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olivLaw · US equity research

Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. – Petrobras PBR

Crude Petroleum & Natural Gas · SIC 1311 · Vertical: Crude Petroleum & Natural Gas (SIC 1311)

19.61USD−6.97% · 1 dayClose 04 Nov 2026

Petrobras is the oil and natural gas company controlled by the Brazilian state, active in exploration, production, refining, transport and marketing of hydrocarbons. Its 2025 annual report describes a company reorganising its portfolio and strategy around the Business Plan 2026-30.

The AI analysis may be outdated: new filings came after its sources (see the «AI analysis» section).

At the close of 04 Nov 2026, Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. – Petrobras (PBR) stock was 19.61 USD (−6.97% on the day), with market capitalisation 145.9 bn USD, P/E 33.8 on diluted EPS of 0.58 USD over the last 12 months, beta 0.33, 52-week range 11.54–26.16 USD.

Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.

Market cap
145.9 bn USD
shares as of 31 Dec 2025
P/E (TTM)
33.8
Diluted EPS TTM 0.58 · TTM to 31 Dec 2024
E/P (TTM)
2.96%
TTM to 31 Dec 2024
Dividend yield
unavailable
Beta (2y)
0.33
Volatility (1y) 39%
52-week range
11.5426.16

Price history

Loading chart…

Technical reading

RSI (14)
29.1
oversold (≤ 30)
Bollinger (20, 2)
19.87 – 28.08
below the lower band · %B -0.03 · band width 34.3%
SMA 50 / 200
22.11 / 19.26
mixed trend
MACD (12, 26, 9)
-0.45 / 0.25
MACD below signal

Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).

Performance

CompanyS&P 500vs S&P 500Vertical median
1 month−18.8%−1.1%−17.7 pp—
3 months+6.8%−0.5%+7.3 pp—
6 months−6.2%+4.4%−10.6 pp—
Year to date+65.5%+12.3%+53.2 pp—
1 year+65.8%+13.5%+52.2 pp+19.9%
3 years+25.1%+76.4%−51.3 pp+8.7%
5 years+101.7%+63.7%+38.1 pp—
Max drawdown (1y)
−27.4%
30 Apr 2026 → 01 Jul 2026
Max drawdown (5y)
−43.8%
23 May 2022 → 14 Dec 2022
Compound annual growth (5y)
+15.1%
S&P 500 +10.4%

Price returns, dividends excluded.

Quarterly results

ESEF annual reports carry no quarters: the results are annual (below).

E/P over time

E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.

Today's P/E sits at the 86 percentile of its own 7-quarter history (min 3.8, median 20.4, max 124.8; quarters with earnings only).

Fiscal years

Fiscal year20172018201920202021202220232024
Revenue77.9 bn84.6 bn76.6 bn53.7 bn84.0 bn124.5 bn102.4 bn91.4 bn
Revenue YoY−4.3%+8.7%−9.5%−29.9%+56.4%+48.2%−17.7%−10.7%
Net income-91.0 m7.2 bn10.2 bn1.1 bn19.9 bn36.6 bn24.9 bn7.5 bn
Net income YoYunavailableunavailable+41.5%−88.8%+1,641.9%+84.3%−32.1%−69.7%
Diluted EPSunavailable0.550.780.091.522.811.910.58
Diluted EPS YoYunavailableunavailable+41.8%−88.5%+1,588.9%+84.9%−32.0%−69.6%
net %-0.1%8.5%13.3%2.1%23.7%29.4%24.3%8.2%
Free cash flow13.5 bn14.3 bnunavailableunavailableunavailableunavailableunavailableunavailable

Reported results vs expectations

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Balance sheet & financial health

Fiscal year 2024 · 31 Dec 2024

Cash
3.3 bn USD
Financial debt
20.6 bn USD
Net debt
17.3 bn USD
Equity
59.4 bn USD
Total assets
181.6 bn USD
Debt / equity
0.35x
Current ratio
0.69x
ROE
10.9%
ROA
3.8%
FCF margin
unavailable

Financial statements (source on every figure)

Revenue and net income (USD)

Margins

Income statement · USD

Revenue
2022
124.5 bn
2023
102.4 bn
2024
91.4 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 03 Apr 2025verified

Cost of revenue
2022
59.5 bn
2023
48.4 bn
2024
45.4 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 03 Apr 2025verified

Gross profit
2022
65.0 bn
2023
54.0 bn
2024
46.0 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 03 Apr 2025verified

Research & development
2022
792.0 m
2023
726.0 m
2024
789.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 03 Apr 2025verified

Operating income
2022
57.1 bn
2023
38.0 bn
2024
26.9 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 03 Apr 2025verified

Interest expense
2022
3.5 bn
2023
3.9 bn
2024
6.0 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 03 Apr 2025verified

Pre-tax income
2022
53.5 bn
2023
35.4 bn
2024
11.1 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 03 Apr 2025verified

Income tax
2022
16.8 bn
2023
10.4 bn
2024
3.5 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 03 Apr 2025verified

Net income
2022
36.6 bn
2023
24.9 bn
2024
7.5 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 03 Apr 2025verified

Diluted EPS
2022
2.81
2023
1.91
2024
0.58

SEC (XBRL)· 03 Apr 2025verified

Balance sheet · USD

Cash
2022
8.0 bn
2023
12.7 bn
2024
3.3 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 03 Apr 2025verified

Receivables
2022
5.0 bn
2023
6.1 bn
2024
3.6 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 03 Apr 2025verified

Inventories
2022
8.8 bn
2023
7.7 bn
2024
6.7 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 03 Apr 2025verified

Current assets
2022
31.3 bn
2023
32.4 bn
2024
21.8 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 03 Apr 2025verified

Property, plant & equipment, net
2022
130.2 bn
2023
153.4 bn
2024
136.3 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 03 Apr 2025verified

Total assets
2022
187.2 bn
2023
217.1 bn
2024
181.6 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 03 Apr 2025verified

Accounts payable
2022
5.5 bn
2023
4.8 bn
2024
6.1 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 03 Apr 2025verified

Short-term debt
2022
3.1 bn
2023
4.0 m
2024
10.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 03 Apr 2025verified

Long-term debt
2022
26.4 bn
2023
24.5 bn
2024
20.6 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 03 Apr 2025verified

Current liabilities
2022
31.4 bn
2023
33.9 bn
2024
31.5 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 03 Apr 2025verified

Total liabilities
2022
117.4 bn
2023
138.1 bn
2024
122.3 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 03 Apr 2025verified

Equity
2022
69.8 bn
2023
79.0 bn
2024
59.4 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 03 Apr 2025verified

Shares outstanding at year end
2022
7.4 bn
2023
7.4 bn
2024
7.4 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 03 Apr 2025verified

Cash flow · USD

Operating cash flow
2022
49.7 bn
2023
43.2 bn
2024
38.0 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 03 Apr 2025verified

Investing cash flow
2022
-432.0 m
2023
-8.0 bn
2024
-13.4 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 03 Apr 2025verified

Financing cash flow
2022
-51.5 bn
2023
-30.7 bn
2024
-33.1 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 03 Apr 2025verified

Computed indicators

Growth

Revenue growth (YoY)
-10.7%
computed by olivLawFY 2024
Revenue CAGR 3Y
2.9%
computed by olivLawFY 2021 → FY 2024
Revenue CAGR 5Y
3.6%
computed by olivLawFY 2019 → FY 2024
EBIT growth (YoY)
-29.3%
computed by olivLawFY 2024
Net income growth (YoY)
-69.7%
computed by olivLawFY 2024
Net income CAGR 3Y
-27.6%
computed by olivLawFY 2021 → FY 2024
Net income CAGR 5Y
-5.8%
computed by olivLawFY 2019 → FY 2024
EPS growth (YoY)
-69.6%
computed by olivLawFY 2024
EPS CAGR 3Y
-27.5%
computed by olivLawFY 2021 → FY 2024
EPS CAGR 5Y
-5.8%
computed by olivLawFY 2019 → FY 2024
FCF growth (YoY)
unavailable
input data missing

Profitability

Gross margin
50.3%
computed by olivLawFY 2024
EBITDA margin
unavailable
input data missing
EBIT margin
29.4%
computed by olivLawFY 2024
Net margin
8.2%
computed by olivLawFY 2024
FCF margin
unavailable
input data missing

Returns

ROE
10.9%
computed by olivLawFY 2024 · balance sheet at 31 Dec 2024
ROA
3.8%
computed by olivLawFY 2024 · balance sheet at 31 Dec 2024
ROIC
21.9%
computed by olivLawFY 2024 · balance sheet at 31 Dec 2024
ROCE
17.9%
computed by olivLawFY 2024 · balance sheet at 31 Dec 2024
Payout ratio (EPS)
unavailable
input data missing
Payout ratio (FCF)
unavailable
input data missing

Balance sheet

Net debt
17.3 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 31 Dec 2024
Net debt / EBITDA
unavailable
input data missing
Debt / equity
0.3x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 31 Dec 2024
Interest coverage
4.5x
computed by olivLawFY 2024

Liquidity

Current ratio
0.7x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 31 Dec 2024
Quick ratio
0.5x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 31 Dec 2024
Cash ratio
0.1x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 31 Dec 2024

Cash

Operating cash flow
38.0 bn USD
computed by olivLawFY 2024
Capital expenditure
unavailable
input data missing
Free cash flow
unavailable
input data missing
FCF conversion
unavailable
input data missing
Cash conversion
unavailable
input data missing

Efficiency

Days sales outstanding
19 days
computed by olivLawFY 2024 · balance sheet at 31 Dec 2024
Days inventory outstanding
58 days
computed by olivLawFY 2024 · balance sheet at 31 Dec 2024
Days payables outstanding
44 days
computed by olivLawFY 2024 · balance sheet at 31 Dec 2024
Cash conversion cycle
33 days
computed by olivLawFY 2024 · balance sheet at 31 Dec 2024

Market and valuation

Market capitalisation
145.9 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 31 Dec 2024
Enterprise value
163.3 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 31 Dec 2024
Market cap / net income TTM
19.4x
computed by olivLawFY 2024
P/E (TTM)
33.8x
computed by olivLawFY 2024
Earnings yield
3.0%
computed by olivLawFY 2024
P/B
2.5x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 31 Dec 2024
P/S
1.6x
computed by olivLawFY 2024 · balance sheet at 31 Dec 2024
EV/EBITDA
unavailable
input data missing
EV/EBIT
6.1x
computed by olivLawFY 2024 · balance sheet at 31 Dec 2024
EV/Sales
1.8x
computed by olivLawFY 2024 · balance sheet at 31 Dec 2024
P/FCF
unavailable
input data missing
FCF yield
unavailable
input data missing
Dividend yield
unavailable
no dividend in the structured statements; a missing line is not a confirmed zero
Shareholder yield (distributions)
unavailable
input data missing

Risk

Altman Z
unavailable
input data missing

Valuation

olivLaw classification

Insufficient data
What is missing
  • score weight coverage: 54.2% of at least 60%

A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.

Closing price

19.61 USD

04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series

Market cap: 145.9 bn USD

Key indicators

Market capitalisation
145.9 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 31 Dec 2024
P/E (TTM)
33.8x
computed by olivLawFY 2024
P/B
2.5x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 31 Dec 2024
EV/EBITDA
unavailable
input data missing
ROE
10.9%
computed by olivLawFY 2024 · balance sheet at 31 Dec 2024
Net margin
8.2%
computed by olivLawFY 2024
Revenue growth (YoY)
-10.7%
computed by olivLawFY 2024
Dividend yield
unavailable
no dividend in the structured statements; a missing line is not a confirmed zero

Coverage and freshness

26/37 reporting lines present
Latest full fiscal year: 2024
Latest reported period: 31 Dec 2024
Latest balance sheet date: 31 Dec 2024
Share count (cover of the latest filing), as of: 31 Dec 2025
Source: SEC (XBRL)published 09 Apr 2026
verified 373

The data is older than the freshness threshold.

Score by group

54% · Insufficient data

Estimated value range

Low
4.85
USD per share
Mid
5.91
USD per share
High
8.74
USD per share
Price: 19.61 USD
The price is above the range
Potential to the central value: -69.8% (value / price − 1)
Margin of safety: -231.6% (1 − price / value)
Agreement between methods: single method · 1 methods used · 1 independent bases

The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 4.85 – 8.74 USD.

Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.

Method ranges (USD per share)

— — Mid · ▏ Price

Valuation methods

  • DCF (discounted cash flow)unavailable · the input exists, but its latest figure is far older than the latest reported period: not used
  • Peers: EV/EBITDAunavailable · input data missing
  • Peers: P/E4.85 – 8.74 (Mid 5.91)
    20 companies used · median multiple 10.2x · quartiles 8.4x – 15.1x
    APA, CKX, DEC, DMLP, DVN, EOG, EQT, EXE, FANG, GPRK, KRP, MNR, MTDR, OVV, OXY, PARR, PR, REPX, SD, TTE
  • Dividend discount (DDM)unavailable · the company pays no dividend: a dividend model needs an explicit initiation assumption
Multiple comparisons use the SIC vertical: Crude Petroleum & Natural Gas (SIC 1311)

Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.

Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)

Risk-free rate
4.3%
Equity risk premium
5.0%
Beta (default)
1.00
Cost of equity
9.3%
Terminal growth
2.5%

Factor scorecard

Insufficient data

Minimum-evidence gate: score weight coverage: 54.2% of at least 60%

FactorValueScoreWeight used
ROIC · Quality21.9%83 (vs peers)19%
Net margin · Quality8.2%50 (vs peers)12%
FCF conversion · Qualityunavailableunavailable—
Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth2.9%24 (on a fixed band)15%
EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth-27.5%0 (on a fixed band)15%
Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheetunavailableunavailable—
Interest coverage · Balance sheet4.5x46 (on a fixed band)12%
Current ratio · Balance sheet0.7x0 (on a fixed band)8%
P/E (TTM) · Valuation33.8x0 (vs peers)19%
EV/EBITDA · Valuationunavailableunavailable—
FCF yield · Valuationunavailableunavailable—
Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returnsunavailableunavailable—
Payout ratio (FCF) · Returnsunavailableunavailable—

Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.

Score groups

  • Balance sheet28/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
  • Growth12/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
  • Quality70/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
  • Returns· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
  • Valuation· partial0/100 · 1/3 factors with a value

A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.

Memo

PETROBRAS - PETROLEO BRASILEIRO SA (PBR). Latest full fiscal year: 2024; data up to 2024-12-31.

Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 91.4 bn USD in 2024; YoY growth -10.7%; net margin 8.2%; ROE 10.9%.

The estimated value range is 4.85–8.74 USD per share (median of 1 methods, agreement: single method); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 5.91 USD, the price of 19.61 USD leaves a potential of -69.8% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of -231.6% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.

Insufficient data for a verdict (score weight coverage: 54.2% of at least 60%).

Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.

What supports the thesis

  • ROIC: 21.9%

What contradicts it

  • Revenue CAGR 3Y: 2.9%
  • EPS CAGR 3Y: -27.5%
  • Current ratio: 0.7x
  • P/E (TTM): 33.8x
  • The price is above the estimated value range

Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): FCF conversion, Net debt / EBITDA, EV/EBITDA, FCF yield, Shareholder yield (distributions), Payout ratio (FCF).

Versus the vertical median

Crude Petroleum & Natural Gas (SIC 1311) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 39 companies

Multiples and returns vs the median

P/E
33.8x
vertical median 10.5x
above median (+223.0%)
EV/EBITDA
—
vertical median 5.2x
P/S
1.6x
vertical median 1.6x
at median
P/B
2.5x
vertical median 1.4x
above median (+79.9%)
ROE
10.9%
vertical median 8.3%
above median (+31.9%)
Net margin
8.2%
vertical median 8.6%
at median
EBIT margin
29.4%
vertical median 14.5%
above median (+102.2%)
Revenue YoY
-10.7%
vertical median -3.4%
below median
Net debt/EBITDA
—
vertical median 0.9x
Dividend yield
—
vertical median 2.7%

Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)

Companies in the vertical

Market capP/EROENet marginRevenue YoY1A / 3A
TTETotalEnergies SE199.6 bn15.711.3%6.5%−6.2%+38% / +33%
PBRPetrobras - Petroleo Brasileiro SA145.9 bn33.810.9%8.2%−10.7%+66% / +25%
EOGEog Resources, Inc.77.1 bn11.422.5%25.4%−4.5%+36% / +19%
OXYOccidental Petroleum Corporation57.3 bn8.618.9%33.7%−1.9%+37% / −3%
FANGDiamondback Energy, Inc.51.1 bn25.05.3%11.0%+35.8%+20% / +18%
DVNDevon Energy Corp48.5 bn10.511.5%16.7%+7.8%+19% / −2%
EQTEqt Corporation32.9 bn12.510.9%28.4%+63.9%−14% / +31%
EXEExpand Energy Corporation20.2 bn7.614.6%19.8%+186.3%−28% / +9%
PRPermian Resources Corporation18.8 bn14.911.5%21.5%+1.3%+55% / +71%
OVVOvintiv Inc.16.8 bn12.712.1%12.8%−2.7%+53% / +41%
APAApa Corporation15.6 bn9.425.9%—unavailable+78% / +24%
MTDRMatador Resources Company6.2 bn8.612.8%19.9%+5.5%+19% / −13%
CRCCalifornia Resources Corp4.3 bn—-15.5%-18.1%+14.7%+1% / −6%
PARRPar Pacific Holdings, Inc.3.5 bn3.650.9%9.8%−6.4%+53% / +103%
TALOTalos Energy Inc.2.6 bn—-18.1%-18.4%−9.8%+36% / +12%
NOGNorthern Oil And Gas, Inc.2.4 bn—-22.1%-25.4%+11.2%−1% / −40%
MNRMach Natural Resources LP1.7 bn19.1—7.4%+21.2%−15% / −43%
DMLPDorchester Minerals, L.P.1.4 bn15.6—45.5%−5.4%+27% / −5%
REPXRiley Exploration Permian, Inc.948.6 m9.216.8%17.3%−4.4%+57% / +74%
DECDiversified Energy Company942.7 m16.711.0%4.9%+141.5%−11% / +1,434%
EGYVaalco Energy Inc568.0 m—-24.4%-31.1%−25.0%+51% / +16%
GPRKGeoPark LTD487.6 m9.922.1%10.1%−25.5%+16% / +4%
SDSandridge Energy, Inc.468.3 m5.716.2%46.1%+24.8%−11% / −9%
KRPKimbell Royalty Partners, LP415.5 m4.1—29.7%+7.9%+24% / +1%
GTEGran Tierra Energy Inc.355.6 m—-97.9%-40.0%−4.0%+122% / +59%

1- and 3-year price returns: for PBR from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.

olivLaw engine forecast

The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.

The engine has no published run for this company yet.

Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)

Illustrative scenarios

Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.

Bear
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Base
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Bull
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Nothing is saved.

Estimated price (USD)

Estimated priceBearBaseBull
1 years
19.88
Total return 1% · Per year 1%
35.18
Total return 79% · Per year 79%
53.03
Total return 170% · Per year 170%
3 years
18.67
Total return -5% · Per year -2%
37.23
Total return 90% · Per year 24%
61.71
Total return 215% · Per year 47%
5 years
17.54
Total return -11% · Per year -2%
39.41
Total return 101% · Per year 15%
71.82
Total return 266% · Per year 30%
What moves the 3-year price the most
  • Exit P/E± 9.31
  • Net margin± 6.52
  • Annual revenue growth± 5.43
  • Annual dilution± 0.55

AI analysis

AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 09 Apr 2026; since then the company filed 6-K (04 Nov 2026), 6-K (30 Oct 2026), 6-K (29 Oct 2026), 6-K (14 Oct 2026).

In brief

Petrobras is the oil and natural gas company controlled by the Brazilian state, active in exploration, production, refining, transport and marketing of hydrocarbons. Its 2025 annual report describes a company reorganising its portfolio and strategy around the Business Plan 2026-30.

SWOT

Strengths

  • Petrobras has an integrated portfolio spanning exploration, production, refining and distribution, reflected in its segment structure 1.
  • The company holds interests in gas pipeline transport infrastructure, giving it a logistics advantage in its region 1.
  • The annual report presents a detailed governance and internal control framework with formalised compliance procedures 1.

Weaknesses

  • The company remains exposed to volatility in oil and gas prices, external factors it does not control 1.
  • The report mentions past corruption investigations that continue to generate uncertainty and costs 1.
  • The Brazilian state, as controlling shareholder, plays a major role in decisions, which may limit strategic autonomy 1.

Opportunities

  • Developing the Gas & Low Carbon Energies segment could open new revenue sources from renewables and biofuels 1.
  • Implementing the Business Plan 2026-30 could optimise the asset portfolio through acquisitions, partnerships and sales 1.
  • Carbon capture, utilisation and storage is a direction noted in the report that could reduce the carbon footprint of operations 1.

Threats

  • Regional and global conflicts, including those in Eastern Europe and the Middle East, can disrupt energy markets and supply chains 1.
  • Cyber threats and operational incidents can affect the continuity of production and refining activities 1.
  • Regulatory changes or legal proceedings brought by authorities could impose additional costs on the company 1.

Risks

  • Price volatilityhigh

    Oil and gas prices and refining margins can vary significantly and affect financial results 1.

  • Regulatory frameworkhigh

    Changes in law or non-compliance with regulations, including those on corruption, could lead to sanctions and costs 1.

  • Geopolitical risksmedium

    Regional and global conflicts could disrupt supply and the markets in which the company operates 1.

  • Cybersecuritymedium

    Cyberattacks could affect operations and data, according to the risk framework described in the report 1.

  • Operational risksmedium

    Accidents, environmental incidents and technical difficulties could interrupt production and generate remediation costs 1.

Investment thesis

What would need to be true (bull case)

  • If the Business Plan 2026-30 is implemented successfully, the integrated portfolio and diversification toward lower-carbon energy could support long-term performance.
  • If oil prices remain favourable, exploration and production activity could generate significant cash flows.
  • Its position in gas pipeline infrastructure could strengthen the company's role in the regional market.

What would break the thesis

  • If energy prices fall, refining and production margins could be compressed, affecting results.
  • Proceedings linked to corruption investigations could generate additional costs and unexpected penalties.
  • The influence of the Brazilian state over decisions could limit strategic flexibility when markets change.

What to watch

  • Implementation of the Business Plan 2026-30 and planned investments2027
  • Trends in refining margins and oil pricesQ1 2027
  • Outcomes of corruption-related investigations and any sanctionsnext 10-K
  • Progress of the Gas & Low Carbon Energies segment in renewables2027

Products, market & competition

AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 09 Apr 2026; since then the company filed 6-K (04 Nov 2026), 6-K (30 Oct 2026), 6-K (29 Oct 2026), 6-K (14 Oct 2026).

The business

Petrobras operates through the Exploration & Production, Refining, Transportation & Marketing, and Gas & Low Carbon Energies segments, according to its 2025 annual report 1. The E&P segment covers exploration, development and production of oil, NGL and natural gas in Brazil and abroad 1. The company also holds petrochemical operations, fertilizer production and interests in gas pipeline companies such as TBG and TSB 1.

Segments

Exploration & Production

The E&P segment covers exploration, development and production of oil, NGL and natural gas in Brazil and abroad 1. The annual report presents this activity as central to the company's portfolio 1.

Refining, Transportation & Marketing

This segment covers refining, logistics, transport, acquisition and exports of crude oil, as well as trading of oil products 1. It also includes petrochemical operations and fertilizer production and trading 1.

Market context

The 2025 annual report frames the market through crude oil and commodity prices, refining margins and exchange rates, listed among general business conditions 1. The company notes these variables can directly influence its financial results 1.

Trends

  • Business Plan 2026-30mixed

    The company is adapting its strategy through the Business Plan 2026-30, which could reshape investment priorities if implemented successfully 1.

  • Energy transitiontailwind

    The Gas & Low Carbon Energies segment extends activities into renewable energy, carbon capture and storage and biofuels 1. If these directions develop, they could diversify the company's revenues 1.

  • Energy price volatilityheadwind

    Oil and gas prices and refining margins remain external factors with major impact on results 1. Conflicts in Eastern Europe and the Middle East are cited as sources of uncertainty 1.

  • Regulation and investigationsheadwind

    Corruption-related investigations and regulatory changes could affect operations and reputation 1. The report also mentions legal risks tied to proceedings by regulatory authorities 1.

Competitive position

The 2025 annual report lists competition as a risk factor without detailing a market ranking 1. Companies active in oil exploration and refining in Brazil and abroad are the main competitors in the same activities 1.

  • TotalEnergiesTTE

    Operates in Brazil through Total E&P do Brasil, active in the same exploration and production field 1.

  • ShellSHEL

    Present in Brazil through Shell Brasil Petróleo, active in hydrocarbon exploration and production 1.

  • CNOOC

    Chinese state-owned company active in Brazil through CNOOC Petroleum Brasil in the oil sector 1.

  • CNPC

    Chinese state-owned company present in Brazil through CNODC Brasil Petróleo e Gás in the petroleum sector 1.

News & filings

In the press

The latest news item in our archive is from 28 Oct 2026; the newest SEC filing is from 04 Nov 2026. The press archive comes from the RSS feeds we follow and does not necessarily cover the latest event — the filings alongside do.

Sources

  1. [1] Form 20-F, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · SEC / Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. – Petrobras · 09 Apr 2026

Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.