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olivLaw · US equity research

GCM Grosvenor Inc. GCMG

Investment Advice · SIC 6282 · Vertical: Investment Advice (SIC 6282)

13.03USD+2.28% · 1 dayClose 04 Nov 2026

GCM Grosvenor is a global alternative asset management solutions provider investing across private equity, infrastructure, real estate, credit and absolute return strategies. It managed about 90.9 billion USD of assets at the end of 2025, and its second quarter 2026 results showed higher fee-related earnings, which makes it relevant as institutional investors keep allocating to alternatives.

At the close of 04 Nov 2026, GCM Grosvenor Inc. (GCMG) stock was 13.03 USD (+2.28% on the day), with market capitalisation 550.6 m USD, P/E 30.0 on diluted EPS of 0.43 USD over the last 12 months, dividend yield 3.45%, beta 0.74, 52-week range 9.45–14.05 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q2 2026): revenue of 134.3 m USD (+12.3% YoY), net income of 9.6 m USD (−38.0% YoY), diluted EPS 0.12 USD.

Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.

Market cap
550.6 m USD
shares as of 18 Nov 2020
P/E (TTM)
30.0
Diluted EPS TTM 0.43 · TTM to 30 Jun 2026
E/P (TTM)
3.34%
TTM to 30 Jun 2026
Dividend yield
3.45%
DPS 12m 0.45
Beta (2y)
0.74
Volatility (1y) 35%
52-week range
9.4514.05

Price history

Loading chart…

Technical reading

RSI (14)
55.8
strong (55–70)
Bollinger (20, 2)
12.05 – 13.26
in the upper half of the band · %B 0.81 · band width 9.6%
SMA 50 / 200
12.91 / 11.90
uptrend (price > SMA50 > SMA200)
MACD (12, 26, 9)
-0.05 / -0.13
MACD above signal

Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).

Performance

CompanyS&P 500vs S&P 500Vertical median
1 month−1.1%−1.1%−0.0 pp—
3 months−3.0%−0.5%−2.5 pp—
6 months+15.5%+4.4%+11.1 pp—
Year to date+15.1%+12.3%+2.8 pp—
1 year+13.4%+13.5%−0.1 pp−2.5%
3 years+54.2%+76.4%−22.2 pp+24.7%
5 years+9.0%+63.7%−54.6 pp—
Max drawdown (1y)
−21.5%
13 Feb 2026 → 27 Mar 2026
Max drawdown (5y)
−46.7%
11 Nov 2021 → 16 Jun 2022
Compound annual growth (5y)
+1.7%
S&P 500 +10.4%

Price returns, dividends excluded.

Quarterly results

Latest quarter: Q2 2026 · 30 Jun 2026

Revenue
134.3 m USD
+12.3% YoY
Net income
9.6 m USD
−38.0% YoY
Diluted EPS
0.12
+140.0% YoY
net / operating
7.1% / 26.4%

Quarterly margins

Quarterly statements · USD

Fiscal yearQ3 '24Q4 '24Q1 '25Q2 '25Q3 '25Q4 '25Q1 '26Q2 '26
Revenue122.9 m165.3 m125.8 m119.7 m135.0 m177.1 m124.8 m134.3 m
SG&A24.6 m26.3 m28.3 m25.5 m24.7 m26.3 m28.9 m27.7 m
Operating income25.0 m43.6 m15.3 m19.2 m44.2 m54.7 m20.5 m35.5 m
Depreciation & amortisation1.0 m ≈998.0 k1.0 m1.2 m ≈1.2 m ≈1.1 m920.0 k1.0 m ≈
Interest expense5.9 m6.2 m——5.6 m5.6 m——
Pre-tax income15.3 m36.4 m2.5 m39.7 m48.7 m64.0 m20.9 m35.5 m
Income tax3.2 m6.0 m3.6 m-202.0 k3.6 m5.9 m3.1 m3.7 m
Net income4.2 m7.6 m463.0 k15.4 m10.5 m19.0 m5.5 m9.6 m
Diluted EPS0.030.04 ≈-0.020.050.160.09 ≈0.060.12
Operating cash flow69.0 m ≈38.1 m33.3 m42.0 m ≈79.8 m ≈28.5 m51.7 m38.1 m ≈
Capex6.7 m ≈1.1 m1.2 m1.2 m ≈1.5 m ≈4.6 m3.8 m1.9 m ≈
Dividends paid5.3 m ≈4.9 m5.1 m7.0 m ≈5.9 m ≈7.4 m7.5 m9.2 m ≈
Share repurchases0 ≈000 ≈——17.5 m2.2 m ≈

≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)

E/P over time

E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.

Today's P/E sits at the 31 percentile of its own 13-quarter history (min 21.8, median 52.7, max 2,410.9; quarters with earnings only).

Fiscal years

Fiscal year20182019202020212022202320242025
Revenue378.5 m416.4 m430.0 m531.6 m446.5 m445.0 m514.0 m557.6 m
Revenue YoYunavailable+10.0%+3.3%+23.6%−16.0%−0.3%+15.5%+8.5%
Net income004.0 m21.5 m19.8 m12.8 m18.7 m45.4 m
Net income YoYunavailableunavailableunavailable+430.6%−7.7%−35.5%+46.4%+142.7%
Diluted EPS0.000.00-0.580.280.28-0.280.030.42
Diluted EPS YoYunavailableunavailableunavailableunavailable0.0%−200.0%unavailable+1,300.0%
net %0.0%0.0%0.9%4.0%4.4%2.9%3.6%8.1%
Free cash flow116.2 m92.2 m66.9 m178.2 m215.7 m88.3 m132.0 m175.0 m

Reported results vs expectations

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Balance sheet & financial health

Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025

Cash
242.1 m USD
Financial debt
428.4 m USD
Net debt
186.3 m USD
Equity
127.4 m USD
Total assets
813.8 m USD
Debt / equity
3.36x
Current ratio
unavailable
ROE
unavailable
ROA
6.4%
FCF margin
31.4%

Financial statements (source on every figure)

Revenue and net income (USD)

Margins

Income statement · USD

Revenue
2023
445.0 m
2024
514.0 m
2025
557.6 m

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified

SG&A
2023
100.8 m
2024
104.3 m
2025
104.8 m

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified

Operating income
2023
-11.8 m
2024
73.5 m
2025
133.5 m

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified

Depreciation & amortisation
2023
2.7 m
2024
3.3 m
2025
4.4 m

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified

EBITDA
2023
-9.2 m ≈
2024
76.8 m ≈
2025
137.9 m ≈

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026derived

Interest expense
2023
23.7 m
2024
24.2 m
2025
22.8 m

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified

Pre-tax income
2023
-21.5 m
2024
50.2 m
2025
154.9 m

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified

Income tax
2023
7.7 m
2024
13.6 m
2025
12.9 m

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified

Net income
2023
12.8 m
2024
18.7 m
2025
45.4 m

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified

Diluted EPS
2023
-0.28
2024
0.03
2025
0.42

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified

Weighted average diluted shares
2023
187.4 m
2024
190.6 m
2025
197.3 m

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified

Dividend per share
2023
0.44
2024
0.44
2025
0.45

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified

Balance sheet · USD

Cash
2023
44.4 m
2024
89.5 m
2025
242.1 m

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified

Property, plant & equipment, net
2023
7.4 m
2024
22.7 m
2025
29.9 m

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified

Goodwill
2023
29.0 m
2024
29.0 m
2025
29.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified

Intangibles (excl. goodwill)
2023
2.6 m
2024
1.3 m
2025
0

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified

Total assets
2023
504.9 m
2024
612.7 m
2025
813.8 m

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified

Long-term debt
2023
384.7 m
2024
432.0 m
2025
428.4 m

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified

Total liabilities
2023
616.2 m
2024
703.1 m
2025
686.3 m

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified

Equity
2023
-111.2 m
2024
-90.3 m
2025
127.4 m

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified

Cash flow · USD

Operating cash flow
2023
92.1 m
2024
148.8 m
2025
183.5 m

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified

Capex
2023
3.8 m
2024
16.7 m
2025
8.5 m

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified

Free cash flow
2023
88.3 m ≈
2024
132.0 m ≈
2025
175.0 m ≈

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026derived

Investing cash flow
2023
-18.8 m
2024
-31.8 m
2025
-26.5 m

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified

Financing cash flow
2023
-113.7 m
2024
-70.4 m
2025
-4.9 m

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified

Dividends paid
2023
20.3 m
2024
20.5 m
2025
25.3 m

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified

Share repurchases
2023
4.5 m
2024
0
2025
30.7 m

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified

Computed indicators

Growth

Revenue growth (YoY)
8.5%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Revenue CAGR 3Y
7.7%
computed by olivLawFY 2022 → FY 2025
Revenue CAGR 5Y
5.3%
computed by olivLawFY 2020 → FY 2025
EBIT growth (YoY)
81.6%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Net income growth (YoY)
142.7%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Net income CAGR 3Y
31.8%
computed by olivLawFY 2022 → FY 2025
Net income CAGR 5Y
62.1%
computed by olivLawFY 2020 → FY 2025
EPS growth (YoY)
1,300.0%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
EPS CAGR 3Y
14.5%
computed by olivLawFY 2022 → FY 2025
EPS CAGR 5Y
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
FCF growth (YoY)
32.6%
computed by olivLawFY 2025

Profitability

Gross margin
unavailable
input data missing
EBITDA margin
27.8%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
EBIT margin
27.1%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Net margin
7.8%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
FCF margin
32.6%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026

Returns

ROE
682.1%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
ROA
6.8%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
ROIC
45.3%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
ROCE
unavailable
input data missing
Payout ratio (EPS)
103.5%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Payout ratio (FCF)
16.1%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026

Balance sheet

Net debt
222.4 m USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Net debt / EBITDA
1.4x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Debt / equity
14.3x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Interest coverage
6.8x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026

Liquidity

Current ratio
unavailable
input data missing
Quick ratio
unavailable
input data missing
Cash ratio
unavailable
input data missing

Cash

Operating cash flow
198.1 m USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Capital expenditure
11.8 m USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Free cash flow
186.3 m USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
FCF conversion
418.7%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Cash conversion
124.6%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026

Efficiency

Days sales outstanding
unavailable
input data missing
Days inventory outstanding
unavailable
input data missing
Days payables outstanding
unavailable
input data missing
Cash conversion cycle
unavailable
input data missing

Market and valuation

Market capitalisation
550.6 m USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Enterprise value
773.1 m USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Market cap / net income TTM
12.4x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
P/E (TTM)
30.0x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Earnings yield
3.3%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
P/B
21.7x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
P/S
1.0x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
EV/EBITDA
4.9x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
EV/EBIT
5.0x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
EV/Sales
1.4x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
P/FCF
3.0x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
FCF yield
33.8%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Dividend yield
3.5%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Shareholder yield (distributions)
14.6%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026

1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.

Valuation

olivLaw classification

Neutral profile

Score: 76 / 100

A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.

Closing price

13.03 USD

04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series

Market cap: 550.6 m USD

Key indicators

Market capitalisation
550.6 m USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
P/E (TTM)
30.0x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
P/B
21.7x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
EV/EBITDA
4.9x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
ROE
682.1%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Net margin
7.8%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Revenue growth (YoY)
8.5%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Dividend yield
3.5%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026

Coverage and freshness

27/37 reporting lines present
Latest full fiscal year: 2025
Latest reported period: 30 Jun 2026
Latest balance sheet date: 30 Jun 2026
Share count (cover of the latest filing), as of: 18 Nov 2020
Source: SEC (XBRL)published 10 Aug 2026
verified 850derived 82

Score by group

  • Balance sheet57
  • Growth80
  • Quality76
  • Returns100
  • Valuation74

Estimated value range

Low
17.81
USD per share
Mid
24.10
USD per share
High
29.54
USD per share
Price: 13.03 USD
The price is below the range
Potential to the central value: 85.0% (value / price − 1)
Margin of safety: 45.9% (1 − price / value)
Agreement between methods: low · 4 methods used · 3 independent bases

The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 5.16 – 142.50 USD.

Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.

Method ranges (USD per share)

— — Mid · ▏ Price

Valuation methods

  • DCF (discounted cash flow)79.57 – 142.50 (Mid 102.11)
    WACC 7.8% · starting FCFF 206.9 m USD · terminal value share of EV 78%
    The WACC × g sensitivity gives the method's bounds; these are not probabilities.
    Reverse DCF: no growth between −30% and +40% justifies the price
  • Peers: EV/EBITDA29.71 – 46.54 (Mid 38.91)
    7 companies used · median multiple 11.7x · quartiles 9.3x – 13.8x
    ABX, APAM, BEN, LAZ, MORN, VCTR, VRTS
  • Peers: P/E5.16 – 12.55 (Mid 9.29)
    29 companies used · median multiple 21.4x · quartiles 11.9x – 28.9x
    AAMI, ABX, AMG, AMP, APAM, APO, BEN, BVC, BX, CG, CNS, EVR, FHI, GROW, HLI, HNNA, KKR, LAZ, MORN, NOAH, PAX, PJT, RILY, RPC, TROW, VALU, VCTR, VRTS, WHG
  • Dividend discount (DDM)5.91 – 7.95 (Mid 6.78)
Multiple comparisons use the SIC vertical: Investment Advice (SIC 6282)

Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.

Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)

Risk-free rate
4.3%
Equity risk premium
5.0%
Beta (default)
1.00
Cost of equity
9.3%
Terminal growth
2.5%

Factor scorecard

Neutral profile · Score 76/100

FactorValueScoreWeight used
ROIC · Quality45.3%92 (vs peers)11%
Net margin · Quality7.8%26 (vs peers)7%
FCF conversion · Quality418.7%100 (on a fixed band)7%
Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth7.7%64 (on a fixed band)9%
EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth14.5%96 (on a fixed band)9%
Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet1.4x43 (vs peers)11%
Interest coverage · Balance sheet6.8x81 (on a fixed band)7%
Current ratio · Balance sheetunavailableunavailable—
P/E (TTM) · Valuation30.0x28 (vs peers)11%
EV/EBITDA · Valuation4.9x100 (vs peers)11%
FCF yield · Valuation33.8%100 (on a fixed band)9%
Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns14.6%100 (on a fixed band)7%
Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns16.1%100 (on a fixed band)4%

Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.

Score groups

  • Balance sheet57/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
  • Growth80/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
  • Quality76/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
  • Returns100/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
  • Valuation74/100 · 3/3 factors with a value

Memo

GCM Grosvenor Inc. (GCMG). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2026-06-30.

Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 557.6 m USD in 2025; YoY growth 8.5%; net margin 7.8%; ROE 682.1%; net debt/EBITDA 1.4x.

The estimated value range is 17.81–29.54 USD per share (median of 4 methods, agreement: low); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 24.10 USD, the price of 13.03 USD leaves a potential of 85.0% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of 45.9% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.

olivLaw score 76/100, methodological classification: neutral profile (score, margin of safety and method agreement together; not a judgement of the right price). Not investment advice.

Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.

What supports the thesis

  • ROIC: 45.3%
  • FCF conversion: 418.7%
  • EPS CAGR 3Y: 14.5%
  • Interest coverage: 6.8x
  • EV/EBITDA: 4.9x
  • FCF yield: 33.8%
  • Shareholder yield (distributions): 14.6%
  • Payout ratio (FCF): 16.1%
  • The price is below the estimated value range

What contradicts it

  • Net margin: 7.8%
  • P/E (TTM): 30.0x
  • The valuation methods diverge

Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): Current ratio.

Versus the vertical median

Investment Advice (SIC 6282) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 39 companies

Multiples and returns vs the median

P/E
30.0x
vertical median 21.6x
above median (+38.5%)
EV/EBITDA
4.9x
vertical median 11.7x
below median (−58.6%)
P/S
1.0x
vertical median 2.5x
below median (−61.4%)
P/B
21.7x
vertical median 2.1x
above median (+929.0%)
ROE
682.1%
vertical median 14.8%
above median (+4,509.4%)
Net margin
7.8%
vertical median 15.8%
below median (−50.6%)
EBIT margin
27.1%
vertical median 21.9%
above median (+23.5%)
Revenue YoY
8.5%
vertical median 7.5%
above median (+12.6%)
Net debt/EBITDA
1.4x
vertical median 1.2x
above median (+13.5%)
Dividend yield
3.5%
vertical median 2.8%
above median (+21.3%)

Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)

Companies in the vertical

Market capP/EROENet marginRevenue YoY1A / 3A
BXBlackstone Inc.94.3 bn28.140.5%21.8%+9.2%−14% / +12%
KKRKkr & Co. Inc.91.0 bn28.910.6%14.8%−11.0%−17% / +34%
APOApollo Global Management, Inc.72.5 bn43.89.3%5.2%+22.7%−7% / +33%
AMPAmeriprise Financial, Inc.45.8 bn11.972.0%20.7%+5.5%+16% / +49%
TROWPrice T Rowe Group Inc24.0 bn11.319.7%28.4%+3.1%+10% / +12%
BENFranklin Resources Inc17.2 bn22.86.8%8.7%+3.5%+50% / +37%
CGCarlyle Group Inc.15.2 bn44.65.2%10.1%−11.9%−22% / +25%
IVZInvesco Ltd.12.9 bn—-0.6%-1.2%+5.1%+20% / +106%
AMGAffiliated Managers Group, Inc.9.4 bn17.818.9%26.9%+1.6%+36% / +169%
MORNMorningstar, Inc.9.1 bn21.435.1%17.0%+7.5%+14% / −14%
VCTRVictory Capital Holdings, Inc.7.4 bn20.619.0%29.6%+46.2%+91% / +274%
MAASMAASE Inc.4.9 bn—-7.2%-102.1%−75.2%+182% / −95%
LAZLazard, Inc.4.5 bn24.420.6%5.5%+1.5%−19% / +36%
PJTPJT Partners Inc.3.9 bn19.783.2%10.6%+14.8%−6% / +76%
CNSCohen & Steers, Inc.3.9 bn23.329.2%28.2%+7.5%+20% / +29%
APAMArtisan Partners Asset Management Inc.3.3 bn9.373.1%24.5%+7.6%−2% / +7%
AAMIAcadian Asset Management Inc.3.3 bn32.4—15.2%+11.5%+104% / +425%
NOAHNoah Holdings Ltd2.4 bn30.75.8%21.4%+4.8%−31% / −45%
ABXAbacus Global Management, Inc.885.0 m32.56.6%10.5%+110.2%+37% / +31%
VRTSVirtus Investment Partners, Inc.853.6 m7.412.6%14.0%−6.0%−19% / −34%
GCMGGCM Grosvenor Inc.550.6 m30.0682.1%7.8%+8.5%+13% / +54%
VALUValue Line, Inc.416.6 m21.018.7%60.3%−4.7%+20% / +6%
WHGWestwood Holdings Group, Inc.182.5 m21.96.4%7.8%+3.2%+14% / +75%
RILYBRC Group Holdings, Inc.154.0 m0.3—35.9%+29.6%−12% / −79%
BVCBitVentures Limited138.6 m39.828.9%687.6%unavailable+1,203% / −76%

1- and 3-year price returns: for GCMG from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.

olivLaw engine forecast

The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.

The engine has no published run for this company yet.

Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)

Illustrative scenarios

Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.

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Bull
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Nothing is saved.

Estimated price (USD)

Estimated priceBearBaseBull
1 years
19.25
Total return 54% · Per year 54%
33.99
Total return 170% · Per year 170%
51.13
Total return 303% · Per year 303%
3 years
19.90
Total return 73% · Per year 20%
39.41
Total return 231% · Per year 49%
64.92
Total return 434% · Per year 75%
5 years
20.57
Total return 92% · Per year 14%
45.70
Total return 301% · Per year 32%
82.43
Total return 600% · Per year 48%
What moves the 3-year price the most
  • Exit P/E± 9.85
  • Net margin± 6.90
  • Annual revenue growth± 5.49
  • Annual dilution± 0.58

AI analysis

AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

In brief

GCM Grosvenor is a global alternative asset management solutions provider investing across private equity, infrastructure, real estate, credit and absolute return strategies. It managed about 90.9 billion USD of assets at the end of 2025 1, and its second quarter 2026 results showed higher fee-related earnings, which makes it relevant as institutional investors keep allocating to alternatives 3.

SWOT

Strengths

  • A long history in alternatives management and a multi-strategy platform with long-standing client relationships 1.
  • High fee-related earnings margin that shows the scalability of the business model 1.

Weaknesses

  • Performance-based revenue is volatile and can be hard to predict from one quarter to the next 1.
  • Dependence on fund performance can affect redemptions and the ability to raise capital 1.
  • Activity relies on a comparatively small investment team, which makes resources sensitive to departures 1.

Opportunities

  • Rising institutional allocations to alternatives and growing interest from individual investors could widen the client base 1.
  • Products for individual investors could open new capital sources if access expands 1.
  • The trend toward consolidating investor relationships favors providers with flexible, customized partnerships 1.

Threats

  • Intense competition could pressure fees and margins if clients demand lower prices 1.
  • Market volatility and geopolitical tensions could delay investments and realizations 12.
  • Redemptions from open-ended funds could accelerate in a falling market and reduce managed assets 1.

Risks

  • Fund performancehigh

    Weak fund performance could reduce management and incentive fees, with consequences for financial results 1.

  • Client redemptionshigh

    Investors in open-ended funds can redeem, and separate account clients can terminate on short notice 1.

  • Variability of incentive revenuemedium

    Incentive revenue depends on realizations and can be uneven from one quarter to the next 1.

  • Fee pressuremedium

    Competition and investor pressure could force fee reductions, with no assurance the company can keep its current margins 1.

  • Regulatory requirementslow

    An evolving regulatory and tax environment could add costs or operating restrictions 12.

Investment thesis

What would need to be true (bull case)

  • If institutional allocations to alternatives keep rising, the asset base and management fees could keep expanding 1.
  • Existing clients renewing programs and adding new capital could support growth without relying only on new clients 1.
  • If the fee-related earnings margin holds, the scalability of the model could support higher profitability 13.

What would break the thesis

  • Market volatility and high inflation could delay new commitments and realizations, slowing revenue growth 2.
  • Competition from larger or better-funded rivals could force fee cuts or client losses 1.
  • Performance-based revenue is hard to forecast, and a weak quarter could affect investor perception of the company 1.

What to watch

  • Trend in fee-related earnings and management feesQ3 2026
  • New capital raised and redemption levels in open-ended fundsnext 10-K
  • Remaining capacity of the share repurchase programQ3 2026
  • Development of incentive fees and unrealized carried interest2027

Products, market & competition

AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

The business

The company describes its model as client-centric, with customized separate accounts and specialized funds, and a meaningful share of revenue comes from management fees 1. In fiscal 2025 total operating revenues were 558 million USD 1, of which management fees were 426 million USD 1. Existing clients contributed more than 82% of capital raised in 2025 1, pointing to a stable client base.

Revenue combines management fees, which are relatively predictable, with performance-based incentive fees and carried interest, which are more volatile and tied to realizations 1. The company reports a single operating and reportable segment, with performance assessed across the whole business 1. For the quarter ended June 30, 2026 it reported GAAP net income of about 9.6 million USD, and fee-related earnings rose 3.

The company had about 550 professionals and offices in Chicago, New York, Toronto, London, Frankfurt, Tokyo, Hong Kong, Seoul and Sydney 3. Its Class A shares trade on Nasdaq under the symbol GCMG 3.

Segments

Private Markets

Private Markets is the largest part of the business, with 64.1 billion USD of AUM, or 71% of the total, at December 31, 2025 1. It includes private equity, infrastructure and real estate, and some of these strategies are implemented through direct-oriented investments such as co-investments and secondaries 1.

Absolute Return Strategies

Absolute return strategies held 26.8 billion USD of AUM at December 31, 2025, or 29% of the total, with more liquid securities and clients able to redeem more regularly 1. The company says it has invested in hedge fund strategies for over 54 years 1.

Market context

The alternatives industry is growing, and Preqin projects total alternative AUM could reach 29.2 trillion USD by 2029 1. A PwC projection puts global asset and wealth management AUM at about 200 trillion USD by 2030 1. Institutional investors say they plan to maintain or increase allocations, particularly to infrastructure and private credit 1.

Individual investors remain under-allocated, putting less than 5% of their portfolios into alternatives versus 20-25% for institutions 1. If education and accessible products expand, this could become an important growth source for the company 1.

Trends

  • Market volatility and inflationmixed

    Volatility in 2025 and the first half of 2026, linked to inflation, tariffs and geopolitical tensions, can delay client commitments and realizations, but it can also raise demand for alternative strategies 2.

  • Consolidation of institutional relationshipstailwind

    Institutional investors increasingly favor fewer, deeper partnerships, which could favor providers with broad, flexible platforms such as GCM Grosvenor 1.

  • Individual investor access to alternativestailwind

    Registered products for individual investors, launched in 2024, could open a new market if demand grows, but they require investment in education and distribution 1.

  • Regulatory and tax costsheadwind

    The company does not expect the OBBBA tax changes to have a material impact on its financial statements, but evolving regulatory requirements can add costs 12.

Competitive position

The company competes with private equity funds, specialized funds, traditional asset managers, commercial and investment banks and sovereign wealth funds 1. It acknowledges that some competitors have greater resources and may use technology, including artificial intelligence, more effectively 1.

  • Private equity and specialized funds

    Funds competing for the same investment opportunities and clients, with varying capital and resources 1.

  • Traditional asset managers that built their own private equity platforms

    Managers offering alternatives alongside traditional strategies that can attract investor capital 1.

  • Commercial banks and investment banks

    Financial institutions with access to funding and distribution, cited in the filing as rivals for capital 1.

  • Sovereign wealth funds

    Investors that can also compete for the same investment opportunities, as cited in the official filing 1.

News & filings

In the press

The latest news item in our archive is from 23 Jul 2026; the newest SEC filing is from 10 Aug 2026. The press archive comes from the RSS feeds we follow and does not necessarily cover the latest event — the filings alongside do.

SEC filings

Sources

  1. [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · SEC / GCM Grosvenor Inc. · 19 Feb 2026
  2. [2] Form 10-Q, quarter ended 2026-06-30 · SEC / GCM Grosvenor Inc. · 10 Aug 2026
  3. [3] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / GCM Grosvenor Inc. · 10 Aug 2026

Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.