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olivLaw · US equity research

Mach Natural Resources LP MNR

Crude Petroleum & Natural Gas · SIC 1311 · Vertical: Crude Petroleum & Natural Gas (SIC 1311)

10.02USD−3.19% · 1 dayClose 04 Nov 2026

Mach Natural Resources LP is an independent upstream oil and gas company focused on acquiring, developing and producing reserves across the Anadarko, San Juan and Permian Basins, with integrated midstream assets. Production growth in 2026 through acquisitions and a shift of capital toward oil makes recent reporting worth following. The company reported average production of 148.9 MBoe/d in the second quarter of 2026.

At the close of 04 Nov 2026, Mach Natural Resources LP (MNR) stock was 10.02 USD (−3.19% on the day), with market capitalisation 1.7 bn USD, P/E 19.1 on diluted EPS of 0.52 USD over the last 12 months, beta 0.45, 52-week range 10.02–14.91 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q2 2026): revenue of 406.0 m USD (+40.7% YoY), net income of 98.2 m USD (+9.5% YoY), diluted EPS 0.58 USD.

Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.

Market cap
1.7 bn USD
shares as of 31 Jul 2026
P/E (TTM)
19.1
Diluted EPS TTM 0.52 · TTM to 30 Jun 2026
E/P (TTM)
5.23%
TTM to 30 Jun 2026
Dividend yield
unavailable
Beta (2y)
0.45
Volatility (1y) 30%
52-week range
10.0214.91

Price history

Loading chart…

Technical reading

RSI (14)
28.8
oversold (≤ 30)
Bollinger (20, 2)
10.20 – 11.16
below the lower band · %B -0.19 · band width 9.0%
SMA 50 / 200
11.16 / 12.65
downtrend (price < SMA50 < SMA200)
MACD (12, 26, 9)
-0.21 / -0.19
MACD below signal

Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).

Performance

CompanyS&P 500vs S&P 500Vertical median
1 month−5.0%−1.1%−3.9 pp—
3 months−24.2%−0.5%−23.8 pp—
6 months−25.2%+4.4%−29.6 pp—
Year to date−9.2%+12.3%−21.6 pp—
1 year−14.9%+13.5%−28.4 pp+18.1%
3 years−45.5%+76.4%−121.9 pp+17.3%
5 yearsunavailable+63.7%unavailable—
Max drawdown (1y)
−32.8%
19 May 2026 → 04 Nov 2026
Max drawdown (5y)
−52.2%
29 Apr 2024 → 04 Nov 2026
Compound annual growth (5y)
unavailable
S&P 500 +10.4%

Price returns, dividends excluded.

Quarterly results

Latest quarter: Q2 2026 · 30 Jun 2026

Revenue
406.0 m USD
+40.7% YoY
Net income
98.2 m USD
+9.5% YoY
Diluted EPS
0.58
−23.7% YoY
net / operating
24.2% / 30.2%

Quarterly margins

Quarterly statements · USD

Fiscal yearQ3 '24Q4 '24Q1 '25Q2 '25Q3 '25Q4 '25Q1 '26Q2 '26
Revenue255.5 m234.9 m226.8 m288.5 m272.6 m387.5 m285.9 m406.0 m
Operating income94.7 m58.5 m51.7 m111.3 m-19.2 m101.2 m-9.7 m122.5 m
Depreciation & amortisation65.6 m ≈69.9 m63.6 m62.2 m65.6 m ≈96.5 m98.2 m87.8 m
Interest expense26.8 m24.5 m17.9 m12.1 m16.9 m25.3 m24.4 m24.5 m
Net income67.4 m36.5 m15.9 m89.7 m-35.7 m73.1 m-35.0 m98.2 m
Diluted EPS0.700.35 ≈0.140.76-0.280.43 ≈-0.210.58
Operating cash flow110.8 m ≈133.7 m142.5 m130.1 m ≈105.5 m ≈128.7 m170.3 m153.7 m ≈

≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)

E/P over time

E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.

Today's P/E sits at the 71 percentile of its own 7-quarter history (min 7.4, median 10.5, max 24.1; quarters with earnings only).

Fiscal years

Fiscal year20212022202320242025
Revenue392.5 m937.4 m762.3 m969.6 m1.2 bn
Revenue YoYunavailable+138.8%−18.7%+27.2%+21.2%
Net income138.4 m516.8 m68.5 m185.2 m143.0 m
Net income YoYunavailable+273.5%−86.7%+170.3%−22.8%
Diluted EPSunavailableunavailable0.721.901.09
Diluted EPS YoYunavailableunavailableunavailable+163.9%−42.6%
net %35.3%55.1%9.0%19.1%12.2%
Free cash flowunavailableunavailableunavailableunavailableunavailable

Reported results vs expectations

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Balance sheet & financial health

Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025

Cash
42.6 m USD
Financial debt
1.1 bn USD
Net debt
1.1 bn USD
Equity
unavailable USD
Total assets
3.8 bn USD
Debt / equity
unavailable
Current ratio
1.05x
ROE
unavailable
ROA
4.7%
FCF margin
unavailable

Financial statements (source on every figure)

Revenue and net income (USD)

Margins

Income statement · USD

Revenue
2023
762.3 m
2024
969.6 m
2025
1.2 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 12 Mar 2026verified

Operating income
2023
359.1 m
2024
291.0 m
2025
245.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 12 Mar 2026verified

Depreciation & amortisation
2023
137.6 m
2024
271.0 m
2025
292.8 m

SEC (XBRL)· 12 Mar 2026verified

EBITDA
2023
496.8 m ≈
2024
562.0 m ≈
2025
537.7 m ≈

SEC (XBRL)· 12 Mar 2026derived

Interest expense
2023
11.2 m
2024
104.6 m
2025
72.2 m

SEC (XBRL)· 12 Mar 2026verified

Net income
2023
68.5 m
2024
185.2 m
2025
143.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 12 Mar 2026verified

Diluted EPS
2023
0.72
2024
1.90
2025
1.09

SEC (XBRL)· 12 Mar 2026verified

Weighted average diluted shares
2023
94.9 m
2024
97.7 m
2025
131.5 m

SEC (XBRL)· 12 Mar 2026verified

Balance sheet · USD

Cash
2023
152.8 m
2024
105.8 m
2025
42.6 m

SEC (XBRL)· 12 Mar 2026verified

Inventories
2023
31.4 m
2024
24.3 m
2025
43.5 m

SEC (XBRL)· 12 Mar 2026verified

Current assets
2023
343.6 m
2024
322.1 m
2025
378.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 12 Mar 2026verified

Property, plant & equipment, net
2023
89.7 m
2024
91.8 m
2025
194.8 m

SEC (XBRL)· 12 Mar 2026verified

Total assets
2023
2.3 bn
2024
2.3 bn
2025
3.8 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 12 Mar 2026verified

Accounts payable
2023
—
2024
—
2025
—

SEC (XBRL)· 07 Dec 2023verified

Short-term debt
2023
61.9 m
2024
82.5 m
2025
0

SEC (XBRL)· 12 Mar 2026verified

Long-term debt
2023
745.1 m
2024
668.8 m
2025
1.1 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 12 Mar 2026verified

Current liabilities
2023
274.9 m
2024
352.4 m
2025
359.9 m

SEC (XBRL)· 12 Mar 2026verified

Cash flow · USD

Operating cash flow
2023
491.7 m
2024
505.3 m
2025
507.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 12 Mar 2026verified

Investing cash flow
2023
-1.0 bn
2024
-306.3 m
2025
-899.2 m

SEC (XBRL)· 12 Mar 2026verified

Financing cash flow
2023
658.8 m
2024
-246.0 m
2025
329.1 m

SEC (XBRL)· 12 Mar 2026verified

Computed indicators

Growth

Revenue growth (YoY)
21.2%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Revenue CAGR 3Y
7.8%
computed by olivLawFY 2022 → FY 2025
Revenue CAGR 5Y
unavailable
input data missing
EBIT growth (YoY)
-15.8%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Net income growth (YoY)
-22.8%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Net income CAGR 3Y
-34.8%
computed by olivLawFY 2022 → FY 2025
Net income CAGR 5Y
unavailable
input data missing
EPS growth (YoY)
-42.6%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
EPS CAGR 3Y
unavailable
input data missing
EPS CAGR 5Y
unavailable
input data missing
FCF growth (YoY)
unavailable
input data missing

Profitability

Gross margin
unavailable
input data missing
EBITDA margin
40.1%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
EBIT margin
14.4%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Net margin
7.4%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
FCF margin
unavailable
input data missing

Returns

ROE
unavailable
input data missing
ROA
3.3%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
ROIC
unavailable
input data missing
ROCE
5.9%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Payout ratio (EPS)
unavailable
input data missing
Payout ratio (FCF)
unavailable
input data missing

Balance sheet

Net debt
1.1 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Net debt / EBITDA
2.1x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Debt / equity
unavailable
input data missing
Interest coverage
2.1x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026

Liquidity

Current ratio
0.9x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Quick ratio
0.8x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Cash ratio
0.1x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026

Cash

Operating cash flow
558.3 m USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Capital expenditure
unavailable
input data missing
Free cash flow
unavailable
input data missing
FCF conversion
unavailable
input data missing
Cash conversion
102.8%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026

Efficiency

Days sales outstanding
unavailable
input data missing
Days inventory outstanding
unavailable
input data missing
Days payables outstanding
unavailable
input data missing
Cash conversion cycle
unavailable
input data missing

Market and valuation

Market capitalisation
1.7 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Enterprise value
2.8 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Market cap / net income TTM
16.6x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
P/E (TTM)
19.1x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Earnings yield
5.2%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
P/B
unavailable
input data missing
P/S
1.2x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
EV/EBITDA
5.2x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
EV/EBIT
14.4x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
EV/Sales
2.1x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
P/FCF
unavailable
input data missing
FCF yield
unavailable
input data missing
Dividend yield
unavailable
no dividend in the structured statements; a missing line is not a confirmed zero
Shareholder yield (distributions)
unavailable
input data missing

Risk

Altman Z
unavailable
input data missing

Valuation

olivLaw classification

Insufficient data
What is missing
  • score weight coverage: 56.2% of at least 60%

A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.

Closing price

10.02 USD

04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series

Market cap: 1.7 bn USD

Key indicators

Market capitalisation
1.7 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
P/E (TTM)
19.1x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
P/B
unavailable
input data missing
EV/EBITDA
5.2x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
ROE
unavailable
input data missing
Net margin
7.4%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Revenue growth (YoY)
21.2%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Dividend yield
unavailable
no dividend in the structured statements; a missing line is not a confirmed zero

Coverage and freshness

20/37 reporting lines present
Latest full fiscal year: 2025
Latest reported period: 30 Jun 2026
Latest balance sheet date: 30 Jun 2026
Share count (cover of the latest filing), as of: 31 Jul 2026
Source: SEC (XBRL)published 06 Aug 2026
verified 340derived 32

Score by group

56% · Insufficient data

Estimated value range

Low
4.49
USD per share
Mid
7.30
USD per share
High
9.04
USD per share
Price: 10.02 USD
The price is above the range
Potential to the central value: -27.1% (value / price − 1)
Margin of safety: -37.3% (1 − price / value)
Agreement between methods: low · 2 methods used · 1 independent bases

The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 4.43 – 11.68 USD.

Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.

Method ranges (USD per share)

— — Mid · ▏ Price

Valuation methods

  • DCF (discounted cash flow)unavailable · input data missing
  • Peers: EV/EBITDA4.55 – 11.68 (Mid 9.39)
    14 companies used · median multiple 5.0x · quartiles 3.5x – 5.7x
    APA, AR, CRK, DEC, EOG, EQT, EXE, FANG, MTDR, MUR, OVV, PARR, REPX, WTI
  • Peers: P/E4.43 – 6.40 (Mid 5.21)
    18 companies used · median multiple 9.9x · quartiles 8.4x – 12.2x
    ANNA, APA, AR, CKX, CRK, DEC, DVN, EOG, EQT, EXE, MTDR, MUR, OVV, OXY, PARR, PR, REPX, TTE
  • Dividend discount (DDM)unavailable · the company pays no dividend: a dividend model needs an explicit initiation assumption
Multiple comparisons use the SIC vertical: Crude Petroleum & Natural Gas (SIC 1311)

Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.

Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)

Risk-free rate
4.3%
Equity risk premium
5.0%
Beta (default)
1.00
Cost of equity
9.3%
Terminal growth
2.5%

Factor scorecard

Insufficient data

Minimum-evidence gate: score weight coverage: 56.2% of at least 60%

FactorValueScoreWeight used
ROIC · Qualityunavailableunavailable—
Net margin · Quality7.4%46 (vs peers)11%
FCF conversion · Qualityunavailableunavailable—
Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth7.8%65 (on a fixed band)15%
EPS CAGR 3Y · Growthunavailableunavailable—
Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet2.1x18 (vs peers)19%
Interest coverage · Balance sheet2.1x10 (on a fixed band)11%
Current ratio · Balance sheet0.9x6 (on a fixed band)7%
P/E (TTM) · Valuation19.1x14 (vs peers)19%
EV/EBITDA · Valuation5.2x56 (vs peers)19%
FCF yield · Valuationunavailableunavailable—
Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returnsunavailableunavailable—
Payout ratio (FCF) · Returnsunavailableunavailable—

Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.

Score groups

  • Balance sheet13/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
  • Growth· partial65/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
  • Quality· partial46/100 · 1/3 factors with a value
  • Returns· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
  • Valuation35/100 · 2/3 factors with a value

A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.

Memo

Mach Natural Resources LP (MNR). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2026-06-30.

Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 1.2 bn USD in 2025; YoY growth 21.2%; net margin 7.4%; net debt/EBITDA 2.1x.

The estimated value range is 4.49–9.04 USD per share (median of 2 methods, agreement: low); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 7.30 USD, the price of 10.02 USD leaves a potential of -27.1% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of -37.3% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.

Insufficient data for a verdict (score weight coverage: 56.2% of at least 60%).

Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.

What supports the thesis

No signal among the computed factors. That is not an absence of risk: factors without data were not assessed, and business risks (margins, inventory, demand) are in the source-based analysis.

What contradicts it

  • Net debt / EBITDA: 2.1x
  • Interest coverage: 2.1x
  • Current ratio: 0.9x
  • P/E (TTM): 19.1x
  • The price is above the estimated value range
  • The valuation methods diverge

Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): ROIC, FCF conversion, EPS CAGR 3Y, FCF yield, Shareholder yield (distributions), Payout ratio (FCF).

Versus the vertical median

Crude Petroleum & Natural Gas (SIC 1311) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 39 companies

Multiples and returns vs the median

P/E
19.1x
vertical median 10.5x
above median (+81.3%)
EV/EBITDA
5.2x
vertical median 5.3x
at median
P/S
1.2x
vertical median 1.6x
below median (−24.4%)
P/B
—
vertical median 1.4x
ROE
—
vertical median 10.9%
Net margin
7.4%
vertical median 8.2%
below median (−9.6%)
EBIT margin
14.4%
vertical median 14.9%
at median
Revenue YoY
21.2%
vertical median -1.9%
above median
Net debt/EBITDA
2.1x
vertical median 0.9x
above median (+126.5%)
Dividend yield
—
vertical median 2.4%

Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)

Companies in the vertical

Market capP/EROENet marginRevenue YoY1A / 3A
TTETotalEnergies SE199.6 bn15.711.3%6.5%−6.2%+38% / +33%
PBRPetrobras - Petroleo Brasileiro SA145.9 bn33.810.9%8.2%−10.7%+56% / +28%
EOGEog Resources, Inc.77.1 bn11.422.5%25.4%−4.5%+36% / +19%
OXYOccidental Petroleum Corporation57.3 bn8.618.9%33.7%−1.9%+37% / −3%
FANGDiamondback Energy, Inc.51.1 bn25.05.3%11.0%+35.8%+20% / +18%
DVNDevon Energy Corp48.5 bn10.511.5%16.7%+7.8%+19% / −2%
EQTEqt Corporation32.9 bn12.510.9%28.4%+63.9%−14% / +31%
EXEExpand Energy Corporation20.2 bn7.614.6%19.8%+186.3%−28% / +9%
PRPermian Resources Corporation18.8 bn14.911.5%21.5%+1.3%+55% / +71%
OVVOvintiv Inc.16.8 bn12.712.1%12.8%−2.7%+53% / +41%
APAApa Corporation15.6 bn9.425.9%—unavailable+78% / +24%
ARAntero Resources Corporation11.5 bn8.417.6%21.7%+22.0%+3% / +58%
MTDRMatador Resources Company6.2 bn8.612.8%19.9%+5.5%+19% / −13%
MURMurphy Oil Corporation5.2 bn11.28.9%15.0%−10.2%+12% / −16%
CRCCalifornia Resources Corp4.3 bn—-15.5%-18.1%+14.7%+1% / −6%
CRKComstock Resources, Inc.3.9 bn7.621.1%23.3%+77.0%−50% / +36%
PARRPar Pacific Holdings, Inc.3.5 bn3.650.9%9.8%−6.4%+53% / +103%
MNRMach Natural Resources LP1.7 bn19.1—7.4%+21.2%−15% / −45%
TBNTamboran Resources Corporation982.4 m—-4.8%—unavailable+18% / unavailable
REPXRiley Exploration Permian, Inc.948.6 m9.216.8%17.3%−4.4%+57% / +74%
DECDiversified Energy Company942.7 m16.711.0%4.9%+141.5%−11% / +1,434%
TTITETRA Technologies, Inc.917.3 m100.82.5%1.4%+5.3%−20% / +31%
AESIAtlas Energy Solutions Inc.843.0 m—-12.1%-13.0%+3.7%−22% / −61%
EGYVaalco Energy Inc568.0 m—-24.4%-31.1%−25.0%+51% / +16%
WTIW&T Offshore, Inc.497.2 m——-8.4%−4.5%+81% / −4%

1- and 3-year price returns: for MNR from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.

olivLaw engine forecast

The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.

The engine has no published run for this company yet.

Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)

Illustrative scenarios

Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.

Bear
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Base
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Bull
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Nothing is saved.

Estimated price (USD)

Estimated priceBearBaseBull
1 years
7.04
Total return -30% · Per year -30%
12.42
Total return 24% · Per year 24%
18.68
Total return 86% · Per year 86%
3 years
7.29
Total return -27% · Per year -10%
14.44
Total return 44% · Per year 13%
23.79
Total return 137% · Per year 33%
5 years
7.56
Total return -25% · Per year -5%
16.79
Total return 68% · Per year 11%
30.28
Total return 202% · Per year 25%
What moves the 3-year price the most
  • Exit P/E± 3.61
  • Net margin± 2.53
  • Annual revenue growth± 2.01
  • Annual dilution± 0.21

AI analysis

AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

In brief

Mach Natural Resources LP is an independent upstream oil and gas company focused on acquiring, developing and producing reserves across the Anadarko, San Juan and Permian Basins, with integrated midstream assets. Production growth in 2026 through acquisitions and a shift of capital toward oil makes recent reporting worth following 13. The company reported average production of 148.9 MBoe/d in the second quarter of 2026 3.

SWOT

Strengths

  • A diversified portfolio across three basins and an integrated midstream infrastructure that optimizes pricing and reduces third-party costs 1.
  • Low-declining assets that generate cash flow across a range of commodity price environments 1.
  • The ability to quickly redirect capital toward high-return oil projects 3.

Weaknesses

  • Operating costs per unit rose after acquisitions, particularly from the oil-heavy production added through Sabinal 1.
  • There is no minimum quarterly distribution, and payments can be zero in a given quarter 1.
  • High utilization of the revolving credit facility leaves limited liquidity headroom 3.

Opportunities

  • If oil prices stay favorable, the restarted Oswego drilling program could raise oil output 3.
  • Further acquisitions funded through the credit facility could expand assets if they prove economical 1.
  • Selling midstream capacity to third parties could generate additional revenue 1.

Threats

  • A sustained decline in prices could reduce margins, cash flow and borrowing capacity 1.
  • Inflation and equipment costs could erode profitability if they cannot be recovered through prices 2.
  • Regulation on greenhouse gas emissions and hydraulic fracturing could delay or restrict drilling 1.

Risks

  • Commodity price volatilityhigh

    Revenues depend on oil, gas and NGL prices, which are volatile and driven by external factors 12.

  • Debt and credit facilitymedium

    The company relies on a revolving credit line with high utilization, and contractual restrictions can limit distributions 13.

  • Drilling and reserve riskmedium

    Wells may be unproductive and reserve estimates rest on assumptions that may prove inaccurate, which could reduce the borrowing base 1.

  • Acquisition integrationlow

    Acquired properties may produce less than projected, and hidden liabilities may be hard to identify 1.

Investment thesis

What would need to be true (bull case)

  • If oil prices stay elevated, the shift of capital toward high-return projects could support growing cash flow 3.
  • Integrated midstream infrastructure and a portfolio across three basins can reduce costs and dependence on a single area 1.
  • Recent acquisitions brought a large production increase, and this effect could persist if integration goes well 13.

What would break the thesis

  • A fall in oil or gas prices could quickly compress margins and distribution capacity 12.
  • Operating costs rose after acquisitions, and inflation could add further pressure 12.
  • Debt and contractual restrictions could limit flexibility and distributions in weaker periods 13.

What to watch

  • Oil and gas price trends and their effect on cash flowQ3 2026
  • Resumption of Mancos completions and the effect on gas production2027
  • Credit facility utilization and any new acquisitionsQ3 2026
  • Updated 2026 guidance and operating cost per Boenext 10-K

Products, market & competition

AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

The business

Mach Natural Resources LP, listed on NYSE under the symbol MNR, acquires, develops and produces oil, natural gas and NGLs, with a partnership structure that makes cash distributions to unitholders. In fiscal 2025 it had total revenues of 1175.4 mn USD and total production of 37731 MBoe, averaging 103.37 MBoe/d 1. Its assets are integrated with owned gathering, processing and water infrastructure that also generates third-party revenue 1.

Upstream operations are concentrated in the Anadarko Basin of western Oklahoma, southern Kansas and the Texas panhandle, the San Juan Basin of New Mexico and Colorado, and the Permian Basin of west Texas 2. The company operates approximately 12000 PDP wells, with prospective assets in the Oswego, Woodford and Mississippian, Mancos and Fruitland formations 1.

Recent growth has been largely inorganic: the company completed six acquisitions in the last two years, most notably IKAV and Sabinal, which closed in September 2025 1. In the second quarter of 2026 it redirected capital toward high-return oil projects, and the Oswego drilling program restarted in May 2026 3.

Segments

Oil, natural gas and NGLs

Sales of oil, natural gas and NGLs were the main revenue source, and in the second quarter of 2026 the realized oil price was 95.40 USD per barrel before derivatives 23. Natural gas made up about 69% of production in the same quarter 3.

Midstream

The midstream segment includes gathering systems, processing plants and water infrastructure integrated with upstream operations, and it also earns third-party revenue 1. In the second quarter of 2026 midstream operating profit was about five million USD, per the results release 3.

Derivatives and product sales

Commodity derivative gains helped revenues when prices fell, and in fiscal 2025 the company recorded net derivative gains of 81.3 mn USD 1. Product sales, linked to natural gas, are a smaller revenue component 1.

Market context

WTI crude prices ranged between 55.27 and 112.95 USD per barrel from January 2025 to June 2026, and Henry Hub gas between 2.52 and 7.46 USD per MMBtu 2. The company notes the industry is cyclical and that volatility could continue, including because of the war in Ukraine, Middle East conflict and OPEC+ decisions 12.

Consumer price inflation was 3.5% in June 2026, which could raise drilling and labor costs if they cannot be recovered through higher commodity prices 2. The Federal Reserve lowered its policy rate range in late 2025, which affects the cost of financing 1.

Trends

  • Shift toward oiltailwind

    Management moved capital toward high-return oil drilling, which could raise margins if oil prices stay elevated 3.

  • Consolidation through acquisitionsmixed

    Recent acquisitions rapidly increased production and gas volumes, but also added higher operating costs per unit produced 1.

  • Price volatilityheadwind

    Geopolitical instability and OPEC+ decisions have produced wide price swings that can affect cash available for distribution 12.

  • Inflation and financing costsheadwind

    Rising costs for equipment and labor, combined with higher interest rates, could shrink margins if not offset by product prices 2.

Competitive position

Mach operates among independent oil and gas producers in the Mid-Continent, Permian and San Juan Basins, where competition centers on production costs, access to assets and the ability to fund acquisitions 1. The company differentiates through its integrated midstream infrastructure and its distribution structure 1.

The supplied source texts do not explicitly name direct competitors, so the assessment of competitive position is limited to what the company's own filings describe 13.

  • Independent Permian operators

    Upstream producers active in the same basin, referred to only generically in the context of competition for assets and capital.

  • Independent Anadarko operators

    Producers active in the Oswego and Mississippian plays, competing for acquisitions and access to infrastructure.

  • San Juan gas producers

    Natural gas producers in the San Juan Basin, competing on prices and processing costs.

  • Third-party midstream providers

    Gathering and processing companies that compete with the company's own midstream infrastructure.

News & filings

In the press

No news in our archive over the last 180 days.

SEC filings

Sources

  1. [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · SEC / Mach Natural Resources LP · 12 Mar 2026
  2. [2] Form 10-Q, quarter ended 2026-06-30 · SEC / Mach Natural Resources LP · 06 Aug 2026
  3. [3] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / Mach Natural Resources LP · 06 Aug 2026

Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.