olivlawolivlaw

olivLaw · US equity research

Hawaiian Electric Industries, Inc. HE

Electric Services · SIC 4911 · Vertical: Electric Services (SIC 4911)

8.50USD+1.31% · 1 dayClose 04 Nov 2026

Hawaiian Electric Industries (HEI) is a holding company whose main business is regulated electricity supply in Hawaii, through Hawaiian Electric and its subsidiaries, which serve about 95% of the population. The company is now focused on paying Maui wildfire settlements, reducing debt and a major generation procurement, after reporting GAAP net income of 123 million USD in the second quarter of 2026.

At the close of 04 Nov 2026, Hawaiian Electric Industries, Inc. (HE) stock was 8.50 USD (+1.31% on the day), with market capitalisation 1.5 bn USD, P/E 6.5 on diluted EPS of 1.31 USD over the last 12 months, dividend yield 12.71%, beta 0.56, 52-week range 8.21–17.08 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q2 2026): revenue of 939.7 m USD (+25.9% YoY), net income of 123.2 m USD (+363.9% YoY), diluted EPS 0.71 USD.

Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.

Market cap
1.5 bn USD
shares as of 31 Jul 2026
P/E (TTM)
6.5
Diluted EPS TTM 1.31 · TTM to 30 Jun 2026
E/P (TTM)
15.40%
TTM to 30 Jun 2026
Dividend yield
12.71%
DPS 12m 1.08
Beta (2y)
0.56
Volatility (1y) 32%
52-week range
8.2117.08

Price history

Loading chart…

Technical reading

RSI (14)
41.5
weak (30–45)
Bollinger (20, 2)
8.22 – 8.91
in the lower half of the band · %B 0.41 · band width 8.1%
SMA 50 / 200
9.44 / 13.06
downtrend (price < SMA50 < SMA200)
MACD (12, 26, 9)
-0.25 / -0.33
MACD above signal

Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).

Performance

CompanyS&P 500vs S&P 500Vertical median
1 month−3.5%−1.1%−2.4 pp—
3 months−32.5%−0.5%−32.0 pp—
6 months−44.4%+4.4%−48.8 pp—
Year to date−30.9%+12.3%−43.2 pp—
1 year−26.7%+13.5%−40.3 pp−1.1%
3 years−38.6%+76.4%−115.0 pp+41.9%
5 years−79.4%+63.7%−143.1 pp—
Max drawdown (1y)
−51.9%
06 Feb 2026 → 26 Oct 2026
Max drawdown (5y)
−82.6%
20 Apr 2022 → 08 Jul 2024
Compound annual growth (5y)
−27.1%
S&P 500 +10.4%

Price returns, dividends excluded.

Quarterly results

Latest quarter: Q2 2026 · 30 Jun 2026

Revenue
939.7 m USD
+25.9% YoY
Net income
123.2 m USD
+363.9% YoY
Diluted EPS
0.71
+373.3% YoY
net / operating
13.1% / 21.7%

Quarterly margins

Quarterly statements · USD

Fiscal yearQ3 '24Q4 '24Q1 '25Q2 '25Q3 '25Q4 '25Q1 '26Q2 '26
Revenue833.2 m799.2 m744.1 m746.4 m790.6 m805.8 m746.4 m939.7 m
Operating income-149.7 m53.7 m62.4 m53.7 m52.0 m67.1 m53.4 m204.2 m
Depreciation & amortisation73.3 m73.4 m76.6 m76.1 m74.0 m72.3 m75.4 m75.4 m
Interest expense32.1 m31.1 m34.2 m27.3 m26.2 m29.7 m31.1 m48.4 m
Pre-tax income-172.7 m37.8 m33.5 m40.0 m39.9 m53.5 m38.6 m164.7 m
Income tax-50.0 m8.1 m6.4 m13.4 m8.7 m12.1 m8.1 m41.5 m
Net income-103.9 m-67.8 m27.1 m26.6 m ≈31.2 m ≈41.4 m30.5 m123.2 m ≈
Diluted EPS-0.91-0.400.150.150.180.24 ≈0.180.71
Operating cash flow157.5 m ≈136.6 m49.7 m134.8 m ≈100.3 m ≈106.4 m61.0 m-411.4 m ≈
Capex78.0 m ≈87.3 m86.5 m75.0 m ≈94.0 m ≈85.8 m103.5 m138.6 m ≈
Dividends paid0 ≈0——————

≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)

E/P over time

E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.

Today's P/E sits at the 3 percentile of its own 34-quarter history (min 6.5, median 18.8, max 138.0; quarters with earnings only).

Fiscal years

Fiscal year20182019202020212022202320242025
Revenue2.9 bn2.9 bn2.6 bn2.9 bn3.4 bn3.3 bn3.2 bn3.1 bn
Revenue YoY+11.9%+0.5%−10.2%+10.5%+20.0%−3.9%−2.1%−4.1%
Net income203.7 m219.8 m199.7 m248.1 m243.0 m201.1 m-1.4 bn126.3 m
Net income YoY+21.8%+7.9%−9.1%+24.2%−2.0%−17.2%−808.1%unavailable
Diluted EPS1.851.991.812.252.201.81-11.230.71
Diluted EPS YoY+21.7%+7.6%−9.0%+24.3%−2.2%−17.7%−720.4%unavailable
net %7.1%7.6%7.7%8.7%7.1%6.1%-44.2%4.1%
Free cash flow-38.1 m55.0 m45.5 m61.1 m115.1 m108.7 m143.2 m49.9 m

Reported results vs expectations

Loading…

Balance sheet & financial health

Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025

Cash
501.8 m USD
Financial debt
2.3 bn USD
Net debt
1.8 bn USD
Equity
1.6 bn USD
Total assets
8.9 bn USD
Debt / equity
1.42x
Current ratio
1.32x
ROE
8.2%
ROA
1.4%
FCF margin
1.6%

Financial statements (source on every figure)

Revenue and net income (USD)

Margins

Income statement · USD

Revenue
2023
3.3 bn
2024
3.2 bn
2025
3.1 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Operating income
2023
275.0 m
2024
-1.7 bn
2025
235.3 m

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Depreciation & amortisation
2023
282.3 m
2024
293.5 m
2025
298.9 m

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

EBITDA
2023
557.3 m ≈
2024
-1.4 bn ≈
2025
534.2 m ≈

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026derived

Interest expense
2023
208.3 m
2024
127.2 m
2025
117.3 m

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Pre-tax income
2023
182.3 m
2024
-1.8 bn
2025
166.9 m

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Income tax
2023
34.5 m
2024
-471.0 m
2025
40.6 m

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Net income
2023
201.1 m
2024
-1.4 bn
2025
126.3 m

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Diluted EPS
2023
1.81
2024
-11.23
2025
0.71

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Weighted average diluted shares
2023
110.0 m
2024
126.9 m
2025
173.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Dividend per share
2023
1.08
2024
—
2025
—

SEC (XBRL)· 29 Feb 2024verified

Balance sheet · USD

Cash
2023
244.1 m
2024
750.5 m
2025
501.8 m

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Receivables
2023
546.7 m
2024
457.2 m
2025
491.5 m

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Current assets
2023
—
2024
2.1 bn
2025
1.9 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Property, plant & equipment, net
2023
6.0 bn
2024
6.1 bn
2025
6.2 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Goodwill
2023
82.2 m
2024
—
2025
—

SEC (XBRL)· 29 Feb 2024verified

Total assets
2023
7.7 bn
2024
8.9 bn
2025
8.9 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Accounts payable
2023
198.9 m
2024
203.5 m
2025
219.1 m

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Short-term debt
2023
0
2024
48.6 m
2025
0

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Long-term debt
2023
2.8 bn
2024
2.7 bn
2025
2.3 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Current liabilities
2023
—
2024
1.3 bn
2025
1.4 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Total liabilities
2023
14.9 bn
2024
7.4 bn
2025
7.3 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Equity
2023
2.3 bn †
2024
1.5 bn †
2025
1.6 bn †

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Cash flow · USD

Operating cash flow
2023
551.5 m
2024
487.5 m
2025
391.1 m

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Capex
2023
442.7 m
2024
344.3 m
2025
341.2 m

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Free cash flow
2023
108.7 m ≈
2024
143.2 m ≈
2025
49.9 m ≈

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026derived

Investing cash flow
2023
-257.4 m
2024
258.3 m
2025
-322.2 m

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Financing cash flow
2023
195.6 m
2024
154.7 m
2025
-331.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Dividends paid
2023
74.0 m
2024
0
2025
0

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Computed indicators

Growth

Revenue growth (YoY)
-4.1%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Revenue CAGR 3Y
-3.4%
computed by olivLawFY 2022 → FY 2025
Revenue CAGR 5Y
3.7%
computed by olivLawFY 2020 → FY 2025
EBIT growth (YoY)
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
Net income growth (YoY)
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
Net income CAGR 3Y
-19.6%
computed by olivLawFY 2022 → FY 2025
Net income CAGR 5Y
-8.8%
computed by olivLawFY 2020 → FY 2025
EPS growth (YoY)
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
EPS CAGR 3Y
-31.4%
computed by olivLawFY 2022 → FY 2025
EPS CAGR 5Y
-17.1%
computed by olivLawFY 2020 → FY 2025
FCF growth (YoY)
-65.2%
computed by olivLawFY 2025

Profitability

Gross margin
unavailable
input data missing
EBITDA margin
20.5%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
EBIT margin
11.5%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Net margin
6.9%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
FCF margin
-17.2%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026

Returns

ROE
13.7%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
ROA
2.7%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
ROIC
8.1%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
ROCE
5.3%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Payout ratio (EPS)
unavailable
input data missing
Payout ratio (FCF)
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive

Balance sheet

Net debt
2.0 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Net debt / EBITDA
3.0x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Debt / equity
1.3x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Interest coverage
2.8x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026

Liquidity

Current ratio
1.0x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Quick ratio
unavailable
input data missing
Cash ratio
0.2x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026

Cash

Operating cash flow
-143.7 m USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Capital expenditure
421.8 m USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Free cash flow
-565.5 m USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
FCF conversion
-250.0%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Cash conversion
-21.3%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026

Efficiency

Days sales outstanding
unavailable
input data missing
Days payables outstanding
unavailable
input data missing

Market and valuation

Market capitalisation
1.5 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Enterprise value
3.5 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Market cap / net income TTM
6.5x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
P/E (TTM)
6.5x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Earnings yield
15.4%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
P/B
0.8x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
P/S
0.4x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
EV/EBITDA
5.2x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
EV/EBIT
9.3x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
EV/Sales
1.1x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
P/FCF
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
FCF yield
-38.5%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Dividend yield
12.7%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Shareholder yield (distributions)
0.0%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026

3 indicators that do not apply to the sector.

Valuation

olivLaw classification

Neutral profile

Score: 61 / 100

A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.

Closing price

8.50 USD

04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series

Market cap: 1.5 bn USD

Key indicators

Market capitalisation
1.5 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
P/E (TTM)
6.5x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
P/B
0.8x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
EV/EBITDA
5.2x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
ROE
13.7%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Net margin
6.9%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Revenue growth (YoY)
-4.1%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Dividend yield
12.7%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026

Coverage and freshness

29/37 reporting lines present
Latest full fiscal year: 2025
Latest reported period: 30 Jun 2026
Latest balance sheet date: 30 Jun 2026
Share count (cover of the latest filing), as of: 31 Jul 2026
Source: SEC (XBRL)published 07 Aug 2026
verified 2097derived 116

Score by group

  • Valuation91
  • Returns96
  • Quality53
  • Balance sheet53
  • Growth0

Estimated value range

Low
26.04
USD per share
Mid
28.38
USD per share
High
31.32
USD per share
Price: 8.50 USD
The price is below the range
Potential to the central value: 233.9% (value / price − 1)
Margin of safety: 70.1% (1 − price / value)
Agreement between methods: medium · 3 methods used · 2 independent bases

The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 14.19 – 41.89 USD.

Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.

Method ranges (USD per share)

— — Mid · ▏ Price

Valuation methods

  • DCF (discounted cash flow)unavailable · the base of the ratio is not positive
  • Dividend discount (DDM)14.19 – 19.09 (Mid 16.28)
  • Peers: EV/EBITDA26.68 – 41.89 (Mid 34.47)
    23 companies used · median multiple 11.8x · quartiles 9.8x – 13.7x
    AEP, AQN, BKH, CEG, CNP, CWEN, D, EIX, ELLO, ENLT, ES, ETR, IDA, NEE, NRG, OTTR, PNW, POR, SO, SPRU, TVC, TXNM, VST
  • Peers: P/E26.04 – 31.32 (Mid 28.38)
    18 companies used · median multiple 21.7x · quartiles 19.9x – 23.9x
    AEP, AQN, BKH, CEG, CNP, D, ES, ETR, FE, IDA, NEE, NRG, OTTR, PNW, POR, PPL, SO, VST
Multiple comparisons use the SIC vertical: Electric Services (SIC 4911)

Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.

Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)

Risk-free rate
4.3%
Equity risk premium
5.0%
Beta (default)
1.00
Cost of equity
9.3%
Terminal growth
2.5%

Factor scorecard

Neutral profile · Score 61/100

FactorValueScoreWeight used
ROIC · Quality8.1%71 (vs peers)7%
Net margin · Quality6.9%34 (vs peers)7%
Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth-3.4%0 (on a fixed band)7%
EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth-31.4%0 (on a fixed band)9%
Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet3.0x72 (vs peers)14%
Interest coverage · Balance sheet2.8x37 (on a fixed band)11%
Current ratio · Balance sheet1.0x36 (on a fixed band)5%
P/E (TTM) · Valuation6.5x89 (vs peers)14%
EV/EBITDA · Valuation5.2x92 (vs peers)11%
Dividend yield · Returns12.7%96 (vs peers)16%
Payout ratio (EPS) · Returnsunavailableunavailable—

Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.

Score groups

  • Balance sheet53/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
  • Growth0/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
  • Quality53/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
  • Returns· partial96/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
  • Valuation91/100 · 2/2 factors with a value

A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.

Memo

HAWAIIAN ELECTRIC INDUSTRIES, INC. (HE). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2026-06-30.

Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 3.1 bn USD in 2025; YoY growth -4.1%; net margin 6.9%; ROE 13.7%; net debt/EBITDA 3.0x.

The estimated value range is 26.04–31.32 USD per share (median of 3 methods, agreement: medium); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 28.38 USD, the price of 8.50 USD leaves a potential of 233.9% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of 70.1% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.

olivLaw score 61/100, methodological classification: neutral profile (score, margin of safety and method agreement together; not a judgement of the right price). Groups assessed only in part: returns. Not investment advice.

Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.

What supports the thesis

  • ROIC: 8.1%
  • Net debt / EBITDA: 3.0x
  • P/E (TTM): 6.5x
  • EV/EBITDA: 5.2x
  • Dividend yield: 12.7%
  • The price is below the estimated value range

What contradicts it

  • Revenue CAGR 3Y: -3.4%
  • EPS CAGR 3Y: -31.4%

Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): Payout ratio (EPS).

Versus the vertical median

Electric Services (SIC 4911) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 39 companies

Multiples and returns vs the median

P/E
6.5x
vertical median 22.2x
below median (−70.7%)
EV/EBITDA
5.2x
vertical median 12.1x
below median (−57.1%)
P/S
0.4x
vertical median 2.9x
below median (−84.4%)
P/B
0.8x
vertical median 2.1x
below median (−60.4%)
ROE
13.7%
vertical median 8.8%
above median (+56.4%)
Net margin
6.9%
vertical median 11.1%
below median (−37.8%)
EBIT margin
11.5%
vertical median 21.5%
below median (−46.7%)
Revenue YoY
-4.1%
vertical median 8.3%
below median (−149.5%)
Net debt/EBITDA
3.0x
vertical median 4.8x
below median (−37.7%)
Dividend yield
12.7%
vertical median 3.2%
above median (+299.7%)

Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)

Companies in the vertical

Market capP/EROENet marginRevenue YoY1A / 3A
NEENextera Energy Inc184.4 bn22.515.6%31.5%+9.8%+3% / +51%
SOSouthern Co105.0 bn23.911.3%14.5%+10.6%+2% / +31%
PAMPampa Energy Inc.88.2 bn141.021.8%33.0%+8.3%−28% / +38%
CEGConstellation Energy Corporation87.1 bn24.015.3%11.1%+8.3%−33% / +103%
AEPAmerican Electric Power Company, Inc.70.3 bn19.012.8%16.9%+10.9%+4% / +62%
DDominion Energy, Inc61.3 bn20.610.5%16.9%+14.2%+11% / +54%
ETREntergy Corp51.2 bn28.411.1%13.6%+9.0%+15% / +121%
VSTVistra Operations Company LLC40.4 bn19.943.1%11.6%+3.0%−33% / +240%
FEFirstenergy Corp27.3 bn25.78.4%6.9%+12.0%−1% / +28%
PPLPPL Corp26.9 bn21.88.3%13.1%+6.9%−3% / +37%
CNPCenterpoint Energy Inc26.8 bn25.29.6%11.4%+8.3%+3% / +45%
ESEversource Energy26.5 bn18.29.1%10.4%+13.8%+5% / +19%
EIXEdison International23.7 bn6.520.8%19.6%+9.8%+4% / −8%
NRGNRG Energy, Inc17.5 bn21.623.8%2.6%+9.2%−51% / +74%
TLNTalen Energy Corporation14.2 bn—-16.7%-6.4%+22.0%−17% / +470%
PNWPinnacle West Capital Corporation12.8 bn19.89.1%11.7%+4.2%+16% / +41%
ENLTEnlight Renewable Energy Ltd.8.9 bn67.79.2%27.0%+29.3%+69% / +293%
IDAIDACORP, Inc.8.7 bn23.29.9%20.5%−1.2%+12% / +53%
BEPBrookfield Renewable Partners L.P.8.5 bn—-1.9%-1.1%+9.0%+8% / +25%
CWENClearway Energy, Inc.7.3 bn72.61.8%6.4%+4.2%−2% / +43%
TXNMTXNM Energy, Inc.6.5 bn41.15.5%7.5%+9.9%+0% / +41%
BKHBlack Hills Corporation6.4 bn21.37.9%13.0%+8.6%+14% / +63%
PORPortland General Electric Company5.5 bn19.76.6%7.7%+4.0%−9% / +12%
OKLOOklo Inc.4.1 bn—-7.7%—unavailable−76% / +114%
OTTROtter Tail Corporation3.5 bn20.09.4%13.6%−2.3%+2% / +10%

1- and 3-year price returns: for HE from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.

olivLaw engine forecast

The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.

The engine has no published run for this company yet.

Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)

Illustrative scenarios

Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.

Bear
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Base
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Bull
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Nothing is saved.

Estimated price (USD)

Estimated priceBearBaseBull
1 years
4.63
Total return -46% · Per year -46%
8.22
Total return -3% · Per year -3%
12.43
Total return 46% · Per year 46%
3 years
3.81
Total return -55% · Per year -23%
7.68
Total return -10% · Per year -3%
12.84
Total return 51% · Per year 15%
5 years
3.14
Total return -63% · Per year -18%
7.17
Total return -16% · Per year -3%
13.26
Total return 56% · Per year 9%
What moves the 3-year price the most
  • Exit P/E± 1.92
  • Net margin± 1.34
  • Annual revenue growth± 1.19
  • Annual dilution± 0.11

AI analysis

AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

In brief

Hawaiian Electric Industries (HEI) is a holding company whose main business is regulated electricity supply in Hawaii, through Hawaiian Electric and its subsidiaries, which serve about 95% of the population 1. The company is now focused on paying Maui wildfire settlements, reducing debt and a major generation procurement, after reporting GAAP net income of 123 million USD in the second quarter of 2026 3.

SWOT

Strengths

  • Regulated monopoly on most islands, giving predictable revenue and an essential role in power supply.
  • Improved liquidity from expanded credit lines and the 2025 senior notes issue.
  • Credit ratings improving, according to the latest 2026 updates.

Weaknesses

  • Credit ratings remain below investment grade, which raises the cost of capital.
  • The holding company depends on utility dividends, which are restricted by the common equity threshold.
  • Core earnings declined from the prior year, and the GAAP gain is largely non-recurring.

Opportunities

  • Rate rebasing in 2027 could allow recovery of higher operating costs.
  • Securitization of wildfire mitigation costs could ease pressure on customers.
  • Competitive renewable procurement could lower long-term costs.

Threats

  • Staged payments for the Maui litigation settlement could strain liquidity if financing falls short.
  • Wildfire and extreme weather risk could bring new losses and penalties.
  • Dependence of the local economy on tourism and federal spending can affect demand and revenue.

Risks

  • Funding of Maui wildfire settlementhigh

    Settlement commitments could exceed financing capacity if conditions are not met or if insurers keep litigating, and alternative measures could be drastic 1.

  • Below investment grade ratingshigh

    The cost of capital could stay high if ratings do not return to investment grade over an extended period 1.

  • Wildfires and extreme weathermedium

    Infrastructure damage could cause losses and regulatory penalties, including if power cannot be restored on time 1.

  • Regulatory dependencemedium

    Rates, cost recovery and investment approval depend on the PUC, whose decisions may differ from company expectations 13.

  • Island economylow

    Tourism and federal spending drive local demand, and a decline could reduce utility revenue 12.

Investment thesis

What would need to be true (bull case)

  • If ratings keep improving, funding costs could fall and support infrastructure investment 3.
  • The 2027 rate rebasing could allow recovery of higher operating costs, which could stabilize utility revenue 3.
  • Competitive renewable procurement could lower long-term costs for customers and the company 3.

What would break the thesis

  • Settlement payments could absorb a large share of liquidity, and financing could cost more than expected 1.
  • The emissions target could be reached later than 2030, which could create regulatory and reputational pressure 1.
  • If utility dividends stay restricted, the holding company could struggle to service debt and pay dividends 1.

What to watch

  • PUC decision on the IGP renewable and generation procurement2026
  • Payment of the second settlement installment and its funding2027
  • Rating actions by Fitch, Moody's and S&P relative to investment gradenext 10-K
  • Outcome of the rate rebasing and any changes to the PBR framework2027

Products, market & competition

AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

The business

HEI is a holding company based in Honolulu, Hawaii, whose only reportable segment is electric utility. Its main assets are Hawaiian Electric, Hawaii Electric Light and Maui Electric, regulated public utilities that generate, buy, transmit, distribute and sell electricity across five separate grids 1. The company has since sold its ASB bank and divested most Pacific Current assets, so the utilities remain its main operating entities 1.

Dividends from the utility subsidiaries are the holding company's main source of funds, and their payment is subject to contractual and regulatory limits, including a common equity threshold in the PUC agreement 1. The utilities are regulated by the Public Utilities Commission of Hawaii, which approves rates and investment spending 1.

In 2025 the utilities produced nearly all of HEI's consolidated revenue, which makes their regulatory performance the main driver of results 1. The company operates only in Hawaii, and most employees work at Hawaiian Electric, where about half the workforce is covered by a collective bargaining agreement 1.

Segments

Electric utility (regulated utilities)

The reportable segment includes Hawaiian Electric, Hawaii Electric Light and Maui Electric, which supply power on Oahu, Hawaii, Maui, Lanai and Molokai across a service area of about 5,800 square miles 1. In the second quarter of 2026 revenues rose 26%, mainly from the utility segment 2.

All Other (non-reportable)

The All Other segment covers the holding company's corporate costs and the results of Pacific Current, which is being divested apart from Mahipapa, still to be sold 1. It also includes a 40% interest in GLST1, created to hold the first liability installment of the wildfire tort settlement 1.

Market context

Capital market access matters as well, since credit ratings below investment grade limit access to lower-cost funding 1. Ratings were partly improved in 2026, after one agency upgraded S&P's rating, which could lower borrowing costs if the trend continues 3.

Trends

  • Energy transition and renewablesmixed

    The climate plan targets a 70% cut in emissions by 2030, but progress was about 25% at end-2025 because of project delays and higher costs 1. The IGP renewable procurement could speed the transition if approved at competitive prices 3.

  • Rate regulation and rebasingmixed

    The company expects rates to be rebased in 2027, which could allow recovery of higher O&M and insurance costs if the PUC approves the proposed changes 3. Until then 2026 is described as a transitional year with expense pressure 3.

  • Insurance and storm costsheadwind

    Higher insurance premiums and storm response costs add to operating expenses and keep pressure on utility margins 3. Earlier insurance costs were deferred through regulatory mechanisms 2.

  • Refinancing and debt reductiontailwind

    The September 2025 senior notes issue and expanded credit line raised liquidity, and the latest quarter showed a ratings improvement 13. If ratings keep rising, funding costs could fall.

Competitive position

Hawaiian Electric has no market competitors in regulated distribution on most islands, but competition comes from independent power producers that sell to utilities under purchase contracts 1. In the IGP plan the company promotes competitive procurement for all generation types to secure lower prices 3.

Indirect competition comes from rooftop solar and customer-level storage, which reduce grid demand and change utility economics 1. The sources do not identify US-listed competitors with the same profile.

  • Independent power producers (IPPs)

    Sell renewable and storage power to utilities under contracts, and the sources show their financing difficulties have slowed projects.

  • Rooftop solar and customer-level storage operators

    Reduce grid purchases through rooftop installations and batteries, changing utility demand.

  • New generation bidders in the IGP procurement

    Companies that could win contracts in the procurement for variable energy and firm capacity.

  • Other energy suppliers in the region

    The sources describe no direct competition from other Hawaii operators, so their impact remains limited.

News & filings

In the press

The latest news item in our archive is from 16 Sept 2026; the newest SEC filing is from 21 Sept 2026. The press archive comes from the RSS feeds we follow and does not necessarily cover the latest event — the filings alongside do.

SEC filings

Sources

  1. [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · SEC / Hawaiian Electric Industries, Inc. · 27 Feb 2026
  2. [2] Form 10-Q, quarter ended 2026-06-30 · SEC / Hawaiian Electric Industries, Inc. · 07 Aug 2026
  3. [3] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / Hawaiian Electric Industries, Inc. · 07 Aug 2026

Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.