olivLaw · US equity research
Wingstop Inc. WING
Retail-Eating Places · SIC 5812 · Vertical: Retail-Eating Places (SIC 5812)
Wingstop is the largest fast casual restaurant chain focused on chicken wings in the world, operating almost entirely through franchisees under an asset-light model. Amid pressured consumer spending, the company reported in the second quarter of 2026 a decline in domestic same store sales, while system growth continued, with the system exceeding 3,255 restaurants on June 27, 2026.
The AI analysis may be outdated: new filings came after its sources (see the «AI analysis» section).
At the close of 04 Nov 2026, Wingstop Inc. (WING) stock was 167.62 USD (+3.74% on the day), with market capitalisation 4.5 bn USD, P/E 39.3 on diluted EPS of 4.26 USD over the last 12 months, dividend yield 0.73%, beta 0.99, 52-week range 97.84–284.66 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q3 2026): revenue of 185.1 m USD (+5.3% YoY), net income of 29.1 m USD (+2.2% YoY), diluted EPS 1.07 USD.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
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Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 79.6
- overbought (≥ 70)
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 103.35 – 164.04
- above the upper band · %B 1.06 · band width 45.4%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 118.02 / 161.75
- mixed trend
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- 11.77 / 7.60
- MACD above signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | S&P 500 | vs S&P 500 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | +56.9% | −1.1% | +58.0 pp | — |
| 3 months | +35.3% | −0.5% | +35.8 pp | — |
| 6 months | +15.3% | +4.4% | +10.9 pp | — |
| Year to date | −29.7% | +12.3% | −42.0 pp | — |
| 1 year | −29.4% | +13.5% | −42.9 pp | +8.3% |
| 3 years | −19.0% | +76.4% | −95.4 pp | −0.6% |
| 5 years | +0.5% | +63.7% | −63.1 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
Latest quarter: Q3 2026 · 26 Sept 2026
Quarterly margins
Quarterly statements · USD
| Fiscal year | Q4 '24 | Q1 '25 | Q2 '25 | Q3 '25 | Q4 '25 | Q1 '26 | Q2 '26 | Q3 '26 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 161.8 m | 171.1 m | 174.3 m | 175.7 m | 175.7 m | 183.7 m | 185.6 m | 185.1 m |
| Cost of revenue | 23.3 m | 22.8 m | 24.4 m | 24.3 m | 24.5 m | 24.7 m | 25.1 m | 27.2 m |
| SG&A | 31.2 m | 31.4 m | 32.9 m | 30.7 m | 33.3 m | 34.4 m | 30.2 m | 30.5 m |
| Operating income | 41.8 m | 38.3 m | 45.2 m | 49.0 m | 46.8 m | 50.4 m | 54.6 m | 50.7 m |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 5.9 m | 6.2 m | 6.2 m | 6.2 m | 6.4 m | 6.8 m | 7.2 m | 9.0 m |
| Pre-tax income | 36.7 m | 123.2 m | 36.8 m | 39.6 m | 37.6 m | 40.6 m | 44.7 m | 40.0 m |
| Income tax | 10.0 m | 30.9 m | 10.0 m | 11.2 m | 10.8 m | 10.7 m | 13.4 m | 10.9 m |
| Net income | 26.8 m | 92.3 m | 26.8 m | 28.5 m | 26.8 m | 29.9 m | 31.3 m | 29.1 m |
| Diluted EPS | 0.92 ≈ | 3.24 | 0.96 | 1.02 | 0.96 ≈ | 1.08 | 1.15 | 1.07 |
| Operating cash flow | 7.7 m | 25.3 m | 6.6 m ≈ | 63.9 m ≈ | 57.3 m | 61.4 m | 6.9 m ≈ | 61.3 m ≈ |
| Capex | 16.4 m | 8.0 m | 14.4 m ≈ | 2.2 m ≈ | 22.8 m | 17.7 m | 18.2 m ≈ | 11.6 m ≈ |
| Dividends paid | 7.9 m | 8.0 m | 7.6 m ≈ | 8.4 m ≈ | 8.4 m | 8.5 m | 8.2 m ≈ | 8.9 m ≈ |
| Share repurchases | 250.5 m | 120.8 m | 0 ≈ | 40.0 m ≈ | 61.1 m | 78.5 m | 0 ≈ | 25.2 m ≈ |
≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Today's P/E sits at the 8 percentile of its own 40-quarter history (min 23.2, median 86.8, max 184.2; quarters with earnings only).
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 153.2 m | 199.7 m | 248.8 m | 282.5 m | 357.5 m | 460.1 m | 625.8 m | 696.9 m |
| Revenue YoY | +14.9% | +30.4% | +24.6% | +13.5% | +26.6% | +28.7% | +36.0% | +11.4% |
| Net income | 21.7 m | 20.5 m | 23.3 m | 42.7 m | 52.9 m | 70.2 m | 108.7 m | 174.3 m |
| Net income YoY | −9.3% | −5.7% | +13.8% | +83.0% | +24.1% | +32.5% | +54.9% | +60.3% |
| Diluted EPS | 0.73 | 0.69 | 0.78 | 1.42 | 1.77 | 2.35 | 3.70 | 6.21 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | −11.0% | −5.5% | +13.0% | +82.1% | +24.6% | +32.8% | +57.4% | +67.8% |
| net % | 14.2% | 10.3% | 9.4% | 15.1% | 14.8% | 15.3% | 17.4% | 25.0% |
| Free cash flow | 34.8 m | 16.1 m | 59.5 m | 20.9 m | 52.3 m | 80.8 m | 105.7 m | 105.6 m |
Reported results vs expectations
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Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2025 · 27 Dec 2025
- Cash
- 196.6 m USD
- Financial debt
- 1.2 bn USD
- Net debt
- 1.0 bn USD
- Equity
- -736.8 m USD
- Total assets
- 693.4 m USD
- Debt / equity
- unavailable
- Current ratio
- 3.26x
- ROE
- unavailable
- ROA
- 24.7%
- FCF margin
- 15.2%
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (USD)
Margins
Income statement · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 248.8 m | 282.5 m | 357.5 m | 460.1 m | 625.8 m | 696.9 m | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified |
| Cost of revenue | 48.6 m | 57.4 m | 63.4 m | 70.6 m | 91.6 m | 96.1 m | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified |
| Gross profit | 200.2 m ≈ | 225.1 m ≈ | 294.1 m ≈ | 389.4 m ≈ | 534.2 m ≈ | 600.8 m ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026derived |
| SG&A | 61.1 m | 62.9 m | 67.1 m | 96.9 m | 116.8 m | 128.4 m | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified |
| Operating income | 57.4 m | 73.8 m | 91.9 m | 112.6 m | 165.6 m | 179.3 m | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 7.5 m | 7.9 m | 10.9 m | 13.2 m | 19.5 m | 25.1 m | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified |
| EBITDA | 64.9 m ≈ | 81.7 m ≈ | 102.8 m ≈ | 125.8 m ≈ | 185.1 m ≈ | 204.4 m ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026derived |
| Pre-tax income | 26.9 m | 58.9 m | 69.3 m | 94.3 m | 147.2 m | 237.2 m | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified |
| Income tax | 3.6 m | 16.2 m | 16.4 m | 24.1 m | 38.5 m | 62.9 m | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified |
| Net income | 23.3 m | 42.7 m | 52.9 m | 70.2 m | 108.7 m | 174.3 m | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | 0.78 | 1.42 | 1.77 | 2.35 | 3.70 | 6.21 | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified |
| Weighted average diluted shares | 29.8 m | 29.9 m | 30.0 m | 29.9 m | 29.4 m | 28.1 m | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified |
| Dividend per share | 5.50 | 0.62 | 0.72 | 0.82 | 0.98 | 1.14 | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Revenue − Cost of revenue; Operating income + Depreciation & amortisation.
Balance sheet · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 40.9 m | 48.6 m | 184.5 m | 90.2 m | 315.9 m | 196.6 m | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified |
| Receivables | 4.9 m | 7.0 m | 9.5 m | 12.4 m | 19.7 m | 20.8 m | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified |
| Inventories | 396.0 k | 484.0 k | 389.0 k | 535.0 k | — | — | SEC (XBRL)· 21 Feb 2024verified |
| Current assets | 72.6 m | 70.1 m | 226.7 m | 144.3 m | 395.6 m | 267.5 m | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | 27.9 m | 54.5 m | 66.9 m | 91.3 m | 126.0 m | 130.6 m | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified |
| Goodwill | 53.7 m | 56.9 m | 62.5 m | 67.7 m | 74.7 m | 83.9 m | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified |
| Intangibles (excl. goodwill) | 49.3 m | 46.2 m | 46.1 m | 48.7 m | 52.1 m | 56.9 m | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified |
| Total assets | 211.6 m | 249.2 m | 424.2 m | 377.8 m | 716.2 m | 693.4 m | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified |
| Accounts payable | 3.7 m | 5.4 m | 5.2 m | 4.7 m | 6.9 m | 12.8 m | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified |
| Short-term debt | 3.6 m | 0 | 7.3 m | 0 | 0 | 0 | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified |
| Long-term debt | 466.9 m | 469.4 m | 706.8 m | 712.3 m | 1.2 bn | 1.2 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified |
| Current liabilities | 50.5 m | 39.7 m | 62.4 m | 71.0 m | 87.4 m | 82.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified |
| Total liabilities | 552.9 m | 558.7 m | 815.1 m | 835.2 m | 1.4 bn | 1.4 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified |
| Equity | -341.3 m † | -309.5 m † | -390.9 m † | -457.4 m † | -675.6 m † | -736.8 m † | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified |
† equity attributable to the parent's shareholders: in these years the issuer no longer reports the total including non-controlling interests.
Cash flow · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | 65.5 m | 48.9 m | 76.2 m | 121.6 m | 157.6 m | 153.1 m | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified |
| Capex | 6.1 m | 28.0 m | 23.9 m | 40.8 m | 51.9 m | 47.4 m | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified |
| Free cash flow | 59.5 m ≈ | 20.9 m ≈ | 52.3 m ≈ | 80.8 m ≈ | 105.7 m ≈ | 105.6 m ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026derived |
| Investing cash flow | -8.0 m | -29.9 m | -28.7 m | -52.2 m | -62.5 m | -17.5 m | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified |
| Financing cash flow | -19.4 m | -23.4 m | 103.3 m | -155.5 m | 144.8 m | -266.7 m | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified |
| Dividends paid | 163.8 m | 19.8 m | 141.3 m | 24.9 m | 28.9 m | 32.4 m | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified |
| Share repurchases | — | 0 | 0 | 125.4 m | 314.7 m | 221.9 m | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating cash flow − Capex.
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
Score: 57 / 100
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 4.5 bn USD
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
- Balance sheet40
- Valuation18
- Quality96
- Growth100
- Returns78
Estimated value range
The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 14.98 – 138.47 USD.
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Method ranges (USD per share)
— — Mid · ▏ Price
Valuation methods
- DCF (discounted cash flow)unavailable · input data missing
- Peers: EV/EBITDA20.21 – 85.52 (Mid 42.87)24 companies used · median multiple 9.8x · quartiles 7.1x – 14.7xARCO, ARMK, BDL, BJRI, BLMN, CAKE, CBRL, DRI, FWRG, GTIM, LOCO, MCD, NATH, NDLS, PLAY, PTLO, PZZA, QSR, RICK, RRGB, STKS, TXRH, YUM, YUMC
- Peers: P/E77.37 – 138.47 (Mid 93.05)22 companies used · median multiple 21.8x · quartiles 18.1x – 32.5xARCO, ARMK, BDL, BJRI, BLMN, CAKE, CBRL, CMG, DRI, EAT, FWRG, GTIM, JACK, LOCO, MCD, NATH, PTLO, PZZA, QSR, TXRH, YUM, YUMC
- Dividend discount (DDM)14.98 – 20.15 (Mid 17.18)
Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 4.3%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 9.3%
- Terminal growth
- 2.5%
Factor scorecard
Neutral profile · Score 57/100
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net margin · Quality | 16.0% | 92 (vs peers) | 8% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | 99.6% | 99 (on a fixed band) | 8% |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | 24.9% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 10% |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | 52.0% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 10% |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | 4.8x | 16 (vs peers) | 13% |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 2.1x | 100 (on a fixed band) | 5% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | 39.3x | 20 (vs peers) | 13% |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | 24.3x | 4 (vs peers) | 13% |
| FCF yield · Valuation | 2.6% | 32 (on a fixed band) | 10% |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | 4.4% | 63 (on a fixed band) | 8% |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | 29.1% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 5% |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet40/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
- Growth100/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
- Quality96/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
- Returns78/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
- Valuation18/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
Memo
WINGSTOP INC. (WING). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2026-09-26.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 696.9 m USD in 2025; YoY growth 11.4%; net margin 16.0%; net debt/EBITDA 4.8x.
The estimated value range is 20.21–85.52 USD per share (median of 3 methods, agreement: low); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 42.87 USD, the price of 167.62 USD leaves a potential of -74.4% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of -291.0% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
olivLaw score 57/100, methodological classification: neutral profile (score, margin of safety and method agreement together; not a judgement of the right price). Not investment advice.
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- Net margin: 16.0%
- FCF conversion: 99.6%
- Revenue CAGR 3Y: 24.9%
- EPS CAGR 3Y: 52.0%
- Current ratio: 2.1x
- Payout ratio (FCF): 29.1%
What contradicts it
- Net debt / EBITDA: 4.8x
- P/E (TTM): 39.3x
- EV/EBITDA: 24.3x
- The price is above the estimated value range
- The valuation methods diverge
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): ROIC, Interest coverage.
Versus the vertical median
Retail-Eating Places (SIC 5812) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 39 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MCDMcDONALD’S CORPORATION | 198.3 bn | 0.0 | — | 31.7% | +3.7% | −10% / −1% |
| YUMYum! Brands, Inc. | 45.4 bn | 20.9 | — | 25.4% | +8.8% | +9% / +32% |
| CMGChipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. | 44.5 bn | 32.9 | 48.5% | 10.8% | +5.4% | +2% / −20% |
| DRIDarden Restaurants, Inc. | 26.1 bn | 22.5 | 55.1% | 8.8% | +9.4% | +28% / +47% |
| QSRRestaurant Brands International Inc. | 24.8 bn | 18.2 | 53.8% | 20.1% | +12.2% | +8% / +10% |
| YUMCYum China Holdings, Inc. | 17.0 bn | 18.3 | 17.5% | 7.8% | +4.4% | +3% / +15% |
| ARMKAramark | 13.8 bn | 36.7 | 11.8% | 1.9% | +6.4% | +41% / +87% |
| TXRHTexas Roadhouse, Inc. | 12.9 bn | 31.3 | 28.1% | 6.8% | +9.4% | +12% / +75% |
| EATBrinker International, Inc. | 9.2 bn | 19.4 | 134.7% | 8.4% | +7.9% | +43% / +512% |
| CAVACAVA Group, Inc. | 7.2 bn | 109.3 | 8.3% | 4.8% | +22.4% | +27% / +82% |
| CAKEThe Cheesecake Factory Incorporated | 5.8 bn | 27.4 | 41.6% | 5.2% | +4.7% | +142% / +268% |
| WINGWingstop Inc. | 4.5 bn | 39.3 | — | 16.0% | +11.4% | −29% / −19% |
| CBRLCracker Barrel Old Country Store, Inc. | 1.6 bn | 50.2 | 6.7% | 1.0% | −4.7% | +143% / +5% |
| ARCOArcos Dorados Holdings Inc. | 1.5 bn | 7.0 | 33.2% | 4.5% | +4.7% | −7% / −39% |
| BJRIBj’s Restaurants, Inc. | 1.3 bn | 33.0 | 10.4% | 2.9% | +3.1% | +61% / +106% |
| SGSweetgreen, Inc. | 1.1 bn | 117.9 | 3.1% | 2.0% | +0.4% | +82% / +25% |
| BLMNBloomin’ Brands, Inc. | 939.3 m | 35.1 | 6.7% | 0.7% | +0.1% | +55% / −53% |
| FWRGFirst Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. | 833.3 m | 42.1 | 3.1% | 1.5% | +20.3% | −27% / −25% |
| PZZAPapa John’s International, Inc. | 658.1 m | 25.1 | — | 1.4% | −0.3% | −52% / −69% |
| LOCOEl Pollo Loco Holdings, Inc. | 501.2 m | 14.1 | 11.8% | 7.0% | +3.6% | +51% / +98% |
| DINDine Brands Global, Inc. | 448.6 m | 106.7 | — | 0.4% | +8.2% | +17% / −16% |
| NATHNathan's Famous, Inc. | 418.2 m | 21.1 | — | 11.8% | +9.4% | −4% / +56% |
| PTLOPortillo's Inc. | 336.8 m | 29.8 | 3.0% | 1.9% | +3.0% | +4% / −65% |
| PLAYDave & Buster’s Entertainment, Inc. | 305.8 m | — | -69.7% | -4.3% | −1.4% | −50% / −79% |
| JACKJack In The Box Inc. | 275.6 m | 8.2 | — | 2.4% | −6.7% | −27% / −80% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for WING from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (USD)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | 111.16 Total return -33% · Per year -33% | 195.62 Total return 18% · Per year 18% | 293.43 Total return 76% · Per year 76% |
| 3 years | 131.85 Total return -19% · Per year -7% | 258.71 Total return 57% · Per year 16% | 422.54 Total return 156% · Per year 37% |
| 5 years | 156.39 Total return -3% · Per year -1% | 342.14 Total return 110% · Per year 16% | 608.45 Total return 271% · Per year 30% |
- Exit P/E± 64.68
- Net margin± 45.27
- Annual revenue growth± 33.77
- Annual dilution± 3.80
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 29 Jul 2026; since then the company filed 8-K (28 Oct 2026 · results), 10-Q (28 Oct 2026).
In brief
Wingstop is the largest fast casual restaurant chain focused on chicken wings in the world, operating almost entirely through franchisees under an asset-light model. Amid pressured consumer spending, the company reported in the second quarter of 2026 a decline in domestic same store sales, while system growth continued, with the system exceeding 3,255 restaurants on June 27, 2026.
SWOT
Strengths
- Asset-light model with almost all restaurants franchised, supporting solid operating margins and low capital requirements 1.
- Brand recognition focused on wings, with a proprietary flavor range that differentiates the offer 1.
- High digital sales and a proprietary digital platform that support order frequency and customer loyalty 13.
Weaknesses
- Dependence on domestic same store sales, which declined in fiscal 2025 and in the first half of 2026 12.
- Revenue based mostly on royalties, so financial health depends on franchisees' ability to pay 1.
- Purchasing concentrated on chicken, the largest cost item, exposes the company to raw material price swings 1.
Opportunities
- Potential for expansion in the domestic and international markets, supported by a development pipeline of existing commitments 1.
- The Club Wingstop program and investments in value and flavor innovation could deepen customer relationships 3.
- International markets run by master franchisees could add volume if the model transfers successfully to new countries 1.
Risks
- Decline in same store saleshigh
Domestic same store sales declined in fiscal 2025 and in the first half of 2026, and 2026 guidance anticipates a further decline; if the trend continues, royalty revenue could be affected 23.
- Dependence on franchiseeshigh
Revenue depends heavily on franchisee royalties, and an insolvent or non-paying franchisee could affect results 1.
- Franchisee access to financingmedium
Network growth depends on franchisees' ability to obtain credit at reasonable cost, and the company does not provide direct financing 1.
- Food safetymedium
Food-borne illness or contamination incidents could damage the brand and could force temporary restaurant closures 1.
- Raw material and labor costsmedium
Chicken and wages are major costs, and minimum wage increases could raise costs for franchisees and suppliers 1.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- If the network keeps growing at the guided pace, royalty revenue could rise even with weak same store sales 23.
- The asset-light model and high franchisee returns could support growth without large capital spending 1.
- High digital sales and loyalty programs could support order frequency when consumer spending recovers 13.
What would break the thesis
- Declines in domestic same store sales could continue if pressure on consumer spending persists, limiting profit growth 23.
- Dependence on franchisees and their financing could slow restaurant openings if credit conditions worsen 1.
- Intense competition and chicken costs could compress margins, especially if larger competitors intensify promotions 1.
What to watch
- Trend of domestic same store sales against the guided decline of 4% to 6%Q3 2026
- Number of net openings and pace of global unit growth2026
- Cost of sales margin and evolution of chicken pricesQ3 2026
- Results of the Club Wingstop program and value investmentsnext 10-K
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 29 Jul 2026; since then the company filed 8-K (28 Oct 2026 · results), 10-Q (28 Oct 2026).
The business
Wingstop operates and franchises restaurants serving made-to-order wings, tenders and chicken sandwiches in 12 distinctive flavors. The company is primarily a franchisor: according to the 10-K for fiscal 2025, approximately 98% of restaurants are owned and operated by independent franchisees 1. Revenue comes from royalties, franchise fees and advertising fees, with a small number of company-owned restaurants added.
The economic model relies on low capital investment by the company and high returns for franchisees: domestic AUV was approximately 2,0 million USD in fiscal 2025, and the company targets a franchisee unlevered cash-on-cash return of 70%+ in year two of operation 1. The international network is also franchised and covers 18 countries and U.S. territories 1.
The stated strategy focuses on sustaining same store sales growth, maintaining best-in-class returns and expanding the global footprint, with the goal of becoming a Top 10 Global Restaurant Brand 13. The national launch of Club Wingstop and investments in Smart Kitchen are presented by management as steps in this direction 3.
Segments
Market context
The market is that of fast casual restaurants with a chicken-focused offer, where competition is intense on taste, price, convenience and digital experience 1. The company reports that digital sales represented 71.6% of system-wide sales in the second quarter of 2026, compared with over 60% noted earlier, indicating demand concentrated on online channels 13.
System growth depends on new openings by franchisees, and management says all domestic development commitments come from existing franchisees 1. If demand remains weak, same store sales could continue to limit revenue growth even with an expanding network 23.
Trends
- Pressured consumer spendingheadwind
The company attributes the decline in domestic same store sales to continued pressure on consumer spending, with lower transaction volumes 3. If this trend persists, royalty revenue could remain below expectations.
- Network expansiontailwind
The number of restaurants grows quickly, with 102 net openings in the second quarter of 2026 and guidance for global unit growth of 15% to 16% 23. This growth could partly offset the decline in same store sales.
- Digital orderingtailwind
Digital sales stayed high, reaching 71.6% of system-wide sales in the second quarter of 2026 3. The proprietary digital platform and integration with delivery providers support order frequency 1.
- Chicken costs and wagesmixed
Chicken is the largest product cost, about 57.2% of purchases in fiscal 2025 1. Lower bone-in wing costs reduced cost of sales in the second quarter of 2026, but minimum wage increases could pressure franchisee and supplier costs 13.
Competitive position
Wingstop competes with independent restaurants, national and regional chains, including those offering chicken wings and sandwiches, and also with grocery store cafés and home meal delivery services 1. The company notes that competitors could copy its business model, menu or marketing 1.
The stated advantage lies in its wing specialization, flavor range and large franchisee network, while competitors may have greater financial resources, better locations or a more diverse menu 1. Competitive intensity could increase as new players enter the market 1.
- Chicken wing and chicken sandwich restaurants
Local and national chains offering wings, tenders and chicken sandwiches, some with delivery services, competing on taste and price 1.
- Fast casual and quick service restaurants
Fast casual and quick service operators competing on convenience, value and digital experience, not individually identified in the sources reviewed 1.
- Casual dining restaurant chains
Table-service restaurants that can compete for the same dining occasion and delivery share, mentioned in the broader industry competition 1.
- Supermarket delis and in-store cafés
Food sections of major grocery chains and home meal plan services compete for the same quick meal occasion 1.
Links, dependencies and risks
Who the company is tied to, from its own SEC filings (customers, suppliers, production, partners, competitors, countries, regulation), from the 5 %+ holders' statements (13D/13G) and from what other companies say about it. Click a node for its evidence; on a listed company the graph moves to it.
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News & filings
In the press
- European left-wing figures highlight CPC's commitment to self-reformCGTN — World · 05 Nov 2026 · EN
- Democratic progressive wing notches win in California Central ValleyAl Jazeera English · 04 Nov 2026 · EN
- Show HN: After a decade of reversing, I got co-op working in DOS Wing CommanderHacker News · 04 Nov 2026 · EN
- Left-wing Democrat Abdul El-Sayed wins in Michigan to become first Muslim senatorBBC World News · 04 Nov 2026 · EN
- Death of protected species acceptable collateral damage for right-wing MEPsEuractiv · 04 Nov 2026 · EN
- From Cannes to the presidency: France's new right-wing contenderUkrainska Pravda (UA, EN) · 02 Nov 2026 · EN
- Protesters in Israel demand government with Arab parties as right-wing activists call for new electionAnadolu Agency (TR, EN) · 31 Oct 2026 · EN
- 🇩🇪 ⚡️ — Mass protests by left-wing youth against Friedrich Merz's government pol…Telegram — Intel Slava Z (pro-RU OSINT EN) · 31 Oct 2026 · EN
- 🇩🇪 ⚡️ — Mass protests by left-wing youth against Friedrich Merz's government pol…Telegram — Intel Slava Z (pro-RU OSINT EN) · 31 Oct 2026 · EN
- Left-wing Berlin mayor candidate’s private Hamas remarks complicate coalition talksPolitico EU · 29 Oct 2026 · EN
- Poland is growing less religious, but not less right-wingThe Economist — Europe · 29 Oct 2026 · EN
- Right-wing activist James O’Keefe charged with unlawful voting, identity theftThe Hill · 28 Oct 2026 · EN
- Stocks making the biggest moves midday: Wendy's, Wingstop, F5, Enphase Energy, Labcorp & moreCNBC — Top News · 28 Oct 2026 · EN
- Vulnerability in Wing FTP Server softwareCERT Polska · 28 Oct 2026 · EN
- ► SPARC AI signs MOU for european fixed-wing UAV integration and advances commercial strategy in the Middle EastEuropean Defence Review · 28 Oct 2026 · RO
- Brazil's left-wing President Lula elected for fourth termNPR News · 26 Oct 2026 · EN
- Brazil election tests Lula leftist legacy against Bolsonaro right - wing movementSurge — GDELT DOC · 25 Oct 2026 · RO
- Brazil election tests Lula leftist legacy against Bolsonaro right - wing movementSurge — GDELT DOC · 25 Oct 2026 · RO
- Brazil election tests Lula leftist legacy against Bolsonaro right - wing movementSurge — GDELT DOC · 25 Oct 2026 · RO
- Brazil election tests Lula leftist legacy against Bolsonaro right - wing movement - LocalNews8 . comSurge — GDELT DOC · 25 Oct 2026 · RO
SEC filings
- Quarterly report28 Oct 2026
- Current report28 Oct 2026Results of operations · Other events · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report25 Aug 2026Departure or appointment of officers
- Current report06 Aug 2026Departure or appointment of officers
- Quarterly report29 Jul 2026
- Current report29 Jul 2026Results of operations · Other events · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report22 May 2026Amendments to articles or bylaws · Shareholder vote
- Quarterly report29 Apr 2026
- Current report29 Apr 2026Results of operations · Other events · Financial statements and exhibits
- Proxy statement02 Apr 2026
Sources
- [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2025-12-27 · SEC / Wingstop Inc. · 18 Feb 2026
- [2] Form 10-Q, quarter ended 2026-06-27 · SEC / Wingstop Inc. · 29 Jul 2026
- [3] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / Wingstop Inc. · 29 Jul 2026
Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.