olivLaw · US equity research
California Resources Corporation CRC
Crude Petroleum & Natural Gas · SIC 1311 · Vertical: Crude Petroleum & Natural Gas (SIC 1311)
California Resources Corporation is an independent oil and gas producer concentrated in California, extending into carbon capture and storage through Carbon TerraVault. Total operating revenues reached 3669 million USD in 2025 after the Berry merger, a period in which integration and regulatory risks define the company's agenda.
The AI analysis may be outdated: new filings came after its sources (see the «AI analysis» section).
At the close of 04 Nov 2026, California Resources Corporation (CRC) stock was 48.34 USD (−5.92% on the day), with market capitalisation 4.3 bn USD, dividend yield 3.35%, beta 0.84, 52-week range 43.55–70.13 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q3 2026): revenue of 421.0 m USD (−50.8% YoY), net income of -315.0 m USD (−592.2% YoY), diluted EPS -3.55 USD.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
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Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 30.5
- weak (30–45)
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 50.53 – 56.56
- below the lower band · %B -0.36 · band width 11.3%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 53.51 / 57.17
- downtrend (price < SMA50 < SMA200)
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- -0.39 / 0.09
- MACD below signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | S&P 500 | vs S&P 500 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | −8.8% | −1.1% | −7.7 pp | — |
| 3 months | −5.9% | −0.5% | −5.4 pp | — |
| 6 months | −21.3% | +4.4% | −25.7 pp | — |
| Year to date | +8.1% | +12.3% | −4.2 pp | — |
| 1 year | +3.6% | +13.5% | −9.9 pp | +16.2% |
| 3 years | −6.8% | +76.4% | −83.2 pp | +3.6% |
| 5 years | +5.5% | +63.7% | −58.2 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
Latest quarter: Q3 2026 · 30 Sept 2026
Quarterly margins
Quarterly statements · USD
| Fiscal year | Q4 '24 | Q1 '25 | Q2 '25 | Q3 '25 | Q4 '25 | Q1 '26 | Q2 '26 | Q3 '26 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 877.0 m | 912.0 m | 978.0 m | 855.0 m | 924.0 m | 119.0 m | 1.3 bn | 421.0 m |
| SG&A | 95.0 m | 72.0 m | 79.0 m | 87.0 m | 95.0 m | 106.0 m | 97.0 m | 89.0 m |
| Operating income | 68.0 m | 186.0 m | 267.0 m | 98.0 m | 47.0 m | -711.0 m | 511.0 m | -407.0 m |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 142.0 m | 131.0 m | 128.0 m | 123.0 m | 129.0 m | 133.0 m | 131.0 m | 137.0 m |
| Interest expense | 28.0 m | 27.0 m | 25.0 m | 25.0 m | 29.0 m | 29.0 m | 28.0 m | 26.0 m |
| Pre-tax income | 41.0 m | 162.0 m | 242.0 m | 75.0 m | 23.0 m | -760.0 m | 458.0 m | -428.0 m |
| Income tax | 8.0 m | 47.0 m | 70.0 m | 11.0 m | 11.0 m | -49.0 m | -56.0 m | -113.0 m |
| Net income | 33.0 m | 115.0 m | 172.0 m | 64.0 m | 12.0 m | -711.0 m | 514.0 m | -315.0 m |
| Diluted EPS | 0.36 ≈ | 1.26 | 1.92 | 0.76 | 0.14 ≈ | -8.02 | 5.76 | -3.55 |
| Operating cash flow | 206.0 m | 186.0 m | 165.0 m | 279.0 m | 235.0 m | 99.0 m | 263.0 m | 305.0 m |
| Capex | 88.0 m | 55.0 m | 56.0 m | 91.0 m | 120.0 m | 131.0 m | 149.0 m | 158.0 m |
| Dividends paid | 36.0 m | 35.0 m | 35.0 m | 32.0 m | 34.0 m | 36.0 m | 36.0 m | 36.0 m |
| Share repurchases | 57.0 m | 101.0 m | 217.0 m | 34.0 m | 25.0 m | 10.0 m | 0 | 30.0 m |
≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 2.0 bn | 3.1 bn | 2.6 bn | 1.9 bn | 2.7 bn | 2.8 bn | 3.2 bn | 3.7 bn |
| Revenue YoY | +29.7% | +52.7% | −14.0% | unavailable | +43.3% | +3.5% | +14.2% | +14.7% |
| Net income | -266.0 m | 328.0 m | -28.0 m | 612.0 m | 524.0 m | 564.0 m | 376.0 m | 363.0 m |
| Net income YoY | −195.3% | unavailable | −108.5% | unavailable | −14.4% | +7.6% | −33.3% | −3.5% |
| Diluted EPS | -6.26 | 6.77 | -0.57 | 7.37 | 6.75 | 7.78 | 4.62 | 4.15 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | −192.6% | unavailable | −108.4% | unavailable | −8.4% | +15.3% | −40.6% | −10.2% |
| net % | -13.3% | 10.7% | -1.1% | 32.4% | 19.4% | 20.1% | 11.8% | 9.9% |
| Free cash flow | -123.0 m | -229.0 m | 221.0 m | 466.0 m | 311.0 m | 468.0 m | 355.0 m | 543.0 m |
Reported results vs expectations
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Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025
- Cash
- 132.0 m USD
- Financial debt
- 1.3 bn USD
- Net debt
- 1.2 bn USD
- Equity
- 3.7 bn USD
- Total assets
- 7.4 bn USD
- Debt / equity
- 0.35x
- Current ratio
- 0.89x
- ROE
- 10.1%
- ROA
- 5.0%
- FCF margin
- 14.8%
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (USD)
Margins
Income statement · USD
| Line | 2019 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 2.6 bn | 1.9 bn | 2.7 bn | 2.8 bn | 3.2 bn | 3.7 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 02 Mar 2026verified |
| Cost of revenue | 2.2 bn | — | — | — | — | — | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2020verified |
| Gross profit | 429.0 m ≈ | — | — | — | — | — | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2020derived |
| SG&A | 290.0 m | 200.0 m | 222.0 m | 267.0 m | 321.0 m | 333.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 02 Mar 2026verified |
| Operating income | 429.0 m | 293.0 m | 812.0 m | 808.0 m | 620.0 m | 598.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 02 Mar 2026verified |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 471.0 m | 213.0 m | 198.0 m | 225.0 m | 388.0 m | 511.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 02 Mar 2026verified |
| EBITDA | 900.0 m ≈ | 506.0 m ≈ | 1.0 bn ≈ | 1.0 bn ≈ | 1.0 bn ≈ | 1.1 bn ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 02 Mar 2026derived |
| Interest expense | 383.0 m | — | — | 56.0 m | 87.0 m | 106.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 02 Mar 2026verified |
| Pre-tax income | 100.0 m | 229.0 m | 761.0 m | 748.0 m | 516.0 m | 502.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 02 Mar 2026verified |
| Income tax | 1.0 m | -396.0 m | 237.0 m | 184.0 m | 140.0 m | 139.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 02 Mar 2026verified |
| Net income | -28.0 m | 612.0 m | 524.0 m | 564.0 m | 376.0 m | 363.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 02 Mar 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | -0.57 | 7.37 | 6.75 | 7.78 | 4.62 | 4.15 | SEC (XBRL)· 02 Mar 2026verified |
| Weighted average diluted shares | 49.0 m | 83.0 m | 77.6 m | 72.5 m | 81.4 m | 87.4 m | SEC (XBRL)· 02 Mar 2026verified |
| Dividend per share | — | 0.17 | 0.79 | 1.16 | 1.40 | 1.57 | SEC (XBRL)· 02 Mar 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Revenue − Cost of revenue; Operating income + Depreciation & amortisation.
Balance sheet · USD
| Line | 2019 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 17.0 m | 305.0 m | 307.0 m | 496.0 m | 372.0 m | 132.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 02 Mar 2026verified |
| Receivables | 277.0 m | 245.0 m | 326.0 m | 216.0 m | 330.0 m | 333.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 02 Mar 2026verified |
| Inventories | 67.0 m | 60.0 m | 60.0 m | 72.0 m | 90.0 m | 106.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 02 Mar 2026verified |
| Current assets | 491.0 m | 753.0 m | 864.0 m | 929.0 m | 1.0 bn | 938.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 02 Mar 2026verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | 6.4 bn | — | — | — | — | — | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2020verified |
| Total assets | 7.0 bn | 3.8 bn | 4.0 bn | 4.0 bn | 7.1 bn | 7.4 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 02 Mar 2026verified |
| Accounts payable | 296.0 m | 266.0 m | 345.0 m | 245.0 m | 369.0 m | 452.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 02 Mar 2026verified |
| Short-term debt | 100.0 m | — | — | — | 0 | — | SEC (XBRL)· 07 May 2025verified |
| Long-term debt | 4.9 bn | 589.0 m | 592.0 m | 540.0 m | 1.1 bn | 1.3 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 02 Mar 2026verified |
| Current liabilities | 709.0 m | 854.0 m | 894.0 m | 616.0 m | 980.0 m | 1.1 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 02 Mar 2026verified |
| Equity | -296.0 m | 1.7 bn | 1.9 bn | 2.2 bn | 3.5 bn † | 3.7 bn † | SEC (XBRL)· 02 Mar 2026verified |
† equity attributable to the parent's shareholders: in these years the issuer no longer reports the total including non-controlling interests.
Cash flow · USD
| Line | 2019 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | 676.0 m | 660.0 m | 690.0 m | 653.0 m | 610.0 m | 865.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 02 Mar 2026verified |
| Capex | 455.0 m | 194.0 m | 379.0 m | 185.0 m | 255.0 m | 322.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 02 Mar 2026verified |
| Free cash flow | 221.0 m ≈ | 466.0 m ≈ | 311.0 m ≈ | 468.0 m ≈ | 355.0 m ≈ | 543.0 m ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 02 Mar 2026derived |
| Investing cash flow | -394.0 m | -161.0 m | -317.0 m | -175.0 m | -1.1 bn | -725.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 02 Mar 2026verified |
| Financing cash flow | -282.0 m | -222.0 m | -371.0 m | -289.0 m | 343.0 m | -380.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 02 Mar 2026verified |
| Dividends paid | 0 | 14.0 m | 59.0 m | 81.0 m | 113.0 m | 136.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 02 Mar 2026verified |
| Share repurchases | 0 | 148.0 m | 313.0 m | 143.0 m | 192.0 m | 377.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 02 Mar 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating cash flow − Capex.
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
Risk
Valuation
olivLaw classification
Score: 43 / 100
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 4.3 bn USD
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
- Balance sheet0
- Growth44
- Quality15
- Returns82
- Valuation100
Estimated value range
The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 20.60 – 125.49 USD.
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Method ranges (USD per share)
— — Mid · ▏ Price
Valuation methods
- DCF (discounted cash flow)70.78 – 125.49 (Mid 91.12)WACC 8.3% · starting FCFF 438.1 m USD · terminal value share of EV 77%The WACC × g sensitivity gives the method's bounds; these are not probabilities.Reverse DCF: starting growth implied by the price (fading linearly to terminal growth, everything else fixed): -11.4%
- Peers: EV/EBITDAunavailable · the base of the ratio is not positive
- Peers: P/Eunavailable · the base of the ratio is not positive
- Dividend discount (DDM)20.60 – 27.70 (Mid 23.63)
Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 4.3%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 9.3%
- Terminal growth
- 2.5%
Factor scorecard
Neutral profile · Score 43/100
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | -11.0% | 14 (vs peers) | 17% |
| Net margin · Quality | -18.1% | 18 (vs peers) | 10% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | 10.7% | 89 (on a fixed band) | 13% |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | -15.0% | 0 (on a fixed band) | 13% |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | -5.0x | 0 (on a fixed band) | 10% |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 0.5x | 0 (on a fixed band) | 7% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| FCF yield · Valuation | 8.1% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 13% |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | 4.9% | 69 (on a fixed band) | 10% |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | 41.3% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 7% |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet0/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
- Growth44/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
- Quality15/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
- Returns82/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
- Valuation· partial100/100 · 1/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
California Resources Corp (CRC). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2026-09-30.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 3.7 bn USD in 2025; YoY growth 14.7%; net margin -18.1%; ROE -15.5%.
The estimated value range is 45.69–76.60 USD per share (median of 2 methods, agreement: low); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 57.37 USD, the price of 48.34 USD leaves a potential of 18.7% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of 15.7% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
olivLaw score 43/100, methodological classification: neutral profile (score, margin of safety and method agreement together; not a judgement of the right price). Groups assessed only in part: valuation. Not investment advice.
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- Revenue CAGR 3Y: 10.7%
- FCF yield: 8.1%
- Payout ratio (FCF): 41.3%
What contradicts it
- ROIC: -11.0%
- Net margin: -18.1%
- EPS CAGR 3Y: -15.0%
- Interest coverage: -5.0x
- Current ratio: 0.5x
- The valuation methods diverge
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): FCF conversion, Net debt / EBITDA, P/E (TTM), EV/EBITDA.
Versus the vertical median
Crude Petroleum & Natural Gas (SIC 1311) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 39 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TTETotalEnergies SE | 199.6 bn | 15.7 | 11.3% | 6.5% | −6.2% | +38% / +33% |
| EOGEog Resources, Inc. | 77.1 bn | 11.4 | 22.5% | 25.4% | −4.5% | +36% / +19% |
| OXYOccidental Petroleum Corporation | 57.3 bn | 8.6 | 18.9% | 33.7% | −1.9% | +37% / −3% |
| FANGDiamondback Energy, Inc. | 51.1 bn | 25.0 | 5.3% | 11.0% | +35.8% | +20% / +18% |
| DVNDevon Energy Corp | 48.5 bn | 10.5 | 11.5% | 16.7% | +7.8% | +19% / −2% |
| EQTEqt Corporation | 32.9 bn | 12.5 | 10.9% | 28.4% | +63.9% | −14% / +31% |
| EXEExpand Energy Corporation | 20.2 bn | 7.6 | 14.6% | 19.8% | +186.3% | −28% / +9% |
| PRPermian Resources Corporation | 18.8 bn | 14.9 | 11.5% | 21.5% | +1.3% | +55% / +71% |
| OVVOvintiv Inc. | 16.8 bn | 12.7 | 12.1% | 12.8% | −2.7% | +53% / +41% |
| APAApa Corporation | 15.6 bn | 9.4 | 25.9% | — | unavailable | +78% / +24% |
| ARAntero Resources Corporation | 11.5 bn | 8.4 | 17.6% | 21.7% | +22.0% | +3% / +58% |
| CHRDChord Energy Corporation | 7.2 bn | 8.9 | 10.3% | 13.4% | −7.1% | +41% / −18% |
| MTDRMatador Resources Company | 6.2 bn | 8.6 | 12.8% | 19.9% | +5.5% | +19% / −13% |
| VISTVista Energy, S.A.B. de C.V. | 5.9 bn | 13.4 | 33.3% | 29.0% | +41.0% | +26% / +101% |
| MGYMagnolia Oil & Gas Corp | 5.5 bn | 13.0 | 20.5% | 28.8% | −0.3% | +1% / +9% |
| CNXCNX Resources Corporation | 5.1 bn | 5.8 | 20.4% | 35.2% | +76.8% | −7% / +72% |
| CRGYCrescent Energy Company | 5.0 bn | 79.8 | 1.3% | 1.3% | +22.1% | +24% / +3% |
| CRCCalifornia Resources Corp | 4.3 bn | — | -15.5% | -18.1% | +14.7% | +4% / −7% |
| HESMHess Midstream LP | 4.1 bn | 10.9 | — | 23.2% | +8.4% | −6% / −2% |
| CRKComstock Resources, Inc. | 3.9 bn | 7.6 | 21.1% | 23.3% | +77.0% | −50% / +36% |
| TALOTalos Energy Inc. | 2.6 bn | — | -18.1% | -18.4% | −9.8% | +36% / +12% |
| KOSKosmos Energy Ltd. | 1.3 bn | — | -58.8% | -27.4% | −23.1% | +101% / −67% |
| REPXRiley Exploration Permian, Inc. | 948.6 m | 9.2 | 16.8% | 17.3% | −4.4% | +57% / +74% |
| AESIAtlas Energy Solutions Inc. | 843.0 m | — | -12.1% | -13.0% | +3.7% | −22% / −61% |
| VTSVitesse Energy, Inc. | 618.1 m | — | -7.6% | -15.4% | +13.2% | −31% / −38% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for CRC from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (USD)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable |
| 3 years | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable |
| 5 years | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable |
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 10 Aug 2026; since then the company filed 10-Q (03 Nov 2026), 8-K (02 Nov 2026 · results), 8-K (13 Oct 2026 · results).
In brief
California Resources Corporation is an independent oil and gas producer concentrated in California, extending into carbon capture and storage through Carbon TerraVault. Total operating revenues reached 3669 million USD in 2025 after the Berry merger, a period in which integration and regulatory risks define the company's agenda.
SWOT
Strengths
- The company holds a strong position in California oil production and an extended asset portfolio built through recent mergers. Operating cash flow funds the 2026 capital program 1.
- Land holdings and technical expertise are useful for carbon capture and storage projects. The company also has electricity generation capacity through its own plants.
- Commodity price hedging partly reduces exposure to crude price volatility.
Weaknesses
- Concentration of operations in California exposes the company to regional risks, including drought, earthquakes and wildfires.
- Dependence on California refineries and pipelines makes realized prices sensitive to capacity closures.
- Integrating Berry and the Aera fields has created transaction and integration costs and makes results harder to compare.
Opportunities
- Developing Carbon TerraVault could create new revenue if incentives and permits for CCS become available at scale.
- If cap-and-invest rules recognize CCS projects, the company could obtain reductions in its reporting obligations.
- Resource adequacy contracts and electricity sales could raise revenue from the energy segment.
Threats
- Regulatory pressure and local restrictions on operations could delay or prevent the granting of permits.
- A prolonged decline in crude prices could reduce cash flow and investment capacity.
- Disputes over pipeline capacity and force majeure claims could negatively affect realizations and financial results.
Risks
- Price volatilityhigh
Crude, gas and liquids prices are influenced by geopolitical and market factors, and a prolonged decline could reduce cash flow, reserve value and borrowing capacity.
- Geographic concentrationhigh
Activity in California exposes the company to wildfires, earthquakes, drought and state-level regulatory changes, which could lead to shut-in wells or delays.
- Permits and regulationhigh
Authorities can delay or deny permits, restrict hydraulic fracturing or change requirements, which could raise costs and change development plans.
- Market accessmedium
Closures of California refineries and pipelines can reduce marketing options and widen price differentials.
- Merger integrationmedium
Integrating Berry and Aera involves operational and financial risks, and the intended synergies might not materialize within the expected timeframe.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- The company could benefit from high crude prices and an extended asset portfolio, and developing carbon capture could open new revenue sources.
- Operating cash flow funds the capital program, which could reduce reliance on external financing.
- If cap-and-invest rules recognize CCS projects, the company's position in Carbon TerraVault could become a competitive advantage.
What would break the thesis
- A fall in crude prices could quickly reduce cash flow, particularly for a company with high operating costs.
- Dependence on the California market and local refineries could weigh on realized prices if capacity reductions continue.
- CCS development depends on incentives and permits that are not yet settled, and results could come in weaker than expected.
What to watch
- Resolution of pipeline capacity and force majeure disputesQ3 2026
- Adoption of SB 905 quantification rules for CCS reductions2027
- Trend in operating costs after integrating the Aera and Berry fieldsQ1 2027
- Progress of the Carbon TerraVault project and the Brookfield joint venturenext 10-K
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 10 Aug 2026; since then the company filed 10-Q (03 Nov 2026), 8-K (02 Nov 2026 · results), 8-K (13 Oct 2026 · results).
The business
The company describes itself as an 'independent energy and carbon management company' pursuing the energy transition while maintaining local oil and gas production. Operations are concentrated almost entirely in California, where it sells nearly all its crude oil production in local markets. Besides oil and gas, it develops carbon capture and storage projects, including Carbon TerraVault, and produces electricity from its own plants 12.
Sales of oil, natural gas and natural gas liquids were the main component of revenue in 2025, while electricity revenue rose with resource adequacy contracts. The Berry merger, completed on December 18, 2025, added assets and affected comparability with the prior year 1.
The cost structure is dominated by operating costs, which rose in 2025 as the Aera fields were included for a full year, while depreciation and depletion also increased. The company has set its 2026 capital program to be funded from operating cash flow 1.
Segments
Oil and natural gas
The oil and gas segment covers crude oil production in California as well as natural gas and natural gas liquids. Crude sales made up the largest part of revenue in this segment, and realized prices depend on in-state refineries and pipelines 12.
Carbon management
The carbon management segment develops Carbon TerraVault and other CCS projects, including a joint venture with Brookfield. The company frames it as a growth direction, but related development costs are still reported separately and depend on financial and tax incentives 1.
Market context
The reference market is California crude and gas, where prices are influenced by Brent and WTI. In the second quarter of 2026 the Brent price averaged 96.87 USD per barrel, following Middle East tensions and disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, though prices were volatile and fell sharply in late June 2.
The local market is constrained by reduced refining capacity in California and pipeline restrictions, which can affect realized prices. Regulatory pressure and the cap-and-invest framework also shape the conditions in which the company operates 12.
Trends
- Oil price volatilitymixed
Crude prices stayed volatile in 2026 due to conflicts in the Middle East and supply uncertainty, which could support revenue if prices stay high but could reduce cash flow if they fall.
- California refining capacity reductionheadwind
Closures and reduced operations at California refineries could make it harder to market local production and widen price differentials, especially after the shutdown of the San Pablo Bay pipeline.
- Incentives for carbon capturetailwind
Changes to California's cap-and-invest framework include CCS projects as activities that could reduce entities' obligations, which could support Carbon TerraVault if quantification rules are adopted.
- Inflation and financing costsheadwind
High inflation can raise operating and capital costs and lead to higher interest rates, which affects the financing of debt and investments.
Competitive position
The company competes for access to refineries and pipelines, for personnel and oilfield service equipment in California, where the number of specialized vendors is limited. Competition also shows up in access to marketing contracts and transport infrastructure 12.
In carbon management, the company competes with other CCS project developers for incentives, permits and partnerships, in a field where the regulatory framework is still forming 1.
- California oil producers
Producers competing for the same refineries, pipelines and oilfield services in the state, not identified by source.
- Oilfield service providers
California service companies the business relies on for equipment and labor, whose availability can influence costs.
- CCS project developers
Companies pursuing the same financial incentives and permits for carbon capture and storage.
- California refineries and pipeline operators
Actors whose capacity determines market access and realized prices for the company's production.
Links, dependencies and risks
Who the company is tied to, from its own SEC filings (customers, suppliers, production, partners, competitors, countries, regulation), from the 5 %+ holders' statements (13D/13G) and from what other companies say about it. Click a node for its evidence; on a listed company the graph moves to it.
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News & filings
In the press
- California Resources (CRC) Sells Uinta Assets for $90 MillionYahoo Finance — News · 20 Sept 2026 · EN
- Meridian Contrarian Fund Cuts California Resources Corp. (CRC) in Anticipation of DownturnYahoo Finance — News · 04 Sept 2026 · EN
The latest news item in our archive is from 20 Sept 2026; the newest SEC filing is from 03 Nov 2026. The press archive comes from the RSS feeds we follow and does not necessarily cover the latest event — the filings alongside do.
SEC filings
- Quarterly report03 Nov 2026
- Current report02 Nov 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report13 Oct 2026Results of operations
- Quarterly report10 Aug 2026
- Current report10 Aug 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report14 Jul 2026Results of operations
- Current report26 Jun 2026Material agreement · Creation of a direct financial obligation · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report16 Jun 2026Other events · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report16 Jun 2026Results of operations · Other events · Financial statements and exhibits
- Quarterly report06 May 2026
Sources
- [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · SEC / California Resources Corporation · 02 Mar 2026
- [2] Form 10-Q, quarter ended 2026-06-30 · SEC / California Resources Corporation · 10 Aug 2026
Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.