olivLaw · US equity research
Brinker International, Inc. EAT
Retail-Eating Places · SIC 5812 · Vertical: Retail-Eating Places (SIC 5812)
Brinker International owns, operates and franchises the Chili's Grill & Bar and Maggiano's Little Italy casual dining chains, with total revenues of 5807.4 million USD in fiscal 2026. The company enters the current period with strong comparable sales growth at Chili's, and its fiscal 2027 guidance points to further revenue growth.
The AI analysis may be outdated: new filings came after its sources (see the «AI analysis» section).
At the close of 04 Nov 2026, Brinker International, Inc. (EAT) stock was 220.44 USD (+6.28% on the day), with market capitalisation 9.2 bn USD, P/E 19.4 on diluted EPS of 11.36 USD over the last 12 months, dividend yield 0.52%, beta 1.05, 52-week range 102.29–253.94 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q1 2027): revenue of 1.5 bn USD (+9.4% YoY), net income of 113.3 m USD (+13.9% YoY), diluted EPS 2.64 USD.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
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Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 60.4
- strong (55–70)
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 178.85 – 223.66
- in the upper half of the band · %B 0.93 · band width 22.3%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 207.29 / 175.17
- uptrend (price > SMA50 > SMA200)
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- 2.82 / -0.16
- MACD above signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | S&P 500 | vs S&P 500 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | +13.5% | −1.1% | +14.6 pp | — |
| 3 months | −2.4% | −0.5% | −2.0 pp | — |
| 6 months | +49.8% | +4.4% | +45.5 pp | — |
| Year to date | +53.6% | +12.3% | +41.3 pp | — |
| 1 year | +110.8% | +13.5% | +97.3 pp | +3.2% |
| 3 years | +524.8% | +76.4% | +448.4 pp | −18.1% |
| 5 years | +393.7% | +63.7% | +330.0 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
Latest quarter: Q1 2027 · 23 Sept 2026
Quarterly margins
Quarterly statements · USD
| Fiscal year | Q2 '25 | Q3 '25 | Q4 '25 | Q1 '26 | Q2 '26 | Q3 '26 | Q4 '26 | Q1 '27 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 1.4 bn | 1.4 bn | 1.5 bn | 1.3 bn | 1.5 bn | 1.5 bn | 1.5 bn | 1.5 bn |
| Cost of revenue | 343.9 m | 353.1 m | 369.3 m | 344.6 m | 370.5 m | 373.1 m | 399.4 m | 378.4 m |
| Operating income | 156.0 m | 156.9 m | 142.7 m | 117.9 m | 168.4 m | 166.6 m | 167.0 m | 151.0 m |
| Interest expense | 14.7 m | 13.2 m | 10.9 m | 10.5 m | 10.7 m | 10.1 m | 9.2 m | 24.6 m |
| Income tax | 23.2 m | 24.7 m | 25.2 m | 8.1 m | 29.6 m | 28.8 m | 27.4 m | 13.7 m |
| Net income | 118.5 m | 119.1 m | 107.0 m | 99.5 m | 128.5 m | 127.9 m | 131.1 m | 113.3 m |
| Diluted EPS | 2.61 | 2.56 | 2.37 ≈ | 2.17 | 2.86 | 2.87 | 2.99 ≈ | 2.64 |
| Operating cash flow | 218.2 m ≈ | 212.0 m ≈ | 186.0 m | 120.8 m | 218.9 m ≈ | 232.1 m ≈ | 217.6 m | 169.1 m |
| Capex | 49.3 m ≈ | 79.6 m ≈ | 79.9 m | 58.6 m | 63.7 m ≈ | 51.2 m ≈ | 58.4 m | 63.4 m |
| Dividends paid | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Share repurchases | 10.4 m ≈ | 1.1 m ≈ | 3.9 m | 134.5 m | 100.5 m ≈ | 108.4 m ≈ | 100.5 m | 165.2 m |
≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Today's P/E sits at the 75 percentile of its own 40-quarter history (min 4.9, median 15.2, max 3,314.0; quarters with earnings only).
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 3.2 bn | 3.1 bn | 3.3 bn | 3.8 bn | 4.1 bn | 4.4 bn | 5.4 bn | 5.8 bn |
| Revenue YoY | +2.6% | −4.3% | +8.4% | +14.0% | +8.7% | +6.8% | +21.9% | +7.9% |
| Net income | 154.9 m | 24.4 m | 131.6 m | 117.6 m | 102.6 m | 155.3 m | 383.1 m | 487.0 m |
| Net income YoY | +23.0% | −84.2% | +439.3% | −10.6% | −12.8% | +51.4% | +146.7% | +27.1% |
| Diluted EPS | 3.96 | 0.63 | 2.83 | 2.58 | 2.28 | 3.40 | 8.32 | 10.87 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | +45.6% | −84.1% | +349.2% | −8.8% | −11.6% | +49.1% | +144.7% | +30.6% |
| net % | 4.8% | 0.8% | 3.9% | 3.1% | 2.5% | 3.5% | 7.1% | 8.4% |
| Free cash flow | 45.1 m | 140.5 m | 275.7 m | 101.9 m | 71.4 m | 223.0 m | 413.7 m | 557.5 m |
Reported results vs expectations
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Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2026 · 24 Jun 2026
- Cash
- 110.0 m USD
- Financial debt
- 25.1 m USD
- Net debt
- -84.9 m USD
- Equity
- 443.7 m USD
- Total assets
- 2.8 bn USD
- Debt / equity
- 0.06x
- Current ratio
- 0.45x
- ROE
- 119.6%
- ROA
- 17.7%
- FCF margin
- 9.6%
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (USD)
Margins
Income statement · USD
| Line | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 3.3 bn | 3.8 bn | 4.1 bn | 4.4 bn | 5.4 bn | 5.8 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Aug 2026verified |
| Cost of revenue | 867.8 m | 1.0 bn | 1.1 bn | 1.1 bn | 1.4 bn | 1.5 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Aug 2026verified |
| Gross profit | 2.5 bn ≈ | 2.8 bn ≈ | 3.0 bn ≈ | 3.3 bn ≈ | 4.0 bn ≈ | 4.3 bn ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Aug 2026derived |
| Operating income | 199.3 m | 159.5 m | 144.4 m | 229.6 m | 512.0 m | 619.9 m | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Aug 2026verified |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 150.2 m | — | — | — | — | — | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Aug 2021verified |
| EBITDA | 349.5 m ≈ | — | — | — | — | — | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Aug 2021derived |
| Interest expense | 56.2 m | 46.1 m | 54.9 m | 65.0 m | 53.1 m | 40.5 m | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Aug 2026verified |
| Pre-tax income | 145.2 m | 115.2 m | 90.8 m | 164.9 m | 460.0 m | 580.9 m | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Aug 2026verified |
| Income tax | 13.6 m | -2.4 m | -11.8 m | 9.6 m | 76.9 m | 93.9 m | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Aug 2026verified |
| Net income | 131.6 m | 117.6 m | 102.6 m | 155.3 m | 383.1 m | 487.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Aug 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | 2.83 | 2.58 | 2.28 | 3.40 | 8.32 | 10.87 | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Aug 2026verified |
| Weighted average diluted shares | 46.6 m | 45.6 m | 45.0 m | 45.7 m | 46.1 m | 44.8 m | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Aug 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Revenue − Cost of revenue; Operating income + Depreciation & amortisation.
Balance sheet · USD
| Line | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 23.9 m | 13.5 m | 15.1 m | 64.6 m | 18.9 m | 110.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Aug 2026verified |
| Receivables | 65.2 m | 66.4 m | 60.9 m | 60.6 m | 73.4 m | 81.4 m | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Aug 2026verified |
| Inventories | 28.9 m | 35.6 m | 34.5 m | 34.5 m | 35.2 m | 34.5 m | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Aug 2026verified |
| Current assets | 207.2 m | 201.2 m | 183.3 m | 234.1 m | 207.0 m | 307.7 m | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Aug 2026verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | 774.8 m | 816.7 m | 808.3 m | 879.7 m | 952.7 m | 967.4 m | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Aug 2026verified |
| Goodwill | 188.2 m | 195.1 m | 195.0 m | 194.8 m | 194.7 m | 194.5 m | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Aug 2026verified |
| Intangibles (excl. goodwill) | 21.1 m | 27.4 m | 23.9 m | 19.9 m | 17.4 m | 15.3 m | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Aug 2026verified |
| Total assets | 2.3 bn | 2.5 bn | 2.5 bn | 2.6 bn | 2.7 bn | 2.8 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Aug 2026verified |
| Accounts payable | 127.7 m | 134.3 m | 125.7 m | 160.6 m | 168.5 m | 168.9 m | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Aug 2026verified |
| Short-term debt | 21.5 m | 20.3 m | 10.2 m | 14.1 m | 17.6 m | 25.1 m | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Aug 2026verified |
| Current liabilities | 571.6 m | 558.0 m | 535.9 m | 622.3 m | 675.6 m | 676.7 m | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Aug 2026verified |
| Equity | -303.3 m † | -268.1 m † | -144.3 m † | 39.4 m † | 370.9 m † | 443.7 m † | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Aug 2026verified |
† equity attributable to the parent's shareholders: in these years the issuer no longer reports the total including non-controlling interests.
Cash flow · USD
| Line | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | 369.7 m | 252.2 m | 256.3 m | 421.9 m | 679.0 m | 789.4 m | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Aug 2026verified |
| Capex | 94.0 m | 150.3 m | 184.9 m | 198.9 m | 265.3 m | 231.9 m | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Aug 2026verified |
| Free cash flow | 275.7 m ≈ | 101.9 m ≈ | 71.4 m ≈ | 223.0 m ≈ | 413.7 m ≈ | 557.5 m ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Aug 2026derived |
| Investing cash flow | -90.9 m | -234.2 m | -174.2 m | -192.2 m | -263.4 m | -231.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Aug 2026verified |
| Financing cash flow | -298.8 m | -28.4 m | -80.5 m | -180.2 m | -461.3 m | -467.3 m | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Aug 2026verified |
| Dividends paid | 1.5 m | 1.1 m | 600.0 k | 200.0 k | 0 | 0 | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Aug 2026verified |
| Share repurchases | 4.2 m | 100.9 m | 5.0 m | 25.8 m | 90.2 m | 443.9 m | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Aug 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating cash flow − Capex.
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
Score: 85 / 100
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 9.2 bn USD
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
- Valuation73
- Balance sheet60
- Quality95
- Growth100
- Returns84
Estimated value range
The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 14.98 – 368.88 USD.
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Method ranges (USD per share)
— — Mid · ▏ Price
Valuation methods
- DCF (discounted cash flow)240.93 – 367.20 (Mid 290.20)WACC 9.3% · starting FCFF 646.2 m USD · terminal value share of EV 74%The WACC × g sensitivity gives the method's bounds; these are not probabilities.Reverse DCF: starting growth implied by the price (fading linearly to terminal growth, everything else fixed): -0.3%
- Peers: EV/EBITDAunavailable · input data missing
- Peers: P/E171.19 – 368.88 (Mid 247.88)22 companies used · median multiple 21.8x · quartiles 15.1x – 32.5xARCO, ARMK, BDL, BLMN, CAKE, CBRL, CMG, DRI, FWRG, GTIM, JACK, LOCO, MB, MCD, NATH, PTLO, PZZA, QSR, TXRH, WING, YUM, YUMC
- Dividend discount (DDM)14.98 – 20.15 (Mid 17.18)
Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 4.3%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 9.3%
- Terminal growth
- 2.5%
Factor scorecard
Neutral profile · Score 85/100
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | 147.0% | 100 (vs peers) | 13% |
| Net margin · Quality | 8.4% | 82 (vs peers) | 8% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | 120.0% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 8% |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | 12.0% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 11% |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | 68.3% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 11% |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | 12.0x | 100 (on a fixed band) | 8% |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 0.3x | 0 (on a fixed band) | 5% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | 19.4x | 65 (vs peers) | 13% |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| FCF yield · Valuation | 6.6% | 82 (on a fixed band) | 11% |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | 5.2% | 74 (on a fixed band) | 8% |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | 0.0% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 5% |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet60/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
- Growth100/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
- Quality95/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
- Returns84/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
- Valuation73/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
Memo
BRINKER INTERNATIONAL, INC. (EAT). Latest full fiscal year: 2026; data up to 2026-09-23.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 5.8 bn USD in 2026; YoY growth 7.9%; net margin 8.4%; ROE 134.7%.
The estimated value range is 171.19–367.20 USD per share (median of 3 methods, agreement: medium); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 247.88 USD, the price of 220.44 USD leaves a potential of 12.4% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of 11.1% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
olivLaw score 85/100, methodological classification: neutral profile (score, margin of safety and method agreement together; not a judgement of the right price). Not investment advice.
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- ROIC: 147.0%
- Net margin: 8.4%
- FCF conversion: 120.0%
- Revenue CAGR 3Y: 12.0%
- EPS CAGR 3Y: 68.3%
- Interest coverage: 12.0x
- FCF yield: 6.6%
- Shareholder yield (distributions): 5.2%
- Payout ratio (FCF): 0.0%
What contradicts it
- Current ratio: 0.3x
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): Net debt / EBITDA, EV/EBITDA.
Versus the vertical median
Retail-Eating Places (SIC 5812) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 39 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MCDMcDONALD’S CORPORATION | 198.3 bn | 0.0 | — | 31.7% | +3.7% | −10% / −1% |
| YUMYum! Brands, Inc. | 45.4 bn | 20.9 | — | 25.4% | +8.8% | +9% / +32% |
| CMGChipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. | 44.5 bn | 32.9 | 48.5% | 10.8% | +5.4% | +2% / −20% |
| DRIDarden Restaurants, Inc. | 26.1 bn | 22.5 | 55.1% | 8.8% | +9.4% | +28% / +47% |
| QSRRestaurant Brands International Inc. | 24.8 bn | 18.2 | 53.8% | 20.1% | +12.2% | +8% / +10% |
| YUMCYum China Holdings, Inc. | 17.0 bn | 18.3 | 17.5% | 7.8% | +4.4% | +3% / +15% |
| ARMKAramark | 13.8 bn | 36.7 | 11.8% | 1.9% | +6.4% | +41% / +87% |
| TXRHTexas Roadhouse, Inc. | 12.9 bn | 31.3 | 28.1% | 6.8% | +9.4% | +12% / +75% |
| EATBrinker International, Inc. | 9.2 bn | 19.4 | 134.7% | 8.4% | +7.9% | +111% / +525% |
| CAVACAVA Group, Inc. | 7.2 bn | 109.3 | 8.3% | 4.8% | +22.4% | +27% / +82% |
| HDLSuper Hi International Holding Ltd. | 6.4 bn | 247.5 | 6.9% | 2.8% | +13.4% | −46% / unavailable |
| CAKEThe Cheesecake Factory Incorporated | 5.8 bn | 27.4 | 41.6% | 5.2% | +4.7% | +142% / +268% |
| WINGWingstop Inc. | 4.5 bn | 39.3 | — | 16.0% | +11.4% | −37% / −30% |
| CBRLCracker Barrel Old Country Store, Inc. | 1.6 bn | 50.2 | 6.7% | 1.0% | −4.7% | +143% / +5% |
| ARCOArcos Dorados Holdings Inc. | 1.5 bn | 7.0 | 33.2% | 4.5% | +4.7% | −7% / −39% |
| SGSweetgreen, Inc. | 1.1 bn | 117.9 | 3.1% | 2.0% | +0.4% | +82% / +25% |
| BLMNBloomin’ Brands, Inc. | 939.3 m | 35.1 | 6.7% | 0.7% | +0.1% | +55% / −53% |
| FWRGFirst Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. | 833.3 m | 42.1 | 3.1% | 1.5% | +20.3% | −27% / −25% |
| PZZAPapa John’s International, Inc. | 658.1 m | 25.1 | — | 1.4% | −0.3% | −52% / −69% |
| LOCOEl Pollo Loco Holdings, Inc. | 501.2 m | 14.1 | 11.8% | 7.0% | +3.6% | +51% / +98% |
| DINDine Brands Global, Inc. | 448.6 m | 106.7 | — | 0.4% | +8.2% | +17% / −16% |
| NATHNathan's Famous, Inc. | 418.2 m | 21.1 | — | 11.8% | +9.4% | −4% / +56% |
| PTLOPortillo's Inc. | 336.8 m | 29.8 | 3.0% | 1.9% | +3.0% | +4% / −65% |
| PLAYDave & Buster’s Entertainment, Inc. | 305.8 m | — | -69.7% | -4.3% | −1.4% | −50% / −79% |
| JACKJack In The Box Inc. | 275.6 m | 8.2 | — | 2.4% | −6.7% | −27% / −80% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for EAT from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (USD)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | 148.75 Total return -33% · Per year -33% | 262.09 Total return 19% · Per year 19% | 393.58 Total return 79% · Per year 79% |
| 3 years | 166.96 Total return -24% · Per year -9% | 328.79 Total return 49% · Per year 14% | 538.80 Total return 144% · Per year 35% |
| 5 years | 187.39 Total return -15% · Per year -3% | 412.46 Total return 87% · Per year 13% | 737.61 Total return 235% · Per year 27% |
- Exit P/E± 82.20
- Net margin± 57.54
- Annual revenue growth± 44.06
- Annual dilution± 4.83
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 19 Aug 2026; since then the company filed 8-K (28 Oct 2026 · results), 10-Q (28 Oct 2026).
In brief
Brinker International owns, operates and franchises the Chili's Grill & Bar and Maggiano's Little Italy casual dining chains, with total revenues of 5807.4 million USD in fiscal 2026. The company enters the current period with strong comparable sales growth at Chili's, and its fiscal 2027 guidance points to further revenue growth.
SWOT
Strengths
- The Chili's brand has strong recognition and has delivered comparable sales growth over a long period.
- The mixed structure of company-owned and franchised restaurants gives flexibility in development, including in international markets.
- The company has the capacity to repurchase shares from operating cash flow, which reflects financial discipline.
Weaknesses
- Heavy reliance on the Chili's brand means problems with its image affect the whole company.
- Concentration of company-owned restaurants in a few states increases exposure to regional economic trends.
- Maggiano's has seen declining comparable sales and needs to rebuild traffic.
Opportunities
- The re-imaging program and new-location pipeline could open new markets and support revenue growth.
- International development through franchisees could increase royalty revenue if partners succeed.
- The acquisition of 12 Chili's restaurants in Alabama and Mississippi could increase the company's control over certain locations.
Threats
- Changing food preferences or new nutritional guidance could reduce demand for the current menu.
- Food safety incidents or negative publicity can quickly affect restaurant traffic.
- Wage pressure, tariffs and food costs could compress margins if they are not offset.
Risks
- Dependence on the Chili's brandhigh
Many results depend on one brand. Negative publicity tied to a few restaurants could affect the entire chain.
- Food and labor costshigh
The company reported higher costs for meat and seafood along with higher wages. If these cannot be passed on through prices, margins could decline.
- Geographic concentrationmedium
Company-owned restaurants are concentrated in Texas, Florida and California. Local events or natural disasters could disproportionately affect revenues.
- Reliance on digital and third-party channelsmedium
Online ordering and delivery depend on third-party aggregators. Changes in fees or priority on platforms could reduce sales.
- Food safety and reputationmedium
A food safety incident, real or not, could damage brand reputations and could attract regulatory action.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- Chili's comparable sales growth for five consecutive years indicates durable demand, and the fiscal 2027 guidance suggests revenue growth could continue.
- The re-imaging program and new locations could refresh the fleet and support long-term growth.
- Share repurchases and the 750.0 million USD authorization suggest management sees cash flow as able to support shareholders.
What would break the thesis
- Dependence on one brand and on comparable sales could become a problem if traffic slows.
- Cost and wage pressures could compress margins, especially if prices can no longer be raised.
- Maggiano's has seen declining sales, and if its revitalization is delayed, the brand could weigh on the overall result.
What to watch
- Total revenue and diluted earnings per share guidance for fiscal 20272027
- Chili's comparable sales trend after the Big Crispy launchQ1 2027
- Progress of the modern Greenville program and number of re-imaged restaurants2027
- Completion of the acquisition of 12 Chili's restaurants in Alabama and Mississippinext 10-K
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 19 Aug 2026; since then the company filed 8-K (28 Oct 2026 · results), 10-Q (28 Oct 2026).
The business
Brinker International, Inc. owns, develops, operates and franchises two brands: Chili's Grill & Bar, the flagship brand, and Maggiano's Little Italy, a national full-service chain focused on Italian American favorites and events. In fiscal 2026, Company sales were 5750.9 million USD, while franchise revenues were 56.5 million USD, a small share of total revenues. The system included 1163 Company-owned restaurants and 472 franchise-operated restaurants as of June 24, 2026, and franchisees own and operate approximately 29.0% of system-wide restaurants according to the annual report.
The Chili's strategy rests on a simplified menu built around five core items (burgers, fajitas, Chicken Crispers, margaritas and the Triple Dipper), value offers such as the '3 for Me' platform, and investments in digital ordering and third-party delivery. Maggiano's is pursuing the 'Back to Maggiano's' strategy to revitalize the brand through food, service and atmosphere initiatives. The company is also working on the 'modern Greenville' re-image program, which could extend to about 10% of the fleet annually starting in fiscal 2027.
Company-owned restaurants are concentrated in Texas (19.2% of restaurants) and Florida, while international presence is almost entirely franchised. According to the August 2026 release, Chili's has delivered comparable sales growth for five consecutive years, and the company has authorized 750.0 million USD in share repurchases. These elements suggest that development depends on success in new locations and on franchisee growth.
Segments
Chili's
The Chili's segment generated total revenues of 5352.6 million USD in fiscal 2026, with comparable sales up 9.2%, supported by pricing, higher traffic and a favorable menu mix. Company restaurant sales accounted for 5297.0 million USD of that amount.
Market context
The company operates in the casual dining segment in the United States and other countries, where competition for guest frequency is intense. The analyzed sources do not give the total market size, so Chili's position is judged from relative performance: in the fourth quarter of fiscal 2026, the company reported that Chili's outperformed the casual dining industry. Seasonal effects (peaks in winter and spring) and weather also influence quarterly revenues.
Demand remains sensitive to macroeconomic pressures, wage and product cost inflation including tariffs, and changing food preferences. The company has leaned on value offers and digital channels to sustain traffic, and its fiscal 2027 guidance assumes total revenues of 6.15 to 6.27 billion USD.
Competitive position
The regulatory sources do not name individual direct competitors, but Brinker describes competition as active both for guests and for qualified staff. The company argues Chili's differentiates on quality, value and atmosphere versus other casual dining restaurants, while Maggiano's competes especially for events and family dinners.
Competition also runs through delivery aggregators and digital platforms that the company does not control. If these platforms give priority to competitors through paid placements, Brinker's sales could be affected.
- Other US casual dining operators
The sources do not name individual competitors; the company describes general competition in the casual dining segment.
- Third-party delivery aggregators
The company relies on delivery partners for off-premise orders, and these can favor other brands through paid placements.
- Digital ordering and delivery platforms
Digital channels compete for guest frequency, and changes in their fees or visibility can affect the company's sales.
- Other sit-down restaurants in local markets
Local competition matters most in areas where restaurants are concentrated, such as Texas and Florida.
Links, dependencies and risks
Who the company is tied to, from its own SEC filings (customers, suppliers, production, partners, competitors, countries, regulation), from the 5 %+ holders' statements (13D/13G) and from what other companies say about it. Click a node for its evidence; on a listed company the graph moves to it.
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News & filings
In the press
- Here are Wednesday's biggest analyst calls: SpaceX, Nvidia, Apple, Meta, Brinker, Kontoor Brands & moreCNBC — Top News · 14 Oct 2026 · EN
- Chili's owner has surged this year. It's still 'underappreciated,' Jefferies saysCNBC — Top News · 14 Oct 2026 · EN
- Brinker Intl CEO on Growth While Delivering ValueBloomberg Markets · 29 Sept 2026 · EN
- Why Brinker International Stock Jumped TodayYahoo Finance — News · 22 Sept 2026 · EN
- Jim Cramer Prefers Brinker (EAT) Over Darden (DRI) Ahead of EarningsYahoo Finance — News · 22 Sept 2026 · EN
- Brinker's 2026 Outlook: Capital Allocation Targets $400 Million in Share RepurchasesYahoo Finance — News · 17 Sept 2026 · EN
- Jim Cramer Says Brinker (EAT) “Never Fails to Wow Me”Yahoo Finance — News · 16 Sept 2026 · EN
- Chili's Stays Hot. Its Owner Is IBD's Stock Of The Day.Yahoo Finance — News · 14 Sept 2026 · EN
- 43-year-old chicken chain, Chili's rival, closes more locationsYahoo Finance — News · 30 Aug 2026 · EN
- Could Brinker International (EAT) Stock Be the Restaurant Turnaround Story Investors Have Been Waiting For?Yahoo Finance — News · 28 Aug 2026 · EN
The latest news item in our archive is from 14 Oct 2026; the newest SEC filing is from 28 Oct 2026. The press archive comes from the RSS feeds we follow and does not necessarily cover the latest event — the filings alongside do.
SEC filings
- Quarterly report28 Oct 2026
- Current report28 Oct 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Proxy statement25 Sept 2026
- Current report17 Sept 2026Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
- Annual report19 Aug 2026
- Current report12 Aug 2026Results of operations · Other events · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report17 Jun 2026Other events
- Quarterly report29 Apr 2026
- Current report29 Apr 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report02 Mar 2026Departure or appointment of officers · Financial statements and exhibits
Sources
- [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2026-06-24 · SEC / Brinker International, Inc. · 19 Aug 2026
- [2] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / Brinker International, Inc. · 12 Aug 2026
Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.