olivLaw · US equity research
Grand Canyon Education, Inc. LOPE
Services-Educational Services · SIC 8200 · Vertical: Services-Educational Services (SIC 8200)
Grand Canyon Education, Inc. (GCE) is an education services company that provides technology, academic services, counseling and marketing to university partners, mainly Grand Canyon University. The company reported service revenue of 1,106.1 million USD in fiscal 2025 and currently supports 20 university partners, which makes it relevant for those following the service-provider model for US higher education.
The AI analysis may be outdated: new filings came after its sources (see the «AI analysis» section).
At the close of 04 Nov 2026, Grand Canyon Education, Inc. (LOPE) stock was 150.67 USD (+1.30% on the day), with market capitalisation 3.9 bn USD, P/E 18.2 on diluted EPS of 8.27 USD over the last 12 months, beta 0.53, 52-week range 136.72–180.48 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q2 2026): revenue of 264.0 m USD (+6.7% YoY), net income of 45.9 m USD (+10.4% YoY), diluted EPS 1.75 USD.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
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Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 41.8
- weak (30–45)
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 147.82 – 167.79
- in the lower half of the band · %B 0.14 · band width 12.7%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 153.92 / 157.05
- downtrend (price < SMA50 < SMA200)
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- -1.09 / 0.56
- MACD below signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | S&P 500 | vs S&P 500 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | −2.7% | −2.0% | −0.8 pp | — |
| 3 months | +0.1% | −2.2% | +2.2 pp | — |
| 6 months | −8.4% | +4.3% | −12.7 pp | — |
| Year to date | −9.4% | +10.6% | −20.0 pp | — |
| 1 year | −18.5% | +10.5% | −29.0 pp | −30.6% |
| 3 years | +9.9% | +73.7% | −63.7 pp | −18.2% |
| 5 years | +79.4% | +61.7% | +17.6 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
Latest quarter: Q2 2026 · 30 Jun 2026
Quarterly margins
Quarterly statements · USD
| Fiscal year | Q3 '24 | Q4 '24 | Q1 '25 | Q2 '25 | Q3 '25 | Q4 '25 | Q1 '26 | Q2 '26 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 238.3 m | 292.6 m | 289.3 m | 247.5 m | 261.1 m | 308.1 m | 308.8 m | 264.0 m |
| Operating income | 48.2 m | 100.0 m | 88.0 m | 51.8 m | 18.0 m | 108.1 m | 95.5 m | 58.2 m |
| Interest expense | 0 ≈ | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Pre-tax income | 52.3 m | 104.0 m | 91.4 m | 55.0 m | 21.7 m | 111.8 m | 98.5 m | 60.9 m |
| Income tax | 10.9 m | 22.1 m | 19.8 m | 13.5 m | 5.4 m | 25.0 m | 23.1 m | 15.0 m |
| Net income | 41.5 m | 81.9 m | 71.6 m | 41.5 m | 16.3 m | 86.7 m | 75.3 m | 45.9 m |
| Diluted EPS | 1.42 | 2.84 ≈ | 2.52 | 1.48 | 0.58 | 3.14 ≈ | 2.80 | 1.75 |
| Operating cash flow | -29.4 m ≈ | 135.8 m | 67.6 m | 124.0 m ≈ | -48.6 m ≈ | 130.5 m | 88.2 m | 108.6 m ≈ |
| Capex | 9.6 m ≈ | 9.7 m | 8.9 m | 8.6 m ≈ | 9.7 m ≈ | 7.6 m | 8.1 m | 10.7 m ≈ |
| Share repurchases | 39.6 m ≈ | 64.8 m | 77.9 m | 47.4 m ≈ | 39.5 m ≈ | 100.0 m | 127.9 m | 75.3 m ≈ |
≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Today's P/E sits at the 33 percentile of its own 39-quarter history (min 14.3, median 19.0, max 29.6; quarters with earnings only).
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 845.5 m | 778.6 m | 844.1 m | 896.6 m | 911.3 m | 960.9 m | 1.0 bn | 1.1 bn |
| Revenue YoY | −13.2% | −7.9% | +8.4% | +6.2% | +1.6% | +5.4% | +7.5% | +7.1% |
| Net income | 229.0 m | 259.2 m | 257.2 m | 260.3 m | 184.7 m | 205.0 m | 226.2 m | 216.2 m |
| Net income YoY | +12.6% | +13.2% | −0.8% | +1.2% | −29.1% | +11.0% | +10.4% | −4.4% |
| Diluted EPS | 4.73 | 5.37 | 5.45 | 5.92 | 5.73 | 6.80 | 7.73 | 7.71 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | +12.1% | +13.5% | +1.5% | +8.6% | −3.2% | +18.7% | +13.7% | −0.3% |
| net % | 27.1% | 33.3% | 30.5% | 29.0% | 20.3% | 21.3% | 21.9% | 19.5% |
| Free cash flow | 104.6 m | 284.0 m | 279.4 m | 284.2 m | 185.6 m | 199.1 m | 252.7 m | 238.6 m |
Reported results vs expectations
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Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025
- Cash
- 111.8 m USD
- Financial debt
- unavailable USD
- Net debt
- unavailable USD
- Equity
- 746.9 m USD
- Total assets
- 992.3 m USD
- Debt / equity
- unavailable
- Current ratio
- 3.65x
- ROE
- 28.2%
- ROA
- 21.5%
- FCF margin
- 21.6%
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (USD)
Margins
Income statement · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 844.1 m | 896.6 m | 911.3 m | 960.9 m | 1.0 bn | 1.1 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified |
| Operating income | 277.4 m | 282.2 m | 237.5 m | 249.3 m | 275.4 m | 265.9 m | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 20.8 m | 21.4 m | 22.1 m | 23.1 m | 27.8 m | 31.2 m | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified |
| EBITDA | 298.3 m ≈ | 303.6 m ≈ | 259.6 m ≈ | 272.4 m ≈ | 303.2 m ≈ | 297.1 m ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026derived |
| Interest expense | 4.4 m | 3.6 m | 2.0 k | 33.0 k | 4.0 k | — | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2025verified |
| Pre-tax income | 333.1 m | 331.3 m | 240.1 m | 259.7 m | 291.3 m | 279.9 m | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified |
| Income tax | 75.9 m | 70.9 m | 55.4 m | 54.7 m | 65.1 m | 63.7 m | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified |
| Net income | 257.2 m | 260.3 m | 184.7 m | 205.0 m | 226.2 m | 216.2 m | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | 5.45 | 5.92 | 5.73 | 6.80 | 7.73 | 7.71 | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified |
| Weighted average diluted shares | 47.2 m | 44.0 m | 32.2 m | 30.1 m | 29.3 m | 28.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating income + Depreciation & amortisation.
Balance sheet · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 245.8 m | 600.9 m | 120.4 m | 146.5 m | 324.6 m | 111.8 m | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified |
| Receivables | 62.2 m | 70.1 m | 77.4 m | 78.8 m | 82.9 m | 84.3 m | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified |
| Current assets | 333.7 m | 681.0 m | 273.3 m | 337.5 m | 420.0 m | 400.2 m | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | 128.7 m | 136.1 m | 147.5 m | 169.7 m | 176.8 m | 179.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified |
| Goodwill | 160.8 m | 160.8 m | 160.8 m | 160.8 m | 160.8 m | 160.8 m | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified |
| Intangibles (excl. goodwill) | 193.6 m | 185.2 m | 176.8 m | 168.4 m | 160.0 m | 151.5 m | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified |
| Total assets | 1.8 bn | 1.2 bn | 832.7 m | 930.5 m | 1.0 bn | 992.3 m | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified |
| Accounts payable | 16.6 m | 24.3 m | 20.0 m | 17.7 m | 26.7 m | 24.3 m | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified |
| Long-term debt | 107.8 m | — | — | — | — | — | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2021verified |
| Current liabilities | 118.7 m | 97.9 m | 99.7 m | 97.0 m | 111.0 m | 109.8 m | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified |
| Total liabilities | 270.3 m | 177.7 m | 195.1 m | 212.4 m | 234.6 m | 245.4 m | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified |
| Equity | 1.6 bn † | 1.0 bn † | 637.6 m † | 718.0 m † | 783.9 m † | 746.9 m † | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified |
† equity attributable to the parent's shareholders: in these years the issuer no longer reports the total including non-controlling interests.
Cash flow · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | 308.8 m | 313.1 m | 220.8 m | 243.7 m | 290.0 m | 273.5 m | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified |
| Capex | 29.4 m | 28.9 m | 35.2 m | 44.5 m | 37.2 m | 34.8 m | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified |
| Free cash flow | 279.4 m ≈ | 284.2 m ≈ | 185.6 m ≈ | 199.1 m ≈ | 252.7 m ≈ | 238.6 m ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026derived |
| Investing cash flow | -19.4 m | 951.0 m | -97.1 m | -80.5 m | 61.4 m | -221.6 m | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified |
| Financing cash flow | -166.3 m | -908.9 m | -604.2 m | -137.1 m | -173.2 m | -264.8 m | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified |
| Share repurchases | 134.0 m | 803.8 m | 604.2 m | 137.1 m | 173.2 m | 264.8 m | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating cash flow − Capex.
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
- score weight coverage: 58.3% of at least 60%
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 3.9 bn USD
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
58% · Insufficient data
Estimated value range
The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 54.02 – 142.32 USD.
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Method ranges (USD per share)
— — Mid · ▏ Price
Valuation methods
- DCF (discounted cash flow)unavailable · the reported interest expense is far older than the latest period (the filer changed its XBRL tag): a stale figure is not used
- Peers: EV/EBITDAunavailable · net debt missing: EV cannot be bridged to equity (missing debt is not zero)
- Peers: P/E54.02 – 142.32 (Mid 102.44)15 companies used · median multiple 12.4x · quartiles 6.5x – 17.2xAPEI, CVSA, IH, LAUR, LFS, LGCY, LINC, LRN, PRDO, PXED, STG, STRA, TAL, VSA, YOUL
- Dividend discount (DDM)unavailable · the company pays no dividend: a dividend model needs an explicit initiation assumption
Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 4.3%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 9.3%
- Terminal growth
- 2.5%
Factor scorecard
Insufficient data
Minimum-evidence gate: score weight coverage: 58.3% of at least 60%
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net margin · Quality | 19.6% | 89 (vs peers) | 11% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | 108.2% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 11% |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | 6.7% | 56 (on a fixed band) | 14% |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | 10.4% | 69 (on a fixed band) | 14% |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 2.8x | 100 (on a fixed band) | 7% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | 18.2x | 37 (vs peers) | 18% |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| FCF yield · Valuation | 6.2% | 77 (on a fixed band) | 14% |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | 8.7% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 11% |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet· partial100/100 · 1/3 factors with a value
- Growth62/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
- Quality95/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
- Returns· partial100/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
- Valuation55/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
GRAND CANYON EDUCATION, INC. (LOPE). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2026-06-30.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 1.1 bn USD in 2025; YoY growth 7.1%; net margin 19.6%; ROE 31.0%.
The estimated value range is 54.02–142.32 USD per share (median of 1 methods, agreement: single method); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 102.44 USD, the price of 150.67 USD leaves a potential of -32.0% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of -47.1% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
Insufficient data for a verdict (score weight coverage: 58.3% of at least 60%).
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- Net margin: 19.6%
- FCF conversion: 108.2%
- Current ratio: 2.8x
- FCF yield: 6.2%
- Shareholder yield (distributions): 8.7%
What contradicts it
- The price is above the estimated value range
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): ROIC, Net debt / EBITDA, Interest coverage, EV/EBITDA, Payout ratio (FCF).
Versus the vertical median
Services-Educational Services (SIC 8200) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 39 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDUNew Oriental Education & Technology Group Inc. | 80.7 bn | 169.7 | 12.4% | 8.4% | +15.5% | +2% / −36% |
| LAURLaureate Education, Inc. | 4.8 bn | 12.9 | 34.1% | 20.3% | +8.6% | +14% / +168% |
| CVSACovista Inc. | 4.1 bn | 17.0 | 17.9% | 12.8% | +9.3% | +34% / +118% |
| COE51Talk Online Education Group | 4.1 bn | — | — | -17.6% | +88.6% | −73% / +43% |
| LOPEGrand Canyon Education, Inc. | 3.9 bn | 18.2 | 31.0% | 19.6% | +7.1% | −18% / +10% |
| LRNStride, Inc. | 3.3 bn | 10.9 | 20.9% | 13.2% | +4.7% | +25% / +31% |
| NAMIJinxin Technology Holding Company | 2.6 bn | — | -89.7% | -22.8% | +6.1% | −89% / unavailable |
| DAOYoudao, Inc. | 2.5 bn | 159.2 | — | 1.6% | +9.6% | +105% / +397% |
| PRDOPerdoceo Education Corp | 1.9 bn | 10.9 | 17.6% | 20.6% | +24.2% | +7% / +72% |
| STRAStrategic Education, Inc. | 1.7 bn | 12.4 | 8.2% | 10.5% | +4.0% | −5% / −16% |
| YQ17 Education & Technology Group Inc. | 1.5 bn | — | -46.5% | -145.6% | −41.5% | −41% / +14% |
| UTIUniversal Technical Institute, Inc | 1.2 bn | 36.3 | 10.5% | 3.9% | +14.0% | −3% / +91% |
| PXEDPhoenix Education Partners, Inc. | 794.4 m | 9.5 | 30.1% | 8.7% | +1.0% | −36% / unavailable |
| APEIAmerican Public Education, Inc. | 776.2 m | 17.5 | 15.6% | 6.8% | +3.9% | +22% / +439% |
| LINCLincoln Educational Services Corporation | 637.9 m | 28.0 | 11.9% | 4.0% | +17.8% | −2% / +117% |
| JZJianzhi Education Technology Group Company Limited | 522.3 m | — | -44.4% | -22.4% | −70.6% | −98% / −100% |
| GOTUGaotu Techedu Inc. | 373.9 m | — | -20.8% | -5.3% | +40.9% | −0% / −9% |
| IHiHuman Inc. | 245.2 m | 22.8 | 10.0% | 11.8% | −8.7% | −60% / −59% |
| FEDUFour Seasons Education (Cayman) Inc. | 210.5 m | 46.6 | 6.8% | 12.1% | +7.6% | −30% / +13% |
| LXEHLixiang Education Holding Co. Ltd. | 155.2 m | — | -83.1% | -395.4% | −1.9% | −63% / −99% |
| LGCYLegacy Education Inc. | 118.1 m | 14.0 | 19.5% | 11.4% | +24.8% | −12% / unavailable |
| EEIQEpicQuest Education Group International Limited | 93.6 m | — | -34.8% | -27.2% | +9.6% | −23% / −81% |
| VSAVisionSys AI Inc | 81.8 m | 0.3 | — | 164,963.8% | −99.9% | −97% / −100% |
| CHGGChegg, Inc | 71.1 m | — | -30.7% | -17.2% | −39.0% | −34% / −94% |
| AMBOAmbow Education Holding Ltd. | 62.3 m | — | -2.9% | -2.6% | +0.8% | −61% / −10% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for LOPE from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (USD)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | 94.63 Total return -37% · Per year -37% | 167.13 Total return 11% · Per year 11% | 251.51 Total return 67% · Per year 67% |
| 3 years | 95.89 Total return -36% · Per year -14% | 190.17 Total return 26% · Per year 8% | 313.63 Total return 108% · Per year 28% |
| 5 years | 97.16 Total return -36% · Per year -8% | 216.38 Total return 44% · Per year 8% | 391.10 Total return 160% · Per year 21% |
- Exit P/E± 47.54
- Net margin± 33.28
- Annual revenue growth± 26.76
- Annual dilution± 2.80
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 30 Jul 2026; since then the company filed 8-K (04 Nov 2026 · results), 10-Q (04 Nov 2026).
In brief
Grand Canyon Education, Inc. (GCE) is an education services company that provides technology, academic services, counseling and marketing to university partners, mainly Grand Canyon University. The company reported service revenue of 1,106.1 million USD in fiscal 2025 and currently supports 20 university partners, which makes it relevant for those following the service-provider model for US higher education.
SWOT
Strengths
- A proprietary technology platform, with learning system, AI tools and in-house data infrastructure, that allows operations to scale 1.
- Steady enrollment growth, both in GCU programs and in healthcare off-campus sites 3.
- Rising operating margin in the first half of 2026, with full-year revenue guidance 3.
Weaknesses
- Heavy dependence on the contract with GCU, which accounts for a major share of revenue 1.
- GCE's chief executive is also president of GCU, which can create conflicts of interest even with safeguards in place 1.
- Revenue per student has been flat in some periods because of tariff shifts and contract adjustments 2.
Opportunities
Threats
Risks
- Dependence on GCUhigh
A large share of revenue comes from the contract with GCU. If GCU enrollment declines or the contract is not renewed, the impact on revenue could be significant 1.
- Conflict of interest at the topmedium
The chairman and chief executive of GCE is also president of GCU. Even with separation measures in place, the interests of the two entities could diverge over time 1.
- Incentive compensation ruleshigh
If authorities find that compensation practices breach recruitment rules, the company could face sanctions and significant litigation 1.
- Competition and pricing pressuremedium
Competition from other companies could attract university partners and reduce revenue through pressure on pricing 1.
- Systems and security risksmedium
System disruptions or data security breaches could affect partners' ability to attract and retain students 1.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- Steady growth in enrollment and revenue, together with positive guidance for the second half of 2026, could support continued expansion if the operating model remains effective 3.
- The proprietary technology platform and AI tools could help keep costs under control, which could support long-term margins 1.
- Expansion of healthcare programs could diversify revenue sources away from dependence on GCU 1.
What would break the thesis
- Heavy dependence on a single partner could expose the company to sudden declines if enrollment at GCU or the contract changes 1.
- Federal regulation and litigation over compensation could lead to sanctions or a change in the business model 1.
- Competition and changing student preferences could reduce revenue per student and the ability to attract new partners 2.
What to watch
- Delivery of third-quarter 2026 revenue guidanceQ3 2026
- Trends in GCU enrollment and the number of university partnersnext 10-K
- Changes in federal rules on recruitment and compensation2027
- Delivery of full-year 2026 service revenue guidanceQ4 2026
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 30 Jul 2026; since then the company filed 8-K (04 Nov 2026 · results), 10-Q (04 Nov 2026).
The business
GCE is a services company for universities that does not award its own degrees; it supplies technology infrastructure, academic and counseling services, and marketing and back-office support. Its most significant partner is Grand Canyon University (GCU), and as of December 31, 2025 the company served over 136,200 students, of whom more than 131,800 were enrolled in GCU programs 1. Revenue comes from a percentage of tuition and fee revenue under services agreements 1.
The technology platform includes the in-house Halo learning management system, AI tools such as the Mosaic platform, and two proprietary data centers, which allow processes to scale to large student numbers 1. The company says it has invested more than 350.0 million USD in technology over the last 17 years 1.
Beyond technology, GCE manages faculty recruiting and training, class scheduling, off-campus clinical and laboratory sites, admissions and financial aid counseling, and digital marketing and student acquisition campaigns 1.
Segments
Marketing and communication
The company provides lead acquisition, lifecycle communication, media and video production, and data analytics for its partners. This segment is a major part of operating costs 1.
Market context
GCE operates in the service market for US higher education, where universities outsource operational and marketing functions. The company points to financial pressure on universities and a declining number of high school graduates attending college as factors that shape demand 1.
Enrollment growth has come mainly from online programs and healthcare off-campus sites, where enrollments rose 16.8% in the second quarter of 2026 3. Guidance for the third quarter of 2026 calls for service revenue between 268.5 and 270.5 million USD 3.
Trends
- Growth of healthcare programstailwind
Expansion of healthcare programs such as ABSN through off-campus sites has raised revenue per student, according to the company 2. If demand for these programs holds, it could support revenue growth.
- Growth of online enrollmentmixed
GCU online enrollment rose during 2026, supporting the volume of services provided 3. However, a shift toward students with lower net tuition rates reduces revenue per student 2.
- Federal rules for higher educationheadwind
Department of Education rulemaking and rules on recruitment-linked payments could change the business model, and the company could face penalties if rules are breached 1. This is a pressure that could affect contract terms.
- Artificial intelligence in operationsmixed
GCE invests in AI tools for operational efficiency, marketing and academic support, which could lower processing costs if adoption succeeds 1. Results depend on implementation.
Competitive position
The company cites competition from other education services companies, both for students and for qualified personnel. Competition could lead to pricing pressure and to the loss of university partners to rivals 1.
Competition also appears in the marketing market for partner programs, where GCE must sustain its efficiency in student acquisition 2. Differentiation depends on technology scale and on the ability to add new partners 1.
- Other US university service providers
The sources do not name specific rivals but refer to education services companies in the same geographic region and sector.
- Emerging education services companies
The risk comes from new companies that could attract university partners with more favorable terms.
- Universities with in-house online programs
Universities that build their own online infrastructure could reduce the need for outside services.
- Admissions and financial counseling providers
Competition for students from providers specialized in admissions and financial counseling is noted among the risk factors.
Links, dependencies and risks
Who the company is tied to, from its own SEC filings (customers, suppliers, production, partners, competitors, countries, regulation), from the 5 %+ holders' statements (13D/13G) and from what other companies say about it. Click a node for its evidence; on a listed company the graph moves to it.
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News & filings
In the press
- Grand Canyon Education (LOPE): A Steady Cash-Generating Business Ignored in a Speculative MarketYahoo Finance — News · 01 Sept 2026 · EN
The latest news item in our archive is from 01 Sept 2026; the newest SEC filing is from 04 Nov 2026. The press archive comes from the RSS feeds we follow and does not necessarily cover the latest event — the filings alongside do.
SEC filings
- Quarterly report04 Nov 2026
- Current report04 Nov 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report01 Oct 2026Material agreement · Creation of a direct financial obligation · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report24 Aug 2026Departure or appointment of officers
- Quarterly report30 Jul 2026
- Current report30 Jul 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report25 Jun 2026Departure or appointment of officers
- Current report10 Jun 2026Shareholder vote · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report03 Jun 2026Regulation FD disclosure
- Quarterly report30 Apr 2026
Sources
- [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · SEC / Grand Canyon Education, Inc. · 18 Feb 2026
- [2] Form 10-Q, quarter ended 2026-06-30 · SEC / Grand Canyon Education, Inc. · 30 Jul 2026
- [3] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / Grand Canyon Education, Inc. · 30 Jul 2026
Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.