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olivLaw · US equity research

Noah Holdings Limited NOAH

Investment Advice · SIC 6282 · Vertical: Investment Advice (SIC 6282)

7.05USD+4.14% · 1 dayClose 04 Nov 2026

Noah Holdings is a wealth management provider for high-net-worth clients, mainly Mandarin speakers, combining investment product distribution with asset management through Gopher and Olive. The company has expanded beyond mainland China, which makes it relevant for investors tracking Asian private wealth. Its 2025 revenue split shows wealth management at 65.5% and asset management at 32.9%.

The AI analysis may be outdated: new filings came after its sources (see the «AI analysis» section).

At the close of 04 Nov 2026, Noah Holdings Limited (NOAH) stock was 7.05 USD (+4.14% on the day), with market capitalisation 2.4 bn USD, P/E 30.7 on diluted EPS of 0.23 USD over the last 12 months, dividend yield 3.31%, beta 0.80, 52-week range 6.73–12.32 USD.

Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.

Market cap
2.4 bn USD
shares as of 31 Dec 2025
P/E (TTM)
30.7
Diluted EPS TTM 0.23 · TTM to 31 Dec 2025
E/P (TTM)
3.26%
TTM to 31 Dec 2025
Dividend yield
3.31%
DPS 12m 0.23
Beta (2y)
0.80
Volatility (1y) 32%
52-week range
6.7312.32

Price history

Loading chart…

Technical reading

RSI (14)
42.8
weak (30–45)
Bollinger (20, 2)
6.55 – 7.66
in the lower half of the band · %B 0.45 · band width 15.7%
SMA 50 / 200
7.72 / 9.69
downtrend (price < SMA50 < SMA200)
MACD (12, 26, 9)
-0.26 / -0.29
MACD above signal

Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).

Performance

CompanyS&P 500vs S&P 500Vertical median
1 month−8.4%−1.1%−7.3 pp—
3 months−14.8%−0.5%−14.3 pp—
6 months−35.6%+4.4%−39.9 pp—
Year to date−29.8%+12.3%−42.1 pp—
1 year−36.1%+13.5%−49.7 pp−2.5%
3 years−41.2%+76.4%−117.6 pp+24.7%
5 years−83.6%+63.7%−147.3 pp—
Max drawdown (1y)
−45.4%
18 Feb 2026 → 30 Oct 2026
Max drawdown (5y)
−85.9%
16 Nov 2021 → 30 Oct 2026
Compound annual growth (5y)
−30.3%
S&P 500 +10.4%

Price returns, dividends excluded.

Quarterly results

ESEF annual reports carry no quarters: the results are annual (below).

E/P over time

E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.

Today's P/E sits at the 67 percentile of its own 9-quarter history (min 3.7, median 11.2, max 65.1; quarters with earnings only).

Fiscal years

Fiscal year20182019202020212022202320242025
Revenue478.5 m487.2 m506.6 m673.7 m449.5 m464.0 m356.3 m373.3 m
Revenue YoY+131.2%+1.8%+4.0%+33.0%−33.3%+3.2%−23.2%+4.8%
Net income118.0 m119.1 m-114.2 m206.2 m141.6 m142.2 m65.1 m79.9 m
Net income YoY+0.6%+0.9%−195.9%unavailable−31.3%+0.4%−54.2%+22.7%
Diluted EPS3.883.86-3.686.104.140.410.180.23
Diluted EPS YoY−2.5%−0.5%−195.3%unavailable−32.1%−90.1%−56.1%+27.8%
net %24.7%24.4%-22.5%30.6%31.5%30.6%18.3%21.4%
Free cash flow131.1 m175.7 m114.1 m-117.6 m82.7 m163.4 m41.8 m120.5 m

Reported results vs expectations

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Balance sheet & financial health

Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025

Cash
623.6 m USD
Financial debt
unavailable USD
Net debt
unavailable USD
Equity
1.4 bn USD
Total assets
1.7 bn USD
Debt / equity
unavailable
Current ratio
4.46x
ROE
5.7%
ROA
4.9%
FCF margin
32.3%

Financial statements (source on every figure)

Revenue and net income (USD)

Margins

Income statement · USD

Revenue
2023
464.0 m
2024
356.3 m
2025
373.3 m

SEC (XBRL)· 29 Apr 2026verified

Operating income
2023
154.6 m
2024
86.8 m
2025
111.1 m

SEC (XBRL)· 29 Apr 2026verified

Depreciation & amortisation
2023
22.3 m
2024
21.5 m
2025
22.4 m

SEC (XBRL)· 29 Apr 2026verified

EBITDA
2023
176.9 m ≈
2024
108.3 m ≈
2025
133.5 m ≈

SEC (XBRL)· 29 Apr 2026derived

Pre-tax income
2023
170.3 m
2024
118.9 m
2025
122.5 m

SEC (XBRL)· 29 Apr 2026verified

Income tax
2023
37.0 m
2024
36.8 m
2025
42.6 m

SEC (XBRL)· 29 Apr 2026verified

Net income
2023
142.2 m
2024
65.1 m
2025
79.9 m

SEC (XBRL)· 29 Apr 2026verified

Diluted EPS
2023
0.41
2024
0.18
2025
0.23

SEC (XBRL)· 29 Apr 2026verified

Weighted average diluted shares
2023
347.4 m
2024
352.4 m
2025
352.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 29 Apr 2026verified

Dividend per share
2023
0.08
2024
0.41
2025
0.23

SEC (XBRL)· 29 Apr 2026derived

Balance sheet · USD

Cash
2023
731.3 m
2024
523.7 m
2025
623.6 m

SEC (XBRL)· 29 Apr 2026verified

Receivables
2023
71.0 m
2024
64.9 m
2025
60.1 m

SEC (XBRL)· 29 Apr 2026verified

Current assets
2023
1.0 bn
2024
887.0 m
2025
909.5 m

SEC (XBRL)· 29 Apr 2026verified

Property, plant & equipment, net
2023
349.6 m
2024
326.4 m
2025
337.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 29 Apr 2026verified

Total assets
2023
1.8 bn
2024
1.6 bn
2025
1.7 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 29 Apr 2026verified

Current liabilities
2023
266.4 m
2024
195.8 m
2025
204.1 m

SEC (XBRL)· 29 Apr 2026verified

Total liabilities
2023
318.0 m
2024
242.0 m
2025
251.4 m

SEC (XBRL)· 29 Apr 2026verified

Equity
2023
1.5 bn
2024
1.4 bn
2025
1.4 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 29 Apr 2026verified

Shares outstanding at year end
2023
328.0 m
2024
335.2 m
2025
335.3 m

SEC (XBRL)· 29 Apr 2026verified

Cash flow · USD

Operating cash flow
2023
185.7 m
2024
53.1 m
2025
139.7 m

SEC (XBRL)· 29 Apr 2026verified

Capex
2023
22.2 m
2024
11.3 m
2025
19.2 m

SEC (XBRL)· 29 Apr 2026verified

Free cash flow
2023
163.4 m ≈
2024
41.8 m ≈
2025
120.5 m ≈

SEC (XBRL)· 29 Apr 2026derived

Investing cash flow
2023
-34.8 m
2024
-115.2 m
2025
42.8 m

SEC (XBRL)· 29 Apr 2026verified

Financing cash flow
2023
-28.1 m
2024
-155.4 m
2025
-90.9 m

SEC (XBRL)· 29 Apr 2026verified

Dividends paid
2023
25.0 m
2024
138.1 m
2025
78.2 m

SEC (XBRL)· 29 Apr 2026verified

Share repurchases
2023
—
2024
7.3 m
2025
7.5 m

SEC (XBRL)· 29 Apr 2026verified

Computed indicators

Growth

Revenue growth (YoY)
4.8%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Revenue CAGR 3Y
-6.0%
computed by olivLawFY 2022 → FY 2025
Revenue CAGR 5Y
-5.9%
computed by olivLawFY 2020 → FY 2025
EBIT growth (YoY)
27.9%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Net income growth (YoY)
22.7%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Net income CAGR 3Y
-17.4%
computed by olivLawFY 2022 → FY 2025
Net income CAGR 5Y
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
EPS growth (YoY)
27.8%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
EPS CAGR 3Y
-61.8%
computed by olivLawFY 2022 → FY 2025
EPS CAGR 5Y
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
FCF growth (YoY)
188.2%
computed by olivLawFY 2025

Profitability

Gross margin
unavailable
input data missing
EBITDA margin
35.8%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
EBIT margin
29.8%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Net margin
21.4%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
FCF margin
32.3%
computed by olivLawFY 2025

Returns

ROE
5.8%
computed by olivLawFY 2025 · balance sheet at 31 Dec 2025
ROA
4.9%
computed by olivLawFY 2025 · balance sheet at 31 Dec 2025
ROIC
unavailable
input data missing
ROCE
7.5%
computed by olivLawFY 2025 · balance sheet at 31 Dec 2025
Payout ratio (EPS)
101.4%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Payout ratio (FCF)
64.9%
computed by olivLawFY 2025

Balance sheet

Net debt
unavailable
input data missing
Net debt / EBITDA
unavailable
input data missing
Debt / equity
unavailable
input data missing
Interest coverage
unavailable
input data missing

Liquidity

Current ratio
4.5x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 31 Dec 2025
Quick ratio
unavailable
input data missing
Cash ratio
3.1x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 31 Dec 2025

Cash

Operating cash flow
139.7 m USD
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Capital expenditure
19.2 m USD
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Free cash flow
120.5 m USD
computed by olivLawFY 2025
FCF conversion
150.7%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Cash conversion
104.6%
computed by olivLawFY 2025

Efficiency

Days sales outstanding
61 days
computed by olivLawFY 2025 · balance sheet at 31 Dec 2025
Days inventory outstanding
unavailable
input data missing
Days payables outstanding
unavailable
input data missing
Cash conversion cycle
unavailable
input data missing

Market and valuation

Market capitalisation
2.4 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 31 Dec 2025
Enterprise value
unavailable
input data missing
Market cap / net income TTM
29.6x
computed by olivLawFY 2025
P/E (TTM)
30.7x
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Earnings yield
3.3%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
P/B
1.7x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 31 Dec 2025
P/S
6.3x
computed by olivLawFY 2025 · balance sheet at 31 Dec 2025
EV/EBITDA
unavailable
input data missing
EV/EBIT
unavailable
input data missing
EV/Sales
unavailable
input data missing
P/FCF
19.6x
computed by olivLawFY 2025 · balance sheet at 31 Dec 2025
FCF yield
5.1%
computed by olivLawFY 2025 · balance sheet at 31 Dec 2025
Dividend yield
3.3%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Shareholder yield (distributions)
3.6%
computed by olivLawFY 2025 · balance sheet at 31 Dec 2025

1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.

Valuation

olivLaw classification

Unattractive profile

Score: 46 / 100

A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.

(margin_of_safety <= -0.25 & agreement in ['high', 'medium'])

Closing price

7.05 USD

04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series

Market cap: 2.4 bn USD

Key indicators

Market capitalisation
2.4 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 31 Dec 2025
P/E (TTM)
30.7x
computed by olivLawFY 2025
P/B
1.7x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 31 Dec 2025
EV/EBITDA
unavailable
input data missing
ROE
5.8%
computed by olivLawFY 2025 · balance sheet at 31 Dec 2025
Net margin
21.4%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Revenue growth (YoY)
4.8%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Dividend yield
3.3%
computed by olivLawFY 2025

Coverage and freshness

26/37 reporting lines present
Latest full fiscal year: 2025
Latest reported period: 31 Dec 2025
Latest balance sheet date: 31 Dec 2025
Share count (cover of the latest filing), as of: 31 Dec 2025
Source: SEC (XBRL)published 29 Apr 2026
verified 431derived 6

Score by group

  • Balance sheet100
  • Growth0
  • Quality83
  • Returns63
  • Valuation42

Estimated value range

Low
2.90
USD per share
Mid
4.22
USD per share
High
5.29
USD per share
Price: 7.05 USD
The price is above the range
Potential to the central value: -40.2% (value / price − 1)
Margin of safety: -67.2% (1 − price / value)
Agreement between methods: high · 2 methods used · 2 independent bases

The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 2.73 – 6.47 USD.

Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.

Method ranges (USD per share)

— — Mid · ▏ Price

Valuation methods

  • DCF (discounted cash flow)unavailable · input data missing
  • Peers: EV/EBITDAunavailable · net debt missing: EV cannot be bridged to equity (missing debt is not zero)
  • Peers: P/E2.73 – 6.47 (Mid 4.92)
    29 companies used · median multiple 21.4x · quartiles 11.9x – 28.1x
    AAMI, ABX, AMG, AMP, APAM, APO, ARES, BEN, BVC, BX, CG, CNS, EVR, FHI, GROW, HLI, HNNA, KKR, LAZ, MORN, PAX, PJT, RILY, RPC, TROW, VALU, VCTR, VRTS, WHG
  • Dividend discount (DDM)3.06 – 4.12 (Mid 3.52)
Multiple comparisons use the SIC vertical: Investment Advice (SIC 6282)

Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.

Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)

Risk-free rate
4.3%
Equity risk premium
5.0%
Beta (default)
1.00
Cost of equity
9.3%
Terminal growth
2.5%

Factor scorecard

Unattractive profile · Score 46/100

FactorValueScoreWeight used
ROIC · Qualityunavailableunavailable—
Net margin · Quality21.4%67 (vs peers)10%
FCF conversion · Quality150.7%100 (on a fixed band)10%
Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth-6.0%0 (on a fixed band)13%
EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth-61.8%0 (on a fixed band)13%
Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheetunavailableunavailable—
Interest coverage · Balance sheetunavailableunavailable—
Current ratio · Balance sheet4.5x100 (on a fixed band)7%
P/E (TTM) · Valuation30.7x25 (vs peers)17%
EV/EBITDA · Valuationunavailableunavailable—
FCF yield · Valuation5.1%64 (on a fixed band)13%
Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns3.6%52 (on a fixed band)10%
Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns64.9%79 (on a fixed band)7%

Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.

Score groups

  • Balance sheet· partial100/100 · 1/3 factors with a value
  • Growth0/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
  • Quality83/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
  • Returns63/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
  • Valuation42/100 · 2/3 factors with a value

A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.

Memo

Noah Holdings Ltd (NOAH). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2025-12-31.

Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 373.3 m USD in 2025; YoY growth 4.8%; net margin 21.4%; ROE 5.8%.

The estimated value range is 2.90–5.29 USD per share (median of 2 methods, agreement: high); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 4.22 USD, the price of 7.05 USD leaves a potential of -40.2% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of -67.2% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.

olivLaw score 46/100, methodological classification: unattractive profile (score, margin of safety and method agreement together; not a judgement of the right price). Groups assessed only in part: balance. Not investment advice.

Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.

What supports the thesis

  • FCF conversion: 150.7%
  • Current ratio: 4.5x
  • Payout ratio (FCF): 64.9%

What contradicts it

  • Revenue CAGR 3Y: -6.0%
  • EPS CAGR 3Y: -61.8%
  • P/E (TTM): 30.7x
  • The price is above the estimated value range

Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): ROIC, Net debt / EBITDA, Interest coverage, EV/EBITDA.

Versus the vertical median

Investment Advice (SIC 6282) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 39 companies

Multiples and returns vs the median

P/E
30.7x
vertical median 21.6x
above median (+41.7%)
EV/EBITDA
—
vertical median 11.7x
P/S
6.3x
vertical median 2.5x
above median (+153.7%)
P/B
1.7x
vertical median 2.5x
below median (−33.3%)
ROE
5.8%
vertical median 15.4%
below median (−62.5%)
Net margin
21.4%
vertical median 15.6%
above median (+37.0%)
EBIT margin
29.8%
vertical median 20.3%
above median (+46.8%)
Revenue YoY
4.8%
vertical median 7.6%
below median (−37.3%)
Net debt/EBITDA
—
vertical median 1.2x
Dividend yield
3.3%
vertical median 2.8%
above median (+16.1%)

Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)

Companies in the vertical

Market capP/EROENet marginRevenue YoY1A / 3A
BXBlackstone Inc.94.3 bn28.140.5%21.8%+9.2%−14% / +12%
KKRKkr & Co. Inc.91.0 bn28.910.6%14.8%−11.0%−17% / +34%
APOApollo Global Management, Inc.72.5 bn43.89.3%5.2%+22.7%−7% / +33%
AMPAmeriprise Financial, Inc.45.8 bn11.972.0%20.7%+5.5%+16% / +49%
TROWPrice T Rowe Group Inc24.0 bn11.319.7%28.4%+3.1%+10% / +12%
BENFranklin Resources Inc17.2 bn22.86.8%8.7%+3.5%+50% / +37%
CGCarlyle Group Inc.15.2 bn44.65.2%10.1%−11.9%−22% / +25%
ARESAres Management Corporation14.1 bn22.215.3%12.0%+28.9%−13% / +22%
IVZInvesco Ltd.12.9 bn—-0.6%-1.2%+5.1%+20% / +106%
AMGAffiliated Managers Group, Inc.9.4 bn17.818.9%26.9%+1.6%+36% / +169%
MORNMorningstar, Inc.9.1 bn21.435.1%17.0%+7.5%+14% / −14%
VCTRVictory Capital Holdings, Inc.7.4 bn20.619.0%29.6%+46.2%+91% / +274%
MAASMAASE Inc.4.9 bn—-7.2%-102.1%−75.2%+182% / −95%
LAZLazard, Inc.4.5 bn24.420.6%5.5%+1.5%−19% / +36%
PJTPJT Partners Inc.3.9 bn19.783.2%10.6%+14.8%−6% / +76%
CNSCohen & Steers, Inc.3.9 bn23.329.2%28.2%+7.5%+20% / +29%
APAMArtisan Partners Asset Management Inc.3.3 bn9.373.1%24.5%+7.6%−2% / +7%
AAMIAcadian Asset Management Inc.3.3 bn32.4—15.2%+11.5%+104% / +425%
NOAHNoah Holdings Ltd2.4 bn30.75.8%21.4%+4.8%−36% / −41%
ABXAbacus Global Management, Inc.885.0 m32.56.6%10.5%+110.2%+37% / +31%
VRTSVirtus Investment Partners, Inc.853.6 m7.412.6%14.0%−6.0%−19% / −34%
VALUValue Line, Inc.416.6 m21.018.7%60.3%−4.7%+20% / +6%
WHGWestwood Holdings Group, Inc.182.5 m21.96.4%7.8%+3.2%+14% / +75%
RILYBRC Group Holdings, Inc.154.0 m0.3—35.9%+29.6%−12% / −79%
BVCBitVentures Limited138.6 m39.828.9%687.6%unavailable+1,203% / −76%

1- and 3-year price returns: for NOAH from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.

olivLaw engine forecast

The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.

The engine has no published run for this company yet.

Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)

Illustrative scenarios

Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.

Bear
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Base
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Bull
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Nothing is saved.

Estimated price (USD)

Estimated priceBearBaseBull
1 years
3.91
Total return -42% · Per year -42%
6.94
Total return 2% · Per year 2%
10.50
Total return 53% · Per year 53%
3 years
3.10
Total return -50% · Per year -20%
6.26
Total return -2% · Per year -1%
10.50
Total return 61% · Per year 17%
5 years
2.46
Total return -55% · Per year -15%
5.65
Total return -5% · Per year -1%
10.50
Total return 68% · Per year 11%
What moves the 3-year price the most
  • Exit P/E± 1.57
  • Net margin± 1.10
  • Annual revenue growth± 0.99
  • Annual dilution± 0.09

AI analysis

AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 29 Apr 2026; since then the company filed 6-K (08 Oct 2026), 6-K (15 Sept 2026), 6-K (04 Sept 2026), 6-K (28 Aug 2026), 6-K (26 Aug 2026), 6-K (25 Aug 2026).

In brief

Noah Holdings is a wealth management provider for high-net-worth clients, mainly Mandarin speakers, combining investment product distribution with asset management through Gopher and Olive. The company has expanded beyond mainland China, which makes it relevant for investors tracking Asian private wealth. Its 2025 revenue split shows wealth management at 65.5% and asset management at 32.9% 1.

SWOT

Strengths

  • The company has over two decades of operating experience and an ecosystem of top product partners, giving it access to a broad product range 1.
  • Geographic diversification across Hong Kong, Singapore and the United States reduces dependence on the Chinese market 1.
  • Its revenue structure combines wealth management and asset management, giving more than one source of income 1.

Weaknesses

  • The company depends heavily on the volume of products distributed and on fees from product partners, which can fluctuate with markets 1.
  • Control over part of the mainland China operations rests on contracts rather than direct ownership, which limits operational control 1.
  • Asset management revenue depends on investment performance, and weak performance could reduce revenue and the ability to raise new funds 1.

Opportunities

  • Overseas expansion through Olive and USD-denominated products could open international investment access for its clients 1.
  • Growing investor education could deepen client relationships and encourage long-duration investment 1.
  • A recovery in secondary markets could raise performance-based fees and private secondary product volume 1.

Threats

  • Regulatory changes in mainland China could affect product mix and restrict operations 1.
  • Uncertainty over how authorities interpret the legal framework for contracts with affiliated entities could lead to penalties or restructuring 1.
  • Competition for high-net-worth clients and product partners could compress fees and margins 1.

Risks

  • Contractual structure in Chinahigh

    Asset management operations in mainland China are run through contracts with affiliated entities, and authorities could find these contracts invalid, which could mean losing control 1.

  • Regulation and licenceshigh

    Rules in wealth and asset management are developing, and failing to hold the required approvals or licences could affect operations 1.

  • Secondary market cyclemedium

    Part of revenue depends on performance-based fees, which are sensitive to secondary market cycles and could fall if markets weaken 1.

  • Counterparty exposuremedium

    The company does not guarantee returns on distributed products, but a problem with a product or partner could still affect reputation and revenue 1.

  • Tax and transfer pricingmedium

    Chinese tax authorities could adjust arrangements between related entities, which could reduce consolidated net income 1.

Investment thesis

What would need to be true (bull case)

  • If wealth among Chinese and overseas Mandarin-speaking individuals keeps growing, demand for wealth management services could support volumes and revenue 1.
  • International expansion and USD products could reduce dependence on the Chinese market and attract new clients 1.
  • Its partner ecosystem and diversified revenue could provide stability during periods of market volatility 1.

What would break the thesis

  • If regulation in mainland China changes further, product mix and operating structure could be significantly affected 1.
  • If secondary markets weaken, performance-based fees could decline and private product volume could fall back 1.
  • Contractual control over part of the operations could be challenged, with serious consequences for consolidated results 1.

What to watch

  • Revenue trends in wealth management and asset management by segment2026
  • Transaction value of investment products and the share of private secondary products2026
  • Changes to the contractual structure and regulatory framework in Chinanext annual report
  • Olive performance and growth of assets under management outside China2026

Products, market & competition

AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 29 Apr 2026; since then the company filed 6-K (08 Oct 2026), 6-K (15 Sept 2026), 6-K (04 Sept 2026), 6-K (28 Aug 2026), 6-K (26 Aug 2026), 6-K (25 Aug 2026).

The business

Noah Holdings, founded in August 2005 with its principal executive office in Singapore, offers one-stop wealth management and asset allocation services mainly to Mandarin-speaking high-net-worth clients 1. Its business runs along two main lines: wealth management, which distributes mutual funds, private secondary products and other products, and asset management, conducted through Gopher and Olive 1. From the fourth quarter of 2024 the company reports six business segments plus headquarters, reflecting its restructuring 1.

Wealth management revenue comes from one-time commissions, recurring service fees, shares of performance-based income and comprehensive services, and the company states it does not bear client investment losses or guarantee returns 1. Value-added services include investor education under the Enoch Education brand and international trust services through Ark Trust in Hong Kong, Jersey and Singapore 1. It also earns commissions by referring clients to insurance companies 1.

Clients are classified by assets under advisory into tiers from ivory to black card, and the number of black card clients was 2,299 as of December 31, 2025 1. Transaction value of investment products is a key operating metric, reaching RMB 67.0 billion in 2025 1.

Segments

Wealth management

The wealth management business contributed 65.5% of total net revenues in 2025, spread across domestic public securities, domestic insurance, overseas wealth management and overseas insurance and comprehensive services 1. Revenue from overseas products accounted for 48.7% of total revenues in 2025, showing diversification beyond the Chinese market 1.

Asset management

Asset management, conducted through Gopher domestically and Olive overseas, contributed 32.9% of net revenues in 2025, and its revenue depends directly on assets under management and investment performance 1. Olive was launched in 2024 to manage USD-denominated private equity funds 1.

Market context

The core market consists of individuals with investable assets above RMB 6.0 million and related institutional clients, mainly in mainland China with some overseas Mandarin-speaking clients 1. Industry growth depends on rising individual wealth, greater investor sophistication and the development of China's capital markets, including new exit routes for private investments 1.

Revenue is sensitive to secondary market cycles because part of it comes from performance-based fees, and rules restricting non-standardized credit products have already affected product mix 1. The contractual control structure over part of the Chinese operations adds regulatory complexity 1.

Trends

  • Rising wealth in Chinatailwind

    Economic growth and a growing number of individuals with investable assets support demand for wealth management services, if these trends continue 1.

  • More sophisticated clientstailwind

    Investors are becoming more sophisticated and using value-added services, which could support product innovation and client loyalty 1.

  • Capital market developmentmixed

    Reforms such as the registration-based IPO regime provide exit routes for private investments, but the pace of the secondary cycle remains uncertain 1.

  • Changing regulationheadwind

    New rules on credit products and the contractual structure with affiliated entities could limit product mix and affect operations if authorities interpret the framework differently 1.

Competitive position

The company differentiates itself from many competitors in mainland China through multi-currency product offerings and its presence in Hong Kong, Singapore and the United States 1. The source does not name specific competitors, so the comparison remains limited to what the annual report states 1.

Its stated advantage rests on an ecosystem of leading product partners, including fund managers and top PE/VC general partners, plus operating efficiency and risk management 1. Competitive pressure could show up in the service fee rates negotiated with partners 1.

  • Other wealth managers in mainland China

    Firms that mainly offer domestic and RMB-denominated products, which the source describes as a narrower offering than the company's.

  • Other mutual fund and structured product distributors

    Competition for distribution of mutual fund products, which form a large part of transaction volume.

  • Private equity and secondary asset managers

    Partners in products and possible competitors for high-net-worth client capital.

  • International trust and wealth planning providers

    Competition in international trust services and succession planning.

News & filings

In the press

Sources

  1. [1] Form 20-F, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · SEC / Noah Holdings Limited · 29 Apr 2026

Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.