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olivLaw · US equity research

New Oriental Education & Technology Group Inc. EDU

Services-Educational Services · SIC 8200 · Vertical: Services-Educational Services (SIC 8200)

52.07USD+3.46% · 1 dayClose 04 Nov 2026

New Oriental is a Chinese educational services provider offering test preparation courses, non-academic tutoring, intelligent learning systems and overseas study consulting, complemented by private label products and livestreaming e-commerce through East Buy. For the fiscal year ended May 31, 2026, total net revenues reached US$5,661.3 million, and the company remains a benchmark of private education in a strictly regulated environment.

The AI analysis may be outdated: new filings came after its sources (see the «AI analysis» section).

At the close of 04 Nov 2026, New Oriental Education & Technology Group Inc. (EDU) stock was 52.07 USD (+3.46% on the day), with market capitalisation 80.7 bn USD, P/E 61.3 on diluted EPS of 0.85 USD over the last 12 months, dividend yield 0.12%, beta 0.48, 52-week range 44.44–63.51 USD.

Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.

Market cap
80.7 bn USD
shares as of 31 May 2026
P/E (TTM)
61.3
Diluted EPS TTM 0.85 · TTM to 31 May 2012
E/P (TTM)
1.63%
TTM to 31 May 2012
Dividend yield
0.12%
DPS 12m 0.06
Beta (2y)
0.48
Volatility (1y) 37%
52-week range
44.4463.51

Price history

Loading chart…

Technical reading

RSI (14)
39.8
weak (30–45)
Bollinger (20, 2)
47.77 – 64.90
in the lower half of the band · %B 0.25 · band width 30.4%
SMA 50 / 200
56.50 / 54.13
mixed trend
MACD (12, 26, 9)
-1.76 / -0.80
MACD below signal

Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).

Performance

CompanyS&P 500vs S&P 500Vertical median
1 month−7.5%−1.1%−6.4 pp—
3 months−8.5%−0.5%−8.1 pp—
6 months−7.5%+4.4%−11.9 pp—
Year to date−5.4%+12.3%−17.7 pp—
1 year−9.9%+13.5%−23.4 pp−30.6%
3 years−21.6%+76.4%−98.0 pp−13.1%
5 years+155.2%+63.7%+91.6 pp—
Max drawdown (1y)
−30.0%
03 Feb 2026 → 25 Jun 2026
Max drawdown (5y)
−62.9%
22 Nov 2021 → 14 Mar 2022
Compound annual growth (5y)
+20.6%
S&P 500 +10.4%

Price returns, dividends excluded.

Quarterly results

ESEF annual reports carry no quarters: the results are annual (below).

E/P over time

E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.

Fiscal years

Fiscal year20192020202120222023202420252026
Revenue3.1 bn3.6 bn4.3 bn3.1 bn3.0 bn4.3 bn4.9 bn5.7 bn
Revenue YoY+26.5%+15.6%+19.5%−27.4%−3.5%+43.9%+13.6%+15.5%
Net income238.1 m413.3 m334.4 m-1.2 bn177.3 m309.6 m371.7 m475.2 m
Net income YoY−19.6%+73.6%−19.1%−455.2%unavailable+74.6%+20.1%+27.8%
Diluted EPSunavailableunavailableunavailableunavailableunavailableunavailableunavailableunavailable
Diluted EPS YoYunavailableunavailableunavailableunavailableunavailableunavailableunavailableunavailable
net %7.7%11.5%7.8%-38.2%5.9%7.2%7.6%8.4%
Free cash flow536.5 m494.9 m700.9 m-1.4 bn828.0 m873.3 m654.7 m780.2 m

Reported results vs expectations

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Balance sheet & financial health

Fiscal year 2026 · 31 May 2026

Cash
1.8 bn USD
Financial debt
unavailable USD
Net debt
unavailable USD
Equity
4.3 bn USD
Total assets
8.8 bn USD
Debt / equity
unavailable
Current ratio
1.50x
ROE
11.5%
ROA
5.7%
FCF margin
13.8%

Financial statements (source on every figure)

Revenue and net income (USD)

Margins

Income statement · USD

Revenue
2024
4.3 bn
2025
4.9 bn
2026
5.7 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 22 Sept 2026verified

Cost of revenue
2024
2.1 bn
2025
2.2 bn
2026
2.6 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 22 Sept 2026verified

Gross profit
2024
2.3 bn ≈
2025
2.7 bn ≈
2026
3.1 bn ≈

SEC (XBRL)· 22 Sept 2026derived

Operating income
2024
350.4 m
2025
428.3 m
2026
643.3 m

SEC (XBRL)· 22 Sept 2026verified

Depreciation & amortisation
2024
100.6 m
2025
139.8 m
2026
171.7 m

SEC (XBRL)· 22 Sept 2026verified

EBITDA
2024
451.1 m ≈
2025
568.1 m ≈
2026
815.0 m ≈

SEC (XBRL)· 22 Sept 2026derived

Interest expense
2024
298.0 k
2025
311.0 k
2026
28.0 k

SEC (XBRL)· 22 Sept 2026verified

Pre-tax income
2024
493.8 m
2025
536.4 m
2026
730.5 m

SEC (XBRL)· 22 Sept 2026verified

Income tax
2024
109.7 m
2025
146.3 m
2026
196.1 m

SEC (XBRL)· 22 Sept 2026verified

Net income
2024
309.6 m
2025
371.7 m
2026
475.2 m

SEC (XBRL)· 22 Sept 2026verified

Weighted average diluted shares
2024
1.7 bn
2025
1.6 bn
2026
1.6 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 22 Sept 2026verified

Dividend per share
2024
—
2025
0.06
2026
0.06

SEC (XBRL)· 22 Sept 2026derived

Balance sheet · USD

Cash
2024
1.4 bn
2025
1.6 bn
2026
1.8 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 22 Sept 2026verified

Receivables
2024
29.7 m
2025
33.6 m
2026
37.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 22 Sept 2026verified

Inventories
2024
92.8 m
2025
80.9 m
2026
105.8 m

SEC (XBRL)· 22 Sept 2026verified

Current assets
2024
5.4 bn
2025
5.2 bn
2026
5.8 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 22 Sept 2026verified

Property, plant & equipment, net
2024
508.0 m
2025
767.3 m
2026
880.1 m

SEC (XBRL)· 22 Sept 2026verified

Goodwill
2024
104.0 m
2025
43.8 m
2026
46.6 m

SEC (XBRL)· 22 Sept 2026verified

Intangibles (excl. goodwill)
2024
18.7 m
2025
13.0 m
2026
7.8 m

SEC (XBRL)· 22 Sept 2026verified

Total assets
2024
7.5 bn
2025
7.8 bn
2026
8.8 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 22 Sept 2026verified

Accounts payable
2024
105.7 m
2025
80.5 m
2026
126.9 m

SEC (XBRL)· 22 Sept 2026verified

Long-term debt
2024
—
2025
—
2026
—

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Sept 2021verified

Current liabilities
2024
3.0 bn
2025
3.3 bn
2026
3.9 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 22 Sept 2026verified

Total liabilities
2024
3.5 bn
2025
3.9 bn
2026
4.5 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 22 Sept 2026verified

Equity
2024
4.0 bn
2025
4.0 bn
2026
4.3 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 22 Sept 2026verified

Shares outstanding at year end
2024
1.6 bn
2025
1.6 bn
2026
1.5 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 22 Sept 2026verified

Cash flow · USD

Operating cash flow
2024
1.1 bn
2025
896.6 m
2026
1.0 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 22 Sept 2026verified

Capex
2024
249.4 m
2025
241.9 m
2026
246.9 m

SEC (XBRL)· 22 Sept 2026verified

Free cash flow
2024
873.3 m ≈
2025
654.7 m ≈
2026
780.2 m ≈

SEC (XBRL)· 22 Sept 2026derived

Investing cash flow
2024
-1.2 bn
2025
-93.4 m
2026
-457.7 m

SEC (XBRL)· 22 Sept 2026verified

Financing cash flow
2024
-160.4 m
2025
-585.0 m
2026
-380.2 m

SEC (XBRL)· 22 Sept 2026verified

Dividends paid
2024
—
2025
98.2 m
2026
96.4 m

SEC (XBRL)· 22 Sept 2026verified

Share repurchases
2024
62.9 m
2025
445.5 m
2026
230.9 m

SEC (XBRL)· 22 Sept 2026verified

Computed indicators

Growth

Revenue growth (YoY)
15.5%
computed by olivLawFY 2026
Revenue CAGR 3Y
23.6%
computed by olivLawFY 2023 → FY 2026
Revenue CAGR 5Y
5.8%
computed by olivLawFY 2021 → FY 2026
EBIT growth (YoY)
50.2%
computed by olivLawFY 2026
Net income growth (YoY)
27.8%
computed by olivLawFY 2026
Net income CAGR 3Y
38.9%
computed by olivLawFY 2023 → FY 2026
Net income CAGR 5Y
7.3%
computed by olivLawFY 2021 → FY 2026
EPS growth (YoY)
unavailable
input data missing
EPS CAGR 3Y
unavailable
input data missing
EPS CAGR 5Y
unavailable
input data missing
FCF growth (YoY)
19.2%
computed by olivLawFY 2026

Profitability

Gross margin
54.6%
computed by olivLawFY 2026
EBITDA margin
14.4%
computed by olivLawFY 2026
EBIT margin
11.4%
computed by olivLawFY 2026
Net margin
8.4%
computed by olivLawFY 2026
FCF margin
13.8%
computed by olivLawFY 2026

Returns

ROE
12.4%
computed by olivLawFY 2026 · balance sheet at 31 May 2026
ROA
5.7%
computed by olivLawFY 2026 · balance sheet at 31 May 2026
ROIC
unavailable
input data missing
ROCE
13.1%
computed by olivLawFY 2026 · balance sheet at 31 May 2026
Payout ratio (EPS)
unavailable
input data missing
Payout ratio (FCF)
12.4%
computed by olivLawFY 2026

Balance sheet

Net debt
unavailable
input data missing
Net debt / EBITDA
unavailable
input data missing
Debt / equity
unavailable
input data missing
Interest coverage
22,973.3x
computed by olivLawFY 2026

Liquidity

Current ratio
1.5x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 31 May 2026
Quick ratio
1.5x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 31 May 2026
Cash ratio
0.5x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 31 May 2026

Cash

Operating cash flow
1.0 bn USD
computed by olivLawFY 2026
Capital expenditure
246.9 m USD
computed by olivLawFY 2026
Free cash flow
780.2 m USD
computed by olivLawFY 2026
FCF conversion
164.2%
computed by olivLawFY 2026
Cash conversion
126.0%
computed by olivLawFY 2026

Efficiency

Days sales outstanding
2 days
computed by olivLawFY 2026 · balance sheet at 31 May 2026
Days inventory outstanding
13 days
computed by olivLawFY 2026 · balance sheet at 31 May 2026
Days payables outstanding
15 days
computed by olivLawFY 2026 · balance sheet at 31 May 2026
Cash conversion cycle
1 days
computed by olivLawFY 2026 · balance sheet at 31 May 2026

Market and valuation

Market capitalisation
80.7 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 31 May 2026
Enterprise value
unavailable
input data missing
Market cap / net income TTM
169.7x
computed by olivLawFY 2026
P/E (TTM)
169.7x
computed by olivLawFY 2026
Earnings yield
0.6%
computed by olivLawFY 2026
P/B
20.2x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 31 May 2026
P/S
14.2x
computed by olivLawFY 2026 · balance sheet at 31 May 2026
EV/EBITDA
unavailable
input data missing
EV/EBIT
unavailable
input data missing
EV/Sales
unavailable
input data missing
P/FCF
103.4x
computed by olivLawFY 2026 · balance sheet at 31 May 2026
FCF yield
1.0%
computed by olivLawFY 2026 · balance sheet at 31 May 2026
Dividend yield
0.1%
computed by olivLawFY 2026
Shareholder yield (distributions)
0.4%
computed by olivLawFY 2026 · balance sheet at 31 May 2026

1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.

Valuation

olivLaw classification

Neutral profile

Score: 54 / 100

A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.

Closing price

52.07 USD

04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series

Market cap: 80.7 bn USD

Key indicators

Market capitalisation
80.7 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 31 May 2026
P/E (TTM)
169.7x
computed by olivLawFY 2026
P/B
20.2x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 31 May 2026
EV/EBITDA
unavailable
input data missing
ROE
12.4%
computed by olivLawFY 2026 · balance sheet at 31 May 2026
Net margin
8.4%
computed by olivLawFY 2026
Revenue growth (YoY)
15.5%
computed by olivLawFY 2026
Dividend yield
0.1%
computed by olivLawFY 2026

Coverage and freshness

33/37 reporting lines present
Latest full fiscal year: 2026
Latest reported period: 31 May 2026
Latest balance sheet date: 31 May 2026
Share count (cover of the latest filing), as of: 31 May 2026
Source: SEC (XBRL)published 22 Sept 2026
verified 520derived 6

Score by group

  • Valuation5
  • Returns43
  • Quality80
  • Balance sheet83
  • Growth100

Estimated value range

Low
1.63
USD per share
Mid
2.41
USD per share
High
3.17
USD per share
Price: 52.07 USD
The price is above the range
Potential to the central value: -95.4% (value / price − 1)
Margin of safety: -2,063.2% (1 − price / value)
Agreement between methods: low · 2 methods used · 2 independent bases

The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 0.82 – 5.24 USD.

Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.

Method ranges (USD per share)

— — Mid · ▏ Price

Valuation methods

  • DCF (discounted cash flow)unavailable · net debt missing: EV cannot be bridged to equity (missing debt is not zero)
  • Peers: EV/EBITDAunavailable · net debt missing: EV cannot be bridged to equity (missing debt is not zero)
  • Peers: P/E2.45 – 5.24 (Mid 3.88)
    16 companies used · median multiple 12.6x · quartiles 8.0x – 17.1x
    APEI, CVSA, IH, LAUR, LFS, LGCY, LINC, LOPE, LRN, PRDO, PXED, STG, STRA, TAL, VSA, YOUL
  • Dividend discount (DDM)0.82 – 1.10 (Mid 0.94)
Multiple comparisons use the SIC vertical: Services-Educational Services (SIC 8200)

Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.

Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)

Risk-free rate
4.3%
Equity risk premium
5.0%
Beta (default)
1.00
Cost of equity
9.3%
Terminal growth
2.5%

Factor scorecard

Neutral profile · Score 54/100

FactorValueScoreWeight used
ROIC · Qualityunavailableunavailable—
Net margin · Quality8.4%61 (vs peers)10%
FCF conversion · Quality164.2%100 (on a fixed band)10%
Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth23.6%100 (on a fixed band)14%
EPS CAGR 3Y · Growthunavailableunavailable—
Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheetunavailableunavailable—
Interest coverage · Balance sheet22,973.3x100 (on a fixed band)10%
Current ratio · Balance sheet1.5x58 (on a fixed band)7%
P/E (TTM) · Valuation169.7x0 (vs peers)17%
EV/EBITDA · Valuationunavailableunavailable—
FCF yield · Valuation1.0%12 (on a fixed band)14%
Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns0.4%6 (on a fixed band)10%
Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns12.4%100 (on a fixed band)7%

Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.

Score groups

  • Balance sheet83/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
  • Growth· partial100/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
  • Quality80/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
  • Returns43/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
  • Valuation5/100 · 2/3 factors with a value

A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.

Memo

NEW ORIENTAL EDUCATION & TECHNOLOGY GROUP INC. (EDU). Latest full fiscal year: 2026; data up to 2026-05-31.

Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 5.7 bn USD in 2026; YoY growth 15.5%; net margin 8.4%; ROE 12.4%.

The estimated value range is 1.63–3.17 USD per share (median of 2 methods, agreement: low); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 2.41 USD, the price of 52.07 USD leaves a potential of -95.4% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of -2,063.2% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.

olivLaw score 54/100, methodological classification: neutral profile (score, margin of safety and method agreement together; not a judgement of the right price). Groups assessed only in part: growth. Not investment advice.

Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.

What supports the thesis

  • FCF conversion: 164.2%
  • Revenue CAGR 3Y: 23.6%
  • Interest coverage: 22,973.2x
  • Payout ratio (FCF): 12.4%

What contradicts it

  • P/E (TTM): 169.7x
  • FCF yield: 1.0%
  • Shareholder yield (distributions): 0.4%
  • The price is above the estimated value range
  • The valuation methods diverge

Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): ROIC, EPS CAGR 3Y, Net debt / EBITDA, EV/EBITDA.

Versus the vertical median

Services-Educational Services (SIC 8200) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 39 companies

Multiples and returns vs the median

P/E
169.7x
vertical median 14.0x
above median (+1,115.1%)
EV/EBITDA
—
vertical median 8.1x
P/S
14.2x
vertical median 1.5x
above median (+865.5%)
P/B
20.2x
vertical median 2.7x
above median (+652.7%)
ROE
12.4%
vertical median 8.2%
above median (+52.4%)
Net margin
8.4%
vertical median 3.0%
above median (+177.0%)
EBIT margin
11.4%
vertical median 1.5%
above median (+653.9%)
Revenue YoY
15.5%
vertical median 4.7%
above median (+231.3%)
Net debt/EBITDA
—
vertical median -0.5x
Dividend yield
0.1%
vertical median 2.1%
below median (−94.4%)

Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)

Companies in the vertical

Market capP/EROENet marginRevenue YoY1A / 3A
EDUNew Oriental Education & Technology Group Inc.80.7 bn169.712.4%8.4%+15.5%−10% / −22%
LAURLaureate Education, Inc.4.8 bn12.934.1%20.3%+8.6%+14% / +168%
CVSACovista Inc.4.1 bn17.017.9%12.8%+9.3%+34% / +118%
COE51Talk Online Education Group4.1 bn——-17.6%+88.6%−73% / +43%
LOPEGrand Canyon Education, Inc.3.8 bn16.135.9%21.9%+7.1%−4% / +10%
LRNStride, Inc.3.3 bn10.920.9%13.2%+4.7%+25% / +31%
NAMIJinxin Technology Holding Company2.6 bn—-89.7%-22.8%+6.1%−89% / unavailable
DAOYoudao, Inc.2.5 bn159.2—1.6%+9.6%+105% / +397%
PRDOPerdoceo Education Corp1.9 bn10.917.6%20.6%+24.2%+7% / +72%
STRAStrategic Education, Inc.1.7 bn12.48.2%10.5%+4.0%−5% / −16%
YQ17 Education & Technology Group Inc.1.5 bn—-46.5%-145.6%−41.5%−41% / +14%
UTIUniversal Technical Institute, Inc1.2 bn36.310.5%3.9%+14.0%−3% / +91%
PXEDPhoenix Education Partners, Inc.794.4 m9.530.1%8.7%+1.0%−36% / unavailable
APEIAmerican Public Education, Inc.776.2 m17.515.6%6.8%+3.9%+22% / +439%
LINCLincoln Educational Services Corporation637.9 m28.011.9%4.0%+17.8%−2% / +117%
JZJianzhi Education Technology Group Company Limited522.3 m—-44.4%-22.4%−70.6%−98% / −100%
GOTUGaotu Techedu Inc.373.9 m—-20.8%-5.3%+40.9%−0% / −9%
IHiHuman Inc.245.2 m22.810.0%11.8%−8.7%−60% / −59%
FEDUFour Seasons Education (Cayman) Inc.210.5 m46.66.8%12.1%+7.6%−30% / +13%
LXEHLixiang Education Holding Co. Ltd.155.2 m—-83.1%-395.4%−1.9%−63% / −99%
LGCYLegacy Education Inc.118.1 m14.019.5%11.4%+24.8%−12% / unavailable
EEIQEpicQuest Education Group International Limited93.6 m—-34.8%-27.2%+9.6%−23% / −81%
VSAVisionSys AI Inc81.8 m0.3—164,963.8%−99.9%−97% / −100%
CHGGChegg, Inc71.1 m—-30.7%-17.2%−39.0%−34% / −94%
AMBOAmbow Education Holding Ltd.62.3 m—-2.9%-2.6%+0.8%−61% / −10%

1- and 3-year price returns: for EDU from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.

olivLaw engine forecast

The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.

The engine has no published run for this company yet.

Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)

Illustrative scenarios

Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.

Bear
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Base
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Bull
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Nothing is saved.

Estimated price (USD)

Estimated priceBearBaseBull
1 years
34.03
Total return -35% · Per year -35%
59.88
Total return 15% · Per year 15%
89.82
Total return 73% · Per year 73%
3 years
40.36
Total return -22% · Per year -8%
79.19
Total return 52% · Per year 15%
129.34
Total return 148% · Per year 35%
5 years
47.87
Total return -8% · Per year -2%
104.73
Total return 101% · Per year 15%
186.25
Total return 258% · Per year 29%
What moves the 3-year price the most
  • Exit P/E± 19.80
  • Net margin± 13.86
  • Annual revenue growth± 10.34
  • Annual dilution± 1.16

AI analysis

AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 22 Sept 2026; since then the company filed 6-K (28 Oct 2026), 6-K (13 Oct 2026), 6-K (08 Oct 2026).

In brief

New Oriental is a Chinese educational services provider offering test preparation courses, non-academic tutoring, intelligent learning systems and overseas study consulting, complemented by private label products and livestreaming e-commerce through East Buy. For the fiscal year ended May 31, 2026, total net revenues reached US$5,661.3 million, and the company remains a benchmark of private education in a strictly regulated environment.

SWOT

Strengths

  • The New Oriental brand is strong in China and underpins most of the schools and learning centers 1.
  • The large physical network, combined with online platforms, gives a flexible OMO model 1.
  • A large, carefully selected teaching staff, with recruitment and training systems, supports teaching quality 1.

Weaknesses

  • Dependence on a single geographic market, China, exposes the company to local policy changes 1.
  • Teacher and rental costs are significant and can weigh on margins 1.
  • The structure relying on variable interest entities gives weaker operational control than direct ownership 1.

Opportunities

  • Expanding non-academic tutoring and smart learning devices could add new revenue sources 1.
  • Growth in e-commerce through East Buy and private label products could diversify revenues 1.
  • Integrating online acquisitions could bring more enrollments in smaller cities 1.

Threats

  • Changes to private education rules could restrict services and force further closures 1.
  • Price competition could cut course fees and affect profitability 1.
  • International tensions could weigh on demand for services tied to studying abroad 1.

Risks

  • Private education regulationhigh

    The interpretation and implementation of PRC rules can change quickly, and adjustments may restrict academic services 1.

  • Variable interest entity structurehigh

    Operational control relies on contractual arrangements, and authorities could challenge their compliance, which could affect the group 1.

  • Dependence on the brandmedium

    The company's value depends on maintaining the New Oriental brand, and a failure in quality or reputation could reduce enrollments 1.

  • Course fee pressuremedium

    If attracting students requires significant fee reductions, revenues and profitability could decline 1.

  • Listing and share price volatilitylow

    The company's securities may experience large price swings, and negative analyst reports could influence trading 1.

Investment thesis

What would need to be true (bull case)

  • If revenue growth continues and diversification into online and private label products deepens, the company could recover from losses caused by regulation.
  • The physical network and strong brand could offer an advantage over smaller competitors, especially if the OMO model lowers costs.
  • Growth in e-commerce and private label products could add revenues that are independent of education.

What would break the thesis

  • Regulation could keep evolving and restrict academic services again, which would weigh on revenues.
  • The variable interest entity structure could be challenged, and a compliance failure could have severe effects.
  • Competitive pressure and dependence on the Chinese market could limit long-term growth.

What to watch

  • Trend in education and test preparation revenuesnext 10-K
  • East Buy division results and GMVQ1 2027
  • New private education regulations in China2027
  • Non-academic tutoring enrollments and smart device active usersnext 10-K

Products, market & competition

AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 22 Sept 2026; since then the company filed 6-K (28 Oct 2026), 6-K (13 Oct 2026), 6-K (08 Oct 2026).

The business

The company delivers a wide range of educational programs through a physical network of 75 schools and 1,459 learning centers in 69 cities in China, as well as through online platforms including Koolearn.com 1. Its OMO model combines classroom teaching with online components, and in lower-tier cities courses taught by teachers from top-tier cities are broadcast locally with on-site assistant lecturers 1. It also operates eight bookstores and works with 350 third-party distributors, with about 44,200 teachers 1.

In March 2024 the acquisition of East Buy's online education business was completed, and online test preparation is now recorded directly by New Oriental 1. The company ceased its K-9 Academic AST Services at the end of 2021 in compliance with regulations and closed some units, which changed the shape of the business 1.

The East Buy e-commerce division sells agricultural and other products through livestreaming, Taobao, its own app and shops on several platforms, and includes private label products under the East Buy brand 1. It is a smaller activity than education but has grown visibly within the company's revenues 1.

Segments

Education and test preparation

Educational services and test preparation generated US$4,006.8 million in fiscal 2026, or 70.8% of total net revenues, with about 1,173,000 test preparation enrollments, of which 601,000 were for overseas tests 1.

Private label products and livestreaming e-commerce

Private label products brought in US$684.9 million in fiscal 2026, while total East Buy GMV reached RMB10.2 billion across all sales channels 1.

Non-academic tutoring and intelligent learning

Non-academic tutoring recorded about 3,117,000 enrollments, and intelligent learning devices had 598,000 active paid users in fiscal 2026 1.

Market context

According to the company, demand for private education in China is supported by rising disposable income, urbanization and the need for education beyond the school curriculum 1. Revenues of US$5,661.3 million in fiscal 2026 indicate the size of the market in which the company operates 1.

The market is strongly shaped by government regulation, notably the Alleviating Burden Opinion, which prohibits academic institutions from raising funds through listings and bars foreign control of them 1.

Trends

  • Growth in education and online servicestailwind

    Total net revenues rose from US$4,313.6 million in fiscal 2024 to US$5,661.3 million in fiscal 2026, suggesting solid demand for services, with the East Buy online acquisition adding volume 1.

  • Regulation of academic educationheadwind

    The Alleviating Burden Opinion forced the company to cease K-9 academic services and close units, and regulations may be reinterpreted or changed 1.

  • OMO model and digital learningtailwind

    Combining the physical network with online platforms and smart devices could extend access to courses in smaller cities and lower long-term operating costs 1.

  • Volatility of e-commerce and consumer spendingmixed

    Livestreaming depends on consumer growth, the popularity of online shopping and the supply chain, factors that can vary and affect the division's results 1.

Competitive position

The company competes on course fees, brand reputation and teaching quality, and fees are also set relative to competitors' charges for similar courses 1. Competition is most felt in test preparation and non-academic tutoring 1.

The market is fragmented, and local firms and online providers can pressure prices and enrollments, especially in large cities where there are more options 1.

  • Local test preparation providers

    Compete on test preparation courses and on course fee levels, a factor the company itself highlights 1.

  • Online education platforms

    Compete through online courses and digital models that can attract the same students 1.

  • Overseas study consulting firms

    Compete in admissions and counseling services for studying abroad, a relevant area for the company 1.

  • Livestreaming e-commerce platforms

    Compete with East Buy for consumer attention and for sales through livestreaming and online shops 1.

News & filings

Sources

  1. [1] Form 20-F, fiscal year ended 2026-05-31 · SEC / New Oriental Education & Technology Group Inc. · 22 Sept 2026

Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.