olivLaw · US equity research
Shift4 Payments, Inc. FOUR
Services-Business Services, NEC · SIC 7389 · Vertical: Services-Business Services, NEC (SIC 7389)
Shift4 Payments is an independent provider of software and payment processing, active mainly in the U.S. and expanding into international markets, and through the Global Blue acquisition it is also a leader in tax-free shopping. For today's reader, the relevance comes from integrating these assets and from the direction of global expansion.
The AI analysis may be outdated: new filings came after its sources (see the «AI analysis» section).
At the close of 05 Nov 2026, Shift4 Payments, Inc. (FOUR) stock was 42.79 USD (−4.53% on the day), with market capitalisation 3.4 bn USD, P/E 32.1, beta 1.33, 52-week range 35.58–73.78 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q2 2026): revenue of 1.3 bn USD (+34.1% YoY), net income of 22.0 m USD (−35.3% YoY).
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
Loading chart…
Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 58.2
- strong (55–70)
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 36.30 – 43.44
- in the upper half of the band · %B 0.91 · band width 17.9%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 40.29 / 45.88
- mixed trend
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- 0.62 / -0.03
- MACD above signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | S&P 500 | vs S&P 500 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | +11.1% | −5.9% | +17.1 pp | — |
| 3 months | −1.3% | −4.6% | +3.3 pp | — |
| 6 months | −8.7% | +0.2% | −8.9 pp | — |
| Year to date | −32.0% | +7.4% | −39.5 pp | — |
| 1 year | −36.3% | +8.2% | −44.5 pp | −0.6% |
| 3 years | −8.1% | +68.4% | −76.5 pp | +0.1% |
| 5 years | −29.4% | +56.5% | −86.0 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
Latest quarter: Q2 2026 · 30 Jun 2026
Quarterly margins
Quarterly statements · USD
| Fiscal year | Q3 '24 | Q4 '24 | Q1 '25 | Q2 '25 | Q3 '25 | Q4 '25 | Q1 '26 | Q2 '26 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 909.2 m | 887.4 m | 848.0 m | 966.0 m | 1.2 bn | 1.2 bn | 1.1 bn | 1.3 bn |
| Cost of revenue | 641.9 m | 601.3 m | 591.0 m | 674.0 m | 747.9 m | 739.1 m | 729.0 m | 849.0 m |
| Operating income | 80.4 m | 86.0 m | 25.0 m | 83.0 m | 114.6 m | 127.9 m | 50.0 m | 95.0 m |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 77.3 m | 83.9 m | 85.0 m | 88.0 m | 125.1 m | 133.3 m | 135.0 m | 139.0 m |
| Interest expense | 18.3 m | 27.5 m | 29.0 m | 39.0 m | 60.8 m | 61.3 m | 65.0 m | 65.0 m |
| Pre-tax income | -208.3 m | 124.7 m | 11.0 m | 56.0 m | 60.5 m | 67.4 m | -12.0 m | 37.0 m |
| Income tax | -280.5 m | -15.1 m | -9.0 m | 15.0 m | 27.1 m | 14.4 m | -24.0 m | 13.0 m |
| Net income | 53.8 m | 116.4 m | 17.0 m | 34.0 m | 28.1 m | 40.2 m | 15.0 m | 22.0 m |
| Operating cash flow | 142.5 m ≈ | 130.7 m | 96.0 m | 142.0 m ≈ | 172.3 m ≈ | 223.7 m | 134.0 m | 63.0 m ≈ |
| Capex | 2.0 m ≈ | 1.5 m | 1.0 m | 1.0 m ≈ | 6.8 m ≈ | 1.2 m | 6.0 m | 6.0 m ≈ |
| Share repurchases | 20.0 m ≈ | 110.1 m | 63.0 m | 85.0 m ≈ | 200.0 k ≈ | 304.8 m | 295.0 m | 26.0 m ≈ |
≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)
E/P over time
EPS unavailable in the issuer's structured filings (e.g. a partnership reports per unit, not per share).
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 560.6 m | 731.4 m | 766.9 m | 1.4 bn | 2.0 bn | 2.6 bn | 3.3 bn | 4.2 bn |
| Revenue YoY | unavailable | +30.5% | +4.9% | +78.3% | +45.8% | +28.7% | +29.9% | +25.5% |
| Net income | -55.4 m | -56.6 m | -18.4 m | -48.2 m | 75.1 m | 86.0 m | 230.0 m | 119.0 m |
| Net income YoY | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | +14.5% | +167.4% | −48.3% |
| Diluted EPS | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable |
| Diluted EPS YoY | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable |
| net % | -9.9% | -7.7% | -2.4% | -3.5% | 3.8% | 3.4% | 6.9% | 2.8% |
| Free cash flow | 23.9 m | -200.0 k | -800.0 k | -5.2 m | 267.4 m | 332.0 m | 493.0 m | 624.0 m |
Reported results vs expectations
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Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025
- Cash
- 964.0 m USD
- Financial debt
- 4.5 bn USD
- Net debt
- 3.6 bn USD
- Equity
- 1.9 bn USD
- Total assets
- 8.7 bn USD
- Debt / equity
- 2.33x
- Current ratio
- 1.66x
- ROE
- 8.0%
- ROA
- 1.7%
- FCF margin
- 14.9%
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (USD)
Margins
Income statement · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 766.9 m | 1.4 bn | 2.0 bn | 2.6 bn | 3.3 bn | 4.2 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified |
| Cost of revenue | 589.1 m | 1.1 bn | 1.5 bn | 1.9 bn | 2.4 bn | 2.8 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified |
| Gross profit | 177.8 m | 278.4 m | 470.2 m ≈ | 688.0 m ≈ | 973.0 m ≈ | 1.4 bn ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026derived |
| Research & development | 1.2 m | 1.8 m | 500.0 k | 1.0 m | 4.0 m | 6.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified |
| Operating income | -57.6 m | -49.2 m | 94.7 m | 115.0 m | 247.0 m | 351.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 84.2 m | 104.4 m | 149.1 m | 215.0 m | 297.0 m | 432.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified |
| EBITDA | 26.6 m ≈ | 55.2 m ≈ | 243.8 m ≈ | 330.0 m ≈ | 544.0 m ≈ | 783.0 m ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026derived |
| Interest expense | 40.2 m | 28.0 m | 32.5 m | 32.1 m | 62.0 m | 190.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified |
| Pre-tax income | -113.8 m | -77.1 m | 86.9 m | 120.0 m | -1.0 m | 195.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified |
| Income tax | -2.4 m | -3.1 m | 200.0 k | -3.0 m | -296.0 m | 48.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified |
| Net income | -18.4 m | -48.2 m | 75.1 m | 86.0 m | 230.0 m | 119.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified |
| Weighted average diluted shares | — | — | 3.9 m | 1.9 m | 1.7 m | 1.3 m | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Revenue − Cost of revenue; Operating income + Depreciation & amortisation.
Balance sheet · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 927.8 m | 1.2 bn | 702.5 m | 455.0 m | 1.2 bn | 964.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified |
| Receivables | 92.7 m | 205.9 m | 195.0 m | 256.8 m | 349.0 m | 742.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified |
| Inventories | 1.5 m | 3.5 m | 4.8 m | 3.4 m | 8.9 m | — | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2025verified |
| Current assets | 1.0 bn | 1.5 bn | 991.7 m | 1.2 bn | 1.9 bn | 2.2 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | 15.1 m | 18.4 m | 22.3 m | 28.6 m | — | — | SEC (XBRL)· 29 Feb 2024verified |
| Goodwill | 477.0 m | 537.7 m | 735.0 m | 1.1 bn | 1.5 bn | 2.7 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified |
| Intangibles (excl. goodwill) | 186.3 m | 188.5 m | 646.8 m | 830.1 m | 980.9 m | 3.0 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified |
| Total assets | 1.8 bn | 2.3 bn | 2.6 bn | 3.4 bn | 5.0 bn | 8.7 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified |
| Accounts payable | 60.6 m | 121.1 m | 166.7 m | 204.6 m | 248.0 m | 679.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified |
| Short-term debt | 900.0 k | 0 | — | 0 | 687.0 m | 10.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified |
| Long-term debt | 1.0 bn | 1.7 bn | 1.7 bn | 1.8 bn | 2.2 bn | 4.5 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified |
| Current liabilities | 99.4 m | 183.8 m | 268.3 m | 704.4 m | 1.4 bn | 1.3 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified |
| Total liabilities | 1.1 bn | 1.9 bn | 2.1 bn | 2.5 bn | 4.0 bn | 6.8 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified |
| Equity | 670.0 m | 399.7 m | 481.0 m | 869.0 m | 1.0 bn | 1.9 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified |
Cash flow · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | 4.0 m | 3.0 m | 275.4 m | 346.0 m | 500.0 m | 634.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified |
| Capex | 4.8 m | 8.2 m | 8.0 m | 14.0 m | 7.0 m | 10.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified |
| Free cash flow | -800.0 k ≈ | -5.2 m ≈ | 267.4 m ≈ | 332.0 m ≈ | 493.0 m ≈ | 624.0 m ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026derived |
| Investing cash flow | -82.7 m | -170.5 m | -516.8 m | -302.0 m | -691.0 m | -3.0 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified |
| Financing cash flow | 1.0 bn | 471.2 m | -214.6 m | -110.0 m | 929.0 m | 2.1 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified |
| Share repurchases | 0 | 19.5 m | 185.9 m | 105.0 m | 146.0 m | 453.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating cash flow − Capex.
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
Risk
Valuation
olivLaw classification
Score: 59 / 100
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
05 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 3.4 bn USD
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
- Quality57
- Growth100
- Balance sheet20
- Returns100
- Valuation68
Estimated value range
The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 21.54 – 428.46 USD.
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Method ranges (USD per share)
— — Mid · ▏ Price
Valuation methods
- DCF (discounted cash flow)183.12 – 428.46 (Mid 262.39)WACC 6.7% · starting FCFF 774.8 m USD · terminal value share of EV 83%The WACC × g sensitivity gives the method's bounds; these are not probabilities.Reverse DCF: no growth between −30% and +40% justifies the price
- Peers: EV/EBITDA84.70 – 151.47 (Mid 129.86)17 companies used · median multiple 15.7x · quartiles 11.8x – 17.5xBR, CBZ, CPAY, EBAY, EXLS, FICO, FIS, GPN, MELI, PHR, PRTH, PSFE, PYPL, QNST, RBA, TIC, UBER
- Peers: P/E21.54 – 44.57 (Mid 34.53)22 companies used · median multiple 25.9x · quartiles 16.2x – 33.4xACN, AKAM, BR, CART, CBZ, CPAY, DLO, EBAY, EXLS, FICO, FIS, FVRR, MA, MAX, MELI, MSCI, PRTH, PYPL, QNST, RBA, SEZL, UBER
- Dividend discount (DDM)unavailable · the company pays no dividend: a dividend model needs an explicit initiation assumption
Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 4.3%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 9.3%
- Terminal growth
- 2.5%
Factor scorecard
Neutral profile · Score 59/100
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | 7.2% | 46 (vs peers) | 12% |
| Net margin · Quality | 2.2% | 32 (vs peers) | 7% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | 544.2% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 7% |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | 28.0% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 10% |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | 4.5x | 25 (vs peers) | 12% |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | 1.5x | 1 (on a fixed band) | 7% |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 1.2x | 34 (on a fixed band) | 5% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | 32.1x | 33 (vs peers) | 12% |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | 8.2x | 78 (vs peers) | 12% |
| FCF yield · Valuation | 17.0% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 10% |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | 18.5% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 7% |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet20/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
- Growth· partial100/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
- Quality57/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
- Returns· partial100/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
- Valuation68/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
SHIFT4 PAYMENTS, INC. (FOUR). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2026-06-30.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 4.2 bn USD in 2025; YoY growth 25.5%; net margin 2.2%; ROE 6.6%; net debt/EBITDA 4.5x.
The estimated value range is 84.70–151.47 USD per share (median of 3 methods, agreement: low); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 129.86 USD, the price of 42.79 USD leaves a potential of 203.5% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of 67.0% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
olivLaw score 59/100, methodological classification: neutral profile (score, margin of safety and method agreement together; not a judgement of the right price). Groups assessed only in part: growth, returns. Not investment advice.
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- FCF conversion: 544.2%
- Revenue CAGR 3Y: 28.0%
- EV/EBITDA: 8.2x
- FCF yield: 17.0%
- Shareholder yield (distributions): 18.5%
- The price is below the estimated value range
What contradicts it
- Net debt / EBITDA: 4.5x
- Interest coverage: 1.5x
- The valuation methods diverge
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): EPS CAGR 3Y, Payout ratio (FCF).
Versus the vertical median
Services-Business Services, NEC (SIC 7389) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 39 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UBERUber Technologies, Inc. | 140.4 bn | 40.7 | 12.4% | 6.1% | +18.3% | −21% / +22% |
| MELIMercadoLibre, Inc. | 77.6 bn | 41.6 | 27.5% | 5.3% | +39.1% | −26% / −6% |
| EBAYeBay Inc. | 54.2 bn | 26.8 | 46.6% | 16.9% | +7.9% | +49% / +201% |
| PYPLPayPal Holdings, Inc. | 49.0 bn | 11.2 | 23.8% | 13.8% | +4.3% | −6% / +2% |
| MSCIMsci Inc. | 46.9 bn | 34.7 | — | 40.3% | +9.7% | +16% / +26% |
| FISVFiserv, Inc. | 33.4 bn | — | -17.0% | -18.9% | +3.6% | +2% / −52% |
| CPAYCorpay, Inc | 29.3 bn | 27.2 | 30.5% | 22.7% | +13.9% | +51% / +86% |
| GPNGlobal Payments Inc. | 25.1 bn | — | -4.1% | -9.1% | −0.4% | +25% / −18% |
| BRBroadridge Financial Solutions, Inc. | 21.9 bn | 21.4 | 40.2% | 13.9% | +8.5% | −15% / +0% |
| RBARB Global, Inc | 17.6 bn | 39.7 | 8.8% | 10.0% | +7.2% | −3% / +49% |
| FICOFair Isaac Corp | 15.3 bn | 20.4 | — | 34.1% | +15.9% | −61% / −35% |
| FISFidelity National Information Services, Inc. | 15.1 bn | 4.4 | 23.0% | 26.8% | +5.4% | −55% / −50% |
| CARTMaplebear Inc. | 13.4 bn | 31.6 | 17.1% | 12.0% | +10.8% | +38% / +139% |
| AKAMAkamai Technologies, Inc | 11.2 bn | 28.0 | 8.9% | 9.5% | +5.4% | −13% / −33% |
| EXLSExlservice Holdings, Inc. | 6.6 bn | 26.0 | 27.7% | 11.1% | +13.6% | +10% / +54% |
| SEZLSezzle Inc. | 5.2 bn | 34.0 | 88.9% | 30.4% | +66.1% | +151% / +9,209% |
| DLODLocal Limited | 4.0 bn | 20.6 | 37.2% | 18.0% | +46.6% | −0% / −22% |
| FOURShift4 Payments, Inc. | 3.4 bn | 32.1 | 6.6% | 2.2% | +25.5% | −36% / −8% |
| CBZCBIZ, Inc. | 3.0 bn | 25.8 | 6.8% | 4.6% | +52.1% | −0% / +6% |
| TICTIC Solutions, Inc. | 2.1 bn | — | -7.1% | -5.6% | unavailable | −1% / unavailable |
| QNSTQuinStreet, Inc. | 1.2 bn | 14.5 | 28.6% | 6.3% | +18.3% | +46% / +63% |
| PHRPhreesia, Inc. | 788.9 m | 74.3 | 3.1% | 2.1% | +14.5% | −38% / −18% |
| PRTHPriority Technology Holdings, Inc. | 648.8 m | 11.5 | — | 5.6% | +8.3% | +35% / +162% |
| PSFEPaysafe Ltd | 340.5 m | — | -23.8% | -10.7% | −0.2% | −14% / −35% |
| FVRRFiverr International Ltd. | 303.5 m | 15.0 | 5.4% | 4.9% | +10.1% | −60% / −68% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for FOUR from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (USD)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | 27.96 Total return -35% · Per year -35% | 49.21 Total return 15% · Per year 15% | 73.81 Total return 73% · Per year 73% |
| 3 years | 33.17 Total return -22% · Per year -8% | 65.08 Total return 52% · Per year 15% | 106.29 Total return 148% · Per year 35% |
| 5 years | 39.34 Total return -8% · Per year -2% | 86.07 Total return 101% · Per year 15% | 153.06 Total return 258% · Per year 29% |
- Exit P/E± 16.27
- Net margin± 11.39
- Annual revenue growth± 8.49
- Annual dilution± 0.96
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 06 Aug 2026; since then the company filed 8-K (05 Nov 2026 · results), 10-Q (05 Nov 2026).
In brief
Shift4 Payments is an independent provider of software and payment processing, active mainly in the U.S. and expanding into international markets, and through the Global Blue acquisition it is also a leader in tax-free shopping. For today's reader, the relevance comes from integrating these assets and from the direction of global expansion.
SWOT
Strengths
Weaknesses
Opportunities
Risks
- Global Blue integrationhigh
If integration does not proceed as planned, the expected synergies and benefits could be delayed or not realized 1.
- Competition in TFShigh
Competitors offering a higher revenue share to merchants could lead to lost accounts or margin pressure 1.
- Economic cyclesmedium
A drop in consumer spending or confidence could reduce processed volume and revenue 1.
- Currency exposuremedium
Growing international operations bring exchange rate risk between the U.S. dollar and local currencies 1.
- VAT regulation changeslow
A cut in VAT rates or changed refund rules could directly affect TFS activity 1.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- If the shift of merchants from gateway to end-to-end solutions continues, revenue per merchant could keep rising 1.
- Combining with Global Blue could bring cross-selling to a global merchant base and diversify revenue sources 1.
- The integrated platform and partner network could support winning new merchants and retaining existing ones 1.
What to watch
- Progress of the Global Blue integration and delivery of announced synergies2026
- Closing of the account-to-account payments acquisition announced in August 2026second half 2026
- Trends in volume and Blended Spread in quarterly reportsQ3 2026
- TFS revenue dynamics under competition and VAT policy changesnext 10-K
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 06 Aug 2026; since then the company filed 8-K (05 Nov 2026 · results), 10-Q (05 Nov 2026).
The business
Shift4 describes its mission as simplifying complex payments ecosystems and says it powers billions of transactions annually for hundreds of thousands of businesses in virtually every industry 1. Its model rests on three pillars: the payments platform, technology solutions, and distribution through ISVs, VARs and an internal sales network 1. Most revenue comes from processing fees charged as a percentage of volume and/or per transaction, plus subscriptions for software and equipment 1.
The Global Blue acquisition in the third quarter of 2025 added tax-free shopping, dynamic currency conversion and payments solutions, widening the customer base and geographic footprint 1. Shift4 also acquired Smartpay in Australia and New Zealand in November 2025 1. In August 2026 the company signed an agreement to acquire an account-to-account payments company, continuing its acquisition strategy 2.
The company also collapsed its Up-C structure in February 2026, converting the founder's and Rook's Class B and Class C shares into Class A shares and taking over the TRA rights 12. The founder was sworn in as NASA administrator in December 2025, and the transaction removed a majority voting stockholder 1.
Segments
Payments processing
The payments platform accepts cards, mobile payments and alternative methods through a proprietary gateway and end-to-end solutions for merchants 1. Revenue is largely recurring and linked to processed volume 1.
Market context
Shift4 operates in the U.S. payment processing market and in tax-free shopping and currency conversion, where it competes with integrated and non-integrated processors 1. International growth, through Finaro in Europe and the UK and Smartpay in Australia and New Zealand, opens access to new markets 1. Demand depends on consumer, business and government spending levels 1.
The market is highly competitive, and pricing and margin pressure is sustained by rivals with greater financial resources and by new entrants using mobile apps 1. Merchant contracts are short or medium term, which makes retention an important factor 1.
Trends
- Moving from gateway to end-to-end solutionstailwind
Gateway-only merchants may adopt end-to-end solutions, and revenue per merchant could rise because these services earn higher fees than gateway-only transactions 1.
- Consumer spending sensitive to the economic cycleheadwind
Revenue depends on transaction volume, and a decline in consumer spending or confidence could reduce processed volume 1.
- International expansion and currency exposuremixed
As international operations grow after the Global Blue acquisition, exposure to exchange rates increases, but so do cross-selling opportunities with global merchants 1.
- Competitive pressure on feesheadwind
Competitors may offer merchants a higher share of revenue or lower fees, which could force the company to adjust contract terms 1.
Competitive position
In end-to-end processing Shift4 competes with non-integrated processors such as Chase Paymentech, Elavon, Worldpay, Fiserv and Global Payments, and with integrated providers such as Adyen, Lightspeed, Shopify, Square and Toast 1. In TFS it competes with other providers and with merchants or governments that run the process in-house 1.
The company says it differentiates on reputation, domain expertise, distribution scale, breadth of offerings and innovation, though some competitors are larger and can offer more aggressive pricing 1.
Links, dependencies and risks
Who the company is tied to, from its own SEC filings (customers, suppliers, production, partners, competitors, countries, regulation), from the 5 %+ holders' statements (13D/13G) and from what other companies say about it. Click a node for its evidence; on a listed company the graph moves to it.
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News & filings
In the press
- How Shift4 Payments (FOUR) is Shaping the Future of TransactionsYahoo Finance — News · 27 Aug 2026 · EN
- Shift4 Payments Shares Climb After Wells Fargo Upgrades StockYahoo Finance — News · 25 Aug 2026 · EN
The latest news item in our archive is from 27 Aug 2026; the newest SEC filing is from 05 Nov 2026. The press archive comes from the RSS feeds we follow and does not necessarily cover the latest event — the filings alongside do.
SEC filings
- Quarterly report05 Nov 2026
- Current report05 Nov 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Quarterly report06 Aug 2026
- Current report06 Aug 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report13 Jul 2026Material agreement · Creation of a direct financial obligation · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report17 Jun 2026Shareholder vote · Financial statements and exhibits
- Quarterly report07 May 2026
- Current report07 May 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Proxy statement30 Apr 2026
- Current report09 Mar 2026Departure or appointment of officers · Regulation FD disclosure
Sources
- [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · SEC / Shift4 Payments, Inc. · 27 Feb 2026
- [2] Form 10-Q, quarter ended 2026-06-30 · SEC / Shift4 Payments, Inc. · 06 Aug 2026
- [3] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / Shift4 Payments, Inc. · 06 Aug 2026
Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.