olivLaw · US equity research
Etsy, Inc. ETSY
Services-Business Services, NEC · SIC 7389 · Vertical: Services-Business Services, NEC (SIC 7389)
Etsy runs two-sided online marketplaces that connect independent creative sellers with buyers worldwide, and it is now trying to restart growth after selling Depop and reorganising internally. The company closed fiscal 2025 with gross merchandise sales of 11916.9 million USD and revenue of 2883.5 million USD, but weak discretionary spending has remained a pressure point.
The AI analysis may be outdated: new filings came after its sources (see the «AI analysis» section).
At the close of 04 Nov 2026, Etsy, Inc. (ETSY) stock was 96.24 USD (+7.10% on the day), with market capitalisation 8.3 bn USD, P/E 11.4 on diluted EPS of 8.44 USD over the last 12 months, beta 0.94, 52-week range 44.05–96.24 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q3 2026): revenue of 692.5 m USD (+10.9% YoY), net income of 853.5 m USD (+1,030.4% YoY), diluted EPS 7.31 USD.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
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Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 66.8
- strong (55–70)
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 75.22 – 97.53
- in the upper half of the band · %B 0.94 · band width 25.8%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 79.26 / 68.71
- uptrend (price > SMA50 > SMA200)
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- 4.27 / 3.70
- MACD above signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | S&P 500 | vs S&P 500 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | +35.8% | −1.1% | +36.9 pp | — |
| 3 months | +12.1% | −0.5% | +12.5 pp | — |
| 6 months | +48.1% | +4.4% | +43.7 pp | — |
| Year to date | +73.6% | +12.3% | +61.3 pp | — |
| 1 year | +65.2% | +13.5% | +51.6 pp | −3.2% |
| 3 years | +47.5% | +76.4% | −28.9 pp | +1.1% |
| 5 years | −63.0% | +63.7% | −126.7 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
Latest quarter: Q3 2026 · 30 Sept 2026
Quarterly margins
Quarterly statements · USD
| Fiscal year | Q4 '24 | Q1 '25 | Q2 '25 | Q3 '25 | Q4 '25 | Q1 '26 | Q2 '26 | Q3 '26 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 852.2 m | 612.2 m | 629.1 m | 624.2 m | 1.0 bn | 631.3 m | 668.3 m | 692.5 m |
| Cost of revenue | 217.7 m | 167.8 m | 168.6 m | 166.2 m | 315.1 m | 175.7 m | 184.3 m | 189.3 m |
| Gross profit | 634.5 m | 444.4 m | 460.5 m | 457.9 m | 702.9 m | 455.6 m | 484.0 m | 503.1 m |
| Research & development | 111.5 m | 100.8 m | 99.3 m | 99.8 m | 150.3 m | 99.1 m | 100.9 m | 110.8 m |
| Operating income | 155.1 m | -3.9 m | 94.1 m | 111.0 m | 65.0 m | 119.8 m | 125.3 m | 111.4 m |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 26.4 m | 17.2 m | 14.6 m ≈ | 13.3 m ≈ | 56.8 m | 15.3 m | 15.2 m ≈ | 16.1 m ≈ |
| Interest expense | 3.4 m | — | 3.8 m | 5.7 m | 5.6 m | — | 5.6 m | 5.6 m |
| Pre-tax income | 178.3 m | -14.6 m | 68.9 m | 120.2 m | 72.2 m | 129.3 m | 135.0 m | 128.7 m |
| Income tax | 48.4 m | 20.5 m | 23.3 m | 15.6 m | 24.4 m | 24.6 m | 20.6 m | 15.1 m |
| Net income | 129.9 m | -52.1 m | 28.8 m | 75.5 m | 110.7 m | 69.7 m | -46.7 m | 853.5 m |
| Diluted EPS | 1.02 ≈ | -0.49 | 0.25 | 0.63 | 0.89 ≈ | 0.60 | -0.36 | 7.31 |
| Operating cash flow | 315.0 m | 49.2 m | 108.1 m ≈ | 219.0 m ≈ | 317.1 m | 80.7 m | 40.6 m ≈ | 159.7 m ≈ |
| Capex | 4.0 m | 3.2 m | 6.9 m ≈ | 3.8 m ≈ | 1.5 m | 1.5 m | 1.2 m ≈ | 1.4 m ≈ |
| Share repurchases | 259.6 m | 189.2 m | 334.7 m ≈ | 119.8 m ≈ | 133.2 m | 145.2 m | 249.7 m ≈ | 394.5 m ≈ |
≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Today's P/E sits at the 3 percentile of its own 33-quarter history (min 8.5, median 47.1, max 135.5; quarters with earnings only).
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 603.7 m | 818.4 m | 1.7 bn | 2.3 bn | 2.6 bn | 2.7 bn | 2.8 bn | 2.9 bn |
| Revenue YoY | +36.8% | +35.6% | +110.9% | +35.0% | +10.2% | +7.1% | +2.2% | +2.7% |
| Net income | 77.5 m | 95.9 m | 349.2 m | 493.5 m | -694.3 m | 307.6 m | 303.3 m | 163.0 m |
| Net income YoY | −5.3% | +23.7% | +264.2% | +41.3% | −240.7% | unavailable | −1.4% | −46.3% |
| Diluted EPS | 0.61 | 0.76 | 2.69 | 3.40 | -5.48 | 2.24 | 2.35 | 1.39 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | −10.3% | +24.6% | +253.9% | +26.4% | −261.2% | unavailable | +4.9% | −40.9% |
| net % | 12.8% | 11.7% | 20.2% | 21.2% | -27.1% | 11.2% | 10.8% | 5.7% |
| Free cash flow | 197.9 m | 199.4 m | 677.5 m | 640.3 m | 673.4 m | 692.6 m | 738.3 m | 678.0 m |
Reported results vs expectations
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Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025
- Cash
- 1.4 bn USD
- Financial debt
- 3.0 bn USD
- Net debt
- 1.6 bn USD
- Equity
- -1.1 bn USD
- Total assets
- 2.8 bn USD
- Debt / equity
- unavailable
- Current ratio
- 1.44x
- ROE
- unavailable
- ROA
- 6.2%
- FCF margin
- 23.5%
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (USD)
Margins
Income statement · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 1.7 bn | 2.3 bn | 2.6 bn | 2.7 bn | 2.8 bn | 2.9 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified |
| Cost of revenue | 464.7 m | 654.5 m | 744.6 m | 828.7 m | 774.6 m | 817.8 m | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified |
| Gross profit | 1.3 bn | 1.7 bn | 1.8 bn | 1.9 bn | 2.0 bn | 2.1 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified |
| Research & development | 180.1 m | 271.5 m | 412.4 m | 469.3 m | 443.1 m | 450.2 m | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified |
| Operating income | 424.0 m | 465.7 m | -658.6 m | 279.8 m | 380.2 m | 266.2 m | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 58.2 m | 74.3 m | 96.7 m | 91.3 m | 108.1 m | 101.8 m | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified |
| EBITDA | 482.2 m ≈ | 540.0 m ≈ | -561.9 m ≈ | 371.2 m ≈ | 488.3 m ≈ | 368.1 m ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026derived |
| Interest expense | 42.0 m | 9.9 m | 14.2 m | 14.0 m | 13.8 m | 18.5 m | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified |
| Pre-tax income | 365.7 m | 471.7 m | -662.0 m | 292.8 m | 410.8 m | 246.7 m | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified |
| Income tax | 16.5 m | -21.9 m | 32.3 m | -14.7 m | 107.5 m | 83.7 m | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified |
| Net income | 349.2 m | 493.5 m | -694.3 m | 307.6 m | 303.3 m | 163.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | 2.69 | 3.40 | -5.48 | 2.24 | 2.35 | 1.39 | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified |
| Weighted average diluted shares | 136.4 m | 146.7 m | 126.8 m | 140.1 m | 131.7 m | 124.1 m | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating income + Depreciation & amortisation.
Balance sheet · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 1.2 bn | 780.2 m | 921.3 m | 914.3 m | 811.2 m | 1.4 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 29 Apr 2026verified |
| Receivables | 22.6 m | 27.3 m | 27.9 m | 24.7 m | 8.7 m | 8.7 m | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified |
| Current assets | 1.9 bn | 1.3 bn | 1.5 bn | 1.6 bn | 1.3 bn | 2.0 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified |
| Goodwill | 140.8 m | 1.4 bn | 137.7 m | 138.4 m | 137.1 m | 38.1 m | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified |
| Intangibles (excl. goodwill) | 187.4 m | 607.2 m | 535.4 m | 457.1 m | 413.9 m | 14.5 m | SEC (XBRL)· 29 Apr 2026verified |
| Total assets | 2.4 bn | 3.8 bn | 2.6 bn | 2.7 bn | 2.4 bn | 2.8 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified |
| Accounts payable | 40.9 m | 28.0 m | 28.8 m | 29.9 m | 26.0 m | 27.7 m | SEC (XBRL)· 29 Apr 2026verified |
| Short-term debt | — | — | — | — | 0 | 649.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified |
| Long-term debt | 1.1 bn | 2.3 bn | 2.3 bn | 2.3 bn | 2.3 bn | 2.3 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified |
| Current liabilities | 454.7 m | 615.6 m | 631.8 m | 710.8 m | 665.1 m | 1.4 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified |
| Total liabilities | 1.7 bn | 3.2 bn | 3.2 bn | 3.2 bn | 3.2 bn | 3.9 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified |
| Equity | 742.4 m † | 628.6 m † | -547.3 m † | -543.7 m † | -758.9 m † | -1.1 bn † | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified |
† equity attributable to the parent's shareholders: in these years the issuer no longer reports the total including non-controlling interests.
Cash flow · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | 679.0 m | 651.6 m | 683.6 m | 705.5 m | 752.5 m | 693.4 m | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified |
| Capex | 1.4 m | 11.2 m | 10.2 m | 13.0 m | 14.2 m | 15.4 m | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified |
| Free cash flow | 677.5 m ≈ | 640.3 m ≈ | 673.4 m ≈ | 692.6 m ≈ | 738.3 m ≈ | 678.0 m ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026derived |
| Investing cash flow | -11.4 m | -1.6 bn | -30.0 m | -73.3 m | -53.1 m | 32.1 m | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified |
| Financing cash flow | 119.3 m | 452.7 m | -506.5 m | -656.5 m | -787.2 m | -169.9 m | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified |
| Share repurchases | 268.7 m | 302.8 m | 425.7 m | 577.0 m | 723.9 m | 776.9 m | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating cash flow − Capex.
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
Score: 68 / 100
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
score >= 65 · margin_of_safety >= 0.15 · agreement in ['high', 'medium']
Closing price
04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 8.3 bn USD
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
- Balance sheet66
- Growth33
- Quality64
- Returns100
- Valuation73
Estimated value range
The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 84.95 – 345.75 USD.
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Method ranges (USD per share)
— — Mid · ▏ Price
Valuation methods
- DCF (discounted cash flow)96.29 – 167.81 (Mid 122.59)WACC 8.1% · starting FCFF 610.9 m USD · terminal value share of EV 77%The WACC × g sensitivity gives the method's bounds; these are not probabilities.Reverse DCF: starting growth implied by the price (fading linearly to terminal growth, everything else fixed): -5.3%
- Peers: EV/EBITDA84.95 – 100.85 (Mid 93.83)10 companies used · median multiple 17.2x · quartiles 15.7x – 18.3xBR, CPAY, EBAY, FICO, GPN, QNST, RBA, RELY, TIC, UBER
- Peers: P/E144.94 – 345.75 (Mid 241.28)22 companies used · median multiple 28.6x · quartiles 17.2x – 41.0xACN, AKAM, BR, CPAY, EBAY, FICO, FIS, FVRR, GRAB, LQDT, MA, MAX, MELI, MSCI, PAY, POWW, PYPL, QNST, RBA, RELY, SEZL, UBER
- Dividend discount (DDM)unavailable · the company pays no dividend: a dividend model needs an explicit initiation assumption
Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 4.3%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 9.3%
- Terminal growth
- 2.5%
Factor scorecard
Attractive profile · Score 68/100
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net margin · Quality | 32.8% | 85 (vs peers) | 8% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | 60.0% | 43 (on a fixed band) | 8% |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | 4.0% | 33 (on a fixed band) | 11% |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | 1.8x | 53 (vs peers) | 14% |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | 18.7x | 100 (on a fixed band) | 8% |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 1.4x | 47 (on a fixed band) | 5% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | 11.4x | 91 (vs peers) | 14% |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | 17.6x | 43 (vs peers) | 14% |
| FCF yield · Valuation | 7.1% | 89 (on a fixed band) | 11% |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | 11.1% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 8% |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet66/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
- Growth· partial33/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
- Quality64/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
- Returns· partial100/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
- Valuation73/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
ETSY, INC (ETSY). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2026-09-30.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 2.9 bn USD in 2025; YoY growth 2.7%; net margin 32.8%; net debt/EBITDA 1.8x.
The estimated value range is 96.29–167.81 USD per share (median of 3 methods, agreement: medium); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 122.59 USD, the price of 96.24 USD leaves a potential of 27.4% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of 21.5% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
olivLaw score 68/100, methodological classification: attractive profile (score, margin of safety and method agreement together; not a judgement of the right price). Groups assessed only in part: growth, returns. Not investment advice.
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- Net margin: 32.8%
- Interest coverage: 18.7x
- P/E (TTM): 11.4x
- FCF yield: 7.1%
- Shareholder yield (distributions): 11.1%
- The price is below the estimated value range
What contradicts it
No signal among the computed factors. That is not an absence of risk: factors without data were not assessed, and business risks (margins, inventory, demand) are in the source-based analysis.
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): ROIC, EPS CAGR 3Y, Payout ratio (FCF).
Versus the vertical median
Services-Business Services, NEC (SIC 7389) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 39 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UBERUber Technologies, Inc. | 142.7 bn | 41.3 | 12.4% | 6.1% | +18.3% | −20% / +24% |
| MELIMercadoLibre, Inc. | 88.2 bn | 47.3 | 27.5% | 5.3% | +39.1% | −16% / +7% |
| EBAYeBay Inc. | 54.9 bn | 27.2 | 46.6% | 16.9% | +7.9% | +51% / +205% |
| PYPLPayPal Holdings, Inc. | 50.0 bn | 11.5 | 23.8% | 13.8% | +4.3% | −4% / +4% |
| MSCIMsci Inc. | 48.2 bn | 35.7 | — | 40.3% | +9.7% | +20% / +29% |
| FISVFiserv, Inc. | 33.0 bn | — | -17.0% | -18.9% | +3.6% | +1% / −52% |
| CPAYCorpay, Inc | 27.5 bn | 25.4 | 30.5% | 22.7% | +13.9% | +42% / +74% |
| GPNGlobal Payments Inc. | 25.4 bn | — | -4.1% | -9.1% | −0.4% | +27% / −17% |
| BRBroadridge Financial Solutions, Inc. | 21.4 bn | 20.9 | 40.2% | 13.9% | +8.5% | −17% / −2% |
| RBARB Global, Inc | 17.6 bn | 39.9 | 8.8% | 10.0% | +7.2% | −3% / +49% |
| FISFidelity National Information Services, Inc. | 15.3 bn | 4.4 | 23.0% | 26.8% | +5.4% | −55% / −49% |
| FICOFair Isaac Corp | 15.1 bn | 20.3 | — | 34.1% | +15.9% | −61% / −36% |
| AKAMAkamai Technologies, Inc | 12.3 bn | 30.9 | 8.9% | 9.5% | +5.4% | −4% / −26% |
| ETSYEtsy, Inc | 8.3 bn | 11.4 | — | 32.8% | +2.7% | +65% / +47% |
| RELYRemitly Global, Inc. | 5.8 bn | 16.4 | 35.9% | 19.1% | +29.4% | +100% / +26% |
| SEZLSezzle Inc. | 4.6 bn | 30.0 | 88.9% | 30.4% | +66.1% | +121% / +8,110% |
| TICTIC Solutions, Inc. | 2.3 bn | — | -7.1% | -5.6% | unavailable | +10% / unavailable |
| ACVACopart Inc | 1.8 bn | — | -15.1% | -7.9% | +19.2% | +16% / −21% |
| LQDTLiquidity Services, Inc | 1.5 bn | 45.8 | 15.0% | 6.8% | +31.2% | +56% / +144% |
| QNSTQuinStreet, Inc. | 1.1 bn | 13.8 | 28.6% | 6.3% | +18.3% | +38% / +54% |
| CTEVClaritev Corporation | 367.3 m | — | — | -28.5% | +3.7% | −60% / −58% |
| FVRRFiverr International Ltd. | 314.4 m | 15.6 | 5.4% | 4.9% | +10.1% | −58% / −67% |
| POWWOutdoor Holding Company | 278.4 m | 70.8 | 2.8% | 12.1% | +3.5% | +30% / +18% |
| ZHZhihu Inc. | 159.4 m | — | -5.0% | -7.1% | −20.3% | −27% / −38% |
| RGPResources Connection, Inc. | 93.7 m | — | -25.1% | -10.7% | −18.0% | −44% / −80% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for ETSY from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (USD)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | 76.77 Total return -20% · Per year -20% | 135.76 Total return 41% · Per year 41% | 204.55 Total return 113% · Per year 113% |
| 3 years | 73.71 Total return -23% · Per year -9% | 146.74 Total return 52% · Per year 15% | 242.86 Total return 152% · Per year 36% |
| 5 years | 70.77 Total return -26% · Per year -6% | 158.60 Total return 65% · Per year 11% | 288.35 Total return 200% · Per year 25% |
- Exit P/E± 36.68
- Net margin± 25.68
- Annual revenue growth± 21.19
- Annual dilution± 2.16
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 05 Aug 2026; since then the company filed 8-K (28 Oct 2026 · results), 10-Q (28 Oct 2026).
In brief
Etsy runs two-sided online marketplaces that connect independent creative sellers with buyers worldwide, and it is now trying to restart growth after selling Depop and reorganising internally. The company closed fiscal 2025 with gross merchandise sales of 11916.9 million USD and revenue of 2883.5 million USD, but weak discretionary spending has remained a pressure point.
SWOT
Strengths
- An asset-light two-sided model and a range of unique, personalised and handmade goods that large generalist platforms find hard to copy 1.
- Strong cash generation and a high cash balance that allow investment and share repurchases 1.
- Rising services revenue and growing adjusted margins in the first half of 2026 2.
Weaknesses
Opportunities
Risks
- Volatile quarterly resultsmedium
Results and key metrics can fluctuate sharply due to macroeconomic conditions, seasonality and the success of new products 1.
- Missing public guidancemedium
If published projections are not met, the share price could fall and investor confidence could weaken 1.
- Trust and safety on the platformhigh
If fraud or unsafe products spread, buyers and sellers could leave and the brand reputation would suffer 1.
- Dependence on the most active usershigh
Most GMS comes from a narrow group of buyers and sellers; losing them would directly affect results 1.
- Cross-border trade and tariffsmedium
Uncertainty around tariffs and customs exemptions could reduce demand outside the United States and international sales revenue 1.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- If GMS growth in the Etsy marketplace consolidates after three positive quarters, the company could return to sustained volume growth 2.
- Rising services revenue and adjusted margins suggest the business model can convert growth into profit efficiently 12.
- The Depop sale and the new repurchase authorisation could focus capital on the core marketplace if execution is sound 23.
What would break the thesis
- If active buyers keep declining, growth in advertising revenue may not offset lost volume 1.
- The reorganisation and workforce reduction could bring transition costs and execution risk in the coming period 2.
- Competition from large marketplaces and new discovery channels could reduce the company's market share 12.
What to watch
- Evolution of GMS and active buyers on the Etsy marketplaceQ3 2026
- Completion of the workforce reduction and restructuring costsQ3 2026
- Updated 2026 guidance and use of Depop sale proceedsnext 10-K
- Trend in services revenue and average price per clickQ4 2026
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 05 Aug 2026; since then the company filed 8-K (28 Oct 2026 · results), 10-Q (28 Oct 2026).
The business
Etsy operates two marketplaces under a two-sided model that links independent creators with buyers. Revenue comes mainly from transaction fees, payment processing and listing fees, supplemented by optional services such as on-site ads and shipping labels. The company holds no physical inventory, giving it an asset-light model; in 2025 it generated 693.4 million USD from operations. The sale of Depop to eBay for 1.2 billion USD closed on July 30, 2026 12.
Segments
Market context
The company estimates e-commerce in its core geographies will grow at a 7% compound annual rate through 2029, and the online market relevant to Etsy is about 600 billion USD, or about 2 trillion USD including offline sales. Etsy marketplace GMS in 2025 represented roughly 2% of that online opportunity, which points to room for growth if the company can regain buyers 1.
Trends
- Pressure on discretionary spendingheadwind
Spending on discretionary goods was weak in 2025 and Etsy marketplace GMS declined. If macroeconomic conditions stay difficult, the recovery in volume could be slower than expected 1.
- Tariff and cross-border trade uncertaintyheadwind
Changes to tariffs and de minimis exemptions could reduce demand or complicate cross-border sales by sellers, which directly affects the buyer base outside the United States 1.
- Monetisation through services and adsmixed
Growth in advertising revenue, supported by better ad relevance and machine-learning ranking optimisations, shows revenue can rise even as volume falls. The effect depends on keeping campaigns efficient 12.
Competitive position
Etsy competes with general e-commerce platforms as well as resale and handmade marketplaces. Its differentiation lies in unique and personalised goods, but the risk is that larger platforms attract buyers with lower prices and faster delivery. The reviewed filings give no detailed picture of named competitors.
- eBayEBAY
Acquirer of the Depop fashion resale platform for 1.2 billion USD, which makes it a direct competitor in resale 1.
- General e-commerce marketplaces
Large marketplaces competing on fast delivery and price, a risk the company cites explicitly in its risk factors 1.
- Social and streaming platforms with integrated commerce
Channels competing for younger buyers' attention, where Etsy aims to be present more often 1.
- AI-based conversational shopping assistants
New intermediaries that could reduce buyers' direct access to Etsy listings; the company is already testing its own experiences 2.
Links, dependencies and risks
Who the company is tied to, from its own SEC filings (customers, suppliers, production, partners, competitors, countries, regulation), from the 5 %+ holders' statements (13D/13G) and from what other companies say about it. Click a node for its evidence; on a listed company the graph moves to it.
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News & filings
In the press
- Etsy is cracking down on AI slop listingsThe Verge · 23 Oct 2026 · EN
- Etsy bans AI-generated recipes and patterns from its online marketplaceCNBC World · 22 Oct 2026 · EN
- ETSY Gets a Bullish Upgrade: What Investors Should KnowYahoo Finance — News · 17 Sept 2026 · EN
- Here are Tuesday's biggest analyst calls: Nvidia, Apple, AMD, Etsy, Eli Lilly, Samsara & moreCNBC — Top News · 15 Sept 2026 · EN
- Stocks making the biggest moves premarket: Dave & Buster's, Enova, Etsy & moreCNBC — Top News · 15 Sept 2026 · EN
- Etsy Stock Pullback Could Be a Buying OpportunityYahoo Finance — News · 09 Sept 2026 · EN
- Shopify Sinks 7%, Etsy Drops 6%: Is This an E-Commerce Selloff or Just Two Names?Yahoo Finance — News · 08 Sept 2026 · EN
- Shopify Falls 4% as Profit Taking Follows 18% Monthly Run, eBay and Etsy SlipYahoo Finance — News · 31 Aug 2026 · EN
The latest news item in our archive is from 23 Oct 2026; the newest SEC filing is from 28 Oct 2026. The press archive comes from the RSS feeds we follow and does not necessarily cover the latest event — the filings alongside do.
SEC filings
- Quarterly report28 Oct 2026
- Current report28 Oct 2026Results of operations · Departure or appointment of officers · Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
- Quarterly report05 Aug 2026
- Current report05 Aug 2026Results of operations · Exit or disposal costs · Regulation FD disclosure · Other events · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report30 Jul 2026Material agreement · Acquisition or disposition of assets · Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report16 Jul 2026Material agreement · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report12 Jun 2026Shareholder vote · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report28 May 2026Material agreement · Financial statements and exhibits
- Quarterly report29 Apr 2026
- Current report29 Apr 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
Sources
- [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · SEC / Etsy, Inc. · 19 Feb 2026
- [2] Form 10-Q, quarter ended 2026-06-30 · SEC / Etsy, Inc. · 05 Aug 2026
- [3] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / Etsy, Inc. · 05 Aug 2026
Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.