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olivLaw · US equity research

Matador Resources Company MTDR

Crude Petroleum & Natural Gas · SIC 1311 · Vertical: Crude Petroleum & Natural Gas (SIC 1311)

49.87USD−0.99% · 1 dayClose 05 Nov 2026

Matador Resources is an independent energy company that explores, develops and produces oil and natural gas, focused mainly on the Delaware Basin in the Permian, and also offers midstream services through its San Mateo subsidiary. Its rising production and recent 2026 acquisitions make it relevant for investors following the sector, with oil and natural gas revenues of $3.24 billion in 2025 and average daily production of 207,070 BOE.

The AI analysis may be outdated: new filings came after its sources (see the «AI analysis» section).

At the close of 05 Nov 2026, Matador Resources Company (MTDR) stock was 49.87 USD (−0.99% on the day), with market capitalisation 6.2 bn USD, P/E 8.6 on diluted EPS of 5.83 USD over the last 12 months, dividend yield 2.88%, beta 0.75, 52-week range 37.94–65.45 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q2 2026): revenue of 1.2 bn USD (+32.5% YoY), net income of 390.7 m USD (+160.0% YoY), diluted EPS 3.15 USD.

Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.

Market cap
6.2 bn USD
shares as of 05 Aug 2026
P/E (TTM)
8.6
Diluted EPS TTM 5.83 · TTM to 30 Jun 2026
E/P (TTM)
11.69%
TTM to 30 Jun 2026
Dividend yield
2.88%
DPS 12m 1.44
Beta (2y)
0.75
Volatility (1y) 43%
52-week range
37.9465.45

Price history

Loading chart…

Technical reading

RSI (14)
33.1
weak (30–45)
Bollinger (20, 2)
50.54 – 62.59
below the lower band · %B -0.06 · band width 21.3%
SMA 50 / 200
56.32 / 54.66
mixed trend
MACD (12, 26, 9)
-0.44 / 0.51
MACD below signal

Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).

Performance

CompanyS&P 500vs S&P 500Vertical median
1 month−5.7%−5.9%+0.2 pp—
3 months+2.5%−4.6%+7.1 pp—
6 months−10.3%+0.2%−10.5 pp—
Year to date+17.5%+7.4%+10.1 pp—
1 year+34.1%+8.2%+25.9 pp+15.7%
3 years−17.3%+68.4%−85.8 pp−2.1%
5 years+14.2%+56.5%−42.4 pp—
Max drawdown (1y)
−29.5%
27 Mar 2026 → 28 Jul 2026
Max drawdown (5y)
−50.0%
07 Nov 2022 → 08 Apr 2025
Compound annual growth (5y)
+2.7%
S&P 500 +9.4%

Price returns, dividends excluded.

Quarterly results

Latest quarter: Q2 2026 · 30 Jun 2026

Revenue
1.2 bn USD
+32.5% YoY
Net income
390.7 m USD
+160.0% YoY
Diluted EPS
3.15
+160.3% YoY
net / operating
32.9% / 48.7%

Quarterly margins

Quarterly statements · USD

Fiscal yearQ3 '24Q4 '24Q1 '25Q2 '25Q3 '25Q4 '25Q1 '26Q2 '26
Revenue899.8 m970.4 m1.0 bn895.3 m939.0 m848.0 m671.6 m1.2 bn
Operating income392.1 m360.1 m389.2 m288.7 m306.0 m242.7 m46.8 m577.3 m
Depreciation & amortisation242.8 m293.2 m281.9 m302.6 m305.4 m305.5 m292.7 m315.1 m
Interest expense36.2 m60.0 m49.5 m53.3 m50.6 m55.0 m51.5 m60.8 m
Pre-tax income358.0 m300.2 m345.2 m238.8 m259.8 m189.7 m-16.5 m520.5 m
Income tax85.3 m62.3 m82.9 m56.5 m59.1 m-25.8 m-684.0 k106.8 m
Net income248.3 m214.5 m240.1 m150.2 m176.4 m192.5 m-35.9 m390.7 m
Diluted EPS1.991.70 ≈1.921.211.421.55 ≈-0.293.15
Operating cash flow610.4 m ≈575.0 m727.9 m501.0 m ≈721.7 m ≈474.4 m470.5 m937.1 m ≈
Capex2.2 bn529.8 m554.3 m491.4 m643.4 m466.4 m496.9 m—
Dividends paid24.9 m ≈31.3 m39.2 m39.0 m ≈38.7 m ≈46.3 m46.8 m46.4 m ≈
Share repurchases0 ≈0044.2 m ≈6.5 m ≈5.1 m707.0 k11.4 m ≈

≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)

E/P over time

E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.

Today's P/E sits at the 55 percentile of its own 33-quarter history (min 1.3, median 8.5, max 46.1; quarters with earnings only).

Fiscal years

Fiscal year20182019202020212022202320242025
Revenue899.6 m983.7 m862.1 m1.7 bn3.1 bn2.8 bn3.5 bn3.7 bn
Revenue YoY+65.3%+9.3%−12.4%+92.9%+83.9%−8.2%+24.9%+5.5%
Net income274.2 m87.8 m-593.2 m585.0 m1.2 bn846.1 m885.3 m759.2 m
Net income YoY+117.9%−68.0%−775.8%unavailable+107.6%−30.3%+4.6%−14.2%
Diluted EPS2.410.75-5.114.9110.117.057.146.09
Diluted EPS YoY+95.9%−68.9%−781.3%unavailable+105.9%−30.3%+1.3%−14.7%
net %30.5%8.9%-68.8%35.2%39.7%30.1%25.3%20.5%
Free cash flow-896.1 m-394.0 m-244.3 m215.4 m915.5 m-1.4 bn-1.7 bn269.6 m

Reported results vs expectations

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Balance sheet & financial health

Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025

Cash
15.3 m USD
Financial debt
3.4 bn USD
Net debt
3.4 bn USD
Equity
6.0 bn USD
Total assets
11.7 bn USD
Debt / equity
0.57x
Current ratio
0.79x
ROE
13.3%
ROA
6.7%
FCF margin
7.3%

Financial statements (source on every figure)

Revenue and net income (USD)

Margins

Income statement · USD

Revenue
2023
2.8 bn
2024
3.5 bn
2025
3.7 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Cost of revenue
2023
124.0 m
2024
167.4 m
2025
208.1 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Gross profit
2023
2.7 bn ≈
2024
3.3 bn ≈
2025
3.5 bn ≈

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026derived

Operating income
2023
1.2 bn
2024
1.4 bn
2025
1.2 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Depreciation & amortisation
2023
716.7 m
2024
974.3 m
2025
1.2 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

EBITDA
2023
1.9 bn ≈
2024
2.4 bn ≈
2025
2.4 bn ≈

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026derived

Interest expense
2023
121.5 m
2024
171.7 m
2025
208.5 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Pre-tax income
2023
1.1 bn
2024
1.3 bn
2025
1.0 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Income tax
2023
186.0 m
2024
292.4 m
2025
172.7 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Net income
2023
846.1 m
2024
885.3 m
2025
759.2 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Diluted EPS
2023
7.05
2024
7.14
2025
6.09

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Weighted average diluted shares
2023
120.0 m
2024
124.1 m
2025
124.6 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Dividend per share
2023
0.65
2024
0.85
2025
1.31

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Balance sheet · USD

Cash
2023
52.7 m
2024
23.0 m
2025
15.3 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Receivables
2023
274.2 m
2024
331.6 m
2025
286.2 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Current assets
2023
715.9 m
2024
927.3 m
2025
816.6 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Property, plant & equipment, net
2023
7.0 bn
2024
9.8 bn
2025
10.7 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 08 May 2026verified

Total assets
2023
7.7 bn
2024
10.9 bn
2025
11.7 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Accounts payable
2023
68.2 m
2024
147.1 m
2025
540.6 m

SEC (XBRL)· 08 May 2026verified

Long-term debt
2023
2.2 bn
2024
3.3 bn
2025
3.4 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Current liabilities
2023
685.3 m
2024
995.4 m
2025
1.0 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Equity
2023
4.1 bn
2024
5.5 bn
2025
6.0 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Cash flow · USD

Operating cash flow
2023
1.9 bn
2024
2.2 bn
2025
2.4 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Capex
2023
3.2 bn
2024
3.9 bn
2025
2.2 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Free cash flow
2023
-1.4 bn ≈
2024
-1.7 bn ≈
2025
269.6 m ≈

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026derived

Investing cash flow
2023
-3.2 bn
2024
-3.7 bn
2025
-2.2 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Financing cash flow
2023
902.3 m
2024
1.4 bn
2025
-282.6 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Dividends paid
2023
77.2 m
2024
104.9 m
2025
163.1 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Share repurchases
2023
0
2024
0
2025
55.8 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Computed indicators

Growth

Revenue growth (YoY)
5.5%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Revenue CAGR 3Y
6.5%
computed by olivLawFY 2022 → FY 2025
Revenue CAGR 5Y
33.8%
computed by olivLawFY 2020 → FY 2025
EBIT growth (YoY)
-14.5%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Net income growth (YoY)
-14.2%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Net income CAGR 3Y
-14.5%
computed by olivLawFY 2022 → FY 2025
Net income CAGR 5Y
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
EPS growth (YoY)
-14.7%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
EPS CAGR 3Y
-15.5%
computed by olivLawFY 2022 → FY 2025
EPS CAGR 5Y
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
FCF growth (YoY)
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive

Profitability

Gross margin
94.3%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
EBITDA margin
65.6%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
EBIT margin
32.2%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Net margin
19.9%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
FCF margin
13.9%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026

Returns

ROE
12.8%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
ROA
5.8%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
ROIC
10.3%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
ROCE
9.8%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Payout ratio (EPS)
24.7%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Payout ratio (FCF)
35.2%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026

Balance sheet

Net debt
4.2 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Net debt / EBITDA
1.8x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Debt / equity
0.7x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Interest coverage
5.4x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026

Liquidity

Current ratio
0.7x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Quick ratio
unavailable
input data missing
Cash ratio
0.0x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026

Cash

Operating cash flow
2.6 bn USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Capital expenditure
2.1 bn USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 31 Mar 2026
Free cash flow
505.7 m USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
FCF conversion
69.9%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Cash conversion
108.9%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026

Efficiency

Days sales outstanding
37 days
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Days inventory outstanding
unavailable
input data missing
Days payables outstanding
860 days
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Cash conversion cycle
unavailable
input data missing

Market and valuation

Market capitalisation
6.2 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Enterprise value
10.4 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Market cap / net income TTM
8.5x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
P/E (TTM)
8.6x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Earnings yield
11.7%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
P/B
1.0x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
P/S
1.7x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
EV/EBITDA
4.3x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
EV/EBIT
8.8x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
EV/Sales
2.8x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
P/FCF
12.2x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
FCF yield
8.2%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Dividend yield
2.9%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Shareholder yield (distributions)
3.3%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026

Risk

Altman Z
unavailable
input data missing

Valuation

olivLaw classification

Neutral profile

Score: 52 / 100

A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.

Closing price

49.87 USD

05 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series

Market cap: 6.2 bn USD

Key indicators

Market capitalisation
6.2 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
P/E (TTM)
8.6x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
P/B
1.0x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
EV/EBITDA
4.3x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
ROE
12.8%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Net margin
19.9%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Revenue growth (YoY)
5.5%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Dividend yield
2.9%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026

Coverage and freshness

29/37 reporting lines present
Latest full fiscal year: 2025
Latest reported period: 30 Jun 2026
Latest balance sheet date: 30 Jun 2026
Share count (cover of the latest filing), as of: 05 Aug 2026
Source: SEC (XBRL)published 07 Aug 2026
verified 1965derived 166

Score by group

  • Returns68
  • Growth27
  • Balance sheet21
  • Valuation80
  • Quality54

Estimated value range

Low
49.79
USD per share
Mid
65.45
USD per share
High
75.98
USD per share
Price: 49.87 USD
The price is within the range
Potential to the central value: 31.2% (value / price − 1)
Margin of safety: 23.8% (1 − price / value)
Agreement between methods: medium · 3 methods used · 2 independent bases

The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 39.16 – 137.61 USD.

Methods computed but outside the aggregate range: Dividend discount (DDM) (a small share of earnings is paid as dividends (capital returns through buybacks): the dividend model does not describe the value and stays outside the aggregate).

Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.

Method ranges (USD per share)

— — Mid · ▏ Price

Valuation methods

  • DCF (discounted cash flow)62.80 – 137.61 (Mid 89.26)
    WACC 7.6% · starting FCFF 691.8 m USD · terminal value share of EV 79%
    The WACC × g sensitivity gives the method's bounds; these are not probabilities.
    Reverse DCF: starting growth implied by the price (fading linearly to terminal growth, everything else fixed): -9.6%
  • Peers: EV/EBITDA39.16 – 75.98 (Mid 65.37)
    12 companies used · median multiple 5.1x · quartiles 3.8x – 5.7x
    APA, BKV, EOG, EQT, EXE, FANG, GPOR, MGY, MUR, OVV, VIST, WTI
  • Peers: P/E49.79 – 72.43 (Mid 65.45)
    20 companies used · median multiple 11.2x · quartiles 8.5x – 12.4x
    ANNA, APA, BKV, DMLP, DVN, EOG, EQT, EXE, GPOR, KGEI, KRP, MGY, MUR, MXC, OVV, OXY, PNRG, PR, VIST, WDS
  • Dividend discount (DDM)outside the aggregate17.25 – 23.20 (Mid 19.78)
    a small share of earnings is paid as dividends (capital returns through buybacks): the dividend model does not describe the value and stays outside the aggregate
Multiple comparisons use the SIC vertical: Crude Petroleum & Natural Gas (SIC 1311)

Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.

Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)

Risk-free rate
4.3%
Equity risk premium
5.0%
Beta (default)
1.00
Cost of equity
9.3%
Terminal growth
2.5%

Factor scorecard

Neutral profile · Score 52/100

FactorValueScoreWeight used
ROIC · Quality10.3%47 (vs peers)10%
Net margin · Quality19.9%62 (vs peers)6%
FCF conversion · Quality69.9%57 (on a fixed band)6%
Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth6.5%54 (on a fixed band)8%
EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth-15.5%0 (on a fixed band)8%
Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet1.8x7 (vs peers)10%
Interest coverage · Balance sheet5.4x60 (on a fixed band)6%
Current ratio · Balance sheet0.7x0 (on a fixed band)4%
P/E (TTM) · Valuation8.6x77 (vs peers)10%
EV/EBITDA · Valuation4.3x67 (vs peers)10%
FCF yield · Valuation8.2%100 (on a fixed band)8%
Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns3.3%47 (on a fixed band)6%
Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns35.2%100 (on a fixed band)4%

Score groups

  • Balance sheet21/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
  • Growth27/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
  • Quality54/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
  • Returns68/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
  • Valuation80/100 · 3/3 factors with a value

Memo

Matador Resources Company (MTDR). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2026-06-30.

Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 3.7 bn USD in 2025; YoY growth 5.5%; net margin 19.9%; ROE 12.8%; net debt/EBITDA 1.8x.

The estimated value range is 49.79–75.98 USD per share (median of 3 methods, agreement: medium); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 65.45 USD, the price of 49.87 USD leaves a potential of 31.2% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of 23.8% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.

olivLaw score 52/100, methodological classification: neutral profile (score, margin of safety and method agreement together; not a judgement of the right price). Not investment advice.

Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.

What supports the thesis

  • P/E (TTM): 8.6x
  • FCF yield: 8.2%
  • Payout ratio (FCF): 35.2%

What contradicts it

  • EPS CAGR 3Y: -15.5%
  • Net debt / EBITDA: 1.8x
  • Current ratio: 0.7x

Versus the vertical median

Crude Petroleum & Natural Gas (SIC 1311) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 39 companies

Multiples and returns vs the median

P/E
8.6x
vertical median 11.5x
below median (−25.6%)
EV/EBITDA
4.3x
vertical median 5.1x
below median (−15.6%)
P/S
1.7x
vertical median 2.3x
below median (−27.5%)
P/B
1.0x
vertical median 1.2x
below median (−16.6%)
ROE
12.8%
vertical median 7.9%
above median (+62.6%)
Net margin
19.9%
vertical median 13.9%
above median (+43.1%)
EBIT margin
32.2%
vertical median 19.1%
above median (+68.3%)
Revenue YoY
5.5%
vertical median -1.5%
above median
Net debt/EBITDA
1.8x
vertical median 0.9x
above median (+99.9%)
Dividend yield
2.9%
vertical median 2.6%
above median (+10.2%)

Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)

Companies in the vertical

Market capP/EROENet marginRevenue YoY1A / 3A
SHELShell plc569.7 bn31.910.1%6.7%−6.1%+36% / +52%
EOGEog Resources, Inc.75.1 bn9.425.8%27.5%−4.5%+34% / +18%
OXYOccidental Petroleum Corporation56.3 bn8.518.9%33.7%−1.9%+34% / −5%
FANGDiamondback Energy, Inc.50.1 bn24.55.3%11.0%+35.8%+18% / +16%
DVNDevon Energy Corp47.2 bn10.211.5%16.7%+7.8%+16% / −5%
WDSWoodside Energy Group Ltd40.8 bn15.17.6%20.9%−1.5%+31% / +5%
EQTEqt Corporation31.7 bn12.010.9%28.4%+63.9%−17% / +27%
EXEExpand Energy Corporation19.7 bn7.414.6%19.8%+186.3%−30% / +6%
PRPermian Resources Corporation17.9 bn11.114.3%25.0%+1.3%+47% / +62%
OVVOvintiv Inc.16.4 bn12.312.1%12.8%−2.7%+49% / +37%
APAApa Corporation14.6 bn7.133.0%—unavailable+74% / +21%
MGYMagnolia Oil & Gas Corp6.3 bn14.513.8%25.8%−0.3%+2% / +9%
MTDRMatador Resources Company6.2 bn8.612.8%19.9%+5.5%+34% / −17%
VISTVista Energy, S.A.B. de C.V.5.5 bn12.433.3%29.0%+41.0%+17% / +86%
MURMurphy Oil Corporation5.2 bn11.38.9%15.0%−10.2%+13% / −15%
CRCCalifornia Resources Corp4.0 bn—-15.5%-18.1%+14.7%−5% / −11%
GPORGulfport Energy Corp2.7 bn6.025.9%31.7%+48.5%−30% / +13%
BKVBkv Corporation2.0 bn8.610.9%15.6%+9.9%−34% / unavailable
DMLPDorchester Minerals, L.P.1.4 bn13.2—49.8%−5.4%+24% / −6%
KOSKosmos Energy Ltd.1.3 bn—-58.8%-27.4%−23.1%+96% / −68%
TBNTamboran Resources Corporation981.3 m—-4.8%—unavailable+18% / unavailable
GRNTGranite Ridge Resources, Inc.616.2 m—-8.8%-9.3%+18.5%−9% / −21%
WTIW&T Offshore, Inc.483.3 m——-8.4%−4.5%+76% / −7%
KRPKimbell Royalty Partners, LP403.4 m4.2—27.8%+7.9%+21% / −2%
PNRGPrimeEnergy Resources Corporation286.2 m17.511.7%13.9%−20.5%−2% / +69%

1- and 3-year price returns: for MTDR from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.

olivLaw engine forecast

The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.

The engine has no published run for this company yet.

Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)

Illustrative scenarios

Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.

Bear
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Base
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Bull
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Nothing is saved.

Estimated price (USD)

Estimated priceBearBaseBull
1 years
30.16
Total return -37% · Per year -37%
53.28
Total return 10% · Per year 10%
80.18
Total return 64% · Per year 64%
3 years
30.48
Total return -32% · Per year -12%
60.45
Total return 31% · Per year 9%
99.72
Total return 112% · Per year 29%
5 years
30.79
Total return -27% · Per year -6%
68.60
Total return 55% · Per year 9%
124.03
Total return 172% · Per year 22%
What moves the 3-year price the most
  • Exit P/E± 15.11
  • Net margin± 10.58
  • Annual revenue growth± 8.52
  • Annual dilution± 0.89

AI analysis

AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 07 Aug 2026; since then the company filed 8-K (03 Nov 2026 · results).

In brief

Matador Resources is an independent energy company that explores, develops and produces oil and natural gas, focused mainly on the Delaware Basin in the Permian, and also offers midstream services through its San Mateo subsidiary. Its rising production and recent 2026 acquisitions make it relevant for investors following the sector, with oil and natural gas revenues of $3.24 billion in 2025 1 and average daily production of 207,070 BOE 1.

SWOT

Strengths

  • The company holds a concentrated, high-quality position in the Delaware Basin, with proved reserves that grew in 2025 and in the first half of 2026 13.
  • Integration with the San Mateo midstream subsidiary gives control over gas gathering and processing, reducing the risk of production bottlenecks 1.
  • Free cash flow was generated in every quarter of 2025, which allowed debt reduction and a higher dividend 13.

Weaknesses

  • Activity is highly concentrated geographically, with almost all proved reserves in the Delaware Basin, increasing exposure to local events 1.
  • The company relies on spot market prices for most sales without long-term fixed-price contracts, which amplifies the effect of volatility 1.
  • Bank debt tied to recent acquisitions remains a burden, and the target leverage ratio is expected to be reached only near the end of 2027 3.

Opportunities

  • The federal and Paloma acreage acquisitions could lower the cost per completed lateral foot and improve well returns 3.
  • Development of the Woodford formation, with early results from the Rae's Creek well, could open a new drilling inventory 3.
  • Expanded processing capacity through Cardinal Midstream could attract new third-party customers and raise midstream revenues 3.

Threats

  • A sustained fall in oil or gas prices could reduce revenues and limit investment plans 1.
  • Rules on emissions, hydraulic fracturing and climate change could raise operating costs or slow drilling 1.
  • Transport disruptions or Waha bottlenecks could hold back production, as happened in the second quarter of 2026 3.

Risks

  • Dependence on hydrocarbon priceshigh

    Revenues, cash flow and borrowing capacity depend on oil and gas prices, which can fall sharply and reduce investment plans 1.

  • Debt after acquisitionsmedium

    Recent acquisitions are funded from credit and cash, and if cash flow falls, debt reduction could be delayed 3.

  • Geographic concentrationmedium

    Almost all reserves sit in the Delaware Basin, so local infrastructure or regulatory problems could affect the whole company 1.

  • Regulation and environmentmedium

    Rules on hydraulic fracturing, emissions and climate change could impose extra costs or operating limits 1.

  • Acquisition executionlow

    Integrating the Paloma and Ridge Runner acquisitions depends on regulatory approvals and timely closing, and transaction costs could be high 23.

Investment thesis

What would need to be true (bull case)

  • If record production and Delaware Basin acquisitions translate into lower costs per lateral foot, margins could widen significantly in 2027 3.
  • Debt reduction from free cash flow could leave room for larger dividends and share buybacks 13.
  • The Hugh Brinson pipeline could lift gas revenues if Gulf Coast prices stay better than Waha prices 3.

What would break the thesis

  • If oil prices stay weak for a long time, cash flow could be insufficient to cover investment and recent debt 1.
  • Rapid integration of several acquisitions could overstretch operating teams and reduce expected returns 23.
  • Environmental rules and public pressure on the industry could limit drilling or raise long-term costs 1.

What to watch

  • Closing of the Paloma and Ridge Runner acquisitions and their effect on drilling inventoryQ4 2026
  • Start-up of the Hugh Brinson pipeline and realized gas pricesQ3 2026
  • Free cash flow trend and debt reduction against the leverage target2027
  • Results of the first Woodford wells and reserve recovery estimatesnext 10-K

Products, market & competition

AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 07 Aug 2026; since then the company filed 8-K (03 Nov 2026 · results).

The business

Matador Resources Company is an independent Texas company founded in 2003 that explores, develops, produces and acquires oil and natural gas in the United States, with an emphasis on shale and other unconventional plays 1. Its main activity is in the oil and liquids-rich portion of the Wolfcamp and Bone Spring plays in the Delaware Basin in Southeast New Mexico and West Texas, with additional operations in the Haynesville and Cotton Valley plays in Northwest Louisiana 1. The company also runs midstream operations through San Mateo, which it owns 51%, providing gas processing, oil transport and produced water services 1.

Production and reserves grew in 2025: oil output rose 20% to 43.7 million barrels, and total proved reserves reached 667.0 million BOE at December 31, 2025 1. In the first half of 2026 the company reported record oil production in the second quarter and announced Delaware Basin acquisitions, some of which are expected to close in the fourth quarter of 2026 3. The capital structure improved, and the company kept paying quarterly dividends 13.

The company focuses its capital budget on Delaware Basin development, with an estimated 2026 drilling, completing and equipping budget of $1.48 to $1.56 billion, raised in an August 2026 update 3. For midstream, the estimated 2026 capital expenditures are $145 to $165 million 3.

Segments

Exploration and production

The main segment covers the Delaware Basin, where Matador holds about 354,600 gross acres, and nearly all proved reserves relate to this area 1. Northwest Louisiana activity is smaller, and the Eagle Ford operations in South Texas were sold in the first quarter of 2025 1.

Midstream (San Mateo)

The San Mateo subsidiary, owned 51% by Matador and 49% by partner Five Point, has 720 MMcf per day of cryogenic gas processing capacity and serves both Matador production and third-party customers 1. The Cardinal Midstream acquisition, closed in July 2026, added a processing plant and gathering systems in West Texas 3.

Marketing and transport

Matador secured firm gas transportation on the Hugh Brinson pipeline, which is set to move production out of the Permian Basin to the Gulf Coast, where prices have historically been higher than at Waha 13.

Market context

Revenues depend directly on oil and gas prices, which are volatile and influenced by demand, OPEC+ and geopolitical conflicts 1. In 2025 the average WTI oil price was $64.73 per barrel, compared with $75.76 in 2024, and Henry Hub gas averaged $3.62 per MMBtu 1. The Delaware Basin market is dominated by large independent producers and integrated companies, and access to transport and processing infrastructure shapes realized prices 1.

Trends

  • Delaware Basin acquisitionstailwind

    Matador has announced several acquisitions of undeveloped acreage and drilling locations in the Delaware Basin, including a federal lease sale and agreements for Paloma and Ridge Runner, which could add drilling inventory for several years 3.

  • Natural gas recoverytailwind

    The Hugh Brinson pipeline could reduce exposure to weak Waha prices and could raise gas revenues by about $90 million a year for each $0.50 per MMBtu increase in realized price 3.

  • Crude price volatilityheadwind

    Oil prices fell from $80.04 to $55.27 per barrel during 2025, which could reduce cash flow and borrowing capacity if the trend persists 1.

  • Cost inflation and regulationmixed

    Service and equipment costs have risen in recent years, and new rules on emissions and hydraulic fracturing could add compliance costs 1.

Competitive position

Matador competes with other independent producers in the Delaware Basin and with integrated companies, some with superior technology and data, which could affect drilling costs and access to good locations 1. Competition is also intense in midstream, where third parties can offer alternative processing and transport 1.

Matador's advantages include its scale in the Delaware Basin and integration with San Mateo, which gives it control over gas flow to customers 13. If other operators rapidly expand processing capacity, that flow advantage could shrink.

  • Diamondback EnergyFANG

    Independent oil producer in the Permian Basin with a comparable position in Delaware.

  • Permian ResourcesPR

    Independent company with significant Delaware Basin assets, competing directly for acreage and drilling locations.

  • Occidental PetroleumOXY

    Integrated company with large Permian operations that can influence service prices and infrastructure access.

  • ChevronCVX

    Integrated company producing in the Permian Basin, with access to capital and refining that gives it a different position.

News & filings

In the press

The latest news item in our archive is from 15 Oct 2026; the newest SEC filing is from 03 Nov 2026. The press archive comes from the RSS feeds we follow and does not necessarily cover the latest event — the filings alongside do.

SEC filings

  • Current report03 Nov 2026
    Results of operations · Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
  • Current report21 Oct 2026
    Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
  • Current report05 Oct 2026
    Acquisition or disposition of assets · Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
  • Current report10 Sept 2026
    Departure or appointment of officers · Financial statements and exhibits
  • Quarterly report07 Aug 2026
  • Current report05 Aug 2026
    Results of operations · Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
  • Current report24 Jul 2026
    Material agreement · Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
  • Current report22 Jul 2026
    Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
  • Current report16 Jun 2026
    Material agreement · Creation of a direct financial obligation · Shareholder vote · Financial statements and exhibits
  • Quarterly report08 May 2026

Sources

  1. [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · SEC / Matador Resources Company · 26 Feb 2026
  2. [2] Form 10-Q, quarter ended 2026-06-30 · SEC / Matador Resources Company · 07 Aug 2026
  3. [3] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / Matador Resources Company · 05 Aug 2026

Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.