olivLaw · US equity research
Goosehead Insurance, Inc. GSHD
Insurance Agents, Brokers & Service · SIC 6411 · Vertical: Insurance Agents, Brokers & Service (SIC 6411)
Goosehead Insurance is an independent personal lines insurance agency in the United States that combines a proprietary quoting platform with a network of corporate and franchise agents. The company has grown quickly, with total written premium reaching 4.4 bn USD in 2025 and total revenue of 365.3 mn USD in the same year.
At the close of 04 Nov 2026, Goosehead Insurance, Inc. (GSHD) stock was 56.35 USD (+7.89% on the day), with market capitalisation 1.2 bn USD, P/E 54.2 on diluted EPS of 1.04 USD over the last 12 months, dividend yield 0.00%, beta 0.47, 52-week range 34.37–78.37 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q2 2026): revenue of 113.4 m USD (+20.6% YoY), net income of 10.1 m USD (+95.4% YoY).
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
Loading chart…
Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 66.5
- strong (55–70)
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 41.10 – 53.54
- above the upper band · %B 1.23 · band width 26.3%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 52.06 / 50.47
- uptrend (price > SMA50 > SMA200)
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- 0.54 / -0.81
- MACD above signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | S&P 500 | vs S&P 500 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | +22.0% | −1.1% | +23.1 pp | — |
| 3 months | −15.8% | −0.5% | −15.4 pp | — |
| 6 months | +37.2% | +4.4% | +32.8 pp | — |
| Year to date | −23.5% | +12.3% | −35.8 pp | — |
| 1 year | −15.4% | +13.5% | −29.0 pp | +0.8% |
| 3 years | −20.8% | +76.4% | −97.2 pp | +4.3% |
| 5 years | −61.1% | +63.7% | −124.8 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
Latest quarter: Q2 2026 · 30 Jun 2026
Quarterly margins
Quarterly statements · USD
| Fiscal year | Q3 '24 | Q4 '24 | Q1 '25 | Q2 '25 | Q3 '25 | Q4 '25 | Q1 '26 | Q2 '26 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 78.0 m | 93.9 m | 75.6 m | 94.0 m | 90.4 m | 105.3 m | 93.1 m | 113.4 m |
| Operating income | 16.4 m | 27.9 m | 6.6 m | 15.7 m | 21.3 m | 30.9 m | 15.0 m | 26.6 m |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 2.8 m ≈ | 2.4 m | 2.7 m | 2.9 m ≈ | 3.7 m ≈ | 1.9 m | 3.2 m | 3.5 m ≈ |
| Interest expense | 2.1 m | 1.8 m | 5.8 m | 6.3 m | 6.0 m | 5.7 m | 5.5 m | 5.7 m |
| Pre-tax income | 14.9 m | 24.7 m | 959.0 k | 10.2 m | 15.1 m | 24.6 m | 9.8 m | 21.1 m |
| Income tax | 2.3 m | 859.0 k | -1.7 m | 1.9 m | 2.4 m | 3.8 m | 1.7 m | 4.1 m |
| Net income | 7.6 m | 14.9 m | 2.3 m | 5.2 m | 7.9 m | 12.4 m | 4.9 m | 10.1 m |
| Diluted EPS | 0.29 | 0.39 ≈ | 0.09 | 0.18 | 0.29 | 0.33 ≈ | — | — |
| Operating cash flow | 28.1 m ≈ | 12.5 m | 15.5 m | 28.9 m ≈ | 24.2 m ≈ | 23.2 m | 22.9 m | 15.9 m ≈ |
| Capex | 110.0 k ≈ | 422.0 k | 579.0 k | 1.7 m ≈ | 477.0 k ≈ | 2.9 m | 1.6 m | 1.5 m ≈ |
| Dividends paid | 2.1 m ≈ | -4.5 m | 145.8 m | 0 ≈ | — | — | 0 | 0 ≈ |
| Share repurchases | 0 ≈ | 0 | 0 | 529.0 k ≈ | 57.7 m ≈ | 23.5 m | 49.8 m | 3.9 m ≈ |
≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Today's P/E sits at the 0 percentile of its own 27-quarter history (min 78.6, median 216.5, max 2,780.7; quarters with earnings only).
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 60.1 m | 77.5 m | 117.0 m | 151.3 m | 209.4 m | 261.3 m | 314.5 m | 365.3 m |
| Revenue YoY | +40.8% | +28.8% | +51.0% | +29.3% | +38.4% | +24.8% | +20.4% | +16.2% |
| Net income | -8.9 m | 3.6 m | 9.3 m | 5.4 m | 565.0 k | 14.1 m | 30.4 m | 27.8 m |
| Net income YoY | unavailable | unavailable | +160.4% | −41.8% | −89.5% | +2,402.7% | +115.2% | −8.5% |
| Diluted EPS | -0.66 | 0.22 | 0.51 | 0.26 | 0.03 | 0.55 | 1.16 | 1.04 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | unavailable | unavailable | +131.8% | −49.0% | −88.5% | +1,733.3% | +110.9% | −10.3% |
| net % | -14.8% | 4.6% | 7.9% | 3.6% | 0.3% | 5.4% | 9.7% | 7.6% |
| Free cash flow | 8.2 m | 17.5 m | 14.7 m | 22.7 m | 25.9 m | 46.4 m | 70.6 m | 86.1 m |
Reported results vs expectations
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Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025
- Cash
- 34.4 m USD
- Financial debt
- 292.5 m USD
- Net debt
- 258.1 m USD
- Equity
- -162.8 m USD
- Total assets
- 414.9 m USD
- Debt / equity
- unavailable
- Current ratio
- 1.60x
- ROE
- unavailable
- ROA
- 6.9%
- FCF margin
- 23.6%
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (USD)
Margins
Income statement · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 117.0 m | 151.3 m | 209.4 m | 261.3 m | 314.5 m | 365.3 m | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified |
| Operating income | 19.9 m | 8.7 m | 10.1 m | 33.0 m | 61.1 m | 74.4 m | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 3.6 m | 5.1 m | 7.1 m | 9.2 m | 10.5 m | 11.3 m | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified |
| EBITDA | 23.5 m ≈ | 13.8 m ≈ | 17.2 m ≈ | 42.2 m ≈ | 71.7 m ≈ | 85.7 m ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026derived |
| Interest expense | 2.3 m | 2.9 m | 5.0 m | 6.6 m | 7.3 m | 23.8 m | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified |
| Pre-tax income | 17.7 m | 6.0 m | 5.1 m | 26.4 m | 46.7 m | 50.8 m | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified |
| Income tax | -1.0 m | -2.3 m | 2.5 m | 2.7 m | -2.4 m | 6.4 m | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified |
| Net income | 9.3 m | 5.4 m | 565.0 k | 14.1 m | 30.4 m | 27.8 m | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | 0.51 | 0.26 | 0.03 | 0.55 | 1.16 | 1.04 | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified |
| Weighted average diluted shares | 18.4 m | 20.8 m | 21.8 m | 38.4 m | 38.3 m | 38.1 m | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating income + Depreciation & amortisation.
Balance sheet · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 24.9 m | 28.5 m | 28.7 m | 42.0 m | 54.3 m | 34.4 m | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified |
| Current assets | 50.6 m | 50.3 m | 54.1 m | 74.6 m | 108.6 m | 93.2 m | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | 16.7 m | 24.9 m | 35.3 m | 30.3 m | 24.1 m | 21.5 m | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified |
| Intangibles (excl. goodwill) | 549.0 k | 2.8 m | 4.5 m | 17.3 m | 25.1 m | 39.7 m | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified |
| Total assets | 185.8 m | 270.3 m | 321.4 m | 354.9 m | 397.7 m | 414.9 m | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified |
| Accounts payable | 8.1 m | 13.0 m | 16.0 m | 16.4 m | 22.9 m | 33.6 m | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified |
| Short-term debt | 3.5 m | 4.4 m | 6.9 m | 9.4 m | 10.1 m | 3.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified |
| Long-term debt | 79.4 m | 118.4 m | 86.7 m | 67.6 m | 82.3 m | 289.5 m | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified |
| Current liabilities | 20.4 m | 30.3 m | 37.1 m | 40.9 m | 46.5 m | 58.3 m | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified |
| Total liabilities | 224.2 m | 339.5 m | 355.0 m | 338.1 m | 358.6 m | 577.7 m | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified |
| Equity | -38.4 m | -69.2 m | -33.6 m | 16.8 m | 39.1 m | -162.8 m | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified |
Cash flow · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | 24.6 m | 35.4 m | 36.0 m | 50.8 m | 71.5 m | 91.8 m | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified |
| Capex | 10.0 m | 12.7 m | 10.1 m | 4.5 m | 979.0 k | 5.7 m | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified |
| Free cash flow | 14.7 m ≈ | 22.7 m ≈ | 25.9 m ≈ | 46.4 m ≈ | 70.6 m ≈ | 86.1 m ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026derived |
| Investing cash flow | -10.3 m | -15.4 m | -12.6 m | -19.2 m | -12.4 m | -23.5 m | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified |
| Financing cash flow | -3.3 m | -15.8 m | -23.6 m | -18.0 m | -45.2 m | -88.3 m | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified |
| Dividends paid | 44.7 m | 60.0 m | 0 | 0 | 0 | 145.8 m | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified |
| Share repurchases | — | — | 0 | 0 | 63.2 m | 81.7 m | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating cash flow − Capex.
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
Score: 71 / 100
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 1.2 bn USD
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
- Valuation62
- Balance sheet41
- Quality79
- Growth100
- Returns100
Estimated value range
The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 24.66 – 127.74 USD.
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Method ranges (USD per share)
— — Mid · ▏ Price
Valuation methods
- DCF (discounted cash flow)72.58 – 127.74 (Mid 93.18)WACC 8.4% · starting FCFF 98.6 m USD · terminal value share of EV 77%The WACC × g sensitivity gives the method's bounds; these are not probabilities.Reverse DCF: starting growth implied by the price (fading linearly to terminal growth, everything else fixed): -3.6%
- Peers: EV/EBITDA30.99 – 66.01 (Mid 53.40)3 companies used · median multiple 13.4x · quartiles 8.9x – 15.9xBWIN, MRSH, SLQT
- Peers: P/E24.66 – 71.77 (Mid 36.84)11 companies used · median multiple 22.1x · quartiles 14.8x – 43.0xACT, AJG, AON, BRO, CRVL, MRSH, RYAN, SLQT, TWFG, WDH, WTW
- Dividend discount (DDM)unavailable · input data missing
Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 4.3%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 9.3%
- Terminal growth
- 2.5%
Factor scorecard
Neutral profile · Score 71/100
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net margin · Quality | 8.8% | 59 (vs peers) | 7% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | 225.8% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 7% |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | 20.4% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 9% |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | 226.1% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 9% |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | 2.8x | 33 (vs peers) | 12% |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | 4.1x | 40 (on a fixed band) | 7% |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 1.5x | 62 (on a fixed band) | 5% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | 33.8x | 46 (vs peers) | 12% |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | 14.0x | 60 (vs peers) | 12% |
| FCF yield · Valuation | 6.7% | 84 (on a fixed band) | 9% |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | 11.3% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 7% |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | 0.0% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 5% |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet41/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
- Growth100/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
- Quality79/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
- Returns100/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
- Valuation62/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
Memo
GOOSEHEAD INSURANCE, INC. (GSHD). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2026-06-30.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 365.3 m USD in 2025; YoY growth 16.2%; net margin 8.8%; net debt/EBITDA 2.8x.
The estimated value range is 30.99–71.77 USD per share (median of 3 methods, agreement: low); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 53.40 USD, the price of 56.35 USD leaves a potential of -5.2% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of -5.5% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
olivLaw score 71/100, methodological classification: neutral profile (score, margin of safety and method agreement together; not a judgement of the right price). Not investment advice.
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- FCF conversion: 225.8%
- Revenue CAGR 3Y: 20.4%
- EPS CAGR 3Y: 226.1%
- FCF yield: 6.7%
- Shareholder yield (distributions): 11.3%
- Payout ratio (FCF): 0.0%
What contradicts it
- The valuation methods diverge
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): ROIC.
Versus the vertical median
Insurance Agents, Brokers & Service (SIC 6411) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 29 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MRSHMarsh & Mclennan Companies, Inc. | 100.0 bn | 25.2 | 26.7% | 14.2% | +10.3% | +15% / +5% |
| XHGXChange TEC.INC | 85.9 bn | — | — | -204.9% | +24.9% | +253% / −100% |
| AJGArthur J. Gallagher & Co. | 73.9 bn | 47.1 | 6.7% | 10.0% | +20.7% | +16% / +16% |
| AONAon plc | 73.1 bn | 18.9 | 43.6% | 22.2% | +9.4% | −3% / +5% |
| WTWWillis Towers Watson PLC | 31.1 bn | 20.5 | 20.2% | 15.2% | −2.2% | +5% / +37% |
| BROBrown & Brown, Inc. | 24.5 bn | 22.1 | 9.7% | 17.6% | +22.8% | −8% / −1% |
| EQHEquitable Holdings, Inc. | 15.3 bn | — | -508.8% | -8.7% | −6.1% | +20% / +83% |
| AIFUAIFU Inc. | 10.5 bn | — | -155.9% | -408.8% | −67.9% | −84% / −100% |
| ACTEnact Holdings, Inc. | 6.6 bn | 10.7 | 12.7% | 53.8% | +2.8% | +25% / +74% |
| HGTYHagerty, Inc. | 6.5 bn | 108.0 | 25.6% | 4.4% | +17.3% | +40% / +121% |
| RYANRyan Specialty Holdings, Inc. | 5.2 bn | 49.9 | 19.4% | 3.2% | +21.3% | −18% / +4% |
| CRVLCorvel Corporation | 4.4 bn | 38.9 | 30.7% | 11.7% | +7.0% | +19% / +26% |
| WDHWaterdrop Inc. | 3.6 bn | 50.5 | 11.6% | 14.2% | +49.8% | −44% / −16% |
| ARXAccelerant Holdings | 3.3 bn | — | -241.6% | -112.1% | +51.5% | +36% / unavailable |
| NPNeptune Insurance Holdings Inc. | 2.7 bn | 91.6 | — | 22.7% | +33.7% | +22% / unavailable |
| GSHDGoosehead Insurance, Inc. | 1.2 bn | 33.8 | — | 8.8% | +16.2% | −15% / −21% |
| HUIZHuize Holding Limited | 1.1 bn | — | 1.0% | 0.3% | +32.2% | −31% / −48% |
| BWINThe Baldwin Insurance Group, Inc. | 1.1 bn | — | -10.7% | -4.7% | +8.3% | +13% / +84% |
| RDZNRoadzen Inc. | 92.8 m | — | — | -46.9% | +24.2% | −37% / −78% |
| SLQTSelectQuote, Inc. | 88.1 m | 7.3 | 23.4% | 4.6% | +6.0% | −66% / −61% |
| EHTHeHealth, Inc | 20.3 m | — | 5.0% | 5.4% | +4.1% | −84% / −91% |
| EZRAReliance Global Group, Inc. | 2.4 m | — | -123.4% | -54.3% | −11.6% | −91% / −100% |
| YBYuanbao Inc. | — | — | 152.7% | 29.9% | +33.1% | −43% / unavailable |
| CCGCheche Group Inc. | — | — | -5.0% | -0.6% | −13.3% | +751% / +6% |
| HITHealth In Tech, Inc. | — | — | -21.9% | -12.0% | +71.0% | −61% / unavailable |
1- and 3-year price returns: for GSHD from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (USD)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | 36.82 Total return -35% · Per year -35% | 64.80 Total return 15% · Per year 15% | 97.20 Total return 73% · Per year 73% |
| 3 years | 43.68 Total return -22% · Per year -8% | 85.70 Total return 52% · Per year 15% | 139.97 Total return 148% · Per year 35% |
| 5 years | 51.81 Total return -8% · Per year -2% | 113.34 Total return 101% · Per year 15% | 201.56 Total return 258% · Per year 29% |
- Exit P/E± 21.43
- Net margin± 15.00
- Annual revenue growth± 11.19
- Annual dilution± 1.26
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
In brief
Goosehead Insurance is an independent personal lines insurance agency in the United States that combines a proprietary quoting platform with a network of corporate and franchise agents. The company has grown quickly, with total written premium reaching 4.4 bn USD in 2025 and total revenue of 365.3 mn USD in the same year.
SWOT
Strengths
- A proprietary technology platform and a network of over 200 carriers allow fast comparison of offers and a quoting experience that can be completed in minutes 1.
- Separating sales from service and running a centralized service team support high client retention and free agents' time for new business 13.
- Renewal revenue, which is more predictable and carries higher margins, grows its share of the total as the in-force book expands 2.
Weaknesses
- The company depends on a limited number of carriers for a significant part of its commissions, and losing a major partner could reduce revenue 1.
- Personnel and technology costs have grown faster than revenue in some periods, which can weigh on operating margins 3.
- Revenue is sensitive to the insurance premium cycle and the housing market, and contingent commissions remain hard to forecast 12.
Opportunities
- Expanding the corporate and franchise network into markets with still limited coverage could increase the volume of premiums placed 1.
- If the quoting technology extends to more product lines, the company could capture additional clients without a proportional rise in costs 1.
- If insuretech carriers continue working with distributors, the company could add new products to its portfolio 2.
Threats
- A slowdown in the housing market or high interest rates could reduce the number of new clients arriving through home transactions 1.
- A softening of the insurance market could reduce premiums and commissions, directly affecting revenue 1.
- Extreme weather events could change carrier loss ratios and therefore the contingent commissions the company receives 13.
Risks
- Concentration on a few carriershigh
A significant part of commissions comes from a limited number of insurers. If the relationship with one of them deteriorates, revenue could fall quickly 1.
- Dependence on the housing marketmedium
Most new clients come from home transactions, and changes in interest rates could slow this source of business 1.
- Clawback of commissionsmedium
Carriers may seek repayment of commissions on policy lapse or cancellation, which could create unexpected expenses 1.
- Technology and security risksmedium
A cyberattack or a system outage could affect client retention and relationships with partners 1.
- Dependence on the franchise networklow
Results depend on franchise operators, whom the company does not control directly. A decline in operating units could affect growth 12.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- Growth in written premium and policies in force, combined with high client retention, could sustain recurring revenue over the long term 23.
- Contingent commissions rose visibly in 2026, and if carrier loss results remain favorable, this source could add material revenue 2.
- Growth in corporate agents and the productivity of agents with longer tenure could accelerate new business volume 12.
What would break the thesis
- The number of operating franchises has declined in recent quarters, which could signal difficulty in recruiting and keeping operators 12.
- Personnel and technology costs could grow faster than core revenue, which could limit margin expansion 23.
- Revenue depends on the premium cycle and the housing market, and a slowdown in either could quickly affect new volumes 1.
What to watch
- Trend in the number of operating franchises and network agentsQ3 2026
- Growth rate of total written premium and contingent commissionsQ3 2026
- Client retention rate and the evolution of personnel and technology costsnext 10-K
- Updates to 2026 guidance for total revenue and written premiumQ3 2026
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
The business
Goosehead presents itself as an independent agency distributing personal lines products such as home and auto insurance through its own quoting platform, Digital Agent. The company works with over 200 carriers and separates sales from client service, so agents can focus on selling while a centralized team handles policies and renewals 1.
The business model rests on three complementary channels: corporate sales through company-owned offices, franchise sales where local entrepreneurs operate under license and pay initial and royalty fees, and enterprise relationships. Revenue comes mainly from renewal commissions and royalties, new business commissions, while contingent commissions are ancillary and less predictable 1.
The structure is a holding company that holds a majority interest in Goosehead Financial, LLC, through which all business is conducted. A tax receivable agreement requires payments of 85% of realized tax savings to pre-IPO LLC members, a point relevant to reading cash flows 1.
Segments
Franchise sales
Franchises form the backbone of the distribution network and are run by local owners who use the company's processes, carrier appointments and back-office support. The number of operating franchises has declined in recent quarters while total franchise agents have grown slightly, suggesting a smaller but more productive network per unit 12.
Market context
The company operates in the US personal lines insurance market, where the company cites independent agents as the channel consumers still prefer. Growth in written premium and policies in force suggests an expanding market for independent distributors 12.
Volumes depend on the housing market, since most new clients arrive through referral partners tied to home closings. High interest rates and monetary policy can affect this source of clients, and the cyclicality of insurance premiums directly shapes commissions 1.
Trends
- Growth in premiums and policies in forcetailwind
Written premium and policies in force grew in both reported periods, which supports core renewal revenue. If this pace is sustained, it could support revenue growth over the medium term 23.
- Cyclicality of insurance pricingheadwind
Commissions are calculated as a percentage of the insurance premium, which depends on market cycles. A softening market or lower commission rates requested by carriers could directly reduce revenue 1.
- Dependence on the housing marketmixed
A large share of new clients comes from home transactions, so a slowdown in housing could affect new policy placements. The effect also depends on the path of interest rates 1.
- Expansion of quoting technologymixed
The Digital Agent platform and carrier integrations may reduce quoting time and improve close rates, supporting agent productivity. However, technology and general costs grew faster than revenue in the first half of 2026 23.
Competitive position
Goosehead competes with other independent agents and brokers, as well as captive agencies tied to a single carrier. The company argues its advantage lies in choice across many carriers, its proprietary technology and the separation of sales from service 1.
Competitive pressure could also come from insuretech carriers that distribute directly to consumers, although the company says many of them now work with it. The intensity of competition could affect close rates and client retention 1.
- Other independent personal lines agents and brokers
Competitors offering product choice and advisory services, not necessarily with the same technology or franchise model.
- Captive agencies tied to a single carrier
Agencies selling the products of one insurer, which the company seeks to attract by offering its distribution model.
- Direct-to-consumer platforms of insuretech carriers
Carriers distributing without an agent, which could reduce demand for intermediated channels if their model expands.
- Large national brokerage networks
Larger organizations with more capital and resources, competing for the same clients and carrier partners.
Links, dependencies and risks
Who the company is tied to, from its own SEC filings (customers, suppliers, production, partners, competitors, countries, regulation), from the 5 %+ holders' statements (13D/13G) and from what other companies say about it. Click a node for its evidence; on a listed company the graph moves to it.
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News & filings
In the press
No news in our archive over the last 180 days.
SEC filings
- Quarterly report23 Jul 2026
- Current report22 Jul 2026Results of operations · Departure or appointment of officers · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report14 Jul 2026Material agreement · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report04 May 2026Shareholder vote
- Quarterly report23 Apr 2026
- Current report22 Apr 2026Results of operations · Departure or appointment of officers · Other events · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report (amendment)08 Apr 2026Departure or appointment of officers
- Current report31 Mar 2026Departure or appointment of officers · Other events · Financial statements and exhibits
- Proxy statement25 Mar 2026
- Annual report19 Feb 2026
Sources
- [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · SEC / Goosehead Insurance, Inc. · 19 Feb 2026
- [2] Form 10-Q, quarter ended 2026-06-30 · SEC / Goosehead Insurance, Inc. · 23 Jul 2026
- [3] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / Goosehead Insurance, Inc. · 22 Jul 2026
Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.