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olivLaw · US equity research

The Boston Beer Company, Inc. SAM

Malt Beverages · SIC 2082 · Vertical: Food products (SIC 208x)

228.32USD+5.97% · 1 dayClose 04 Nov 2026

The Boston Beer Company makes and sells alcohol beverages mainly in the United States, under brands such as Twisted Tea, Truly Hard Seltzer, Samuel Adams and Sun Cruiser. It matters now because sales are falling in a traditional beer market in decline while the Beyond beer segment grows, with the company holding a 20% share of that category. For 2026 it has updated its guidance, and third-quarter data showed volume pressure and higher freight costs.

At the close of 04 Nov 2026, The Boston Beer Company, Inc. (SAM) stock was 228.32 USD (+5.97% on the day), with beta 0.23, 52-week range 161.08–260.05 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q3 2026): revenue of 520.1 m USD (−3.2% YoY), net income of 43.2 m USD (−6.5% YoY), diluted EPS 4.21 USD.

Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.

Market cap
unavailable
P/E (TTM)
unavailable
Diluted EPS TTM -6.84 · TTM to 26 Sept 2026
E/P (TTM)
-2.99%
TTM to 26 Sept 2026
Dividend yield
unavailable
Beta (2y)
0.23
Volatility (1y) 39%
52-week range
161.08260.05

Price history

Loading chart…

Technical reading

RSI (14)
79.9
overbought (≥ 70)
Bollinger (20, 2)
159.51 – 224.78
above the upper band · %B 1.05 · band width 34.0%
SMA 50 / 200
179.10 / 199.13
mixed trend
MACD (12, 26, 9)
11.68 / 8.10
MACD above signal

Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).

Performance

CompanyS&P 500vs S&P 500Vertical median
1 month+36.2%−1.1%+37.3 pp—
3 months+23.6%−0.5%+24.0 pp—
6 months+10.6%+4.4%+6.2 pp—
Year to date+17.0%+12.3%+4.7 pp—
1 year+11.5%+13.5%−2.1 pp+7.7%
3 years−32.5%+76.4%−108.9 pp−12.9%
5 years−54.6%+63.7%−118.3 pp—
Max drawdown (1y)
−38.1%
09 Apr 2026 → 04 Jun 2026
Max drawdown (5y)
−70.1%
20 Dec 2021 → 04 Jun 2026
Compound annual growth (5y)
−14.6%
S&P 500 +10.4%

Price returns, dividends excluded.

Quarterly results

Latest quarter: Q3 2026 · 26 Sept 2026

Revenue
520.1 m USD
−3.2% YoY
Net income
43.2 m USD
−6.5% YoY
Diluted EPS
4.21
−0.9% YoY
net / operating
8.3% / 10.8%

Quarterly margins

Quarterly statements · USD

Fiscal yearQ4 '24Q1 '25Q2 '25Q3 '25Q4 '25Q1 '26Q2 '26Q3 '26
Revenue402.3 m453.9 m587.9 m537.5 m385.7 m433.9 m568.3 m520.1 m
Cost of revenue241.6 m234.6 m295.4 m264.4 m218.0 m220.0 m282.0 m251.0 m
Gross profit160.7 m219.3 m292.5 m273.1 m167.7 m214.0 m286.4 m269.1 m
Operating income-56.0 m33.8 m82.1 m62.0 m-33.0 m-190.5 m70.8 m56.3 m
Depreciation & amortisation23.1 m22.8 m22.4 m ≈22.5 m ≈22.7 m21.6 m21.0 m ≈20.9 m ≈
Pre-tax income-53.6 m35.8 m84.1 m64.2 m-30.6 m-188.9 m72.3 m58.9 m
Income tax-14.9 m11.4 m23.6 m18.0 m-8.1 m-43.7 m20.8 m15.7 m
Net income-38.8 m24.4 m60.4 m46.2 m-22.5 m-145.3 m51.6 m43.2 m
Diluted EPS-3.38 ≈2.165.454.25-2.13 ≈-13.884.964.21
Operating cash flow41.9 m1.9 m126.5 m ≈101.8 m ≈39.9 m-20.4 m138.0 m ≈76.6 m ≈
Capex23.5 m9.9 m14.2 m ≈12.6 m ≈17.8 m12.3 m10.5 m ≈8.4 m ≈
Share repurchases62.7 m49.4 m52.2 m ≈50.8 m ≈50.0 m23.3 m26.6 m ≈25.4 m ≈

≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)

E/P over time

E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.

Fiscal years

Fiscal year20182019202020212022202320242025
Revenue995.6 m1.2 bn1.7 bn2.1 bn2.1 bn2.0 bn2.0 bn2.0 bn
Revenue YoY+15.4%+25.5%+38.9%+18.5%+1.6%−3.9%+0.2%−2.4%
Net income92.7 m110.0 m192.0 m14.6 m67.3 m76.3 m59.7 m108.5 m
Net income YoY−6.4%+18.8%+74.4%−92.4%+362.2%+13.4%−21.7%+81.7%
Diluted EPS7.829.1615.531.175.446.215.069.89
Diluted EPS YoY−3.3%+17.1%+69.5%−92.5%+365.0%+14.2%−18.5%+95.5%
net %9.3%8.8%11.1%0.7%3.2%3.8%3.0%5.5%
Free cash flow108.0 m85.0 m113.4 m-91.6 m109.4 m201.1 m172.6 m215.6 m

Reported results vs expectations

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Balance sheet & financial health

Fiscal year 2025 · 27 Dec 2025

Cash
223.4 m USD
Financial debt
unavailable USD
Net debt
unavailable USD
Equity
846.3 m USD
Total assets
1.2 bn USD
Debt / equity
unavailable
Current ratio
1.65x
ROE
12.3%
ROA
8.9%
FCF margin
11.0%

Financial statements (source on every figure)

Revenue and net income (USD)

Margins

Income statement · USD

Revenue
2023
2.0 bn
2024
2.0 bn
2025
2.0 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified

Cost of revenue
2023
1.2 bn
2024
1.1 bn
2025
1.0 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified

Gross profit
2023
852.4 m
2024
893.7 m
2025
952.6 m

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified

Operating income
2023
100.0 m
2024
76.0 m
2025
144.9 m

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified

Depreciation & amortisation
2023
88.1 m
2024
94.0 m
2025
90.4 m

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified

EBITDA
2023
188.1 m ≈
2024
170.0 m ≈
2025
235.3 m ≈

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026derived

Pre-tax income
2023
109.6 m
2024
87.6 m
2025
153.5 m

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified

Income tax
2023
33.3 m
2024
27.9 m
2025
45.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified

Net income
2023
76.3 m
2024
59.7 m
2025
108.5 m

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified

Diluted EPS
2023
6.21
2024
5.06
2025
9.89

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified

Weighted average diluted shares
2023
12.3 m
2024
11.8 m
2025
10.9 m

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified

Balance sheet · USD

Cash
2023
298.5 m
2024
211.8 m
2025
223.4 m

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified

Receivables
2023
67.0 m
2024
61.4 m
2025
57.1 m

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified

Inventories
2023
115.8 m
2024
117.2 m
2025
92.5 m

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified

Current assets
2023
503.5 m
2024
417.3 m
2025
417.6 m

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified

Property, plant & equipment, net
2023
642.5 m
2024
616.2 m
2025
578.1 m

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified

Goodwill
2023
112.5 m
2024
112.5 m
2025
112.5 m

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified

Intangibles (excl. goodwill)
2023
59.6 m
2024
16.4 m
2025
14.8 m

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified

Total assets
2023
1.4 bn
2024
1.3 bn
2025
1.2 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified

Accounts payable
2023
87.2 m
2024
87.3 m
2025
95.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified

Current liabilities
2023
223.3 m
2024
231.6 m
2025
252.5 m

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified

Total liabilities
2023
352.1 m
2024
333.8 m
2025
347.3 m

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified

Equity
2023
1.1 bn †
2024
916.2 m †
2025
846.3 m †

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified

Cash flow · USD

Operating cash flow
2023
265.2 m
2024
248.9 m
2025
270.2 m

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified

Capex
2023
64.1 m
2024
76.3 m
2025
54.6 m

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified

Free cash flow
2023
201.1 m ≈
2024
172.6 m ≈
2025
215.6 m ≈

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026derived

Investing cash flow
2023
-62.4 m
2024
-96.3 m
2025
-54.5 m

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified

Financing cash flow
2023
-84.8 m
2024
-239.3 m
2025
-204.1 m

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified

Share repurchases
2023
92.9 m
2024
238.6 m
2025
202.4 m

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified

Computed indicators

Growth

Revenue growth (YoY)
-2.4%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Revenue CAGR 3Y
-2.0%
computed by olivLawFY 2022 → FY 2025
Revenue CAGR 5Y
2.5%
computed by olivLawFY 2020 → FY 2025
EBIT growth (YoY)
90.7%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Net income growth (YoY)
81.7%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Net income CAGR 3Y
17.3%
computed by olivLawFY 2022 → FY 2025
Net income CAGR 5Y
-10.8%
computed by olivLawFY 2020 → FY 2025
EPS growth (YoY)
95.5%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
EPS CAGR 3Y
22.0%
computed by olivLawFY 2022 → FY 2025
EPS CAGR 5Y
-8.6%
computed by olivLawFY 2020 → FY 2025
FCF growth (YoY)
24.9%
computed by olivLawFY 2025

Profitability

Gross margin
49.1%
computed by olivLawTTM to 26 Sept 2026
EBITDA margin
-0.5%
computed by olivLawTTM to 26 Sept 2026
EBIT margin
-5.1%
computed by olivLawTTM to 26 Sept 2026
Net margin
-3.8%
computed by olivLawTTM to 26 Sept 2026
FCF margin
9.7%
computed by olivLawTTM to 26 Sept 2026

Returns

ROE
-8.9%
computed by olivLawTTM to 26 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 26 Sept 2026
ROA
-5.9%
computed by olivLawTTM to 26 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 26 Sept 2026
ROIC
unavailable
input data missing
ROCE
-12.3%
computed by olivLawTTM to 26 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 26 Sept 2026
Payout ratio (EPS)
unavailable
input data missing
Payout ratio (FCF)
unavailable
input data missing

Balance sheet

Net debt
unavailable
input data missing
Net debt / EBITDA
unavailable
input data missing
Debt / equity
unavailable
input data missing
Interest coverage
unavailable
input data missing

Liquidity

Current ratio
1.1x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 26 Sept 2026
Quick ratio
0.9x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 26 Sept 2026
Cash ratio
0.7x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 26 Sept 2026

Cash

Operating cash flow
234.1 m USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 26 Sept 2026
Capital expenditure
49.1 m USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 26 Sept 2026
Free cash flow
185.1 m USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 26 Sept 2026
FCF conversion
unavailable
insufficient data
Cash conversion
unavailable
insufficient data

Efficiency

Days sales outstanding
16 days
computed by olivLawTTM to 26 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 26 Sept 2026
Days inventory outstanding
38 days
computed by olivLawTTM to 26 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 26 Sept 2026
Days payables outstanding
39 days
computed by olivLawTTM to 26 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 26 Sept 2026
Cash conversion cycle
14 days
computed by olivLawTTM to 26 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 26 Sept 2026

Market and valuation

Market capitalisation
unavailable
input data missing
Enterprise value
unavailable
input data missing
Market cap / net income TTM
unavailable
input data missing
P/E (TTM)
unavailable
insufficient data
Earnings yield
-3.0%
computed by olivLawTTM to 26 Sept 2026
P/B
unavailable
input data missing
P/S
unavailable
input data missing
EV/EBITDA
unavailable
input data missing
EV/EBIT
unavailable
input data missing
EV/Sales
unavailable
input data missing
P/FCF
unavailable
input data missing
FCF yield
unavailable
input data missing
Dividend yield
unavailable
no dividend in the structured statements; a missing line is not a confirmed zero
Shareholder yield (distributions)
unavailable
input data missing

1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.

Valuation

olivLaw classification

Insufficient data
What is missing
  • indicators available: 4 of at least 6
  • score weight coverage: 27.1% of at least 60%
  • valuation methods computed: 0 of at least 1

A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.

Closing price

228.32 USD

04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series

Market cap: unavailable

Key indicators

Market capitalisation
unavailable
input data missing
P/E (TTM)
unavailable
insufficient data
P/B
unavailable
input data missing
EV/EBITDA
unavailable
input data missing
ROE
-8.9%
computed by olivLawTTM to 26 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 26 Sept 2026
Net margin
-3.8%
computed by olivLawTTM to 26 Sept 2026
Revenue growth (YoY)
-2.4%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Dividend yield
unavailable
no dividend in the structured statements; a missing line is not a confirmed zero

Coverage and freshness

29/37 reporting lines present
Latest full fiscal year: 2025
Latest reported period: 26 Sept 2026
Latest balance sheet date: 26 Sept 2026
Source: SEC (XBRL)published 22 Oct 2026
verified 2245derived 151

Score by group

27% · Insufficient data

Estimated value range

unavailable — no valuation method could be computed

Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.

Valuation methods

  • DCF (discounted cash flow)unavailable · input data missing
  • Peers: EV/EBITDAunavailable · net debt missing: EV cannot be bridged to equity (missing debt is not zero)
  • Peers: P/Eunavailable · the base of the ratio is not positive
  • Dividend discount (DDM)unavailable · the company pays no dividend: a dividend model needs an explicit initiation assumption

no valuation method could be computed

Multiple comparisons use the SIC vertical: Food products (SIC 208x)

Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.

Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)

Risk-free rate
4.3%
Equity risk premium
5.0%
Beta (default)
1.00
Cost of equity
9.3%
Terminal growth
2.5%

Factor scorecard

Insufficient data

Minimum-evidence gate: indicators available: 4 of at least 6; score weight coverage: 27.1% of at least 60%; valuation methods computed: 0 of at least 1

FactorValueScoreWeight used
ROIC · Qualityunavailableunavailable—
Net margin · Quality-3.8%33 (vs peers)23%
FCF conversion · Qualityunavailableunavailable—
Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth-2.0%0 (on a fixed band)31%
EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth22.0%100 (on a fixed band)31%
Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheetunavailableunavailable—
Interest coverage · Balance sheetunavailableunavailable—
Current ratio · Balance sheet1.1x28 (on a fixed band)15%
P/E (TTM) · Valuationunavailableunavailable—
EV/EBITDA · Valuationunavailableunavailable—
FCF yield · Valuationunavailableunavailable—
Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returnsunavailableunavailable—
Payout ratio (FCF) · Returnsunavailableunavailable—

Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.

Score groups

  • Balance sheet· partial28/100 · 1/3 factors with a value
  • Growth50/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
  • Quality· partial33/100 · 1/3 factors with a value
  • Returns· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
  • Valuation· partialunavailable · 0/3 factors with a value

A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.

Memo

THE BOSTON BEER COMPANY, INC. (SAM). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2026-09-26.

Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 2.0 bn USD in 2025; YoY growth -2.4%; net margin -3.8%; ROE -8.9%.

Valuation cannot be computed from the available data.

Insufficient data for a verdict (indicators available: 4 of at least 6; score weight coverage: 27.1% of at least 60%; valuation methods computed: 0 of at least 1).

Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.

What supports the thesis

  • EPS CAGR 3Y: 22.0%

What contradicts it

  • Revenue CAGR 3Y: -2.0%
  • Current ratio: 1.1x

Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): ROIC, FCF conversion, Net debt / EBITDA, Interest coverage, P/E (TTM), EV/EBITDA, FCF yield, Shareholder yield (distributions), Payout ratio (FCF).

Versus the vertical median

Food products (SIC 208x) · same industry group (3-digit SIC) · compared with 31 companies

Multiples and returns vs the median

P/E
—
vertical median 28.2x
EV/EBITDA
—
vertical median 23.8x
P/S
—
vertical median 2.5x
P/B
—
vertical median 3.7x
ROE
-8.9%
vertical median 12.9%
below median (−168.9%)
Net margin
-3.8%
vertical median 6.6%
below median (−158.1%)
EBIT margin
-5.1%
vertical median 11.1%
below median (−145.6%)
Revenue YoY
-2.4%
vertical median 1.9%
below median (−227.3%)
Net debt/EBITDA
—
vertical median 1.9x
Dividend yield
—
vertical median 2.7%

Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)

Companies in the vertical

Market capP/EROENet marginRevenue YoY1A / 3A
KOCoca Cola Co412.1 bn28.242.6%28.7%+1.9%+31% / +64%
DEODIAGEO plc237.6 bn92.424.0%9.1%+0.3%+7% / −30%
PEPPepsico Inc194.1 bn18.750.1%10.8%+2.3%−4% / −15%
BUDAnheuser-Busch InBev SA150.4 bn24.78.3%11.5%−0.7%+36% / +33%
KDPKeurig Dr Pepper Inc.50.1 bn37.25.7%7.1%+8.2%+32% / +17%
MNSTMonster Beverage Corp47.8 bn22.425.7%23.1%+10.7%+30% / +77%
BF-ABrown Forman Corp14.9 bn20.318.1%18.4%−1.2%+10% / −48%
CELHCelsius Holdings, Inc.7.8 bn104.310.5%4.2%+85.5%−25% / −38%
PRMBPrimo Brands Corp7.6 bn79.43.2%1.5%+29.3%+34% / +46%
COCOThe Vita Coco Company, Inc.3.7 bn32.932.0%15.7%+18.2%+23% / +133%
FIZZNational Beverage Corp.3.5 bn20.240.1%14.8%−1.7%+11% / −21%
COKECoca-Cola Consolidated, Inc.1.5 bn2.590.0%7.5%+4.8%+25% / +178%
WESTWestrock Coffee Company1.0 bn——-4.9%+39.8%+138% / +13%
BUDABuda Juice, Inc.83.2 m34.519.3%17.1%+11.8%unavailable / unavailable
SRXHSRX Global Inc.18.0 m—-70.8%-254.8%−81.3%−96% / −100%
REEDReed's, Inc.12.0 m—-14,800.0%-63.5%−10.2%−80% / −92%
WVVIWillamette Valley Vineyards, Inc.8.3 m—-3.3%-5.9%−6.5%−37% / −68%
YHCLQR House Inc.2.9 m0.2-88.2%-1,589.2%−37.4%−98% / −100%
IPSTIp Strategy Holdings, Inc.2.3 m—-2,713.2%-2,064.0%+20.4%−98% / unavailable
EDVAEndovia Health Sciences, Inc.1.2 m——-53,856.5%−90.9%−96% / −100%
BRCCBRC Inc.903.4 k—-14.2%-1.5%+1.7%−23% / −77%
IBGInnovation Beverage Group Limited593.4 k——-223.4%−5.1%−94% / unavailable
CCEPCOCA-COLA EUROPACIFIC PARTNERS plc——23.8%9.3%+2.3%+26% / +91%
ABEVAmbev S.A.——16.6%17.6%−1.4%+9% / +1%
STZConstellation Brands, Inc.——23.9%20.9%−10.5%+7% / −40%

1- and 3-year price returns: for SAM from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.

olivLaw engine forecast

The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.

The engine has no published run for this company yet.

Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)

Illustrative scenarios

Scenarios are not available. input data missing

AI analysis

AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

In brief

The Boston Beer Company makes and sells alcohol beverages mainly in the United States, under brands such as Twisted Tea, Truly Hard Seltzer, Samuel Adams and Sun Cruiser. It matters now because sales are falling in a traditional beer market in decline while the Beyond beer segment grows, with the company holding a 20% share of that category 1. For 2026 it has updated its guidance, and third-quarter data showed volume pressure and higher freight costs.

SWOT

Strengths

  • The company has strong brands and leading positions in several categories, such as Twisted Tea and Angry Orchard 1.
  • Its sales force is considered one of the largest in the industry, supporting distributor and retailer relationships 1.
  • The company has improved gross margin and had no debt at the end of the third quarter of 2026 23.

Weaknesses

  • Volumes are falling for several important brands, and depletions have declined in recent years 12.
  • The company depends on independent distributors and third-party producers, which limits its control over distribution and production 1.
  • Freight and promotion costs have risen, and profitability depends on operating efficiency 2.

Opportunities

  • The Beyond beer category could keep growing and gain share from traditional beer 1.
  • Sun Cruiser and other new products could offset declines in other brands if they keep growing 12.
  • The supply chain transformation programme could reduce costs and inventory if its results hold 13.

Threats

  • Competition from large brewers and from big companies' non-alcoholic beverages could pressure prices 1.
  • Shifting attitudes toward alcohol and the growth of non-alcoholic alternatives could reduce demand 1.
  • A supplier dispute has produced a large judgment expense, and later payments are uncertain 2.

Risks

  • Supplier litigationhigh

    The company has recorded expenses from a supplier dispute and could make additional payments depending on appeal outcomes 23. The company denies breaching the contract, but the timing and amount of any payment are not known.

  • Dependence on distributorshigh

    Most sales go through independent distributors, which can terminate agreements on short notice and may be influenced by large producers 1. If these relationships change, distribution could be affected.

  • Declining demand for beer and alcoholmedium

    Alcohol consumption and social attitudes toward it are changing, and volumes could continue to fall 1. Legal cannabis and hemp-based beverages could compete further with the company's products 1.

  • Freight and raw material costsmedium

    Transport, fuel and aluminium costs have increased, and tariffs could raise production costs more than estimated 23.

  • Failure or delay of new productslow

    New product launches do not guarantee long-term volume growth, and falling sales of existing brands could affect profitability 1.

Investment thesis

What would need to be true (bull case)

  • If Sun Cruiser and other Beyond beer products keep growing, the company could offset declines in other brands and sustain a high gross margin 12.
  • The supply chain transformation and efficiency gains could support profitability even with lower volumes 23.
  • A debt-free balance sheet and cash reserves could allow investment in brands and share repurchases if market conditions improve 3.

What would break the thesis

  • If volume declines in beer and in Twisted Tea and Truly continue, revenue and profit could remain under pressure 12.
  • The supplier litigation could produce large additional payments, affecting results and investment capacity 23.
  • Competition from large brewers and non-alcoholic beverage companies could force price cuts or higher promotion spending 1.

What to watch

  • Fourth-quarter results and delivery against 2026 guidance on depletions, gross margin and non-GAAP EPSQ4 2026
  • Developments in the supplier litigation and any payments made2027
  • Volume trends of Sun Cruiser and Truly Hard Seltzer in the market2027
  • Annual figures on tariff and freight costs in the next 10-Knext 10-K

Products, market & competition

AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

The business

The business began as a craft brewer in 1984 and expanded through internally developed brands such as Twisted Tea (a flavored malt beverage), Truly Hard Seltzer and Sun Cruiser (a spirits RTD launched in 2024) 1. The company describes itself as the second largest supplier in Beyond beer, with a 20% share 1. Its stated goal is to grow share in the US beer market through innovation and investment in promotion and its sales force 1.

Segments

Beyond beer (flavored malt, hard seltzer, cider, spirits RTD)

This segment accounted for about 86% of the company's volume in 2025 and includes Twisted Tea, Truly Hard Seltzer, Angry Orchard and Sun Cruiser 1. The Beyond beer market grew 4.4% in 2025 to 10.7 billion USD, while hard seltzer declined about 4.5% 1. Sun Cruiser grew quickly to become the fifth largest spirits RTD brand, which could offset declines elsewhere 1.

Market context

Alcohol consumption per person is falling and younger drinkers are increasingly embracing moderation or abstinence, which could reduce industry volumes 1. At the same time, competition from non-alcoholic beverages by large companies such as Coke and Pepsi is intensifying 1.

Trends

  • Decline in traditional beer consumptionheadwind

    The beer market has declined over the last ten years, and the decline accelerated in 2025 to a volume drop of about 4% 1. If the trend continues, the company's volumes could stay under pressure.

  • Growth in the Beyond beer categorytailwind

    The Beyond beer category grew 4.4% in 2025 and, according to the company, has the potential to gain share from traditional beer 1. The spirits RTD category grew about 29% in dollars in 2025, which supports Sun Cruiser 1.

  • Pressure from freight and tariff costsheadwind

    In the third quarter of 2026, advertising, promotional and selling expenses stayed flat, but freight costs rose 9.5 million USD and tariffs affected cost of goods 2. Guidance for 2026 includes tariff costs of 18 to 22 million USD 3.

  • Improving gross marginmixed

    Gross margin rose in the third quarter of 2026, helped by product mix, pricing and procurement savings 23. If this continues, it could support profitability even with lower volumes.

Competitive position

The company competes with large brewers such as AB InBev and Molson Coors, and with importers such as Constellation Brands and Heineken, which have greater financial resources and distribution networks 1. In Beyond beer categories, competition also comes from non-alcoholic beverages launched by Coca-Cola, PepsiCo, Monster and Arizona 1.

The market is fragmented, with many regional and local competitors, especially in cider and hard seltzer 1. To protect its position, the company could rely on innovation, its sales force and distributor relationships 1.

  • AB InBev

    The largest brewer in the United States, active in beer, flavored malt beverages, hard seltzer and RTDs 1.

  • Molson CoorsTAP

    The second largest brewer in the United States, present in the same Beyond beer and traditional beer spectrum 1.

  • Constellation BrandsSTZ

    Holds US distribution rights for Modelo Especial and Corona, with large financial resources 1.

  • Heineken

    International beer producer competing aggressively in the US market with imported products 1.

News & filings

In the press

No news in our archive over the last 180 days.

SEC filings

Sources

  1. [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2025-12-27 · SEC / The Boston Beer Company, Inc. · 24 Feb 2026
  2. [2] Form 10-Q, quarter ended 2026-09-26 · SEC / The Boston Beer Company, Inc. · 22 Oct 2026
  3. [3] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / The Boston Beer Company, Inc. · 22 Oct 2026

Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.