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olivLaw · US equity research

Neptune Insurance Holdings Inc. NP

Insurance Agents, Brokers & Service · SIC 6411 · Vertical: Insurance Agents, Brokers & Service (SIC 6411)

28.55USD−2.39% · 1 dayClose 04 Nov 2026

Neptune is a data-driven MGA that distributes flood insurance through US agencies without taking balance sheet risk, transferring it to capacity providers. The company reported revenue of 159.6 million USD in 2025, at a time when NFIP, its main competitor, is reshaping its pricing through Risk Rating 2.0.

At the close of 04 Nov 2026, Neptune Insurance Holdings Inc. (NP) stock was 28.55 USD (−2.39% on the day), with market capitalisation 2.7 bn USD, P/E 91.6 on diluted EPS of 0.31 USD over the last 12 months, dividend yield 0.00%, beta 0.19, 52-week range 17.14–35.11 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q3 2026): revenue of 59.6 m USD (+34.3% YoY), net income of 17.3 m USD (+49.9% YoY), diluted EPS 0.12 USD.

Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.

Market cap
2.7 bn USD
shares as of 30 Sept 2025
P/E (TTM)
91.6
Diluted EPS TTM 0.31 · TTM to 30 Sept 2026
E/P (TTM)
1.09%
TTM to 30 Sept 2026
Dividend yield
0.00%
Beta (2y)
0.19
Volatility (1y) 60%
52-week range
17.1435.11

Price history

Loading chart…

Technical reading

RSI (14)
45.6
neutral
Bollinger (20, 2)
28.14 – 29.80
in the lower half of the band · %B 0.25 · band width 5.7%
SMA 50 / 200
29.69 / 27.51
mixed trend
MACD (12, 26, 9)
-0.05 / -0.12
MACD above signal

Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).

Performance

CompanyS&P 500vs S&P 500Vertical median
1 month+5.3%−1.1%+6.4 pp—
3 months−13.0%−0.5%−12.5 pp—
6 months+14.3%+4.4%+9.9 pp—
Year to date−2.1%+12.3%−14.4 pp—
1 year+12.3%+13.5%−1.2 pp−3.9%
3 yearsunavailable+76.4%unavailable+3.6%
5 yearsunavailable+63.7%unavailable—
Max drawdown (1y)
−43.8%
24 Dec 2025 → 12 Feb 2026
Max drawdown (5y)
−43.8%
24 Dec 2025 → 12 Feb 2026
Compound annual growth (5y)
unavailable
S&P 500 +10.4%

Price returns, dividends excluded.

Quarterly results

Latest quarter: Q3 2026 · 30 Sept 2026

Revenue
59.6 m USD
+34.3% YoY
Net income
17.3 m USD
+49.9% YoY
Diluted EPS
0.12
+100.0% YoY
net / operating
29.0% / 46.9%

Quarterly margins

Quarterly statements · USD

Fiscal yearQ4 '24Q1 '25Q2 '25Q3 '25Q4 '25Q1 '26Q2 '26Q3 '26
Revenue31.5 m29.4 m42.1 m44.4 m43.8 m37.8 m55.9 m59.6 m
Operating income18.4 m15.6 m21.3 m20.7 m13.3 m13.4 m26.6 m28.0 m
Depreciation & amortisation———948.0 k————
Interest expense3.1 m2.4 m5.9 m5.5 m4.5 m3.5 m3.6 m3.6 m
Pre-tax income15.5 m13.4 m15.7 m15.5 m9.1 m10.1 m23.2 m24.7 m
Income tax3.9 m3.5 m4.0 m4.0 m4.8 m2.7 m7.4 m7.5 m
Net income11.6 m9.9 m11.6 m11.5 m4.3 m7.3 m15.8 m17.3 m
Diluted EPS0.12 ≈0.05-0.490.060.03 ≈0.050.110.12
Operating cash flow14.7 m14.3 m8.6 m ≈16.0 m ≈12.8 m16.7 m26.7 m ≈25.9 m ≈
Dividends paid———0 ≈0——0 ≈
Share repurchases———0 ≈———4.0 k ≈

≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)

E/P over time

E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.

Today's P/E sits at the 50 percentile of its own 2-quarter history (min 87.8, median 106.5, max 125.2; quarters with earnings only).

Fiscal years

Fiscal year202320242025
Revenue84.9 m119.3 m159.6 m
Revenue YoYunavailable+40.6%+33.7%
Net income17.9 m34.6 m37.4 m
Net income YoYunavailable+93.4%+8.2%
Diluted EPS0.100.16-0.26
Diluted EPS YoYunavailable+60.0%−262.5%
net %21.1%29.0%23.4%
Free cash flowunavailableunavailableunavailable

Reported results vs expectations

Loading…

Balance sheet & financial health

Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025

Cash
8.0 m USD
Financial debt
0 USD
Net debt
-8.0 m USD
Equity
-227.5 m USD
Total assets
65.3 m USD
Debt / equity
unavailable
Current ratio
0.99x
ROE
unavailable
ROA
66.0%
FCF margin
unavailable

Financial statements (source on every figure)

Revenue and net income (USD)

Margins

Income statement · USD

Revenue
2023
84.9 m
2024
119.3 m
2025
159.6 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Operating income
2023
45.4 m
2024
68.4 m
2025
71.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Interest expense
2023
21.3 m
2024
17.5 m
2025
18.2 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Pre-tax income
2023
23.9 m
2024
46.4 m
2025
53.6 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Income tax
2023
6.0 m
2024
11.8 m
2025
16.2 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Net income
2023
17.9 m
2024
34.6 m
2025
37.4 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Diluted EPS
2023
0.10
2024
0.16
2025
-0.26

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Weighted average diluted shares
2023
93.5 m
2024
93.4 m
2025
104.5 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Balance sheet · USD

Cash
2023
24.3 m
2024
7.1 m
2025
8.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Current assets
2023
—
2024
35.2 m
2025
52.5 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Goodwill
2023
—
2024
3.8 m
2025
3.8 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Intangibles (excl. goodwill)
2023
—
2024
476.0 k
2025
466.0 k

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Total assets
2023
—
2024
48.2 m
2025
65.3 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Accounts payable
2023
—
2024
7.2 m
2025
10.1 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Short-term debt
2023
—
2024
8.6 m
2025
0

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Long-term debt
2023
—
2024
125.1 m
2025
0

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Current liabilities
2023
—
2024
48.6 m
2025
52.8 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Total liabilities
2023
—
2024
173.7 m
2025
292.8 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Equity
2023
-387.6 m †
2024
-366.0 m †
2025
-227.5 m †

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Cash flow · USD

Operating cash flow
2023
18.6 m
2024
49.9 m
2025
51.7 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Investing cash flow
2023
-4.0 m
2024
-3.7 m
2025
-4.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Financing cash flow
2023
-9.9 m
2024
-42.5 m
2025
-35.2 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Dividends paid
2023
339.0 m
2024
0
2025
175.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Computed indicators

Growth

Revenue growth (YoY)
33.7%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Revenue CAGR 3Y
unavailable
input data missing
Revenue CAGR 5Y
unavailable
input data missing
EBIT growth (YoY)
3.7%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Net income growth (YoY)
8.2%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Net income CAGR 3Y
unavailable
input data missing
Net income CAGR 5Y
unavailable
input data missing
EPS growth (YoY)
-262.5%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
EPS CAGR 3Y
unavailable
input data missing
EPS CAGR 5Y
unavailable
input data missing
FCF growth (YoY)
unavailable
input data missing

Profitability

Gross margin
unavailable
input data missing
EBITDA margin
unavailable
input data missing
EBIT margin
41.3%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Net margin
22.7%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
FCF margin
unavailable
input data missing

Returns

ROE
unavailable
equity is negative: the ratio is not economically meaningful (not by itself insolvency; usually the result of buybacks)
ROA
46.2%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
ROIC
unavailable
equity is negative: buybacks shrink the invested capital and ROIC would come out large without meaning anything
ROCE
2,388.9%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Payout ratio (EPS)
unavailable
input data missing
Payout ratio (FCF)
unavailable
input data missing

Balance sheet

Net debt
unavailable
input data missing
Net debt / EBITDA
unavailable
input data missing
Debt / equity
unavailable
input data missing
Interest coverage
5.4x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026

Liquidity

Current ratio
0.9x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Quick ratio
unavailable
input data missing
Cash ratio
0.2x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026

Cash

Operating cash flow
82.0 m USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Capital expenditure
unavailable
input data missing
Free cash flow
unavailable
input data missing
FCF conversion
unavailable
input data missing
Cash conversion
unavailable
input data missing

Efficiency

Days sales outstanding
unavailable
input data missing
Days inventory outstanding
unavailable
input data missing
Days payables outstanding
unavailable
input data missing
Cash conversion cycle
unavailable
input data missing

Market and valuation

Market capitalisation
2.7 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Enterprise value
unavailable
input data missing
Market cap / net income TTM
61.4x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
P/E (TTM)
91.6x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Earnings yield
1.1%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
P/B
unavailable
equity is negative: the ratio is not economically meaningful (not by itself insolvency; usually the result of buybacks)
P/S
13.9x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
EV/EBITDA
unavailable
input data missing
EV/EBIT
unavailable
input data missing
EV/Sales
unavailable
input data missing
P/FCF
unavailable
input data missing
FCF yield
unavailable
input data missing
Dividend yield
0.0%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Shareholder yield (distributions)
0.0%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026

1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.

Valuation

olivLaw classification

Insufficient data
What is missing
  • indicators available: 5 of at least 6
  • score weight coverage: 33.3% of at least 60%

A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.

Closing price

28.55 USD

04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series

Market cap: 2.7 bn USD

Key indicators

Market capitalisation
2.7 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
P/E (TTM)
91.6x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
P/B
unavailable
equity is negative: the ratio is not economically meaningful (not by itself insolvency; usually the result of buybacks)
EV/EBITDA
unavailable
input data missing
ROE
unavailable
equity is negative: the ratio is not economically meaningful (not by itself insolvency; usually the result of buybacks)
Net margin
22.7%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Revenue growth (YoY)
33.7%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Dividend yield
0.0%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026

Coverage and freshness

23/37 reporting lines present
Latest full fiscal year: 2025
Latest reported period: 30 Sept 2026
Latest balance sheet date: 30 Sept 2026
Source: SEC (XBRL)published 22 Oct 2026
verified 263derived 19

Score by group

33% · Insufficient data

Estimated value range

Low
5.24
USD per share
Mid
7.36
USD per share
High
12.76
USD per share
Price: 28.55 USD
The price is above the range
Potential to the central value: -74.2% (value / price − 1)
Margin of safety: -287.8% (1 − price / value)
Agreement between methods: single method · 1 methods used · 1 independent bases

The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 5.24 – 12.76 USD.

Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.

Method ranges (USD per share)

— — Mid · ▏ Price

Valuation methods

  • DCF (discounted cash flow)unavailable · input data missing
  • Peers: EV/EBITDAunavailable · net debt missing: EV cannot be bridged to equity (missing debt is not zero)
  • Peers: P/E5.24 – 12.76 (Mid 7.36)
    12 companies used · median multiple 23.6x · quartiles 16.8x – 41.0x
    ACT, AJG, AON, BRO, CRVL, GSHD, MRSH, RYAN, SLQT, TWFG, WDH, WTW
  • Dividend discount (DDM)unavailable · input data missing
Multiple comparisons use the SIC vertical: Insurance Agents, Brokers & Service (SIC 6411)

Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.

Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)

Risk-free rate
4.3%
Equity risk premium
5.0%
Beta (default)
1.00
Cost of equity
9.3%
Terminal growth
2.5%

Factor scorecard

Insufficient data

Minimum-evidence gate: indicators available: 5 of at least 6; score weight coverage: 33.3% of at least 60%

FactorValueScoreWeight used
ROIC · Qualityunavailableunavailable—
Net margin · Quality22.7%93 (vs peers)19%
FCF conversion · Qualityunavailableunavailable—
Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growthunavailableunavailable—
EPS CAGR 3Y · Growthunavailableunavailable—
Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheetunavailableunavailable—
Interest coverage · Balance sheet5.4x59 (on a fixed band)19%
Current ratio · Balance sheet0.9x9 (on a fixed band)13%
P/E (TTM) · Valuation91.6x8 (vs peers)31%
EV/EBITDA · Valuationunavailableunavailable—
FCF yield · Valuationunavailableunavailable—
Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns0.0%0 (on a fixed band)19%
Payout ratio (FCF) · Returnsunavailableunavailable—

Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.

Score groups

  • Balance sheet39/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
  • Growth· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
  • Quality· partial93/100 · 1/3 factors with a value
  • Returns· partial0/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
  • Valuation· partial8/100 · 1/3 factors with a value

A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.

Memo

Neptune Insurance Holdings Inc. (NP). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2026-09-30.

Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 159.6 m USD in 2025; YoY growth 33.7%; net margin 22.7%.

The estimated value range is 5.24–12.76 USD per share (median of 1 methods, agreement: single method); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 7.36 USD, the price of 28.55 USD leaves a potential of -74.2% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of -287.8% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.

Insufficient data for a verdict (indicators available: 5 of at least 6; score weight coverage: 33.3% of at least 60%).

Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.

What supports the thesis

  • Net margin: 22.7%

What contradicts it

  • Current ratio: 0.9x
  • P/E (TTM): 91.6x
  • Shareholder yield (distributions): 0.0%
  • The price is above the estimated value range

Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): ROIC, FCF conversion, Revenue CAGR 3Y, EPS CAGR 3Y, Net debt / EBITDA, EV/EBITDA, FCF yield, Payout ratio (FCF).

Versus the vertical median

Insurance Agents, Brokers & Service (SIC 6411) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 29 companies

Multiples and returns vs the median

P/E
91.6x
vertical median 25.2x
above median (+263.8%)
EV/EBITDA
—
vertical median 16.2x
P/S
13.9x
vertical median 3.3x
above median (+326.1%)
P/B
—
vertical median 4.3x
ROE
—
vertical median 10.7%
Net margin
22.7%
vertical median 4.4%
above median (+420.6%)
EBIT margin
41.3%
vertical median 6.9%
above median (+500.7%)
Revenue YoY
33.7%
vertical median 16.2%
above median (+108.9%)
Net debt/EBITDA
—
vertical median -0.9x
Dividend yield
0.0%
vertical median 1.1%
below median (−100.0%)

Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)

Companies in the vertical

Market capP/EROENet marginRevenue YoY1A / 3A
MRSHMarsh & Mclennan Companies, Inc.100.0 bn25.226.7%14.2%+10.3%+15% / +5%
XHGXChange TEC.INC85.9 bn——-204.9%+24.9%+253% / −100%
AJGArthur J. Gallagher & Co.73.9 bn47.16.7%10.0%+20.7%+16% / +16%
AONAon plc73.1 bn18.943.6%22.2%+9.4%−3% / +5%
WTWWillis Towers Watson PLC31.1 bn20.520.2%15.2%−2.2%+5% / +37%
BROBrown & Brown, Inc.24.5 bn22.19.7%17.6%+22.8%−8% / −1%
EQHEquitable Holdings, Inc.15.3 bn—-508.8%-8.7%−6.1%+20% / +83%
AIFUAIFU Inc.10.5 bn—-155.9%-408.8%−67.9%−84% / −100%
ACTEnact Holdings, Inc.6.6 bn10.712.7%53.8%+2.8%+25% / +74%
HGTYHagerty, Inc.6.5 bn108.025.6%4.4%+17.3%+40% / +121%
RYANRyan Specialty Holdings, Inc.5.2 bn49.919.4%3.2%+21.3%−18% / +4%
CRVLCorvel Corporation4.4 bn38.930.7%11.7%+7.0%+19% / +26%
WDHWaterdrop Inc.3.6 bn50.511.6%14.2%+49.8%−44% / −16%
ARXAccelerant Holdings3.3 bn—-241.6%-112.1%+51.5%+36% / unavailable
NPNeptune Insurance Holdings Inc.2.7 bn91.6—22.7%+33.7%+12% / unavailable
GSHDGoosehead Insurance, Inc.1.2 bn33.8—8.8%+16.2%−21% / −23%
HUIZHuize Holding Limited1.1 bn—1.0%0.3%+32.2%−31% / −48%
BWINThe Baldwin Insurance Group, Inc.1.1 bn—-10.7%-4.7%+8.3%+13% / +84%
RDZNRoadzen Inc.92.8 m——-46.9%+24.2%−37% / −78%
SLQTSelectQuote, Inc.88.1 m7.323.4%4.6%+6.0%−66% / −61%
EHTHeHealth, Inc20.3 m—5.0%5.4%+4.1%−84% / −91%
EZRAReliance Global Group, Inc.2.4 m—-123.4%-54.3%−11.6%−91% / −100%
YBYuanbao Inc.——152.7%29.9%+33.1%−43% / unavailable
ERIEErie Indemnity Company——23.7%14.0%+7.2%−5% / −5%
HITHealth In Tech, Inc.——-21.9%-12.0%+71.0%−61% / unavailable

1- and 3-year price returns: for NP from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.

olivLaw engine forecast

The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.

The engine has no published run for this company yet.

Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)

Illustrative scenarios

Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.

Bear
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Base
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Bull
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Nothing is saved.

Estimated price (USD)

Estimated priceBearBaseBull
1 years
27.86
Total return -2% · Per year -2%
49.02
Total return 72% · Per year 72%
73.53
Total return 158% · Per year 158%
3 years
33.04
Total return 16% · Per year 5%
64.83
Total return 127% · Per year 31%
105.89
Total return 271% · Per year 55%
5 years
39.19
Total return 37% · Per year 7%
85.74
Total return 200% · Per year 25%
152.48
Total return 434% · Per year 40%
What moves the 3-year price the most
  • Exit P/E± 16.21
  • Net margin± 11.35
  • Annual revenue growth± 8.46
  • Annual dilution± 0.95

AI analysis

AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

In brief

Neptune is a data-driven MGA that distributes flood insurance through US agencies without taking balance sheet risk, transferring it to capacity providers. The company reported revenue of 159.6 million USD in 2025, at a time when NFIP, its main competitor, is reshaping its pricing through Risk Rating 2.0.

SWOT

Strengths

  • The company relies on an automated underwriting model whose written loss ratio is reported as better than the NFIP, and its accumulated proprietary data gives it an early-mover advantage.
  • High margins and recurring commission revenue, combined with no balance sheet risk, give the company an efficient operating structure.
  • The agency network and API integrations reduce friction in the sales process, supporting distribution growth.

Weaknesses

  • Because the company does not assume balance sheet risk, it depends on the availability and terms offered by capacity providers, which can amend agreements unilaterally.
  • Distribution depends heavily on a relatively concentrated set of agents and brokers, and losing key relationships could affect sales volume.
  • The drop in renewal retention in 2026 suggests that higher prices may lead some policyholders to leave.

Opportunities

  • Removing NFIP subsidies could move part of the existing policyholder base to the company, especially in areas where the real risk is high.
  • Low flood insurance penetration leaves a large uncovered market, and expansion into new geographies or risk types could add growth.
  • A larger capacity provider panel could allow better terms and greater diversification of risk.

Threats

  • Competition from private providers using AI could erode the technology advantage and put pressure on prices.
  • A major catastrophic event could weaken the finances of capacity providers, affecting the capacity available to the company.
  • New AI regulations could raise compliance costs and limit how the company uses its technology.

Risks

  • Dependence on capacity providershigh

    Agreements with providers can be terminated or amended on short notice, and if key relationships deteriorate, the company could lose the ability to issue or renew policies.

  • Dependence on agents and brokershigh

    If agents prioritize competing products, sales volume could fall, and misconduct by some agents could create liability and sanctions.

  • Catastrophic riskmedium

    Extreme weather can affect many policies at once and weaken capacity providers, which could limit the company's growth.

  • AI regulationmedium

    A changing legal framework could impose standards and costs, and new interpretations of existing laws could affect how the company uses AI.

  • Sensitivity to the housing marketlow

    A decline in home sales or new construction, or higher interest rates, could slow the sale of policies tied to mortgage requirements.

Investment thesis

What would need to be true (bull case)

  • Revenue and profit growth in the third quarter of 2026, with an Adjusted EBITDA margin of 62%, show that the business model can scale efficiently 3.
  • If the NFIP reform reduces the advantage of subsidized prices, the company could win existing policyholders thanks to its accumulated data.
  • A growing number of capacity providers and high renewal of committed capacity suggest confidence in the underwriting performance.

What would break the thesis

  • The drop in renewal retention in 2026 could signal sensitivity to higher prices and a risk of losing policyholders.
  • Dependence on capacity providers and external agents limits the company's control over its own growth.
  • If AI tools become accessible to competitors, the company's technology advantage could narrow.

What to watch

  • Trend in policy renewal retention after premium increasesQ4 2026
  • Number of capacity providers and commission terms negotiated2027
  • Effects of the NFIP Risk Rating 2.0 reform on sales volume2027
  • Company guidance and revenue figures in the next quarterly reportQ1 2027

Products, market & competition

AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

The business

Neptune Insurance Holdings Inc. (NYSE: NP), the parent of Neptune Flood Incorporated, is an MGA that underwrites and administers residential and commercial policies, including primary and excess flood insurance and parametric earthquake insurance. The company does not bear balance sheet risk or handle claims, which are assumed by a network of capacity providers that numbered 40 as of December 31, 2025. Its revenue model consists of commissions, calculated as a negotiated percentage of each policy premium and paid by capacity providers, plus fees paid by policyholders. In fiscal 2025 it generated 159.6 million USD in revenue and 37.4 million USD in net income 1.

Technology is the basis of the model: the Triton underwriting platform, which has no human underwriters and processes over 20,000 quotes on a typical day, and the Poseidon policy management system, both built in-house. The proprietary database, generated from the company's quotes, policies and losses, is described as the largest flood insurance sales and claims database outside the NFIP. Distribution relies on agency partnerships that value instant quotes and API integrations, and agent and broker partners drove over 96% of policy sales in 2025 1.

Segments

Primary and excess flood insurance

The core products are primary and excess policies for homes and commercial buildings, distributed through US agencies. Growth in this segment depends on demand driven by major weather events and on the ability to attract NFIP policyholders facing higher prices.

Parametric earthquake insurance

The parametric earthquake product complements the core offer, but the available sources do not detail its contribution to revenue, so its financial role remains unclear.

Market context

The US flood insurance market is dominated by NFIP, which insured approximately 3.6 million properties as of December 31, 2025 and collected approximately 5.5 billion USD in total policy cost 1. The company estimates that only a small share of the more than 100 million US buildings is covered, and residential penetration in high-risk states is just 11% 1. According to the company, the Risk Rating 2.0 reform could move part of the NFIP base toward private alternatives.

The market is also shaped by reinsurance pressure, as property catastrophe reinsurance prices rose and terms tightened after 2023, and by a rapidly changing AI regulatory framework. Both could influence the cost and availability of capacity for the company.

Trends

  • NFIP Risk Rating 2.0 reformtailwind

    As subsidies phase out, the gap between NFIP rates and actual risk could narrow, which could make Neptune's offer more competitive for part of the existing policyholder base.

  • Intensifying weather eventstailwind

    Hurricanes and severe flooding can raise awareness and demand for insurance, and areas currently seen as low-risk could become more attractive for the company's products.

  • Pressure on reinsurance capacityheadwind

    If reinsurers raise prices or reduce their exposure, capacity providers could demand lower commissions or tighter conditions, which would weigh on the company's margins.

  • AI regulationmixed

    A fast-evolving legal framework for AI may impose additional standards and compliance costs, but it could also narrow the company's technology edge if such tools become more accessible to competitors.

Competitive position

The main competitor is NFIP, a government program that holds most of the flood insurance market and which the company describes as cumbersome for agents and policyholders 1. Competition also comes from new private entrants, and the company warns that advances in AI and AGI could lower barriers to entry. Its advantage rests on accumulated data and on being the first scaled private flood platform 1.

Distribution agents may prioritize NFIP or other private providers if these offer better prices or commissions, which could reduce the company's policy volume. The company relies on tens of thousands of agents to mitigate this risk 1.

  • National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP)

    US government program and the main flood insurance provider, with historically subsidized prices; the Risk Rating 2.0 reform is changing its pricing structure.

  • New private flood insurance entrants

    Companies that could use AI and AGI technologies to replicate the platform's capabilities, reducing its competitive edge.

  • Agents and brokers offering alternatives

    Distributors that may choose NFIP or other providers based on commissions, prices or support.

  • Reinsurers and capacity providers

    Not direct competitors, but they influence the cost and availability of capacity, and some may reduce their flood risk exposure.

News & filings

In the press

SEC filings

Sources

  1. [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · SEC / Neptune Insurance Holdings Inc. · 26 Feb 2026
  2. [2] Form 10-Q, quarter ended 2026-09-30 · SEC / Neptune Insurance Holdings Inc. · 22 Oct 2026
  3. [3] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / Neptune Insurance Holdings Inc. · 20 Oct 2026

Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.