| Operating income | 103.9 m | 90.5 m | 76.9 m | 85.5 m | 111.1 m | 91.3 m | 95.4 m | 98.0 m |
| Interest expense | 13.9 m | 13.1 m | 10.9 m | 11.1 m | 10.9 m | 13.6 m | 9.8 m | 9.9 m |
| Pre-tax income | 92.2 m | 79.3 m | 68.6 m | 76.9 m | 101.9 m | 77.9 m | 88.4 m | 89.5 m |
| Income tax | 21.0 m | 18.5 m | 14.1 m | 15.8 m | 25.7 m | 20.0 m | 16.2 m | 18.0 m |
| Net income | 75.9 m | 60.8 m | 54.2 m | 61.8 m | 76.4 m | 41.6 m | 71.7 m | 67.4 m |
| Diluted EPS | 1.98 | 1.59 | 1.44 ≈ | 1.67 | 2.11 | 1.20 | 2.06 ≈ | 1.95 |
| Operating cash flow | -19.0 m ≈ | 207.9 m ≈ | 59.7 m | 130.5 m | 29.7 m ≈ | 186.2 m ≈ | 124.0 m | 114.0 m |
| Capex | 10.7 m ≈ | 10.2 m ≈ | 19.0 m | 16.0 m | 14.6 m ≈ | 20.2 m ≈ | 26.8 m | 37.6 m |
| Share repurchases | 40.9 m ≈ | 72.4 m ≈ | 66.7 m | 7.6 m | 164.8 m ≈ | 67.5 m ≈ | 0 | 81.0 m |
≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Today's P/E sits at the 36 percentile of its own 28-quarter history (min 4.6, median 18.7, max 54.3; quarters with earnings only).
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 1.0 bn | 866.4 m | 899.2 m | 1.4 bn | 1.5 bn | 1.6 bn | 1.8 bn | 2.0 bn |
| Revenue YoY | +5.6% | −14.5% | +3.8% | +53.7% | +5.0% | +9.2% | +12.9% | +9.3% |
| Net income | 95.2 m | -85.3 m | 70.0 m | 311.0 m | 93.4 m | 136.8 m | 237.1 m | 251.6 m |
| Net income YoY | +181.8% | −189.7% | unavailable | +344.1% | −70.0% | +46.5% | +73.3% | +6.1% |
| Diluted EPS | 1.60 | -1.58 | 1.36 | 6.43 | 2.05 | 3.39 | 6.18 | 7.04 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | +196.3% | −198.8% | unavailable | +372.8% | −68.1% | +65.4% | +82.3% | +13.9% |
| net % | 9.4% | -9.8% | 7.8% | 22.5% | 6.4% | 8.6% | 13.3% | 12.9% |
| Free cash flow | 147.3 m | 68.1 m | 152.3 m | -20.5 m | 165.9 m | 246.9 m | 287.6 m | 392.7 m |
Reported results vs expectations
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Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2026 · 30 Jun 2026
- Cash
- 406.3 m USD
- Financial debt
- 662.9 m USD
- Net debt
- 256.5 m USD
- Equity
- 1.4 bn USD
- Total assets
- 3.0 bn USD
- Debt / equity
- 0.46x
- Current ratio
- 1.09x
- ROE
- 17.5%
- ROA
- 8.7%
- FCF margin
- 20.1%
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (USD)
Margins
Income statement · USD
| Line | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 899.2 m | 1.4 bn | 1.5 bn | 1.6 bn | 1.8 bn | 2.0 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 06 Aug 2026verified |
| Cost of revenue | 457.9 m | 659.8 m | 648.5 m | 698.5 m | 771.4 m | 833.7 m | SEC (XBRL)· 06 Aug 2026verified |
| Gross profit | 441.3 m ≈ | 722.1 m ≈ | 802.3 m ≈ | 886.1 m ≈ | 1.0 bn ≈ | 1.1 bn ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 06 Aug 2026derived |
| SG&A | 292.5 m | 566.5 m | 586.0 m | 633.0 m | 672.0 m | 730.7 m | SEC (XBRL)· 06 Aug 2026verified |
| Operating income | 110.4 m | 76.7 m | 168.2 m | 217.1 m | 341.5 m | 383.4 m | SEC (XBRL)· 06 Aug 2026verified |
| Interest expense | 41.4 m | 129.3 m | 63.1 m | 63.7 m | 52.3 m | 45.4 m | SEC (XBRL)· 06 Aug 2026verified |
| Pre-tax income | 75.8 m | -51.5 m | 112.0 m | 163.9 m | 298.5 m | 345.1 m | SEC (XBRL)· 06 Aug 2026verified |
| Income tax | 12.3 m | -15.5 m | 10.3 m | 26.2 m | 65.8 m | 77.7 m | SEC (XBRL)· 06 Aug 2026verified |
| Net income | 70.0 m | 311.0 m | 93.4 m | 136.8 m | 237.1 m | 251.6 m | SEC (XBRL)· 06 Aug 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | 1.36 | 6.43 | 2.05 | 3.39 | 6.18 | 7.04 | SEC (XBRL)· 06 Aug 2026verified |
| Weighted average diluted shares | 51.6 m | 48.4 m | 45.6 m | 40.3 m | 38.3 m | 35.7 m | SEC (XBRL)· 06 Aug 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Revenue − Cost of revenue.
Balance sheet · USD
| Line | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 476.4 m | 347.0 m | 272.2 m | 219.3 m | 199.6 m | 406.3 m | SEC (XBRL)· 06 Aug 2026verified |
| Receivables | 41.0 m | 79.0 m | 100.1 m | 124.1 m | 143.4 m | 166.9 m | SEC (XBRL)· 06 Aug 2026verified |
| Current assets | 1.5 bn | 557.1 m | 480.3 m | 418.1 m | 416.2 m | 652.4 m | SEC (XBRL)· 06 Aug 2026verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | 283.7 m | 289.9 m | 244.6 m | 248.5 m | 256.1 m | 302.6 m | SEC (XBRL)· 06 Aug 2026verified |
| Goodwill | 310.2 m | 961.3 m | 961.3 m | 961.3 m | 961.3 m | 961.3 m | SEC (XBRL)· 06 Aug 2026verified |
| Intangibles (excl. goodwill) | 137.5 m | 873.6 m | 812.3 m | 776.7 m | 765.5 m | 754.3 m | SEC (XBRL)· 06 Aug 2026verified |
| Total assets | 3.1 bn | 3.0 bn | 2.8 bn | 2.7 bn | 2.8 bn | 3.0 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 06 Aug 2026verified |
| Accounts payable | 42.4 m | 57.1 m | 81.8 m | 102.6 m | 105.0 m | 124.8 m | SEC (XBRL)· 06 Aug 2026verified |
| Short-term debt | 3.0 m | 0 | — | — | 0 | 5.1 m | SEC (XBRL)· 06 Aug 2026verified |
| Long-term debt | 1.1 bn | 838.9 m | 695.1 m | 648.7 m | 552.7 m | 657.8 m | SEC (XBRL)· 06 Aug 2026verified |
| Current liabilities | 408.8 m | 423.6 m | 431.2 m | 487.7 m | 507.9 m | 596.8 m | SEC (XBRL)· 06 Aug 2026verified |
| Total liabilities | 1.8 bn | 1.5 bn | 1.4 bn | 1.4 bn | 1.3 bn | 1.6 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 06 Aug 2026verified |
| Equity | 1.3 bn † | 1.5 bn † | 1.5 bn † | 1.4 bn † | 1.4 bn † | 1.4 bn † | SEC (XBRL)· 06 Aug 2026verified |
† equity attributable to the parent's shareholders: in these years the issuer no longer reports the total including non-controlling interests.
Cash flow · USD
| Line | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | 192.2 m | 10.6 m | 191.9 m | 295.8 m | 337.9 m | 470.4 m | SEC (XBRL)· 06 Aug 2026verified |
| Capex | 39.9 m | 31.1 m | 26.0 m | 48.9 m | 50.3 m | 77.7 m | SEC (XBRL)· 06 Aug 2026verified |
| Free cash flow | 152.3 m ≈ | -20.5 m ≈ | 165.9 m ≈ | 246.9 m ≈ | 287.6 m ≈ | 392.7 m ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 06 Aug 2026derived |
| Investing cash flow | -56.7 m | -551.8 m | 23.7 m | -47.9 m | -41.9 m | -83.7 m | SEC (XBRL)· 06 Aug 2026verified |
| Financing cash flow | 676.5 m | -424.5 m | -288.5 m | -301.8 m | -316.0 m | -180.1 m | SEC (XBRL)· 06 Aug 2026verified |
| Share repurchases | 100.0 m | 120.0 m | 123.1 m | 262.0 m | 213.1 m | 239.9 m | SEC (XBRL)· 06 Aug 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating cash flow − Capex.
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
Score: 79 / 100
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 4.1 bn USD
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
- Valuation71
- Balance sheet60
- Quality78
- Growth93
- Returns100
Estimated value range
The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 47.83 – 285.68 USD.
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Method ranges (USD per share)
— — Mid · ▏ Price
Valuation methods
- DCF (discounted cash flow)177.97 – 285.68 (Mid 219.08)WACC 8.8% · starting FCFF 389.0 m USD · terminal value share of EV 75%The WACC × g sensitivity gives the method's bounds; these are not probabilities.Reverse DCF: starting growth implied by the price (fading linearly to terminal growth, everything else fixed): -12.4%
- Peers: EV/EBITDAunavailable · input data missing
- Peers: P/E47.83 – 130.60 (Mid 90.69)15 companies used · median multiple 12.4x · quartiles 6.5x – 17.8xAPEI, IH, LAUR, LFS, LGCY, LINC, LOPE, LRN, PRDO, PXED, STG, STRA, TAL, VSA, YOUL
- Dividend discount (DDM)unavailable · the base of the ratio is not positive
Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 4.3%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 9.3%
- Terminal growth
- 2.5%
Factor scorecard
Neutral profile · Score 79/100
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | 17.8% | 65 (vs peers) | 14% |
| Net margin · Quality | 12.8% | 79 (vs peers) | 8% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | 137.9% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 8% |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | 10.4% | 87 (on a fixed band) | 11% |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | 50.9% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 11% |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | 8.9x | 100 (on a fixed band) | 8% |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 0.8x | 1 (on a fixed band) | 6% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | 17.0x | 47 (vs peers) | 14% |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| FCF yield · Valuation | 8.6% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 11% |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | 7.6% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 8% |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet60/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
- Growth93/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
- Quality78/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
- Returns· partial100/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
- Valuation71/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
Covista Inc. (CVSA). Latest full fiscal year: 2026; data up to 2026-09-30.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 2.0 bn USD in 2026; YoY growth 9.3%; net margin 12.8%; ROE 17.9%.
The estimated value range is 112.90–208.14 USD per share (median of 2 methods, agreement: low); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 154.89 USD, the price of 124.19 USD leaves a potential of 24.7% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of 19.8% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
olivLaw score 79/100, methodological classification: neutral profile (score, margin of safety and method agreement together; not a judgement of the right price). Groups assessed only in part: returns. Not investment advice.
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- Net margin: 12.8%
- FCF conversion: 137.9%
- Revenue CAGR 3Y: 10.4%
- EPS CAGR 3Y: 50.9%
- Interest coverage: 8.9x
- FCF yield: 8.6%
- Shareholder yield (distributions): 7.6%
What contradicts it
- Current ratio: 0.8x
- The valuation methods diverge
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): Net debt / EBITDA, EV/EBITDA, Payout ratio (FCF).
Versus the vertical median
Services-Educational Services (SIC 8200) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 39 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDUNew Oriental Education & Technology Group Inc. | 80.7 bn | 169.7 | 12.4% | 8.4% | +15.5% | +2% / −36% |
| LAURLaureate Education, Inc. | 4.8 bn | 12.9 | 34.1% | 20.3% | +8.6% | +14% / +168% |
| CVSACovista Inc. | 4.1 bn | 17.0 | 17.9% | 12.8% | +9.3% | +35% / +125% |
| COE51Talk Online Education Group | 4.1 bn | — | — | -17.6% | +88.6% | −73% / +43% |
| LOPEGrand Canyon Education, Inc. | 3.9 bn | 18.2 | 31.0% | 19.6% | +7.1% | −4% / +10% |
| LRNStride, Inc. | 3.3 bn | 10.9 | 20.9% | 13.2% | +4.7% | +25% / +31% |
| DAOYoudao, Inc. | 2.5 bn | 159.2 | — | 1.6% | +9.6% | +105% / +397% |
| PRDOPerdoceo Education Corp | 1.9 bn | 10.9 | 17.6% | 20.6% | +24.2% | +7% / +72% |
| STRAStrategic Education, Inc. | 1.7 bn | 12.4 | 8.2% | 10.5% | +4.0% | −5% / −16% |
| YQ17 Education & Technology Group Inc. | 1.5 bn | — | -46.5% | -145.6% | −41.5% | −41% / +14% |
| UTIUniversal Technical Institute, Inc | 1.2 bn | 36.3 | 10.5% | 3.9% | +14.0% | −3% / +91% |
| PXEDPhoenix Education Partners, Inc. | 794.4 m | 9.5 | 30.1% | 8.7% | +1.0% | −36% / unavailable |
| APEIAmerican Public Education, Inc. | 776.2 m | 17.5 | 15.6% | 6.8% | +3.9% | +22% / +439% |
| LINCLincoln Educational Services Corporation | 637.9 m | 28.0 | 11.9% | 4.0% | +17.8% | −2% / +117% |
| JZJianzhi Education Technology Group Company Limited | 522.3 m | — | -44.4% | -22.4% | −70.6% | −98% / −100% |
| GOTUGaotu Techedu Inc. | 373.9 m | — | -20.8% | -5.3% | +40.9% | −0% / −9% |
| IHiHuman Inc. | 245.2 m | 22.8 | 10.0% | 11.8% | −8.7% | −60% / −59% |
| FEDUFour Seasons Education (Cayman) Inc. | 210.5 m | 46.6 | 6.8% | 12.1% | +7.6% | −30% / +13% |
| LXEHLixiang Education Holding Co. Ltd. | 155.2 m | — | -83.1% | -395.4% | −1.9% | −63% / −99% |
| LGCYLegacy Education Inc. | 118.1 m | 14.0 | 19.5% | 11.4% | +24.8% | −12% / unavailable |
| EEIQEpicQuest Education Group International Limited | 93.6 m | — | -34.8% | -27.2% | +9.6% | −23% / −81% |
| VSAVisionSys AI Inc | 81.8 m | 0.3 | — | 164,963.8% | −99.9% | −97% / −100% |
| CHGGChegg, Inc | 71.1 m | — | -30.7% | -17.2% | −39.0% | −34% / −94% |
| AMBOAmbow Education Holding Ltd. | 62.3 m | — | -2.9% | -2.6% | +0.8% | −61% / −10% |
| LFSLEIFRAS Co., Ltd. | 53.1 m | 18.5 | 23.7% | 3.7% | unavailable | −60% / unavailable |
1- and 3-year price returns: for CVSA from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (USD)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | 82.14 Total return -34% · Per year -34% | 144.83 Total return 17% · Per year 17% | 217.61 Total return 75% · Per year 75% |
| 3 years | 89.51 Total return -28% · Per year -10% | 176.63 Total return 42% · Per year 12% | 289.98 Total return 133% · Per year 33% |
| 5 years | 97.55 Total return -21% · Per year -5% | 215.42 Total return 73% · Per year 12% | 386.41 Total return 211% · Per year 25% |
- Exit P/E± 44.16
- Net margin± 30.91
- Annual revenue growth± 24.01
- Annual dilution± 2.60
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 06 Aug 2026; since then the company filed 8-K (29 Oct 2026 · results), 10-Q (29 Oct 2026).
In brief
Covista Inc. is America's largest healthcare educator, operating through five accredited institutions including Chamberlain University, Walden University and the Ross and AUC medical and veterinary schools. With a persistent healthcare workforce shortage in focus, the company closed fiscal 2026 with revenue of $1,954.1 million, up 9.3%, and guided to fiscal 2027 revenue growth of roughly 5% to 7%.
SWOT
Strengths
- The company is the largest healthcare educator in the U.S. and has an extensive network of students and alumni, giving it scale and visibility.
- Growth in revenue, enrollment and adjusted EBITDA margin shows the ability to convert demand into financial results.
- High residency placement rates for medical school graduates support the reputation of the programs.
Weaknesses
- Heavy dependence on federal student aid makes revenue sensitive to regulatory change.
- Post-licensure nursing enrollment declined in fiscal 2026, a weakness in an important segment.
- Marketing and student acquisition costs have risen, which could reduce returns if demand weakens.
Opportunities
- The U.S. healthcare workforce shortage could support sustained demand for nursing and health programs.
- New campuses and recently launched programs could expand access and revenue if enrollment follows plan.
- Partnerships with health systems and technology providers could create direct employment paths for graduates.
Threats
- Stricter oversight by regulators or the Department of Education could limit institutional eligibility for federal programs.
- Litigation, investigations and negative publicity could damage reputation and enrollment.
- Competition from online universities and new schools could pressure pricing and student acquisition costs.
Risks
- Dependence on Title IVhigh
Most revenue comes from federal student aid programs, so a restriction of eligibility would have significant effects on the company 1.
- Liability and litigationhigh
The company is subject to audits, investigations and lawsuits, and their outcomes could include fines, repayments or operating restrictions 1.
- Letters of creditmedium
Authorities could require additional security, and if it exceeds the credit limit the company could need an amendment to its credit agreement 1.
- Decline in post-licensure enrollmentmedium
A fall in post-licensure nursing enrollment could limit Chamberlain's growth if management does not reverse it.
- Debt and refinancinglow
The company refinanced its debt and extended its revolving credit line, but financing costs and market conditions could still affect future results.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- If demand for medical staff stays high, Covista could keep growing through Walden and the Chamberlain pre-licensure programs.
- Revenue growth and a higher adjusted EBITDA margin could reflect operating efficiency that supports fiscal 2027 guidance.
- Health-system partnerships and campus expansion could open new sources of enrollment.
What would break the thesis
- If federal student aid rules tighten, revenue could fall quickly given the heavy weight of Title IV programs.
- A decline in post-licensure nursing enrollment could signal weaker demand in an important segment.
- Ongoing litigation and investigations could bring unforeseen costs or restrictions on operations.
What to watch
- Delivery against fiscal 2027 revenue and adjusted EPS guidance2027
- Trend in Chamberlain post-licensure enrollmentQ1 2027
- Opening of the new Cincinnati and Salt Lake City campuses2027
- Developments in litigation and federal Title IV regulationnext 10-K
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 06 Aug 2026; since then the company filed 8-K (29 Oct 2026 · results), 10-Q (29 Oct 2026).
The business
Covista, formerly Adtalem Global Education, frames its mission around opening access to education in nursing, medicine, veterinary medicine and the social and behavioral sciences. The company has three reportable segments: Chamberlain, offering degree and certificate programs in nursing and health professions; Walden, offering mostly online programs for working adults; and the medical and veterinary schools, comprising AUC, RUSM and RUSVM. Its current 'Purpose at Scale' strategy aims to expand access to healthcare education and help address the U.S. healthcare workforce shortage, built on four principles: operational excellence, platform extension, employer integration and technology focus 1.
The revenue model relies heavily on federal student financial aid. Covista's Title IV institutions collectively receive 78% of their revenue from Title IV programs, making regulation a central factor for the whole company 1.
In fiscal 2026 Covista reported higher student enrollment and revenue across all three segments while continuing to repay debt and repurchase shares. It also announced two employer collaborations with health systems, including Advocate Health, to build direct pipelines from study to medical practice 2.
Segments
Chamberlain
Chamberlain generated $750.2 million in revenue in fiscal 2026, up 3.4%. Growth came mainly from higher tuition rates and pre-licensure enrollment, while post-licensure enrollment declined during the year 1.
Market context
The U.S. nursing education market includes more than 2,000 programs leading to RN licensure, and many traditional providers face capacity limits on new enrollment. The online adult market is more competitive but continues to grow as demand for higher education among working professionals expands 1.
The medical and veterinary education market depends on students gaining U.S. residency positions. The residency placement rate for first-time eligible AUC graduates reached 98% in 2026, which supports the appeal of these programs 1.
Trends
- Healthcare workforce shortagetailwind
Demand for healthcare workers and the shortage of clinical staff support demand for Covista's programs, particularly in nursing and health professions.
- Federal regulatory pressureheadwind
Changes to Title IV rules and loan regulations could narrow enrollment or delay tuition payments, and a stricter enforcement pace could weigh on revenue.
- Online education for adultsmixed
Demand for flexible online study aimed at working professionals favors Walden, but it also attracts new competitors.
- AI in educationtailwind
AI certificates developed with Google Cloud could expand the offering if student and employer demand keeps growing.
Competitive position
In nursing, Chamberlain competes with four-year universities, community colleges and smaller schools, while in post-licensure programs it faces more than 700 institutions offering RN-BSN and more than 600 offering MSN 1.
Walden competes with both comprehensive universities and narrower schools offering only a few programs, and the market is fragmented and constantly changing 1.
- Community colleges and four-year universities
Compete on pre-licensure nursing programs, where their limited capacity may leave room for providers such as Chamberlain.
- Comprehensive online universities
Compete with Walden for working adults seeking online bachelor's or master's degrees.
- Specialized post-licensure nursing schools
Compete on RN-BSN and MSN programs, where the number of providers is large.
- Other Caribbean medical schools
Compete with AUC and RUSM for students seeking a medical degree outside the U.S.
Links, dependencies and risks
Who the company is tied to, from its own SEC filings (customers, suppliers, production, partners, competitors, countries, regulation), from the 5 %+ holders' statements (13D/13G) and from what other companies say about it. Click a node for its evidence; on a listed company the graph moves to it.
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News & filings
In the press
No news in our archive over the last 180 days.
SEC filings
- Quarterly report29 Oct 2026
- Current report29 Oct 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Proxy statement02 Oct 2026
- Current report23 Sept 2026Material agreement · Creation of a direct financial obligation · Financial statements and exhibits
- Annual report06 Aug 2026
- Current report06 Aug 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report28 Jul 2026Departure or appointment of officers · Financial statements and exhibits
- Quarterly report07 May 2026
- Current report07 May 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report09 Apr 2026Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
Sources
- [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2026-06-30 · SEC / Covista Inc. · 06 Aug 2026
- [2] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / Covista Inc. · 06 Aug 2026
Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.