olivLaw · US equity research
Accelerant Holdings ARX
Insurance Agents, Brokers & Service · SIC 6411 · Vertical: Insurance Agents, Brokers & Service (SIC 6411)
Accelerant Holdings (ARX) runs a risk exchange that links specialty insurance underwriters with risk capital providers, earning fixed fees on premium written. The company has grown quickly, but in August 2026 it announced a merger that would take it private at 20.25 USD per share in cash, changing the investment picture.
At the close of 04 Nov 2026, Accelerant Holdings (ARX) stock was 19.85 USD (+0.20% on the day), with market capitalisation 3.3 bn USD, beta 0.19, 52-week range 9.36–19.88 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q2 2026): revenue of 356.9 m USD (+62.9% YoY), net income of 80.0 m USD (+809.1% YoY), diluted EPS 0.36 USD.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
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Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 69.1
- strong (55–70)
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 19.73 – 19.85
- in the upper half of the band · %B 0.99 · band width 0.6%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 19.75 / 14.92
- uptrend (price > SMA50 > SMA200)
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- 0.14 / 0.19
- MACD below signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | S&P 500 | vs S&P 500 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | +0.6% | −1.1% | +1.7 pp | — |
| 3 months | +61.9% | −0.5% | +62.4 pp | — |
| 6 months | +54.2% | +4.4% | +49.8 pp | — |
| Year to date | +21.4% | +12.3% | +9.1 pp | — |
| 1 year | +64.5% | +13.5% | +50.9 pp | −3.9% |
| 3 years | unavailable | +76.4% | unavailable | +3.6% |
| 5 years | unavailable | +63.7% | unavailable | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
Latest quarter: Q2 2026 · 30 Jun 2026
Quarterly margins
Quarterly statements · USD
| Fiscal year | Q3 '24 | Q4 '24 | Q1 '25 | Q2 '25 | Q3 '25 | Q4 '25 | Q1 '26 | Q2 '26 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 153.7 m | 190.7 m | 178.0 m | 219.1 m | 267.4 m | 248.4 m | 273.3 m | 356.9 m |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 5.8 m | 10.4 m | 7.4 m | 8.3 m | 10.0 m | 9.5 m | 10.0 m | 10.4 m |
| Interest expense | 3.1 m | 3.0 m | 2.6 m | 2.5 m | 2.6 m | 3.2 m | 2.5 m | 2.4 m |
| Pre-tax income | 1.3 m | 23.0 m | 15.5 m | 22.3 m | -1.4 bn | -2.2 m | 2.0 m | 87.4 m |
| Income tax | -8.1 m | 2.4 m | 7.7 m | 9.2 m | 9.5 m | -3.1 m | 6.1 m | 7.4 m |
| Net income | 8.1 m | 16.7 m | 7.8 m | 8.8 m | -1.4 bn | 8.3 m | -4.1 m | 80.0 m |
| Diluted EPS | 0.04 | 0.08 ≈ | 0.03 | 0.04 | -6.99 | 0.04 ≈ | -0.02 | 0.36 |
| Operating cash flow | 276.4 m ≈ | 241.8 m | 91.8 m | 217.5 m ≈ | 73.9 m ≈ | 61.9 m | -21.4 m | -68.6 m ≈ |
| Share repurchases | — | — | 0 | 0 ≈ | — | — | 12.2 m | 70.4 m ≈ |
≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 344.0 m | 602.6 m | 912.9 m |
| Revenue YoY | unavailable | +75.2% | +51.5% |
| Net income | -64.1 m | 22.9 m | -1.3 bn |
| Net income YoY | unavailable | unavailable | −5,974.2% |
| Diluted EPS | -0.29 | 0.14 | -7.49 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | unavailable | unavailable | −5,450.0% |
| net % | -18.6% | 3.8% | -147.4% |
| Free cash flow | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable |
Reported results vs expectations
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Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025
- Cash
- 1.7 bn USD
- Financial debt
- 121.3 m USD
- Net debt
- -1.6 bn USD
- Equity
- 726.4 m USD
- Total assets
- 8.3 bn USD
- Debt / equity
- 0.17x
- Current ratio
- unavailable
- ROE
- -233.3%
- ROA
- -18.7%
- FCF margin
- unavailable
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (USD)
Margins
Income statement · USD
| Line | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 344.0 m | 602.6 m | 912.9 m | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Mar 2026verified |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 14.5 m | 26.6 m | 35.2 m | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Mar 2026verified |
| Interest expense | 10.9 m | 12.1 m | 10.9 m | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Mar 2026verified |
| Pre-tax income | -43.9 m | 32.0 m | -1.3 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Mar 2026verified |
| Income tax | 20.2 m | 9.1 m | 23.3 m | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Mar 2026verified |
| Net income | -64.1 m | 22.9 m | -1.3 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Mar 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | -0.29 | 0.14 | -7.49 | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Mar 2026verified |
| Weighted average diluted shares | 165.6 m | 199.7 m | 190.3 m | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Mar 2026verified |
Balance sheet · USD
| Line | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 775.4 m | 1.2 bn | 1.7 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Mar 2026verified |
| Goodwill | 20.7 m | 30.9 m | 63.1 m | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Mar 2026verified |
| Intangibles (excl. goodwill) | 30.8 m | 33.1 m | 52.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Mar 2026verified |
| Total assets | — | 6.1 bn | 8.3 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Mar 2026verified |
| Long-term debt | — | 121.4 m | 121.3 m | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Mar 2026verified |
| Total liabilities | — | 5.7 bn | 7.5 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Mar 2026verified |
| Equity | 286.7 m | 427.0 m | 726.4 m | SEC (XBRL)· 13 May 2026verified |
Cash flow · USD
| Line | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | 290.0 m | 785.7 m | 445.1 m | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Mar 2026verified |
| Investing cash flow | -12.6 m | -380.1 m | -173.6 m | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Mar 2026verified |
| Financing cash flow | 10.3 m | 110.3 m | 205.8 m | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Mar 2026verified |
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
- indicators available: 1 of at least 6
- score weight coverage: 6.2% of at least 60%
- valuation methods computed: 0 of at least 1
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 3.3 bn USD
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
6% · Insufficient data
Estimated value range
unavailable — no valuation method could be computed
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Valuation methods
- DCF (discounted cash flow)unavailable · input data missing
- Peers: EV/EBITDAunavailable · input data missing
- Peers: P/Eunavailable · the base of the ratio is not positive
- Dividend discount (DDM)unavailable · the company pays no dividend: a dividend model needs an explicit initiation assumption
no valuation method could be computed
Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 4.3%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 9.3%
- Terminal growth
- 2.5%
Factor scorecard
Insufficient data
Minimum-evidence gate: indicators available: 1 of at least 6; score weight coverage: 6.2% of at least 60%; valuation methods computed: 0 of at least 1
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net margin · Quality | -112.1% | 7 (vs peers) | 100% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| FCF yield · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet· partialunavailable · 0/3 factors with a value
- Growth· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
- Quality· partial7/100 · 1/3 factors with a value
- Returns· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
- Valuation· partialunavailable · 0/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
Accelerant Holdings (ARX). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2026-06-30.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 912.9 m USD in 2025; YoY growth 51.5%; net margin -112.1%; ROE -241.6%.
Valuation cannot be computed from the available data.
Insufficient data for a verdict (indicators available: 1 of at least 6; score weight coverage: 6.2% of at least 60%; valuation methods computed: 0 of at least 1).
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
No signal among the computed factors. That is not an absence of risk: factors without data were not assessed, and business risks (margins, inventory, demand) are in the source-based analysis.
What contradicts it
- Net margin: -112.1%
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): ROIC, FCF conversion, Revenue CAGR 3Y, EPS CAGR 3Y, Net debt / EBITDA, Interest coverage, Current ratio, P/E (TTM), EV/EBITDA, FCF yield, Shareholder yield (distributions), Payout ratio (FCF).
Versus the vertical median
Insurance Agents, Brokers & Service (SIC 6411) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 29 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MRSHMarsh & Mclennan Companies, Inc. | 100.0 bn | 25.2 | 26.7% | 14.2% | +10.3% | +15% / +5% |
| XHGXChange TEC.INC | 85.9 bn | — | — | -204.9% | +24.9% | +253% / −100% |
| AJGArthur J. Gallagher & Co. | 73.9 bn | 47.1 | 6.7% | 10.0% | +20.7% | +16% / +16% |
| AONAon plc | 73.1 bn | 18.9 | 43.6% | 22.2% | +9.4% | −3% / +5% |
| WTWWillis Towers Watson PLC | 31.1 bn | 20.5 | 20.2% | 15.2% | −2.2% | +5% / +37% |
| BROBrown & Brown, Inc. | 24.5 bn | 22.1 | 9.7% | 17.6% | +22.8% | −8% / −1% |
| EQHEquitable Holdings, Inc. | 15.3 bn | — | -508.8% | -8.7% | −6.1% | +20% / +83% |
| AIFUAIFU Inc. | 10.5 bn | — | -155.9% | -408.8% | −67.9% | −84% / −100% |
| ACTEnact Holdings, Inc. | 6.6 bn | 10.7 | 12.7% | 53.8% | +2.8% | +25% / +74% |
| HGTYHagerty, Inc. | 6.5 bn | 108.0 | 25.6% | 4.4% | +17.3% | +40% / +121% |
| RYANRyan Specialty Holdings, Inc. | 5.2 bn | 49.9 | 19.4% | 3.2% | +21.3% | −18% / +4% |
| CRVLCorvel Corporation | 4.4 bn | 38.9 | 30.7% | 11.7% | +7.0% | +19% / +26% |
| WDHWaterdrop Inc. | 3.6 bn | 50.5 | 11.6% | 14.2% | +49.8% | −44% / −16% |
| ARXAccelerant Holdings | 3.3 bn | — | -241.6% | -112.1% | +51.5% | +64% / unavailable |
| NPNeptune Insurance Holdings Inc. | 2.7 bn | 91.6 | — | 22.7% | +33.7% | +22% / unavailable |
| GSHDGoosehead Insurance, Inc. | 1.2 bn | 33.8 | — | 8.8% | +16.2% | −21% / −23% |
| HUIZHuize Holding Limited | 1.1 bn | — | 1.0% | 0.3% | +32.2% | −31% / −48% |
| BWINThe Baldwin Insurance Group, Inc. | 1.1 bn | — | -10.7% | -4.7% | +8.3% | +13% / +84% |
| RDZNRoadzen Inc. | 92.8 m | — | — | -46.9% | +24.2% | −37% / −78% |
| SLQTSelectQuote, Inc. | 88.1 m | 7.3 | 23.4% | 4.6% | +6.0% | −66% / −61% |
| EHTHeHealth, Inc | 20.3 m | — | 5.0% | 5.4% | +4.1% | −84% / −91% |
| EZRAReliance Global Group, Inc. | 2.4 m | — | -123.4% | -54.3% | −11.6% | −91% / −100% |
| YBYuanbao Inc. | — | — | 152.7% | 29.9% | +33.1% | −43% / unavailable |
| ZBAOZhibao Technology Inc. | — | — | -141.3% | -22.4% | +53.0% | −99% / unavailable |
| LIFEEthos Technologies Inc. | 0 | — | -50.8% | -16.2% | +52.0% | unavailable / unavailable |
1- and 3-year price returns: for ARX from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (USD)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable |
| 3 years | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable |
| 5 years | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable |
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
In brief
Accelerant Holdings (ARX) runs a risk exchange that links specialty insurance underwriters with risk capital providers, earning fixed fees on premium written. The company has grown quickly, but in August 2026 it announced a merger that would take it private at 20.25 USD per share in cash, changing the investment picture.
SWOT
Strengths
- The platform combines extensive proprietary data with a capital-light model that depends on recurring fees.
- High net revenue retention and a large member base point to stable relationships with partners.
- The financial strength rating from A.M. Best gives an advantage in attracting business.
Weaknesses
- The exchange has a limited operating history, which makes its long-term prospects hard to assess.
- The 2025 net loss was affected by a non-recurring listing-related expense that changed the result.
- The dual-class share structure concentrates voting control with one principal shareholder.
Opportunities
- Third-party insurers accessing the platform directly could add volume and fee income.
- New products and geographic expansion could open additional markets for existing members.
- Capital and resources from a private equity owner could speed up technology development.
Threats
- A downgrade in financial strength rating could reduce business volume and raise reinsurance costs.
- Catastrophes and climate change could increase losses in the portfolio.
- Regulation and tax changes could reduce profitability or limit growth.
Risks
- Merger with Thoma Bravohigh
If the transaction does not close or is delayed by regulatory approvals, shareholders could face costs and uncertainty.
- Limited operating historymedium
The exchange model is new, and expansion to new members or products could fail to deliver the expected results.
- Financial strength ratingmedium
A downgrade by A.M. Best could reduce business volume and access to reinsurance.
- Underwriting and loss risksmedium
If loss ratios rise or members do not follow guidelines, losses could affect relationships with partners.
- Catastrophes and climate riskslow
Severe weather events could generate large losses that affect the financial position.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- If the exchange model keeps attracting members and third-party partners, fee growth could support long-term profitability.
- The cash offer could give shareholders a clear exit from the investment if the agreement closes.
- Support from a well-resourced investor could accelerate technology and platform expansion.
What would break the thesis
- If the transaction fails, the shares could be affected by uncertainty about the company's future and related costs.
- Rapid growth could slow as the company matures, and the model could become less profitable.
- Dependence on capital partners and reinsurance could expose the company to sudden changes in conditions.
What to watch
- Closing of the Thoma Bravo merger and regulatory approvals2027
- Trend in exchange written premium and the third-party shareQ3 2026
- Maintenance of the A.M. Best financial strength rating2027
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
The business
Accelerant Holdings, together with its subsidiaries, connects members (typically MGAs) with risk capital partners through its Risk Exchange, a platform built on proprietary technology and data. It supports underwriters with analytics, distribution, operational resources and stable capacity, while capital providers gain access to a portfolio of specialty insurance premium. According to the 2025 annual report, Accelerant had 280 members and 95 risk capital partners, and revenue for 2025 was '$913 million'.
The business model rests on fixed, volume-based fees paid by capital partners for sourcing, managing and monitoring risks. The company operates mainly in the United States, the European Union, Canada and the United Kingdom, focusing on small-to-medium commercial clients.
Beyond the exchange business, Accelerant has its own underwriting companies that cede most premium written through the platform. Capital flows are supported by vehicles such as Flywheel Re, a reinsurance structure funded by institutional investors.
Segments
Exchange Services
This is the core of the company: capital partners pay a fixed, volume-based fee for sourcing and monitoring, netted by performance-based commissions paid to members.
MGA Operations
The segment includes the Mission Underwriters incubator and members in which the company holds equity, generating commissions and investment income. These are also fee-based activities.
Underwriting
The segment groups Accelerant underwriting companies, which retain a small share of premium and earn ceding commissions from reinsurers including Flywheel Re. The company indicated that the retained share of premium is expected to decline over time.
Market context
The company operates in the specialty insurance market for low-limit, low-hazard commercial risks, where independent underwriters and MGAs need capacity and distribution. The annual report describes a fragmented market with many intermediaries, poor data quality and limited transparency, which the Accelerant platform says it addresses.
Volume growth depends on attracting new members and capital partners, and the company has acknowledged that its growth rate will moderate as it scales. Mid-2026 data show continued expansion of third-party insurers, which bring a growing share of premium.
Trends
- Direct access by third-party insurersmixed
Third-party insurers accessing the platform directly are growing fast, which could bring higher direct commission income but may slow growth in underwriting segment revenue.
- Digitalisation and artificial intelligencetailwind
Investment in data and AI tools for capturing and structuring data could lower costs and make the platform more attractive to members.
- Pressure on reinsurance terms and loss ratiosheadwind
If reinsurance conditions worsen or loss ratios rise, the company could retain more risk than forecast, which would weigh on results.
- Consolidation and private-market dealsmixed
Private equity interest in insurance businesses could shape valuation and capital structure, as the agreement with Thoma Bravo illustrates.
Competitive position
The annual report does not name direct competitors, but it refers to other platforms developing alternatives for managing and marketing risk to capital partners. Competition also comes from the traditional insurance market, with fragmented intermediation chains that the company presents as a disadvantage for incumbents.
- Other specialty risk exchange platforms
Cited in the report as potential developers of alternatives for managing and marketing risk, without named identification in the source texts.
- Traditional specialty insurers
Established insurance companies competing for underwriters and capital, in contrast to the digital exchange model.
- Independent MGAs
MGAs that could build their own direct channels to capital partners, reducing the need for the platform.
- Reinsurers and institutional investors
Players that can take part in the market directly through their own vehicles, competing with the company's reinsurance structure.
Links, dependencies and risks
Who the company is tied to, from its own SEC filings (customers, suppliers, production, partners, competitors, countries, regulation), from the 5 %+ holders' statements (13D/13G) and from what other companies say about it. Click a node for its evidence; on a listed company the graph moves to it.
Loading the links…
News & filings
In the press
No news in our archive over the last 180 days.
SEC filings
- Current report23 Sept 2026Other events · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report14 Aug 2026Material agreement · Financial statements and exhibits
- Quarterly report13 Aug 2026
- Current report13 Aug 2026Results of operations · Other events · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report29 May 2026Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
- Quarterly report13 May 2026
- Current report13 May 2026Results of operations · Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report12 May 2026Shareholder vote
- Proxy statement30 Mar 2026
- Annual report18 Mar 2026
Sources
- [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · SEC / Accelerant Holdings · 18 Mar 2026
- [2] Form 10-Q, quarter ended 2026-06-30 · SEC / Accelerant Holdings · 13 Aug 2026
- [3] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / Accelerant Holdings · 13 Aug 2026
Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.