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olivLaw · US equity research

WTW (Willis Towers Watson PLC) WTW

Insurance Agents, Brokers & Service · SIC 6411 · Vertical: Insurance Agents, Brokers & Service (SIC 6411)

337.37USD+2.96% · 1 dayClose 04 Nov 2026

WTW is a global advisory, broking and solutions firm operating in two segments: Health, Wealth & Career (55% of segment revenue in 2025) and Risk & Broking (45%). Fiscal 2025 revenue was 9708 million USD, with organic growth of 5%. Q2 2026 revenue reached 2466 million USD with an adjusted operating margin of 19.5%.

The AI analysis may be outdated: new filings came after its sources (see the «AI analysis» section).

At the close of 04 Nov 2026, WTW (Willis Towers Watson PLC) (WTW) stock was 337.37 USD (+2.96% on the day), with market capitalisation 31.1 bn USD, P/E 20.5 on diluted EPS of 16.42 USD over the last 12 months, dividend yield 1.13%, beta 0.22, 52-week range 242.12–350.75 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q3 2026): revenue of 2.5 bn USD (+7.5% YoY), net income of 303.0 m USD (−0.3% YoY), diluted EPS 3.24 USD.

Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.

Market cap
31.1 bn USD
shares as of 26 Oct 2026
P/E (TTM)
20.5
Diluted EPS TTM 16.42 · TTM to 30 Sept 2026
E/P (TTM)
4.87%
TTM to 30 Sept 2026
Dividend yield
1.13%
DPS 12m 3.80
Beta (2y)
0.22
Volatility (1y) 32%
52-week range
242.12350.75

Price history

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Technical reading

RSI (14)
69.9
strong (55–70)
Bollinger (20, 2)
291.50 – 340.72
in the upper half of the band · %B 0.93 · band width 15.6%
SMA 50 / 200
314.02 / 296.71
uptrend (price > SMA50 > SMA200)
MACD (12, 26, 9)
6.26 / 4.23
MACD above signal

Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).

Performance

CompanyS&P 500vs S&P 500Vertical median
1 month+17.1%−1.1%+18.2 pp—
3 months−0.2%−0.5%+0.2 pp—
6 months+33.7%+4.4%+29.3 pp—
Year to date+2.7%+12.3%−9.6 pp—
1 year+4.5%+13.5%−9.0 pp−3.9%
3 years+42.8%+76.4%−33.6 pp+1.3%
5 years+45.9%+63.7%−17.8 pp—
Max drawdown (1y)
−28.7%
04 Feb 2026 → 13 May 2026
Max drawdown (5y)
−30.8%
07 Oct 2025 → 13 May 2026
Compound annual growth (5y)
+7.8%
S&P 500 +10.4%

Price returns, dividends excluded.

Quarterly results

Latest quarter: Q3 2026 · 30 Sept 2026

Revenue
2.5 bn USD
+7.5% YoY
Net income
303.0 m USD
−0.3% YoY
Diluted EPS
3.24
+4.2% YoY
net / operating
12.3% / 17.4%

Quarterly margins

Quarterly statements · USD

Fiscal yearQ4 '24Q1 '25Q2 '25Q3 '25Q4 '25Q1 '26Q2 '26Q3 '26
Revenue3.0 bn2.2 bn2.3 bn2.3 bn2.9 bn2.4 bn2.5 bn2.5 bn
Operating income901.0 m432.0 m368.0 m418.0 m1.0 bn448.0 m364.0 m429.0 m
Interest expense66.0 m65.0 m64.0 m65.0 m66.0 m77.0 m78.0 m80.0 m
Pre-tax income1.7 bn303.0 m313.0 m390.0 m947.0 m376.0 m292.0 m401.0 m
Income tax440.0 m65.0 m-21.0 m77.0 m197.0 m70.0 m57.0 m79.0 m
Net income1.2 bn235.0 m331.0 m304.0 m735.0 m297.0 m229.0 m303.0 m
Diluted EPS12.58 ≈2.333.323.117.65 ≈3.102.433.24
Operating cash flow599.0 m-35.0 m361.0 m ≈678.0 m ≈771.0 m-10.0 m484.0 m ≈739.0 m ≈
Capex56.0 m51.0 m58.0 m ≈57.0 m ≈63.0 m55.0 m59.0 m ≈64.0 m ≈
Dividends paid89.0 m88.0 m91.0 m ≈90.0 m ≈89.0 m88.0 m90.0 m ≈89.0 m ≈
Share repurchases395.0 m200.0 m500.0 m ≈600.0 m ≈350.0 m300.0 m450.0 m ≈220.0 m ≈

≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)

E/P over time

E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.

Today's P/E sits at the 27 percentile of its own 41-quarter history (min 7.0, median 25.2, max 170.9; quarters with earnings only).

Fiscal years

Fiscal year20182019202020212022202320242025
Revenue8.5 bn8.4 bn8.6 bn9.0 bn8.9 bn9.5 bn9.9 bn9.7 bn
Revenue YoY+3.8%−1.7%+2.9%+4.4%−1.5%+7.0%+4.7%−2.2%
Net income695.0 m1.0 bn996.0 m4.2 bn1.0 bn1.1 bn-98.0 m1.6 bn
Net income YoY+22.4%+50.2%−4.6%+323.9%−76.1%+4.6%−109.3%unavailable
Diluted EPS5.278.027.6532.788.989.95-0.9616.26
Diluted EPS YoY+26.1%+52.2%−4.6%+328.5%−72.6%+10.8%−109.6%unavailable
net %8.2%12.5%11.6%46.9%11.4%11.1%-1.0%16.5%
Free cash flow1.0 bnunavailableunavailableunavailableunavailable1.1 bn1.3 bn1.5 bn

Reported results vs expectations

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Balance sheet & financial health

Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025

Cash
3.1 bn USD
Financial debt
6.3 bn USD
Net debt
3.2 bn USD
Equity
8.1 bn USD
Total assets
29.5 bn USD
Debt / equity
0.78x
Current ratio
1.20x
ROE
20.0%
ROA
5.6%
FCF margin
15.9%

Financial statements (source on every figure)

Revenue and net income (USD)

Margins

Income statement · USD

Revenue
2023
9.5 bn
2024
9.9 bn
2025
9.7 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified

Operating income
2023
1.4 bn
2024
627.0 m
2025
2.2 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified

Interest expense
2023
235.0 m
2024
263.0 m
2025
260.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified

Pre-tax income
2023
1.3 bn
2024
102.0 m
2025
2.0 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified

Income tax
2023
215.0 m
2024
192.0 m
2025
318.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified

Net income
2023
1.1 bn
2024
-98.0 m
2025
1.6 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified

Diluted EPS
2023
9.95
2024
-0.96
2025
16.26

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified

Weighted average diluted shares
2023
106.0 m
2024
102.0 m
2025
99.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified

Dividend per share
2023
3.36
2024
3.52
2025
3.68

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified

Balance sheet · USD

Cash
2023
1.4 bn
2024
1.9 bn
2025
3.1 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified

Receivables
2023
2.6 bn
2024
2.5 bn
2025
2.7 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified

Current assets
2023
13.4 bn
2024
15.1 bn
2025
16.9 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified

Property, plant & equipment, net
2023
720.0 m
2024
661.0 m
2025
695.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified

Goodwill
2023
10.2 bn
2024
8.8 bn
2025
8.9 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified

Intangibles (excl. goodwill)
2023
2.0 bn
2024
1.3 bn
2025
1.1 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified

Total assets
2023
29.1 bn
2024
27.7 bn
2025
29.5 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified

Short-term debt
2023
650.0 m
2024
0
2025
550.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified

Long-term debt
2023
4.6 bn
2024
5.3 bn
2025
5.8 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified

Current liabilities
2023
12.6 bn
2024
12.6 bn
2025
14.0 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified

Total liabilities
2023
19.5 bn
2024
19.7 bn
2025
21.5 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified

Equity
2023
9.6 bn
2024
8.0 bn
2025
8.1 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified

Cash flow · USD

Operating cash flow
2023
1.3 bn
2024
1.5 bn
2025
1.8 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified

Capex
2023
242.0 m
2024
245.0 m
2025
229.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified

Free cash flow
2023
1.1 bn ≈
2024
1.3 bn ≈
2025
1.5 bn ≈

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026derived

Investing cash flow
2023
-1.1 bn
2024
250.0 m
2025
447.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified

Financing cash flow
2023
-1.2 bn
2024
-459.0 m
2025
-936.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified

Dividends paid
2023
352.0 m
2024
354.0 m
2025
358.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified

Share repurchases
2023
1.0 bn
2024
901.0 m
2025
1.7 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified

Computed indicators

Growth

Revenue growth (YoY)
-2.2%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Revenue CAGR 3Y
3.1%
computed by olivLawFY 2022 → FY 2025
Revenue CAGR 5Y
2.4%
computed by olivLawFY 2020 → FY 2025
EBIT growth (YoY)
256.3%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Net income growth (YoY)
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
Net income CAGR 3Y
16.7%
computed by olivLawFY 2022 → FY 2025
Net income CAGR 5Y
10.0%
computed by olivLawFY 2020 → FY 2025
EPS growth (YoY)
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
EPS CAGR 3Y
21.9%
computed by olivLawFY 2022 → FY 2025
EPS CAGR 5Y
16.3%
computed by olivLawFY 2020 → FY 2025
FCF growth (YoY)
22.0%
computed by olivLawFY 2025

Profitability

Gross margin
unavailable
input data missing
EBITDA margin
unavailable
input data missing
EBIT margin
22.0%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Net margin
15.2%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
FCF margin
17.0%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026

Returns

ROE
20.2%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
ROA
5.4%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
ROIC
15.3%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
ROCE
14.7%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Payout ratio (EPS)
23.1%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Payout ratio (FCF)
20.4%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026

Balance sheet

Net debt
4.6 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Net debt / EBITDA
unavailable
input data missing
Debt / equity
0.8x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Interest coverage
7.5x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026

Liquidity

Current ratio
1.1x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Quick ratio
unavailable
input data missing
Cash ratio
0.1x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026

Cash

Operating cash flow
2.0 bn USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Capital expenditure
241.0 m USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Free cash flow
1.7 bn USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
FCF conversion
111.4%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Cash conversion
unavailable
input data missing

Efficiency

Days sales outstanding
83 days
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Days inventory outstanding
unavailable
input data missing
Days payables outstanding
unavailable
input data missing
Cash conversion cycle
unavailable
input data missing

Market and valuation

Market capitalisation
31.1 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Enterprise value
35.7 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Market cap / net income TTM
19.9x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
P/E (TTM)
20.5x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Earnings yield
4.9%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
P/B
4.0x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
P/S
3.0x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
EV/EBITDA
unavailable
input data missing
EV/EBIT
15.8x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
EV/Sales
3.5x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
P/FCF
17.8x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
FCF yield
5.6%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Dividend yield
1.1%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Shareholder yield (distributions)
5.4%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026

1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.

Valuation

olivLaw classification

Neutral profile

Score: 75 / 100

A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.

Closing price

337.37 USD

04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series

Market cap: 31.1 bn USD

Key indicators

Market capitalisation
31.1 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
P/E (TTM)
20.5x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
P/B
4.0x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
EV/EBITDA
unavailable
input data missing
ROE
20.2%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Net margin
15.2%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Revenue growth (YoY)
-2.2%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Dividend yield
1.1%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026

Coverage and freshness

28/37 reporting lines present
Latest full fiscal year: 2025
Latest reported period: 30 Sept 2026
Latest balance sheet date: 30 Sept 2026
Share count (cover of the latest filing), as of: 26 Oct 2026
Source: SEC (XBRL)published 29 Oct 2026
verified 2551derived 171

Score by group

  • Balance sheet65
  • Valuation70
  • Quality89
  • Growth63
  • Returns86

Estimated value range

Low
247.46
USD per share
Mid
367.57
USD per share
High
571.20
USD per share
Price: 337.37 USD
The price is within the range
Potential to the central value: 9.0% (value / price − 1)
Margin of safety: 8.2% (1 − price / value)
Agreement between methods: high · 2 methods used · 2 independent bases

The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 242.65 – 706.24 USD.

Methods computed but outside the aggregate range: Dividend discount (DDM) (a small share of earnings is paid as dividends (capital returns through buybacks): the dividend model does not describe the value and stays outside the aggregate).

Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.

Method ranges (USD per share)

— — Mid · ▏ Price

Valuation methods

  • DCF (discounted cash flow)252.28 – 436.16 (Mid 321.45)
    WACC 8.5% · starting FCFF 2.0 bn USD · terminal value share of EV 75%
    The WACC × g sensitivity gives the method's bounds; these are not probabilities.
    Reverse DCF: starting growth implied by the price (fading linearly to terminal growth, everything else fixed): 4.9%
  • Peers: EV/EBITDAunavailable · input data missing
  • Peers: P/E242.65 – 706.24 (Mid 413.70)
    11 companies used · median multiple 25.2x · quartiles 14.8x – 43.0x
    ACT, AJG, AON, BRO, CRVL, GSHD, MRSH, RYAN, SLQT, TWFG, WDH
  • Dividend discount (DDM)outside the aggregate48.36 – 65.03 (Mid 55.47)
    a small share of earnings is paid as dividends (capital returns through buybacks): the dividend model does not describe the value and stays outside the aggregate
Multiple comparisons use the SIC vertical: Insurance Agents, Brokers & Service (SIC 6411)

Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.

Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)

Risk-free rate
4.3%
Equity risk premium
5.0%
Beta (default)
1.00
Cost of equity
9.3%
Terminal growth
2.5%

Factor scorecard

Neutral profile · Score 75/100

FactorValueScoreWeight used
ROIC · Quality15.3%86 (vs peers)13%
Net margin · Quality15.2%83 (vs peers)8%
FCF conversion · Quality111.4%100 (on a fixed band)8%
Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth3.1%26 (on a fixed band)11%
EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth21.9%100 (on a fixed band)11%
Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheetunavailableunavailable—
Interest coverage · Balance sheet7.5x92 (on a fixed band)8%
Current ratio · Balance sheet1.1x25 (on a fixed band)5%
P/E (TTM) · Valuation20.5x69 (vs peers)13%
EV/EBITDA · Valuationunavailableunavailable—
FCF yield · Valuation5.6%70 (on a fixed band)11%
Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns5.4%77 (on a fixed band)8%
Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns20.4%100 (on a fixed band)5%

Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.

Score groups

  • Balance sheet65/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
  • Growth63/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
  • Quality89/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
  • Returns86/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
  • Valuation70/100 · 2/3 factors with a value

Memo

WILLIS TOWERS WATSON PLC (WTW). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2026-09-30.

Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 9.7 bn USD in 2025; YoY growth -2.2%; net margin 15.2%; ROE 20.2%.

The estimated value range is 247.46–571.20 USD per share (median of 2 methods, agreement: high); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 367.57 USD, the price of 337.37 USD leaves a potential of 9.0% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of 8.2% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.

olivLaw score 75/100, methodological classification: neutral profile (score, margin of safety and method agreement together; not a judgement of the right price). Not investment advice.

Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.

What supports the thesis

  • ROIC: 15.3%
  • Net margin: 15.2%
  • FCF conversion: 111.4%
  • EPS CAGR 3Y: 21.9%
  • Interest coverage: 7.5x
  • FCF yield: 5.6%
  • Shareholder yield (distributions): 5.4%
  • Payout ratio (FCF): 20.4%

What contradicts it

  • Revenue CAGR 3Y: 3.1%
  • Current ratio: 1.1x

Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): Net debt / EBITDA, EV/EBITDA.

Versus the vertical median

Insurance Agents, Brokers & Service (SIC 6411) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 29 companies

The size band was not applied: too few companies would have remained; the vertical includes much smaller or larger companies.

Multiples and returns vs the median

P/E
20.5x
vertical median 33.8x
below median (−39.2%)
EV/EBITDA
—
vertical median 16.2x
P/S
3.0x
vertical median 3.5x
below median (−14.2%)
P/B
4.0x
vertical median 4.6x
below median (−12.9%)
ROE
20.2%
vertical median 9.7%
above median (+107.2%)
Net margin
15.2%
vertical median 4.4%
above median (+249.0%)
EBIT margin
22.0%
vertical median 6.9%
above median (+219.8%)
Revenue YoY
-2.2%
vertical median 17.3%
below median (−112.9%)
Net debt/EBITDA
—
vertical median -0.9x
Dividend yield
1.1%
vertical median 0.9%
above median (+20.3%)

Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)

Companies in the vertical

Market capP/EROENet marginRevenue YoY1A / 3A
MRSHMarsh & Mclennan Companies, Inc.100.0 bn25.226.7%14.2%+10.3%+15% / +5%
XHGXChange TEC.INC85.9 bn——-204.9%+24.9%+253% / −100%
AJGArthur J. Gallagher & Co.73.9 bn47.16.7%10.0%+20.7%+16% / +16%
AONAon plc73.1 bn18.943.6%22.2%+9.4%−3% / +5%
WTWWillis Towers Watson PLC31.1 bn20.520.2%15.2%−2.2%+5% / +43%
BROBrown & Brown, Inc.24.5 bn22.19.7%17.6%+22.8%−8% / −1%
EQHEquitable Holdings, Inc.15.3 bn—-508.8%-8.7%−6.1%+20% / +83%
AIFUAIFU Inc.10.5 bn—-155.9%-408.8%−67.9%−84% / −100%
ACTEnact Holdings, Inc.6.6 bn10.712.7%53.8%+2.8%+25% / +74%
HGTYHagerty, Inc.6.5 bn108.025.6%4.4%+17.3%+40% / +121%
RYANRyan Specialty Holdings, Inc.5.2 bn49.919.4%3.2%+21.3%−18% / +4%
CRVLCorvel Corporation4.4 bn38.930.7%11.7%+7.0%+19% / +26%
WDHWaterdrop Inc.3.6 bn50.511.6%14.2%+49.8%−44% / −16%
ARXAccelerant Holdings3.3 bn—-241.6%-112.1%+51.5%+36% / unavailable
NPNeptune Insurance Holdings Inc.2.7 bn91.6—22.7%+33.7%+22% / unavailable
GSHDGoosehead Insurance, Inc.1.2 bn33.8—8.8%+16.2%−21% / −23%
HUIZHuize Holding Limited1.1 bn—1.0%0.3%+32.2%−31% / −48%
BWINThe Baldwin Insurance Group, Inc.1.1 bn—-10.7%-4.7%+8.3%+13% / +84%
RDZNRoadzen Inc.92.8 m——-46.9%+24.2%−37% / −78%
SLQTSelectQuote, Inc.88.1 m7.323.4%4.6%+6.0%−66% / −61%
EHTHeHealth, Inc20.3 m—5.0%5.4%+4.1%−84% / −91%
EZRAReliance Global Group, Inc.2.4 m—-123.4%-54.3%−11.6%−91% / −100%
YBYuanbao Inc.——152.7%29.9%+33.1%−43% / unavailable
ZBAOZhibao Technology Inc.——-141.3%-22.4%+53.0%−99% / unavailable
LIFEEthos Technologies Inc.0—-50.8%-16.2%+52.0%unavailable / unavailable

1- and 3-year price returns: for WTW from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.

olivLaw engine forecast

The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.

Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)

Illustrative scenarios

Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.

Bear
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Base
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Bull
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Nothing is saved.

Estimated price (USD)

Estimated priceBearBaseBull
1 years
202.97
Total return -39% · Per year -39%
359.09
Total return 8% · Per year 8%
541.23
Total return 62% · Per year 62%
3 years
191.37
Total return -41% · Per year -16%
381.48
Total return 17% · Per year 5%
632.11
Total return 92% · Per year 24%
5 years
180.43
Total return -42% · Per year -10%
405.26
Total return 26% · Per year 5%
738.26
Total return 127% · Per year 18%
What moves the 3-year price the most
  • Exit P/E± 95.37
  • Net margin± 66.76
  • Annual revenue growth± 55.56
  • Annual dilution± 5.61

AI analysis

AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 30 Jul 2026; since then the company filed 10-Q (29 Oct 2026), 8-K (29 Oct 2026 · results).

In brief

WTW is a global advisory, broking and solutions firm operating in two segments: Health, Wealth & Career (55% of segment revenue in 2025) and Risk & Broking (45%) 1. Fiscal 2025 revenue was 9708 million USD, with organic growth of 5% 1. Q2 2026 revenue reached 2466 million USD with an adjusted operating margin of 19.5% 3.

SWOT

Strengths

  • Global scale and a broad base of large corporate clients, often in long-standing relationships 1.
  • Solid organic growth in recent quarters and margin expansion in both segments 3.

Weaknesses

  • Revenue depends on insurance premium levels, which are cyclical and can decline 1.
  • Pension liabilities and debt can affect financial flexibility and net income 1.
  • Net income in recent quarters fell year over year despite revenue growth 3.

Opportunities

  • If the Propel plan succeeds, automation could lift margins and free capital for investment 3.
  • Regulatory and labour-market change can generate demand for advice on compensation and benefits 1.
  • Recent acquisitions such as Newfront could extend the business into faster-growing segments 3.

Threats

  • A softer insurance market could reduce commissions and pressure margins 2.
  • Economic uncertainty, tariffs and geopolitical conflicts could reduce client activity 2.
  • Litigation, regulatory investigations and cyber risks could generate financial losses 1.

Risks

  • Cyclicality of insurance premiumshigh

    A period of falling premium rates could reduce commissions and revenue 1.

  • Execution of strategy and the Propel planhigh

    If technology and automation investments do not yield the expected savings, the margin target could be delayed 3.

  • Pension liabilities and debtmedium

    Fluctuations in pension liabilities and the cost of debt could affect financial position and net income 1.

  • Cyber and data risksmedium

    Security breaches or data regulation failures could generate losses and legal liability 1.

  • Currency and geopolitical exposuremedium

    A large part of activity takes place outside the United States, where currency swings and conflicts can influence results 1.

Investment thesis

What would need to be true (bull case)

  • If organic growth holds and the Propel plan delivers the estimated savings, operating margin could move toward the 2028 target 3.
  • A broad base of multinational clients and recurring revenue could cushion market cycles 1.
  • An expanded buyback programme and free cash flow generation could support capital efficiency, depending on market conditions 3.

What would break the thesis

  • If the insurance market keeps softening, commission revenue could stagnate or decline 2.
  • High costs of the automation programme could delay or reduce margin gains if execution is weak 3.
  • Economic and geopolitical uncertainty could reduce client spending on discretionary services 2.

What to watch

  • Trend in insurance premium rates and organic growth in Risk & BrokingQ3 2026
  • Progress of the Propel programme and realised savings2027
  • Full-year 2026 guidance on organic growth and adjusted marginQ4 2026

Products, market & competition

AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 30 Jul 2026; since then the company filed 10-Q (29 Oct 2026), 8-K (29 Oct 2026 · results).

The business

WTW describes itself as a company providing data-driven solutions in people, risk and capital, with about 47000 colleagues serving more than 140 countries and markets 1. It is not an insurer and does not underwrite risk for its own account; revenue comes mainly from brokerage commissions and consulting fees 1. Strategy rests on three objectives: accelerating performance, enhancing efficiency and optimizing the portfolio through acquisitions and divestitures 1.

In July 2026 the company announced Propel, an AI and automation acceleration plan targeting an adjusted operating margin of about 30% in 2028 3. The board increased share repurchase authority by 1.5 billion USD, in addition to about 500 million USD remaining 3.

Market context

Revenue depends on insurance premium levels: a soft market with falling premiums pressures commissions, while a hard market lifts them 1. At the time of the latest quarterly report, market conditions continued to soften, except for U.S. casualty and some specialty lines 2.

Demand for consulting and benefits services is supported by regulatory and technological change, and some health and benefits activity can be counter-cyclical early in an economic shift 1. Demand for M&A-related services can fall when economic activity slows 2.

Trends

  • Softening insurance marketheadwind

    If premium rates keep falling, commission revenue could come under pressure, particularly in Risk & Broking 2.

  • Macroeconomic and tariff uncertaintymixed

    Persistent inflation, fluctuating interest rates and geopolitical tensions could affect client spending and company costs 2.

  • Artificial intelligence and automationmixed

    The Propel plan aims to lower costs and lift margins, but it requires significant investment and its results depend on execution 3.

  • Regulatory and legislative changetailwind

    Regulatory shifts can create demand for advisory work, but they can also raise compliance costs or limit compensation 1.

Competitive position

WTW operates in a competitive brokerage and consulting sector where decision factors include reputation, global scale, service quality and the ability to tailor solutions 1. The company points to established and new competitors in its markets 1.

Differentiation rests on combining data, analytics and technology, and Propel is designed to strengthen that position 3. Competitive pressure could affect pricing and share if technology investments fail to deliver expected returns 1.

  • Marsh & McLennanMMC

    Direct competitor in brokerage and consulting, named here only as a sector peer; the supplied sources do not name it, so the description is general.

  • AonAON

    Major player in insurance brokerage and benefits consulting; the supplied sources do not detail it, so it is a general reference.

  • Arthur J. GallagherAJG

    Global insurance broker competing in risk and brokerage; the supplied sources do not name it, so the position is general.

  • Regional and specialist brokers and consultants

    Local and niche firms competing in specific segments or markets, referred to generically in the sector risks.

News & filings

In the press

The latest news item in our archive is from 15 Sept 2026; the newest SEC filing is from 03 Nov 2026. The press archive comes from the RSS feeds we follow and does not necessarily cover the latest event — the filings alongside do.

SEC filings

Sources

  1. [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · SEC / WTW (Willis Towers Watson PLC) · 25 Feb 2026
  2. [2] Form 10-Q, quarter ended 2026-06-30 · SEC / WTW (Willis Towers Watson PLC) · 30 Jul 2026
  3. [3] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / WTW (Willis Towers Watson PLC) · 30 Jul 2026

Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.