olivLaw · US equity research
Yuanbao Inc. YB
Insurance Agents, Brokers & Service · SIC 6411 · Vertical: Insurance Agents, Brokers & Service (SIC 6411)
Yuanbao Inc. is an online insurance distributor in mainland China that connects consumers with products from partner insurance carriers through a data-driven technology engine. The company has grown quickly and turned profitable, and in fiscal 2025 revenue reached 4,373.2 million RMB, up 33.1%. Its relevance grows as the online insurance market expands, but the model depends largely on commissions negotiated with a small number of carriers.
The AI analysis may be outdated: new filings came after its sources (see the «AI analysis» section).
At the close of 04 Nov 2026, Yuanbao Inc. (YB) stock was 11.35 USD (+4.51% on the day), with beta 0.72, 52-week range 10.86–22.73 USD.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
Loading chart…
Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 45.1
- neutral
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 10.71 – 12.07
- in the lower half of the band · %B 0.47 · band width 11.9%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 12.30 / 15.48
- downtrend (price < SMA50 < SMA200)
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- -0.34 / -0.37
- MACD above signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | S&P 500 | vs S&P 500 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | −10.6% | −1.1% | −9.5 pp | — |
| 3 months | −17.1% | −0.5% | −16.7 pp | — |
| 6 months | −26.6% | +4.4% | −31.0 pp | — |
| Year to date | −44.0% | +12.3% | −56.3 pp | — |
| 1 year | −45.5% | +13.5% | −59.1 pp | +0.8% |
| 3 years | unavailable | +76.4% | unavailable | +3.6% |
| 5 years | unavailable | +63.7% | unavailable | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
ESEF annual reports carry no quarters: the results are annual (below).
E/P over time
the price (USD) and the reports are in different currencies
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 2.0 bn | 3.3 bn | 4.4 bn |
| Revenue YoY | unavailable | +60.6% | +33.1% |
| Net income | 203.1 m | 865.8 m | 1.3 bn |
| Net income YoY | unavailable | +326.3% | +51.0% |
| Diluted EPS | -4.71 | 3.19 | 4.57 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | unavailable | unavailable | +43.3% |
| net % | 9.9% | 26.4% | 29.9% |
| Free cash flow | 437.3 m | 1.2 bn | 1.5 bn |
Reported results vs expectations
Loading…
Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025
- Cash
- 860.5 m CNY
- Financial debt
- unavailable CNY
- Net debt
- unavailable CNY
- Equity
- 3.3 bn CNY
- Total assets
- 4.7 bn CNY
- Debt / equity
- unavailable
- Current ratio
- 3.91x
- ROE
- unavailable
- ROA
- 35.2%
- FCF margin
- 33.8%
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (CNY)
Margins
Income statement · CNY
| Line | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 2.0 bn | 3.3 bn | 4.4 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 30 Apr 2026verified |
| Cost of revenue | 138.0 m | 166.3 m | 167.5 m | SEC (XBRL)· 30 Apr 2026verified |
| Gross profit | 1.9 bn ≈ | 3.1 bn ≈ | 4.2 bn ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 30 Apr 2026derived |
| Research & development | 128.5 m | 231.0 m | 365.1 m | SEC (XBRL)· 30 Apr 2026verified |
| Pre-tax income | 205.5 m | 891.4 m | 1.4 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 30 Apr 2026verified |
| Income tax | 291.0 k | 25.6 m | 101.2 m | SEC (XBRL)· 30 Apr 2026verified |
| Net income | 203.1 m | 865.8 m | 1.3 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 30 Apr 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | -4.71 | 3.19 | 4.57 | SEC (XBRL)· 30 Apr 2026verified |
| Weighted average diluted shares | 70.7 m | 271.3 m | 285.9 m | SEC (XBRL)· 30 Apr 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Revenue − Cost of revenue.
Balance sheet · CNY
| Line | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 863.1 m | 1.9 bn | 860.5 m | SEC (XBRL)· 30 Apr 2026verified |
| Receivables | — | 261.0 m | 441.4 m | SEC (XBRL)· 30 Apr 2026verified |
| Current assets | — | 2.7 bn | 4.5 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 30 Apr 2026verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | — | 4.9 m | 13.8 m | SEC (XBRL)· 30 Apr 2026verified |
| Intangibles (excl. goodwill) | — | 58.0 m | 64.6 m | SEC (XBRL)· 30 Apr 2026verified |
| Total assets | — | 2.8 bn | 4.7 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 30 Apr 2026verified |
| Accounts payable | — | 10.7 m | 17.4 m | SEC (XBRL)· 30 Apr 2026verified |
| Current liabilities | — | 940.8 m | 1.1 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 30 Apr 2026verified |
| Total liabilities | — | 992.6 m | 1.3 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 30 Apr 2026verified |
| Equity | -2.1 bn † | -1.6 bn † | 3.3 bn † | SEC (XBRL)· 30 Apr 2026verified |
† equity attributable to the parent's shareholders: in these years the issuer no longer reports the total including non-controlling interests.
Cash flow · CNY
| Line | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | 442.0 m | 1.2 bn | 1.5 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 30 Apr 2026verified |
| Capex | 4.6 m | 3.3 m | 19.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 30 Apr 2026verified |
| Free cash flow | 437.3 m ≈ | 1.2 bn ≈ | 1.5 bn ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 30 Apr 2026derived |
| Investing cash flow | -45.3 m | -157.6 m | -2.7 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 30 Apr 2026verified |
| Financing cash flow | 18.0 m | -9.1 m | 196.8 m | SEC (XBRL)· 30 Apr 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating cash flow − Capex.
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
- indicators available: 3 of at least 6
- score weight coverage: 16.7% of at least 60%
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: unavailable
Price and reporting are in different currencies; market indicators are unavailable.
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
17% · Insufficient data
Estimated value range
unavailable — no valuation assumptions for the reporting currency
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Valuation methods
Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 6.5%
- Equity risk premium
- 6.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 12.5%
- Terminal growth
- 3.0%
Factor scorecard
Insufficient data
Minimum-evidence gate: indicators available: 3 of at least 6; score weight coverage: 16.7% of at least 60%
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net margin · Quality | 29.9% | 97 (vs peers) | 38% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | 112.9% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 38% |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 3.9x | 100 (on a fixed band) | 25% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| FCF yield · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet· partial100/100 · 1/3 factors with a value
- Growth· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
- Quality98/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
- Returns· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
- Valuation· partialunavailable · 0/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
Yuanbao Inc. (YB). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2025-12-31.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 4.4 bn CNY in 2025; YoY growth 33.1%; net margin 29.9%; ROE 152.7%.
The estimated value range is 76.89–187.19 CNY per share (median of 1 methods, agreement: single method); assumptions are illustrative. The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
Insufficient data for a verdict (indicators available: 3 of at least 6; score weight coverage: 16.7% of at least 60%).
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- Net margin: 29.9%
- FCF conversion: 112.9%
- Current ratio: 3.9x
What contradicts it
No signal among the computed factors. That is not an absence of risk: factors without data were not assessed, and business risks (margins, inventory, demand) are in the source-based analysis.
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): ROIC, Revenue CAGR 3Y, EPS CAGR 3Y, Net debt / EBITDA, Interest coverage, P/E (TTM), EV/EBITDA, FCF yield, Shareholder yield (distributions), Payout ratio (FCF).
Versus the vertical median
Insurance Agents, Brokers & Service (SIC 6411) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 29 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MRSHMarsh & Mclennan Companies, Inc. | 100.0 bn | 25.2 | 26.7% | 14.2% | +10.3% | +15% / +5% |
| XHGXChange TEC.INC | 85.9 bn | — | — | -204.9% | +24.9% | +253% / −100% |
| AJGArthur J. Gallagher & Co. | 73.9 bn | 47.1 | 6.7% | 10.0% | +20.7% | +16% / +16% |
| AONAon plc | 73.1 bn | 18.9 | 43.6% | 22.2% | +9.4% | −3% / +5% |
| WTWWillis Towers Watson PLC | 31.1 bn | 20.5 | 20.2% | 15.2% | −2.2% | +5% / +37% |
| BROBrown & Brown, Inc. | 24.5 bn | 22.1 | 9.7% | 17.6% | +22.8% | −8% / −1% |
| EQHEquitable Holdings, Inc. | 15.3 bn | — | -508.8% | -8.7% | −6.1% | +20% / +83% |
| AIFUAIFU Inc. | 10.5 bn | — | -155.9% | -408.8% | −67.9% | −84% / −100% |
| ACTEnact Holdings, Inc. | 6.6 bn | 10.7 | 12.7% | 53.8% | +2.8% | +25% / +74% |
| HGTYHagerty, Inc. | 6.5 bn | 108.0 | 25.6% | 4.4% | +17.3% | +40% / +121% |
| RYANRyan Specialty Holdings, Inc. | 5.2 bn | 49.9 | 19.4% | 3.2% | +21.3% | −18% / +4% |
| CRVLCorvel Corporation | 4.4 bn | 38.9 | 30.7% | 11.7% | +7.0% | +19% / +26% |
| WDHWaterdrop Inc. | 3.6 bn | 50.5 | 11.6% | 14.2% | +49.8% | −44% / −16% |
| ARXAccelerant Holdings | 3.3 bn | — | -241.6% | -112.1% | +51.5% | +36% / unavailable |
| NPNeptune Insurance Holdings Inc. | 2.7 bn | 91.6 | — | 22.7% | +33.7% | +22% / unavailable |
| GSHDGoosehead Insurance, Inc. | 1.2 bn | 33.8 | — | 8.8% | +16.2% | −21% / −23% |
| HUIZHuize Holding Limited | 1.1 bn | — | 1.0% | 0.3% | +32.2% | −31% / −48% |
| BWINThe Baldwin Insurance Group, Inc. | 1.1 bn | — | -10.7% | -4.7% | +8.3% | +13% / +84% |
| RDZNRoadzen Inc. | 92.8 m | — | — | -46.9% | +24.2% | −37% / −78% |
| SLQTSelectQuote, Inc. | 88.1 m | 7.3 | 23.4% | 4.6% | +6.0% | −66% / −61% |
| EHTHeHealth, Inc | 20.3 m | — | 5.0% | 5.4% | +4.1% | −84% / −91% |
| EZRAReliance Global Group, Inc. | 2.4 m | — | -123.4% | -54.3% | −11.6% | −91% / −100% |
| YBYuanbao Inc. | — | — | 152.7% | 29.9% | +33.1% | −46% / unavailable |
| ERIEErie Indemnity Company | — | — | 23.7% | 14.0% | +7.2% | −5% / −5% |
| HITHealth In Tech, Inc. | — | — | -21.9% | -12.0% | +71.0% | −61% / unavailable |
1- and 3-year price returns: for YB from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Scenarios are not available. input data missing
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 30 Apr 2026; since then the company filed 6-K (10 Sept 2026), 6-K (10 Jun 2026).
In brief
Yuanbao Inc. is an online insurance distributor in mainland China that connects consumers with products from partner insurance carriers through a data-driven technology engine. The company has grown quickly and turned profitable, and in fiscal 2025 revenue reached 4,373.2 million RMB, up 33.1% 1. Its relevance grows as the online insurance market expands, but the model depends largely on commissions negotiated with a small number of carriers 1.
SWOT
Strengths
- The company has an integrated technology engine with a large number of models and data labels that support recommendation and policy sales 1.
- The company reached profitability within about three years of inception, and operating cash inflow has grown visibly 1.
- Relationships with several carriers and a broad range of medical and critical illness products support attracting and retaining consumers 1.
Weaknesses
- A significant part of revenue comes from a limited number of product categories and a narrow group of carriers 1.
- The business model has a short history, which makes it hard to project future results from past performance 1.
- Marketing costs remain high relative to revenue even though they have fallen in recent years, creating dependence on the efficiency of customer acquisition 1.
Opportunities
- Expansion in Hong Kong and the Fumin acquisition could open new markets and revenue sources 1.
- Developing new products and widening the range of insurance sold could reduce dependence on current categories 1.
- Extending system services to more carriers could grow revenue without a proportional rise in acquisition costs 1.
Risks
- Dependence on carriershigh
Revenue depends on relationships with a small number of insurance carriers, and losing a major partner could have significant effects 1.
- VIE structurehigh
Control over mainland operations rests on contracts rather than direct ownership, and a change in legal interpretation could affect their enforceability 1.
- Product concentrationmedium
A limited number of insurance categories generate a large share of revenue, and a decline in their popularity could reduce sales 1.
- Artificial intelligence risksmedium
Automated models could produce errors in product display or recommendation, which could cause operational and reputational losses 1.
- Profitability not assuredmedium
The source warns the company may not maintain profitability in the future, particularly if growth slows 1.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- If the online distribution model keeps gaining share, the company could benefit from its large consumer base and growing policy volumes 1.
- System services for carriers could become a steadier revenue stream, less dependent on individual commission rates 1.
- Stated operational efficiency and falling marketing costs relative to revenue could support better margins over the longer term 1.
What would break the thesis
- If commissions fall or carriers build their own online channels, revenue could slow or decline 1.
- The contractual VIE structure could be challenged by authorities, which could limit control over the business 1.
- The short history and dependence on a few product categories make it hard to judge whether current growth is durable 1.
What to watch
- Effect of the Fumin acquisition on revenue and cost structure2026
- Marketing costs as a share of total revenue2026
- Regulatory developments on online distribution and the VIE structure2027
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 30 Apr 2026; since then the company filed 6-K (10 Sept 2026), 6-K (10 Jun 2026).
The business
Yuanbao Inc. is a Cayman Islands company that operates in mainland China through a WFOE and a VIE controlled by contractual arrangements 1. Its main activity is online distribution of insurance, particularly medical and critical illness products underwritten by partner carriers, for which it bears no underwriting risk 1. In fiscal 2025 it acquired a Hong Kong brokerage and in January 2026 completed the acquisition of Fumin Insurance Brokerage, extending its regional and mainland presence 1.
Segments
Insurance distribution services
Revenue from insurance distribution reached 1,446.8 million RMB in fiscal 2025, or 33.1% of the total, mainly commissions received from carriers as a percentage of premiums 1. Short-term insurance dominates this segment, with medical and critical illness products as the main categories 1.
System services for insurance carriers
System services, which include technical advisory, application of the consumer service engine and capacity building for intelligent insurance, generated 2,922.7 million RMB in fiscal 2025 1. It is the largest and fastest-growing segment, though it depends on relationships with a narrow group of carriers 1.
Market context
The company operates in the online insurance distribution market in mainland China, which the source describes as emerging, rapidly evolving and highly competitive, with a regulatory framework still developing 1. Growth in online consumers and in buying policies over the internet drives the market, and medical and critical illness insurance dominate demand 1.
The company ties market development to disposable income, online consumption habits, risk awareness and commission policy, all of which can change the volumes it can distribute 1.
Trends
- Focus on critical illness insurancemixed
The share of critical illness insurance in new policies has risen steadily, which could lift average commission value but also changes the product risk mix 1.
- Artificial intelligence and automationmixed
The company invests in large language models, automated agents and RAG systems, which could lower operating costs but bring compliance and reputational risks 1.
- Pressure on commission ratesheadwind
Revenue depends on commission rates set or negotiated with carriers, and any reduction could directly affect results as competition grows 1.
Competitive position
The source describes the insurance distribution market in China as highly competitive, with existing and new players that could contest market share, margins and qualified staff 1. The company does not name specific competitors in the section reviewed, so its position is best judged from its own statements on technology and customer base 1.
Its stated advantage lies in its data engine, carrier relationships and cost-efficient customer acquisition, though part of the rivalry could come from platforms expanding their own insurance services 1.
- Other online insurance distributors in China
The source does not name specific competitors but describes a market where new entrants and existing players compete for consumers and commissions 1.
- Partner insurance carriers
Carriers are both customers and possible indirect competitors, since they could build their own online sales channels 1.
- Online platforms that host advertising
The company buys traffic through Chinese online platforms, which makes them essential channels and potential competitors for consumer attention 1.
- Hong Kong insurance brokers
After acquiring a Hong Kong firm, the company enters a regional market with other licensed brokers whose position the source does not detail 1.
Links, dependencies and risks
Who the company is tied to, from its own SEC filings (customers, suppliers, production, partners, competitors, countries, regulation), from the 5 %+ holders' statements (13D/13G) and from what other companies say about it. Click a node for its evidence; on a listed company the graph moves to it.
Loading the links…
News & filings
In the press
- Yuanbao (YB) Q2 2026 Earnings Call TranscriptYahoo Finance — News · 11 Sept 2026 · EN
SEC filings
- Current report (foreign issuer)10 Sept 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)10 Jun 2026
- Annual report (foreign issuer)30 Apr 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)18 Mar 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)03 Dec 2025
- Current report (foreign issuer)28 Aug 2025
- Current report (foreign issuer)06 Jun 2025
Sources
- [1] Form 20-F, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · SEC / Yuanbao Inc. · 30 Apr 2026
Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.