olivLaw · US equity research
Par Pacific Holdings, Inc. PARR
Crude Petroleum & Natural Gas · SIC 1311 · Vertical: Crude Petroleum & Natural Gas (SIC 1311)
Par Pacific Holdings is a Houston-based energy company that produces and distributes conventional and renewable fuels in the western United States through refineries in Hawaii, Washington, Montana and Wyoming, plus retail and logistics operations. In the second quarter of 2026 the company reported net income attributable to stockholders of 462.1 million USD, helped by stronger refining margins, although part of the results depends on how oil prices evolve.
The AI analysis may be outdated: new filings came after its sources (see the «AI analysis» section).
At the close of 04 Nov 2026, Par Pacific Holdings, Inc. (PARR) stock was 69.66 USD (−2.27% on the day), with market capitalisation 3.5 bn USD, P/E 3.6 on diluted EPS of 19.09 USD over the last 12 months, beta 0.44, 52-week range 34.83–89.88 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q3 2026): revenue of 3.1 bn USD (+51.6% YoY), net income of 353.3 m USD (+34.5% YoY), diluted EPS 7.11 USD.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
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Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 36.4
- weak (30–45)
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 68.16 – 92.11
- in the lower half of the band · %B 0.06 · band width 29.9%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 81.06 / 64.70
- mixed trend
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- -2.94 / -1.54
- MACD below signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | S&P 500 | vs S&P 500 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | −20.4% | −1.1% | −19.3 pp | — |
| 3 months | −0.4% | −0.5% | +0.1 pp | — |
| 6 months | +11.8% | +4.4% | +7.4 pp | — |
| Year to date | +98.2% | +12.3% | +85.9 pp | — |
| 1 year | +71.9% | +13.5% | +58.3 pp | +19.9% |
| 3 years | +114.4% | +76.4% | +38.0 pp | +8.7% |
| 5 years | +333.2% | +63.7% | +269.5 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
Latest quarter: Q3 2026 · 30 Sept 2026
Quarterly margins
Quarterly statements · USD
| Fiscal year | Q4 '24 | Q1 '25 | Q2 '25 | Q3 '25 | Q4 '25 | Q1 '26 | Q2 '26 | Q3 '26 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 1.8 bn | 1.7 bn | 1.9 bn | 2.0 bn | 1.8 bn | 1.8 bn | 3.0 bn | 3.1 bn |
| Cost of revenue | 1.7 bn | 1.6 bn | 1.6 bn | 1.5 bn | 1.5 bn | 1.6 bn | 2.1 bn | 2.3 bn |
| Operating income | -47.0 m | -15.8 m | 96.8 m | 358.5 m | 99.3 m | 65.3 m | 634.6 m | 472.1 m |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 34.9 m | 36.6 m | 34.7 m | 36.3 m | 36.7 m | 34.5 m | 36.5 m | 39.0 m |
| Interest expense | 21.1 m | 21.8 m | 22.1 m | 21.3 m | 17.2 m | 15.9 m | 14.3 m | 7.0 m |
| Pre-tax income | -71.9 m | -37.3 m | 76.3 m | 345.3 m | 93.5 m | 58.5 m | 607.0 m | 464.9 m |
| Income tax | -16.2 m | -6.9 m | 16.9 m | 82.7 m | 18.1 m | 12.3 m | 144.0 m | 110.0 m |
| Net income | -55.7 m | -30.4 m | 59.5 m | 262.6 m | 77.7 m | 54.5 m | 462.1 m | 353.3 m |
| Diluted EPS | -1.05 ≈ | -0.57 | 1.17 | 5.16 | 1.53 ≈ | 1.10 | 9.35 | 7.11 |
| Operating cash flow | -15.5 m | -1.4 m | 133.6 m ≈ | 219.4 m ≈ | 93.8 m | -40.7 m | 282.6 m ≈ | 838.9 m ≈ |
| Capex | 47.7 m | 40.9 m | 48.1 m ≈ | 32.3 m ≈ | 27.5 m | 43.1 m | 39.7 m ≈ | 37.4 m ≈ |
| Share repurchases | 15.3 m | 51.1 m | 29.7 m ≈ | 16.4 m ≈ | 27.6 m | 36.7 m | 359.0 k ≈ | 10.3 m ≈ |
≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Today's P/E sits at the 27 percentile of its own 26-quarter history (min 2.4, median 7.3, max 65.3; quarters with earnings only).
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | ⚠ 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 3.4 bn | 5.4 bn | 3.1 bn | 4.7 bn | 7.3 bn | 8.2 bn | 8.0 bn | 7.5 bn |
| Revenue YoY | — | +58.4% | −42.1% | +50.7% | +55.4% | +12.4% | −3.1% | −6.4% |
| Net income | 39.4 m | 40.8 m | -409.1 m | -81.3 m | 364.2 m | 728.6 m | -33.3 m | 369.4 m |
| Net income YoY | — | +3.5% | −1,102.4% | unavailable | unavailable | +100.1% | −104.6% | unavailable |
| Diluted EPS | 0.85 | 0.80 | -7.68 | -1.40 | 6.08 | 11.94 | -0.59 | 7.16 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | — | −5.9% | −1,060.0% | unavailable | unavailable | +96.4% | −104.9% | unavailable |
| net % | 1.2% | 0.8% | -13.1% | -1.7% | 5.0% | 8.9% | -0.4% | 4.9% |
| Free cash flow | 42.2 m | 21.7 m | -100.7 m | -57.2 m | 399.6 m | 496.9 m | -51.8 m | 296.5 m |
The series breaks before 2018: earlier years come from the original reports of the issuer of that time, later years from a subsequent filing that restated the perimeter (a separation, discontinued operations). The year-on-year change across the break is not shown.
Reported results vs expectations
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Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025
- Cash
- 164.1 m USD
- Financial debt
- 802.9 m USD
- Net debt
- 638.8 m USD
- Equity
- 1.5 bn USD
- Total assets
- 3.8 bn USD
- Debt / equity
- 0.53x
- Current ratio
- 1.61x
- ROE
- 27.3%
- ROA
- 9.6%
- FCF margin
- 4.0%
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (USD)
Margins
Income statement · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 3.1 bn | 4.7 bn | 7.3 bn | 8.2 bn | 8.0 bn | 7.5 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Cost of revenue | 2.9 bn | 4.3 bn | 6.4 bn | 6.8 bn | 7.1 bn | 6.1 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Gross profit | 177.2 m ≈ | 371.6 m ≈ | 945.8 m ≈ | 1.4 bn ≈ | 873.3 m ≈ | 1.4 bn ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026derived |
| Operating income | -318.0 m | -7.6 m | 437.9 m | 680.0 m | 47.6 m | 538.8 m | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 90.0 m | 94.2 m | 99.8 m | 119.8 m | 131.6 m | 144.3 m | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| EBITDA | -228.0 m ≈ | 86.6 m ≈ | 537.7 m ≈ | 799.8 m ≈ | 179.2 m ≈ | 683.1 m ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026derived |
| Interest expense | 70.2 m | 66.5 m | 68.3 m | 72.5 m | 82.8 m | 82.4 m | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Pre-tax income | -429.8 m | -80.3 m | 364.9 m | 613.3 m | -39.0 m | 477.9 m | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Income tax | -20.7 m | 1.0 m | 710.0 k | -115.3 m | -5.7 m | 110.8 m | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Net income | -409.1 m | -81.3 m | 364.2 m | 728.6 m | -33.3 m | 369.4 m | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | -7.68 | -1.40 | 6.08 | 11.94 | -0.59 | 7.16 | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Weighted average diluted shares | 53.3 m | 58.3 m | 59.9 m | 61.0 m | 56.8 m | 51.6 m | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Revenue − Cost of revenue; Operating income + Depreciation & amortisation.
Balance sheet · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 68.3 m | 112.2 m | 490.9 m | 279.1 m | 191.9 m | 164.1 m | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Receivables | 111.7 m | 195.1 m | 252.9 m | 367.2 m | 398.1 m | 312.7 m | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Inventories | 429.9 m | 790.3 m | 1.0 bn | 1.2 bn | 1.1 bn | 1.2 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Current assets | 636.5 m | 1.1 bn | 1.9 bn | 2.0 bn | 1.8 bn | 1.8 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Goodwill | 128.0 m | 127.3 m | 129.3 m | 129.3 m | 129.3 m | 127.3 m | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Intangibles (excl. goodwill) | 18.9 m | 16.2 m | 13.6 m | 10.9 m | 9.5 m | 9.5 m | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Total assets | 2.1 bn | 2.6 bn | 3.3 bn | 3.9 bn | 3.8 bn | 3.8 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Accounts payable | 106.9 m | 154.5 m | 151.4 m | 391.3 m | 436.8 m | 341.6 m | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Short-term debt | 59.9 m | 10.8 m | 11.0 m | 4.3 m | 4.9 m | 4.9 m | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Long-term debt | 648.7 m | 553.7 m | 494.6 m | 646.6 m | 1.1 bn | 797.9 m | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Current liabilities | 878.7 m | 1.4 bn | 1.8 bn | 1.5 bn | 1.1 bn | 1.1 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Total liabilities | 1.9 bn | 2.3 bn | 2.6 bn | 2.5 bn | 2.6 bn | 2.3 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Equity | 246.3 m † | 265.7 m † | 644.5 m | 1.3 bn | 1.2 bn | 1.5 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
† equity attributable to the parent's shareholders: in these years the issuer no longer reports the total including non-controlling interests.
Cash flow · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | -37.2 m | -27.6 m | 452.6 m | 579.2 m | 83.8 m | 445.3 m | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Capex | 63.5 m | 29.5 m | 53.0 m | 82.3 m | 135.5 m | 148.9 m | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Free cash flow | -100.7 m ≈ | -57.2 m ≈ | 399.6 m ≈ | 496.9 m ≈ | -51.8 m ≈ | 296.5 m ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026derived |
| Investing cash flow | -63.5 m | 74.6 m | -87.3 m | -659.0 m | -134.0 m | -142.8 m | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Financing cash flow | 42.6 m | -1.1 m | 13.4 m | -135.6 m | -37.0 m | -330.4 m | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Share repurchases | 1.2 m | 2.1 m | 7.8 m | 67.8 m | 142.0 m | 124.8 m | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating cash flow − Capex.
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
Risk
Valuation
olivLaw classification
Score: 77 / 100
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
score >= 65 · margin_of_safety >= 0.15 · agreement in ['high', 'medium']
Closing price
04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 3.5 bn USD
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
- Valuation100
- Returns31
- Quality87
- Balance sheet91
- Growth21
Estimated value range
The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 112.81 – 441.08 USD.
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Method ranges (USD per share)
— — Mid · ▏ Price
Valuation methods
- DCF (discounted cash flow)280.86 – 441.08 (Mid 341.77)WACC 8.7% · starting FCFF 1.1 bn USD · terminal value share of EV 74%The WACC × g sensitivity gives the method's bounds; these are not probabilities.Reverse DCF: no growth between −30% and +40% justifies the price
- Peers: EV/EBITDA112.81 – 167.98 (Mid 150.84)11 companies used · median multiple 5.2x · quartiles 3.8x – 5.8xAPA, DEC, EOG, EQT, EXE, FANG, MNR, MTDR, OVV, REPX, TALO
- Peers: P/E164.84 – 291.32 (Mid 199.85)19 companies used · median multiple 10.5x · quartiles 8.6x – 15.3xAPA, CKX, DEC, DMLP, DVN, EOG, EQT, EXE, FANG, GPRK, KRP, MNR, MTDR, OVV, OXY, PR, REPX, SD, TTE
- Dividend discount (DDM)unavailable · the company pays no dividend: a dividend model needs an explicit initiation assumption
Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 4.3%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 9.3%
- Terminal growth
- 2.5%
Factor scorecard
Attractive profile · Score 77/100
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | 45.4% | 100 (vs peers) | 11% |
| Net margin · Quality | 9.8% | 53 (vs peers) | 7% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | 108.4% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 7% |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | 0.6% | 5 (on a fixed band) | 9% |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | 5.6% | 37 (on a fixed band) | 9% |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | -0.2x | 93 (vs peers) | 11% |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | 23.4x | 100 (on a fixed band) | 7% |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 1.7x | 71 (on a fixed band) | 4% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | 3.6x | 100 (vs peers) | 11% |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | 2.3x | 100 (vs peers) | 11% |
| FCF yield · Valuation | 29.4% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 9% |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | 2.1% | 31 (on a fixed band) | 7% |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet91/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
- Growth21/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
- Quality87/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
- Returns· partial31/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
- Valuation100/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
Par Pacific Holdings, Inc. (PARR). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2026-09-30.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 7.5 bn USD in 2025; YoY growth -6.4%; net margin 9.8%; ROE 50.9%; net debt/EBITDA -0.2x.
The estimated value range is 164.84–291.32 USD per share (median of 3 methods, agreement: medium); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 199.85 USD, the price of 69.66 USD leaves a potential of 186.9% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of 65.1% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
olivLaw score 77/100, methodological classification: attractive profile (score, margin of safety and method agreement together; not a judgement of the right price). Groups assessed only in part: returns. Not investment advice.
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- ROIC: 45.4%
- FCF conversion: 108.4%
- Net debt / EBITDA: -0.2x
- Interest coverage: 23.4x
- Current ratio: 1.7x
- P/E (TTM): 3.6x
- EV/EBITDA: 2.3x
- FCF yield: 29.4%
- The price is below the estimated value range
What contradicts it
- Revenue CAGR 3Y: 0.6%
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): Payout ratio (FCF).
Versus the vertical median
Crude Petroleum & Natural Gas (SIC 1311) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 39 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TTETotalEnergies SE | 199.6 bn | 15.7 | 11.3% | 6.5% | −6.2% | +38% / +33% |
| PBRPetrobras - Petroleo Brasileiro SA | 145.9 bn | 33.8 | 10.9% | 8.2% | −10.7% | +56% / +28% |
| EOGEog Resources, Inc. | 77.1 bn | 11.4 | 22.5% | 25.4% | −4.5% | +36% / +19% |
| OXYOccidental Petroleum Corporation | 57.3 bn | 8.6 | 18.9% | 33.7% | −1.9% | +37% / −3% |
| FANGDiamondback Energy, Inc. | 51.1 bn | 25.0 | 5.3% | 11.0% | +35.8% | +20% / +18% |
| DVNDevon Energy Corp | 48.5 bn | 10.5 | 11.5% | 16.7% | +7.8% | +19% / −2% |
| EQTEqt Corporation | 32.9 bn | 12.5 | 10.9% | 28.4% | +63.9% | −14% / +31% |
| EXEExpand Energy Corporation | 20.2 bn | 7.6 | 14.6% | 19.8% | +186.3% | −28% / +9% |
| PRPermian Resources Corporation | 18.8 bn | 14.9 | 11.5% | 21.5% | +1.3% | +55% / +71% |
| OVVOvintiv Inc. | 16.8 bn | 12.7 | 12.1% | 12.8% | −2.7% | +53% / +41% |
| APAApa Corporation | 15.6 bn | 9.4 | 25.9% | — | unavailable | +78% / +24% |
| MTDRMatador Resources Company | 6.2 bn | 8.6 | 12.8% | 19.9% | +5.5% | +19% / −13% |
| CRCCalifornia Resources Corp | 4.3 bn | — | -15.5% | -18.1% | +14.7% | +1% / −6% |
| PARRPar Pacific Holdings, Inc. | 3.5 bn | 3.6 | 50.9% | 9.8% | −6.4% | +72% / +114% |
| TALOTalos Energy Inc. | 2.6 bn | — | -18.1% | -18.4% | −9.8% | +36% / +12% |
| NOGNorthern Oil And Gas, Inc. | 2.4 bn | — | -22.1% | -25.4% | +11.2% | −1% / −40% |
| MNRMach Natural Resources LP | 1.7 bn | 19.1 | — | 7.4% | +21.2% | −15% / −43% |
| DMLPDorchester Minerals, L.P. | 1.4 bn | 15.6 | — | 45.5% | −5.4% | +27% / −5% |
| REPXRiley Exploration Permian, Inc. | 948.6 m | 9.2 | 16.8% | 17.3% | −4.4% | +57% / +74% |
| DECDiversified Energy Company | 942.7 m | 16.7 | 11.0% | 4.9% | +141.5% | −11% / +1,434% |
| EGYVaalco Energy Inc | 568.0 m | — | -24.4% | -31.1% | −25.0% | +51% / +16% |
| GPRKGeoPark LTD | 487.6 m | 9.9 | 22.1% | 10.1% | −25.5% | +16% / +4% |
| SDSandridge Energy, Inc. | 468.3 m | 5.7 | 16.2% | 46.1% | +24.8% | −11% / −9% |
| KRPKimbell Royalty Partners, LP | 415.5 m | 4.1 | — | 29.7% | +7.9% | +24% / +1% |
| GTEGran Tierra Energy Inc. | 355.6 m | — | -97.9% | -40.0% | −4.0% | +122% / +59% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for PARR from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (USD)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | 39.23 Total return -44% · Per year -44% | 69.49 Total return -0% · Per year -0% | 104.85 Total return 51% · Per year 51% |
| 3 years | 35.18 Total return -49% · Per year -20% | 70.39 Total return 1% · Per year 0% | 117.03 Total return 68% · Per year 19% |
| 5 years | 31.55 Total return -55% · Per year -15% | 71.30 Total return 2% · Per year 0% | 130.62 Total return 88% · Per year 13% |
- Exit P/E± 17.60
- Net margin± 12.32
- Annual revenue growth± 10.50
- Annual dilution± 1.04
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 05 Aug 2026; since then the company filed 8-K (04 Nov 2026 · results), 10-Q (04 Nov 2026).
In brief
Par Pacific Holdings is a Houston-based energy company that produces and distributes conventional and renewable fuels in the western United States through refineries in Hawaii, Washington, Montana and Wyoming, plus retail and logistics operations. In the second quarter of 2026 the company reported net income attributable to stockholders of 462.1 million USD, helped by stronger refining margins, although part of the results depends on how oil prices evolve.3
SWOT
Strengths
- The company holds a distinctive position in Hawaii, where its refinery is adapted to local market needs and few alternatives are as close.
- The integrated network of refining, retail and logistics helps control supply and capture margins in a favourable environment.
- Recent results show strong growth in profitability and a liquidity position that management describes as robust.
Weaknesses
- The business depends heavily on refining margins, which are volatile and can fall quickly.
- Operating in niche markets and remote locations involves higher logistics costs and limited advantages relative to benchmark indices.
- Past operational incidents, such as the idling of the Wyoming refinery, can affect comparability between periods.
Opportunities
- Completing maintenance work in Hawaii could allow full processing capacity and volumes to return.
- The Hawaii renewable fuels facility could open new revenue sources if it reaches its planned capacity.
- Debt reduction and favourable financing terms could provide flexibility for future investment.
Threats
- Geopolitical tensions and shipping disruptions can raise feedstock costs and disrupt supply.
- Tariff policies and trade uncertainty could raise costs and reduce demand for the company's products.
- Environmental regulation and renewable fuel programs may create compliance costs and credit-price risks.
Risks
- Crude oil price volatilityhigh
Refining margins depend on the spread between crude oil prices and product prices, and that spread can shift quickly for reasons that are hard to control.
- Operational incidentshigh
Fires, explosions or equipment failures can interrupt production and cause large losses, even where insurance exists.
- Tariffs and trade policymedium
New tariffs can raise purchasing costs and may be difficult to pass on to customers, affecting results if trade tensions intensify.
- Environmental and spill risksmedium
Refining, pipeline and underground tank operations can cause leaks, with remediation costs and fines that could be significant.
- Reliance on renewable fuel programslow
Exemptions and credits under the federal renewable fuel programme may vary, which could affect costs and segment results.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- If refining margins stay favourable and the Hawaii maintenance work is complete, operating results could keep improving.
- The distinctive Hawaii position and integrated network may give an advantage over smaller or less diversified competitors.
- Debt reduction and high liquidity could support investment in new projects, including renewable fuels.
What would break the thesis
- If crude prices fall or margins narrow, profitability could return quickly to lower levels, as happened in 2024.
- Geopolitical tensions and tariffs could raise costs and reduce demand, affecting especially the retail segment.
- Recent results are shaped by temporary factors such as the high 2026 margins and earlier price effects, which makes continuity hard to project.
What to watch
- Full return of Hawaii refinery capacity after maintenance workQ3 2026
- Start-up of the Hawaii renewable fuels facility2026
- EPA decision on small refinery exemptions for the 2025 compliance yearnext 10-K
- Evolution of refining margins and crude prices after OPEC output increaseQ3 2026
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 05 Aug 2026; since then the company filed 8-K (04 Nov 2026 · results), 10-Q (04 Nov 2026).
The business
Par Pacific Holdings, Inc., headquartered in Houston, Texas, describes itself as a growth-oriented energy company providing both renewable and conventional fuels to the western United States.1 Its activity is organized into three main segments: refining, retail and logistics. The company also holds minority stakes, including 46% of Laramie Energy, LLC, a natural gas producer in Colorado.1
In fiscal 2025 revenues were 7464.65 million USD and net income attributable to stockholders was 369.4 million USD, compared with a net loss in 2024.1 Results are shaped by crude oil prices and refining margins, which fluctuate widely from year to year, and the company notes that it operates in logistically complex, niche markets.1
The company's refineries have total operating crude throughput capacity of 219 Mbpd and are located in Kapolei (Hawaii), Newcastle (Wyoming), Tacoma (Washington) and Billings (Montana).1 The company says it tailors its product slate to local demand, and in the second quarter of 2026 it announced that the Hawaii turnaround was substantially complete.3
Segments
Market context
Trends
- Geopolitical tensions and price volatilitymixed
Conflicts involving Ukraine, the Middle East and the Red Sea, along with tensions around Iran, have increased crude price volatility and freight costs. For a refiner this volatility can widen margins, but it can also complicate supply and raise operating costs.12
- Trade policy and tariffsheadwind
US tariffs and the February 2026 Supreme Court ruling have added uncertainty to global trade. Higher feedstock costs may be hard to pass on to customers, which could weigh on margins if tensions escalate.1
- Stronger refining margins in 2026tailwind
Refining margins improved significantly in the second quarter of 2026, supported by higher product prices. If the favourable environment persists, results could stay solid, but margins remain sensitive to falling prices.3
- Shift toward renewable fuelsmixed
The company formed a joint venture for a renewable fuels facility next to its Hawaii refinery, expected to begin operations in the first half of 2026. Federal renewable fuel programs and environmental rules add cost and uncertainty.1
Competitive position
The energy industry is highly competitive. Competitors include major integrated, national and independent energy companies, some with greater financial and technical resources that may let them withstand adverse market conditions better.1 In Hawaii retail the company faces national brands such as Shell, Texaco, Costco and Safeway, and in the Pacific Northwest Chevron, Exxon and Conoco, plus regional brands.1
The company competes in niche markets where each refinery has its own logistical advantages and disadvantages relative to market benchmarks.1 Convenience store chains and regional operators can influence retail pricing and customer loyalty, which matter for the retail segment.1
- Marathon PetroleumMPC
Refining company cited in the context of the broader energy competitive landscape, though not explicitly named in the analysed sources for western US retail or refining.
- Valero EnergyVLO
Refiner competing in the US energy industry, cited as an example of a larger integrated company that may react more easily to difficult market conditions.
- ChevronCVX
Integrated company that appears in the analysed sources among national brands competing in Pacific Northwest retail.
- Shell
National brand competing in Hawaii retail, named in the company's annual report.
Links, dependencies and risks
Who the company is tied to, from its own SEC filings (customers, suppliers, production, partners, competitors, countries, regulation), from the 5 %+ holders' statements (13D/13G) and from what other companies say about it. Click a node for its evidence; on a listed company the graph moves to it.
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News & filings
In the press
- Par Pacific to exit Colorado natural gas investment for $146MYahoo Finance — News · 27 Aug 2026 · EN
- Wiltshire village exhibits Martin Parr’s final photos of scarecrows and prize vegThe Guardian World · 18 Jun 2026 · RO
The latest news item in our archive is from 27 Aug 2026; the newest SEC filing is from 04 Nov 2026. The press archive comes from the RSS feeds we follow and does not necessarily cover the latest event — the filings alongside do.
SEC filings
- Quarterly report04 Nov 2026
- Current report04 Nov 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report28 Sept 2026Departure or appointment of officers · Other events · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report25 Aug 2026Regulation FD disclosure · Other events · Financial statements and exhibits
- Quarterly report05 Aug 2026
- Current report05 Aug 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report14 May 2026Material agreement · Creation of a direct financial obligation · Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report11 May 2026Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
- Quarterly report06 May 2026
- Current report05 May 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
Sources
- [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · SEC / Par Pacific Holdings, Inc. · 25 Feb 2026
- [2] Form 10-Q, quarter ended 2026-06-30 · SEC / Par Pacific Holdings, Inc. · 05 Aug 2026
- [3] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / Par Pacific Holdings, Inc. · 05 Aug 2026
Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.