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olivLaw · US equity research

Aon plc AON

Insurance Agents, Brokers & Service · SIC 6411 · Vertical: Insurance Agents, Brokers & Service (SIC 6411)

344.67USD+4.39% · 1 dayClose 04 Nov 2026

Aon plc is a global professional services firm active in Risk Capital and Human Capital, with total revenue of 17.2 billion USD in 2025 and 6% organic revenue growth. In the second quarter of 2026 organic growth was 5%, and the company reaffirmed its 2026 guidance.

The AI analysis may be outdated: new filings came after its sources (see the «AI analysis» section).

At the close of 04 Nov 2026, Aon plc (AON) stock was 344.67 USD (+4.39% on the day), with market capitalisation 73.1 bn USD, P/E 18.9 on diluted EPS of 18.26 USD over the last 12 months, dividend yield 0.91%, beta 0.19, 52-week range 269.45–381.26 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q3 2026): revenue of 4.1 bn USD (+2.6% YoY), net income of 476.0 m USD (+3.9% YoY), diluted EPS 2.23 USD.

Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.

Market cap
73.1 bn USD
shares as of 27 Oct 2026
P/E (TTM)
18.9
Diluted EPS TTM 18.26 · TTM to 30 Sept 2026
E/P (TTM)
5.30%
TTM to 30 Sept 2026
Dividend yield
0.91%
DPS 12m 3.13
Beta (2y)
0.19
Volatility (1y) 29%
52-week range
269.45381.26

Price history

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Technical reading

RSI (14)
76.4
overbought (≥ 70)
Bollinger (20, 2)
259.06 – 342.71
above the upper band · %B 1.02 · band width 27.8%
SMA 50 / 200
300.88 / 325.66
mixed trend
MACD (12, 26, 9)
10.87 / 4.96
MACD above signal

Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).

Performance

CompanyS&P 500vs S&P 500Vertical median
1 month+26.7%−1.1%+27.8 pp—
3 months−4.3%−0.5%−3.8 pp—
6 months+11.8%+4.4%+7.4 pp—
Year to date−2.3%+12.3%−14.6 pp—
1 year+0.1%+13.5%−13.4 pp−0.6%
3 years+6.6%+76.4%−69.8 pp+1.3%
5 years+19.5%+63.7%−44.2 pp—
Max drawdown (1y)
−29.3%
28 Jul 2026 → 02 Oct 2026
Max drawdown (5y)
−34.2%
03 Mar 2025 → 02 Oct 2026
Compound annual growth (5y)
+3.6%
S&P 500 +10.4%

Price returns, dividends excluded.

Quarterly results

Latest quarter: Q3 2026 · 30 Sept 2026

Revenue
4.1 bn USD
+2.6% YoY
Net income
476.0 m USD
+3.9% YoY
Diluted EPS
2.23
+5.7% YoY
net / operating
11.6% / 19.7%

Quarterly margins

Quarterly statements · USD

Fiscal yearQ4 '24Q1 '25Q2 '25Q3 '25Q4 '25Q1 '26Q2 '26Q3 '26
Revenue4.1 bn4.7 bn4.2 bn4.0 bn4.3 bn5.0 bn4.2 bn4.1 bn
Operating income1.1 bn1.5 bn859.0 m816.0 m1.2 bn1.7 bn915.0 m809.0 m
Interest expense206.0 m206.0 m212.0 m206.0 m191.0 m179.0 m179.0 m206.0 m
Pre-tax income891.0 m1.3 bn703.0 m597.0 m2.2 bn1.6 bn724.0 m612.0 m
Income tax157.0 m268.0 m109.0 m127.0 m505.0 m314.0 m159.0 m126.0 m
Net income716.0 m965.0 m579.0 m458.0 m1.7 bn1.2 bn551.0 m476.0 m
Diluted EPS3.28 ≈4.432.662.117.82 ≈5.632.582.23
Operating cash flow1.2 bn140.0 m796.0 m ≈1.1 bn ≈1.4 bn430.0 m556.0 m ≈1.2 bn ≈
Capex55.0 m56.0 m64.0 m ≈69.0 m ≈74.0 m67.0 m73.0 m ≈94.0 m ≈
Dividends paid146.0 m147.0 m161.0 m ≈160.0 m ≈161.0 m162.0 m175.0 m ≈174.0 m ≈

≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)

E/P over time

E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.

Today's P/E sits at the 7 percentile of its own 44-quarter history (min 15.2, median 25.6, max 75.8; quarters with earnings only).

Fiscal years

Fiscal year20182019202020212022202320242025
Revenue10.8 bn11.0 bn11.1 bn12.2 bn12.5 bn13.4 bn15.7 bn17.2 bn
Revenue YoY+7.7%+2.3%+0.5%+10.2%+2.3%+7.2%+17.4%+9.4%
Net income1.2 bn1.5 bn2.0 bn1.3 bn2.6 bn2.6 bn2.7 bn3.7 bn
Net income YoY−7.0%+30.5%+28.5%−36.3%+106.3%−1.0%+3.5%+39.2%
Diluted EPS4.596.378.455.5512.1412.5112.4917.02
Diluted EPS YoY−2.3%+38.8%+32.7%−34.3%+118.7%+3.0%−0.2%+36.3%
net %10.9%13.9%17.8%10.3%20.7%19.2%16.9%21.5%
Free cash flow1.4 bn1.6 bn2.6 bn2.0 bn3.0 bn3.2 bn2.8 bn3.2 bn

Reported results vs expectations

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Balance sheet & financial health

Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025

Cash
1.2 bn USD
Financial debt
15.2 bn USD
Net debt
14.1 bn USD
Equity
9.5 bn USD
Total assets
50.8 bn USD
Debt / equity
1.61x
Current ratio
1.11x
ROE
46.9%
ROA
7.4%
FCF margin
18.7%

Financial statements (source on every figure)

Revenue and net income (USD)

Margins

Income statement · USD

Revenue
2023
13.4 bn
2024
15.7 bn
2025
17.2 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified

Operating income
2023
3.8 bn
2024
3.8 bn
2025
4.3 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified

Interest expense
2023
484.0 m
2024
788.0 m
2025
815.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified

Pre-tax income
2023
3.2 bn
2024
3.5 bn
2025
4.8 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified

Income tax
2023
541.0 m
2024
742.0 m
2025
1.0 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified

Net income
2023
2.6 bn
2024
2.7 bn
2025
3.7 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified

Diluted EPS
2023
12.51
2024
12.49
2025
17.02

SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified

Weighted average diluted shares
2023
205.0 m
2024
212.5 m
2025
217.1 m

SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified

Dividend per share
2023
2.41
2024
2.64
2025
2.91

SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified

Balance sheet · USD

Cash
2023
778.0 m
2024
1.1 bn
2025
1.2 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified

Receivables
2023
3.3 bn
2024
3.8 bn
2025
4.2 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified

Current assets
2023
21.7 bn
2024
23.4 bn
2025
25.8 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified

Property, plant & equipment, net
2023
638.0 m
2024
637.0 m
2025
702.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified

Goodwill
2023
8.4 bn
2024
15.2 bn
2025
15.8 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified

Intangibles (excl. goodwill)
2023
234.0 m
2024
6.7 bn
2025
5.7 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified

Total assets
2023
34.0 bn
2024
49.0 bn
2025
50.8 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified

Accounts payable
2023
2.3 bn
2024
2.9 bn
2025
2.9 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified

Short-term debt
2023
1.2 bn
2024
751.0 m
2025
589.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified

Long-term debt
2023
10.0 bn
2024
16.3 bn
2025
14.7 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified

Current liabilities
2023
21.7 bn
2024
23.0 bn
2025
23.2 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified

Total liabilities
2023
34.7 bn
2024
42.5 bn
2025
41.2 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified

Equity
2023
-742.0 m
2024
6.3 bn
2025
9.5 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified

Cash flow · USD

Operating cash flow
2023
3.4 bn
2024
3.0 bn
2025
3.5 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified

Capex
2023
252.0 m
2024
218.0 m
2025
263.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified

Free cash flow
2023
3.2 bn ≈
2024
2.8 bn ≈
2025
3.2 bn ≈

SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026derived

Investing cash flow
2023
-188.0 m
2024
-2.8 bn
2025
286.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified

Financing cash flow
2023
-2.9 bn
2024
796.0 m
2025
-4.2 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified

Dividends paid
2023
489.0 m
2024
562.0 m
2025
629.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified

Computed indicators

Growth

Revenue growth (YoY)
9.4%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Revenue CAGR 3Y
11.2%
computed by olivLawFY 2022 → FY 2025
Revenue CAGR 5Y
9.2%
computed by olivLawFY 2020 → FY 2025
EBIT growth (YoY)
13.3%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Net income growth (YoY)
39.2%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Net income CAGR 3Y
12.6%
computed by olivLawFY 2022 → FY 2025
Net income CAGR 5Y
13.4%
computed by olivLawFY 2020 → FY 2025
EPS growth (YoY)
36.3%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
EPS CAGR 3Y
11.9%
computed by olivLawFY 2022 → FY 2025
EPS CAGR 5Y
15.0%
computed by olivLawFY 2020 → FY 2025
FCF growth (YoY)
14.2%
computed by olivLawFY 2025

Profitability

Gross margin
unavailable
input data missing
EBITDA margin
unavailable
input data missing
EBIT margin
26.3%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Net margin
22.2%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
FCF margin
18.5%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026

Returns

ROE
43.6%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
ROA
6.7%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
ROIC
12.1%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
ROCE
11.6%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Payout ratio (EPS)
17.1%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Payout ratio (FCF)
20.6%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026

Balance sheet

Net debt
26.0 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Net debt / EBITDA
unavailable
input data missing
Debt / equity
2.8x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Interest coverage
6.2x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026

Liquidity

Current ratio
1.6x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Quick ratio
unavailable
input data missing
Cash ratio
0.1x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026

Cash

Operating cash flow
3.6 bn USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Capital expenditure
308.0 m USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Free cash flow
3.3 bn USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
FCF conversion
83.1%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Cash conversion
unavailable
input data missing

Efficiency

Days sales outstanding
93 days
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Days inventory outstanding
unavailable
input data missing
Days payables outstanding
unavailable
input data missing
Cash conversion cycle
unavailable
input data missing

Market and valuation

Market capitalisation
73.1 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Enterprise value
99.1 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Market cap / net income TTM
18.6x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
P/E (TTM)
18.9x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Earnings yield
5.3%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
P/B
7.2x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
P/S
4.1x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
EV/EBITDA
unavailable
input data missing
EV/EBIT
21.3x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
EV/Sales
5.6x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
P/FCF
22.4x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
FCF yield
4.5%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Dividend yield
0.9%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Shareholder yield (distributions)
0.9%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026

1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.

Valuation

olivLaw classification

Neutral profile

Score: 72 / 100

A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.

Closing price

344.67 USD

04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series

Market cap: 73.1 bn USD

Key indicators

Market capitalisation
73.1 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
P/E (TTM)
18.9x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
P/B
7.2x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
EV/EBITDA
unavailable
input data missing
ROE
43.6%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Net margin
22.2%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Revenue growth (YoY)
9.4%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Dividend yield
0.9%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026

Coverage and freshness

28/37 reporting lines present
Latest full fiscal year: 2025
Latest reported period: 30 Sept 2026
Latest balance sheet date: 30 Sept 2026
Share count (cover of the latest filing), as of: 27 Oct 2026
Source: SEC (XBRL)published 28 Oct 2026
verified 2721derived 163

Score by group

  • Balance sheet69
  • Valuation68
  • Quality78
  • Growth87
  • Returns48

Estimated value range

Low
244.98
USD per share
Mid
373.99
USD per share
High
608.88
USD per share
Price: 344.67 USD
The price is within the range
Potential to the central value: 8.5% (value / price − 1)
Margin of safety: 7.8% (1 − price / value)
Agreement between methods: high · 2 methods used · 2 independent bases

The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 204.99 – 785.19 USD.

Methods computed but outside the aggregate range: Dividend discount (DDM) (a small share of earnings is paid as dividends (capital returns through buybacks): the dividend model does not describe the value and stays outside the aggregate).

Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.

Method ranges (USD per share)

— — Mid · ▏ Price

Valuation methods

  • DCF (discounted cash flow)204.99 – 432.57 (Mid 288.03)
    WACC 8.0% · starting FCFF 3.9 bn USD · terminal value share of EV 78%
    The WACC × g sensitivity gives the method's bounds; these are not probabilities.
    Reverse DCF: starting growth implied by the price (fading linearly to terminal growth, everything else fixed): 17.3%
  • Peers: EV/EBITDAunavailable · input data missing
  • Peers: P/E284.98 – 785.19 (Mid 459.95)
    11 companies used · median multiple 25.2x · quartiles 15.6x – 43.0x
    ACT, AJG, BRO, CRVL, GSHD, MRSH, RYAN, SLQT, TWFG, WDH, WTW
  • Dividend discount (DDM)outside the aggregate38.24 – 51.43 (Mid 43.86)
    a small share of earnings is paid as dividends (capital returns through buybacks): the dividend model does not describe the value and stays outside the aggregate
Multiple comparisons use the SIC vertical: Insurance Agents, Brokers & Service (SIC 6411)

Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.

Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)

Risk-free rate
4.3%
Equity risk premium
5.0%
Beta (default)
1.00
Cost of equity
9.3%
Terminal growth
2.5%

Factor scorecard

Neutral profile · Score 72/100

FactorValueScoreWeight used
ROIC · Quality12.1%71 (vs peers)13%
Net margin · Quality22.2%90 (vs peers)8%
FCF conversion · Quality83.1%76 (on a fixed band)8%
Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth11.2%94 (on a fixed band)11%
EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth11.9%79 (on a fixed band)11%
Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheetunavailableunavailable—
Interest coverage · Balance sheet6.2x72 (on a fixed band)8%
Current ratio · Balance sheet1.6x65 (on a fixed band)5%
P/E (TTM) · Valuation18.9x77 (vs peers)13%
EV/EBITDA · Valuationunavailableunavailable—
FCF yield · Valuation4.5%56 (on a fixed band)11%
Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns0.9%13 (on a fixed band)8%
Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns20.6%100 (on a fixed band)5%

Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.

Score groups

  • Balance sheet69/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
  • Growth87/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
  • Quality78/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
  • Returns48/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
  • Valuation68/100 · 2/3 factors with a value

Memo

Aon plc (AON). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2026-09-30.

Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 17.2 bn USD in 2025; YoY growth 9.4%; net margin 22.2%; ROE 43.6%.

The estimated value range is 244.98–608.88 USD per share (median of 2 methods, agreement: high); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 373.99 USD, the price of 344.67 USD leaves a potential of 8.5% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of 7.8% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.

olivLaw score 72/100, methodological classification: neutral profile (score, margin of safety and method agreement together; not a judgement of the right price). Not investment advice.

Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.

What supports the thesis

  • ROIC: 12.1%
  • Net margin: 22.2%
  • FCF conversion: 83.1%
  • Revenue CAGR 3Y: 11.2%
  • EPS CAGR 3Y: 11.9%
  • Interest coverage: 6.2x
  • P/E (TTM): 18.9x
  • Payout ratio (FCF): 20.6%

What contradicts it

  • Shareholder yield (distributions): 0.9%

Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): Net debt / EBITDA, EV/EBITDA.

Versus the vertical median

Insurance Agents, Brokers & Service (SIC 6411) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 29 companies

The size band was not applied: too few companies would have remained; the vertical includes much smaller or larger companies.

Multiples and returns vs the median

P/E
18.9x
vertical median 33.8x
below median (−44.1%)
EV/EBITDA
—
vertical median 16.2x
P/S
4.1x
vertical median 3.3x
above median (+26.4%)
P/B
7.2x
vertical median 4.0x
above median (+80.7%)
ROE
43.6%
vertical median 9.7%
above median (+347.5%)
Net margin
22.2%
vertical median 4.4%
above median (+409.8%)
EBIT margin
26.3%
vertical median 6.9%
above median (+282.6%)
Revenue YoY
9.4%
vertical median 17.3%
below median (−45.4%)
Net debt/EBITDA
—
vertical median -0.9x
Dividend yield
0.9%
vertical median 1.1%
below median (−19.4%)

Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)

Companies in the vertical

Market capP/EROENet marginRevenue YoY1A / 3A
MRSHMarsh & Mclennan Companies, Inc.100.0 bn25.226.7%14.2%+10.3%+15% / +5%
XHGXChange TEC.INC85.9 bn——-204.9%+24.9%+253% / −100%
AJGArthur J. Gallagher & Co.73.9 bn47.16.7%10.0%+20.7%+16% / +16%
AONAon plc73.1 bn18.943.6%22.2%+9.4%+0% / +7%
WTWWillis Towers Watson PLC31.1 bn20.520.2%15.2%−2.2%+5% / +37%
BROBrown & Brown, Inc.24.5 bn22.19.7%17.6%+22.8%−8% / −1%
EQHEquitable Holdings, Inc.15.3 bn—-508.8%-8.7%−6.1%+20% / +83%
AIFUAIFU Inc.10.5 bn—-155.9%-408.8%−67.9%−84% / −100%
ACTEnact Holdings, Inc.6.6 bn10.712.7%53.8%+2.8%+25% / +74%
HGTYHagerty, Inc.6.5 bn108.025.6%4.4%+17.3%+40% / +121%
RYANRyan Specialty Holdings, Inc.5.2 bn49.919.4%3.2%+21.3%−18% / +4%
CRVLCorvel Corporation4.4 bn38.930.7%11.7%+7.0%+19% / +26%
WDHWaterdrop Inc.3.6 bn50.511.6%14.2%+49.8%−44% / −16%
ARXAccelerant Holdings3.3 bn—-241.6%-112.1%+51.5%+36% / unavailable
NPNeptune Insurance Holdings Inc.2.7 bn91.6—22.7%+33.7%+22% / unavailable
GSHDGoosehead Insurance, Inc.1.2 bn33.8—8.8%+16.2%−21% / −23%
HUIZHuize Holding Limited1.1 bn—1.0%0.3%+32.2%−31% / −48%
BWINThe Baldwin Insurance Group, Inc.1.1 bn—-10.7%-4.7%+8.3%+13% / +84%
RDZNRoadzen Inc.92.8 m——-46.9%+24.2%−37% / −78%
SLQTSelectQuote, Inc.88.1 m7.323.4%4.6%+6.0%−66% / −61%
EHTHeHealth, Inc20.3 m—5.0%5.4%+4.1%−84% / −91%
EZRAReliance Global Group, Inc.2.4 m—-123.4%-54.3%−11.6%−91% / −100%
YBYuanbao Inc.——152.7%29.9%+33.1%−43% / unavailable
ZBAOZhibao Technology Inc.——-141.3%-22.4%+53.0%−99% / unavailable
LIFEEthos Technologies Inc.0—-50.8%-16.2%+52.0%unavailable / unavailable

1- and 3-year price returns: for AON from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.

olivLaw engine forecast

The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.

Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)

Illustrative scenarios

Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.

Bear
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Base
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Bull
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Nothing is saved.

Estimated price (USD)

Estimated priceBearBaseBull
1 years
220.81
Total return -35% · Per year -35%
389.19
Total return 14% · Per year 14%
584.60
Total return 71% · Per year 71%
3 years
244.35
Total return -27% · Per year -10%
481.65
Total return 43% · Per year 13%
789.99
Total return 134% · Per year 33%
5 years
270.40
Total return -17% · Per year -4%
596.09
Total return 79% · Per year 12%
1,067.55
Total return 218% · Per year 26%
What moves the 3-year price the most
  • Exit P/E± 120.41
  • Net margin± 84.29
  • Annual revenue growth± 64.99
  • Annual dilution± 7.08

AI analysis

AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 29 Jul 2026; since then the company filed 10-Q (28 Oct 2026), 8-K (28 Oct 2026 · results).

In brief

Aon plc is a global professional services firm active in Risk Capital and Human Capital, with total revenue of 17.2 billion USD in 2025 and 6% organic revenue growth 1. In the second quarter of 2026 organic growth was 5%, and the company reaffirmed its 2026 guidance 23.

SWOT

Strengths

  • Geographic and client diversification gives stability across different economic scenarios 1.
  • A portfolio weighted toward recurring revenue and low capital use supports cash generation 13.
  • Steady organic growth and high client retention point to durable business model strength 23.

Weaknesses

  • Interest costs and existing debt limit financial flexibility, as the risk factors note 1.
  • Revenue can fluctuate with insurance market cycles that the company does not control 1.
  • Integration costs and amortization of acquired assets have weighed on reported operating results 1.

Opportunities

  • Expanding the addressable market through traditional and new sources of capital could add revenue 3.
  • Investment in data, analytics and AI could improve products and operating efficiency 13.
  • Restructuring and cost discipline could support margin gains if they are sustained 23.

Threats

  • Competitors with lower cost structures or faster technology could take market share 1.
  • An economic downturn could reduce client discretionary spending and placement activity 1.
  • Regulatory changes on data, AI and global taxation could raise costs 1.

Risks

  • Dependence on the economic cyclehigh

    A decline in economic activity could reduce revenue, especially discretionary services and property and casualty commissions 1.

  • Competitive pressurehigh

    Competitors with greater resources or more advanced technology could affect pricing and market share 1.

  • Regulatory and data riskmedium

    Requirements on data protection and artificial intelligence could increase costs or limit business opportunities 1.

  • Currency and interest rate riskmedium

    Changes in exchange rates and interest rates could affect results and the value of cash and investments 1.

  • Catastrophe and professional liability risklow

    Natural or human-caused disasters, or errors and omissions claims, could affect financial results 1.

Investment thesis

What would need to be true (bull case)

  • If organic growth stays near the recently reported level, the company could keep improving margins and earnings per share 23.
  • Solid cash generation and the share repurchase programme could support financial flexibility 3.
  • The Aon United strategy and data investments could strengthen the long-term competitive position 13.

What would break the thesis

  • If the insurance market softens or economic activity slows, premium-based revenue could decline 1.
  • Competitive pressure and rapid innovation by rivals could limit growth and margins 1.
  • Debt costs and regulatory expenses could reduce profitability in difficult periods 1.

What to watch

  • Progress of organic growth and operating margin against 2026 guidanceQ3 2026
  • Advancement of the share repurchase programme against the full-year objective2026

Products, market & competition

AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 29 Jul 2026; since then the company filed 10-Q (28 Oct 2026), 8-K (28 Oct 2026 · results).

The business

Aon focuses its portfolio on higher-margin, capital-light professional services with high recurring revenue, according to its annual report 1. The company serves clients in more than 120 countries and nearly every industry, and it describes this diversification as a source of stability across different economic scenarios 1. Revenue comes mainly from commissions, compensation from insurers and reinsurers, and client fees 1.

Segments

Risk Capital

The Risk Capital segment generated 11.3 billion USD of revenue in 2025 and includes Commercial Risk Solutions and Reinsurance Solutions, among them captive management and capital markets advisory 1. Segment operating margin edged down in 2025 as costs linked to the NFP acquisition rose 1.

Human Capital

The Human Capital segment grew to 5.9 billion USD in 2025 and covers Health Solutions, Wealth Solutions and talent advisory 1. In the first half of 2026 segment revenue fell slightly after the NFP Wealth divestiture, while operating margin improved 23.

Market context

Aon operates in a highly competitive and fragmented environment that includes other global brokers, consulting firms and insurers that sell products directly 1. Its revenue depends on client business activity, since demand for property and casualty insurance tends to rise with economic activity and fall in downturns 1.

Trends

  • Global expansion and organic growthtailwind

    The company reports organic growth supported by new business and strong client retention, which could sustain revenue if demand stays firm 23.

  • Softening of the insurance marketheadwind

    A decline in insurance premiums could reduce revenue that is calculated as a percentage of premiums, a risk the company has already flagged 1.

  • Artificial intelligence and automationmixed

    Investment in AI could create efficiency gains, but it could also erode the current advantage if competitors innovate faster 1.

  • Effect of business divestituresmixed

    The sales of NFP Wealth and Stroz Friedberg reduced reported revenue in the second quarter of 2026, while margin and cash flow improved 23.

Competitive position

Aon says it competes on service, insight delivery, product features, price, technology, financial strength and access to certain insurance markets 1. Larger competitors may have greater resources and stronger client relationships, and the trend of clients using several brokers intensifies pressure 1.

  • Marsh McLennanMMC

    Global insurance broker and consultancy named by Aon as a principal competitor 1.

  • Willis Towers WatsonWTW

    Global risk and human capital consultancy named among Aon's main competitors 1.

  • Arthur J Gallagher & CompanyAJG

    International insurance broker cited by the company as a direct competitor 1.

  • Lockton Companies

    Private brokerage and consulting firm named among Aon's global competitors 1.

News & filings

In the press

The latest news item in our archive is from 07 Sept 2026; the newest SEC filing is from 28 Oct 2026. The press archive comes from the RSS feeds we follow and does not necessarily cover the latest event — the filings alongside do.

SEC filings

  • Quarterly report28 Oct 2026
  • Current report28 Oct 2026
    Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
  • Current report22 Sept 2026
    Material agreement · Termination of a material agreement · Creation of a direct financial obligation · Financial statements and exhibits
  • Current report17 Sept 2026
    Other events · Financial statements and exhibits
  • Current report11 Sept 2026
    Other events · Financial statements and exhibits
  • Current report31 Aug 2026
    Material agreement · Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
  • Current report17 Aug 2026
    Departure or appointment of officers · Financial statements and exhibits
  • Quarterly report29 Jul 2026
  • Current report29 Jul 2026
    Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
  • Current report01 Jul 2026
    Departure or appointment of officers · Shareholder vote · Other events · Financial statements and exhibits

Sources

  1. [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · SEC / Aon plc · 13 Feb 2026
  2. [2] Form 10-Q, quarter ended 2026-06-30 · SEC / Aon plc · 29 Jul 2026
  3. [3] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / Aon plc · 29 Jul 2026

Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.