olivLaw · US equity research
Matador Resources Company MTDR
Crude Petroleum & Natural Gas · SIC 1311 · Vertical: Crude Petroleum & Natural Gas (SIC 1311)
Matador Resources is an independent energy company that explores, develops and produces oil and natural gas, focused mainly on the Delaware Basin in the Permian, and also offers midstream services through its San Mateo subsidiary. Its rising production and recent 2026 acquisitions make it relevant for investors following the sector, with oil and natural gas revenues of $3.24 billion in 2025 and average daily production of 207,070 BOE.
The AI analysis may be outdated: new filings came after its sources (see the «AI analysis» section).
At the close of 05 Nov 2026, Matador Resources Company (MTDR) stock was 49.87 USD (−0.99% on the day), with market capitalisation 6.2 bn USD, P/E 8.6 on diluted EPS of 5.83 USD over the last 12 months, dividend yield 2.88%, beta 0.75, 52-week range 37.94–65.45 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q2 2026): revenue of 1.2 bn USD (+32.5% YoY), net income of 390.7 m USD (+160.0% YoY), diluted EPS 3.15 USD.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
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Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 33.1
- weak (30–45)
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 50.54 – 62.59
- below the lower band · %B -0.06 · band width 21.3%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 56.32 / 54.66
- mixed trend
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- -0.44 / 0.51
- MACD below signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | S&P 500 | vs S&P 500 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | −5.7% | −5.9% | +0.2 pp | — |
| 3 months | +2.5% | −4.6% | +7.1 pp | — |
| 6 months | −10.3% | +0.2% | −10.5 pp | — |
| Year to date | +17.5% | +7.4% | +10.1 pp | — |
| 1 year | +34.1% | +8.2% | +25.9 pp | +15.7% |
| 3 years | −17.3% | +68.4% | −85.8 pp | −2.1% |
| 5 years | +14.2% | +56.5% | −42.4 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
Latest quarter: Q2 2026 · 30 Jun 2026
Quarterly margins
Quarterly statements · USD
| Fiscal year | Q3 '24 | Q4 '24 | Q1 '25 | Q2 '25 | Q3 '25 | Q4 '25 | Q1 '26 | Q2 '26 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 899.8 m | 970.4 m | 1.0 bn | 895.3 m | 939.0 m | 848.0 m | 671.6 m | 1.2 bn |
| Operating income | 392.1 m | 360.1 m | 389.2 m | 288.7 m | 306.0 m | 242.7 m | 46.8 m | 577.3 m |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 242.8 m | 293.2 m | 281.9 m | 302.6 m | 305.4 m | 305.5 m | 292.7 m | 315.1 m |
| Interest expense | 36.2 m | 60.0 m | 49.5 m | 53.3 m | 50.6 m | 55.0 m | 51.5 m | 60.8 m |
| Pre-tax income | 358.0 m | 300.2 m | 345.2 m | 238.8 m | 259.8 m | 189.7 m | -16.5 m | 520.5 m |
| Income tax | 85.3 m | 62.3 m | 82.9 m | 56.5 m | 59.1 m | -25.8 m | -684.0 k | 106.8 m |
| Net income | 248.3 m | 214.5 m | 240.1 m | 150.2 m | 176.4 m | 192.5 m | -35.9 m | 390.7 m |
| Diluted EPS | 1.99 | 1.70 ≈ | 1.92 | 1.21 | 1.42 | 1.55 ≈ | -0.29 | 3.15 |
| Operating cash flow | 610.4 m ≈ | 575.0 m | 727.9 m | 501.0 m ≈ | 721.7 m ≈ | 474.4 m | 470.5 m | 937.1 m ≈ |
| Capex | 2.2 bn | 529.8 m | 554.3 m | 491.4 m | 643.4 m | 466.4 m | 496.9 m | — |
| Dividends paid | 24.9 m ≈ | 31.3 m | 39.2 m | 39.0 m ≈ | 38.7 m ≈ | 46.3 m | 46.8 m | 46.4 m ≈ |
| Share repurchases | 0 ≈ | 0 | 0 | 44.2 m ≈ | 6.5 m ≈ | 5.1 m | 707.0 k | 11.4 m ≈ |
≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Today's P/E sits at the 55 percentile of its own 33-quarter history (min 1.3, median 8.5, max 46.1; quarters with earnings only).
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 899.6 m | 983.7 m | 862.1 m | 1.7 bn | 3.1 bn | 2.8 bn | 3.5 bn | 3.7 bn |
| Revenue YoY | +65.3% | +9.3% | −12.4% | +92.9% | +83.9% | −8.2% | +24.9% | +5.5% |
| Net income | 274.2 m | 87.8 m | -593.2 m | 585.0 m | 1.2 bn | 846.1 m | 885.3 m | 759.2 m |
| Net income YoY | +117.9% | −68.0% | −775.8% | unavailable | +107.6% | −30.3% | +4.6% | −14.2% |
| Diluted EPS | 2.41 | 0.75 | -5.11 | 4.91 | 10.11 | 7.05 | 7.14 | 6.09 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | +95.9% | −68.9% | −781.3% | unavailable | +105.9% | −30.3% | +1.3% | −14.7% |
| net % | 30.5% | 8.9% | -68.8% | 35.2% | 39.7% | 30.1% | 25.3% | 20.5% |
| Free cash flow | -896.1 m | -394.0 m | -244.3 m | 215.4 m | 915.5 m | -1.4 bn | -1.7 bn | 269.6 m |
Reported results vs expectations
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Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025
- Cash
- 15.3 m USD
- Financial debt
- 3.4 bn USD
- Net debt
- 3.4 bn USD
- Equity
- 6.0 bn USD
- Total assets
- 11.7 bn USD
- Debt / equity
- 0.57x
- Current ratio
- 0.79x
- ROE
- 13.3%
- ROA
- 6.7%
- FCF margin
- 7.3%
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (USD)
Margins
Income statement · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 862.1 m | 1.7 bn | 3.1 bn | 2.8 bn | 3.5 bn | 3.7 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Cost of revenue | 41.5 m | 61.5 m | 95.5 m | 124.0 m | 167.4 m | 208.1 m | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Gross profit | 820.6 m ≈ | 1.6 bn ≈ | 3.0 bn ≈ | 2.7 bn ≈ | 3.3 bn ≈ | 3.5 bn ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026derived |
| Operating income | -521.5 m | 793.1 m | 1.8 bn | 1.2 bn | 1.4 bn | 1.2 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 361.8 m | 344.9 m | 466.3 m | 716.7 m | 974.3 m | 1.2 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| EBITDA | -159.7 m ≈ | 1.1 bn ≈ | 2.2 bn ≈ | 1.9 bn ≈ | 2.4 bn ≈ | 2.4 bn ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026derived |
| Interest expense | 76.7 m | 74.7 m | 67.2 m | 121.5 m | 171.7 m | 208.5 m | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Pre-tax income | -599.2 m | 715.3 m | 1.7 bn | 1.1 bn | 1.3 bn | 1.0 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Income tax | -45.6 m | 74.7 m | 399.4 m | 186.0 m | 292.4 m | 172.7 m | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Net income | -593.2 m | 585.0 m | 1.2 bn | 846.1 m | 885.3 m | 759.2 m | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | -5.11 | 4.91 | 10.11 | 7.05 | 7.14 | 6.09 | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Weighted average diluted shares | 116.1 m | 119.2 m | 120.1 m | 120.0 m | 124.1 m | 124.6 m | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Dividend per share | — | 0.13 | 0.30 | 0.65 | 0.85 | 1.31 | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Revenue − Cost of revenue; Operating income + Depreciation & amortisation.
Balance sheet · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 57.9 m | 48.1 m | 505.2 m | 52.7 m | 23.0 m | 15.3 m | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Receivables | 85.1 m | 164.2 m | 224.9 m | 274.2 m | 331.6 m | 286.2 m | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Current assets | 261.6 m | 371.3 m | 1.1 bn | 715.9 m | 927.3 m | 816.6 m | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | 3.4 bn | 3.9 bn | 4.4 bn | 7.0 bn | 9.8 bn | 10.7 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 08 May 2026verified |
| Total assets | 3.7 bn | 4.3 bn | 5.6 bn | 7.7 bn | 10.9 bn | 11.7 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Accounts payable | 14.0 m | 26.3 m | 58.8 m | 68.2 m | 147.1 m | 540.6 m | SEC (XBRL)· 08 May 2026verified |
| Long-term debt | — | — | 1.2 bn | 2.2 bn | 3.3 bn | 3.4 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Current liabilities | 290.9 m | 464.8 m | 575.9 m | 685.3 m | 995.4 m | 1.0 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Equity | 1.5 bn | 2.1 bn | 3.3 bn | 4.1 bn | 5.5 bn | 6.0 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
Cash flow · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | 477.6 m | 1.1 bn | 2.0 bn | 1.9 bn | 2.2 bn | 2.4 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Capex | 721.8 m | 837.9 m | 1.1 bn | 3.2 bn | 3.9 bn | 2.2 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Free cash flow | -244.3 m ≈ | 215.4 m ≈ | 915.5 m ≈ | -1.4 bn ≈ | -1.7 bn ≈ | 269.6 m ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026derived |
| Investing cash flow | -775.7 m | -729.3 m | -1.0 bn | -3.2 bn | -3.7 bn | -2.2 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Financing cash flow | 324.3 m | -328.6 m | -480.9 m | 902.3 m | 1.4 bn | -282.6 m | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Dividends paid | 0 | 14.6 m | 35.2 m | 77.2 m | 104.9 m | 163.1 m | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Share repurchases | — | — | — | 0 | 0 | 55.8 m | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating cash flow − Capex.
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
Risk
Valuation
olivLaw classification
Score: 52 / 100
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
05 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 6.2 bn USD
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
- Returns68
- Growth27
- Balance sheet21
- Valuation80
- Quality54
Estimated value range
The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 39.16 – 137.61 USD.
Methods computed but outside the aggregate range: Dividend discount (DDM) (a small share of earnings is paid as dividends (capital returns through buybacks): the dividend model does not describe the value and stays outside the aggregate).
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Method ranges (USD per share)
— — Mid · ▏ Price
Valuation methods
- DCF (discounted cash flow)62.80 – 137.61 (Mid 89.26)WACC 7.6% · starting FCFF 691.8 m USD · terminal value share of EV 79%The WACC × g sensitivity gives the method's bounds; these are not probabilities.Reverse DCF: starting growth implied by the price (fading linearly to terminal growth, everything else fixed): -9.6%
- Peers: EV/EBITDA39.16 – 75.98 (Mid 65.37)12 companies used · median multiple 5.1x · quartiles 3.8x – 5.7xAPA, BKV, EOG, EQT, EXE, FANG, GPOR, MGY, MUR, OVV, VIST, WTI
- Peers: P/E49.79 – 72.43 (Mid 65.45)20 companies used · median multiple 11.2x · quartiles 8.5x – 12.4xANNA, APA, BKV, DMLP, DVN, EOG, EQT, EXE, GPOR, KGEI, KRP, MGY, MUR, MXC, OVV, OXY, PNRG, PR, VIST, WDS
- Dividend discount (DDM)outside the aggregate17.25 – 23.20 (Mid 19.78)a small share of earnings is paid as dividends (capital returns through buybacks): the dividend model does not describe the value and stays outside the aggregate
Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 4.3%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 9.3%
- Terminal growth
- 2.5%
Factor scorecard
Neutral profile · Score 52/100
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | 10.3% | 47 (vs peers) | 10% |
| Net margin · Quality | 19.9% | 62 (vs peers) | 6% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | 69.9% | 57 (on a fixed band) | 6% |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | 6.5% | 54 (on a fixed band) | 8% |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | -15.5% | 0 (on a fixed band) | 8% |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | 1.8x | 7 (vs peers) | 10% |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | 5.4x | 60 (on a fixed band) | 6% |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 0.7x | 0 (on a fixed band) | 4% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | 8.6x | 77 (vs peers) | 10% |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | 4.3x | 67 (vs peers) | 10% |
| FCF yield · Valuation | 8.2% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 8% |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | 3.3% | 47 (on a fixed band) | 6% |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | 35.2% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 4% |
Score groups
- Balance sheet21/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
- Growth27/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
- Quality54/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
- Returns68/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
- Valuation80/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
Memo
Matador Resources Company (MTDR). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2026-06-30.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 3.7 bn USD in 2025; YoY growth 5.5%; net margin 19.9%; ROE 12.8%; net debt/EBITDA 1.8x.
The estimated value range is 49.79–75.98 USD per share (median of 3 methods, agreement: medium); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 65.45 USD, the price of 49.87 USD leaves a potential of 31.2% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of 23.8% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
olivLaw score 52/100, methodological classification: neutral profile (score, margin of safety and method agreement together; not a judgement of the right price). Not investment advice.
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- P/E (TTM): 8.6x
- FCF yield: 8.2%
- Payout ratio (FCF): 35.2%
What contradicts it
- EPS CAGR 3Y: -15.5%
- Net debt / EBITDA: 1.8x
- Current ratio: 0.7x
Versus the vertical median
Crude Petroleum & Natural Gas (SIC 1311) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 39 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SHELShell plc | 569.7 bn | 31.9 | 10.1% | 6.7% | −6.1% | +36% / +52% |
| EOGEog Resources, Inc. | 75.1 bn | 9.4 | 25.8% | 27.5% | −4.5% | +34% / +18% |
| OXYOccidental Petroleum Corporation | 56.3 bn | 8.5 | 18.9% | 33.7% | −1.9% | +34% / −5% |
| FANGDiamondback Energy, Inc. | 50.1 bn | 24.5 | 5.3% | 11.0% | +35.8% | +18% / +16% |
| DVNDevon Energy Corp | 47.2 bn | 10.2 | 11.5% | 16.7% | +7.8% | +16% / −5% |
| WDSWoodside Energy Group Ltd | 40.8 bn | 15.1 | 7.6% | 20.9% | −1.5% | +31% / +5% |
| EQTEqt Corporation | 31.7 bn | 12.0 | 10.9% | 28.4% | +63.9% | −17% / +27% |
| EXEExpand Energy Corporation | 19.7 bn | 7.4 | 14.6% | 19.8% | +186.3% | −30% / +6% |
| PRPermian Resources Corporation | 17.9 bn | 11.1 | 14.3% | 25.0% | +1.3% | +47% / +62% |
| OVVOvintiv Inc. | 16.4 bn | 12.3 | 12.1% | 12.8% | −2.7% | +49% / +37% |
| APAApa Corporation | 14.6 bn | 7.1 | 33.0% | — | unavailable | +74% / +21% |
| MGYMagnolia Oil & Gas Corp | 6.3 bn | 14.5 | 13.8% | 25.8% | −0.3% | +2% / +9% |
| MTDRMatador Resources Company | 6.2 bn | 8.6 | 12.8% | 19.9% | +5.5% | +34% / −17% |
| VISTVista Energy, S.A.B. de C.V. | 5.5 bn | 12.4 | 33.3% | 29.0% | +41.0% | +17% / +86% |
| MURMurphy Oil Corporation | 5.2 bn | 11.3 | 8.9% | 15.0% | −10.2% | +13% / −15% |
| CRCCalifornia Resources Corp | 4.0 bn | — | -15.5% | -18.1% | +14.7% | −5% / −11% |
| GPORGulfport Energy Corp | 2.7 bn | 6.0 | 25.9% | 31.7% | +48.5% | −30% / +13% |
| BKVBkv Corporation | 2.0 bn | 8.6 | 10.9% | 15.6% | +9.9% | −34% / unavailable |
| DMLPDorchester Minerals, L.P. | 1.4 bn | 13.2 | — | 49.8% | −5.4% | +24% / −6% |
| KOSKosmos Energy Ltd. | 1.3 bn | — | -58.8% | -27.4% | −23.1% | +96% / −68% |
| TBNTamboran Resources Corporation | 981.3 m | — | -4.8% | — | unavailable | +18% / unavailable |
| GRNTGranite Ridge Resources, Inc. | 616.2 m | — | -8.8% | -9.3% | +18.5% | −9% / −21% |
| WTIW&T Offshore, Inc. | 483.3 m | — | — | -8.4% | −4.5% | +76% / −7% |
| KRPKimbell Royalty Partners, LP | 403.4 m | 4.2 | — | 27.8% | +7.9% | +21% / −2% |
| PNRGPrimeEnergy Resources Corporation | 286.2 m | 17.5 | 11.7% | 13.9% | −20.5% | −2% / +69% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for MTDR from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (USD)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | 30.16 Total return -37% · Per year -37% | 53.28 Total return 10% · Per year 10% | 80.18 Total return 64% · Per year 64% |
| 3 years | 30.48 Total return -32% · Per year -12% | 60.45 Total return 31% · Per year 9% | 99.72 Total return 112% · Per year 29% |
| 5 years | 30.79 Total return -27% · Per year -6% | 68.60 Total return 55% · Per year 9% | 124.03 Total return 172% · Per year 22% |
- Exit P/E± 15.11
- Net margin± 10.58
- Annual revenue growth± 8.52
- Annual dilution± 0.89
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 07 Aug 2026; since then the company filed 8-K (03 Nov 2026 · results).
In brief
Matador Resources is an independent energy company that explores, develops and produces oil and natural gas, focused mainly on the Delaware Basin in the Permian, and also offers midstream services through its San Mateo subsidiary. Its rising production and recent 2026 acquisitions make it relevant for investors following the sector, with oil and natural gas revenues of $3.24 billion in 2025 1 and average daily production of 207,070 BOE 1.
SWOT
Strengths
- The company holds a concentrated, high-quality position in the Delaware Basin, with proved reserves that grew in 2025 and in the first half of 2026 13.
- Integration with the San Mateo midstream subsidiary gives control over gas gathering and processing, reducing the risk of production bottlenecks 1.
- Free cash flow was generated in every quarter of 2025, which allowed debt reduction and a higher dividend 13.
Weaknesses
- Activity is highly concentrated geographically, with almost all proved reserves in the Delaware Basin, increasing exposure to local events 1.
- The company relies on spot market prices for most sales without long-term fixed-price contracts, which amplifies the effect of volatility 1.
- Bank debt tied to recent acquisitions remains a burden, and the target leverage ratio is expected to be reached only near the end of 2027 3.
Opportunities
- The federal and Paloma acreage acquisitions could lower the cost per completed lateral foot and improve well returns 3.
- Development of the Woodford formation, with early results from the Rae's Creek well, could open a new drilling inventory 3.
- Expanded processing capacity through Cardinal Midstream could attract new third-party customers and raise midstream revenues 3.
Threats
- A sustained fall in oil or gas prices could reduce revenues and limit investment plans 1.
- Rules on emissions, hydraulic fracturing and climate change could raise operating costs or slow drilling 1.
- Transport disruptions or Waha bottlenecks could hold back production, as happened in the second quarter of 2026 3.
Risks
- Dependence on hydrocarbon priceshigh
Revenues, cash flow and borrowing capacity depend on oil and gas prices, which can fall sharply and reduce investment plans 1.
- Debt after acquisitionsmedium
Recent acquisitions are funded from credit and cash, and if cash flow falls, debt reduction could be delayed 3.
- Geographic concentrationmedium
Almost all reserves sit in the Delaware Basin, so local infrastructure or regulatory problems could affect the whole company 1.
- Regulation and environmentmedium
Rules on hydraulic fracturing, emissions and climate change could impose extra costs or operating limits 1.
- Acquisition executionlow
Integrating the Paloma and Ridge Runner acquisitions depends on regulatory approvals and timely closing, and transaction costs could be high 23.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- If record production and Delaware Basin acquisitions translate into lower costs per lateral foot, margins could widen significantly in 2027 3.
- Debt reduction from free cash flow could leave room for larger dividends and share buybacks 13.
- The Hugh Brinson pipeline could lift gas revenues if Gulf Coast prices stay better than Waha prices 3.
What would break the thesis
- If oil prices stay weak for a long time, cash flow could be insufficient to cover investment and recent debt 1.
- Rapid integration of several acquisitions could overstretch operating teams and reduce expected returns 23.
- Environmental rules and public pressure on the industry could limit drilling or raise long-term costs 1.
What to watch
- Closing of the Paloma and Ridge Runner acquisitions and their effect on drilling inventoryQ4 2026
- Start-up of the Hugh Brinson pipeline and realized gas pricesQ3 2026
- Free cash flow trend and debt reduction against the leverage target2027
- Results of the first Woodford wells and reserve recovery estimatesnext 10-K
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 07 Aug 2026; since then the company filed 8-K (03 Nov 2026 · results).
The business
Matador Resources Company is an independent Texas company founded in 2003 that explores, develops, produces and acquires oil and natural gas in the United States, with an emphasis on shale and other unconventional plays 1. Its main activity is in the oil and liquids-rich portion of the Wolfcamp and Bone Spring plays in the Delaware Basin in Southeast New Mexico and West Texas, with additional operations in the Haynesville and Cotton Valley plays in Northwest Louisiana 1. The company also runs midstream operations through San Mateo, which it owns 51%, providing gas processing, oil transport and produced water services 1.
Production and reserves grew in 2025: oil output rose 20% to 43.7 million barrels, and total proved reserves reached 667.0 million BOE at December 31, 2025 1. In the first half of 2026 the company reported record oil production in the second quarter and announced Delaware Basin acquisitions, some of which are expected to close in the fourth quarter of 2026 3. The capital structure improved, and the company kept paying quarterly dividends 13.
The company focuses its capital budget on Delaware Basin development, with an estimated 2026 drilling, completing and equipping budget of $1.48 to $1.56 billion, raised in an August 2026 update 3. For midstream, the estimated 2026 capital expenditures are $145 to $165 million 3.
Segments
Exploration and production
The main segment covers the Delaware Basin, where Matador holds about 354,600 gross acres, and nearly all proved reserves relate to this area 1. Northwest Louisiana activity is smaller, and the Eagle Ford operations in South Texas were sold in the first quarter of 2025 1.
Midstream (San Mateo)
The San Mateo subsidiary, owned 51% by Matador and 49% by partner Five Point, has 720 MMcf per day of cryogenic gas processing capacity and serves both Matador production and third-party customers 1. The Cardinal Midstream acquisition, closed in July 2026, added a processing plant and gathering systems in West Texas 3.
Market context
Revenues depend directly on oil and gas prices, which are volatile and influenced by demand, OPEC+ and geopolitical conflicts 1. In 2025 the average WTI oil price was $64.73 per barrel, compared with $75.76 in 2024, and Henry Hub gas averaged $3.62 per MMBtu 1. The Delaware Basin market is dominated by large independent producers and integrated companies, and access to transport and processing infrastructure shapes realized prices 1.
Trends
- Delaware Basin acquisitionstailwind
Matador has announced several acquisitions of undeveloped acreage and drilling locations in the Delaware Basin, including a federal lease sale and agreements for Paloma and Ridge Runner, which could add drilling inventory for several years 3.
- Natural gas recoverytailwind
The Hugh Brinson pipeline could reduce exposure to weak Waha prices and could raise gas revenues by about $90 million a year for each $0.50 per MMBtu increase in realized price 3.
- Crude price volatilityheadwind
Oil prices fell from $80.04 to $55.27 per barrel during 2025, which could reduce cash flow and borrowing capacity if the trend persists 1.
- Cost inflation and regulationmixed
Service and equipment costs have risen in recent years, and new rules on emissions and hydraulic fracturing could add compliance costs 1.
Competitive position
Matador competes with other independent producers in the Delaware Basin and with integrated companies, some with superior technology and data, which could affect drilling costs and access to good locations 1. Competition is also intense in midstream, where third parties can offer alternative processing and transport 1.
Matador's advantages include its scale in the Delaware Basin and integration with San Mateo, which gives it control over gas flow to customers 13. If other operators rapidly expand processing capacity, that flow advantage could shrink.
- Diamondback EnergyFANG
Independent oil producer in the Permian Basin with a comparable position in Delaware.
- Permian ResourcesPR
Independent company with significant Delaware Basin assets, competing directly for acreage and drilling locations.
- Occidental PetroleumOXY
Integrated company with large Permian operations that can influence service prices and infrastructure access.
- ChevronCVX
Integrated company producing in the Permian Basin, with access to capital and refining that gives it a different position.
Links, dependencies and risks
Who the company is tied to, from its own SEC filings (customers, suppliers, production, partners, competitors, countries, regulation), from the 5 %+ holders' statements (13D/13G) and from what other companies say about it. Click a node for its evidence; on a listed company the graph moves to it.
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News & filings
In the press
- Greetings from Mexico City, where a bullfighting ban doesn't stop this matador trainingNPR News · 15 Oct 2026 · EN
- Here’s Why Analysts Downgraded Matador Resources Company (MTDR)Yahoo Finance — News · 08 Sept 2026 · EN
The latest news item in our archive is from 15 Oct 2026; the newest SEC filing is from 03 Nov 2026. The press archive comes from the RSS feeds we follow and does not necessarily cover the latest event — the filings alongside do.
SEC filings
- Current report03 Nov 2026Results of operations · Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report21 Oct 2026Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report05 Oct 2026Acquisition or disposition of assets · Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report10 Sept 2026Departure or appointment of officers · Financial statements and exhibits
- Quarterly report07 Aug 2026
- Current report05 Aug 2026Results of operations · Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report24 Jul 2026Material agreement · Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report22 Jul 2026Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report16 Jun 2026Material agreement · Creation of a direct financial obligation · Shareholder vote · Financial statements and exhibits
- Quarterly report08 May 2026
Sources
- [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · SEC / Matador Resources Company · 26 Feb 2026
- [2] Form 10-Q, quarter ended 2026-06-30 · SEC / Matador Resources Company · 07 Aug 2026
- [3] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / Matador Resources Company · 05 Aug 2026
Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.