olivLaw · US equity research
Magnolia Oil & Gas Corporation MGY
Crude Petroleum & Natural Gas · SIC 1311 · Vertical: Crude Petroleum & Natural Gas (SIC 1311)
Magnolia Oil & Gas is an independent oil and gas producer focused on the Eagle Ford and Austin Chalk in South Texas. Following the WildFire Energy acquisition, it is expanding its production scale, while debt reduction remains a priority, with net debt of about 1.9 billion USD at the end of the third quarter of 2026.
The AI analysis may be outdated: new filings came after its sources (see the «AI analysis» section).
At the close of 04 Nov 2026, Magnolia Oil & Gas Corporation (MGY) stock was 23.37 USD (−5.23% on the day), with market capitalisation 5.5 bn USD, P/E 79.4 on diluted EPS of 0.29 USD over the last 12 months, dividend yield 2.70%, beta 0.61, 52-week range 21.24–32.36 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q2 2026): revenue of 478.8 m USD (+50.1% YoY), net income of 181.8 m USD (+132.7% YoY).
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
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Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 34.4
- weak (30–45)
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 23.55 – 27.03
- below the lower band · %B -0.05 · band width 13.8%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 25.55 / 27.11
- downtrend (price < SMA50 < SMA200)
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- -0.04 / 0.12
- MACD below signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | S&P 500 | vs S&P 500 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | −2.6% | −1.1% | −1.5 pp | — |
| 3 months | −1.5% | −0.5% | −1.0 pp | — |
| 6 months | −18.4% | +4.4% | −22.8 pp | — |
| Year to date | +6.8% | +12.3% | −5.6 pp | — |
| 1 year | +6.7% | +13.5% | −6.9 pp | +19.9% |
| 3 years | +2.3% | +76.4% | −74.1 pp | +8.7% |
| 5 years | +13.0% | +63.7% | −50.7 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
Latest quarter: Q2 2026 · 30 Jun 2026
Quarterly margins
Quarterly statements · USD
| Fiscal year | Q3 '24 | Q4 '24 | Q1 '25 | Q2 '25 | Q3 '25 | Q4 '25 | Q1 '26 | Q2 '26 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 333.1 m | 326.6 m | 350.3 m | 319.0 m | 324.9 m | 317.6 m | 358.5 m | 478.8 m |
| Operating income | 129.0 m | 124.1 m | 135.8 m | 107.8 m | 101.5 m | 94.1 m | 127.8 m | 239.5 m |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 107.3 m | 105.3 m | 105.9 m | 107.1 m | 110.6 m | 114.2 m | 113.4 m | 116.5 m |
| Pre-tax income | 132.4 m | 110.9 m | 131.8 m | 102.0 m | 95.4 m | 88.2 m | 121.7 m | 232.4 m |
| Income tax | 26.5 m | 22.2 m | 25.1 m | 20.9 m | 17.2 m | 16.8 m | 20.9 m | 50.6 m |
| Net income | 99.8 m | 85.6 m | 102.9 m | 78.1 m | 75.5 m | 68.8 m | 99.8 m | 181.8 m |
| Operating cash flow | 217.9 m ≈ | 222.6 m | 224.5 m | 198.7 m ≈ | 247.1 m ≈ | 208.4 m | 197.6 m | 384.0 m ≈ |
| Dividends paid | 24.7 m ≈ | 25.1 m | 28.9 m | 28.4 m ≈ | 28.1 m ≈ | 27.8 m | 30.5 m | 30.8 m ≈ |
| Share repurchases | — | — | 52.4 m | — | — | — | — | — |
≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Today's P/E sits at the 100 percentile of its own 1-quarter history (min 42.8, median 42.8, max 42.8; quarters with earnings only).
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2017 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 403.2 m | 942.2 m | 541.3 m | 1.1 bn | 1.7 bn | 1.2 bn | 1.3 bn | 1.3 bn |
| Revenue YoY | unavailable | unavailable | −42.5% | +99.2% | +57.1% | −27.6% | +7.2% | −0.3% |
| Net income | 178.9 m | 50.2 m | -1.2 bn | 417.3 m | 893.8 m | 388.3 m | 366.0 m | 325.3 m |
| Net income YoY | unavailable | unavailable | −2,507.3% | unavailable | +114.2% | −56.6% | −5.7% | −11.1% |
| Diluted EPS | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable |
| Diluted EPS YoY | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable |
| net % | 44.4% | 5.3% | -223.2% | 38.7% | 52.7% | 31.6% | 27.8% | 24.8% |
| Free cash flow | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable |
Reported results vs expectations
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Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025
- Cash
- 266.8 m USD
- Financial debt
- 393.3 m USD
- Net debt
- 126.5 m USD
- Equity
- 2.0 bn USD
- Total assets
- 2.9 bn USD
- Debt / equity
- 0.20x
- Current ratio
- 1.54x
- ROE
- 16.4%
- ROA
- 11.4%
- FCF margin
- unavailable
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (USD)
Margins
Income statement · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 541.3 m | 1.1 bn | 1.7 bn | 1.2 bn | 1.3 bn | 1.3 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified |
| Operating income | -1.9 bn | 602.6 m | 1.1 bn | 534.5 m | 512.0 m | 439.2 m | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 283.4 m | 187.7 m | 243.2 m | 324.8 m | 414.5 m | 437.8 m | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified |
| EBITDA | -1.6 bn ≈ | 790.3 m ≈ | 1.3 bn ≈ | 859.3 m ≈ | 926.5 m ≈ | 876.9 m ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026derived |
| Pre-tax income | -1.9 bn | 568.6 m | 1.1 bn | 549.8 m | 493.1 m | 417.4 m | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified |
| Income tax | -79.3 m | 8.9 m | 6.6 m | 107.2 m | 95.8 m | 80.1 m | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified |
| Net income | -1.2 bn | 417.3 m | 893.8 m | 388.3 m | 366.0 m | 325.3 m | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified |
| Weighted average diluted shares | 166.3 m | 175.4 m | 187.9 m | 188.4 m | 186.5 m | 185.6 m | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified |
| Dividend per share | — | 0.08 | 0.40 | 0.46 | 0.52 | 0.60 | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating income + Depreciation & amortisation.
Balance sheet · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 192.6 m | 367.0 m | 675.4 m | 401.1 m | 260.0 m | 266.8 m | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified |
| Receivables | 81.6 m | 149.8 m | 170.8 m | 189.7 m | 123.8 m | 116.5 m | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified |
| Current assets | 281.5 m | 517.9 m | 850.7 m | 591.3 m | 410.8 m | 442.4 m | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified |
| Intangibles (excl. goodwill) | 9.3 m | 0 | — | — | — | — | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2022verified |
| Total assets | 1.5 bn | 1.7 bn | 2.6 bn | 2.8 bn | 2.8 bn | 2.9 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified |
| Accounts payable | 62.6 m | 127.9 m | 202.8 m | 193.2 m | 181.1 m | 177.6 m | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified |
| Long-term debt | 391.1 m | 388.1 m | 390.4 m | 392.8 m | 392.5 m | 393.3 m | SEC (XBRL)· 07 May 2026verified |
| Current liabilities | 128.9 m | 218.5 m | 340.3 m | 314.9 m | 290.3 m | 288.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified |
| Equity | 839.4 m | 1.0 bn | 1.7 bn | 1.9 bn | 2.0 bn | 2.0 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified |
Cash flow · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | 310.1 m | 788.5 m | 1.3 bn | 855.8 m | 920.9 m | 878.6 m | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified |
| Investing cash flow | -270.0 m | -243.4 m | -518.9 m | -814.9 m | -655.1 m | -540.7 m | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified |
| Financing cash flow | -30.2 m | -370.6 m | -469.3 m | -315.2 m | -406.8 m | -331.2 m | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified |
| Dividends paid | 0 | 14.1 m | 75.2 m | 88.1 m | 97.6 m | 113.1 m | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified |
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
Risk
Valuation
olivLaw classification
Score: 52 / 100
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
(margin_of_safety <= -0.25 & agreement in ['high', 'medium'])
Closing price
04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 5.5 bn USD
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
- Valuation37
- Returns30
- Quality81
- Balance sheet80
- Growth0
Estimated value range
The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 7.88 – 27.09 USD.
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Method ranges (USD per share)
— — Mid · ▏ Price
Valuation methods
- DCF (discounted cash flow)unavailable · input data missing
- Peers: EV/EBITDA15.12 – 24.22 (Mid 20.03)12 companies used · median multiple 4.8x · quartiles 3.6x – 5.7xAPA, DEC, EOG, EQT, EXE, FANG, MNR, MTDR, OVV, PARR, REPX, TALO
- Peers: P/E15.03 – 27.09 (Mid 18.32)20 companies used · median multiple 10.2x · quartiles 8.4x – 15.1xAPA, CKX, DEC, DMLP, DVN, EOG, EQT, EXE, FANG, GPRK, KRP, MNR, MTDR, OVV, OXY, PARR, PR, REPX, SD, TTE
- Dividend discount (DDM)7.88 – 10.60 (Mid 9.04)
Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 4.3%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 9.3%
- Terminal growth
- 2.5%
Factor scorecard
Unattractive profile · Score 52/100
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | 20.6% | 78 (vs peers) | 16% |
| Net margin · Quality | 28.8% | 87 (vs peers) | 9% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | -8.2% | 0 (on a fixed band) | 13% |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | 0.1x | 86 (vs peers) | 16% |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 1.6x | 65 (on a fixed band) | 6% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | 13.0x | 36 (vs peers) | 16% |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | 5.5x | 38 (vs peers) | 16% |
| FCF yield · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | 2.1% | 30 (on a fixed band) | 9% |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet80/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
- Growth· partial0/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
- Quality81/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
- Returns· partial30/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
- Valuation37/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
Magnolia Oil & Gas Corp (MGY). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2026-06-30.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 1.3 bn USD in 2025; YoY growth -0.3%; net margin 28.8%; ROE 20.5%; net debt/EBITDA 0.1x.
The estimated value range is 15.03–24.22 USD per share (median of 3 methods, agreement: medium); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 18.32 USD, the price of 23.37 USD leaves a potential of -21.6% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of -27.5% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
olivLaw score 52/100, methodological classification: unattractive profile (score, margin of safety and method agreement together; not a judgement of the right price). Groups assessed only in part: growth, returns. Not investment advice.
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- ROIC: 20.6%
- Net margin: 28.8%
- Net debt / EBITDA: 0.1x
What contradicts it
- Revenue CAGR 3Y: -8.2%
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): FCF conversion, EPS CAGR 3Y, Interest coverage, FCF yield, Payout ratio (FCF).
Versus the vertical median
Crude Petroleum & Natural Gas (SIC 1311) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 39 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TTETotalEnergies SE | 199.6 bn | 15.7 | 11.3% | 6.5% | −6.2% | +38% / +33% |
| PBRPetrobras - Petroleo Brasileiro SA | 145.9 bn | 33.8 | 10.9% | 8.2% | −10.7% | +56% / +28% |
| EOGEog Resources, Inc. | 77.1 bn | 11.4 | 22.5% | 25.4% | −4.5% | +36% / +19% |
| OXYOccidental Petroleum Corporation | 57.3 bn | 8.6 | 18.9% | 33.7% | −1.9% | +37% / −3% |
| FANGDiamondback Energy, Inc. | 51.1 bn | 25.0 | 5.3% | 11.0% | +35.8% | +20% / +18% |
| DVNDevon Energy Corp | 48.5 bn | 10.5 | 11.5% | 16.7% | +7.8% | +19% / −2% |
| EQTEqt Corporation | 32.9 bn | 12.5 | 10.9% | 28.4% | +63.9% | −14% / +31% |
| EXEExpand Energy Corporation | 20.2 bn | 7.6 | 14.6% | 19.8% | +186.3% | −28% / +9% |
| PRPermian Resources Corporation | 18.8 bn | 14.9 | 11.5% | 21.5% | +1.3% | +55% / +71% |
| OVVOvintiv Inc. | 16.8 bn | 12.7 | 12.1% | 12.8% | −2.7% | +53% / +41% |
| APAApa Corporation | 15.6 bn | 9.4 | 25.9% | — | unavailable | +78% / +24% |
| MTDRMatador Resources Company | 6.2 bn | 8.6 | 12.8% | 19.9% | +5.5% | +19% / −13% |
| MGYMagnolia Oil & Gas Corp | 5.5 bn | 13.0 | 20.5% | 28.8% | −0.3% | +7% / +2% |
| CRCCalifornia Resources Corp | 4.3 bn | — | -15.5% | -18.1% | +14.7% | +1% / −6% |
| PARRPar Pacific Holdings, Inc. | 3.5 bn | 3.6 | 50.9% | 9.8% | −6.4% | +53% / +103% |
| TALOTalos Energy Inc. | 2.6 bn | — | -18.1% | -18.4% | −9.8% | +36% / +12% |
| NOGNorthern Oil And Gas, Inc. | 2.4 bn | — | -22.1% | -25.4% | +11.2% | −1% / −40% |
| MNRMach Natural Resources LP | 1.7 bn | 19.1 | — | 7.4% | +21.2% | −15% / −43% |
| DMLPDorchester Minerals, L.P. | 1.4 bn | 15.6 | — | 45.5% | −5.4% | +27% / −5% |
| REPXRiley Exploration Permian, Inc. | 948.6 m | 9.2 | 16.8% | 17.3% | −4.4% | +57% / +74% |
| DECDiversified Energy Company | 942.7 m | 16.7 | 11.0% | 4.9% | +141.5% | −11% / +1,434% |
| EGYVaalco Energy Inc | 568.0 m | — | -24.4% | -31.1% | −25.0% | +51% / +16% |
| GPRKGeoPark LTD | 487.6 m | 9.9 | 22.1% | 10.1% | −25.5% | +16% / +4% |
| SDSandridge Energy, Inc. | 468.3 m | 5.7 | 16.2% | 46.1% | +24.8% | −11% / −9% |
| KRPKimbell Royalty Partners, LP | 415.5 m | 4.1 | — | 29.7% | +7.9% | +24% / +1% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for MGY from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (USD)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | 12.49 Total return -47% · Per year -47% | 22.20 Total return -5% · Per year -5% | 33.59 Total return 44% · Per year 44% |
| 3 years | 9.92 Total return -58% · Per year -25% | 20.04 Total return -14% · Per year -5% | 33.59 Total return 44% · Per year 13% |
| 5 years | 7.88 Total return -66% · Per year -20% | 18.08 Total return -23% · Per year -5% | 33.59 Total return 44% · Per year 8% |
- Exit P/E± 5.01
- Net margin± 3.51
- Annual revenue growth± 3.17
- Annual dilution± 0.29
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 01 Oct 2026; since then the company filed 8-K (04 Nov 2026 · results).
In brief
Magnolia Oil & Gas is an independent oil and gas producer focused on the Eagle Ford and Austin Chalk in South Texas. Following the WildFire Energy acquisition, it is expanding its production scale, while debt reduction remains a priority, with net debt of about 1.9 billion USD at the end of the third quarter of 2026 3.
SWOT
Strengths
- A concentrated and contiguous position in South Texas, with efficient operations and a clearly defined organic growth strategy 13.
- Disciplined capital allocation, with a stated aim to spend within cash flow and keep leverage low 1.
- Rapid progress in reducing debt after the acquisition, which strengthens the balance sheet 3.
Weaknesses
Opportunities
Risks
- Commodity price volatilityhigh
Oil, gas and NGL prices can fluctuate sharply, and a prolonged period of low prices could reduce revenue, borrowing capacity and investment 1.
- Dependence on third-party infrastructuremedium
If transport or storage facilities are not available on reasonable terms, production could be reduced or temporarily shut in 1.
- Uncertainty in reserve estimatesmedium
Reserve estimates rely on many assumptions, and actual recoveries can differ significantly from those estimates 1.
- Acquisition integration riskmedium
Integrating the WildFire assets and achieving the estimated synergies depend on operational execution and on price developments 3.
- Geopolitical and regulatory riskhigh
Changes in energy policy, sanctions and tariffs can affect prices, costs and supply 12.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- A larger scale in the Eagle Ford and Austin Chalk, together with estimated synergies, could support cash flow and production growth if integration proceeds as planned 3.
- Rapid debt reduction and the share repurchase program could strengthen the balance sheet and increase capital returns to shareholders 3.
- Costless collar hedges could protect cash flow in periods of low prices while keeping part of the upside 3.
What would break the thesis
- The high share of oil in revenue makes the company sensitive to price volatility, especially if geopolitical tensions persist 12.
- The acquisition adds operational complexity and one-time costs, and realisation of the synergies is not assured 3.
- Reliance on third parties for transport and storage could limit sales during periods of infrastructure congestion 1.
What to watch
- Third-quarter 2026 results and updated guidanceQ3 2026
- Realisation of at least one-third of the estimated synergiesyear-end 2026
- Trajectory of net debt against the 0.5x EBITDA target2027
- Execution of the 2027 production and capital programmenext 10-K
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 01 Oct 2026; since then the company filed 8-K (04 Nov 2026 · results).
The business
Magnolia is an independent oil and natural gas company engaged in acquiring, developing, exploring and producing oil, natural gas and NGLs, with one reportable segment in the United States 1. Its properties are located mainly in the Karnes and Giddings areas of South Texas, where it targets the Eagle Ford Shale and Austin Chalk formations 1. Its business model emphasizes disciplined capital allocation, free cash flow and reinvestment, aiming to spend within cash flow 1. Total revenues in 2025 were 1311.8 million USD, roughly flat versus 2024 1.
The WildFire Energy acquisition, completed in 2026, added complementary assets in the Eagle Ford and Austin Chalk, and management estimates the combined business could grow organically by 4 to 5 percent annually for both oil and total production 3. The company sold non-core assets in Dimmit and Zavala and received additional acreage in Gonzales County, increasing its interest in a contiguous block of undeveloped land 3. Guidance for the fourth quarter of 2026 calls for 159-161 Mboe/d of production, about 49-50 percent oil 3.
Segments
Oil
Oil accounted for 70 percent of 2025 revenues, at an average price of 63.18 USD per barrel, down from 74.66 USD in 2024 1. In the first half of 2026 oil revenues were 631.1 million USD 2. Guidance for the fourth quarter calls for an oil share of 49-50 percent of production, with part of it hedged through costless collars 3.
Market context
The oil and gas market is dominated by price volatility, influenced by OPEC and OPEC+ decisions, the Russia-Ukraine conflict and Middle East tensions 12. The military conflict involving Iran has materially disrupted global energy markets, including shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, raising the risk of supply interruptions 2. For Magnolia, price stability depends on its ability to transport and sell output from its Texas areas, where infrastructure is partly controlled by third parties 1.
Demand and prices are also shaped by trade tariffs, sanctions on producing countries and inflation, which remains elevated compared with history 12. If these conditions persist, operating costs and access to capital could remain uncertain for producers in South Texas 2.
Trends
- Consolidation in the Eagle Fordtailwind
The WildFire acquisition and non-core asset sales point to a concentration of operations on a larger contiguous acreage in Karnes and Giddings, which could bring operational efficiencies 3.
- Oil price volatilityheadwind
Prices are affected by geopolitical conflicts and producer decisions, and a prolonged period of low prices could reduce cash flow and investment plans 12.
- Hedging with costless collarsmixed
The company expanded its oil hedges through costless collars, which protect a floor price but limit gains if prices rise above the ceiling 3.
- Lower drilling and completion coststailwind
Lower well costs and operating efficiencies allowed higher drilling, completion and production activity in 2024 and 2025, supporting high margins 1.
Competitive position
Magnolia operates in a fragmented industry where competition is for acreage, equipment, qualified personnel and transport capacity, and the company notes it does not control most transport and storage facilities 1. In the Eagle Ford and Austin Chalk, competing activity can influence access to infrastructure and service costs 13.
Following the WildFire acquisition, Magnolia aims to be the leading operator in the Eagle Ford and Austin Chalk, with greater scale and operational efficiencies across a contiguous asset base 3. Its position relative to other operators is not detailed in the available sources.
- Other independent operators in the Eagle Ford and Austin Chalk
The sources analysed do not name competitors; in its communication the company compares itself with a peer group average without naming peers.
- Transport and storage operators
Companies that control pipelines and processing facilities influence market access, though the sources do not name them.
- Producers in other Texas oil areas
Competition for acreage and qualified personnel in South Texas is mentioned only generically in the risk factors.
- OPEC and OPEC+ producers
Decisions by these producer groups influence oil prices and are a major external factor for the company.
Links, dependencies and risks
Who the company is tied to, from its own SEC filings (customers, suppliers, production, partners, competitors, countries, regulation), from the 5 %+ holders' statements (13D/13G) and from what other companies say about it. Click a node for its evidence; on a listed company the graph moves to it.
Loading the links…
News & filings
In the press
- JPMorgan Bets Magnolia (MGY) Can Break to New HighsYahoo Finance — News · 16 Sept 2026 · EN
- Magnolia Oil & Gas (MGY) Doubles Profits While Betting Big On GrowthYahoo Finance — News · 05 Sept 2026 · EN
- Diamond Hill Stayed Focused on Magnolia Oil & Gas (MGY) After the Geopolitical SelloffYahoo Finance — News · 03 Sept 2026 · EN
- Vulnerability in Magnolia CMS softwareCERT Polska · 10 Aug 2026 · EN
- Magnolia Oil & Gas Is in Lead to Acquire WildFire for Over $4 BillionBloomberg Markets · 26 Jun 2026 · EN
The latest news item in our archive is from 16 Sept 2026; the newest SEC filing is from 04 Nov 2026. The press archive comes from the RSS feeds we follow and does not necessarily cover the latest event — the filings alongside do.
SEC filings
- Current report04 Nov 2026Results of operations · Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report01 Oct 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report14 Sept 2026Material agreement · Acquisition or disposition of assets · Creation of a direct financial obligation · Item 3.02 · Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
- Quarterly report06 Aug 2026
- Current report05 Aug 2026Material agreement · Creation of a direct financial obligation · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report05 Aug 2026Results of operations · Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report23 Jul 2026Other events · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report22 Jul 2026Other events · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report22 Jul 2026Other events · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report20 Jul 2026Other events · Financial statements and exhibits
Sources
- [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · SEC / Magnolia Oil & Gas Corporation · 12 Feb 2026
- [2] Form 10-Q, quarter ended 2026-06-30 · SEC / Magnolia Oil & Gas Corporation · 06 Aug 2026
- [3] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / Magnolia Oil & Gas Corporation · 01 Oct 2026
Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.