olivLaw · US equity research
Nutex Health Inc. NUTX
Services-Business Services, NEC · SIC 7389 · Vertical: Services-Business Services, NEC (SIC 7389)
Nutex Health Inc. is a physician-led healthcare services company that operates micro-hospitals, specialty hospitals and outpatient departments in 12 US states, plus a population health division with IPA networks. In 2026 the company is moving from rapid revenue growth to a period in which lower arbitration costs under the No Surprises Act shape results, with total revenue of $427.2 million in the first half of 2026.
At the close of 04 Nov 2026, Nutex Health Inc. (NUTX) stock was 205.22 USD (+14.28% on the day), with market capitalisation 1.4 bn USD, P/E 8.1 on diluted EPS of 25.40 USD over the last 12 months, beta 1.78, 52-week range 87.01–225.00 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q2 2026): revenue of 210.8 m USD (−13.6% YoY), net income of 65.8 m USD, diluted EPS 9.38 USD.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
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Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 51.9
- neutral
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 183.21 – 218.76
- in the upper half of the band · %B 0.62 · band width 17.7%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 203.42 / 150.94
- uptrend (price > SMA50 > SMA200)
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- -1.89 / -0.55
- MACD below signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | S&P 500 | vs S&P 500 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | −8.8% | −1.1% | −7.7 pp | — |
| 3 months | +30.5% | −0.5% | +30.9 pp | — |
| 6 months | +57.1% | +4.4% | +52.8 pp | — |
| Year to date | +24.7% | +12.3% | +12.3 pp | — |
| 1 year | +62.0% | +13.5% | +48.4 pp | −4.0% |
| 3 years | +432.3% | +76.4% | +355.9 pp | −6.4% |
| 5 years | unavailable | +63.7% | unavailable | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
Latest quarter: Q2 2026 · 30 Jun 2026
Quarterly margins
Quarterly statements · USD
| Fiscal year | Q3 '24 | Q4 '24 | Q1 '25 | Q2 '25 | Q3 '25 | Q4 '25 | Q1 '26 | Q2 '26 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 78.8 m | 257.6 m | 211.8 m | 244.0 m | 267.8 m | 151.7 m | 216.5 m | 210.8 m |
| Gross profit | 21.9 m | 141.6 m | 118.3 m | 124.9 m | 154.9 m | 46.1 m | 91.7 m | 141.3 m |
| Operating income | 9.7 m | 114.2 m | 80.7 m | 33.7 m | 130.4 m | 30.9 m | 81.3 m | 121.7 m |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 5.0 m | 5.3 m | 5.1 m | 5.2 m | 5.0 m | 5.2 m | 5.5 m | 5.3 m |
| Interest expense | 5.4 m | 5.1 m | 6.1 m | 5.7 m | 5.5 m | 5.0 m | 4.7 m | 4.7 m |
| Pre-tax income | -2.6 m | 108.6 m | 71.2 m | 23.7 m | 123.9 m | 25.9 m | 76.6 m | 117.1 m |
| Income tax | 4.6 m | 8.6 m | 20.4 m | 7.6 m | 27.1 m | 9.3 m | 13.8 m | 20.8 m |
| Net income | -8.8 m | 61.7 m | 21.2 m | -17.7 m | 55.4 m | 11.8 m | 46.8 m | 65.8 m |
| Diluted EPS | -1.72 | 11.12 | 3.33 | -2.95 | 7.76 | 1.74 ≈ | 6.52 | 9.38 |
| Operating cash flow | 6.8 m ≈ | 54.0 k | 51.0 m | 27.3 m ≈ | 99.5 m ≈ | 70.4 m | 75.5 m | 34.2 m ≈ |
| Capex | 617.0 k ≈ | 395.0 k | 64.0 k | 751.0 k ≈ | 302.0 k ≈ | 1.4 m | 1.2 m | 2.5 m ≈ |
| Share repurchases | — | — | 0 | 0 ≈ | — | — | 31.7 m | 19.0 m ≈ |
≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Today's P/E sits at the 71 percentile of its own 7-quarter history (min 3.4, median 6.7, max 16.7; quarters with earnings only).
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2018 | 2019 | ⚠ 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 1.4 m | 1.4 m | 274.0 m | 331.5 m | 219.3 m | 247.6 m | 479.9 m | 875.3 m |
| Revenue YoY | +5,800.9% | −0.0% | — | +21.0% | −33.9% | +12.9% | +93.8% | +82.4% |
| Net income | -950.1 k | -7.1 m | 106.0 m | 132.6 m | -424.8 m | -45.8 m | 52.1 m | 70.8 m |
| Net income YoY | −263.2% | unavailable | — | +25.1% | −420.4% | unavailable | unavailable | +35.9% |
| Diluted EPS | unavailable | unavailable | 0.18 | 0.22 | -100.36 | -10.39 | 9.69 | 10.48 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | unavailable | unavailable | — | +22.2% | −45,718.2% | unavailable | unavailable | +8.2% |
| net % | -69.5% | -520.8% | 38.7% | 40.0% | -193.7% | -18.5% | 10.9% | 8.1% |
| Free cash flow | -480.0 k | -4.1 m | 25.5 m | 136.5 m | 36.0 m | -8.2 m | 20.8 m | 245.6 m |
The series breaks before 2020: earlier years come from the original reports of the issuer of that time, later years from a subsequent filing that restated the perimeter (a separation, discontinued operations). The year-on-year change across the break is not shown.
Reported results vs expectations
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Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025
- Cash
- 185.6 m USD
- Financial debt
- 42.5 m USD
- Net debt
- -143.1 m USD
- Equity
- 423.4 m USD
- Total assets
- 918.5 m USD
- Debt / equity
- 0.10x
- Current ratio
- 3.41x
- ROE
- 23.1%
- ROA
- 9.0%
- FCF margin
- 28.1%
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (USD)
Margins
Income statement · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 274.0 m | 331.5 m | 219.3 m | 247.6 m | 479.9 m | 875.3 m | SEC (XBRL)· 05 Mar 2026verified |
| Cost of revenue | 909.8 k | 14.6 m | — | — | — | — | SEC (XBRL)· 31 Mar 2022verified |
| Gross profit | 157.6 m | 179.3 m | 15.4 m | 34.8 m | 196.3 m | 444.3 m | SEC (XBRL)· 05 Mar 2026verified |
| Research & development | 557.3 k | 285.9 k | — | — | — | — | SEC (XBRL)· 31 Mar 2022verified |
| Operating income | 153.2 m | 170.3 m | -406.6 m | -31.8 m | 130.7 m | 275.6 m | SEC (XBRL)· 05 Mar 2026verified |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 5.9 m | 7.7 m | 13.1 m | 17.6 m | 19.0 m | 20.5 m | SEC (XBRL)· 05 Mar 2026verified |
| EBITDA | 159.1 m ≈ | 177.9 m ≈ | -393.5 m ≈ | -14.2 m ≈ | 149.7 m ≈ | 296.2 m ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 05 Mar 2026derived |
| Interest expense | 6.4 m | 6.2 m | 12.5 m | 16.3 m | 19.9 m | 22.2 m | SEC (XBRL)· 05 Mar 2026verified |
| Pre-tax income | 145.7 m | 169.5 m | -419.6 m | -48.5 m | 109.8 m | 244.8 m | SEC (XBRL)· 05 Mar 2026verified |
| Income tax | 181.3 k | 965.7 k | 13.1 m | -5.1 m | 15.0 m | 64.4 m | SEC (XBRL)· 05 Mar 2026verified |
| Net income | 106.0 m | 132.6 m | -424.8 m | -45.8 m | 52.1 m | 70.8 m | SEC (XBRL)· 05 Mar 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | 0.18 | 0.22 | -100.36 | -10.39 | 9.69 | 10.48 | SEC (XBRL)· 05 Mar 2026verified |
| Weighted average diluted shares | — | — | 4.2 m | 4.4 m | 5.5 m | 6.8 m | SEC (XBRL)· 05 Mar 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating income + Depreciation & amortisation.
Balance sheet · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 26.9 k | 36.1 m | 34.3 m | 22.0 m | 40.6 m | 185.6 m | SEC (XBRL)· 05 Mar 2026verified |
| Receivables | 18.3 k | 112.8 m | 57.8 m | 58.6 m | 232.4 m | — | SEC (XBRL)· 13 May 2025verified |
| Inventories | 0 | 2.8 m | 3.5 m | 3.4 m | 2.9 m | 2.9 m | SEC (XBRL)· 05 Mar 2026verified |
| Current assets | 157.1 k | 154.0 m | 98.0 m | 90.8 m | 292.5 m | 538.8 m | SEC (XBRL)· 05 Mar 2026verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | 12.4 k | 151.9 m | 82.1 m | 81.4 m | 77.9 m | 94.6 m | SEC (XBRL)· 05 Mar 2026verified |
| Goodwill | 0 | 1.1 m | 17.0 m | 17.1 m | 13.9 m | 13.9 m | SEC (XBRL)· 05 Mar 2026verified |
| Intangibles (excl. goodwill) | — | 682.6 k | 21.2 m | 20.5 m | 15.5 m | 21.2 m | SEC (XBRL)· 05 Mar 2026verified |
| Total assets | 169.9 k | 394.7 m | 431.8 m | 398.2 m | 655.3 m | 918.5 m | SEC (XBRL)· 05 Mar 2026verified |
| Accounts payable | 695.4 k | 13.6 m | 23.6 m | 18.9 m | 9.6 m | — | SEC (XBRL)· 13 May 2025verified |
| Short-term debt | — | 89.4 m | 12.5 m | 10.8 m | 14.4 m | 13.3 m | SEC (XBRL)· 05 Mar 2026verified |
| Long-term debt | 0 | 78.8 m | 23.1 m | 26.3 m | 22.5 m | 29.2 m | SEC (XBRL)· 05 Mar 2026verified |
| Current liabilities | 1.2 m | 37.7 m | 54.9 m | 58.3 m | 154.2 m | 157.9 m | SEC (XBRL)· 05 Mar 2026verified |
| Total liabilities | 1.3 m | 203.1 m | 311.4 m | 319.1 m | 466.8 m | 495.1 m | SEC (XBRL)· 05 Mar 2026verified |
| Equity | 147.4 m | 191.6 m | 120.3 m | 79.1 m | 188.5 m | 423.4 m | SEC (XBRL)· 05 Mar 2026verified |
Cash flow · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | 86.7 m | 173.4 m | 50.6 m | 1.3 m | 23.2 m | 248.1 m | SEC (XBRL)· 05 Mar 2026verified |
| Capex | 61.2 m | 36.9 m | 14.6 m | 9.5 m | 2.3 m | 2.5 m | SEC (XBRL)· 05 Mar 2026verified |
| Free cash flow | 25.5 m ≈ | 136.5 m ≈ | 36.0 m ≈ | -8.2 m ≈ | 20.8 m ≈ | 245.6 m ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 05 Mar 2026derived |
| Investing cash flow | -61.2 m | -37.0 m | -4.3 m | -11.2 m | -5.6 m | -5.2 m | SEC (XBRL)· 05 Mar 2026verified |
| Financing cash flow | -8.0 m | -125.9 m | -48.1 m | -2.3 m | 1.1 m | -97.9 m | SEC (XBRL)· 05 Mar 2026verified |
| Share repurchases | — | — | — | 0 | 0 | 5.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 05 Mar 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating cash flow − Capex.
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
Score: 91 / 100
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
score >= 65 · margin_of_safety >= 0.15 · agreement in ['high', 'medium']
Closing price
04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 1.4 bn USD
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
- Balance sheet90
- Valuation96
- Quality94
- Growth100
- Returns57
Estimated value range
The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 319.79 – 1,112.88 USD.
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Method ranges (USD per share)
— — Mid · ▏ Price
Valuation methods
- DCF (discounted cash flow)732.22 – 1,112.88 (Mid 880.07)WACC 9.2% · starting FCFF 289.9 m USD · terminal value share of EV 74%The WACC × g sensitivity gives the method's bounds; these are not probabilities.Reverse DCF: no growth between −30% and +40% justifies the price
- Peers: EV/EBITDA489.16 – 1,105.13 (Mid 895.86)15 companies used · median multiple 15.5x · quartiles 8.3x – 19.2xBAER, BR, CPAY, CSGP, EBAY, FICO, FIS, GPN, IMXI, MELI, MSCI, PRTH, PYPL, RBA, UBER
- Peers: P/E319.79 – 899.79 (Mid 530.94)23 companies used · median multiple 20.9x · quartiles 12.6x – 35.4xACN, AKAM, BR, CART, CASS, CPAY, EBAY, FICO, FIS, FISV, GRAB, IMXI, LYFT, MA, MELI, MSCI, PAYO, POWW, PRTH, PYPL, RBA, UBER, WSE
- Dividend discount (DDM)unavailable · the company pays no dividend: a dividend model needs an explicit initiation assumption
Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 4.3%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 9.3%
- Terminal growth
- 2.5%
Factor scorecard
Attractive profile · Score 91/100
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | 93.0% | 100 (vs peers) | 12% |
| Net margin · Quality | 21.2% | 77 (vs peers) | 7% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | 152.4% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 7% |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | 58.6% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 10% |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | -0.4x | 80 (vs peers) | 12% |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | 18.4x | 100 (on a fixed band) | 7% |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 5.0x | 100 (on a fixed band) | 5% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | 8.1x | 88 (vs peers) | 12% |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | 3.2x | 100 (vs peers) | 12% |
| FCF yield · Valuation | 19.5% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 10% |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | 4.0% | 57 (on a fixed band) | 7% |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet90/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
- Growth· partial100/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
- Quality94/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
- Returns· partial57/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
- Valuation96/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
NUTEX HEALTH INC. (NUTX). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2026-06-30.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 875.3 m USD in 2025; YoY growth 82.4%; net margin 21.2%; ROE 57.2%; net debt/EBITDA -0.4x.
The estimated value range is 489.16–1,105.13 USD per share (median of 3 methods, agreement: medium); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 880.07 USD, the price of 205.22 USD leaves a potential of 328.8% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of 76.7% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
olivLaw score 91/100, methodological classification: attractive profile (score, margin of safety and method agreement together; not a judgement of the right price). Groups assessed only in part: growth, returns. Not investment advice.
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- ROIC: 93.0%
- Net margin: 21.2%
- FCF conversion: 152.4%
- Revenue CAGR 3Y: 58.6%
- Net debt / EBITDA: -0.4x
- Interest coverage: 18.4x
- Current ratio: 5.0x
- P/E (TTM): 8.1x
- EV/EBITDA: 3.2x
- FCF yield: 19.5%
- The price is below the estimated value range
What contradicts it
No signal among the computed factors. That is not an absence of risk: factors without data were not assessed, and business risks (margins, inventory, demand) are in the source-based analysis.
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): EPS CAGR 3Y, Payout ratio (FCF).
Versus the vertical median
Services-Business Services, NEC (SIC 7389) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 39 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UBERUber Technologies, Inc | 142.7 bn | 15.4 | 38.4% | 17.3% | +18.3% | −20% / +24% |
| MELIMercadoLibre, Inc. | 88.2 bn | 47.3 | 27.5% | 5.3% | +39.1% | −16% / +7% |
| EBAYeBay Inc. | 54.9 bn | 27.2 | 46.6% | 16.9% | +7.9% | +51% / +205% |
| PYPLPayPal Holdings, Inc. | 50.0 bn | 11.5 | 23.8% | 13.8% | +4.3% | −4% / +4% |
| MSCIMsci Inc. | 48.2 bn | 35.7 | — | 40.3% | +9.7% | +20% / +29% |
| FISVFiserv, Inc. | 33.0 bn | 11.9 | 10.7% | 13.4% | +3.6% | +1% / −52% |
| CPAYCorpay, Inc | 27.5 bn | 25.4 | 30.5% | 22.7% | +13.9% | +42% / +74% |
| GPNGlobal Payments Inc. | 25.4 bn | — | -4.1% | -9.1% | −0.4% | +27% / −17% |
| BRBroadridge Financial Solutions, Inc. | 21.4 bn | 20.9 | 40.2% | 13.9% | +8.5% | −17% / −2% |
| RBARB Global, Inc | 17.6 bn | 39.9 | 8.8% | 10.0% | +7.2% | −3% / +49% |
| FISFidelity National Information Services, Inc. | 15.3 bn | 4.6 | 22.3% | 27.6% | +5.4% | −55% / −49% |
| FICOFair Isaac Corp | 15.1 bn | 20.3 | — | 34.1% | +15.9% | −61% / −36% |
| CARTMaplebear Inc. | 13.7 bn | 32.4 | 17.1% | 12.0% | +10.8% | +41% / +145% |
| CSGPCoStar Group, Inc. | 13.1 bn | 74.3 | 2.2% | 4.9% | +18.7% | −53% / −61% |
| AKAMAkamai Technologies, Inc | 12.3 bn | 30.9 | 8.9% | 9.5% | +5.4% | −4% / −26% |
| LYFTLyft, Inc. | 7.1 bn | 2.7 | 152.6% | 42.3% | +9.2% | −11% / +60% |
| ALITAlight, Inc. | 5.7 bn | — | -67.9% | -46.0% | −3.0% | −72% / −92% |
| FLYWFlywire Corporation | 2.7 bn | 83.8 | 4.2% | 4.8% | +26.6% | +56% / −6% |
| PAYOPayoneer Global Inc. | 2.4 bn | 49.1 | 7.1% | 4.6% | +7.7% | +24% / +38% |
| ACVACopart Inc | 1.8 bn | — | -15.1% | -7.9% | +19.2% | +16% / −21% |
| NUTXNutex Health Inc. | 1.4 bn | 8.1 | 57.2% | 21.2% | +82.4% | +62% / +432% |
| CASSCass Information Systems, Inc. | 704.7 m | 19.8 | 15.1% | 18.5% | +5.3% | +31% / +33% |
| PRTHPriority Technology Holdings, Inc. | 652.9 m | 11.6 | — | 5.6% | +8.3% | +35% / +164% |
| POWWOutdoor Holding Company | 278.4 m | 70.8 | 2.8% | 12.1% | +3.5% | +30% / +18% |
| IMXIInternational Money Express, Inc. | 251.1 m | 13.3 | 11.9% | 3.4% | −7.7% | −45% / −60% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for NUTX from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (USD)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | 138.74 Total return -32% · Per year -32% | 244.16 Total return 19% · Per year 19% | 366.24 Total return 78% · Per year 78% |
| 3 years | 164.57 Total return -20% · Per year -7% | 322.90 Total return 57% · Per year 16% | 527.38 Total return 157% · Per year 37% |
| 5 years | 195.20 Total return -5% · Per year -1% | 427.04 Total return 108% · Per year 16% | 759.43 Total return 270% · Per year 30% |
- Exit P/E± 80.73
- Net margin± 56.51
- Annual revenue growth± 42.14
- Annual dilution± 4.75
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
In brief
Nutex Health Inc. is a physician-led healthcare services company that operates micro-hospitals, specialty hospitals and outpatient departments in 12 US states, plus a population health division with IPA networks. In 2026 the company is moving from rapid revenue growth to a period in which lower arbitration costs under the No Surprises Act shape results, with total revenue of $427.2 million in the first half of 2026 3.
SWOT
Strengths
- A differentiated operating model of smaller hospitals with full emergency and inpatient services, backed by physician partners who are also co-investors.
- Strong operating cash generation in the first half of 2026 and a balance sheet with modest long-term debt.
- A high success rate in IDR arbitration, which supports revenue from hospitals operating out of network.
Weaknesses
- Heavy dependence on No Surprises Act arbitration revenue, which can swing significantly from one quarter to the next.
- Complex structures of variable interest entities and related real estate entities tied to the chief executive, which raise conflict-of-interest concerns.
- Lower revenue in 2026 compared with the prior year, after the one-off effect of the 2025 IDR improvement.
Opportunities
- Developing new micro-hospitals and IPA networks in states where the company already operates, with potential to grow patient volume.
- Direct contracts with commercial insurers, which could bring rates closer to the value of the services provided.
- Lower arbitration costs, if the vendor agreements and fee reductions remain in place, could improve margins.
Threats
- Regulatory uncertainty in applying the No Surprises Act and court rulings that could limit recoveries.
- Tighter scrutiny of Medicare Advantage risk-adjustment practices, which could raise audit and repayment costs.
- Reliance on the vendor HaloMD, which has been sued by insurers and could affect the company's reputation and results.
Risks
- Uncertainty under the No Surprises Acthigh
Changes to the federal arbitration process or court decisions could significantly reduce the amounts the company can recover and raise dispute costs.
- Litigation involving the arbitration vendormedium
The vendor HaloMD has been sued by insurers, which could damage the company's reputation and the value of its shares if the lawsuits spread.
- Conflicts of interest with the chief executivemedium
The chief executive and chairman holds interests in the real estate and physician entities, which could lead to related-party transactions that do not serve all shareholders equally.
- Large capital requirementsmedium
Hospital and IPA development plans need significant financial resources, and if operating cash flow is not sufficient the company could need additional financing.
- Regulatory and audit exposurehigh
The company operates in a heavily regulated industry, and failing to follow federal or state rules could lead to fines, operational changes or loss of licences.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- If lower arbitration costs hold, operating margins could keep improving, particularly in the hospital division, which already posts a solid operating result.
- Planned openings of new units and expansion of IPA networks could raise patient volume and diversify revenue beyond arbitration.
- Strong operating cash flow and low long-term debt could give the company flexibility to invest or reduce debt.
What would break the thesis
- Total revenue fell in 2026, and if the one-off benefit from the 2025 IDR improvement is not offset by volume growth, results could stay below the prior year.
- Arbitration recoveries depend on court decisions and changing rules, which could reduce collections if insurers do not meet their payment obligations.
- The complex structure with affiliated entities and conflicts of interest could create governance and reporting risks that weigh on investor confidence.
What to watch
- Revenue and arbitration costs after the CMS fee cut and the HaloMD amendmentQ3 2026
- Opening of the three new hospitals planned for 2026 and their effect on visit numbers2026
- Progress of the litigation involving the vendor HaloMD and its effect on the company's reputationnext 10-K
- Court rulings in the Fifth and Eleventh Circuits on enforcing IDR awards2027
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
The business
Nutex Health reports three segments: a hospital division, a population health management division and a real estate division. The hospital division develops and operates micro-hospitals, specialty hospitals and outpatient departments offering emergency, inpatient, imaging and laboratory services, with 26 facilities in 12 states at December 31, 2025 1. The population health division, through its management services organization, runs IPA networks that negotiate capitated contracts with insurers, with about 38,000 members across its IPAs at the end of 2025 1.
The model relies on partnerships with local physicians, who co-invest in hospitals and in the entities that employ clinical staff. Most hospitals operate out of network, so revenue depends heavily on the dispute resolution process under the No Surprises Act. The company links its hospitals to IPA networks in the same communities to increase patient volume.
The legal structure includes physician entities (Physician LLCs) and real estate entities consolidated as variable interest entities, because Nutex does not hold most of their equity but bears their risks and benefits. Many of these entities are owned in part or controlled by the chief executive, creating potential conflicts of interest that the company discloses in its annual report.
Segments
Hospital division
This is the main revenue source: $844.2 million in 2025, up from $449.1 million in 2024, a rise driven largely by higher rates won through arbitration and by more patient visits 1.
Population health management division
It earns capitation revenue and management fees, totaling $31.1 million in 2025 1. Revenue has been relatively stable, and the division posted a small positive operating result in the same year.
Real estate division
It holds the land and buildings leased to the hospitals. The company bought its headquarters building in December 2025 and acquired a 51% stake in an Indiana micro-hospital, while the division's operating result stayed slightly negative in 2025 1.
Market context
US national health spending grew 7.2% in 2024 to $5.3 trillion, and hospital care, the largest category, rose 9.2% to about $1.7 trillion 1. The US has about 5,112 community hospitals, roughly 35% of them in non-urban areas, which leaves room for micro-hospitals with shorter wait times 1.
CMS projects hospital spending to grow at an average of 5.5% a year from 2028 to 2033, but the pace and final size depend on regulations that could change reimbursement rates. The company notes that regulatory uncertainty weighs especially on emergency care hospitals.
Trends
- IDR process and lower arbitration costsmixed
The company has submitted 50-60% of its claims through IDR and, when decisions are made, prevails in over 85% of them. A retroactive amendment with the vendor HaloMD and a lower CMS administrative fee cut contract services expense by $52.3 million in the second quarter of 2026, and the company expects a further 25-30% reduction in normalized costs if conditions hold 3.
Competitive position
The healthcare services market is highly competitive and fragmented. The main competitors are free-standing emergency departments and large local hospital systems building micro-hospitals to expand their footprint 1. Barriers to entry are low because facilities and equipment can be leased, so other groups could enter the market.
Competition varies by region and depends on the number of facilities nearby, local reputation and physician relationships. The company believes its physician partnership and IPA model gives it an advantage, but the sources reviewed do not identify US-listed direct competitors.
- Independent free-standing emergency departments
Stand-alone emergency units that compete with micro-hospitals for patients seeking fast, accessible care.
- Large local hospital systems
Regional hospital networks that are building micro-hospitals in the communities where Nutex operates.
- Groups entering the micro-hospital market
New companies or groups that could enter the market because financial barriers are low.
- National and regional medical groups
Large and mid-sized companies that deliver care through various models and could attract patients, providers and payors.
Links, dependencies and risks
Who the company is tied to, from its own SEC filings (customers, suppliers, production, partners, competitors, countries, regulation), from the 5 %+ holders' statements (13D/13G) and from what other companies say about it. Click a node for its evidence; on a listed company the graph moves to it.
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News & filings
In the press
- Healthcare facilities operator Nutex says patient, employee data stolen in August incidentThe Record (Recorded Future) · 01 Sept 2026 · EN
- The Gentlemen come calling as Nutex confirms sensitive data theftThe Register · 01 Sept 2026 · EN
- Ransomware Gang Claims Nutex Health Data BreachSecurityWeek · 01 Sept 2026 · EN
- Sensitive Information Exposed in Nutex Health Data BreachSecurityWeek · 26 Aug 2026 · EN
- Hospital operator Nutex Health says data stolen in cyberattackBleepingComputer · 25 Aug 2026 · EN
The latest news item in our archive is from 01 Sept 2026; the newest SEC filing is from 11 Sept 2026. The press archive comes from the RSS feeds we follow and does not necessarily cover the latest event — the filings alongside do.
SEC filings
- Current report11 Sept 2026Other events · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report31 Aug 2026Material cybersecurity incident
- Current report24 Aug 2026Other events
- Current report13 Aug 2026Other events
- Current report06 Aug 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Quarterly report06 Aug 2026
- Current report21 Jul 2026Material agreement
- Current report30 Apr 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Quarterly report30 Apr 2026
- Current report23 Apr 2026Shareholder vote
Sources
- [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · SEC / Nutex Health Inc. · 05 Mar 2026
- [2] Form 10-Q, quarter ended 2026-06-30 · SEC / Nutex Health Inc. · 06 Aug 2026
- [3] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / Nutex Health Inc. · 06 Aug 2026
Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.