olivLaw · US equity research
Axalta Coating Systems Ltd. AXTA
Paints, Varnishes, Lacquers, Enamels & Allied Prods · SIC 2851 · Vertical: Chemicals and allied products (SIC 28xx)
Axalta Coating Systems is a global maker of high-performance coatings organized in two segments, Performance Coatings and Mobility Coatings. Net sales fell to 5117 million USD in 2025, while second-quarter 2026 sales rose 3 percent as an all-stock merger with AkzoNobel remains pending.
The AI analysis may be outdated: new filings came after its sources (see the «AI analysis» section).
At the close of 04 Nov 2026, Axalta Coating Systems Ltd. (AXTA) stock was 37.45 USD (+6.39% on the day), with market capitalisation 8.0 bn USD, P/E 24.2 on diluted EPS of 1.55 USD over the last 12 months, beta 1.10, 52-week range 25.44–38.19 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q3 2026): revenue of 1.3 bn USD (+1.8% YoY), net income of 95.0 m USD (−13.6% YoY), diluted EPS 0.44 USD.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
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Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 68.2
- strong (55–70)
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 31.95 – 36.40
- above the upper band · %B 1.24 · band width 13.0%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 33.98 / 32.32
- uptrend (price > SMA50 > SMA200)
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- 0.59 / 0.29
- MACD above signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | S&P 500 | vs S&P 500 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | +14.6% | −1.1% | +15.7 pp | — |
| 3 months | −1.6% | −0.5% | −1.2 pp | — |
| 6 months | +31.2% | +4.4% | +26.8 pp | — |
| Year to date | +15.9% | +12.3% | +3.6 pp | — |
| 1 year | +35.9% | +13.5% | +22.3 pp | +28.5% |
| 3 years | +27.0% | +76.4% | −49.4 pp | +48.6% |
| 5 years | +15.8% | +63.7% | −47.8 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
Latest quarter: Q3 2026 · 30 Sept 2026
Quarterly margins
Quarterly statements · USD
| Fiscal year | Q4 '24 | Q1 '25 | Q2 '25 | Q3 '25 | Q4 '25 | Q1 '26 | Q2 '26 | Q3 '26 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 1.3 bn | 1.3 bn | 1.3 bn | 1.3 bn | 1.3 bn | 1.3 bn | 1.3 bn | 1.3 bn |
| Cost of revenue | 864.0 m | 829.0 m | 848.0 m | 838.0 m | 840.0 m | 838.0 m | 881.0 m | 877.0 m |
| Research & development | 19.0 m | 17.0 m | 20.0 m | 18.0 m | 16.0 m | 18.0 m | 18.0 m | 18.0 m |
| SG&A | 216.0 m | 202.0 m | 208.0 m | 197.0 m | 198.0 m | 200.0 m | 213.0 m | 201.0 m |
| Operating income | 187.0 m | 176.0 m | 193.0 m | 204.0 m | 162.0 m | 146.0 m | 167.0 m | 165.0 m |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 73.0 m | 70.0 m | 74.0 m | 74.0 m | 77.0 m | 76.0 m | 76.0 m | 81.0 m |
| Interest expense | 47.0 m | 44.0 m | 45.0 m | 45.0 m | 42.0 m | 38.0 m | 37.0 m | 37.0 m |
| Pre-tax income | 139.0 m | 129.0 m | 143.0 m | 155.0 m | 119.0 m | 105.0 m | 134.0 m | 128.0 m |
| Income tax | 2.0 m | 30.0 m | 33.0 m | 45.0 m | 59.0 m | 14.0 m | 45.0 m | 33.0 m |
| Net income | 137.0 m | 99.0 m | 109.0 m | 110.0 m | 60.0 m | 90.0 m | 89.0 m | 95.0 m |
| Diluted EPS | 0.62 ≈ | 0.45 | 0.50 | 0.51 | 0.28 ≈ | 0.42 | 0.41 | 0.44 |
| Operating cash flow | 234.0 m | 26.0 m | 142.0 m ≈ | 137.0 m ≈ | 344.0 m | 68.0 m | 152.0 m ≈ | 135.0 m ≈ |
| Capex | 62.0 m | 43.0 m | 45.0 m ≈ | 50.0 m ≈ | 58.0 m | 50.0 m | 48.0 m ≈ | 46.0 m ≈ |
| Share repurchases | 0 | — | — | 100.0 m ≈ | 0 | — | — | 0 ≈ |
≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Today's P/E sits at the 28 percentile of its own 39-quarter history (min 13.7, median 28.3, max 248.9; quarters with earnings only).
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 4.7 bn | 4.5 bn | 3.7 bn | 4.4 bn | 4.9 bn | 5.2 bn | 5.3 bn | 5.1 bn |
| Revenue YoY | +7.3% | −4.6% | −16.6% | +18.2% | +10.6% | +6.1% | +1.8% | −3.0% |
| Net income | 207.1 m | 249.0 m | 121.6 m | 263.9 m | 192.0 m | 267.0 m | 391.0 m | 378.0 m |
| Net income YoY | +464.3% | +20.2% | −51.2% | +117.0% | −27.2% | +39.1% | +46.4% | −3.3% |
| Diluted EPS | 0.85 | 1.06 | 0.52 | 1.14 | 0.86 | 1.21 | 1.78 | 1.74 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | +466.7% | +24.7% | −50.9% | +119.2% | −24.6% | +40.7% | +47.1% | −2.2% |
| net % | 4.4% | 5.6% | 3.3% | 6.0% | 3.9% | 5.2% | 7.4% | 7.4% |
| Free cash flow | 352.7 m | 460.6 m | 427.2 m | 437.0 m | 143.0 m | 437.0 m | 436.0 m | 453.0 m |
Reported results vs expectations
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Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025
- Cash
- 657.0 m USD
- Financial debt
- 3.2 bn USD
- Net debt
- 2.5 bn USD
- Equity
- 2.4 bn USD
- Total assets
- 7.6 bn USD
- Debt / equity
- 1.34x
- Current ratio
- 2.06x
- ROE
- 17.4%
- ROA
- 5.1%
- FCF margin
- 8.9%
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (USD)
Margins
Income statement · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 3.7 bn | 4.4 bn | 4.9 bn | 5.2 bn | 5.3 bn | 5.1 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified |
| Cost of revenue | 2.5 bn | 3.0 bn | 3.5 bn | 3.6 bn | 3.5 bn | 3.4 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified |
| Gross profit | 1.3 bn ≈ | 1.4 bn ≈ | 1.4 bn ≈ | 1.6 bn ≈ | 1.8 bn ≈ | 1.8 bn ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026derived |
| Research & development | 55.2 m | 62.4 m | 66.0 m | 74.0 m | 74.0 m | 71.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified |
| SG&A | 695.0 m | 738.7 m | 772.0 m | 840.0 m | 847.0 m | 805.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified |
| Operating income | 305.5 m | 462.4 m | 423.0 m | 588.0 m | 706.0 m | 735.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 320.3 m | 316.5 m | 303.1 m | 275.6 m | 280.0 m | 295.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified |
| EBITDA | 625.8 m ≈ | 778.9 m ≈ | 726.1 m ≈ | 863.6 m ≈ | 986.0 m ≈ | 1.0 bn ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026derived |
| Interest expense | 149.9 m | 134.2 m | 139.8 m | 213.0 m | 205.0 m | 176.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified |
| Pre-tax income | 122.2 m | 340.5 m | 257.0 m | 355.0 m | 496.0 m | 546.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified |
| Income tax | 200.0 k | 76.1 m | 65.0 m | 86.0 m | 105.0 m | 167.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified |
| Net income | 121.6 m | 263.9 m | 192.0 m | 267.0 m | 391.0 m | 378.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | 0.52 | 1.14 | 0.86 | 1.21 | 1.78 | 1.74 | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified |
| Weighted average diluted shares | 236.0 m | 231.9 m | 222.3 m | 221.9 m | 220.4 m | 217.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Revenue − Cost of revenue; Operating income + Depreciation & amortisation.
Balance sheet · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 1.4 bn | 840.6 m | 645.0 m | 700.0 m | 593.0 m | 657.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified |
| Receivables | 738.3 m | 760.4 m | 909.3 m | 1.0 bn | 1.0 bn | 1.0 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified |
| Inventories | 559.9 m | 669.7 m | 829.6 m | 741.0 m | 734.0 m | 756.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified |
| Current assets | 2.9 bn | 2.6 bn | 2.7 bn | 2.8 bn | 2.7 bn | 2.8 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | 1.2 bn | 1.2 bn | 1.2 bn | 1.2 bn | 1.2 bn | 1.3 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified |
| Goodwill | 1.3 bn | 1.6 bn | 1.5 bn | 1.6 bn | 1.6 bn | 1.8 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified |
| Intangibles (excl. goodwill) | 1.1 bn | 1.3 bn | 1.1 bn | 1.1 bn | 1.1 bn | 1.1 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified |
| Total assets | 7.2 bn | 7.2 bn | 7.1 bn | 7.3 bn | 7.2 bn | 7.6 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified |
| Accounts payable | 564.4 m | 657.4 m | 733.5 m | 725.0 m | 659.0 m | 637.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified |
| Short-term debt | 54.2 m | 79.7 m | 31.0 m | 26.0 m | 20.0 m | 20.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified |
| Long-term debt | — | 3.9 bn | 3.7 bn | 3.5 bn | 3.4 bn | 3.2 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified |
| Current liabilities | 1.2 bn | 1.3 bn | 1.4 bn | 1.4 bn | 1.4 bn | 1.4 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified |
| Total liabilities | 5.7 bn | 5.7 bn | 5.6 bn | 5.5 bn | 5.3 bn | 5.2 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified |
| Equity | 1.5 bn | 1.5 bn | 1.5 bn | 1.8 bn | 2.0 bn | 2.4 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified |
Cash flow · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | 509.3 m | 558.6 m | 294.0 m | 575.0 m | 576.0 m | 649.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified |
| Capex | 82.1 m | 121.6 m | 151.0 m | 138.0 m | 140.0 m | 196.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified |
| Free cash flow | 427.2 m ≈ | 437.0 m ≈ | 143.0 m ≈ | 437.0 m ≈ | 436.0 m ≈ | 453.0 m ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026derived |
| Investing cash flow | -61.5 m | -716.0 m | -106.0 m | -206.0 m | -440.0 m | -212.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified |
| Financing cash flow | -130.9 m | -334.5 m | -369.0 m | -315.0 m | -201.0 m | -401.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified |
| Share repurchases | 26.0 m | 243.8 m | 200.0 m | 50.0 m | 100.0 m | 165.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating cash flow − Capex.
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
Risk
Valuation
olivLaw classification
Score: 64 / 100
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 8.0 bn USD
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
- Valuation77
- Returns0
- Quality72
- Balance sheet62
- Growth57
Estimated value range
The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 31.86 – 93.48 USD.
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Method ranges (USD per share)
— — Mid · ▏ Price
Valuation methods
- DCF (discounted cash flow)36.60 – 56.32 (Mid 44.19)WACC 9.0% · starting FCFF 603.2 m USD · terminal value share of EV 73%The WACC × g sensitivity gives the method's bounds; these are not probabilities.Reverse DCF: starting growth implied by the price (fading linearly to terminal growth, everything else fixed): -5.5%
- Peers: EV/EBITDA55.53 – 93.48 (Mid 88.77)12 companies used · median multiple 19.9x · quartiles 12.4x – 20.9xAMGN, CF, CHD, CL, IDXX, KVUE, LIN, LYB, PG, TEVA, VRTX, VTRS
- Peers: P/E31.86 – 66.60 (Mid 53.44)25 companies used · median multiple 34.5x · quartiles 20.6x – 43.0xABBV, ABT, ALNY, AMGN, BMY, CF, CHD, CL, DD, ECL, EXEL, IDXX, JNJ, KVUE, LIN, LLY, LYB, PFE, PG, PPG, REGN, RPRX, UTHR, VRTX, ZTS
- Dividend discount (DDM)unavailable · the company pays no dividend: a dividend model needs an explicit initiation assumption
Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 4.3%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 9.3%
- Terminal growth
- 2.5%
Factor scorecard
Neutral profile · Score 64/100
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | 20.6% | 73 (vs peers) | 11% |
| Net margin · Quality | 6.5% | 41 (vs peers) | 7% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | 148.8% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 7% |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | 1.6% | 13 (on a fixed band) | 9% |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | 26.5% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 9% |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | -0.1x | 75 (vs peers) | 11% |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | 4.2x | 41 (on a fixed band) | 7% |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 1.5x | 61 (on a fixed band) | 4% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | 24.2x | 67 (vs peers) | 11% |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | 8.3x | 87 (vs peers) | 11% |
| FCF yield · Valuation | 6.2% | 78 (on a fixed band) | 9% |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | 0.0% | 0 (on a fixed band) | 7% |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet62/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
- Growth57/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
- Quality72/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
- Returns· partial0/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
- Valuation77/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
AXALTA COATING SYSTEMS LTD. (AXTA). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2026-09-30.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 5.1 bn USD in 2025; YoY growth -3.0%; net margin 6.5%; ROE 13.6%; net debt/EBITDA -0.1x.
The estimated value range is 36.60–66.60 USD per share (median of 3 methods, agreement: medium); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 53.44 USD, the price of 37.45 USD leaves a potential of 42.7% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of 29.9% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
olivLaw score 64/100, methodological classification: neutral profile (score, margin of safety and method agreement together; not a judgement of the right price). Groups assessed only in part: returns. Not investment advice.
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- ROIC: 20.6%
- FCF conversion: 148.8%
- EPS CAGR 3Y: 26.5%
- Net debt / EBITDA: -0.1x
- EV/EBITDA: 8.3x
- FCF yield: 6.2%
What contradicts it
- Revenue CAGR 3Y: 1.6%
- Shareholder yield (distributions): 0.0%
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): Payout ratio (FCF).
Versus the vertical median
Chemicals and allied products (SIC 28xx) · same major group (2-digit SIC) · compared with 39 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LLYEli Lilly And Company | 1,334.0 bn | 46.0 | 86.1% | 31.9% | +44.7% | +32% / +140% |
| JNJJohnson & Johnson | 665.2 bn | 41.9 | 20.0% | 16.2% | +6.0% | +34% / +79% |
| ONCBeone Medicines Ltd. | 558.4 bn | 869.9 | 14.7% | 10.7% | +40.2% | +11% / +102% |
| ABBVAbbVie Inc. | 521.1 bn | 50.7 | — | 15.7% | +8.6% | +29% / +107% |
| PGPROCTER & GAMBLE Co | 387.8 bn | 25.2 | 29.4% | 18.2% | +3.3% | +13% / +9% |
| MRKMerck & Co., Inc. | 370.7 bn | 154.7 | 5.1% | 3.6% | +1.3% | +43% / +47% |
| AMGNAmgen Inc. | 258.8 bn | 27.7 | 78.4% | 24.1% | +10.0% | +39% / +77% |
| LINLinde plc | 240.9 bn | 34.9 | 18.0% | 19.3% | +3.0% | +28% / +27% |
| GILDGilead Sciences, Inc. | 216.4 bn | — | -22.3% | -12.5% | +2.4% | +39% / +128% |
| ABTAbbott Laboratories | 200.1 bn | 43.0 | 9.2% | 9.7% | +5.7% | −10% / +11% |
| PFEPfizer Inc | 175.5 bn | 43.9 | 4.4% | 6.3% | −1.6% | +20% / +1% |
| VRTXVertex Pharmaceuticals Inc | 139.2 bn | 35.3 | 20.8% | 30.7% | +8.9% | +27% / +55% |
| BMYBristol-Myers Squibb Company | 131.2 bn | 14.2 | 44.1% | 18.5% | −0.2% | +30% / +30% |
| MRNAModerna, Inc. | 103.2 bn | — | -39.0% | -141.4% | −39.9% | +895% / +233% |
| ECLEcolab Inc. | 88.4 bn | 42.9 | 20.7% | 12.0% | +2.2% | +14% / +64% |
| CLColgate-Palmolive Company | 78.5 bn | 38.7 | 358.9% | 9.6% | +1.4% | +23% / +25% |
| APDAir Products And Chemicals, Inc. | 71.0 bn | — | -0.3% | -0.4% | −0.5% | +22% / +18% |
| IDXXIdexx Laboratories Inc | 55.0 bn | 47.1 | 68.9% | 25.4% | +10.4% | −7% / +50% |
| TEVATeva Pharmaceutical Industries Limited | 48.8 bn | 97.4 | 6.6% | 3.6% | +4.3% | +56% / +326% |
| RVMDRevolution Medicines, Inc. | 43.2 bn | — | -93.6% | -946.8% | unavailable | +157% / +756% |
| BIIBBiogen Inc. | 37.6 bn | 108.8 | 1.9% | 3.4% | +2.2% | +40% / +9% |
| KVUEKenvue Inc. | 37.1 bn | 21.9 | 16.3% | 10.9% | −2.1% | +34% / +4% |
| ZTSZoetis Inc. | 36.9 bn | 14.7 | 64.4% | 27.5% | +2.3% | −30% / −50% |
| PPGPpg Industries Inc | 28.1 bn | 18.2 | 19.3% | 9.4% | +0.2% | +27% / −10% |
| ROIVRoivant Sciences Ltd. | 27.6 bn | — | -6.2% | -3,535.0% | −71.6% | +84% / +300% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for AXTA from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (USD)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | 21.63 Total return -42% · Per year -42% | 38.29 Total return 2% · Per year 2% | 57.76 Total return 54% · Per year 54% |
| 3 years | 19.77 Total return -47% · Per year -19% | 39.50 Total return 5% · Per year 2% | 65.59 Total return 75% · Per year 21% |
| 5 years | 18.07 Total return -52% · Per year -14% | 40.75 Total return 9% · Per year 2% | 74.49 Total return 99% · Per year 15% |
- Exit P/E± 9.88
- Net margin± 6.91
- Annual revenue growth± 5.84
- Annual dilution± 0.58
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 29 Jul 2026; since then the company filed 8-K (29 Oct 2026 · results), 10-Q (29 Oct 2026).
In brief
Axalta Coating Systems is a global maker of high-performance coatings organized in two segments, Performance Coatings and Mobility Coatings. Net sales fell to 5117 million USD in 2025, while second-quarter 2026 sales rose 3 percent as an all-stock merger with AkzoNobel remains pending.
SWOT
Strengths
- Strong brands, color matching technology that is hard to replicate, and a large network of independent distributors.
- High customer retention in refinish once a body shop installs a color system.
- Global footprint with production sites in many regions and capacity to serve international customers.
Weaknesses
- Dependence on refinish volumes and cyclical industrial markets.
- Sales declined in 2025 and volumes were lower in the first half of 2026.
- Significant indebtedness that requires substantial cash to service.
Opportunities
- Growing demand for eco-friendly products and coatings for electric vehicle components.
- Acquisitions in Performance Coatings that contributed in 2025 and 2026.
- If the merger closes, the combination could generate synergies and greater global scale.
Threats
- The risk that the merger is not completed, with negative effects on the share price and customers.
- Intense competition from large multinational groups and local players.
- Trade tariffs and supply chain disruptions could affect costs and margins.
Risks
- Failure of the AkzoNobel mergerhigh
If the merger is not completed, the company could face negative market reactions and pay termination fees set out in the agreement 1.
- Tariffs and trade policymedium
US tariffs and possible retaliatory measures could raise costs and reduce sales outside the US 1.
- Raw material pricesmedium
Higher raw material prices, including effects from the Middle East conflict, could reduce margins 2.
- Indebtednessmedium
Substantial debt could limit financial flexibility and access to capital on favorable terms 1.
- Reliance on large customerslow
Loss or reduced purchases from large customers could affect sales, and customer consolidation raises the risk 1.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- If growth in refinish and in Europe and Asia continues, the company could beat expectations, supported by better margins and strong cash flow.
- Leverage at the lowest level in the company's history could provide flexibility for acquisitions or capital returns.
- If the merger closes, the combination could create a more competitive global leader with synergies and value for shareholders.
What would break the thesis
- Sales fell in 2025 and volumes remained under pressure, which could continue if industrial demand weakens.
- The merger could be delayed or cancelled due to regulatory or shareholder issues, leaving the company without the expected benefits.
- Rising competition and tariff pressure could compress margins, especially if costs cannot be passed on to customers.
What to watch
- Shareholder vote on the AkzoNobel mergerAugust 2026
- Delivery against the 2026 Adjusted EBITDA outlookFY 2026
- Volume trends in Performance Coatings in Europe and AsiaQ3 2026
- Merger closing timeline and any extensions to the outside datenext 10-K
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 29 Jul 2026; since then the company filed 8-K (29 Oct 2026 · results), 10-Q (29 Oct 2026).
The business
Axalta Coating Systems Ltd. is a Bermuda exempted holding company incorporated in 2012, with over 150 years of heritage in coatings. It manufactures, markets and distributes high-performance coatings systems under well-recognized brands, backed by technical service to customers 1. It runs 42 manufacturing facilities and serves customers in over 140 countries, with around 12200 team members by mid-2026 2.
The company relies on a broad distribution network: over 5000 independent local distributors sell most products, and in parts of Europe it sells directly through company-owned stores 1. Sales and technical teams are organized by region to respond quickly to local needs.
Axalta agreed in November 2025 to an all-stock merger with AkzoNobel N.V., and shareholders are scheduled to vote at a special general meeting on August 5, 2026 3. Until completion, the company's share repurchases need AkzoNobel's consent 1.
Segments
Mobility Coatings
The Mobility Coatings segment supplies coatings for light and commercial vehicle OEMs. Sales were 1840 million USD in 2025, up 1.1 percent, with light vehicle sales at 1438 million USD 1.
Market context
The refinish market depends on vehicle collisions, insurer willingness to pay for repairs and the size of the car parc, and customers demand exact color matching. The company can match about 230000 color variations using a database of over four million formulations 1.
Industrial demand is linked to construction, automotive and industrial production, with growing interest in lower-impact products. In commercial vehicles, demand depends on global production and environmental standards 1.
Trends
- Consolidation through mergermixed
The AkzoNobel merger could create a larger global player if completed, but it depends on antitrust approvals and shareholder votes 13.
- Sustainability and low-emission productstailwind
Customers increasingly ask for environmentally friendlier products using less energy, which could support demand for the company's waterborne solutions 1.
- Tariff pressure and raw material costsheadwind
US tariffs, retaliatory trade measures and raw material prices could compress margins, and the company relies on mitigation strategies that may not fully succeed 12.
- Autonomy and new mobility modelsheadwind
Autonomous vehicles, safety systems and new travel models could reduce collision repairs and demand for some products 1.
Competitive position
Main competitors in refinish are AkzoNobel, BASF, PPG and Sherwin-Williams, while industrial markets also include multinational suppliers and many local players 1. The company says few rivals match its mix of service, color technology and performance 1.
- AkzoNobel
Competitor in refinish and industrial, and the proposed merger partner, listed outside the US
- PPG IndustriesPPG
Multinational competitor in refinish and industrial with global presence
- Sherwin-WilliamsSHW
Competitor in refinish and industrial, cited as a main rival
- BASF
Main refinish competitor, German chemicals group
Links, dependencies and risks
Who the company is tied to, from its own SEC filings (customers, suppliers, production, partners, competitors, countries, regulation), from the 5 %+ holders' statements (13D/13G) and from what other companies say about it. Click a node for its evidence; on a listed company the graph moves to it.
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News & filings
In the press
- AkzoNobel, cu fabrică și în România, oferă concesii la Bruxelles pentru fuziunea de 25 miliarde dolari cu AxaltaProfit.ro · 19 Oct 2026 · RO
The latest news item in our archive is from 19 Oct 2026; the newest SEC filing is from 29 Oct 2026. The press archive comes from the RSS feeds we follow and does not necessarily cover the latest event — the filings alongside do.
SEC filings
- Quarterly report29 Oct 2026
- Current report29 Oct 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report05 Aug 2026Shareholder vote · Other events · Financial statements and exhibits
- Quarterly report29 Jul 2026
- Current report29 Jul 2026Other events · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report28 Jul 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report23 Jul 2026Material agreement · Other events · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report04 Jun 2026Shareholder vote
- Current report28 May 2026Material agreement · Financial statements and exhibits
- Quarterly report30 Apr 2026
Sources
- [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · SEC / Axalta Coating Systems Ltd. · 13 Feb 2026
- [2] Form 10-Q, quarter ended 2026-06-30 · SEC / Axalta Coating Systems Ltd. · 29 Jul 2026
- [3] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / Axalta Coating Systems Ltd. · 28 Jul 2026
Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.