olivLaw · US equity research
Lincoln Educational Services Corporation LINC
Services-Educational Services · SIC 8200 · Vertical: Services-Educational Services (SIC 8200)
Lincoln Educational Services is a career-oriented postsecondary education provider running 22 campuses in 12 states, training recent high school graduates and working adults in skilled trades, automotive, health sciences and information technology. The company is in a period of accelerating revenue and adjusted profit growth, in a context where demand for skilled trades remains strong.
At the close of 04 Nov 2026, Lincoln Educational Services Corporation (LINC) stock was 20.11 USD (−1.85% on the day), with market capitalisation 637.9 m USD, P/E 31.4 on diluted EPS of 0.64 USD over the last 12 months, dividend yield 0.90%, beta 0.87, 52-week range 17.80–55.68 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q2 2026): revenue of 142.6 m USD (+22.4% YoY), net income of 1.9 m USD (+25.2% YoY), diluted EPS 0.06 USD.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
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Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 32.6
- weak (30–45)
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 19.82 – 24.00
- in the lower half of the band · %B 0.07 · band width 19.1%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 23.23 / 35.82
- downtrend (price < SMA50 < SMA200)
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- -0.95 / -0.92
- MACD below signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | S&P 500 | vs S&P 500 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | −9.4% | −1.1% | −8.3 pp | — |
| 3 months | −53.3% | −0.5% | −52.8 pp | — |
| 6 months | −55.3% | +4.4% | −59.7 pp | — |
| Year to date | −16.7% | +12.3% | −29.0 pp | — |
| 1 year | +8.4% | +13.5% | −5.1 pp | −34.1% |
| 3 years | +130.4% | +76.4% | +53.9 pp | −16.5% |
| 5 years | +183.6% | +63.7% | +120.0 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
Latest quarter: Q2 2026 · 30 Jun 2026
Quarterly margins
Quarterly statements · USD
| Fiscal year | Q3 '24 | Q4 '24 | Q1 '25 | Q2 '25 | Q3 '25 | Q4 '25 | Q1 '26 | Q2 '26 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 114.4 m | 119.4 m | 117.5 m | 116.5 m | 141.4 m | 142.9 m | 144.0 m | 142.6 m |
| Cost of revenue | 48.1 m | 45.1 m | 47.4 m | 46.8 m | 57.3 m | 53.9 m | 58.4 m | 59.6 m |
| SG&A | 63.3 m | 62.1 m | 66.9 m | 67.1 m | 77.8 m | 71.2 m | 79.2 m | 79.6 m |
| Operating income | 5.8 m | 10.9 m | 3.4 m | 2.9 m | 6.3 m | 17.7 m | 6.4 m | 3.3 m |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 2.8 m ≈ | 3.0 m | 3.3 m | 4.3 m ≈ | 5.0 m ≈ | 6.5 m | 7.2 m | 7.4 m ≈ |
| Interest expense | 659.0 k | 672.0 k | 701.0 k | 813.0 k | 991.0 k | 889.0 k | 837.0 k | 1.1 m |
| Pre-tax income | 5.6 m | 10.6 m | 2.8 m | 2.1 m | 5.3 m | 15.9 m | 5.6 m | 2.3 m |
| Income tax | 1.7 m | 3.7 m | 882.0 k | 522.0 k | 1.5 m | 3.2 m | 1.2 m | 315.0 k |
| Net income | 4.0 m | 6.8 m | 1.9 m | 1.6 m | 3.8 m | 12.7 m | 4.4 m | 1.9 m |
| Diluted EPS | 0.13 | — | 0.06 | 0.05 | 0.12 | — | 0.14 | 0.06 |
| Operating cash flow | 5.6 m ≈ | 30.3 m | -8.4 m | 299.0 k ≈ | 23.9 m ≈ | 43.5 m | 4.6 m | 22.1 m ≈ |
| Capex | 19.4 m ≈ | 24.8 m | 19.9 m | 26.4 m ≈ | 21.9 m ≈ | 18.5 m | 14.6 m | 14.5 m ≈ |
| Share repurchases | 0 ≈ | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Today's P/E sits at the 94 percentile of its own 16-quarter history (min 3.1, median 6.6, max 67.5; quarters with earnings only).
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 263.2 m | 273.3 m | 293.1 m | 335.3 m | 348.3 m | 378.1 m | 440.1 m | 518.2 m |
| Revenue YoY | +0.5% | +3.9% | +7.2% | +14.4% | +3.9% | +8.6% | +16.4% | +17.8% |
| Net income | -11.5 m | 2.0 m | 48.6 m | 34.7 m | 12.6 m | 26.0 m | 9.9 m | 20.0 m |
| Net income YoY | unavailable | unavailable | +2,310.2% | −28.5% | −63.6% | +105.8% | −62.0% | +102.2% |
| Diluted EPS | -0.48 | 0.08 | 1.49 | 1.04 | 0.36 | 0.85 | 0.32 | 0.64 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | unavailable | unavailable | +1,762.5% | −30.2% | −65.4% | +136.1% | −62.4% | +100.0% |
| net % | -4.4% | 0.7% | 16.6% | 10.4% | 3.6% | 6.9% | 2.2% | 3.9% |
| Free cash flow | -6.4 m | -4.4 m | 17.9 m | 19.9 m | -8.1 m | -15.1 m | -27.6 m | -27.3 m |
Reported results vs expectations
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Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025
- Cash
- 28.5 m USD
- Financial debt
- 0 USD
- Net debt
- -28.5 m USD
- Equity
- 199.7 m USD
- Total assets
- 493.2 m USD
- Debt / equity
- 0.00x
- Current ratio
- 0.86x
- ROE
- 10.6%
- ROA
- 4.3%
- FCF margin
- -5.3%
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (USD)
Margins
Income statement · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 293.1 m | 335.3 m | 348.3 m | 378.1 m | 440.1 m | 518.2 m | SEC (XBRL)· 02 Mar 2026verified |
| Cost of revenue | 122.2 m | 138.9 m | 148.7 m | 162.3 m | 181.8 m | 205.4 m | SEC (XBRL)· 02 Mar 2026verified |
| Gross profit | 170.9 m ≈ | 196.4 m ≈ | 199.5 m ≈ | 215.8 m ≈ | 258.3 m ≈ | 312.9 m ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 02 Mar 2026derived |
| SG&A | 156.2 m | 168.9 m | 182.4 m | 209.1 m | 243.8 m | 282.9 m | SEC (XBRL)· 02 Mar 2026verified |
| Operating income | 14.8 m | 49.3 m | 16.3 m | 33.4 m | 15.2 m | 30.3 m | SEC (XBRL)· 02 Mar 2026verified |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 7.4 m | 7.1 m | 6.4 m | 6.6 m | 11.3 m | 19.2 m | SEC (XBRL)· 02 Mar 2026verified |
| EBITDA | 22.2 m ≈ | 56.4 m ≈ | 22.6 m ≈ | 40.0 m ≈ | 26.5 m ≈ | 49.5 m ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 02 Mar 2026derived |
| Interest expense | 1.3 m | 2.0 m | 160.0 k | 347.0 k | 2.6 m | 3.4 m | SEC (XBRL)· 02 Mar 2026verified |
| Pre-tax income | 13.5 m | 47.2 m | 16.4 m | 35.6 m | 14.7 m | 26.1 m | SEC (XBRL)· 02 Mar 2026verified |
| Income tax | -35.1 m | 12.5 m | 3.8 m | 9.6 m | 4.8 m | 6.1 m | SEC (XBRL)· 02 Mar 2026verified |
| Net income | 48.6 m | 34.7 m | 12.6 m | 26.0 m | 9.9 m | 20.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 02 Mar 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | 1.49 | 1.04 | 0.36 | 0.85 | 0.32 | 0.64 | SEC (XBRL)· 02 Mar 2026verified |
| Weighted average diluted shares | 24.7 m | 25.1 m | 25.9 m | 30.5 k | 30.9 k | 31.3 k | SEC (XBRL)· 02 Mar 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Revenue − Cost of revenue; Operating income + Depreciation & amortisation.
Balance sheet · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 38.0 m | 83.3 m | 46.1 m | 76.0 m | 59.3 m | 28.5 m | SEC (XBRL)· 02 Mar 2026verified |
| Receivables | 30.0 m | 26.2 m | 37.2 m | 35.7 m | 43.0 m | 36.9 m | SEC (XBRL)· 02 Mar 2026verified |
| Inventories | 2.4 m | 2.7 m | 2.6 m | 2.9 m | 3.1 m | 4.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 02 Mar 2026verified |
| Current assets | 74.2 m | 121.6 m | 114.1 m | 134.7 m | 111.3 m | 87.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 02 Mar 2026verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | 48.4 m | 23.1 m | 23.9 m | 50.9 m | 103.5 m | 171.6 m | SEC (XBRL)· 02 Mar 2026verified |
| Goodwill | 14.5 m | 14.5 m | 14.5 m | 10.7 m | 10.7 m | 10.7 m | SEC (XBRL)· 02 Mar 2026verified |
| Total assets | 245.2 m | 295.3 m | 291.6 m | 345.2 m | 436.6 m | 493.2 m | SEC (XBRL)· 02 Mar 2026verified |
| Accounts payable | 15.7 m | 12.3 m | 10.5 m | 18.2 m | 37.0 m | 27.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 02 Mar 2026verified |
| Short-term debt | 2.0 m | 0 | — | — | — | — | SEC (XBRL)· 03 Mar 2022verified |
| Long-term debt | 15.2 m | 0 | — | — | 0 | 0 | SEC (XBRL)· 11 May 2026verified |
| Current liabilities | 66.8 m | 65.9 m | 55.0 m | 73.4 m | 90.2 m | 100.7 m | SEC (XBRL)· 02 Mar 2026verified |
| Total liabilities | 142.1 m | 153.9 m | 146.7 m | 178.4 m | 258.3 m | 293.5 m | SEC (XBRL)· 02 Mar 2026verified |
| Equity | 91.1 m † | 129.4 m † | 144.9 m † | 166.8 m † | 178.3 m † | 199.7 m † | SEC (XBRL)· 02 Mar 2026verified |
† equity attributable to the parent's shareholders: in these years the issuer no longer reports the total including non-controlling interests.
Cash flow · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | 23.5 m | 27.4 m | 882.0 k | 25.6 m | 29.3 m | 59.3 m | SEC (XBRL)· 02 Mar 2026verified |
| Capex | 5.6 m | 7.5 m | 9.0 m | 40.7 m | 56.9 m | 86.6 m | SEC (XBRL)· 02 Mar 2026verified |
| Free cash flow | 17.9 m ≈ | 19.9 m ≈ | -8.1 m ≈ | -15.1 m ≈ | -27.6 m ≈ | -27.3 m ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 02 Mar 2026derived |
| Investing cash flow | -5.5 m | 37.8 m | -21.4 m | 7.4 m | -47.0 m | -86.2 m | SEC (XBRL)· 02 Mar 2026verified |
| Financing cash flow | -18.6 m | -20.0 m | -12.5 m | -2.9 m | -3.3 m | -3.9 m | SEC (XBRL)· 02 Mar 2026verified |
| Share repurchases | — | 0 | 9.4 m | 891.0 k | 0 | — | SEC (XBRL)· 04 Mar 2025verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating cash flow − Capex.
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
Score: 59 / 100
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 637.9 m USD
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
- Balance sheet55
- Growth100
- Valuation29
- Quality72
Estimated value range
The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 2.37 – 22.71 USD.
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Method ranges (USD per share)
— — Mid · ▏ Price
Valuation methods
- DCF (discounted cash flow)14.92 – 22.71 (Mid 17.94)WACC 9.1% · starting FCFF 27.5 m USD · terminal value share of EV 74%The WACC × g sensitivity gives the method's bounds; these are not probabilities.Reverse DCF: starting growth implied by the price (fading linearly to terminal growth, everything else fixed): 19.8%
- Peers: EV/EBITDA15.04 – 16.44 (Mid 15.41)5 companies used · median multiple 7.9x · quartiles 7.7x – 8.4xAPEI, LAUR, LFS, LGCY, LRN
- Peers: P/E4.69 – 11.88 (Mid 8.90)15 companies used · median multiple 12.4x · quartiles 6.5x – 16.5xAPEI, CVSA, IH, LAUR, LFS, LGCY, LOPE, LRN, PRDO, PXED, STG, STRA, TAL, VSA, YOUL
- Dividend discount (DDM)2.37 – 3.18 (Mid 2.71)
Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 4.3%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 9.3%
- Terminal growth
- 2.5%
Factor scorecard
Neutral profile · Score 59/100
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | 14.7% | 65 (vs peers) | 12% |
| Net margin · Quality | 4.0% | 58 (vs peers) | 7% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | 107.6% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 7% |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | 14.2% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 9% |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | 21.1% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 9% |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | -0.3x | 44 (vs peers) | 12% |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | 8.9x | 100 (on a fixed band) | 7% |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 1.0x | 13 (on a fixed band) | 5% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | 28.0x | 21 (vs peers) | 12% |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | 10.4x | 22 (vs peers) | 12% |
| FCF yield · Valuation | 3.8% | 48 (on a fixed band) | 9% |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet55/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
- Growth100/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
- Quality72/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
- Returns· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
- Valuation29/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
LINCOLN EDUCATIONAL SERVICES CORPORATION (LINC). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2026-06-30.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 518.2 m USD in 2025; YoY growth 17.8%; net margin 4.0%; ROE 11.9%; net debt/EBITDA -0.3x.
The estimated value range is 9.81–14.16 USD per share (median of 4 methods, agreement: low); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 12.16 USD, the price of 20.11 USD leaves a potential of -39.5% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of -65.4% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
olivLaw score 59/100, methodological classification: neutral profile (score, margin of safety and method agreement together; not a judgement of the right price). Groups assessed only in part: returns. Not investment advice.
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- FCF conversion: 107.6%
- Revenue CAGR 3Y: 14.2%
- EPS CAGR 3Y: 21.1%
- Interest coverage: 8.9x
What contradicts it
- Current ratio: 1.0x
- P/E (TTM): 28.0x
- EV/EBITDA: 10.4x
- The price is above the estimated value range
- The valuation methods diverge
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): Shareholder yield (distributions), Payout ratio (FCF).
Versus the vertical median
Services-Educational Services (SIC 8200) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 39 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDUNew Oriental Education & Technology Group Inc. | 80.7 bn | 169.7 | 12.4% | 8.4% | +15.5% | +2% / −36% |
| LAURLaureate Education, Inc. | 4.8 bn | 12.9 | 34.1% | 20.3% | +8.6% | +14% / +168% |
| CVSACovista Inc. | 4.1 bn | 17.0 | 17.9% | 12.8% | +9.3% | +34% / +118% |
| COE51Talk Online Education Group | 4.1 bn | — | — | -17.6% | +88.6% | −73% / +43% |
| LOPEGrand Canyon Education, Inc. | 3.8 bn | 16.1 | 35.9% | 21.9% | +7.1% | −4% / +10% |
| LRNStride, Inc. | 3.3 bn | 10.9 | 20.9% | 13.2% | +4.7% | +25% / +31% |
| NAMIJinxin Technology Holding Company | 2.6 bn | — | -89.7% | -22.8% | +6.1% | −89% / unavailable |
| DAOYoudao, Inc. | 2.5 bn | 159.2 | — | 1.6% | +9.6% | +105% / +397% |
| PRDOPerdoceo Education Corp | 1.9 bn | 10.9 | 17.6% | 20.6% | +24.2% | +7% / +72% |
| STRAStrategic Education, Inc. | 1.7 bn | 12.4 | 8.2% | 10.5% | +4.0% | −5% / −16% |
| YQ17 Education & Technology Group Inc. | 1.5 bn | — | -46.5% | -145.6% | −41.5% | −41% / +14% |
| UTIUniversal Technical Institute, Inc | 1.2 bn | 36.3 | 10.5% | 3.9% | +14.0% | −3% / +91% |
| PXEDPhoenix Education Partners, Inc. | 794.4 m | 9.5 | 30.1% | 8.7% | +1.0% | −36% / unavailable |
| APEIAmerican Public Education, Inc. | 776.2 m | 17.5 | 15.6% | 6.8% | +3.9% | +22% / +439% |
| LINCLincoln Educational Services Corporation | 637.9 m | 28.0 | 11.9% | 4.0% | +17.8% | +8% / +130% |
| JZJianzhi Education Technology Group Company Limited | 522.3 m | — | -44.4% | -22.4% | −70.6% | −98% / −100% |
| GOTUGaotu Techedu Inc. | 373.9 m | — | -20.8% | -5.3% | +40.9% | −0% / −9% |
| IHiHuman Inc. | 245.2 m | 22.8 | 10.0% | 11.8% | −8.7% | −60% / −59% |
| FEDUFour Seasons Education (Cayman) Inc. | 210.5 m | 46.6 | 6.8% | 12.1% | +7.6% | −30% / +13% |
| LXEHLixiang Education Holding Co. Ltd. | 155.2 m | — | -83.1% | -395.4% | −1.9% | −63% / −99% |
| LGCYLegacy Education Inc. | 118.1 m | 14.0 | 19.5% | 11.4% | +24.8% | −12% / unavailable |
| EEIQEpicQuest Education Group International Limited | 93.6 m | — | -34.8% | -27.2% | +9.6% | −23% / −81% |
| VSAVisionSys AI Inc | 81.8 m | 0.3 | — | 164,963.8% | −99.9% | −97% / −100% |
| CHGGChegg, Inc | 71.1 m | — | -30.7% | -17.2% | −39.0% | −34% / −94% |
| AMBOAmbow Education Holding Ltd. | 62.3 m | — | -2.9% | -2.6% | +0.8% | −61% / −10% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for LINC from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (USD)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | 13.04 Total return -35% · Per year -35% | 22.96 Total return 14% · Per year 14% | 34.45 Total return 71% · Per year 71% |
| 3 years | 15.24 Total return -24% · Per year -9% | 29.92 Total return 49% · Per year 14% | 48.92 Total return 143% · Per year 34% |
| 5 years | 17.80 Total return -11% · Per year -2% | 39.00 Total return 94% · Per year 14% | 69.46 Total return 245% · Per year 28% |
- Exit P/E± 7.48
- Net margin± 5.24
- Annual revenue growth± 3.93
- Annual dilution± 0.44
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
In brief
Lincoln Educational Services is a career-oriented postsecondary education provider running 22 campuses in 12 states, training recent high school graduates and working adults in skilled trades, automotive, health sciences and information technology. The company is in a period of accelerating revenue and adjusted profit growth, in a context where demand for skilled trades remains strong 123.
SWOT
Strengths
- The company has a network of campuses in major metropolitan areas and a recognized position in automotive education, which supports recruitment and student retention 1.
- Revenue and adjusted EBITDA grew significantly in the first half of 2026, and operating cash flow improved compared with the prior year 3.
- Programs combine hybrid teaching with hands-on training, and a standardized curriculum supports scalable delivery across campuses 12.
Weaknesses
- The company depends heavily on federal student financial aid, which exposes revenue to regulatory decisions 1.
- Student acquisition costs and sales and marketing expenses have risen, and conversion from enrollment to starts in the second quarter was weaker than expected 3.
- Expansion through new campuses brings temporary losses and large capital investment, and returns will only show once the campuses mature 3.
Opportunities
- If interest in skilled trades keeps growing, expanded high school recruiting could bring more students in the coming years 3.
- The focused-program campus model tested at Suitland could allow new locations to open faster and at lower cost 3.
- Demand for technicians in areas with infrastructure growth, such as data centers, could support the expansion of electrical and HVAC programs 3.
Threats
- Legislative changes or cuts to federal student financing could significantly reduce company revenue 1.
- Regulations on graduate debt and earnings thresholds could limit access to funding for certain programs 1.
- Competition from community colleges and online programs could reduce enrollment share in some local markets 1.
Risks
- Dependence on Title IV federal fundinghigh
A very large share of revenue comes from federal student aid programs, and loss of eligibility would directly affect revenue and operations 1.
- Regulation and compliancehigh
The industry is subject to extensive legal requirements, and failure to comply could lead to sanctions, operating restrictions or loss of accreditation 1.
- Volatility of enrollment demandmedium
Conversion from enrollment to starts was weaker than expected in the second quarter, showing that demand can fluctuate from one quarter to the next 3.
- Expansion and capital spending costsmedium
Opening new campuses and acquiring property raises capital spending and can produce losses before new locations become profitable 3.
- Student credit exposurelow
The company extends credit to students for the portion of tuition not covered by federal funding, exposing it to non-payment risk and bad debt costs 12.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- Growth in revenue, adjusted profit and student population suggests the business model can scale, and reiterated 2026 guidance points to continued confidence in that trend 23.
- If interest in skilled trades keeps rising, expanded high school recruiting and new campuses could support enrollment growth over the medium term 3.
- A focused-program campus model could reduce expansion costs and speed entry into new markets, which could strengthen the company's position 3.
What would break the thesis
- A heavy dependence on federal financing leaves revenue exposed to policy changes that the company cannot control 1.
- Weaker conversion from enrollment to starts in the second quarter could show that demand is more fragile than aggregate growth suggests 3.
- Investment in new campuses and property acquisitions raises capital spending and could slow cash generation if new locations do not deliver results on time 3.
What to watch
- Pace of student start growth and results of the August 2026 classQ3 2026
- Delivery against full-year 2026 revenue and adjusted EBITDA guidance2026
- Opening of the Hicksville and Rowlett campuses2026-2027
- Changes in Title IV funding and federal rules for for-profit schoolsnext 10-K
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
The business
Lincoln Educational Services Corporation provides career-oriented postsecondary programs for recent high school graduates and adults seeking retraining. The company reported revenue of $518.2 million in fiscal 2025, an increase of 17.8% over the prior year 1. Its programs combine online instruction with classroom sessions led by experienced instructors, and its schools operate under the Lincoln Technical Institute, Lincoln College of Technology and Nashville Auto Diesel College brands 1.
Most campuses serve major metropolitan markets, and five of them are destination schools that attract students from across the United States and sometimes abroad. The campuses are nationally accredited and eligible for federal financial aid, which makes Title IV funding a central element of the business model 1.
The strategy includes opening new campuses, expanding existing programs, raising operating efficiency and moving to the Lincoln 10.0 hybrid teaching platform, whose implementation is expected to be finalized by the end of 2026 for most programs 12.
Segments
Skilled Trades
Skilled trades were 52% of average student enrollment in fiscal 2025 and are the largest area of study, with electrical, HVAC, welding and CNC programs offered at 20 campuses 1.
Automotive
Automotive is the second largest area, with 26% of average enrollment in fiscal 2025, offered at 14 campuses and covering automotive technology, collision repair and diesel technology 1.
Health Sciences and IT
Health sciences and information technology accounted for 22% of average enrollment in fiscal 2025, with programs offered at 12 campuses, including licensed practical nursing and dental assisting 1.
Market context
The company operates in for-profit postsecondary education, a sector heavily regulated by the federal government, the states where institutions operate and accrediting agencies. Revenue depends heavily on federal student financial aid, which represented approximately 85% of revenue on a cash basis in fiscal 2025 1.
Demand for skilled labor is supported by the widening skills gap and retirements in the trades, and the company reports growing interest in skilled trades from students, parents and guidance counselors 13.
Trends
- Growing demand for skilled tradestailwind
Management says interest in the skilled trades is rising and recruiting from high schools has been expanded, which could support future enrollment if the trend holds 3.
- Focused-program campus modeltailwind
The new Suitland, Maryland campus tests a model focused on specific programs, which the company describes as cheaper and faster to build than a traditional campus, potentially allowing quicker responses to employer needs 3.
- Reliance on federal fundingheadwind
Changes in federal policy or reductions in Title IV funding could directly affect revenue and student numbers, given how large a share of revenue this funding represents 1.
- Shifts in student decision-makingmixed
In the second quarter of 2026 the company saw fewer enrolled students than expected attend the first day of class, lowering conversion from enrollment to starts, which shows some quarter-to-quarter fragility in demand 3.
Competitive position
The analyzed sources do not explicitly name competitors. The company describes itself as a career-oriented postsecondary provider and holds a leading local position in automotive education in the markets where it operates 1.
Competition essentially comes from other institutions offering postsecondary vocational programs in the same metropolitan areas, as well as adult retraining alternatives. The sources do not name them, so the analysis cannot assess them directly 1.
- Other vocational postsecondary schools in local markets
Sources do not name competitors; direct competition appears locally in the metropolitan areas where the company has campuses 1.
- Community colleges in states where campuses operate
Not identified in the sources; they may compete for recent high school graduates interested in short programs or technical diplomas 1.
- Adult retraining and online program providers
Not named in the sources; they could compete for working adults seeking fast retraining, especially in IT 1.
- Trade schools and apprenticeship programs
Not identified in the sources; they may draw the same candidates for skilled trades, including through on-the-job training models 1.
Links, dependencies and risks
Who the company is tied to, from its own SEC filings (customers, suppliers, production, partners, competitors, countries, regulation), from the 5 %+ holders' statements (13D/13G) and from what other companies say about it. Click a node for its evidence; on a listed company the graph moves to it.
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News & filings
In the press
No news in our archive over the last 180 days.
SEC filings
- Current report10 Aug 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Quarterly report10 Aug 2026
- Current report10 Jul 2026Material agreement · Acquisition or disposition of assets · Creation of a direct financial obligation · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report13 May 2026Material agreement · Financial statements and exhibits
- Quarterly report11 May 2026
- Current report11 May 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report11 May 2026Shareholder vote · Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report16 Apr 2026Material agreement · Creation of a direct financial obligation · Other events · Financial statements and exhibits
- Proxy statement26 Mar 2026
- Current report19 Mar 2026Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
Sources
- [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · SEC / Lincoln Educational Services Corporation · 02 Mar 2026
- [2] Form 10-Q, quarter ended 2026-06-30 · SEC / Lincoln Educational Services Corporation · 10 Aug 2026
- [3] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / Lincoln Educational Services Corporation · 10 Aug 2026
Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.