olivLaw · US equity research
Murphy Oil Corporation MUR
Crude Petroleum & Natural Gas · SIC 1311 · Vertical: Crude Petroleum & Natural Gas (SIC 1311)
Murphy Oil is an independent exploration and production company with onshore assets in Texas and Canada and offshore operations in the Gulf of America, Vietnam and Côte d'Ivoire. Production reached 188682 BOEPD in 2025, and in the second quarter of 2026 the company reported 175013 BOEPD, down from a year earlier, while raising its 2026 capital budget.
The AI analysis may be outdated: new filings came after its sources (see the «AI analysis» section).
At the close of 04 Nov 2026, Murphy Oil Corporation (MUR) stock was 35.94 USD (−8.92% on the day), with market capitalisation 5.2 bn USD, P/E 11.2 on diluted EPS of 3.21 USD over the last 12 months, dividend yield 3.83%, beta 0.71, 52-week range 26.57–44.34 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q3 2026): revenue of 855.0 m USD (+16.6% YoY), net income of 171.1 m USD, diluted EPS 1.17 USD.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
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Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 34.6
- weak (30–45)
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 36.66 – 45.80
- below the lower band · %B -0.08 · band width 22.2%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 38.82 / 36.95
- mixed trend
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- 0.44 / 1.16
- MACD below signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | S&P 500 | vs S&P 500 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | −6.4% | −1.1% | −5.3 pp | — |
| 3 months | −0.3% | −0.5% | +0.2 pp | — |
| 6 months | −7.7% | +4.4% | −12.1 pp | — |
| Year to date | +15.0% | +12.3% | +2.7 pp | — |
| 1 year | +34.1% | +13.5% | +20.6 pp | +16.2% |
| 3 years | −21.7% | +76.4% | −98.1 pp | +3.6% |
| 5 years | +24.9% | +63.7% | −38.8 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
Latest quarter: Q3 2026 · 30 Sept 2026
Quarterly margins
Quarterly statements · USD
| Fiscal year | Q4 '24 | Q1 '25 | Q2 '25 | Q3 '25 | Q4 '25 | Q1 '26 | Q2 '26 | Q3 '26 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 669.6 m | 665.7 m | 695.6 m | 733.0 m | 613.1 m | 733.6 m | 928.3 m | 855.0 m |
| Cost of revenue | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | — |
| SG&A | 31.2 m | 30.9 m | 36.9 m | 30.9 m | 38.6 m | 34.9 m | 38.7 m | 40.5 m |
| Operating income | 85.2 m | 143.9 m | 92.2 m | 5.8 m | 59.3 m | 138.3 m | 354.7 m | 256.5 m |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 215.4 m | 194.2 m | 259.3 m | 283.5 m | 240.8 m | 254.4 m | 262.1 m | 271.4 m |
| Interest expense | 43.7 m | 23.5 m | 25.1 m | 24.7 m | 22.8 m | 29.0 m | 24.9 m | 24.2 m |
| Pre-tax income | 78.6 m | 122.8 m | 34.9 m | -3.7 m | 28.9 m | 119.1 m | 341.0 m | 235.1 m |
| Income tax | 13.4 m | 32.7 m | 1.0 m | 4.2 m | 6.6 m | 49.9 m | 77.0 m | 39.4 m |
| Net income | 50.3 m | 73.0 m | 22.3 m | -3.0 m | 11.9 m | 53.0 m | 232.2 m | 171.1 m |
| Diluted EPS | 0.34 | 0.50 | 0.16 | -0.02 | 0.08 | 0.37 | 1.59 | 1.17 |
| Dividends paid | 43.8 m | 47.0 m | 46.4 m ≈ | 46.4 m ≈ | 46.4 m | 50.2 m | 50.2 m ≈ | 50.2 m ≈ |
| Share repurchases | 1.2 m | 100.1 m | 2.5 m ≈ | 0 ≈ | 0 | 777.0 k | 0 ≈ | 0 ≈ |
≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Today's P/E sits at the 56 percentile of its own 27-quarter history (min 1.5, median 10.9, max 370.4; quarters with earnings only).
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 1.8 bn | 2.8 bn | 2.0 bn | 2.3 bn | 3.9 bn | 3.5 bn | 3.0 bn | 2.7 bn |
| Revenue YoY | +24.1% | +57.9% | −30.5% | +16.9% | +71.0% | −12.0% | −12.5% | −10.2% |
| Net income | 411.1 m | 1.1 bn | -1.1 bn | -73.7 m | 965.0 m | 661.6 m | 407.2 m | 104.2 m |
| Net income YoY | unavailable | +179.7% | −199.9% | unavailable | unavailable | −31.4% | −38.5% | −74.4% |
| Diluted EPS | 2.36 | 6.98 | -7.48 | -0.48 | 6.13 | 4.22 | 2.70 | 0.72 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | unavailable | +195.8% | −207.2% | unavailable | unavailable | −31.2% | −36.0% | −73.3% |
| net % | 22.9% | 40.6% | -58.4% | -3.2% | 24.5% | 19.1% | 13.4% | 3.8% |
| Free cash flow | -261.9 m | 144.8 m | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable |
Reported results vs expectations
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Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025
- Cash
- 377.2 m USD
- Financial debt
- 1.3 bn USD
- Net debt
- 897.7 m USD
- Equity
- 5.2 bn USD
- Total assets
- 9.8 bn USD
- Debt / equity
- 0.24x
- Current ratio
- 0.77x
- ROE
- 2.0%
- ROA
- 1.1%
- FCF margin
- unavailable
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (USD)
Margins
Income statement · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 2.0 bn | 2.3 bn | 3.9 bn | 3.5 bn | 3.0 bn | 2.7 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Cost of revenue | 0 | 0 | 172.0 m | 51.7 m | 3.1 m | 0 | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Gross profit | 2.0 bn ≈ | 2.3 bn ≈ | 3.8 bn ≈ | 3.4 bn ≈ | 3.0 bn ≈ | 2.7 bn ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026derived |
| SG&A | 140.2 m | 122.0 m | 131.1 m | 117.3 m | 110.1 m | 137.3 m | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Operating income | -1.4 bn | 281.4 m | 1.6 bn | 1.0 bn | 602.6 m | 301.2 m | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 987.2 m | 795.1 m | 776.8 m | 861.6 m | 865.8 m | 977.8 m | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| EBITDA | -375.1 m ≈ | 1.1 bn ≈ | 2.4 bn ≈ | 1.9 bn ≈ | 1.5 bn ≈ | 1.3 bn ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026derived |
| Interest expense | 169.4 m | 221.8 m | 150.8 m | 112.4 m | 105.9 m | 96.1 m | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Pre-tax income | -1.5 bn | 42.9 m | 1.5 bn | 921.1 m | 567.6 m | 182.9 m | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Income tax | -293.7 m | -5.9 m | 309.5 m | 195.9 m | 78.3 m | 44.6 m | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Net income | -1.1 bn | -73.7 m | 965.0 m | 661.6 m | 407.2 m | 104.2 m | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | -7.48 | -0.48 | 6.13 | 4.22 | 2.70 | 0.72 | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Weighted average diluted shares | 153.5 m | 154.3 m | 157.5 m | 156.6 m | 151.0 m | 144.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Dividend per share | 0.63 | 0.50 | 0.83 | 1.10 | 1.20 | 1.30 | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Revenue − Cost of revenue; Operating income + Depreciation & amortisation.
Balance sheet · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 310.6 m | 521.2 m | 492.0 m | 317.1 m | 423.6 m | 377.2 m | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Receivables | 262.0 m | 258.2 m | 391.2 m | 344.0 m | 272.5 m | 346.8 m | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Inventories | 66.1 m | 54.2 m | 54.5 m | 54.5 m | 54.9 m | 57.3 m | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Current assets | 1.0 bn | 880.9 m | 972.3 m | 752.2 m | 785.3 m | 816.7 m | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | 8.3 bn | 8.1 bn | 8.2 bn | 8.2 bn | 8.1 bn | 8.1 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Total assets | 10.6 bn | 10.3 bn | 10.3 bn | 9.8 bn | 9.7 bn | 9.8 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Accounts payable | 407.1 m | 623.1 m | 543.8 m | 446.9 m | 472.2 m | 572.2 m | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Short-term debt | 0 | 654.0 k | 687.0 k | 723.0 k | 871.0 k | 2.5 m | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Long-term debt | 3.0 bn | 2.5 bn | 1.8 bn | 1.3 bn | 1.3 bn | 1.3 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Current liabilities | 716.3 m | 1.2 bn | 1.3 bn | 846.5 m | 942.8 m | 1.1 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Total liabilities | 6.2 bn | 6.0 bn | 5.2 bn | 4.2 bn | 4.3 bn | 4.6 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Equity | 4.4 bn | 4.3 bn | 5.1 bn | 5.5 bn | 5.3 bn | 5.2 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
Cash flow · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | 802.7 m | 1.4 bn | — | — | — | — | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2022verified |
| Investing cash flow | -859.0 m | -417.7 m | -1.1 bn | -998.7 m | -908.2 m | -1.0 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Financing cash flow | 39.7 m | -794.5 m | -1.1 bn | -923.7 m | -716.5 m | -264.1 m | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Dividends paid | 96.0 m | 77.2 m | 128.2 m | 171.0 m | 180.0 m | 186.2 m | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Share repurchases | 0 | 0 | 0 | 150.0 m | 301.4 m | 102.6 m | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
Risk
Valuation
olivLaw classification
Score: 49 / 100
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 5.2 bn USD
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
- Balance sheet68
- Growth0
- Quality56
- Returns55
- Valuation61
Estimated value range
The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 17.08 – 64.97 USD.
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Method ranges (USD per share)
— — Mid · ▏ Price
Valuation methods
- DCF (discounted cash flow)unavailable · the input exists, but its latest figure is far older than the latest reported period: not used
- Peers: EV/EBITDA40.49 – 64.97 (Mid 56.34)16 companies used · median multiple 5.0x · quartiles 3.7x – 5.6xAPA, AR, CHRD, CRGY, CRK, EOG, EQT, EXE, FANG, MGY, MTDR, OVV, REPX, TALO, VIST, WTI
- Peers: P/E27.51 – 40.15 (Mid 30.03)20 companies used · median multiple 9.4x · quartiles 8.6x – 12.5xAMPY, APA, AR, CHRD, CNX, CRK, DVN, EOG, EQT, EXE, GPRK, INR, MGY, MTDR, OVV, OXY, PR, REPX, TTE, VIST
- Dividend discount (DDM)17.08 – 22.97 (Mid 19.60)
Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 4.3%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 9.3%
- Terminal growth
- 2.5%
Factor scorecard
Neutral profile · Score 49/100
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | 10.8% | 52 (vs peers) | 13% |
| Net margin · Quality | 15.0% | 63 (vs peers) | 8% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | -11.6% | 0 (on a fixed band) | 10% |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | -51.0% | 0 (on a fixed band) | 10% |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | 0.6x | 71 (vs peers) | 13% |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | 8.0x | 100 (on a fixed band) | 8% |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 0.9x | 12 (on a fixed band) | 5% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | 11.2x | 41 (vs peers) | 13% |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | 3.4x | 81 (vs peers) | 13% |
| FCF yield · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | 3.8% | 55 (on a fixed band) | 8% |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet68/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
- Growth0/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
- Quality56/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
- Returns· partial55/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
- Valuation61/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
MURPHY OIL CORPORATION (MUR). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2026-09-30.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 2.7 bn USD in 2025; YoY growth -10.2%; net margin 15.0%; ROE 8.9%; net debt/EBITDA 0.6x.
The estimated value range is 27.51–40.15 USD per share (median of 3 methods, agreement: low); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 30.03 USD, the price of 35.94 USD leaves a potential of -16.4% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of -19.7% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
olivLaw score 49/100, methodological classification: neutral profile (score, margin of safety and method agreement together; not a judgement of the right price). Groups assessed only in part: returns. Not investment advice.
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- Net debt / EBITDA: 0.6x
- Interest coverage: 8.0x
- EV/EBITDA: 3.4x
What contradicts it
- Revenue CAGR 3Y: -11.6%
- EPS CAGR 3Y: -51.0%
- Current ratio: 0.9x
- The valuation methods diverge
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): FCF conversion, FCF yield, Payout ratio (FCF).
Versus the vertical median
Crude Petroleum & Natural Gas (SIC 1311) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 39 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TTETotalEnergies SE | 199.6 bn | 15.7 | 11.3% | 6.5% | −6.2% | +38% / +33% |
| EOGEog Resources, Inc. | 77.1 bn | 11.4 | 22.5% | 25.4% | −4.5% | +36% / +19% |
| OXYOccidental Petroleum Corporation | 57.3 bn | 8.6 | 18.9% | 33.7% | −1.9% | +37% / −3% |
| FANGDiamondback Energy, Inc. | 51.1 bn | 25.0 | 5.3% | 11.0% | +35.8% | +20% / +18% |
| DVNDevon Energy Corp | 48.5 bn | 10.5 | 11.5% | 16.7% | +7.8% | +19% / −2% |
| EQTEqt Corporation | 32.9 bn | 12.5 | 10.9% | 28.4% | +63.9% | −14% / +31% |
| EXEExpand Energy Corporation | 20.2 bn | 7.6 | 14.6% | 19.8% | +186.3% | −28% / +9% |
| PRPermian Resources Corporation | 18.8 bn | 14.9 | 11.5% | 21.5% | +1.3% | +55% / +71% |
| OVVOvintiv Inc. | 16.8 bn | 12.7 | 12.1% | 12.8% | −2.7% | +53% / +41% |
| APAApa Corporation | 15.6 bn | 9.4 | 25.9% | — | unavailable | +78% / +24% |
| ARAntero Resources Corporation | 11.5 bn | 8.4 | 17.6% | 21.7% | +22.0% | +3% / +58% |
| CHRDChord Energy Corporation | 7.2 bn | 8.9 | 10.3% | 13.4% | −7.1% | +41% / −18% |
| MTDRMatador Resources Company | 6.2 bn | 8.6 | 12.8% | 19.9% | +5.5% | +19% / −13% |
| VISTVista Energy, S.A.B. de C.V. | 5.9 bn | 13.4 | 33.3% | 29.0% | +41.0% | +26% / +101% |
| MGYMagnolia Oil & Gas Corp | 5.5 bn | 13.0 | 20.5% | 28.8% | −0.3% | +1% / +9% |
| MURMurphy Oil Corporation | 5.2 bn | 11.2 | 8.9% | 15.0% | −10.2% | +34% / −22% |
| CNXCNX Resources Corporation | 5.1 bn | 5.8 | 20.4% | 35.2% | +76.8% | −7% / +72% |
| CRGYCrescent Energy Company | 5.0 bn | 79.8 | 1.3% | 1.3% | +22.1% | +24% / +3% |
| CRCCalifornia Resources Corp | 4.3 bn | — | -15.5% | -18.1% | +14.7% | +1% / −6% |
| CRKComstock Resources, Inc. | 3.9 bn | 7.6 | 21.1% | 23.3% | +77.0% | −50% / +36% |
| TALOTalos Energy Inc. | 2.6 bn | — | -18.1% | -18.4% | −9.8% | +36% / +12% |
| KOSKosmos Energy Ltd. | 1.3 bn | — | -58.8% | -27.4% | −23.1% | +101% / −67% |
| REPXRiley Exploration Permian, Inc. | 948.6 m | 9.2 | 16.8% | 17.3% | −4.4% | +57% / +74% |
| AESIAtlas Energy Solutions Inc. | 843.0 m | — | -12.1% | -13.0% | +3.7% | −22% / −61% |
| VTSVitesse Energy, Inc. | 618.1 m | — | -7.6% | -15.4% | +13.2% | −31% / −38% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for MUR from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (USD)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | 19.55 Total return -43% · Per year -43% | 34.73 Total return 0% · Per year 0% | 52.55 Total return 51% · Per year 51% |
| 3 years | 15.52 Total return -49% · Per year -20% | 31.34 Total return -2% · Per year -1% | 52.55 Total return 60% · Per year 17% |
| 5 years | 12.32 Total return -55% · Per year -15% | 28.29 Total return -5% · Per year -1% | 52.55 Total return 69% · Per year 11% |
- Exit P/E± 7.84
- Net margin± 5.49
- Annual revenue growth± 4.95
- Annual dilution± 0.46
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 05 Aug 2026; since then the company filed 8-K (04 Nov 2026 · results), 10-Q (04 Nov 2026).
In brief
Murphy Oil is an independent exploration and production company with onshore assets in Texas and Canada and offshore operations in the Gulf of America, Vietnam and Côte d'Ivoire. Production reached 188682 BOEPD in 2025, and in the second quarter of 2026 the company reported 175013 BOEPD, down from a year earlier, while raising its 2026 capital budget.
SWOT
Strengths
- The company has a diversified portfolio of onshore and offshore assets and a balance sheet with solid liquidity and long-term fixed-rate debt.
- Strong well performance in the Eagle Ford Shale and Tupper Montney supported production and revenue in 2026.
- Gulf of America and Vietnam developments give the portfolio projects with long-term growth potential.
Weaknesses
- Production fell in the second quarter of 2026 because of Gulf of America downtime, showing dependence on a few large fields.
- Exploration produced several dry holes in 2026, raising costs and weighing on results.
- A significant share of reserves is undeveloped, and converting them requires substantial capital spending.
Opportunities
- Recent discoveries in the Gulf of America and Côte d'Ivoire could widen the resource base if appraisal confirms commercial potential.
- If Lac Da Vang reaches first oil in the fourth quarter of 2026, the company could add meaningful volumes in a new region.
- Higher oil prices could improve cash flow and support additional development programmes.
Threats
- Lower oil and gas prices could reduce revenue, economic reserves and financing capacity.
- Geopolitical conflict and instability in producing regions can change prices and market access.
- Political pressure and the shift toward lower-carbon energy could limit long-term hydrocarbon investment.
Risks
- Price volatilityhigh
Oil and gas prices are shaped by factors largely beyond the company's control, and prolonged declines could affect results, cash flow and asset valuations.
- Exploration resultshigh
Dry holes can significantly affect results, and success in Côte d'Ivoire and Vietnam is not assured.
- Reserve replacementmedium
If the company fails to replace reserves depleted by production, its ability to sustain long-term growth could be limited.
- Reliance on third partiesmedium
Access to infrastructure and equipment owned by others can delay projects, and at some fields the company does not control operations.
- Currency risklow
Canadian operations expose the company to currency swings that can affect results through other income and expense.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- If Tupper Montney and Eagle Ford output stays solid and Lac Da Vang reaches first oil on the announced timetable, the company could combine organic growth with new Vietnam volumes.
- A balance sheet with high liquidity and long-term fixed-rate debt could give flexibility to fund development without immediate refinancing pressure.
- Recent Gulf of America discoveries could widen the project pipeline if appraisal confirms commercial reserves.
What would break the thesis
- If oil prices fall or offshore outages recur, revenue and cash flow could be significantly affected.
- High exploration spending and dry holes in recent programmes could continue to weigh on profitability.
- If the energy transition accelerates, long-term demand for the company's oil and gas could decline.
What to watch
- First oil at the Lac Da Vang project in VietnamQ4 2026
- Results of the Chinook #8 well in the Gulf of AmericaQ4 2026
- Production and capital spending against 2026 guidanceQ3 2026
- Exploration results in Côte d'Ivoire and Vietnamnext 10-K
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 05 Aug 2026; since then the company filed 8-K (04 Nov 2026 · results), 10-Q (04 Nov 2026).
The business
Murphy Oil Corporation explores for and produces crude oil, natural gas and natural gas liquids, mainly in the United States and Canada, and explores in targeted areas worldwide. The company is headquartered in Houston, Texas, and was separated in 2013 from its U.S. refining and marketing business 1. Its 2025 production came from the Gulf of America, the Eagle Ford Shale in South Texas and Canadian operations 1.
Segments
United States
U.S. activity centres on Gulf of America fields and the Eagle Ford Shale in South Texas. In 2025 the company produced 93289 BBL of liquids per day in the U.S., representing 90% of worldwide liquids 1.
Market context
Trends
- Crude oil pricesmixed
Oil price movements directly affect cash flow. Higher prices, as seen in the second half of 2026, could support revenue, while declines could reduce capital programmes 12.
- Vietnam developmenttailwind
Completing pipelines and launching the FSO at Lac Da Vang brings the project closer to first production, which could diversify output if the timetable holds 3.
- Exploration costsheadwind
Dry holes in Côte d'Ivoire and the Hai Su Vang programme raised exploration expenses in the first half of 2026, and the company expects elevated costs in the second half 23.
- Offshore production declineheadwind
Planned and unplanned downtime in the Gulf of America reduced offshore output, and the company relies on new wells to offset these declines 2.
Competitive position
The company competes with major integrated oil companies, independent producers and state-owned foreign oil companies, many of which have substantially greater resources 1. Competition also covers acreage, exploration licences, drilling equipment and skilled staff 1.
- Major integrated oil companies
Companies with substantially greater resources that compete for acreage and exploration licences 1.
- Independent oil and gas producers
Producers of varying size that compete for the same assets and equipment 1.
- State-owned foreign oil companies
Operators with access to resources and government policies that can advantage them in international markets 1.
- Alternative energy providers
Nuclear, hydro, wind and solar compete indirectly for energy demand 1.
Links, dependencies and risks
Who the company is tied to, from its own SEC filings (customers, suppliers, production, partners, competitors, countries, regulation), from the 5 %+ holders' statements (13D/13G) and from what other companies say about it. Click a node for its evidence; on a listed company the graph moves to it.
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News & filings
In the press
- Distributed EEG phase-resetting dynamics predict depressive symptom severity in untreated adultsNature Mental Health · 05 Nov 2026 · EN
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- Alegerile americane pun Bucureștiul în fața unei recalibrări diplomatice. Ce strategie trebuie să... - Ziare.comSurge — Google News · 04 Nov 2026 · RO
- GOP's redistricting firewall pummeled by blue waveAxios · 04 Nov 2026 · EN
- Alegeri intermediare în SUA: Democrații câștigă în cursele cheie. - Vietnam.vnSurge — Google News · 04 Nov 2026 · RO
- LIVE TEXT | Midterms 2026. Rezultatele alegerilor din SUA. Democrații vor câștiga Congresul. Victorii în Senat și în districte din state-cheie - PRO TV ChisinauSurge — Google News · 04 Nov 2026 · RO
- Alegeri importante în America. Inflația și costul vieții, printre principalele nemulțumiri ale alegătorilor - TargovisteNEWSSurge — Google News · 04 Nov 2026 · RO
- Alegerile de la jumătatea mandatului din SUA: Democrații continuă să câștige, cursa este departe de a se fi încheiat. - Vietnam.vnSurge — Google News · 04 Nov 2026 · RO
- Update : Sen . Chris Murphy improving ; what to know about his conditionSurge — GDELT DOC · 04 Nov 2026 · RO
- Jon Ossoff wins reelection in Georgia, easily defeating Republican Mike CollinsNPR News · 04 Nov 2026 · EN
- Sen. Chris Murphy still hospitalized after suffering a stroke over the weekendCNBC World · 03 Nov 2026 · EN
- New Jersey live results: 2026 Senate electionThe Hill · 03 Nov 2026 · EN
- Four types of House races to watch on election night to know how it might goNPR News · 03 Nov 2026 · EN
- Democratic rep . endorses Republican as El - Sayed downplays parental rights concerns : Education is on the ballotSurge — GDELT DOC · 03 Nov 2026 · RO
- Judge denies bond for man accused of killing grandmotherSurge — GDELT DOC · 03 Nov 2026 · RO
- Russell Dickerson Reveals Upcoming Appearance On Nashville - Based Action - Drama : SO STOKEDSurge — GDELT DOC · 03 Nov 2026 · RO
- Marvell cheltuiește 115 miliarde de dolari pentru a achiziționa Lumentum, pariind pe valul inteligenței artificiale. - Vietnam.vnSurge — Google News · 03 Nov 2026 · RO
- Marvell acceptă să achiziționeze Lumentum într-o tranzacție cu plata integrală în acțiuni, vizând conectivitatea pentru IA - Unite.AISurge — Google News · 03 Nov 2026 · RO
- Digest de seară: pierderile Anthropic se adâncesc, Marvell cumpără Lumentum - InvezzSurge — Google News · 02 Nov 2026 · RO
- Marvell Technology pregătește una dintre cele mai mari achiziții din 2026. Tranzacția ajunge la 115 miliarde de dolari - Capital.roCapital.ro · 02 Nov 2026 · RO
SEC filings
- Quarterly report04 Nov 2026
- Current report04 Nov 2026Results of operations · Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report13 Oct 2026Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report08 Sept 2026Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report24 Aug 2026Other events · Financial statements and exhibits
- Quarterly report05 Aug 2026
- Current report05 Aug 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report11 Jun 2026Departure or appointment of officers
- Current report14 May 2026Shareholder vote · Financial statements and exhibits
- Quarterly report06 May 2026
Sources
- [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · SEC / Murphy Oil Corporation · 25 Feb 2026
- [2] Form 10-Q, quarter ended 2026-06-30 · SEC / Murphy Oil Corporation · 05 Aug 2026
- [3] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / Murphy Oil Corporation · 05 Aug 2026
Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.