olivLaw · US equity research
Maximus, Inc. MMS
Services-Business Services, NEC · SIC 7389 · Vertical: Services-Business Services, NEC (SIC 7389)
Maximus is a provider of tech-enabled services to government agencies, with revenue of 5431,276 million USD in fiscal 2025 and a dominant share from U.S. federal customers. The company has agreed to acquire Agile Defense for 660 million USD, a move meant to extend its work in defense and national security.
At the close of 05 Nov 2026, Maximus, Inc. (MMS) stock was 69.22 USD (+1.04% on the day), with market capitalisation 3.6 bn USD, P/E 10.2 on diluted EPS of 6.76 USD over the last 12 months, dividend yield 1.82%, beta 0.37, 52-week range 52.10–98.93 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q3 2026): revenue of 1.3 bn USD (−5.1% YoY), net income of 103.6 m USD (−2.3% YoY), diluted EPS 1.95 USD.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
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Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 75.2
- overbought (≥ 70)
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 56.45 – 68.62
- above the upper band · %B 1.05 · band width 19.5%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 58.62 / 64.22
- mixed trend
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- 2.68 / 2.06
- MACD above signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | S&P 500 | vs S&P 500 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | +26.6% | −1.1% | +27.7 pp | — |
| 3 months | +18.7% | −0.5% | +19.1 pp | — |
| 6 months | +3.8% | +4.4% | −0.6 pp | — |
| Year to date | −19.8% | +12.3% | −32.1 pp | — |
| 1 year | −17.7% | +13.5% | −31.2 pp | −14.6% |
| 3 years | −10.1% | +76.4% | −86.5 pp | −8.8% |
| 5 years | −19.8% | +63.7% | −83.4 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
Latest quarter: Q3 2026 · 30 Jun 2026
Quarterly margins
Quarterly statements · USD
| Fiscal year | Q4 '24 | Q1 '25 | Q2 '25 | Q3 '25 | Q4 '25 | Q1 '26 | Q2 '26 | Q3 '26 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 1.3 bn | 1.4 bn | 1.4 bn | 1.3 bn | 1.3 bn | 1.3 bn | 1.3 bn | 1.3 bn |
| Cost of revenue | 1.0 bn | 1.1 bn | 1.0 bn | 988.9 m | 984.9 m | 1.0 bn | 963.7 m | 930.2 m |
| Gross profit | 301.7 m | 301.6 m | 338.8 m | 359.5 m | 333.6 m | 318.7 m | 342.3 m | 348.8 m |
| SG&A | 166.9 m | 191.7 m | 162.9 m | 170.8 m | 187.7 m | 152.2 m | 173.5 m | 167.2 m |
| Operating income | 111.8 m | 86.8 m | 153.0 m | 165.7 m | 122.9 m | 146.2 m | 148.5 m | 161.4 m |
| Depreciation & amortisation | — | 8.5 m | 9.4 m | 9.6 m | 14.2 m | 12.9 m | 12.3 m | 11.9 m |
| Interest expense | 20.0 m | 17.5 m | 21.5 m | 22.7 m | 22.4 m | 20.8 m | 22.1 m | 23.9 m |
| Pre-tax income | 92.7 m | 69.0 m | 132.5 m | 143.0 m | 100.5 m | 126.3 m | 126.5 m | 138.2 m |
| Income tax | 20.2 m | 27.8 m | 35.9 m | 37.0 m | 25.2 m | 32.3 m | 28.5 m | 34.6 m |
| Net income | 72.5 m | 41.2 m | 96.6 m | 106.0 m | 75.3 m | 93.9 m | 98.1 m | 103.6 m |
| Diluted EPS | 1.18 ≈ | 0.69 | 1.69 | 1.86 | 1.31 ≈ | 1.70 | 1.80 | 1.95 |
| Operating cash flow | 163.8 m | -80.0 m | 42.7 m ≈ | -182.7 m ≈ | 649.4 m | -244.4 m | 189.5 m ≈ | -125.0 m ≈ |
| Capex | 32.0 m | 23.0 m | 17.2 m ≈ | 15.5 m ≈ | 7.5 m | 6.3 m | 10.5 m ≈ | 12.0 m ≈ |
| Dividends paid | 18.1 m | 18.1 m | 16.9 m ≈ | 16.9 m ≈ | 16.8 m | 16.3 m | 17.8 m ≈ | 17.3 m ≈ |
| Share repurchases | 25.8 m | 228.6 m | 77.9 m ≈ | 0 ≈ | 141.0 m | 40.6 m | 114.4 m ≈ | 49.9 m ≈ |
≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Today's P/E sits at the 5 percentile of its own 39-quarter history (min 8.0, median 19.6, max 30.2; quarters with earnings only).
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 2.4 bn | 2.9 bn | 3.5 bn | 4.3 bn | 4.6 bn | 4.9 bn | 5.3 bn | 5.4 bn |
| Revenue YoY | −2.4% | +20.7% | +19.9% | +22.9% | +8.9% | +5.9% | +8.2% | +2.4% |
| Net income | 220.8 m | 240.8 m | 214.5 m | 291.2 m | 203.8 m | 161.8 m | 306.9 m | 319.0 m |
| Net income YoY | +5.4% | +9.1% | −10.9% | +35.8% | −30.0% | −20.6% | +89.7% | +3.9% |
| Diluted EPS | 3.35 | 3.72 | 3.39 | 4.67 | 3.29 | 2.63 | 4.99 | 5.51 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | +5.7% | +11.0% | −8.9% | +37.8% | −29.6% | −20.1% | +89.7% | +10.4% |
| net % | 9.2% | 8.3% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 4.4% | 3.3% | 5.8% | 5.9% |
| Free cash flow | 290.3 m | 289.9 m | 203.9 m | 480.8 m | 233.7 m | 223.6 m | 401.1 m | 366.2 m |
Reported results vs expectations
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Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2025 · 30 Sept 2025
- Cash
- 222.4 m USD
- Financial debt
- 1.3 bn USD
- Net debt
- 1.1 bn USD
- Equity
- 1.7 bn USD
- Total assets
- 4.1 bn USD
- Debt / equity
- 0.80x
- Current ratio
- 1.64x
- ROE
- 18.1%
- ROA
- 7.8%
- FCF margin
- 6.7%
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (USD)
Margins
Income statement · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 3.5 bn | 4.3 bn | 4.6 bn | 4.9 bn | 5.3 bn | 5.4 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 20 Nov 2025verified |
| Cost of revenue | 2.8 bn | 3.3 bn | 3.7 bn | 3.9 bn | 4.1 bn | 4.1 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 20 Nov 2025verified |
| Gross profit | 711.0 m | 947.0 m | 939.8 m | 1.0 bn | 1.3 bn | 1.3 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 20 Nov 2025verified |
| SG&A | 387.1 m | 494.1 m | 534.5 m | 639.2 m | 671.6 m | 713.1 m | SEC (XBRL)· 20 Nov 2025verified |
| Operating income | 288.3 m | 408.5 m | 325.9 m | 294.8 m | 488.5 m | 528.3 m | SEC (XBRL)· 20 Nov 2025verified |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 64.5 m | 46.4 m | 42.3 m | 54.7 m | 34.0 m | 41.7 m | SEC (XBRL)· 20 Nov 2025verified |
| EBITDA | 352.8 m ≈ | 454.9 m ≈ | 368.2 m ≈ | 349.5 m ≈ | 522.5 m ≈ | 570.0 m ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 20 Nov 2025derived |
| Interest expense | 2.1 m | 14.7 m | 46.0 m | 84.1 m | 82.4 m | 84.1 m | SEC (XBRL)· 20 Nov 2025verified |
| Pre-tax income | 287.1 m | 383.7 m | 277.1 m | 210.3 m | 406.5 m | 444.8 m | SEC (XBRL)· 20 Nov 2025verified |
| Income tax | 72.6 m | 92.5 m | 73.3 m | 48.5 m | 99.6 m | 125.8 m | SEC (XBRL)· 20 Nov 2025verified |
| Net income | 214.5 m | 291.2 m | 203.8 m | 161.8 m | 306.9 m | 319.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 20 Nov 2025verified |
| Diluted EPS | 3.39 | 4.67 | 3.29 | 2.63 | 4.99 | 5.51 | SEC (XBRL)· 20 Nov 2025verified |
| Weighted average diluted shares | 63.3 m | 62.4 m | 62.0 m | 61.5 m | 61.5 m | 57.9 m | SEC (XBRL)· 20 Nov 2025verified |
| Dividend per share | 1.12 | 1.12 | 1.12 | 1.12 | 1.20 | 1.20 | SEC (XBRL)· 20 Nov 2025verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating income + Depreciation & amortisation.
Balance sheet · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 71.7 m | 135.1 m | 40.7 m | 65.4 m | 183.1 m | 222.4 m | SEC (XBRL)· 20 Nov 2025verified |
| Receivables | 786.2 m | 834.8 m | 807.1 m | 826.9 m | 879.5 m | 898.1 m | SEC (XBRL)· 20 Nov 2025verified |
| Current assets | 932.6 m | 1.1 bn | 1.0 bn | 1.1 bn | 1.2 bn | 1.3 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 20 Nov 2025verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | 66.7 m | 62.6 m | 52.3 m | 38.8 m | 39.0 m | 31.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 20 Nov 2025verified |
| Goodwill | 593.1 m | 1.8 bn | 1.8 bn | 1.8 bn | 1.8 bn | 1.8 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 20 Nov 2025verified |
| Intangibles (excl. goodwill) | 145.9 m | 879.2 m | 804.9 m | 703.6 m | 630.6 m | 538.3 m | SEC (XBRL)· 20 Nov 2025verified |
| Total assets | 2.0 bn | 4.1 bn | 4.0 bn | 4.0 bn | 4.1 bn | 4.1 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 20 Nov 2025verified |
| Accounts payable | 253.3 m | 305.6 m | 264.6 m | 282.1 m | 303.3 m | 296.9 m | SEC (XBRL)· 20 Nov 2025verified |
| Short-term debt | 10.9 m | 80.6 m | 63.5 m | 86.8 m | 40.1 m | 52.7 m | SEC (XBRL)· 20 Nov 2025verified |
| Long-term debt | 18.0 m | 1.4 bn | 1.3 bn | 1.2 bn | 1.1 bn | 1.3 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 20 Nov 2025verified |
| Current liabilities | 561.2 m | 789.4 m | 774.4 m | 723.0 m | 807.5 m | 765.2 m | SEC (XBRL)· 20 Nov 2025verified |
| Total liabilities | 782.9 m | 2.6 bn | 2.4 bn | 2.3 bn | 2.3 bn | 2.4 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 20 Nov 2025verified |
| Equity | 1.2 bn | 1.5 bn | 1.5 bn | 1.7 bn | 1.8 bn | 1.7 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 20 Nov 2025verified |
Cash flow · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | 244.6 m | 517.3 m | 289.8 m | 314.3 m | 515.3 m | 429.4 m | SEC (XBRL)· 20 Nov 2025verified |
| Capex | 40.7 m | 36.6 m | 56.1 m | 90.7 m | 114.2 m | 63.2 m | SEC (XBRL)· 20 Nov 2025verified |
| Free cash flow | 203.9 m ≈ | 480.8 m ≈ | 233.7 m ≈ | 223.6 m ≈ | 401.1 m ≈ | 366.2 m ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 20 Nov 2025derived |
| Investing cash flow | -44.1 m | -1.8 bn | -54.0 m | -81.0 m | -129.1 m | -60.3 m | SEC (XBRL)· 20 Nov 2025verified |
| Financing cash flow | -230.1 m | 1.4 bn | -248.3 m | -250.8 m | -275.6 m | -343.9 m | SEC (XBRL)· 20 Nov 2025verified |
| Dividends paid | 70.2 m | 68.8 m | 68.7 m | 68.1 m | 72.9 m | 68.7 m | SEC (XBRL)· 20 Nov 2025verified |
| Share repurchases | 167.0 m | 3.4 m | 96.1 m | 0 | 73.1 m | 447.5 m | SEC (XBRL)· 20 Nov 2025verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating cash flow − Capex.
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
Risk
Valuation
olivLaw classification
Score: 78 / 100
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
score >= 65 · margin_of_safety >= 0.15 · agreement in ['high', 'medium']
Closing price
05 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 3.6 bn USD
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
- Balance sheet62
- Returns100
- Quality70
- Growth73
- Valuation91
Estimated value range
The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 95.01 – 259.42 USD.
Methods computed but outside the aggregate range: Dividend discount (DDM) (a small share of earnings is paid as dividends (capital returns through buybacks): the dividend model does not describe the value and stays outside the aggregate).
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Method ranges (USD per share)
— — Mid · ▏ Price
Valuation methods
- DCF (discounted cash flow)126.19 – 240.13 (Mid 167.16)WACC 7.8% · starting FCFF 500.6 m USD · terminal value share of EV 78%The WACC × g sensitivity gives the method's bounds; these are not probabilities.Reverse DCF: starting growth implied by the price (fading linearly to terminal growth, everything else fixed): -21.8%
- Peers: EV/EBITDA95.01 – 188.94 (Mid 156.32)13 companies used · median multiple 15.5x · quartiles 10.4x – 18.2xBR, CPAY, EBAY, FICO, FIS, GPN, IMXI, MELI, MSCI, OPRX, PYPL, RBA, UBER
- Peers: P/E134.36 – 259.42 (Mid 183.72)19 companies used · median multiple 27.2x · quartiles 19.9x – 38.4xACN, AMTM, BR, CPAY, EBAY, FICO, FIS, GRAB, IMXI, MA, MELI, MSCI, OPRX, PAYO, PDD, PYPL, RBA, UBER, WSE
- Dividend discount (DDM)outside the aggregate15.77 – 21.21 (Mid 18.09)a small share of earnings is paid as dividends (capital returns through buybacks): the dividend model does not describe the value and stays outside the aggregate
Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 4.3%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 9.3%
- Terminal growth
- 2.5%
Factor scorecard
Attractive profile · Score 78/100
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | 13.1% | 60 (vs peers) | 10% |
| Net margin · Quality | 7.1% | 58 (vs peers) | 6% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | 116.8% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 6% |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | 5.5% | 45 (on a fixed band) | 8% |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | 18.8% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 8% |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | 2.5x | 39 (vs peers) | 10% |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | 6.5x | 77 (on a fixed band) | 6% |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 2.4x | 100 (on a fixed band) | 4% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | 10.2x | 90 (vs peers) | 10% |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | 8.3x | 86 (vs peers) | 10% |
| FCF yield · Valuation | 12.0% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 8% |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | 11.4% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 6% |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | 15.8% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 4% |
Score groups
- Balance sheet62/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
- Growth73/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
- Quality70/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
- Returns100/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
- Valuation91/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
Memo
Maximus, Inc. (MMS). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2026-06-30.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 5.4 bn USD in 2025; YoY growth 2.4%; net margin 7.1%; ROE 21.1%; net debt/EBITDA 2.5x.
The estimated value range is 126.19–240.13 USD per share (median of 3 methods, agreement: high); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 167.16 USD, the price of 69.22 USD leaves a potential of 141.5% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of 58.6% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
olivLaw score 78/100, methodological classification: attractive profile (score, margin of safety and method agreement together; not a judgement of the right price). Not investment advice.
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- FCF conversion: 116.8%
- EPS CAGR 3Y: 18.8%
- Interest coverage: 6.5x
- Current ratio: 2.4x
- P/E (TTM): 10.2x
- EV/EBITDA: 8.3x
- FCF yield: 12.0%
- Shareholder yield (distributions): 11.4%
- Payout ratio (FCF): 15.8%
- The price is below the estimated value range
What contradicts it
No signal among the computed factors. That is not an absence of risk: factors without data were not assessed, and business risks (margins, inventory, demand) are in the source-based analysis.
Versus the vertical median
Services-Business Services, NEC (SIC 7389) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 39 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PDDPDD Holdings Inc. | 478.0 bn | 35.6 | 27.4% | 22.7% | +14.5% | −28% / −43% |
| BABAAlibaba Group Holding Ltd | 200.8 bn | 135.1 | 10.3% | 10.1% | +8.1% | −31% / +44% |
| UBERUber Technologies, Inc. | 142.7 bn | 41.3 | 12.4% | 6.1% | +18.3% | −20% / +24% |
| MELIMercadoLibre, Inc. | 88.2 bn | 47.3 | 27.5% | 5.3% | +39.1% | −16% / +7% |
| EBAYeBay Inc. | 54.9 bn | 27.2 | 46.6% | 16.9% | +7.9% | +51% / +205% |
| PYPLPayPal Holdings, Inc. | 50.0 bn | 11.5 | 23.8% | 13.8% | +4.3% | −4% / +4% |
| MSCIMsci Inc. | 48.2 bn | 35.7 | — | 40.3% | +9.7% | +20% / +29% |
| FISVFiserv, Inc. | 33.0 bn | — | -17.0% | -18.9% | +3.6% | +1% / −52% |
| CPAYCorpay, Inc | 27.5 bn | 25.4 | 30.5% | 22.7% | +13.9% | +42% / +74% |
| GPNGlobal Payments Inc. | 25.4 bn | — | -4.1% | -9.1% | −0.4% | +27% / −17% |
| BRBroadridge Financial Solutions, Inc. | 21.4 bn | 20.9 | 40.2% | 13.9% | +8.5% | −17% / −2% |
| RBARB Global, Inc | 17.6 bn | 39.9 | 8.8% | 10.0% | +7.2% | −3% / +49% |
| FISFidelity National Information Services, Inc. | 15.3 bn | 4.4 | 23.0% | 26.8% | +5.4% | −55% / −49% |
| FICOFair Isaac Corp | 15.1 bn | 20.3 | — | 34.1% | +15.9% | −61% / −36% |
| ALITAlight, Inc. | 5.7 bn | — | -67.9% | -46.0% | −3.0% | −72% / −92% |
| AMTMAmentum Holdings, Inc. | 5.2 bn | 25.7 | 4.5% | 1.4% | +71.6% | −25% / unavailable |
| XMTRXometry, Inc. | 5.0 bn | — | -3.9% | -2.0% | +25.9% | +86% / +345% |
| MMSMaximus, Inc. | 3.6 bn | 10.2 | 21.1% | 7.1% | +2.4% | −18% / −10% |
| PAYOPayoneer Global Inc. | 2.4 bn | 49.2 | 7.1% | 4.6% | +7.7% | +24% / +38% |
| AHGAkso Health Group | 2.1 bn | 129.5 | -9.8% | -135.0% | −6.4% | −13% / +52% |
| ACVACopart Inc | 1.8 bn | — | -15.1% | -7.9% | +19.2% | +16% / −21% |
| ADVAdvantage Solutions Inc. | 410.7 m | — | -59.0% | -8.9% | −0.7% | +35% / −53% |
| IMXIInternational Money Express, Inc. | 220.5 m | 11.7 | 11.9% | 3.4% | −7.7% | −52% / −65% |
| AMWLAmerican Well Corporation | 207.5 m | — | -24.5% | -27.0% | −2.0% | +186% / −52% |
| OPRXOptimizeRx Corporation | 163.3 m | 36.9 | 3.7% | 4.7% | +18.8% | −43% / −9% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for MMS from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (USD)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | 43.27 Total return -36% · Per year -36% | 76.47 Total return 12% · Per year 12% | 115.14 Total return 69% · Per year 69% |
| 3 years | 42.81 Total return -34% · Per year -13% | 85.05 Total return 29% · Per year 9% | 140.48 Total return 111% · Per year 28% |
| 5 years | 42.35 Total return -31% · Per year -7% | 94.58 Total return 48% · Per year 8% | 171.39 Total return 163% · Per year 21% |
- Exit P/E± 21.26
- Net margin± 14.88
- Annual revenue growth± 12.11
- Annual dilution± 1.25
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
In brief
Maximus is a provider of tech-enabled services to government agencies, with revenue of 5431,276 million USD in fiscal 2025 and a dominant share from U.S. federal customers. The company has agreed to acquire Agile Defense for 660 million USD, a move meant to extend its work in defense and national security 13.
SWOT
Strengths
- The company has long experience in government programs, a secure technology platform and a strong position in clinical assessments 1.
- Operating cash flow and access to a large credit line give financial flexibility 1.
- A large backlog and a long average contract life help planning over the medium term 1.
Weaknesses
Opportunities
Risks
- Client concentrationhigh
A small number of contracts and agencies generate a large share of revenue, and losing them would have a significant effect 1.
- Funding delayshigh
Contracts are not always fully funded at inception, and government shutdowns can delay payments 1.
- Competitive biddingmedium
New contracts depend on winning bids, and protests can delay awards 1.
- Acquisition and integrationmedium
Integrating Agile Defense could prove more costly or slower than expected, and closing depends on approvals 3.
- Cost of debtlow
Interest tied to SOFR and existing borrowings can raise financing costs 1.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
What to watch
- Completion of the Agile Defense acquisition and closing conditionsQ1 2027
- Development of federal segment revenue and backlognext 10-K
- Impact of the OBBBA law on state programs2027
- Results of major bids and contract recompetes2027
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
The business
Maximus, a Virginia corporation founded in 1975, provides government technology services: running large health eligibility and enrollment programs, clinical services such as veterans' assessments, and technology for agency modernization 1. Revenue in fiscal 2025 was 5431,276 million USD, with organic growth of 3,9% 1.
Clients are mainly U.S. federal and state agencies, with operations also in the U.K., Canada and the Middle East 1. The ten largest contracts produced about 60% of revenue, a high concentration of client relationships 1.
Contracts are usually won through competitive bidding (RFP) and paid on performance, cost-plus, fixed price or time-and-materials terms, each with different risk and margin 1. Backlog at September 30, 2025 was about 15,3 billion USD 1.
Segments
U.S. Federal Services
The federal segment generated 56% of revenue in fiscal 2025 and covers program operations, veterans' clinical services and technology solutions for federal agencies 1. Revenue growth was supported by clinical programs and disaster support for FEMA 1.
Market context
The market is served by a relatively small number of government agencies, which limits the number of potential customers 1. Rising demand for services and constrained government budgets define the industry, while technology modernization is a growing priority 1.
Funding delays and possible government shutdowns can affect payment and contract timing 1. Federal efficiency efforts could create procurement opportunities but also more intense competition 1.
Trends
- Technology modernizationtailwind
Governments are prioritizing modernization, and demand for automation, AI and cloud supports service expansion 1. The Agile Defense deal could extend this direction into defense 3.
- Government efficiency pushheadwind
Federal efficiency efforts may curtail or reshape existing contracts and increase competition 1. The effect depends on policy direction, which can change with an administration.
- Demand for clinical servicestailwind
Veterans' medical assessment volumes rose, driven partly by the Honoring our Pact Act 1. This demand could continue if programs stay funded.
- Medicaid and OBBBA changesmixed
The OBBBA requires changes to the funding of some state programs, and their timing and scale remain uncertain 1. Effects on the state segment could be negative or mixed.
Competitive position
In the federal segment, competitors include General Dynamics Information Technology, Deloitte, Leidos, IBM, Accenture and Booz Allen Hamilton 1. In the state segment, competition comes from government insourced operations as well as Conduent, TTEC and Acentra Health 1.
Outside the U.S., competitors include Atos, Capita, Serco and Ingeus 1. Beyond large companies, competition also comes from specialized regional providers and nonprofit organizations 1.
- LeidosLDOS
Competitor in the federal segment for technology and government support services 1.
- Booz Allen HamiltonBAH
Competitor in the federal segment, active in consulting and technology for U.S. agencies 1.
- ConduentCNDT
Competitor in the state segment for processing and support of social programs 1.
- TTECTTEC
Competitor in the state segment for contact centers and public client services 1.
Links, dependencies and risks
Who the company is tied to, from its own SEC filings (customers, suppliers, production, partners, competitors, countries, regulation), from the 5 %+ holders' statements (13D/13G) and from what other companies say about it. Click a node for its evidence; on a listed company the graph moves to it.
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News & filings
In the press
- Maximus’ (MMS) Tech Capabilities and Beaten-Down Valuation Point to M&A UpsideYahoo Finance — News · 22 Sept 2026 · EN
The latest news item in our archive is from 22 Sept 2026; the newest SEC filing is from 20 Oct 2026. The press archive comes from the RSS feeds we follow and does not necessarily cover the latest event — the filings alongside do.
SEC filings
- Current report20 Oct 2026Material agreement · Results of operations · Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
- Quarterly report06 Aug 2026
- Current report06 Aug 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report28 May 2026Material agreement · Creation of a direct financial obligation · Financial statements and exhibits
- Quarterly report07 May 2026
- Current report07 May 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report11 Mar 2026Shareholder vote
- Quarterly report05 Feb 2026
- Current report05 Feb 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Proxy statement22 Jan 2026
Sources
- [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2025-09-30 · SEC / Maximus, Inc. · 20 Nov 2025
- [2] Form 10-Q, quarter ended 2026-06-30 · SEC / Maximus, Inc. · 06 Aug 2026
- [3] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / Maximus, Inc. · 20 Oct 2026
Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.