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olivLaw · US equity research

Victory Capital Holdings, Inc. VCTR

Investment Advice · SIC 6282 · Vertical: Investment Advice (SIC 6282)

120.19USD+3.84% · 1 dayClose 04 Nov 2026

Victory Capital is a global asset manager with autonomous investment franchises and a centralized distribution platform. After the Amundi US acquisition, the company reported record second-quarter 2026 revenue and margins, and its assets rose to historic levels, with total client assets of 346.1 billion USD at June 30, 2026.

The AI analysis may be outdated: new filings came after its sources (see the «AI analysis» section).

At the close of 04 Nov 2026, Victory Capital Holdings, Inc. (VCTR) stock was 120.19 USD (+3.84% on the day), with market capitalisation 7.4 bn USD, P/E 20.6 on diluted EPS of 5.84 USD over the last 12 months, dividend yield 1.64%, beta 1.32, 52-week range 60.76–121.13 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q2 2026): revenue of 435.4 m USD (+24.0% YoY), net income of 139.4 m USD (+137.3% YoY), diluted EPS 1.68 USD.

Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.

Market cap
7.4 bn USD
shares as of 31 Jul 2026
P/E (TTM)
20.6
Diluted EPS TTM 5.84 · TTM to 30 Jun 2026
E/P (TTM)
4.86%
TTM to 30 Jun 2026
Dividend yield
1.64%
DPS 12m 1.97
Beta (2y)
1.32
Volatility (1y) 32%
52-week range
60.76121.13

Price history

Loading chart…

Technical reading

RSI (14)
68.7
strong (55–70)
Bollinger (20, 2)
104.05 – 117.31
above the upper band · %B 1.22 · band width 12.0%
SMA 50 / 200
110.99 / 89.91
uptrend (price > SMA50 > SMA200)
MACD (12, 26, 9)
1.52 / 0.46
MACD above signal

Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).

Performance

CompanyS&P 500vs S&P 500Vertical median
1 month+4.3%−1.1%+5.4 pp—
3 months+20.2%−0.5%+20.7 pp—
6 months+46.1%+4.4%+41.7 pp—
Year to date+90.5%+12.3%+78.2 pp—
1 year+95.4%+13.5%+81.8 pp−2.8%
3 years+266.4%+76.4%+190.0 pp+24.7%
5 years+183.7%+63.7%+120.0 pp—
Max drawdown (1y)
−18.7%
25 Feb 2026 → 06 Apr 2026
Max drawdown (5y)
−45.8%
09 Nov 2021 → 14 Jul 2022
Compound annual growth (5y)
+23.2%
S&P 500 +10.4%

Price returns, dividends excluded.

Quarterly results

Latest quarter: Q2 2026 · 30 Jun 2026

Revenue
435.4 m USD
+24.0% YoY
Net income
139.4 m USD
+137.3% YoY
Diluted EPS
1.68
+147.1% YoY
net / operating
32.0% / 44.5%

Quarterly margins

Quarterly statements · USD

Fiscal yearQ3 '24Q4 '24Q1 '25Q2 '25Q3 '25Q4 '25Q1 '26Q2 '26
Revenue225.6 m232.4 m219.6 m351.2 m361.2 m374.1 m388.0 m435.4 m
Operating income120.4 m111.7 m92.9 m94.2 m138.1 m153.2 m159.2 m193.7 m
Depreciation & amortisation7.5 m7.5 m7.4 m21.8 m22.0 m21.6 m20.6 m20.6 m
Interest expense16.4 m17.7 m13.2 m13.2 m16.5 m15.0 m13.9 m13.8 m
Pre-tax income107.5 m98.6 m80.4 m87.0 m129.3 m141.7 m147.9 m187.3 m
Income tax25.5 m21.7 m18.4 m28.3 m32.7 m28.8 m35.7 m47.8 m
Net income82.0 m76.9 m62.0 m58.7 m96.5 m112.8 m112.1 m139.4 m
Diluted EPS1.241.17 ≈0.960.681.111.72 ≈1.331.68
Operating cash flow99.8 m ≈91.8 m81.1 m-6.6 m ≈165.9 m ≈145.1 m121.0 m135.4 m ≈
Capex398.0 k ≈155.0 k1.6 m890.0 k ≈1.1 m ≈599.0 k849.0 k1.2 m ≈
Dividends paid26.6 m28.1 m29.9 m43.7 m ≈42.1 m41.3 m41.6 m41.1 m ≈
Share repurchases1.6 m ≈96.9 m451.0 k26.0 m ≈118.5 m ≈50.7 m127.2 m91.4 m ≈

≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)

E/P over time

E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.

Today's P/E sits at the 97 percentile of its own 34-quarter history (min 5.8, median 11.2, max 23.7; quarters with earnings only).

Fiscal years

Fiscal year20182019202020212022202320242025
Revenue413.4 m612.4 m775.4 m890.3 m854.8 m821.0 m893.5 m1.3 bn
Revenue YoY+0.9%+48.1%+26.6%+14.8%−4.0%−4.0%+8.8%+46.2%
Net income63.7 m92.5 m212.5 m278.4 m275.5 m213.2 m288.9 m330.1 m
Net income YoY+146.7%+45.2%+129.8%+31.0%−1.0%−22.6%+35.5%+14.3%
Diluted EPS0.901.262.883.753.813.124.384.08
Diluted EPS YoY+109.3%+40.0%+128.6%+30.2%+1.6%−18.1%+40.4%−6.8%
net %15.4%15.1%27.4%31.3%32.2%26.0%32.3%25.3%
Free cash flow131.8 m222.1 m242.6 m363.5 m330.0 m325.1 m338.7 m381.3 m

Reported results vs expectations

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Balance sheet & financial health

Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025

Cash
163.7 m USD
Financial debt
970.0 m USD
Net debt
806.3 m USD
Equity
2.4 bn USD
Total assets
4.2 bn USD
Debt / equity
0.40x
Current ratio
unavailable
ROE
18.6%
ROA
9.7%
FCF margin
29.2%

Financial statements (source on every figure)

Revenue and net income (USD)

Margins

Income statement · USD

Revenue
2023
821.0 m
2024
893.5 m
2025
1.3 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Operating income
2023
328.5 m
2024
427.5 m
2025
478.4 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Depreciation & amortisation
2023
41.6 m
2024
30.2 m
2025
72.9 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

EBITDA
2023
370.1 m ≈
2024
457.7 m ≈
2025
551.3 m ≈

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026derived

Interest expense
2023
61.3 m
2024
63.8 m
2025
63.9 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Pre-tax income
2023
275.9 m
2024
373.8 m
2025
438.3 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Income tax
2023
62.8 m
2024
84.9 m
2025
108.3 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Net income
2023
213.2 m
2024
288.9 m
2025
330.1 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Diluted EPS
2023
3.12
2024
4.38
2025
4.08

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Weighted average diluted shares
2023
68.2 m
2024
65.9 m
2025
66.4 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Dividend per share
2023
1.28
2024
1.56
2025
1.94

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Balance sheet · USD

Cash
2023
123.5 m
2024
126.7 m
2025
163.7 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Property, plant & equipment, net
2023
19.6 m
2024
11.9 m
2025
23.8 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Goodwill
2023
981.8 m
2024
981.8 m
2025
1.2 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Intangibles (excl. goodwill)
2023
1.3 bn
2024
1.3 bn
2025
2.5 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Total assets
2023
2.5 bn
2024
2.5 bn
2025
4.2 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Long-term debt
2023
989.3 m
2024
963.9 m
2025
970.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Total liabilities
2023
1.5 bn
2024
1.4 bn
2025
1.8 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Equity
2023
1.1 bn †
2024
1.1 bn †
2025
2.4 bn †

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Cash flow · USD

Operating cash flow
2023
330.3 m
2024
340.0 m
2025
385.5 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Capex
2023
5.2 m
2024
1.3 m
2025
4.2 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Free cash flow
2023
325.1 m ≈
2024
338.7 m ≈
2025
381.3 m ≈

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026derived

Investing cash flow
2023
-7.8 m
2024
-4.0 m
2025
76.6 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Financing cash flow
2023
-237.1 m
2024
-332.8 m
2025
-425.5 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Dividends paid
2023
85.4 m
2024
101.1 m
2025
157.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Share repurchases
2023
139.3 m
2024
103.6 m
2025
195.6 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Computed indicators

Growth

Revenue growth (YoY)
46.2%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Revenue CAGR 3Y
15.2%
computed by olivLawFY 2022 → FY 2025
Revenue CAGR 5Y
11.0%
computed by olivLawFY 2020 → FY 2025
EBIT growth (YoY)
11.9%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Net income growth (YoY)
14.3%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Net income CAGR 3Y
6.2%
computed by olivLawFY 2022 → FY 2025
Net income CAGR 5Y
9.2%
computed by olivLawFY 2020 → FY 2025
EPS growth (YoY)
-6.8%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
EPS CAGR 3Y
2.3%
computed by olivLawFY 2022 → FY 2025
EPS CAGR 5Y
7.2%
computed by olivLawFY 2020 → FY 2025
FCF growth (YoY)
12.6%
computed by olivLawFY 2025

Profitability

Gross margin
unavailable
input data missing
EBITDA margin
46.8%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
EBIT margin
41.3%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Net margin
29.6%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
FCF margin
36.2%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026

Returns

ROE
19.0%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
ROA
10.9%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
ROIC
14.9%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
ROCE
unavailable
input data missing
Payout ratio (EPS)
33.7%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Payout ratio (FCF)
29.5%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026

Balance sheet

Net debt
897.8 m USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Net debt / EBITDA
1.2x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Debt / equity
0.4x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Interest coverage
10.9x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026

Liquidity

Current ratio
unavailable
input data missing
Quick ratio
unavailable
input data missing
Cash ratio
unavailable
input data missing

Cash

Operating cash flow
567.4 m USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Capital expenditure
3.8 m USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Free cash flow
563.6 m USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
FCF conversion
122.3%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Cash conversion
77.8%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026

Efficiency

Days sales outstanding
unavailable
input data missing
Days inventory outstanding
unavailable
input data missing
Days payables outstanding
unavailable
input data missing
Cash conversion cycle
unavailable
input data missing

Market and valuation

Market capitalisation
7.4 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Enterprise value
8.3 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Market cap / net income TTM
16.0x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
P/E (TTM)
20.6x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Earnings yield
4.9%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
P/B
3.1x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
P/S
4.7x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
EV/EBITDA
11.4x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
EV/EBIT
12.9x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
EV/Sales
5.3x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
P/FCF
13.1x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
FCF yield
7.6%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Dividend yield
1.6%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Shareholder yield (distributions)
7.5%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026

1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.

Valuation

olivLaw classification

Neutral profile

Score: 74 / 100

A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.

Closing price

120.19 USD

04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series

Market cap: 7.4 bn USD

Key indicators

Market capitalisation
7.4 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
P/E (TTM)
20.6x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
P/B
3.1x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
EV/EBITDA
11.4x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
ROE
19.0%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Net margin
29.6%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Revenue growth (YoY)
46.2%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Dividend yield
1.6%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026

Coverage and freshness

26/37 reporting lines present
Latest full fiscal year: 2025
Latest reported period: 30 Jun 2026
Latest balance sheet date: 30 Jun 2026
Share count (cover of the latest filing), as of: 31 Jul 2026
Source: SEC (XBRL)published 06 Aug 2026
verified 1300derived 105

Score by group

  • Balance sheet73
  • Valuation70
  • Quality78
  • Growth58
  • Returns100

Estimated value range

Low
63.17
USD per share
Mid
126.17
USD per share
High
161.75
USD per share
Price: 120.19 USD
The price is within the range
Potential to the central value: 5.0% (value / price − 1)
Margin of safety: 4.7% (1 − price / value)
Agreement between methods: medium · 4 methods used · 3 independent bases

The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 25.49 – 262.85 USD.

Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.

Method ranges (USD per share)

— — Mid · ▏ Price

Valuation methods

  • DCF (discounted cash flow)160.16 – 262.85 (Mid 199.26)
    WACC 8.8% · starting FCFF 608.6 m USD · terminal value share of EV 76%
    The WACC × g sensitivity gives the method's bounds; these are not probabilities.
    Reverse DCF: starting growth implied by the price (fading linearly to terminal growth, everything else fixed): -5.3%
  • Peers: EV/EBITDA57.10 – 148.51 (Mid 124.52)
    7 companies used · median multiple 11.7x · quartiles 6.0x – 13.8x
    ABX, APAM, BEN, GCMG, LAZ, MORN, VRTS
  • Peers: P/E69.25 – 174.99 (Mid 127.82)
    29 companies used · median multiple 21.9x · quartiles 11.9x – 30.0x
    AAMI, ABX, AMG, AMP, APAM, APO, ARES, BEN, BVC, BX, CG, EVR, FHI, GCMG, GROW, HLI, HNNA, KKR, LAZ, MORN, NOAH, PAX, PJT, RILY, RPC, TROW, VALU, VRTS, WHG
  • Dividend discount (DDM)25.49 – 34.28 (Mid 29.24)
Multiple comparisons use the SIC vertical: Investment Advice (SIC 6282)

Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.

Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)

Risk-free rate
4.3%
Equity risk premium
5.0%
Beta (default)
1.00
Cost of equity
9.3%
Terminal growth
2.5%

Factor scorecard

Neutral profile · Score 74/100

FactorValueScoreWeight used
ROIC · Quality14.9%58 (vs peers)11%
Net margin · Quality29.6%87 (vs peers)7%
FCF conversion · Quality122.3%100 (on a fixed band)7%
Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth15.2%100 (on a fixed band)9%
EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth2.3%15 (on a fixed band)9%
Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet1.2x57 (vs peers)11%
Interest coverage · Balance sheet10.9x100 (on a fixed band)7%
Current ratio · Balance sheetunavailableunavailable—
P/E (TTM) · Valuation20.6x64 (vs peers)11%
EV/EBITDA · Valuation11.4x57 (vs peers)11%
FCF yield · Valuation7.6%95 (on a fixed band)9%
Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns7.5%100 (on a fixed band)7%
Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns29.5%100 (on a fixed band)4%

Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.

Score groups

  • Balance sheet73/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
  • Growth58/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
  • Quality78/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
  • Returns100/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
  • Valuation70/100 · 3/3 factors with a value

Memo

Victory Capital Holdings, Inc. (VCTR). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2026-06-30.

Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 1.3 bn USD in 2025; YoY growth 46.2%; net margin 29.6%; ROE 19.0%; net debt/EBITDA 1.2x.

The estimated value range is 63.17–161.75 USD per share (median of 4 methods, agreement: medium); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 126.17 USD, the price of 120.19 USD leaves a potential of 5.0% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of 4.7% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.

olivLaw score 74/100, methodological classification: neutral profile (score, margin of safety and method agreement together; not a judgement of the right price). Not investment advice.

Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.

What supports the thesis

  • Net margin: 29.6%
  • FCF conversion: 122.3%
  • Revenue CAGR 3Y: 15.2%
  • Interest coverage: 10.9x
  • FCF yield: 7.6%
  • Shareholder yield (distributions): 7.5%
  • Payout ratio (FCF): 29.5%

What contradicts it

  • EPS CAGR 3Y: 2.3%

Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): Current ratio.

Versus the vertical median

Investment Advice (SIC 6282) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 39 companies

Multiples and returns vs the median

P/E
20.6x
vertical median 22.2x
below median (−7.4%)
EV/EBITDA
11.4x
vertical median 11.7x
at median
P/S
4.7x
vertical median 2.3x
above median (+108.6%)
P/B
3.1x
vertical median 2.1x
above median (+47.4%)
ROE
19.0%
vertical median 13.3%
above median (+43.0%)
Net margin
29.6%
vertical median 14.8%
above median (+99.9%)
EBIT margin
41.3%
vertical median 20.3%
above median (+104.0%)
Revenue YoY
46.2%
vertical median 7.6%
above median (+506.9%)
Net debt/EBITDA
1.2x
vertical median 1.4x
below median (−11.9%)
Dividend yield
1.6%
vertical median 3.1%
below median (−47.0%)

Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)

Companies in the vertical

Market capP/EROENet marginRevenue YoY1A / 3A
BXBlackstone Inc.94.3 bn28.140.5%21.8%+9.2%−14% / +12%
KKRKkr & Co. Inc.91.0 bn28.910.6%14.8%−11.0%−17% / +34%
APOApollo Global Management, Inc.72.5 bn43.89.3%5.2%+22.7%−7% / +33%
AMPAmeriprise Financial, Inc.45.8 bn11.972.0%20.7%+5.5%+16% / +49%
TROWPrice T Rowe Group Inc24.0 bn11.319.7%28.4%+3.1%+10% / +12%
BENFranklin Resources Inc17.2 bn22.86.8%8.7%+3.5%+50% / +37%
CGCarlyle Group Inc.15.2 bn44.65.2%10.1%−11.9%−22% / +25%
ARESAres Management Corporation14.1 bn22.215.3%12.0%+28.9%−13% / +22%
IVZInvesco Ltd.12.9 bn—-0.6%-1.2%+5.1%+20% / +106%
AMGAffiliated Managers Group, Inc.9.4 bn17.818.9%26.9%+1.6%+36% / +169%
MORNMorningstar, Inc.9.1 bn21.435.1%17.0%+7.5%+14% / −14%
VCTRVictory Capital Holdings, Inc.7.4 bn20.619.0%29.6%+46.2%+95% / +266%
MAASMAASE Inc.4.9 bn—-7.2%-102.1%−75.2%+182% / −95%
LAZLazard, Inc.4.5 bn24.420.6%5.5%+1.5%−19% / +36%
PJTPJT Partners Inc.3.9 bn19.783.2%10.6%+14.8%−6% / +76%
APAMArtisan Partners Asset Management Inc.3.3 bn9.373.1%24.5%+7.6%−2% / +7%
AAMIAcadian Asset Management Inc.3.3 bn32.4—15.2%+11.5%+104% / +425%
NOAHNoah Holdings Ltd2.4 bn30.75.8%21.4%+4.8%−31% / −45%
ABXAbacus Global Management, Inc.885.0 m32.56.6%10.5%+110.2%+37% / +31%
VRTSVirtus Investment Partners, Inc.853.6 m7.412.6%14.0%−6.0%−19% / −34%
GCMGGCM Grosvenor Inc.550.6 m30.0682.1%7.8%+8.5%+19% / +61%
VALUValue Line, Inc.416.6 m21.018.7%60.3%−4.7%+20% / +6%
WHGWestwood Holdings Group, Inc.182.5 m21.96.4%7.8%+3.2%+14% / +75%
RILYBRC Group Holdings, Inc.154.0 m0.3—35.9%+29.6%−12% / −79%
BVCBitVentures Limited138.6 m39.828.9%687.6%unavailable+1,203% / −76%

1- and 3-year price returns: for VCTR from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.

olivLaw engine forecast

The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.

The engine has no published run for this company yet.

Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)

Illustrative scenarios

Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.

Bear
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Base
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Bull
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Nothing is saved.

Estimated price (USD)

Estimated priceBearBaseBull
1 years
100.80
Total return -14% · Per year -14%
177.39
Total return 50% · Per year 50%
266.09
Total return 124% · Per year 124%
3 years
119.57
Total return 5% · Per year 2%
234.60
Total return 104% · Per year 27%
383.17
Total return 229% · Per year 49%
5 years
141.82
Total return 29% · Per year 5%
310.26
Total return 174% · Per year 22%
551.77
Total return 381% · Per year 37%
What moves the 3-year price the most
  • Exit P/E± 58.65
  • Net margin± 41.06
  • Annual revenue growth± 30.62
  • Annual dilution± 3.45

AI analysis

AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 06 Aug 2026; since then the company filed 8-K (04 Nov 2026 · results).

In brief

Victory Capital is a global asset manager with autonomous investment franchises and a centralized distribution platform. After the Amundi US acquisition, the company reported record second-quarter 2026 revenue and margins, and its assets rose to historic levels, with total client assets of 346.1 billion USD at June 30, 2026 23.

SWOT

Strengths

  • The company has a diversified business model, with autonomous franchises and a centralized distribution platform that supports organic growth 1.
  • Its acquisition and integration track record is solid, and the integration of Pioneer Investments was reported as complete in 2026 13.
  • Adjusted operating margins rose in recent quarters, indicating cost discipline and platform scalability 3.

Weaknesses

  • Revenue depends almost entirely on assets under management, so a decline in assets reduces profitability directly 1.
  • The company carries significant debt, which could limit financial flexibility in difficult periods 3.
  • Net flows were negative in 2025, and flow performance has depended on market conditions 1.

Opportunities

  • If investors keep seeking alternative assets and customized solutions, the company could expand its solutions platform 1.
  • International distribution, supported by the exclusive Amundi agreement, could bring new flows from clients outside the United States 1.
  • If its acquisition pipeline materializes, the company could add investment teams and diversify its assets 3.

Threats

  • Continued pressure toward passive and low-fee products could reduce fee revenue 1.
  • Market volatility and geopolitical tension can affect the value of assets under management and client confidence 1.
  • Losing key investment or senior management staff could affect strategy performance 1.

Risks

  • Dependence on assets under managementhigh

    Almost all revenue comes from fees on assets under management, so a fall in assets quickly translates into lower revenue and profit 1.

  • Strategy performancehigh

    Weak strategy performance could lead clients to withdraw assets, which could reduce the company's earnings 1.

  • Indebtednessmedium

    Total company debt could expose the company to material risks if financing conditions worsen 13.

  • Acquisition integrationmedium

    Expected benefits from mergers and acquisitions may fall short because of integration difficulties 1.

  • Regulation and compliancemedium

    The company is subject to extensive US and non-US regulation, and breaches could lead to fines and loss of assets 1.

Investment thesis

What would need to be true (bull case)

  • If long-term net flows stay positive, the company could keep growing assets and revenue, as the second-quarter 2026 results suggest 3.
  • High adjusted margins and the completed integration of Pioneer Investments could support profitability over the medium term 3.
  • The international distribution platform and acquisition strategy could open new sources of growth 1.

What would break the thesis

  • If pressure toward passive and low-fee products continues, revenue could grow more slowly than assets under management 1.
  • Significant debt could limit flexibility if markets or flows decline 3.
  • A fall in strategy performance relative to benchmarks could trigger asset withdrawals and affect results 1.

What to watch

  • Trend in long-term net flows and total client assetsQ3 2026
  • GAAP operating margin and adjusted EBITDA margin after the Pioneer Investments integrationQ3 2026
  • Total debt level and use of cash for share repurchases and dividendsnext 10-Q
  • Results of new acquisitions in the company's pipeline and how they are integrated2027

Products, market & competition

AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 06 Aug 2026; since then the company filed 8-K (04 Nov 2026 · results).

The business

Victory Capital Holdings, Inc. is a diversified global asset management firm that offers investment strategies to institutions, intermediaries, retirement platforms and individual investors 1. Its model combines boutique investment qualities with an integrated, centralized operating and distribution platform, while each investment franchise keeps autonomy over its investment process 1. The company operates through subsidiaries such as Victory Capital Management, Victory Capital Services (a broker-dealer) and Victory Capital Transfer Agency 1.

Growth has relied on acquisitions, starting from a management-led buyout in 2013 and continuing with eight closed acquisitions through the end of 2025 1. The most important was the combination of Amundi's US operations in April 2025 under the Pioneer Investments brand, which became the company's largest franchise 12. The company reported that the integration of Pioneer Investments was complete by August 2026 3.

Revenue is generated mainly from asset-based fees, so changes in assets and net flows directly affect profitability 1. The company reported positive long-term net flows in the second quarter of 2026, after net outflows in 2025 13.

Segments

Investment franchises

The company operates eight investment franchises, each with its own brand and process, including Pioneer Investments, Sycamore Capital, Victory Income Investors and RS Investments 1. Pioneer Investments is the largest, with a broad range of active strategies across asset classes 1.

Solutions platform

The solutions platform includes multi-asset, multi-manager, quantitative, rules-based and customized portfolios, offered through separate accounts, mutual funds, UMA accounts and VictoryShares ETFs 1. This platform supports flow growth in intermediary channels 3.

Distribution and channels

Distribution is centralized and covers institutional, retail, direct investor and international clients, with international clients making up part of total assets 1. The exclusive distribution agreement with Amundi outside the US extends access to clients in more than 60 countries 1.

Market context

Victory Capital operates in the global asset management market, where competition is intense and demand is shifting toward passive and low-fee products 1. The company serves investors in more than 60 countries, and part of its assets comes from clients outside the United States 1.

Market structure is also shaped by consolidation, and the company says more acquisition targets are available 1. Capital market performance can directly change assets under management and company revenue 12.

Trends

  • Demand for passive and low-fee productsheadwind

    Investor demand for passive and low-fee products could reduce assets under management and revenue if their share of the market keeps rising 1.

  • Interest in alternative assetstailwind

    Wider retail access to alternative products, under evolving regulation, could support growth as the company seeks to add capabilities in this area 1.

  • Industry consolidationmixed

    Consolidation can create acquisition opportunities but also competitive pressure, and the company cites both the opportunities and the intense competition in the industry 1.

  • Market volatility and geopolitical tensionheadwind

    Capital market volatility and geopolitical conflicts could reduce assets under management and investor confidence, although the company has not reported a material adverse effect on its results 1.

Competitive position

The asset management industry is intensely competitive and consolidating, and the company notes that relative performance against peers influences capital flows 1. Victory Capital competes with other investment firms offering active and passive funds, ETFs and institutional products 1.

The company's advantage lies in combining autonomous franchises with centralized distribution, which lets it compete for acquisitions and offer access to several channels 1. Still, competition in passive and low-fee products remains a constant pressure 1.

  • Other US asset managers

    Asset management firms competing for the same institutional and retail investors, referenced in the discussion of industry competition 1.

  • Passive ETF providers

    Issuers of passive and low-fee funds whose growing market share is cited as a risk to assets under management 1.

  • International investment firms

    Global asset managers competing in markets outside the United States, where the company has an extended presence through Amundi 1.

  • Investment consulting platforms

    Players in consulting and model-portfolio channels that influence allocations to strategies and managers 1.

News & filings

In the press

SEC filings

  • Current report04 Nov 2026
    Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
  • Current report13 Oct 2026
    Other events · Financial statements and exhibits
  • Current report11 Sept 2026
    Other events · Financial statements and exhibits
  • Current report31 Aug 2026
    Material agreement · Item 3.02 · Financial statements and exhibits
  • Current report26 Aug 2026
    Other events · Financial statements and exhibits
  • Current report12 Aug 2026
    Other events · Financial statements and exhibits
  • Quarterly report06 Aug 2026
  • Current report05 Aug 2026
    Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
  • Current report23 Jul 2026
    Departure or appointment of officers · Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
  • Current report13 Jul 2026
    Other events · Financial statements and exhibits

Sources

  1. [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · SEC / Victory Capital Holdings, Inc. · 26 Feb 2026
  2. [2] Form 10-Q, quarter ended 2026-06-30 · SEC / Victory Capital Holdings, Inc. · 06 Aug 2026
  3. [3] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / Victory Capital Holdings, Inc. · 05 Aug 2026

Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.