olivLaw · US equity research
Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. CMG
Retail-Eating Places · SIC 5812 · Vertical: Retail-Eating Places (SIC 5812)
Chipotle Mexican Grill runs fast-casual restaurants built on a burrito, bowl, quesadilla, taco and salad menu, with a focus on responsibly sourced ingredients and classically cooked food. The company is working through a period of pressure on comparable sales while accelerating growth, with fiscal 2025 total revenue reaching about 11.9 billion USD and digital orders making up 38.3% of food and beverage revenue in the second quarter of 2026.
The AI analysis may be outdated: new filings came after its sources (see the «AI analysis» section).
At the close of 04 Nov 2026, Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. (CMG) stock was 35.20 USD (+5.83% on the day), with market capitalisation 44.5 bn USD, P/E 32.9 on diluted EPS of 1.07 USD over the last 12 months, beta 0.80, 52-week range 27.52–40.87 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q3 2026): revenue of 3.3 bn USD (+9.6% YoY), net income of 339.9 m USD (−11.1% YoY), diluted EPS 0.27 USD.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
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Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 68.9
- strong (55–70)
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 26.46 – 34.43
- above the upper band · %B 1.10 · band width 26.2%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 32.85 / 33.97
- mixed trend
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- 0.15 / -0.66
- MACD above signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | S&P 500 | vs S&P 500 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | +14.1% | −1.1% | +15.2 pp | — |
| 3 months | +2.0% | −0.5% | +2.5 pp | — |
| 6 months | +7.5% | +4.4% | +3.1 pp | — |
| Year to date | −4.9% | +12.3% | −17.2 pp | — |
| 1 year | +10.9% | +13.5% | −2.6 pp | +4.4% |
| 3 years | −13.7% | +76.4% | −90.2 pp | −0.6% |
| 5 years | −1.9% | +63.7% | −65.6 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
Latest quarter: Q3 2026 · 30 Sept 2026
Quarterly margins
Quarterly statements · USD
| Fiscal year | Q4 '24 | Q1 '25 | Q2 '25 | Q3 '25 | Q4 '25 | Q1 '26 | Q2 '26 | Q3 '26 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 2.8 bn | 2.9 bn | 3.1 bn | 3.0 bn | 3.0 bn | 3.1 bn | 3.3 bn | 3.3 bn |
| Operating income | 415.7 m | 479.3 m | 559.1 m | 477.2 m | 420.3 m | 397.1 m | 525.6 m | 452.0 m |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 83.9 m | 87.2 m | 90.9 m | 90.5 m | 92.7 m | 96.7 m | 98.3 m | 102.6 m |
| Pre-tax income | 439.1 m | 501.5 m | 577.4 m | 497.0 m | 433.6 m | 405.8 m | 533.3 m | 457.1 m |
| Income tax | 107.3 m | 114.9 m | 141.3 m | 114.9 m | 102.7 m | 103.0 m | 129.7 m | 117.3 m |
| Net income | 331.8 m | 386.6 m | 436.1 m | 382.1 m | 330.9 m | 302.8 m | 403.5 m | 339.9 m |
| Diluted EPS | 0.24 ≈ | 0.28 | 0.32 | 0.29 | 0.25 ≈ | 0.23 | 0.32 | 0.27 |
| Operating cash flow | 526.8 m | 557.1 m | 561.3 m ≈ | 569.7 m ≈ | 425.8 m | 651.4 m | 680.7 m ≈ | 590.1 m ≈ |
| Capex | 172.9 m | 144.8 m | 160.6 m ≈ | 163.5 m ≈ | 197.5 m | 180.3 m | 217.3 m ≈ | 243.0 m ≈ |
| Share repurchases | 339.0 m | 553.8 m | 443.3 m ≈ | 686.7 m ≈ | 741.8 m | 701.0 m | 653.9 m ≈ | 110.0 m ≈ |
≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Today's P/E sits at the 84 percentile of its own 44-quarter history (min 0.6, median 1.8, max 61.6; quarters with earnings only).
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 4.9 bn | 5.6 bn | 6.0 bn | 7.5 bn | 8.6 bn | 9.9 bn | 11.3 bn | 11.9 bn |
| Revenue YoY | +8.7% | +14.8% | +7.1% | +26.1% | +14.4% | +14.3% | +14.6% | +5.4% |
| Net income | 176.6 m | 350.2 m | 355.8 m | 653.0 m | 899.1 m | 1.2 bn | 1.5 bn | 1.5 bn |
| Net income YoY | +0.2% | +98.3% | +1.6% | +83.5% | +37.7% | +36.7% | +24.9% | +0.1% |
| Diluted EPS | 6.31 | 12.38 | 12.52 | 22.90 | 0.64 | 0.89 | 1.11 | 1.14 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | +2.3% | +96.2% | +1.1% | +82.9% | −97.2% | +39.1% | +24.7% | +2.7% |
| net % | 3.6% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 8.7% | 10.4% | 12.4% | 13.6% | 12.9% |
| Free cash flow | 334.2 m | 387.7 m | 290.5 m | 839.6 m | 844.0 m | 1.2 bn | 1.5 bn | 1.4 bn |
Reported results vs expectations
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Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025
- Cash
- 350.5 m USD
- Financial debt
- 0 USD
- Net debt
- -350.5 m USD
- Equity
- 2.8 bn USD
- Total assets
- 9.0 bn USD
- Debt / equity
- 0.00x
- Current ratio
- 1.23x
- ROE
- 47.4%
- ROA
- 16.9%
- FCF margin
- 12.1%
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (USD)
Margins
Income statement · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 6.0 bn | 7.5 bn | 8.6 bn | 9.9 bn | 11.3 bn | 11.9 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 04 Feb 2026verified |
| Operating income | 290.2 m | 804.9 m | 1.2 bn | 1.6 bn | 1.9 bn | 1.9 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 04 Feb 2026verified |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 238.5 m | 254.7 m | 286.8 m | 319.4 m | 335.0 m | 361.4 m | SEC (XBRL)· 04 Feb 2026verified |
| EBITDA | 528.7 m ≈ | 1.1 bn ≈ | 1.4 bn ≈ | 1.9 bn ≈ | 2.3 bn ≈ | 2.3 bn ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 04 Feb 2026derived |
| Pre-tax income | 293.8 m | 812.8 m | 1.2 bn | 1.6 bn | 2.0 bn | 2.0 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 04 Feb 2026verified |
| Income tax | -62.0 m | 159.8 m | 282.4 m | 391.8 m | 476.1 m | 473.8 m | SEC (XBRL)· 04 Feb 2026verified |
| Net income | 355.8 m | 653.0 m | 899.1 m | 1.2 bn | 1.5 bn | 1.5 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 04 Feb 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | 12.52 | 22.90 | 0.64 | 0.89 | 1.11 | 1.14 | SEC (XBRL)· 04 Feb 2026verified |
| Weighted average diluted shares | 28.4 m | 28.5 m | 1.4 bn | 1.4 bn | 1.4 bn | 1.3 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 04 Feb 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating income + Depreciation & amortisation.
Balance sheet · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 608.0 m | 815.4 m | 384.0 m | 560.6 m | 748.5 m | 350.5 m | SEC (XBRL)· 04 Feb 2026verified |
| Receivables | 104.5 m | 99.6 m | 106.9 m | 115.5 m | 144.0 m | 156.5 m | SEC (XBRL)· 04 Feb 2026verified |
| Inventories | 26.4 m | 32.8 m | 35.7 m | 39.3 m | 48.9 m | 49.5 m | SEC (XBRL)· 04 Feb 2026verified |
| Current assets | 1.4 bn | 1.4 bn | 1.2 bn | 1.6 bn | 1.8 bn | 1.5 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 04 Feb 2026verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | 1.6 bn | 1.8 bn | 2.0 bn | 2.2 bn | 2.4 bn | 2.7 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 04 Feb 2026verified |
| Goodwill | 21.9 m | 21.9 m | 21.9 m | 21.9 m | 21.9 m | 21.9 m | SEC (XBRL)· 04 Feb 2026verified |
| Total assets | 6.0 bn | 6.7 bn | 6.9 bn | 8.0 bn | 9.2 bn | 9.0 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 04 Feb 2026verified |
| Accounts payable | 122.0 m | 163.2 m | 184.6 m | 197.6 m | 210.7 m | 212.8 m | SEC (XBRL)· 04 Feb 2026verified |
| Long-term debt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | SEC (XBRL)· 04 Feb 2026verified |
| Current liabilities | 822.2 m | 873.7 m | 921.9 m | 1.0 bn | 1.2 bn | 1.2 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 04 Feb 2026verified |
| Total liabilities | 4.0 bn | 4.4 bn | 4.6 bn | 5.0 bn | 5.5 bn | 6.2 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 04 Feb 2026verified |
| Equity | 2.0 bn † | 2.3 bn † | 2.4 bn † | 3.1 bn † | 3.7 bn † | 2.8 bn † | SEC (XBRL)· 04 Feb 2026verified |
† equity attributable to the parent's shareholders: in these years the issuer no longer reports the total including non-controlling interests.
Cash flow · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | 663.8 m | 1.3 bn | 1.3 bn | 1.8 bn | 2.1 bn | 2.1 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 04 Feb 2026verified |
| Capex | 373.4 m | 442.5 m | 479.2 m | 560.7 m | 593.6 m | 666.3 m | SEC (XBRL)· 04 Feb 2026verified |
| Free cash flow | 290.5 m ≈ | 839.6 m ≈ | 844.0 m ≈ | 1.2 bn ≈ | 1.5 bn ≈ | 1.4 bn ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 04 Feb 2026derived |
| Investing cash flow | -432.7 m | -522.0 m | -830.0 m | -946.0 m | -837.5 m | -35.1 m | SEC (XBRL)· 04 Feb 2026verified |
| Financing cash flow | -104.9 m | -548.6 m | -929.4 m | -660.7 m | -1.1 bn | -2.5 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 04 Feb 2026verified |
| Share repurchases | 54.4 m | 466.5 m | 830.1 m | 592.3 m | 1.0 bn | 2.4 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 04 Feb 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating cash flow − Capex.
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
- score weight coverage: 58.3% of at least 60%
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 44.5 bn USD
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
58% · Insufficient data
Estimated value range
The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 16.14 – 33.12 USD.
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Method ranges (USD per share)
— — Mid · ▏ Price
Valuation methods
- DCF (discounted cash flow)unavailable · input data missing
- Peers: EV/EBITDAunavailable · net debt missing: EV cannot be bridged to equity (missing debt is not zero)
- Peers: P/E16.14 – 33.12 (Mid 22.52)22 companies used · median multiple 21.0x · quartiles 15.1x – 30.9xARCO, BDL, BJRI, BLMN, CAKE, CBRL, DRI, EAT, FWRG, GTIM, JACK, LOCO, MB, MCD, NATH, PTLO, PZZA, QSR, TXRH, WING, YUM, YUMC
- Dividend discount (DDM)unavailable · the company pays no dividend: a dividend model needs an explicit initiation assumption
Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 4.3%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 9.3%
- Terminal growth
- 2.5%
Factor scorecard
Insufficient data
Minimum-evidence gate: score weight coverage: 58.3% of at least 60%
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net margin · Quality | 10.8% | 87 (vs peers) | 11% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | 109.6% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 11% |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | 11.4% | 95 (on a fixed band) | 14% |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | 21.2% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 14% |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 0.8x | 1 (on a fixed band) | 7% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | 32.9x | 35 (vs peers) | 18% |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| FCF yield · Valuation | 3.4% | 42 (on a fixed band) | 14% |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | 5.0% | 71 (on a fixed band) | 11% |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet· partial1/100 · 1/3 factors with a value
- Growth97/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
- Quality94/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
- Returns· partial71/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
- Valuation38/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
CHIPOTLE MEXICAN GRILL, INC. (CMG). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2026-09-30.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 11.9 bn USD in 2025; YoY growth 5.4%; net margin 10.8%; ROE 48.5%.
The estimated value range is 16.14–33.12 USD per share (median of 1 methods, agreement: single method); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 22.52 USD, the price of 35.20 USD leaves a potential of -36.0% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of -56.3% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
Insufficient data for a verdict (score weight coverage: 58.3% of at least 60%).
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- Net margin: 10.8%
- FCF conversion: 109.6%
- Revenue CAGR 3Y: 11.4%
- EPS CAGR 3Y: 21.2%
- Shareholder yield (distributions): 5.0%
What contradicts it
- Current ratio: 0.8x
- The price is above the estimated value range
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): ROIC, Net debt / EBITDA, Interest coverage, EV/EBITDA, Payout ratio (FCF).
Versus the vertical median
Retail-Eating Places (SIC 5812) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 39 companies
The size band was not applied: too few companies would have remained; the vertical includes much smaller or larger companies.
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MCDMcDONALD’S CORPORATION | 198.3 bn | 0.0 | — | 31.7% | +3.7% | −10% / −1% |
| YUMYum! Brands, Inc. | 45.4 bn | 20.9 | — | 25.4% | +8.8% | +9% / +32% |
| CMGChipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. | 44.5 bn | 32.9 | 48.5% | 10.8% | +5.4% | +11% / −14% |
| DRIDarden Restaurants, Inc. | 26.1 bn | 22.5 | 55.1% | 8.8% | +9.4% | +28% / +47% |
| QSRRestaurant Brands International Inc. | 24.8 bn | 18.2 | 53.8% | 20.1% | +12.2% | +8% / +10% |
| YUMCYum China Holdings, Inc. | 17.0 bn | 18.3 | 17.5% | 7.8% | +4.4% | +3% / +15% |
| TXRHTexas Roadhouse, Inc. | 12.9 bn | 31.3 | 28.1% | 6.8% | +9.4% | +12% / +75% |
| EATBrinker International, Inc. | 9.2 bn | 19.4 | 134.7% | 8.4% | +7.9% | +43% / +512% |
| CAVACAVA Group, Inc. | 7.2 bn | 109.3 | 8.3% | 4.8% | +22.4% | +27% / +82% |
| HDLSuper Hi International Holding Ltd. | 6.4 bn | 247.5 | 6.9% | 2.8% | +13.4% | −46% / unavailable |
| CAKEThe Cheesecake Factory Incorporated | 5.8 bn | 27.4 | 41.6% | 5.2% | +4.7% | +142% / +268% |
| WINGWingstop Inc. | 4.5 bn | 39.3 | — | 16.0% | +11.4% | −37% / −30% |
| CBRLCracker Barrel Old Country Store, Inc. | 1.6 bn | 50.2 | 6.7% | 1.0% | −4.7% | +143% / +5% |
| ARCOArcos Dorados Holdings Inc. | 1.5 bn | 7.0 | 33.2% | 4.5% | +4.7% | −7% / −39% |
| BJRIBj’s Restaurants, Inc. | 1.3 bn | 33.0 | 10.4% | 2.9% | +3.1% | +61% / +106% |
| SGSweetgreen, Inc. | 1.1 bn | 117.9 | 3.1% | 2.0% | +0.4% | +82% / +25% |
| BLMNBloomin’ Brands, Inc. | 939.3 m | 35.1 | 6.7% | 0.7% | +0.1% | +55% / −53% |
| FWRGFirst Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. | 833.3 m | 42.1 | 3.1% | 1.5% | +20.3% | −27% / −25% |
| PZZAPapa John’s International, Inc. | 658.1 m | 25.1 | — | 1.4% | −0.3% | −52% / −69% |
| LOCOEl Pollo Loco Holdings, Inc. | 501.2 m | 14.1 | 11.8% | 7.0% | +3.6% | +51% / +98% |
| DINDine Brands Global, Inc. | 448.6 m | 106.7 | — | 0.4% | +8.2% | +17% / −16% |
| NATHNathan's Famous, Inc. | 418.2 m | 21.1 | — | 11.8% | +9.4% | −4% / +56% |
| PTLOPortillo's Inc. | 336.8 m | 29.8 | 3.0% | 1.9% | +3.0% | +4% / −65% |
| PLAYDave & Buster’s Entertainment, Inc. | 305.8 m | — | -69.7% | -4.3% | −1.4% | −50% / −79% |
| JACKJack In The Box Inc. | 275.6 m | 8.2 | — | 2.4% | −6.7% | −27% / −80% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for CMG from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (USD)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | 22.62 Total return -36% · Per year -36% | 39.86 Total return 13% · Per year 13% | 59.87 Total return 70% · Per year 70% |
| 3 years | 25.08 Total return -29% · Per year -11% | 49.43 Total return 40% · Per year 12% | 81.07 Total return 130% · Per year 32% |
| 5 years | 27.82 Total return -21% · Per year -5% | 61.31 Total return 74% · Per year 12% | 109.77 Total return 212% · Per year 26% |
- Exit P/E± 12.36
- Net margin± 8.65
- Annual revenue growth± 6.66
- Annual dilution± 0.73
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 31 Jul 2026; since then the company filed 10-Q (29 Oct 2026), 8-K (28 Oct 2026 · results).
In brief
Chipotle Mexican Grill runs fast-casual restaurants built on a burrito, bowl, quesadilla, taco and salad menu, with a focus on responsibly sourced ingredients and classically cooked food. The company is working through a period of pressure on comparable sales while accelerating growth, with fiscal 2025 total revenue reaching about 11.9 billion USD and digital orders making up 38.3% of food and beverage revenue in the second quarter of 2026 123.
SWOT
Strengths
- A strong brand built on food quality and the Food with Integrity message, with a model in which the company owns and operates most of its restaurants in the US, Canada and Europe 13.
- A well-developed digital channel with a growing share of sales and a loyalty program that supports visit frequency and customer data 23.
- Sufficient balance sheet and funding capacity for new restaurant investment, with undrawn credit facility capacity and an ongoing share repurchase program 13.
Weaknesses
- Operating margins declined in the second quarter of 2026 under labor and ingredient cost pressure 3.
- Reliance on third-party delivery platforms can weigh on profitability, since the fee collected from the customer may be below the actual delivery cost 1.
- Comparable restaurant sales fell in fiscal 2025, showing demand sensitivity to the economic environment and consumer confidence 1.
Opportunities
- International expansion, including partner-operated restaurants in the Middle East, Asia and Mexico, could add growth without taking on all the operational risk 2.
- Menu innovation and group-occasion offerings could open new consumption occasions in restaurants 3.
- Technology modernization and the use of AI in operations could lower costs and improve the guest experience 1.
Risks
- Food safetyhigh
A food-borne illness incident, whether real or rumored, could hurt reputation and sales, and incidents at competitors or suppliers can also shape public perception of the whole industry 1.
- Workforce and wage regulationhigh
Hiring difficulties, scheduling and minimum wage legislation, and possible union organizing could raise costs and reduce operational flexibility 1.
- Competition and differentiationmedium
Competitors increasingly make claims about ingredient quality, which could weaken the brand's differentiation if not backed by execution 1.
- Dependence on third-party deliverymedium
Changes in platform fees or ranking priorities could reduce sales and margins in a delivery channel the company does not control 1.
- Commodity costs and tariffsmedium
Inflation in beef, freight and tariffs could raise food costs, and the company may not fully offset them through menu prices 13.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- Rising transactions in the second quarter and a growing digital channel could show that the Recipe for Growth strategy is starting to work, if the trend holds 23.
- A large planned opening program for 2026, with a high share of Chipotlanes, could support revenue growth over the medium term 13.
- A solid balance sheet and self-funding capacity could allow continued investment and share repurchases if market conditions stay favorable 13.
What would break the thesis
- Margin pressure visible in the second quarter could persist if labor and ingredient costs stay elevated 3.
- The consumer environment the company describes as dynamic could weaken comparable sales further, especially if new food safety concerns or geopolitical tensions emerge 2.
- The aggressive pace of restaurant openings could make recruiting and training staff harder, affecting service quality and guest satisfaction 1.
What to watch
- Comparable restaurant sales versus full-year 2026 guidance of low single-digit growthQ3 2026
- Restaurant level operating margin and the trajectory of labor and ingredient costsQ3 2026
- Pace of restaurant openings against the 2026 target range and the share with Chipotlanes2026
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 31 Jul 2026; since then the company filed 10-Q (29 Oct 2026), 8-K (28 Oct 2026 · results).
The business
The company reports one operating segment, and revenue comes from restaurant sales with a small amount of delivery service revenue 1. Digital channels, including Chipotlanes drive-through pick-up lanes for digital orders, are a growth driver, and the company is investing in technology for back-of-house operations and in the Chipotle Rewards program 13. Chipotle employed 130,301 people worldwide as of December 31, 2025 1.
The ownership model is mixed: restaurants in Canada, the United Kingdom, France and Germany are company-owned, while those in the Middle East are operated by partners, over which Chipotle does not hold a controlling financial interest 13. This combination lets the company expand into new markets without taking on the full operational risk of each one 1.
Segments
International restaurants
Beyond the US, the company operates company-owned restaurants in Canada, the United Kingdom, France and Germany, and partner-operated restaurants in the Middle East, which allow expansion with lower risk in new markets 12. Their share of revenue is small compared with US operations.
Third-party delivery revenue
Third-party delivery platforms accounted for over 16% of food and beverage revenue in 2025, highlighting dependence on external aggregators and pressure on margins 1.
Market context
The fast-casual, quick-service and casual dining segments are highly competitive, with rivals competing on taste, price, food quality, service, location and brand, from national and regional chains to locally owned restaurants 1. Delivery services that offer meals from many restaurants add to competitive pressure 1.
On sales, comparable restaurant sales grew 2.2% in the second quarter of 2026 after a 1.7% decline in fiscal 2025, which points to a recovery but also to demand that remains sensitive to the economic environment 13.
Trends
- Recovering transactionstailwind
Transactions turned positive in the second quarter of 2026, which the company describes as a second consecutive quarter of improving transaction comps, supported by menu innovation and its loyalty program 23.
- Digital ordering growthtailwind
The digital share of sales keeps rising, with the app, website and Chipotlanes contributing, which could support visit frequency 13.
- Labor cost pressureheadwind
Labor costs rose as a share of revenue on wage inflation and performance bonuses, which could limit margins if the trend continues 13.
- Ingredient inflation and tariffsmixed
Food and packaging costs are affected by beef and freight inflation and by tariffs; the company estimates ongoing tariff impact that could vary with future policy changes 13.
Competitive position
Competition includes locally owned restaurants, national and regional chains, and formats that also claim higher-quality ingredients without artificial flavors, colors or preservatives, which makes differentiation harder 1. Delivery services, meal kits and ghost kitchens are indirect competitors 1.
Chipotle's advantage depends on keeping its brand distinct and on operational execution, since many competitors make similar claims about ingredient quality 1. If that differentiation erodes, competitive pressure could weigh on sales and profitability.
- Fast-casual restaurants with premium ingredient claims
Formats that claim higher-quality ingredients without artificial flavors, colors or preservatives, named as main competitors 1.
- National and regional restaurant chains
Compete on price, service, location and experience across fast-casual and quick-service formats 1.
- Locally owned independent restaurants
Direct competition on taste and price, especially in urban and college areas 1.
- Food delivery services
Indirect competitors that can steer customers toward other restaurants through paid placement and reviews 1.
Links, dependencies and risks
Who the company is tied to, from its own SEC filings (customers, suppliers, production, partners, competitors, countries, regulation), from the 5 %+ holders' statements (13D/13G) and from what other companies say about it. Click a node for its evidence; on a listed company the graph moves to it.
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News & filings
In the press
- American burrito chain Chipotle will open at Jewel Changi Airport in 2027CNA (Channel NewsAsia) · 01 Nov 2026 · EN
- Starbucks Could Become a Multi-Brand Company, CEO SaysBloomberg Markets · 30 Oct 2026 · EN
- Starbucks CEO Is Focused on Growth Plan, FundamentalsBloomberg Markets · 30 Oct 2026 · EN
- Chipotle Sales Beat as New Chicken, Chips Bring Diners BackBloomberg Markets · 29 Oct 2026 · EN
- Stocks making the biggest moves midday: ADT, Alphabet, Caterpillar, Eli Lilly, Chipotle & moreCNBC — Top News · 29 Oct 2026 · EN
- Stocks making the biggest moves after hours: Alphabet, Microsoft, Chipotle, ServiceNow, Fortinet & moreCNBC — Top News · 28 Oct 2026 · EN
- Chipotle expects modestly higher sales this year as drive-thru ‘Chipotlanes’ come to more storesMarketWatch — Top Stories · 28 Oct 2026 · EN
- Chipotle Mexican Grill is about to report earnings. Here's what to expectCNBC — Top News · 28 Oct 2026 · EN
- Traders are betting big against this restaurant giant into earningsCNBC — Top News · 28 Oct 2026 · EN
- How to double-, triple- or even quadruple-dip on dining rewardsThe Points Guy · 23 Oct 2026 · EN
- Restaurant earnings will test whether owning more brands pays offCNBC — Top News · 23 Oct 2026 · EN
- Chipotle’s Softening Sales Force Analyst to Throw in the TowelBloomberg Markets · 23 Oct 2026 · EN
- TD Cowen Analyst on Chipotle DowngradeBloomberg Markets · 22 Oct 2026 · EN
- Amtrak Guest Rewards guide: How to earn and redeem pointsThe Points Guy · 19 Oct 2026 · EN
- Starbucks Says It’s Not Buying ChipotleBloomberg Markets · 14 Oct 2026 · EN
- Nasdaq и S&P 500 снизились в понедельник, Dow Jones выросInterfax Russia (RU) · 13 Oct 2026 · RU
- Nasdaq и S&P 500 снизились в понедельник, Dow Jones выросInterfax Russia (RU) · 13 Oct 2026 · RU
- Cramer: Starbucks tells me Chipotle takeover won't happen and that's good for the stockCNBC — Top News · 12 Oct 2026 · EN
- Starbucks опровергла информацию о планах купить Chipotle Mexican GrillInterfax Russia (RU) · 12 Oct 2026 · RU
- Starbucks says it is not buying Chipotle after takeover speculationCNBC — Top News · 12 Oct 2026 · EN
SEC filings
- Quarterly report29 Oct 2026
- Current report28 Oct 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report14 Sept 2026Departure or appointment of officers · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report05 Aug 2026Regulation FD disclosure
- Quarterly report31 Jul 2026
- Current report29 Jul 2026Results of operations · Other events · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report08 Jul 2026Other events
- Current report17 Jun 2026Shareholder vote
- Quarterly report30 Apr 2026
- Current report29 Apr 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
Sources
- [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · SEC / Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. · 04 Feb 2026
- [2] Form 10-Q, quarter ended 2026-06-30 · SEC / Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. · 31 Jul 2026
- [3] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. · 29 Jul 2026
Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.