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olivLaw · US equity research

Marsh & McLennan Companies, Inc. (Marsh) MRSH

Insurance Agents, Brokers & Service · SIC 6411 · Vertical: Insurance Agents, Brokers & Service (SIC 6411)

210.38USD+3.31% · 1 dayClose 04 Nov 2026

Marsh & McLennan Companies (Marsh, ticker MRSH) is a global professional services firm in risk, reinsurance and capital, people and investments, and management consulting, advising clients in 130 countries. In the first nine months of 2026, consolidated revenue reached $21.9 billion, up 7%, or 5% on an underlying basis. The business still depends heavily on insurance brokerage and consulting for health and retirement.

At the close of 04 Nov 2026, Marsh & McLennan Companies, Inc. (Marsh) (MRSH) stock was 210.38 USD (+3.31% on the day), with market capitalisation 100.0 bn USD, P/E 25.2 on diluted EPS of 8.35 USD over the last 12 months, dividend yield 1.80%, beta 0.16, 52-week range 157.32–210.38 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q3 2026): revenue of 6.9 bn USD (+8.1% YoY), net income of 808.0 m USD (+8.2% YoY), diluted EPS 1.69 USD.

Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.

Market cap
100.0 bn USD
shares as of 12 Oct 2026
P/E (TTM)
25.2
Diluted EPS TTM 8.35 · TTM to 30 Sept 2026
E/P (TTM)
3.97%
TTM to 30 Sept 2026
Dividend yield
1.80%
DPS 12m 3.78
Beta (2y)
0.16
Volatility (1y) 26%
52-week range
157.32210.38

Price history

Loading chart…

Technical reading

RSI (14)
75.6
overbought (≥ 70)
Bollinger (20, 2)
170.90 – 211.21
in the upper half of the band · %B 0.98 · band width 21.1%
SMA 50 / 200
183.13 / 177.54
uptrend (price > SMA50 > SMA200)
MACD (12, 26, 9)
7.04 / 5.23
MACD above signal

Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).

Performance

CompanyS&P 500vs S&P 500Vertical median
1 month+23.4%−1.1%+24.5 pp—
3 months+9.9%−0.5%+10.3 pp—
6 months+28.4%+4.4%+24.0 pp—
Year to date+13.4%+12.3%+1.1 pp—
1 year+16.6%+13.5%+3.0 pp−3.9%
3 years+8.5%+76.4%−67.9 pp+1.3%
5 years+30.3%+63.7%−33.4 pp—
Max drawdown (1y)
−17.1%
04 Feb 2026 → 03 Jun 2026
Max drawdown (5y)
−35.6%
03 Apr 2025 → 03 Jun 2026
Compound annual growth (5y)
+5.4%
S&P 500 +10.4%

Price returns, dividends excluded.

Quarterly results

Latest quarter: Q3 2026 · 30 Sept 2026

Revenue
6.9 bn USD
+8.1% YoY
Net income
808.0 m USD
+8.2% YoY
Diluted EPS
1.69
+11.9% YoY
net / operating
11.8% / 17.7%

Quarterly margins

Quarterly statements · USD

Fiscal yearQ4 '24Q1 '25Q2 '25Q3 '25Q4 '25Q1 '26Q2 '26Q3 '26
Revenue6.1 bn7.1 bn7.0 bn6.4 bn6.6 bn7.6 bn7.4 bn6.9 bn
Operating income1.1 bn2.0 bn1.8 bn1.2 bn1.2 bn1.8 bn1.9 bn1.2 bn
Depreciation & amortisation93.0 m88.0 m91.0 m91.0 m91.0 m89.0 m90.0 m89.0 m
Interest expense231.0 m245.0 m243.0 m237.0 m235.0 m240.0 m250.0 m248.0 m
Pre-tax income1.0 bn1.8 bn1.6 bn1.0 bn1.1 bn1.6 bn1.7 bn1.0 bn
Income tax208.0 m415.0 m415.0 m253.0 m222.0 m395.0 m411.0 m221.0 m
Net income788.0 m1.4 bn1.2 bn747.0 m821.0 m1.1 bn1.3 bn808.0 m
Diluted EPS1.59 ≈2.792.451.511.67 ≈2.362.631.69
Operating cash flow2.0 bn-622.0 m1.7 bn ≈2.1 bn ≈2.2 bn-688.0 m1.5 bn ≈1.5 bn ≈
Capex76.0 m55.0 m59.0 m ≈72.0 m ≈105.0 m62.0 m72.0 m ≈81.0 m ≈
Dividends paid403.0 m405.0 m405.0 m ≈445.0 m ≈444.0 m440.0 m438.0 m ≈476.0 m ≈
Share repurchases0300.0 m300.0 m ≈402.0 m ≈1.0 bn755.0 m757.0 m ≈504.0 m ≈

≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)

E/P over time

E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.

Today's P/E sits at the 33 percentile of its own 27-quarter history (min 20.2, median 26.2, max 29.9; quarters with earnings only).

Fiscal years

Fiscal year20182019202020212022202320242025
Revenue15.0 bn16.7 bn17.2 bn19.8 bn20.7 bn22.7 bn24.5 bn27.0 bn
Revenue YoY+6.6%+11.4%+3.4%+15.1%+4.5%+9.7%+7.6%+10.3%
Net income1.7 bn1.7 bn2.0 bn3.1 bn3.1 bn3.8 bn4.1 bn4.2 bn
Net income YoY+10.6%+5.6%+15.7%+55.9%−3.0%+23.1%+8.1%+2.5%
Diluted EPS3.233.413.946.136.047.538.188.43
Diluted EPS YoY+12.5%+5.6%+15.5%+55.6%−1.5%+24.7%+8.6%+3.1%
net %11.0%10.5%11.7%15.9%14.7%16.5%16.6%15.4%
Free cash flow2.1 bn1.9 bn3.0 bn3.1 bn3.0 bn3.8 bn4.0 bn5.0 bn

Reported results vs expectations

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Balance sheet & financial health

Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025

Cash
2.7 bn USD
Financial debt
19.6 bn USD
Net debt
16.9 bn USD
Equity
15.3 bn USD
Total assets
58.7 bn USD
Debt / equity
1.28x
Current ratio
1.10x
ROE
28.8%
ROA
7.2%
FCF margin
18.5%

Financial statements (source on every figure)

Revenue and net income (USD)

Margins

Income statement · USD

Revenue
2023
22.7 bn
2024
24.5 bn
2025
27.0 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 09 Feb 2026verified

Operating income
2023
5.3 bn
2024
5.8 bn
2025
6.2 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 09 Feb 2026verified

Depreciation & amortisation
2023
370.0 m
2024
369.0 m
2025
361.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 09 Feb 2026verified

EBITDA
2023
5.7 bn ≈
2024
6.2 bn ≈
2025
6.6 bn ≈

SEC (XBRL)· 09 Feb 2026derived

Interest expense
2023
578.0 m
2024
700.0 m
2025
960.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 09 Feb 2026verified

Pre-tax income
2023
5.0 bn
2024
5.5 bn
2025
5.5 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 09 Feb 2026verified

Income tax
2023
1.2 bn
2024
1.4 bn
2025
1.3 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 09 Feb 2026verified

Net income
2023
3.8 bn
2024
4.1 bn
2025
4.2 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 09 Feb 2026verified

Diluted EPS
2023
7.53
2024
8.18
2025
8.43

SEC (XBRL)· 09 Feb 2026verified

Weighted average diluted shares
2023
499.0 m
2024
496.0 m
2025
494.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 09 Feb 2026verified

Dividend per share
2023
2.60
2024
3.05
2025
3.43

SEC (XBRL)· 09 Feb 2026verified

Balance sheet · USD

Cash
2023
3.4 bn
2024
2.4 bn
2025
2.7 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 09 Feb 2026verified

Current assets
2023
21.7 bn
2024
22.1 bn
2025
23.2 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 09 Feb 2026verified

Property, plant & equipment, net
2023
882.0 m
2024
859.0 m
2025
829.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 09 Feb 2026verified

Goodwill
2023
17.2 bn
2024
23.3 bn
2025
24.3 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 09 Feb 2026verified

Intangibles (excl. goodwill)
2023
2.6 bn
2024
4.8 bn
2025
4.7 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 09 Feb 2026verified

Total assets
2023
48.0 bn
2024
56.5 bn
2025
58.7 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 09 Feb 2026verified

Accounts payable
2023
3.4 bn
2024
3.4 bn
2025
3.7 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 09 Feb 2026verified

Short-term debt
2023
1.6 bn
2024
519.0 m
2025
1.3 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 09 Feb 2026verified

Long-term debt
2023
11.8 bn
2024
19.4 bn
2025
18.3 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 09 Feb 2026verified

Current liabilities
2023
19.8 bn
2024
19.5 bn
2025
21.1 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 09 Feb 2026verified

Equity
2023
12.4 bn
2024
13.5 bn
2025
15.3 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 09 Feb 2026verified

Cash flow · USD

Operating cash flow
2023
4.3 bn
2024
4.3 bn
2025
5.3 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 09 Feb 2026verified

Capex
2023
416.0 m
2024
316.0 m
2025
291.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 09 Feb 2026verified

Free cash flow
2023
3.8 bn ≈
2024
4.0 bn ≈
2025
5.0 bn ≈

SEC (XBRL)· 09 Feb 2026derived

Investing cash flow
2023
-1.4 bn
2024
-8.8 bn
2025
-845.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 09 Feb 2026verified

Financing cash flow
2023
-1.1 bn
2024
4.5 bn
2025
-4.6 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 09 Feb 2026verified

Dividends paid
2023
1.3 bn
2024
1.5 bn
2025
1.7 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 09 Feb 2026verified

Share repurchases
2023
1.2 bn
2024
900.0 m
2025
2.0 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 09 Feb 2026verified

Computed indicators

Growth

Revenue growth (YoY)
10.3%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Revenue CAGR 3Y
9.2%
computed by olivLawFY 2022 → FY 2025
Revenue CAGR 5Y
9.4%
computed by olivLawFY 2020 → FY 2025
EBIT growth (YoY)
7.0%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Net income growth (YoY)
2.5%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Net income CAGR 3Y
10.9%
computed by olivLawFY 2022 → FY 2025
Net income CAGR 5Y
15.6%
computed by olivLawFY 2020 → FY 2025
EPS growth (YoY)
3.1%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
EPS CAGR 3Y
11.8%
computed by olivLawFY 2022 → FY 2025
EPS CAGR 5Y
16.4%
computed by olivLawFY 2020 → FY 2025
FCF growth (YoY)
25.5%
computed by olivLawFY 2025

Profitability

Gross margin
unavailable
input data missing
EBITDA margin
22.7%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
EBIT margin
21.4%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Net margin
14.2%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
FCF margin
14.6%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026

Returns

ROE
26.7%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
ROA
6.8%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
ROIC
14.2%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
ROCE
16.1%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Payout ratio (EPS)
45.3%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Payout ratio (FCF)
43.3%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026

Balance sheet

Net debt
18.7 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Net debt / EBITDA
2.9x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Debt / equity
1.4x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Interest coverage
6.3x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026

Liquidity

Current ratio
1.1x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Quick ratio
unavailable
input data missing
Cash ratio
0.1x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026

Cash

Operating cash flow
4.5 bn USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Capital expenditure
320.0 m USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Free cash flow
4.2 bn USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
FCF conversion
102.8%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Cash conversion
69.4%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026

Efficiency

Days sales outstanding
unavailable
input data missing
Days inventory outstanding
unavailable
input data missing
Days payables outstanding
unavailable
input data missing
Cash conversion cycle
unavailable
input data missing

Market and valuation

Market capitalisation
100.0 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Enterprise value
118.7 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Market cap / net income TTM
24.8x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
P/E (TTM)
25.2x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Earnings yield
4.0%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
P/B
6.7x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
P/S
3.5x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
EV/EBITDA
18.4x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
EV/EBIT
19.5x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
EV/Sales
4.2x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
P/FCF
24.1x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
FCF yield
4.2%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Dividend yield
1.8%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Shareholder yield (distributions)
4.8%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026

1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.

Valuation

olivLaw classification

Unattractive profile

Score: 62 / 100

A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.

(margin_of_safety <= -0.25 & agreement in ['high', 'medium'])

Closing price

210.38 USD

04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series

Market cap: 100.0 bn USD

Key indicators

Market capitalisation
100.0 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
P/E (TTM)
25.2x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
P/B
6.7x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
EV/EBITDA
18.4x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
ROE
26.7%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Net margin
14.2%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Revenue growth (YoY)
10.3%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Dividend yield
1.8%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026

Coverage and freshness

29/37 reporting lines present
Latest full fiscal year: 2025
Latest reported period: 30 Sept 2026
Latest balance sheet date: 30 Sept 2026
Share count (cover of the latest filing), as of: 12 Oct 2026
Source: SEC (XBRL)published 15 Oct 2026
verified 2256derived 111

Score by group

  • Valuation48
  • Balance sheet35
  • Quality83
  • Growth78
  • Returns81

Estimated value range

Low
102.62
USD per share
Mid
153.90
USD per share
High
187.90
USD per share
Price: 210.38 USD
The price is above the range
Potential to the central value: -26.8% (value / price − 1)
Margin of safety: -36.7% (1 − price / value)
Agreement between methods: high · 4 methods used · 3 independent bases

The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 45.07 – 359.15 USD.

Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.

Method ranges (USD per share)

— — Mid · ▏ Price

Valuation methods

  • DCF (discounted cash flow)126.94 – 229.51 (Mid 165.48)
    WACC 8.5% · starting FCFF 4.9 bn USD · terminal value share of EV 76%
    The WACC × g sensitivity gives the method's bounds; these are not probabilities.
    Reverse DCF: starting growth implied by the price (fading linearly to terminal growth, everything else fixed): 18.5%
  • Peers: EV/EBITDA81.84 – 146.30 (Mid 142.32)
    3 companies used · median multiple 13.4x · quartiles 8.9x – 13.7x
    BWIN, GSHD, SLQT
  • Peers: P/E123.39 – 359.15 (Mid 184.37)
    11 companies used · median multiple 22.1x · quartiles 14.8x – 43.0x
    ACT, AJG, AON, BRO, CRVL, GSHD, RYAN, SLQT, TWFG, WDH, WTW
  • Dividend discount (DDM)45.07 – 60.62 (Mid 51.70)
Multiple comparisons use the SIC vertical: Insurance Agents, Brokers & Service (SIC 6411)

Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.

Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)

Risk-free rate
4.3%
Equity risk premium
5.0%
Beta (default)
1.00
Cost of equity
9.3%
Terminal growth
2.5%

Factor scorecard

Unattractive profile · Score 62/100

FactorValueScoreWeight used
ROIC · Quality14.2%79 (vs peers)10%
Net margin · Quality14.2%72 (vs peers)6%
FCF conversion · Quality102.8%100 (on a fixed band)6%
Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth9.2%77 (on a fixed band)8%
EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth11.8%78 (on a fixed band)8%
Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet2.9x17 (vs peers)10%
Interest coverage · Balance sheet6.3x73 (on a fixed band)6%
Current ratio · Balance sheet1.1x24 (on a fixed band)4%
P/E (TTM) · Valuation25.2x54 (vs peers)10%
EV/EBITDA · Valuation18.4x40 (vs peers)10%
FCF yield · Valuation4.2%52 (on a fixed band)8%
Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns4.8%69 (on a fixed band)6%
Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns43.3%100 (on a fixed band)4%

Score groups

  • Balance sheet35/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
  • Growth78/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
  • Quality83/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
  • Returns81/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
  • Valuation48/100 · 3/3 factors with a value

Memo

MARSH & MCLENNAN COMPANIES, INC. (MRSH). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2026-09-30.

Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 27.0 bn USD in 2025; YoY growth 10.3%; net margin 14.2%; ROE 26.7%; net debt/EBITDA 2.9x.

The estimated value range is 102.62–187.90 USD per share (median of 4 methods, agreement: high); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 153.90 USD, the price of 210.38 USD leaves a potential of -26.8% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of -36.7% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.

olivLaw score 62/100, methodological classification: unattractive profile (score, margin of safety and method agreement together; not a judgement of the right price). Not investment advice.

Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.

What supports the thesis

  • ROIC: 14.2%
  • Net margin: 14.2%
  • FCF conversion: 102.8%
  • Revenue CAGR 3Y: 9.2%
  • EPS CAGR 3Y: 11.8%
  • Interest coverage: 6.3x
  • Payout ratio (FCF): 43.3%

What contradicts it

  • Net debt / EBITDA: 2.9x
  • Current ratio: 1.1x
  • The price is above the estimated value range

Versus the vertical median

Insurance Agents, Brokers & Service (SIC 6411) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 29 companies

The size band was not applied: too few companies would have remained; the vertical includes much smaller or larger companies.

Multiples and returns vs the median

P/E
25.2x
vertical median 33.8x
below median (−25.4%)
EV/EBITDA
18.4x
vertical median 14.0x
above median (+31.7%)
P/S
3.5x
vertical median 3.3x
above median (+6.9%)
P/B
6.7x
vertical median 4.0x
above median (+67.4%)
ROE
26.7%
vertical median 9.7%
above median (+174.1%)
Net margin
14.2%
vertical median 4.4%
above median (+225.5%)
EBIT margin
21.4%
vertical median 6.9%
above median (+211.3%)
Revenue YoY
10.3%
vertical median 17.3%
below median (−40.4%)
Net debt/EBITDA
2.9x
vertical median -1.2x
above median
Dividend yield
1.8%
vertical median 0.9%
above median (+91.9%)

Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)

Companies in the vertical

Market capP/EROENet marginRevenue YoY1A / 3A
MRSHMarsh & Mclennan Companies, Inc.100.0 bn25.226.7%14.2%+10.3%+17% / +8%
XHGXChange TEC.INC85.9 bn——-204.9%+24.9%+253% / −100%
AJGArthur J. Gallagher & Co.73.9 bn47.16.7%10.0%+20.7%+16% / +16%
AONAon plc73.1 bn18.943.6%22.2%+9.4%−3% / +5%
WTWWillis Towers Watson PLC31.1 bn20.520.2%15.2%−2.2%+5% / +37%
BROBrown & Brown, Inc.24.5 bn22.19.7%17.6%+22.8%−8% / −1%
EQHEquitable Holdings, Inc.15.3 bn—-508.8%-8.7%−6.1%+20% / +83%
AIFUAIFU Inc.10.5 bn—-155.9%-408.8%−67.9%−84% / −100%
ACTEnact Holdings, Inc.6.6 bn10.712.7%53.8%+2.8%+25% / +74%
HGTYHagerty, Inc.6.5 bn108.025.6%4.4%+17.3%+40% / +121%
RYANRyan Specialty Holdings, Inc.5.2 bn49.919.4%3.2%+21.3%−18% / +4%
CRVLCorvel Corporation4.4 bn38.930.7%11.7%+7.0%+19% / +26%
WDHWaterdrop Inc.3.6 bn50.511.6%14.2%+49.8%−44% / −16%
ARXAccelerant Holdings3.3 bn—-241.6%-112.1%+51.5%+36% / unavailable
NPNeptune Insurance Holdings Inc.2.7 bn91.6—22.7%+33.7%+22% / unavailable
GSHDGoosehead Insurance, Inc.1.2 bn33.8—8.8%+16.2%−21% / −23%
HUIZHuize Holding Limited1.1 bn—1.0%0.3%+32.2%−31% / −48%
BWINThe Baldwin Insurance Group, Inc.1.1 bn—-10.7%-4.7%+8.3%+13% / +84%
RDZNRoadzen Inc.92.8 m——-46.9%+24.2%−37% / −78%
SLQTSelectQuote, Inc.88.1 m7.323.4%4.6%+6.0%−66% / −61%
EHTHeHealth, Inc20.3 m—5.0%5.4%+4.1%−84% / −91%
EZRAReliance Global Group, Inc.2.4 m—-123.4%-54.3%−11.6%−91% / −100%
YBYuanbao Inc.——152.7%29.9%+33.1%−43% / unavailable
CCGCheche Group Inc.——-5.0%-0.6%−13.3%+751% / +6%
HITHealth In Tech, Inc.——-21.9%-12.0%+71.0%−61% / unavailable

1- and 3-year price returns: for MRSH from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.

olivLaw engine forecast

The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.

Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)

Illustrative scenarios

Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.

Bear
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Base
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Bull
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Nothing is saved.

Estimated price (USD)

Estimated priceBearBaseBull
1 years
132.51
Total return -36% · Per year -36%
233.76
Total return 13% · Per year 13%
351.41
Total return 69% · Per year 69%
3 years
141.04
Total return -28% · Per year -10%
278.75
Total return 39% · Per year 12%
458.30
Total return 126% · Per year 31%
5 years
150.11
Total return -21% · Per year -5%
332.39
Total return 70% · Per year 11%
597.69
Total return 200% · Per year 25%
What moves the 3-year price the most
  • Exit P/E± 69.69
  • Net margin± 48.78
  • Annual revenue growth± 38.32
  • Annual dilution± 4.10

AI analysis

AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

In brief

Marsh & McLennan Companies (Marsh, ticker MRSH) is a global professional services firm in risk, reinsurance and capital, people and investments, and management consulting, advising clients in 130 countries 12. In the first nine months of 2026, consolidated revenue reached $21.9 billion, up 7%, or 5% on an underlying basis 2. The business still depends heavily on insurance brokerage and consulting for health and retirement.

SWOT

Strengths

  • Leading global position in insurance and reinsurance brokerage, with an extensive client network across many countries 1.
  • Diversification between brokerage and consulting, which reduces dependence on a single revenue type 12.
  • Underlying revenue and profit per share growth in 2026 indicates solid operational execution 23.

Weaknesses

  • Higher debt after acquisitions may limit financial flexibility and raise financing costs 1.
  • Reinsurance declined in the third quarter of 2026, showing vulnerability in certain lines 23.
  • Exposure to errors and omissions claims remains significant, with damages that can be hard to limit legally 1.

Opportunities

  • Demand for health, retirement and management consulting could keep growing if clients restructure their programs 12.
  • Acquisitions and the Thrive program could bring new revenue and efficiency if integration succeeds 13.
  • AI tools could lower costs and expand services if well integrated 1.

Threats

  • Disintermediation by insurers and digital platforms could reduce the role of brokers 1.
  • Lower interest rates and market volatility could reduce fiduciary and investment income 1.
  • Regulatory changes on how intermediaries are paid could affect the revenue model 1.

Risks

  • Errors and omissionshigh

    Claims for professional errors and breach of fiduciary duty can cause large losses, and some are not covered by insurance 1.

  • Legal compliancehigh

    The company cannot guarantee full compliance with laws in many jurisdictions, and regulatory changes could materially affect the business 1.

  • Macroeconomic environmentmedium

    Wars, tariffs, inflation and market volatility could reduce demand or pricing for services 12.

  • Cybersecuritymedium

    Cyberattacks and data breaches could harm reputation and create legal liability 12.

  • Integration costs and debtmedium

    Acquisitions and restructurings carry high costs, and heavy debt could limit financial flexibility 1.

Investment thesis

What would need to be true (bull case)

  • Underlying revenue growth and a large share of consulting income could support results if demand holds 23.
  • Global leadership and the Thrive program could bring efficiency and new revenue if executed well 13.
  • Diversification between brokerage and consulting could cushion shocks in any single segment 1.

What would break the thesis

  • Weaker reinsurance and cost pressure could limit profit growth if the trend continues 23.
  • Higher debt after acquisitions and legal risks could reduce financial flexibility 1.
  • Disintermediation and AI could reduce the value of traditional brokerage if competitors win clients 1.

What to watch

  • Underlying revenue trends in reinsurance and Marsh RiskQ4 2026
  • Litigation and risk factor disclosures in the annual reportnext 10-K
  • Effects of acquisitions and the Thrive program on margins2027
  • Debt levels and interest expense trendQ1 2027

Products, market & competition

AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

The business

The company operates through two segments: Risk and Insurance Services, which includes Marsh Risk (insurance broker) and Guy Carpenter (reinsurance), and Consulting, which includes Mercer and Marsh Management Consulting 1. Risk and Insurance Services accounted for about 64% of total revenue in 2025, and Consulting for about 36% 1. Marsh Risk is paid through commissions and fees, while part of its income comes from other payments by insurers, including contingent commissions 1.

In the third quarter of 2026, revenue was $6.9 billion, up 8%, and diluted EPS was $1.69 23. The company also completed its brand transition from Marsh McLennan to Marsh in January 2026, with segments renamed Reinsurance, People and Investments and Management Consulting 23. The brand changes did not alter the reported operating segments 2.

The McGriff acquisition, completed in November 2024 for $7.75 billion in cash, contributed visibly to Marsh Risk revenue in 2025 1. The company has also announced acquisitions in 2026 and the Thrive program, focused on brand, client value and efficiency 23.

Segments

Mercer and retirement

Mercer manages approximately $692 billion in assets as of December 31, 2025, showing significant exposure to pensions and investments 1. Results may therefore depend on capital markets and asset-based fees 1.

Market context

The insurance and reinsurance brokerage market is competitive and fragmented, with global, regional and local operators, and the value chain faces pressure from capital providers and clients choosing self-insurance 1. Demand for health, retirement and management consulting is supported by workforce changes, but could be affected by economic conditions and asset prices 1.

Underlying revenue growth of 5% in the third quarter of 2026 suggests demand for services remains solid, although reinsurance was weaker 23. The company cites exposure to insurance premium rates, exchange rates and interest rates, factors that could change revenue if the macro environment shifts 12.

Trends

  • Demand for health and retirement consultingtailwind

    Clients increasingly seek advice on health and retirement programs, supporting Mercer revenue 12.

  • Artificial intelligencemixed

    AI may reduce analysis costs but can also attract new competitors using generative tools, which could pressure prices 1.

  • Tariffs and lower interest ratesheadwind

    Lower interest rates reduce fiduciary income, and trade tensions may slow client economic growth 12.

  • Consolidation through acquisitionsmixed

    Acquisitions can add revenue and clients but bring integration costs and higher debt 12.

Competitive position

The company faces intense competition from other global, regional and local brokerage firms, from independent insurers selling directly, and from banks, consultants and online platforms 1. Competition is based on service sophistication, range, quality and cost, and the battle for talent is also intense 1.

In consulting, competitors include independent consulting, brokerage and outsourcing firms affiliated with accounting, technology and financial services firms, and new entrants using generative AI 1. Some clients manage investment services internally, which limits the addressable market 1.

  • Global insurance brokers

    Brokerage firms with global operations that compete directly in risk and insurance services 1.

  • Regional and local brokerage firms

    Regional and local operators competing in specific markets and client segments 1.

  • Insurers and reinsurers selling directly

    Insurers that distribute products without intermediaries create disintermediation pressure 1.

  • Consulting and outsourcing firms

    Firms affiliated with accounting, technology and financial services active in HR and investment consulting 1.

News & filings

In the press

The latest news item in our archive is from 18 Sept 2026; the newest SEC filing is from 27 Oct 2026. The press archive comes from the RSS feeds we follow and does not necessarily cover the latest event — the filings alongside do.

SEC filings

Sources

  1. [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · SEC / Marsh & McLennan Companies, Inc. (Marsh) · 09 Feb 2026
  2. [2] Form 10-Q, quarter ended 2026-09-30 · SEC / Marsh & McLennan Companies, Inc. (Marsh) · 15 Oct 2026
  3. [3] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / Marsh & McLennan Companies, Inc. (Marsh) · 15 Oct 2026

Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.