olivLaw · US equity research
Stride, Inc. LRN
Services-Educational Services · SIC 8200 · Vertical: Services-Educational Services (SIC 8200)
Stride is an educational technology company delivering K-12 online learning and career training, selling mainly integrated school-as-a-service packages to virtual public schools and districts. The company reported revenue of 2,518.1 million USD in fiscal 2026, but enrollments fell in the first quarter of fiscal 2027, making demand and per-pupil funding trends relevant.
At the close of 04 Nov 2026, Stride, Inc. (LRN) stock was 79.24 USD (+5.58% on the day), with market capitalisation 3.3 bn USD, P/E 10.9 on diluted EPS of 7.25 USD over the last 12 months, beta 0.40, 52-week range 61.02–102.03 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q1 2027): revenue of 639.4 m USD (+3.0% YoY), net income of 64.9 m USD (−5.6% YoY), diluted EPS 1.45 USD.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
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Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 49.0
- neutral
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 74.84 – 85.73
- in the lower half of the band · %B 0.40 · band width 13.6%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 80.95 / 86.07
- downtrend (price < SMA50 < SMA200)
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- -0.94 / -0.67
- MACD below signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | S&P 500 | vs S&P 500 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | +0.5% | −2.0% | +2.4 pp | — |
| 3 months | −4.0% | −2.2% | −1.9 pp | — |
| 6 months | −14.8% | +4.3% | −19.1 pp | — |
| Year to date | +22.0% | +10.6% | +11.5 pp | — |
| 1 year | +11.5% | +10.5% | +1.0 pp | −30.6% |
| 3 years | +41.8% | +73.7% | −31.8 pp | −18.2% |
| 5 years | +118.8% | +61.7% | +57.1 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
Latest quarter: Q1 2027 · 30 Sept 2026
Quarterly margins
Quarterly statements · USD
| Fiscal year | Q2 '25 | Q3 '25 | Q4 '25 | Q1 '26 | Q2 '26 | Q3 '26 | Q4 '26 | Q1 '27 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 587.2 m | 613.4 m | 653.6 m | 620.9 m | 631.3 m | 629.9 m | 636.1 m | 639.4 m |
| Cost of revenue | 347.4 m | 364.1 m | 414.7 m | 378.8 m | 371.6 m | 398.3 m | 418.8 m | 398.3 m |
| Gross profit | 239.9 m | 249.3 m | 238.9 m | 242.1 m | 259.6 m | 231.6 m | 217.3 m | 241.1 m |
| SG&A | 114.8 m | 118.5 m | 122.6 m | 173.1 m | 112.8 m | 102.5 m | 111.4 m | 156.8 m |
| Operating income | 125.1 m | 130.8 m | 56.9 m | 69.0 m | 146.9 m | 129.1 m | 105.9 m | 84.3 m |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 27.4 m ≈ | 28.9 m ≈ | 30.2 m | 29.2 m | 31.0 m ≈ | 32.6 m ≈ | 33.8 m | 34.9 m |
| Pre-tax income | 129.8 m | 135.4 m | 62.1 m | 82.8 m | 133.3 m | 120.7 m | 104.1 m | 82.8 m |
| Income tax | 33.4 m | 35.5 m | 12.9 m | 14.4 m | 34.0 m | 31.5 m | 22.8 m | 17.8 m |
| Net income | 96.4 m | 99.3 m | 51.3 m | 68.8 m | 99.5 m | 88.5 m | 81.4 m | 64.9 m |
| Diluted EPS | 2.03 | 2.02 | 1.02 ≈ | 1.40 | 2.12 | 1.93 | 1.75 ≈ | 1.45 |
| Operating cash flow | 223.4 m ≈ | 53.1 m ≈ | 298.3 m | -195.8 m | 91.8 m ≈ | 220.9 m ≈ | 316.9 m | -124.8 m |
| Capex | 484.0 k ≈ | 197.0 k ≈ | 431.0 k | 306.0 k | -254.0 k ≈ | 535.0 k ≈ | 0 | 4.0 k |
| Share repurchases | — | — | — | — | — | 0 ≈ | 100.0 m | — |
≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Today's P/E sits at the 5 percentile of its own 40-quarter history (min 9.9, median 19.8, max 119.5; quarters with earnings only).
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 1.0 bn | 1.0 bn | 1.5 bn | 1.7 bn | 1.8 bn | 2.0 bn | 2.4 bn | 2.5 bn |
| Revenue YoY | +10.7% | +2.5% | +47.7% | +9.8% | +8.9% | +11.0% | +17.9% | +4.7% |
| Net income | 37.2 m | 24.5 m | 71.5 m | 107.1 m | 126.9 m | 204.2 m | 287.9 m | 338.2 m |
| Net income YoY | +34.7% | −34.1% | +191.6% | +49.9% | +18.4% | +60.9% | +41.0% | +17.5% |
| Diluted EPS | 0.91 | 0.60 | 1.71 | 2.52 | 2.97 | 4.69 | 5.95 | 7.14 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | +33.8% | −34.1% | +185.0% | +47.4% | +17.9% | +57.9% | +26.9% | +20.0% |
| net % | 3.7% | 2.4% | 4.6% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 10.0% | 12.0% | 13.4% |
| Free cash flow | 136.1 m | 78.7 m | 130.6 m | 197.1 m | 198.8 m | 276.5 m | 431.0 m | 433.2 m |
Reported results vs expectations
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Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2026 · 30 Jun 2026
- Cash
- 754.5 m USD
- Financial debt
- 418.0 m USD
- Net debt
- -336.5 m USD
- Equity
- 1.6 bn USD
- Total assets
- 2.4 bn USD
- Debt / equity
- 0.26x
- Current ratio
- 5.94x
- ROE
- 21.7%
- ROA
- 14.3%
- FCF margin
- 17.2%
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (USD)
Margins
Income statement · USD
| Line | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 1.5 bn | 1.7 bn | 1.8 bn | 2.0 bn | 2.4 bn | 2.5 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 05 Aug 2026verified |
| Cost of revenue | 1.0 bn | 1.1 bn | 1.2 bn | 1.3 bn | 1.5 bn | 1.6 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 05 Aug 2026verified |
| Gross profit | 534.9 m | 596.5 m | 647.1 m | 763.6 m | 943.9 m | 950.6 m | SEC (XBRL)· 05 Aug 2026verified |
| Research & development | 3.7 m | 7.5 m | 15.5 m | 16.7 m | 16.6 m | 22.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 05 Aug 2026verified |
| SG&A | 424.4 m | 439.8 m | 481.6 m | 514.0 m | 524.3 m | 499.8 m | SEC (XBRL)· 05 Aug 2026verified |
| Operating income | 110.5 m | 156.6 m | 165.5 m | 249.6 m | 360.1 m | 450.8 m | SEC (XBRL)· 05 Aug 2026verified |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 90.1 m | 97.9 m | 110.4 m | 109.7 m | 114.7 m | 126.6 m | SEC (XBRL)· 05 Aug 2026verified |
| EBITDA | 200.5 m ≈ | 254.5 m ≈ | 275.9 m ≈ | 359.3 m ≈ | 474.8 m ≈ | 577.3 m ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 05 Aug 2026derived |
| Pre-tax income | 96.0 m | 147.2 m | 172.2 m | 268.7 m | 380.9 m | 441.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 05 Aug 2026verified |
| Income tax | 24.5 m | 40.1 m | 45.3 m | 64.5 m | 93.0 m | 102.8 m | SEC (XBRL)· 05 Aug 2026verified |
| Net income | 71.5 m | 107.1 m | 126.9 m | 204.2 m | 287.9 m | 338.2 m | SEC (XBRL)· 05 Aug 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | 1.71 | 2.52 | 2.97 | 4.69 | 5.95 | 7.14 | SEC (XBRL)· 05 Aug 2026verified |
| Weighted average diluted shares | 41.9 m | 42.4 m | 42.7 m | 43.5 m | 48.4 m | 47.3 m | SEC (XBRL)· 05 Aug 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating income + Depreciation & amortisation.
Balance sheet · USD
| Line | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 386.1 m | 389.4 m | 410.8 m | 500.6 m | 782.5 m | 754.5 m | SEC (XBRL)· 05 Aug 2026verified |
| Receivables | 369.3 m | 418.6 m | 463.7 m | 472.8 m | 559.6 m | 664.8 m | SEC (XBRL)· 05 Aug 2026verified |
| Inventories | 39.7 m | 36.0 m | 36.7 m | 36.7 m | 37.6 m | 38.3 m | SEC (XBRL)· 05 Aug 2026verified |
| Current assets | 857.5 m | 950.5 m | 1.1 bn | 1.2 bn | 1.6 bn | 1.7 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 05 Aug 2026verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | 72.1 m | 61.5 m | 52.3 m | 50.9 m | 78.6 m | 102.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 05 Aug 2026verified |
| Goodwill | 240.4 m | 241.0 m | 246.7 m | 246.7 m | 246.7 m | 246.7 m | SEC (XBRL)· 05 Aug 2026verified |
| Intangibles (excl. goodwill) | 99.5 m | 88.7 m | 74.8 m | 60.3 m | 18.2 m | 10.9 m | SEC (XBRL)· 05 Aug 2026verified |
| Total assets | 1.6 bn | 1.6 bn | 1.8 bn | 1.9 bn | 2.3 bn | 2.4 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 05 Aug 2026verified |
| Accounts payable | 62.1 m | 62.0 m | 48.9 m | 41.0 m | 44.0 m | 46.7 m | SEC (XBRL)· 05 Aug 2026verified |
| Long-term debt | 299.3 m | 411.4 m | 413.0 m | 414.7 m | 416.3 m | 418.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 05 Aug 2026verified |
| Current liabilities | 306.2 m | 302.1 m | 309.1 m | 244.3 m | 302.9 m | 288.9 m | SEC (XBRL)· 05 Aug 2026verified |
| Total liabilities | 772.6 m | 831.0 m | 813.4 m | 744.4 m | 814.3 m | 803.2 m | SEC (XBRL)· 05 Aug 2026verified |
| Equity | 804.6 m † | 812.6 m † | 947.3 m † | 1.2 bn † | 1.5 bn † | 1.6 bn † | SEC (XBRL)· 05 Aug 2026verified |
† equity attributable to the parent's shareholders: in these years the issuer no longer reports the total including non-controlling interests.
Cash flow · USD
| Line | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | 134.2 m | 206.9 m | 203.2 m | 278.8 m | 432.8 m | 433.8 m | SEC (XBRL)· 05 Aug 2026verified |
| Capex | 3.6 m | 9.7 m | 4.3 m | 2.3 m | 1.8 m | 587.0 k | SEC (XBRL)· 05 Aug 2026verified |
| Free cash flow | 130.6 m ≈ | 197.1 m ≈ | 198.8 m ≈ | 276.5 m ≈ | 431.0 m ≈ | 433.2 m ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 05 Aug 2026derived |
| Investing cash flow | -165.4 m | -110.8 m | -118.2 m | -139.9 m | -88.0 m | -179.8 m | SEC (XBRL)· 05 Aug 2026verified |
| Financing cash flow | 204.6 m | -93.3 m | -63.5 m | -49.1 m | -62.9 m | -282.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 05 Aug 2026verified |
| Share repurchases | — | — | — | — | — | 188.7 m | SEC (XBRL)· 05 Aug 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating cash flow − Capex.
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
Score: 77 / 100
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 3.3 bn USD
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
- Valuation83
- Returns81
- Quality85
- Balance sheet29
- Growth96
Estimated value range
The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 47.35 – 129.30 USD.
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Method ranges (USD per share)
— — Mid · ▏ Price
Valuation methods
- DCF (discounted cash flow)unavailable · input data missing
- Peers: EV/EBITDA105.05 – 120.62 (Mid 112.77)5 companies used · median multiple 8.4x · quartiles 7.9x – 9.0xAPEI, LAUR, LFS, LGCY, LINC
- Peers: P/E47.35 – 129.30 (Mid 93.45)15 companies used · median multiple 12.9x · quartiles 6.5x – 17.8xAPEI, CVSA, IH, LAUR, LFS, LGCY, LINC, LOPE, PRDO, PXED, STG, STRA, TAL, VSA, YOUL
- Dividend discount (DDM)unavailable · the company pays no dividend: a dividend model needs an explicit initiation assumption
Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 4.3%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 9.3%
- Terminal growth
- 2.5%
Factor scorecard
Neutral profile · Score 77/100
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | 20.9% | 78 (vs peers) | 12% |
| Net margin · Quality | 13.2% | 82 (vs peers) | 7% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | 150.9% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 7% |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | 11.1% | 92 (on a fixed band) | 9% |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | 34.0% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 9% |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | 0.5x | 0 (vs peers) | 12% |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 2.6x | 100 (on a fixed band) | 5% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | 10.9x | 74 (vs peers) | 12% |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | 6.1x | 78 (vs peers) | 12% |
| FCF yield · Valuation | 15.1% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 9% |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | 5.7% | 81 (on a fixed band) | 7% |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet29/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
- Growth96/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
- Quality85/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
- Returns· partial81/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
- Valuation83/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
STRIDE, INC. (LRN). Latest full fiscal year: 2026; data up to 2026-09-30.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 2.5 bn USD in 2026; YoY growth 4.7%; net margin 13.2%; ROE 20.9%; net debt/EBITDA 0.5x.
The estimated value range is 76.20–124.96 USD per share (median of 2 methods, agreement: same basis (multiples on one peer group, not independent confirmations)); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 103.11 USD, the price of 79.24 USD leaves a potential of 30.1% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of 23.1% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
olivLaw score 77/100, methodological classification: neutral profile (score, margin of safety and method agreement together; not a judgement of the right price). Groups assessed only in part: returns. Not investment advice.
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- ROIC: 20.9%
- Net margin: 13.2%
- FCF conversion: 150.9%
- Revenue CAGR 3Y: 11.1%
- EPS CAGR 3Y: 34.0%
- Current ratio: 2.6x
- P/E (TTM): 10.9x
- EV/EBITDA: 6.1x
- FCF yield: 15.1%
- Shareholder yield (distributions): 5.7%
What contradicts it
- Net debt / EBITDA: 0.5x
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): Interest coverage, Payout ratio (FCF).
Versus the vertical median
Services-Educational Services (SIC 8200) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 39 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDUNew Oriental Education & Technology Group Inc. | 80.7 bn | 169.7 | 12.4% | 8.4% | +15.5% | +2% / −36% |
| LAURLaureate Education, Inc. | 4.8 bn | 12.9 | 34.1% | 20.3% | +8.6% | +14% / +168% |
| CVSACovista Inc. | 4.1 bn | 17.0 | 17.9% | 12.8% | +9.3% | +34% / +118% |
| COE51Talk Online Education Group | 4.1 bn | — | — | -17.6% | +88.6% | −73% / +43% |
| LOPEGrand Canyon Education, Inc. | 3.9 bn | 18.2 | 31.0% | 19.6% | +7.1% | −4% / +10% |
| LRNStride, Inc. | 3.3 bn | 10.9 | 20.9% | 13.2% | +4.7% | +11% / +42% |
| NAMIJinxin Technology Holding Company | 2.6 bn | — | -89.7% | -22.8% | +6.1% | −89% / unavailable |
| DAOYoudao, Inc. | 2.5 bn | 159.2 | — | 1.6% | +9.6% | +105% / +397% |
| PRDOPerdoceo Education Corp | 1.9 bn | 10.9 | 17.6% | 20.6% | +24.2% | +7% / +72% |
| STRAStrategic Education, Inc. | 1.7 bn | 12.4 | 8.2% | 10.5% | +4.0% | −5% / −16% |
| YQ17 Education & Technology Group Inc. | 1.5 bn | — | -46.5% | -145.6% | −41.5% | −41% / +14% |
| UTIUniversal Technical Institute, Inc | 1.2 bn | 36.3 | 10.5% | 3.9% | +14.0% | −3% / +91% |
| PXEDPhoenix Education Partners, Inc. | 794.4 m | 9.5 | 30.1% | 8.7% | +1.0% | −36% / unavailable |
| APEIAmerican Public Education, Inc. | 776.2 m | 17.5 | 15.6% | 6.8% | +3.9% | +22% / +439% |
| LINCLincoln Educational Services Corporation | 637.9 m | 28.0 | 11.9% | 4.0% | +17.8% | −2% / +117% |
| JZJianzhi Education Technology Group Company Limited | 522.3 m | — | -44.4% | -22.4% | −70.6% | −98% / −100% |
| GOTUGaotu Techedu Inc. | 373.9 m | — | -20.8% | -5.3% | +40.9% | −0% / −9% |
| IHiHuman Inc. | 245.2 m | 22.8 | 10.0% | 11.8% | −8.7% | −60% / −59% |
| FEDUFour Seasons Education (Cayman) Inc. | 210.5 m | 46.6 | 6.8% | 12.1% | +7.6% | −30% / +13% |
| LXEHLixiang Education Holding Co. Ltd. | 155.2 m | — | -83.1% | -395.4% | −1.9% | −63% / −99% |
| LGCYLegacy Education Inc. | 118.1 m | 14.0 | 19.5% | 11.4% | +24.8% | −12% / unavailable |
| EEIQEpicQuest Education Group International Limited | 93.6 m | — | -34.8% | -27.2% | +9.6% | −23% / −81% |
| VSAVisionSys AI Inc | 81.8 m | 0.3 | — | 164,963.8% | −99.9% | −97% / −100% |
| CHGGChegg, Inc | 71.1 m | — | -30.7% | -17.2% | −39.0% | −34% / −94% |
| AMBOAmbow Education Holding Ltd. | 62.3 m | — | -2.9% | -2.6% | +0.8% | −61% / −10% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for LRN from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (USD)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | 54.76 Total return -31% · Per year -31% | 96.52 Total return 22% · Per year 22% | 145.00 Total return 83% · Per year 83% |
| 3 years | 60.40 Total return -24% · Per year -9% | 119.09 Total return 50% · Per year 15% | 195.37 Total return 147% · Per year 35% |
| 5 years | 66.63 Total return -16% · Per year -3% | 146.94 Total return 85% · Per year 13% | 263.23 Total return 232% · Per year 27% |
- Exit P/E± 29.77
- Net margin± 20.84
- Annual revenue growth± 16.09
- Annual dilution± 1.75
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
In brief
Stride is an educational technology company delivering K-12 online learning and career training, selling mainly integrated school-as-a-service packages to virtual public schools and districts. The company reported revenue of 2,518.1 million USD in fiscal 2026, but enrollments fell in the first quarter of fiscal 2027, making demand and per-pupil funding trends relevant.
SWOT
Strengths
- The company has an integrated technology platform and long-duration contracts with automatic renewal, giving a stable base of recurring revenue 1.
- The portfolio spans general education and career preparation, allowing it to serve several customer groups 1.
- Rising revenue per enrollment in the first quarter of fiscal 2027 indicates an ability to benefit from the product mix 3.
Weaknesses
- Most revenue comes from contracts with public schools, which makes the company vulnerable to funding changes and payment delays 1.
- Enrollment fell in the first quarter of fiscal 2027, and the Adult Learning segment shrank sharply 3.
- The company relies on third parties for cloud infrastructure and materials logistics, adding operational risk 1.
Opportunities
- Demand for alternative education and non-degree training could grow, leaving room to expand the offering 1.
- If more states authorize virtual schools, the company could expand its number of partner schools 1.
- Developing artificial-intelligence-assisted products could improve student outcomes and attract new contracts 1.
Threats
- Cuts to per-pupil funding or political changes could reduce revenue from school contracts 1.
- Controversies over virtual school performance and government investigations could damage the reputation of the whole sector 1.
- New competitors with superior technology and lower prices could erode market share 2.
Risks
- Dependence on public fundinghigh
Most revenue depends on per-pupil funding levels and formulas, and cuts or delays could significantly affect results 1.
- Reputation of virtual schoolshigh
Poor performance or allegations of misconduct at other virtual schools could affect perceptions of the whole sector and lead to restrictive legislation 1.
- Declining enrollmentmedium
A lasting fall in student numbers could reduce revenue, particularly if new enrollments do not offset withdrawals 2.
- Litigation over charter schoolsmedium
Opponents of charter schools may challenge their establishment and expansion in court, which could limit growth in some jurisdictions 1.
- Cyber and data risksmedium
Security incidents or disclosure of student data could cause financial losses and reputational harm 2.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- Demand for school choice and vocational training, supported by the surveys cited in the report, could sustain long-term growth if the company keeps its program quality high 1.
- Rising revenue per enrollment in the first quarter of fiscal 2027 shows that the product mix can partly offset fewer students 3.
- Long-duration contracts with automatic renewal could provide revenue visibility if partner schools keep working with the company 1.
What would break the thesis
- Reliance on public per-pupil funding makes revenue sensitive to budget decisions the company does not control 1.
- The drop in enrollment and the contraction of Adult Learning could signal demand problems that do not resolve quickly 3.
- Rising competition and new entrants with new technologies could pressure margins and market share 2.
What to watch
- Enrollment trends and revenue per enrollment against the revenue outlookQ2 2027
- Delivery against the fiscal 2027 revenue outlook of 2.530 to 2.610 billion USD2027
- Policy and funding changes in the states where the company runs schools2027
- Updates on legal, regulatory and cybersecurity risks in the next annual reportnext 10-K
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
The business
Stride presents itself as a technology company providing an educational platform for online learning in the U.S., with products and services covering curriculum, systems, instruction and support. Its clients are mainly public and private schools, school districts and charter boards, but it also serves employers, government agencies and consumers. According to its annual report for the fiscal year ended June 30, 2026, it provided school-as-a-service offerings to 92 schools in 31 states and the District of Columbia in General Education and to 57 schools or programs in 25 states and the District of Columbia in Career Learning 1.
The revenue model rests largely on school-as-a-service agreements that bundle curriculum, technology, instruction and administrative support for the schools it runs. The average duration of these agreements is greater than five years, and most renew automatically unless the customer gives notice of non-renewal 1. The company therefore ties its revenue to public per-pupil funding and to enrollment counts at its virtual and blended schools.
In 2020 the company expanded its adult learning activity by acquiring three companies offering training in software engineering and allied healthcare, sold directly to consumers, employers and government agencies 1. This line is much smaller than the virtual school business, according to the annual report 1.
Segments
General Education
General Education covers core subjects for kindergarten through twelfth grade and serves as an alternative to traditional schooling. In the first quarter of fiscal 2027 revenue from this line was 356,606 thousand USD, down 1.8% year on year 3.
Market context
The U.S. K-12 market is large, and the annual report points to growing acceptance of school choice: a January 2026 survey found that 75% of parents had considered, searched for or enrolled a child in a new or different school in the past year, the highest level in five years 1. The estimated number of home-educated students reached about 3.4 million in the 2024-2025 school year 1. These trends support demand for virtual options, though full-time virtual schools are expected to serve only a small share of the overall student population 1.
In adult skills training, Bureau of Labor Statistics data cited in the annual report project that demand for occupations requiring non-degree post-secondary education will grow 5.1% by 2034, faster than overall occupations 1. The market remains sensitive to state funding and education policy, and enrollment figures can vary from quarter to quarter 2.
Trends
- Demand for school choicetailwind
Rising parental interest in alternative schools and online learning could support long-term enrollment, especially if states keep authorizing virtual schools 1.
- Declining enrollmentheadwind
Enrollment fell in the first quarter of fiscal 2027, which could weigh on revenue if the trend continues 3.
- Public per-pupil fundingmixed
Revenue depends on per-pupil funding levels, and budget changes or payment delays could slow growth if conditions shift 1.
- Higher revenue per enrollmenttailwind
Revenue per enrollment rose in the first quarter of fiscal 2027, which could partly offset fewer students if the enrollment mix stays stable 3.
Competitive position
The annual report notes that competition in the education sectors it serves is increasing, and that new entrants with superior technologies, including artificial intelligence, and lower prices could emerge 2. The company operates in a sector where virtual public schools face heightened scrutiny from regulators and the media 1.
Competition includes providers of digital curriculum, tuition-based online private schools and adult training programs. The sources reviewed do not name specific competitors, so the references below are described generically 1.
- Public virtual school operators
Operators running online public schools in the same states; the report refers to rising competition in the sector without naming them 1.
- Digital curriculum providers for schools
Companies selling online courses and materials to school districts, mentioned indirectly through competition for materials funding 1.
- Tuition-based online private schools
Fee-charging schools competing for families seeking flexibility, particularly in states without a free public option 1.
- Adult technical training providers
Certification programs in software and healthcare competing in the Adult Learning segment 1.
Links, dependencies and risks
Who the company is tied to, from its own SEC filings (customers, suppliers, production, partners, competitors, countries, regulation), from the 5 %+ holders' statements (13D/13G) and from what other companies say about it. Click a node for its evidence; on a listed company the graph moves to it.
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News & filings
In the press
- Wiz pitcher Allen taking role changes in stride: 'I am ready to do whatever team needs'Yonhap News (KR, EN) · 04 Nov 2026 · EN
- UK healthtech startup Stride raises £4.6M to expand preventative health platformTech.eu · 14 Oct 2026 · EN
- Chime Financial (CHYM) Moves Deeper into Banking with $590 Million Stride AcquisitionYahoo Finance — News · 11 Sept 2026 · EN
- Pegula salutes Sabalenka and takes US Open defeat in strideCNA (Channel NewsAsia) · 11 Sept 2026 · EN
- Chime Wins Price-Target Hikes On Stride Deal And Raised Guidance, But Shares Slash Early GainsYahoo Finance — News · 09 Sept 2026 · EN
- Chime acquires Stride Bank for $590 million to get bank charterYahoo Finance — News · 09 Sept 2026 · EN
- Chime to buy Stride Bank in $590m dealYahoo Finance — News · 09 Sept 2026 · EN
- Chime shares jump 10% as Stride deal puts fintech on path to bank charterCNA (Channel NewsAsia) · 09 Sept 2026 · EN
- Chime shares jump as Stride deal puts fintech on path to bank charterCNA (Channel NewsAsia) · 09 Sept 2026 · EN
- Chime Financial Signals Breakout On Strong Guidance, Stride TakeoverYahoo Finance — News · 09 Sept 2026 · EN
- Chime to buy nationally chartered Stride Bank for $590 million, shares jumpCNA (Channel NewsAsia) · 08 Sept 2026 · EN
- Naomi Osaka takes major title wait in stride after U.S. Open exitThe Japan Times · 08 Sept 2026 · RO
- Osaka takes major title wait in stride after US Open exitCNA (Channel NewsAsia) · 07 Sept 2026 · EN
- ‘The boy who cried wolf’: NATO allies take Trump’s bluster in stride at crunch summitPolitico EU · 08 Jul 2026 · RO
- Apple TV is hitting its strideThe Verge · 03 Jul 2026 · EN
SEC filings
- Proxy statement27 Oct 2026
- Quarterly report21 Oct 2026
- Current report20 Oct 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report09 Oct 2026Material agreement · Departure or appointment of officers · Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
- Annual report05 Aug 2026
- Current report04 Aug 2026Results of operations · Other events · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report30 Jul 2026Results of operations · Departure or appointment of officers · Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
- Quarterly report29 Apr 2026
- Current report28 Apr 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Quarterly report28 Jan 2026
Sources
- [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2026-06-30 · SEC / Stride, Inc. · 05 Aug 2026
- [2] Form 10-Q, quarter ended 2026-09-30 · SEC / Stride, Inc. · 21 Oct 2026
- [3] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / Stride, Inc. · 20 Oct 2026
Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.