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olivLaw · US equity research

Antero Resources Corporation AR

Crude Petroleum & Natural Gas · SIC 1311 · Vertical: Crude Petroleum & Natural Gas (SIC 1311)

36.38USD−2.81% · 1 dayClose 05 Nov 2026

Antero Resources is an independent natural gas producer in the Appalachian Basin, focused on Marcellus and Utica shales and associated liquids. After the HG Energy acquisition, closed in February 2026, production reached a company record in the second quarter of 2026, and the company raised its 2026 production guidance. The current interest comes from the planned cost reduction and the acquisition's effect on cash flow, which could change the company's volatility profile if integration proceeds as planned.

The AI analysis may be outdated: new filings came after its sources (see the «AI analysis» section).

At the close of 05 Nov 2026, Antero Resources Corporation (AR) stock was 36.38 USD (−2.81% on the day), with market capitalisation 11.2 bn USD, P/E 8.2 on diluted EPS of 4.46 USD over the last 12 months, beta 0.65, 52-week range 31.38–45.15 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q3 2026): revenue of 1.6 bn USD (+28.7% YoY), net income of 367.1 m USD (+328.9% YoY), diluted EPS 1.19 USD.

Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.

Market cap
11.2 bn USD
shares as of 23 Oct 2026
P/E (TTM)
8.2
Diluted EPS TTM 4.46 · TTM to 30 Sept 2026
E/P (TTM)
12.26%
TTM to 30 Sept 2026
Dividend yield
unavailable
Beta (2y)
0.65
Volatility (1y) 38%
52-week range
31.3845.15

Price history

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Technical reading

RSI (14)
40.3
weak (30–45)
Bollinger (20, 2)
34.91 – 43.14
in the lower half of the band · %B 0.18 · band width 21.1%
SMA 50 / 200
37.60 / 36.93
mixed trend
MACD (12, 26, 9)
0.65 / 1.03
MACD below signal

Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).

Performance

CompanyS&P 500vs S&P 500Vertical median
1 month+1.8%−5.9%+7.8 pp—
3 months+4.2%−4.6%+8.9 pp—
6 months+0.0%+0.2%−0.2 pp—
Year to date+5.6%+7.4%−1.9 pp—
1 year+10.8%+8.2%+2.6 pp+15.7%
3 years+25.6%+68.4%−42.8 pp−2.1%
5 years+73.3%+56.5%+16.8 pp—
Max drawdown (1y)
−26.4%
27 Mar 2026 → 18 Jun 2026
Max drawdown (5y)
−58.4%
07 Jun 2022 → 04 May 2023
Compound annual growth (5y)
+11.6%
S&P 500 +9.4%

Price returns, dividends excluded.

Quarterly results

Latest quarter: Q3 2026 · 30 Sept 2026

Revenue
1.6 bn USD
+28.7% YoY
Net income
367.1 m USD
+328.9% YoY
Diluted EPS
1.19
+395.8% YoY
net / operating
23.5% / 25.1%

Quarterly margins

Quarterly statements · USD

Fiscal yearQ4 '24Q1 '25Q2 '25Q3 '25Q4 '25Q1 '26Q2 '26Q3 '26
Revenue1.2 bn1.4 bn1.3 bn1.2 bn1.4 bn1.9 bn1.6 bn1.6 bn
Operating income57.8 m271.5 m204.9 m118.1 m289.2 m729.5 m375.5 m391.8 m
Depreciation & amortisation193.7 m186.4 m187.6 m188.8 m187.0 m206.2 m227.3 m241.2 m
Pre-tax income54.6 m273.9 m214.8 m128.9 m272.9 m693.7 m365.4 m463.5 m
Income tax-104.2 m54.4 m48.2 m43.3 m69.9 m145.5 m79.0 m96.4 m
Net income158.8 m219.5 m166.6 m85.6 m202.9 m548.2 m286.4 m367.1 m
Diluted EPS0.49 ≈0.660.500.240.65 ≈1.720.901.19
Operating cash flow278.0 m457.7 m492.4 m ≈310.1 m ≈370.7 m859.1 m438.8 m ≈575.2 m ≈
Share repurchases—10.1 m74.9 m ≈51.4 m ≈83.0 k——55.7 m ≈

≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)

E/P over time

E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.

Today's P/E sits at the 28 percentile of its own 25-quarter history (min 2.3, median 16.8, max 432.2; quarters with earnings only).

Fiscal years

Fiscal year20182019202020212022202320242025
Revenue4.1 bn4.4 bn3.5 bn4.6 bn7.1 bn4.7 bn4.3 bn5.3 bn
Revenue YoY+13.2%+6.5%−20.8%+32.3%+54.5%−34.4%−7.6%+22.0%
Net income-45.7 m-293.1 m-1.3 bn-154.1 m2.0 bn297.3 m93.7 m674.6 m
Net income YoY−105.8%unavailableunavailableunavailableunavailable−85.1%−68.5%+619.9%
Diluted EPS-1.26-1.11-4.65-0.615.690.640.182.03
Diluted EPS YoY−164.9%unavailableunavailableunavailableunavailable−88.8%−71.9%+1,027.8%
net %-1.1%-6.6%-36.1%-3.3%28.0%6.4%2.2%12.8%
Free cash flow-128.6 m-318.7 m-138.7 m944.2 m2.1 bnunavailableunavailableunavailable

Reported results vs expectations

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Balance sheet & financial health

Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025

Cash
210.0 m USD
Financial debt
1.4 bn USD
Net debt
1.2 bn USD
Equity
7.7 bn USD
Total assets
13.2 bn USD
Debt / equity
0.18x
Current ratio
0.55x
ROE
9.0%
ROA
5.1%
FCF margin
unavailable

Financial statements (source on every figure)

Revenue and net income (USD)

Margins

Income statement · USD

Revenue
2023
4.7 bn
2024
4.3 bn
2025
5.3 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified

Operating income
2023
396.2 m
2024
460.0 k
2025
883.6 m

SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified

Depreciation & amortisation
2023
746.8 m
2024
762.1 m
2025
749.7 m

SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified

EBITDA
2023
1.1 bn ≈
2024
762.5 m ≈
2025
1.6 bn ≈

SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026derived

Pre-tax income
2023
361.0 m
2024
-24.5 m
2025
890.4 m

SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified

Income tax
2023
63.6 m
2024
-118.2 m
2025
215.9 m

SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified

Net income
2023
297.3 m
2024
93.7 m
2025
674.6 m

SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified

Diluted EPS
2023
0.64
2024
0.18
2025
2.03

SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified

Weighted average diluted shares
2023
311.6 m
2024
313.4 m
2025
312.4 m

SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified

Balance sheet · USD

Cash
2023
0
2024
0
2025
210.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified

Receivables
2023
42.6 m
2024
34.4 m
2025
33.8 m

SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified

Current assets
2023
475.7 m
2024
507.5 m
2025
831.8 m

SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified

Total assets
2023
13.5 bn
2024
13.0 bn
2025
13.2 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified

Accounts payable
2023
—
2024
—
2025
—

SEC (XBRL)· 15 Feb 2023verified

Long-term debt
2023
1.5 bn
2024
1.5 bn
2025
1.4 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified

Current liabilities
2023
1.5 bn
2024
1.4 bn
2025
1.5 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified

Total liabilities
2023
6.4 bn
2024
5.8 bn
2025
5.5 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified

Equity
2023
7.1 bn
2024
7.2 bn
2025
7.7 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified

Cash flow · USD

Operating cash flow
2023
994.7 m
2024
849.3 m
2025
1.6 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified

Capex
2023
—
2024
—
2025
—

SEC (XBRL)· 15 Feb 2023verified

Free cash flow
2023
—
2024
—
2025
—

SEC (XBRL)· 15 Feb 2023derived

Investing cash flow
2023
-1.1 bn
2024
-714.2 m
2025
-1.1 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified

Financing cash flow
2023
146.0 m
2024
-135.1 m
2025
-343.1 m

SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified

Share repurchases
2023
75.4 m
2024
—
2025
136.4 m

SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified

Computed indicators

Growth

Revenue growth (YoY)
22.0%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Revenue CAGR 3Y
-9.6%
computed by olivLawFY 2022 → FY 2025
Revenue CAGR 5Y
8.6%
computed by olivLawFY 2020 → FY 2025
EBIT growth (YoY)
191,997.0%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Net income growth (YoY)
619.9%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Net income CAGR 3Y
-30.4%
computed by olivLawFY 2022 → FY 2025
Net income CAGR 5Y
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
EPS growth (YoY)
1,027.8%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
EPS CAGR 3Y
-29.1%
computed by olivLawFY 2022 → FY 2025
EPS CAGR 5Y
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
FCF growth (YoY)
unavailable
input data missing

Profitability

Gross margin
unavailable
input data missing
EBITDA margin
40.9%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
EBIT margin
27.6%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Net margin
21.7%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
FCF margin
unavailable
input data missing

Returns

ROE
17.6%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
ROA
9.9%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
ROIC
14.1%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
ROCE
13.1%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Payout ratio (EPS)
unavailable
input data missing
Payout ratio (FCF)
unavailable
input data missing

Balance sheet

Net debt
2.3 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Net debt / EBITDA
0.9x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Debt / equity
0.3x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Interest coverage
unavailable
the reported interest expense is far older than the latest period (the filer changed its XBRL tag): a stale figure is not used

Liquidity

Current ratio
0.4x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Quick ratio
unavailable
input data missing
Cash ratio
0.0x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026

Cash

Operating cash flow
2.2 bn USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Capital expenditure
unavailable
input data missing
Free cash flow
unavailable
input data missing
FCF conversion
unavailable
input data missing
Cash conversion
84.8%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026

Efficiency

Days sales outstanding
2 days
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Days inventory outstanding
unavailable
input data missing
Days payables outstanding
unavailable
input data missing
Cash conversion cycle
unavailable
input data missing

Market and valuation

Market capitalisation
11.2 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Enterprise value
13.5 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Market cap / net income TTM
8.0x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
P/E (TTM)
8.2x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Earnings yield
12.3%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
P/B
1.3x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
P/S
1.7x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
EV/EBITDA
5.1x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
EV/EBIT
7.6x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
EV/Sales
2.1x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
P/FCF
unavailable
input data missing
FCF yield
unavailable
input data missing
Dividend yield
unavailable
no dividend in the structured statements; a missing line is not a confirmed zero
Shareholder yield (distributions)
0.8%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026

Risk

Altman Z
1.92
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026

Valuation

olivLaw classification

Neutral profile

Score: 43 / 100

A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.

Closing price

36.38 USD

05 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series

Market cap: 11.2 bn USD

Key indicators

Market capitalisation
11.2 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
P/E (TTM)
8.2x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
P/B
1.3x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
EV/EBITDA
5.1x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
ROE
17.6%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Net margin
21.7%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Revenue growth (YoY)
22.0%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Dividend yield
unavailable
no dividend in the structured statements; a missing line is not a confirmed zero

Coverage and freshness

24/37 reporting lines present
Latest full fiscal year: 2025
Latest reported period: 30 Sept 2026
Latest balance sheet date: 30 Sept 2026
Share count (cover of the latest filing), as of: 23 Oct 2026
Source: SEC (XBRL)published 28 Oct 2026
verified 1870derived 125

Score by group

  • Returns12
  • Growth0
  • Balance sheet36
  • Valuation66
  • Quality74

Estimated value range

Low
31.54
USD per share
Mid
43.38
USD per share
High
48.41
USD per share
Price: 36.38 USD
The price is within the range
Potential to the central value: 19.2% (value / price − 1)
Margin of safety: 16.1% (1 − price / value)
Agreement between methods: same comparison basis (not independent confirmations) · 2 methods used · 1 independent bases

The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 24.98 – 55.43 USD.

Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.

Method ranges (USD per share)

— — Mid · ▏ Price

Valuation methods

  • DCF (discounted cash flow)unavailable · the input exists, but its latest figure is far older than the latest reported period: not used
  • Peers: EV/EBITDA24.98 – 41.40 (Mid 36.67)
    12 companies used · median multiple 5.1x · quartiles 3.8x – 5.7x
    APA, BKV, EOG, EQT, EXE, FANG, GPOR, MGY, MUR, OVV, VIST, WTI
  • Peers: P/E38.10 – 55.43 (Mid 50.09)
    20 companies used · median multiple 11.2x · quartiles 8.5x – 12.4x
    ANNA, APA, BKV, DMLP, DVN, EOG, EQT, EXE, GPOR, KGEI, KRP, MGY, MUR, MXC, OVV, OXY, PNRG, PR, VIST, WDS
  • Dividend discount (DDM)unavailable · the company pays no dividend: a dividend model needs an explicit initiation assumption
Multiple comparisons use the SIC vertical: Crude Petroleum & Natural Gas (SIC 1311)

Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.

Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)

Risk-free rate
4.3%
Equity risk premium
5.0%
Beta (default)
1.00
Cost of equity
9.3%
Terminal growth
2.5%

Factor scorecard

Neutral profile · Score 43/100

FactorValueScoreWeight used
ROIC · Quality14.1%79 (vs peers)14%
Net margin · Quality21.7%65 (vs peers)8%
FCF conversion · Qualityunavailableunavailable—
Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth-9.6%0 (on a fixed band)11%
EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth-29.1%0 (on a fixed band)11%
Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet0.9x50 (vs peers)14%
Interest coverage · Balance sheetunavailableunavailable—
Current ratio · Balance sheet0.4x0 (on a fixed band)6%
P/E (TTM) · Valuation8.2x82 (vs peers)14%
EV/EBITDA · Valuation5.1x50 (vs peers)14%
FCF yield · Valuationunavailableunavailable—
Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns0.8%12 (on a fixed band)8%
Payout ratio (FCF) · Returnsunavailableunavailable—

Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.

Score groups

  • Balance sheet36/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
  • Growth0/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
  • Quality74/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
  • Returns· partial12/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
  • Valuation66/100 · 2/3 factors with a value

A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.

Memo

ANTERO RESOURCES CORPORATION (AR). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2026-09-30.

Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 5.3 bn USD in 2025; YoY growth 22.0%; net margin 21.7%; ROE 17.6%; net debt/EBITDA 0.9x.

The estimated value range is 31.54–48.41 USD per share (median of 2 methods, agreement: same basis (multiples on one peer group, not independent confirmations)); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 43.38 USD, the price of 36.38 USD leaves a potential of 19.2% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of 16.1% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.

olivLaw score 43/100, methodological classification: neutral profile (score, margin of safety and method agreement together; not a judgement of the right price). Groups assessed only in part: returns. Not investment advice.

Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.

What supports the thesis

  • ROIC: 14.1%
  • P/E (TTM): 8.2x

What contradicts it

  • Revenue CAGR 3Y: -9.6%
  • EPS CAGR 3Y: -29.1%
  • Current ratio: 0.4x
  • Shareholder yield (distributions): 0.8%

Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): FCF conversion, Interest coverage, FCF yield, Payout ratio (FCF).

Versus the vertical median

Crude Petroleum & Natural Gas (SIC 1311) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 39 companies

Multiples and returns vs the median

P/E
8.2x
vertical median 11.5x
below median (−29.1%)
EV/EBITDA
5.1x
vertical median 5.1x
at median
P/S
1.7x
vertical median 2.3x
below median (−26.2%)
P/B
1.3x
vertical median 1.2x
at median
ROE
17.6%
vertical median 7.9%
above median (+122.9%)
Net margin
21.7%
vertical median 13.9%
above median (+56.3%)
EBIT margin
27.6%
vertical median 19.1%
above median (+44.2%)
Revenue YoY
22.0%
vertical median -1.5%
above median
Net debt/EBITDA
0.9x
vertical median 0.9x
at median
Dividend yield
—
vertical median 2.6%

Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)

Companies in the vertical

Market capP/EROENet marginRevenue YoY1A / 3A
SHELShell plc569.7 bn31.910.1%6.7%−6.1%+36% / +52%
EOGEog Resources, Inc.75.1 bn9.425.8%27.5%−4.5%+34% / +18%
OXYOccidental Petroleum Corporation56.3 bn8.518.9%33.7%−1.9%+34% / −5%
FANGDiamondback Energy, Inc.50.1 bn24.55.3%11.0%+35.8%+18% / +16%
DVNDevon Energy Corp47.2 bn10.211.5%16.7%+7.8%+16% / −5%
WDSWoodside Energy Group Ltd40.8 bn15.17.6%20.9%−1.5%+31% / +5%
EQTEqt Corporation31.7 bn12.010.9%28.4%+63.9%−17% / +27%
EXEExpand Energy Corporation19.7 bn7.414.6%19.8%+186.3%−30% / +6%
PRPermian Resources Corporation17.9 bn11.114.3%25.0%+1.3%+47% / +62%
OVVOvintiv Inc.16.4 bn12.312.1%12.8%−2.7%+49% / +37%
APAApa Corporation14.6 bn7.133.0%—unavailable+74% / +21%
ARAntero Resources Corporation11.2 bn8.217.6%21.7%+22.0%+11% / +26%
MGYMagnolia Oil & Gas Corp6.3 bn14.513.8%25.8%−0.3%+2% / +9%
VISTVista Energy, S.A.B. de C.V.5.5 bn12.433.3%29.0%+41.0%+17% / +86%
MURMurphy Oil Corporation5.2 bn11.38.9%15.0%−10.2%+13% / −15%
CRCCalifornia Resources Corp4.0 bn—-15.5%-18.1%+14.7%−5% / −11%
GPORGulfport Energy Corp2.7 bn6.025.9%31.7%+48.5%−30% / +13%
BKVBkv Corporation2.0 bn8.610.9%15.6%+9.9%−34% / unavailable
DMLPDorchester Minerals, L.P.1.4 bn13.2—49.8%−5.4%+24% / −6%
KOSKosmos Energy Ltd.1.3 bn—-58.8%-27.4%−23.1%+96% / −68%
TBNTamboran Resources Corporation981.3 m—-4.8%—unavailable+18% / unavailable
GRNTGranite Ridge Resources, Inc.616.2 m—-8.8%-9.3%+18.5%−9% / −21%
WTIW&T Offshore, Inc.483.3 m——-8.4%−4.5%+76% / −7%
KRPKimbell Royalty Partners, LP403.4 m4.2—27.8%+7.9%+21% / −2%
PNRGPrimeEnergy Resources Corporation286.2 m17.511.7%13.9%−20.5%−2% / +69%

1- and 3-year price returns: for AR from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.

olivLaw engine forecast

The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.

The engine has no published run for this company yet.

Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)

Illustrative scenarios

Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.

Bear
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Base
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Bull
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Nothing is saved.

Estimated price (USD)

Estimated priceBearBaseBull
1 years
19.94
Total return -45% · Per year -45%
35.42
Total return -3% · Per year -3%
53.60
Total return 47% · Per year 47%
3 years
15.83
Total return -56% · Per year -24%
31.97
Total return -12% · Per year -4%
53.60
Total return 47% · Per year 14%
5 years
12.57
Total return -65% · Per year -19%
28.85
Total return -21% · Per year -5%
53.60
Total return 47% · Per year 8%
What moves the 3-year price the most
  • Exit P/E± 7.99
  • Net margin± 5.59
  • Annual revenue growth± 5.05
  • Annual dilution± 0.47

AI analysis

AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 29 Jul 2026; since then the company filed 8-K (28 Oct 2026 · results), 10-Q (28 Oct 2026).

In brief

Antero Resources is an independent natural gas producer in the Appalachian Basin, focused on Marcellus and Utica shales and associated liquids. After the HG Energy acquisition, closed in February 2026, production reached a company record in the second quarter of 2026, and the company raised its 2026 production guidance. The current interest comes from the planned cost reduction and the acquisition's effect on cash flow, which could change the company's volatility profile if integration proceeds as planned.

SWOT

Strengths

  • Consolidated position in the Appalachian Basin, with large proved reserves and a multi-year drilling inventory, plus record production in the second quarter of 2026.
  • Lower cash operating costs and the HG Energy integration give a base for better margins.
  • Liquids diversification and the hedging strategy could reduce cash flow volatility.

Weaknesses

  • High exposure to natural gas prices, with realized prices below Henry Hub in the Appalachian Basin.
  • Higher debt after acquisitions, with borrowings that must be repaid over a relatively short horizon.
  • A significant part of net leasehold acreage is undeveloped, which could limit future production.

Opportunities

  • Marcellus acquisitions and development of additional acreage could push production above guidance.
  • Dry gas development and long lateral wells could improve returns per drilling location.
  • Share repurchases and debt reduction could support shareholder value if cash flow grows.

Threats

  • Natural gas and NGL prices could stay low for an extended period, which could lead to asset write-downs.
  • Markets could become unstable because of supply and demand imbalances or geopolitical conflicts.
  • Regulatory changes and taxes could raise production and compliance costs.

Risks

  • Commodity price volatilityhigh

    Natural gas, NGL and oil prices depend on factors largely outside the company's control, and a prolonged decline could reduce revenue and cash flow 1.

  • Asset impairment riskhigh

    If prices fall far enough, the carrying value of properties could be written down, which would hit net income in those periods 1.

  • Undeveloped reservesmedium

    A large share of proved reserves is undeveloped, and cost overruns or delays could make some projects uneconomic 1.

  • Hedging effectsmedium

    Hedges can limit the benefit of price increases, and hedge counterparties could fail to perform 1.

  • Acquisition integrationmedium

    Integrating HG Energy and the cost reduction plan could delay or reduce the benefits the company expects 3.

Investment thesis

What would need to be true (bull case)

  • Record second-quarter production and raised 2026 guidance suggest a stronger operating base after the acquisitions 3.
  • If the cash cost reduction of 0.70 USD per Mcfe is achieved, margins could rise significantly 3.
  • The reversion of the Martica overriding royalty interests could add cash flow in the quarters ahead 3.

What would break the thesis

  • If gas prices remain weak, the cost advantages could prove insufficient to sustain margins 1.
  • Higher debt after the acquisitions could limit flexibility for buybacks and investment 2.
  • Some of the reported results are unaudited and could differ from final audited figures 3.

What to watch

  • Realizarea obiectivului de reducere a costurilor cash2028
  • Delivery of the cash cost reduction target2028
  • Production against the revised 2026 guidanceQ3 2026
  • Effect of hedges and gas prices on cash flowQ1 2027

Products, market & competition

AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 29 Jul 2026; since then the company filed 8-K (28 Oct 2026 · results), 10-Q (28 Oct 2026).

The business

The 2026 acquisitions changed the scale of the business. The HG Production acquisition from HG Energy, valued at 2.8 bn USD in cash, brought assets in the core of the Marcellus in West Virginia and closed on February 3, 2026 1. At the same time, the company sold its Utica Shale properties in Ohio for 800 mn USD in cash, a deal closed on February 23, 2026, with proceeds used to repay long-term debt 12. The company reports three segments: exploration and production, its equity method investment in Antero Midstream, and marketing 1.

Segments

Antero Midstream and marketing

The company holds an equity method investment in Antero Midstream and runs a marketing segment for its products. Commercial arrangements with Antero Midstream are being modified to cover well pad compression and water services after the HG Energy acquisition 12.

Trends

  • HG Energy integration and cost reductiontailwind

    Integrating the HG Energy assets and the plan to cut cash costs by 0.70 USD per Mcfe through year-end 2028 could improve margins if the targets are met 3. The company says it is already nearly halfway toward that target 3.

Competitive position

Antero operates in the Appalachian Basin, where it competes with other natural gas producers targeting the same Marcellus and Utica shales. Competitive pressure shows up in sale prices, which remain below Henry Hub because of regional supply 1. The company's recent acquisitions are meant to strengthen its position in the Marcellus 3.

The competitive advantage the company describes rests on lower costs and liquids diversification, which could reduce its dependence on gas prices compared with more exposed producers 3. The size of its market share cannot be determined from the sources provided.

  • Other Appalachian Basin producers

    Natural gas producers competing for the same assets and regional market, as described in the risk factors of the annual report.

  • Competing Marcellus producers

    Companies active in the same Marcellus area of West Virginia where Antero is expanding.

  • Utica gas producers

    Companies active in the Utica basin in Ohio, an area Antero exited through a sale.

  • NGL producers

    Other producers competing in the C2 and C3+ liquids market into which Antero diversifies its revenue.

News & filings

In the press

No news in our archive over the last 180 days.

SEC filings

Sources

  1. [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · SEC / Antero Resources Corporation · 11 Feb 2026
  2. [2] Form 10-Q, quarter ended 2026-06-30 · SEC / Antero Resources Corporation · 29 Jul 2026
  3. [3] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / Antero Resources Corporation · 29 Jul 2026

Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.