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olivLaw · US equity research

Arcutis Biotherapeutics, Inc. ARQT

Pharmaceutical Preparations · SIC 2834 · Vertical: Pharmaceutical Preparations (SIC 2834)

27.00USD−20.70% · 1 dayClose 05 Nov 2026

Arcutis Biotherapeutics is a commercial-stage biopharmaceutical company focused on topical treatments for immune-mediated skin diseases, led by ZORYVE, a once-daily roflumilast formulation. It matters now because quarterly sales grew sharply in the second quarter of 2026 and full-year net product sales guidance was raised to between 525 and 540 million dollars.

The AI analysis may be outdated: new filings came after its sources (see the «AI analysis» section).

At the close of 05 Nov 2026, Arcutis Biotherapeutics, Inc. (ARQT) stock was 27.00 USD (−20.70% on the day), with market capitalisation 3.4 bn USD, P/E 125.2 on diluted EPS of 0.22 USD over the last 12 months, beta 1.40, 52-week range 19.50–34.05 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q3 2026): revenue of 143.9 m USD (+45.1% YoY), net income of 8.8 m USD (+18.8% YoY), diluted EPS 0.06 USD.

Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.

Market cap
3.4 bn USD
shares as of 30 Oct 2026
P/E (TTM)
125.2
Diluted EPS TTM 0.22 · TTM to 30 Sept 2026
E/P (TTM)
0.80%
TTM to 30 Sept 2026
Dividend yield
unavailable
Beta (2y)
1.40
Volatility (1y) 57%
52-week range
19.5034.05

Price history

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Technical reading

RSI (14)
42.1
weak (30–45)
Bollinger (20, 2)
25.37 – 35.28
in the lower half of the band · %B 0.16 · band width 32.7%
SMA 50 / 200
27.15 / 25.35
mixed trend
MACD (12, 26, 9)
1.19 / 1.48
MACD below signal

Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).

Performance

CompanyS&P 500vs S&P 500Vertical median
1 month+12.9%−5.9%+18.8 pp—
3 months+2.2%−4.6%+6.8 pp—
6 months+30.7%+0.2%+30.5 pp—
Year to date−7.0%+7.4%−14.4 pp—
1 year+10.7%+8.2%+2.5 pp−11.5%
3 years+1,053.8%+68.4%+985.4 pp+38.9%
5 years+22.4%+56.5%−34.1 pp—
Max drawdown (1y)
−37.5%
05 Dec 2025 → 19 May 2026
Max drawdown (5y)
−93.2%
31 Aug 2022 → 30 Nov 2023
Compound annual growth (5y)
+4.1%
S&P 500 +9.4%

Price returns, dividends excluded.

Quarterly results

Latest quarter: Q3 2026 · 30 Sept 2026

Revenue
143.9 m USD
+45.1% YoY
Net income
8.8 m USD
+18.8% YoY
Diluted EPS
0.06
0.0% YoY
net / operating
6.1% / 6.6%

Quarterly margins

Quarterly statements · USD

Fiscal yearQ4 '24Q1 '25Q2 '25Q3 '25Q4 '25Q1 '26Q2 '26Q3 '26
Revenue71.4 m65.8 m81.5 m99.2 m129.5 m105.4 m129.9 m143.9 m
Cost of revenue6.9 m8.8 m7.5 m8.7 m11.7 m9.8 m10.9 m12.5 m
Research & development14.5 m17.5 m19.5 m19.6 m20.5 m30.6 m20.4 m22.4 m
SG&A57.6 m64.0 m69.2 m62.4 m79.0 m74.1 m82.1 m99.6 m
Operating income-7.6 m-24.5 m-14.6 m8.5 m18.4 m-9.1 m16.4 m9.4 m
Interest expense5.6 m3.0 m3.0 m3.1 m3.0 m4.4 m3.4 m3.0 m
Income tax323.0 k279.0 k342.0 k80.0 k470.0 k93.0 k136.0 k195.0 k
Net income-10.8 m-25.1 m-15.9 m7.4 m17.4 m-11.3 m15.0 m8.8 m
Diluted EPS-0.09 ≈-0.20-0.130.060.14 ≈-0.090.110.06
Operating cash flow-748.0 k-30.4 m324.0 k ≈-1.8 m ≈26.2 m2.2 m12.6 m ≈18.9 m ≈
Capex0608.0 k78.0 k ≈0 ≈00158.0 k ≈97.0 k ≈

≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)

E/P over time

E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.

Today's P/E sits at the 100 percentile of its own 2-quarter history (min 121.6, median 122.1, max 122.6; quarters with earnings only).

Fiscal years

Fiscal year20182019202020212022202320242025
Revenueunavailableunavailable003.7 m59.6 m196.5 m376.1 m
Revenue YoYunavailableunavailableunavailableunavailableunavailable+1,517.1%+229.7%+91.3%
Net income-19.3 m-42.0 m-135.7 m-206.4 m-311.5 m-262.1 m-140.0 m-16.1 m
Net income YoYunavailableunavailableunavailableunavailableunavailableunavailableunavailableunavailable
Diluted EPSunavailable-22.78-3.80-4.18-5.66-3.78-1.16-0.13
Diluted EPS YoYunavailableunavailableunavailableunavailableunavailableunavailableunavailableunavailable
net %unavailableunavailableunavailableunavailable-8,449.8%-439.8%-71.3%-4.3%
Free cash flow-14.1 m-43.1 m-113.4 m-175.6 m-258.0 m-247.5 m-112.3 m-6.3 m

Reported results vs expectations

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Balance sheet & financial health

Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025

Cash
42.9 m USD
Financial debt
109.0 m USD
Net debt
66.1 m USD
Equity
189.5 m USD
Total assets
433.0 m USD
Debt / equity
0.58x
Current ratio
3.17x
ROE
-9.3%
ROA
-4.1%
FCF margin
-1.7%

Financial statements (source on every figure)

Revenue and net income (USD)

Margins

Income statement · USD

Revenue
2023
59.6 m
2024
196.5 m
2025
376.1 m

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified

Cost of revenue
2023
5.0 m
2024
19.1 m
2025
36.7 m

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified

Gross profit
2023
54.6 m ≈
2024
177.4 m ≈
2025
339.4 m ≈

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026derived

Research & development
2023
110.6 m
2024
76.4 m
2025
77.1 m

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified

SG&A
2023
185.1 m
2024
229.4 m
2025
274.6 m

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified

Operating income
2023
-241.1 m
2024
-128.4 m
2025
-12.2 m

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified

Interest expense
2023
29.7 m
2024
27.2 m
2025
12.1 m

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified

Income tax
2023
3.1 m
2024
647.0 k
2025
1.2 m

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified

Net income
2023
-262.1 m
2024
-140.0 m
2025
-16.1 m

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified

Diluted EPS
2023
-3.78
2024
-1.16
2025
-0.13

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified

Weighted average diluted shares
2023
69.3 m
2024
121.0 m
2025
127.2 m

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified

Balance sheet · USD

Cash
2023
88.4 m
2024
71.3 m
2025
42.9 m

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified

Receivables
2023
25.8 m
2024
73.1 m
2025
146.2 m

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified

Inventories
2023
13.1 m
2024
14.5 m
2025
22.6 m

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified

Current assets
2023
330.4 m
2024
335.8 m
2025
411.2 m

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified

Property, plant & equipment, net
2023
1.5 m
2024
1.0 m
2025
1.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified

Intangibles (excl. goodwill)
2023
6.4 m
2024
9.5 m
2025
14.8 m

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified

Total assets
2023
341.4 m
2024
348.9 m
2025
433.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified

Accounts payable
2023
12.0 m
2024
14.2 m
2025
12.5 m

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified

Short-term debt
2023
0
2024
0
2025
1.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified

Long-term debt
2023
201.8 m
2024
107.2 m
2025
108.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified

Current liabilities
2023
46.7 m
2024
81.0 m
2025
129.8 m

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified

Total liabilities
2023
252.7 m
2024
191.3 m
2025
243.5 m

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified

Equity
2023
88.7 m †
2024
157.5 m †
2025
189.5 m †

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified

Cash flow · USD

Operating cash flow
2023
-247.1 m
2024
-112.2 m
2025
-5.6 m

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified

Capex
2023
428.0 k
2024
143.0 k
2025
686.0 k

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified

Free cash flow
2023
-247.5 m ≈
2024
-112.3 m ≈
2025
-6.3 m ≈

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026derived

Investing cash flow
2023
180.2 m
2024
28.8 m
2025
-30.3 m

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified

Financing cash flow
2023
101.3 m
2024
66.2 m
2025
7.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified

Computed indicators

Growth

Revenue growth (YoY)
91.3%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Revenue CAGR 3Y
367.3%
computed by olivLawFY 2022 → FY 2025
Revenue CAGR 5Y
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
EBIT growth (YoY)
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
Net income growth (YoY)
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
Net income CAGR 3Y
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
Net income CAGR 5Y
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
EPS growth (YoY)
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
EPS CAGR 3Y
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
EPS CAGR 5Y
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
FCF growth (YoY)
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive

Profitability

Gross margin
91.2%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
EBITDA margin
unavailable
input data missing
EBIT margin
6.9%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Net margin
5.9%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
FCF margin
11.7%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026

Returns

ROE
14.9%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
ROA
6.7%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
ROIC
11.0%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
ROCE
10.0%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Payout ratio (EPS)
unavailable
input data missing
Payout ratio (FCF)
unavailable
input data missing

Balance sheet

Net debt
76.0 m USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Net debt / EBITDA
unavailable
input data missing
Debt / equity
0.4x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Interest coverage
2.6x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026

Liquidity

Current ratio
2.9x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Quick ratio
2.7x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Cash ratio
0.2x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026

Cash

Operating cash flow
60.0 m USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Capital expenditure
255.0 k USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Free cash flow
59.7 m USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
FCF conversion
199.6%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Cash conversion
unavailable
input data missing

Efficiency

Days sales outstanding
103 days
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Days inventory outstanding
277 days
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Days payables outstanding
57 days
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Cash conversion cycle
322 days
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026

Market and valuation

Market capitalisation
3.4 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Enterprise value
3.5 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Market cap / net income TTM
114.2x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
P/E (TTM)
125.2x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Earnings yield
0.8%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
P/B
14.0x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
P/S
6.7x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
EV/EBITDA
unavailable
input data missing
EV/EBIT
99.3x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
EV/Sales
6.9x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
P/FCF
57.2x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
FCF yield
1.7%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Dividend yield
unavailable
no dividend in the structured statements; a missing line is not a confirmed zero
Shareholder yield (distributions)
unavailable
input data missing

1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.

Valuation

olivLaw classification

Neutral profile

Score: 52 / 100

A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.

Closing price

27.00 USD

05 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series

Market cap: 3.4 bn USD

Key indicators

Market capitalisation
3.4 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
P/E (TTM)
125.2x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
P/B
14.0x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
EV/EBITDA
unavailable
input data missing
ROE
14.9%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Net margin
5.9%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Revenue growth (YoY)
91.3%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Dividend yield
unavailable
no dividend in the structured statements; a missing line is not a confirmed zero

Coverage and freshness

29/37 reporting lines present
Latest full fiscal year: 2025
Latest reported period: 30 Sept 2026
Latest balance sheet date: 30 Sept 2026
Share count (cover of the latest filing), as of: 30 Oct 2026
Source: SEC (XBRL)published 04 Nov 2026
verified 954derived 69

Score by group

  • Valuation16
  • Growth100
  • Balance sheet50
  • Quality66

Estimated value range

Low
5.70
USD per share
Mid
7.63
USD per share
High
11.52
USD per share
Price: 27.00 USD
The price is above the range
Potential to the central value: -71.7% (value / price − 1)
Margin of safety: -254.0% (1 − price / value)
Agreement between methods: low · 2 methods used · 2 independent bases

The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 2.56 – 13.91 USD.

Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.

Method ranges (USD per share)

— — Mid · ▏ Price

Valuation methods

  • DCF (discounted cash flow)8.83 – 13.91 (Mid 10.80)
    WACC 9.2% · starting FCFF 71.2 m USD · terminal value share of EV 74%
    The WACC × g sensitivity gives the method's bounds; these are not probabilities.
    Reverse DCF: no growth between −30% and +40% justifies the price
  • Peers: EV/EBITDAunavailable · input data missing
  • Peers: P/E2.56 – 9.13 (Mid 4.45)
    16 companies used · median multiple 20.6x · quartiles 11.9x – 42.3x
    ABBV, ABT, ALNY, BMY, CRMD, GMAB, INVA, JNJ, LLY, NATR, PFE, REGN, RPRX, UTHR, VRTX, ZTS
  • Dividend discount (DDM)unavailable · the company pays no dividend: a dividend model needs an explicit initiation assumption
Multiple comparisons use the SIC vertical: Pharmaceutical Preparations (SIC 2834)

Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.

Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)

Risk-free rate
4.3%
Equity risk premium
5.0%
Beta (default)
1.00
Cost of equity
9.3%
Terminal growth
2.5%

Factor scorecard

Neutral profile · Score 52/100

FactorValueScoreWeight used
ROIC · Quality11.0%54 (vs peers)17%
Net margin · Quality5.9%52 (vs peers)10%
FCF conversion · Quality199.6%100 (on a fixed band)10%
Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth367.3%100 (on a fixed band)14%
EPS CAGR 3Y · Growthunavailableunavailable—
Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheetunavailableunavailable—
Interest coverage · Balance sheet2.6x16 (on a fixed band)10%
Current ratio · Balance sheet2.9x100 (on a fixed band)7%
P/E (TTM) · Valuation125.2x11 (vs peers)17%
EV/EBITDA · Valuationunavailableunavailable—
FCF yield · Valuation1.7%22 (on a fixed band)14%
Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returnsunavailableunavailable—
Payout ratio (FCF) · Returnsunavailableunavailable—

Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.

Score groups

  • Balance sheet50/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
  • Growth· partial100/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
  • Quality66/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
  • Returns· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
  • Valuation16/100 · 2/3 factors with a value

A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.

Memo

ARCUTIS BIOTHERAPEUTICS, INC. (ARQT). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2026-09-30.

Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 376.1 m USD in 2025; YoY growth 91.3%; net margin 5.9%; ROE 14.9%.

The estimated value range is 5.70–11.52 USD per share (median of 2 methods, agreement: low); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 7.63 USD, the price of 27.00 USD leaves a potential of -71.7% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of -254.0% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.

olivLaw score 52/100, methodological classification: neutral profile (score, margin of safety and method agreement together; not a judgement of the right price). Groups assessed only in part: growth, returns. Not investment advice.

Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.

What supports the thesis

  • FCF conversion: 199.6%
  • Revenue CAGR 3Y: 367.3%
  • Current ratio: 2.9x

What contradicts it

  • Interest coverage: 2.6x
  • P/E (TTM): 125.2x
  • FCF yield: 1.7%
  • The price is above the estimated value range
  • The valuation methods diverge

Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): EPS CAGR 3Y, Net debt / EBITDA, EV/EBITDA, Shareholder yield (distributions), Payout ratio (FCF).

Versus the vertical median

Pharmaceutical Preparations (SIC 2834) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 39 companies

Multiples and returns vs the median

P/E
125.2x
vertical median 34.9x
above median (+258.6%)
EV/EBITDA
—
vertical median 25.2x
P/S
6.7x
vertical median 7.6x
below median (−11.2%)
P/B
14.0x
vertical median 3.8x
above median (+263.8%)
ROE
14.9%
vertical median -6.2%
above median
Net margin
5.9%
vertical median 3.6%
above median (+61.5%)
EBIT margin
6.9%
vertical median -0.0%
above median
Revenue YoY
91.3%
vertical median 4.3%
above median (+2,016.5%)
Net debt/EBITDA
—
vertical median -0.1x
Dividend yield
—
vertical median 2.1%

Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)

Companies in the vertical

Market capP/EROENet marginRevenue YoY1A / 3A
LLYEli Lilly And Company1,283.9 bn44.386.1%31.9%+44.7%+27% / +131%
JNJJohnson & Johnson655.6 bn41.320.0%16.2%+6.0%+32% / +76%
ONCBeone Medicines Ltd.575.0 bn640.918.4%13.9%+40.2%+14% / +107%
ABBVAbbVie Inc.509.5 bn49.6—15.7%+8.6%+27% / +102%
MRKMerck & Co., Inc.362.2 bn151.25.1%3.6%+1.3%+40% / +43%
ABTAbbott Laboratories196.7 bn42.39.2%9.7%+5.7%−12% / +9%
PFEPfizer Inc170.3 bn42.64.4%6.3%−1.6%+16% / −2%
VRTXVertex Pharmaceuticals Inc137.5 bn34.920.8%30.7%+8.9%+25% / +53%
BMYBristol-Myers Squibb Company129.0 bn14.044.1%18.5%−0.2%+28% / +28%
TEVATeva Pharmaceutical Industries Limited48.8 bn97.36.6%3.6%+4.3%+55% / +325%
ZTSZoetis Inc.33.4 bn13.857.6%26.4%+2.3%−36% / −54%
ROIVRoivant Sciences Ltd.26.5 bn—-6.2%-3,535.0%−71.6%+76% / +283%
RPRXRoyalty Pharma plc26.2 bn47.76.9%25.7%+5.1%+69% / +150%
UTHRUnited Therapeutics Corporation24.1 bn21.319.1%38.6%+10.6%+16% / +136%
INSMInsmed Inc23.9 bn—-72.5%-39.9%+66.7%−48% / +335%
VTRSViatris Inc.21.7 bn—-24.3%-23.9%−3.0%+77% / +107%
ALNYAlnylam Pharmaceuticals, Inc.21.0 bn7.9126.6%52.8%+65.2%−65% / −7%
ARQTArcutis Biotherapeutics, Inc.3.4 bn125.214.9%5.9%+91.3%+11% / +1,054%
IDYAIDEAYA Biosciences, Inc.3.0 bn—-38.5%-1,149.6%+3,024.4%−14% / −3%
RCUSArcus Biosciences, Inc.2.5 bn—-114.1%-453.0%−4.3%−32% / +17%
STOKStoke Therapeutics, Inc.1.7 bn—-73.6%-862.1%+404.5%−16% / +588%
INVAInnoviva, Inc.1.4 bn9.717.0%44.1%+14.7%−11% / +39%
JANXJanux Therapeutics, Inc.982.6 m—-10.6%-428.7%−5.6%−53% / +84%
WVEWave Life Sciences, Inc.635.1 m—-80.0%-296.9%−60.5%−59% / −39%
NGNENeurogene Inc.513.3 m—-45.3%—−100.0%+22% / +85%

1- and 3-year price returns: for ARQT from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.

olivLaw engine forecast

The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.

The engine has no published run for this company yet.

Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)

Illustrative scenarios

Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.

Bear
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Base
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
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Estimated price (USD)

Estimated priceBearBaseBull
1 years
19.35
Total return -28% · Per year -28%
34.06
Total return 26% · Per year 26%
51.09
Total return 89% · Per year 89%
3 years
22.96
Total return -15% · Per year -5%
45.04
Total return 67% · Per year 19%
73.57
Total return 172% · Per year 40%
5 years
27.23
Total return 1% · Per year 0%
59.57
Total return 121% · Per year 17%
105.94
Total return 292% · Per year 31%
What moves the 3-year price the most
  • Exit P/E± 11.26
  • Net margin± 7.88
  • Annual revenue growth± 5.88
  • Annual dilution± 0.66

AI analysis

AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 05 Aug 2026; since then the company filed 8-K (04 Nov 2026 · results), 10-Q (04 Nov 2026).

In brief

Arcutis Biotherapeutics is a commercial-stage biopharmaceutical company focused on topical treatments for immune-mediated skin diseases, led by ZORYVE, a once-daily roflumilast formulation. It matters now because quarterly sales grew sharply in the second quarter of 2026 and full-year net product sales guidance was raised to between 525 and 540 million dollars 3.

SWOT

Strengths

  • The lead product has a favorable safety profile for chronic use and sales grew quickly in the latest quarter 13.
  • The company holds a patent position that provides long-term exclusivity for its cream and foam formulations 1.
  • The company maintained positive operating cash flow in the second quarter of 2026 3.

Weaknesses

  • The company has reported net losses every year since inception and carries a significant accumulated deficit 12.
  • The company depends on a single main product family, so revenue is sensitive to access or competitive changes 1.
  • The company has an outstanding loan and must meet financial covenants that limit its flexibility 12.

Opportunities

  • Expansion into primary care and pediatrics could increase the number of prescribers and treated patients 13.
  • Approvals for younger children and Phase 2 studies in vitiligo and hidradenitis suppurativa could open new markets 23.

Threats

  • Competition from other topical and systemic treatments could limit ZORYVE's market share 1.
  • Pricing pressure and insurer reimbursement decisions could reduce net revenue per patient 13.
  • Failed clinical studies or delayed regulatory decisions could postpone growth plans 12.

Risks

  • Dependence on one product familyhigh

    Sales are concentrated in the ZORYVE range, and any access, safety or competitive problem could affect financial results 13.

  • Losses and funding needsmedium

    The company has reported losses every year since inception and could need additional capital if cash flow does not cover expenses 12.

  • Loan covenantsmedium

    The SLR loan imposes operating and financial covenants that could limit the company's options if it needs new financing 12.

  • Access and pricinglow

    If insurers do not cover ZORYVE or cut reimbursement, sales growth could slow and gross-to-net deductions could rise 13.

Investment thesis

What would need to be true (bull case)

  • If sales growth from the second quarter of 2026 holds and full-year guidance is met, the company could reach a stronger financial position 3.
  • Pediatric label expansions and new access channels could open markets that were previously hard to reach 23.
  • Patents on cream and foam formulations could protect ZORYVE's US position for several more years 1.

What would break the thesis

  • If competition from new topical treatments grows, ZORYVE's share could fall and margins could come under pressure 1.
  • The company has not yet reported consistent profits, and an outstanding loan could limit flexibility if sales slow 12.
  • If clinical studies for new indications do not confirm efficacy, programs could be stopped without compensating revenue 13.

What to watch

  • FDA decision on the cream 0.05% sNDA for infantsFebruary 23, 2027
  • Phase 2 vitiligo results and decision on advancing the programQ4 2026
  • Effect of the primary care and pediatric sales team launch on salesQ3 2026

Products, market & competition

AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 05 Aug 2026; since then the company filed 8-K (04 Nov 2026 · results), 10-Q (04 Nov 2026).

The business

Arcutis is a commercial-stage biopharmaceutical company developing and commercializing treatments for dermatological diseases with high unmet medical needs, including plaque psoriasis, atopic dermatitis and seborrheic dermatitis 1. Its lead product, ZORYVE, is a once-daily topical formulation of roflumilast, a highly potent and selective PDE4 inhibitor, launched in August 2022 1. The company argues ZORYVE can partly replace topical steroids, whose extended use carries known side effects 1.

Market context

Psoriasis affects about 9 million Americans, and most cases are plaque psoriasis 1. If non-steroidal topical treatments win a larger share of this market, expansion into primary care and pediatrics could support sales growth over the medium term 13.

Trends

  • Concern over long-term topical steroid usetailwind

    The company notes that local and systemic side effects of prolonged steroid use are increasingly recognized, which could push physicians toward non-steroidal alternatives 1. This supports the positioning of ZORYVE as a chronic therapy.

  • Access and reimbursementmixed

    Sales depend on insurer coverage and patient costs, and the sector faces pressure on prices and deductions 13. The company has launched digital access initiatives that could help, but reimbursement remains an uncertain factor 3.

  • Competition from new topical treatmentsheadwind

    Alternatives such as tapinarof, topical ruxolitinib and crisaborole already exist, and new products could reduce ZORYVE's share 1. If these products prove to have better safety profiles, competitive pressure could increase.

Competitive position

ZORYVE competes with topical corticosteroids, which remain first-line therapy, with calcineurin inhibitors, with tapinarof, with topical ruxolitinib and with crisaborole 1. Biologics and systemic therapies generally target patients with more severe disease, while most patients still need topical adjunctive treatment 1.

The company's advantage lies in its high potency and favorable tolerability compared with alternatives, which it says is many times greater than some rivals 1. If competitors launch products with similar efficacy and better access, ZORYVE's market share could be affected 1.

  • Topical corticosteroids

    First-line treatment for inflammatory skin diseases with high efficacy, but with side effects from prolonged use 1.

  • Tapinarof (Vtama)

    Non-steroidal topical treatment approved for psoriasis and atopic dermatitis, with application site reactions 1.

  • Topical ruxolitinib (Opzelura)

    Topical treatment for atopic dermatitis with extensive warnings and limited short-term use 1.

  • Crisaborole (Eucrisa)

    Non-steroidal topical PDE4 inhibitor for atopic dermatitis with lower efficacy and application site burning 1.

News & filings

In the press

No news in our archive over the last 180 days.

SEC filings

Sources

  1. [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · SEC / Arcutis Biotherapeutics, Inc. · 25 Feb 2026
  2. [2] Form 10-Q, quarter ended 2026-06-30 · SEC / Arcutis Biotherapeutics, Inc. · 05 Aug 2026
  3. [3] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / Arcutis Biotherapeutics, Inc. · 05 Aug 2026

Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.

Arcutis Biotherapeutics, Inc. (ARQT): stock, results, valuation and forecast · olivLaw