olivLaw · US equity research
Nathan's Famous, Inc. NATH
Retail-Eating Places · SIC 5812 · Vertical: Retail-Eating Places (SIC 5812)
Nathan's Famous is a licensor, wholesaler and retailer of products under its century-old hot dog brand, with revenue driven by licensing and the Branded Product Program for foodservice. The company is pending a merger with Smithfield Foods, so its evolution depends on completing the transaction. Revenue for the first quarter of fiscal 2027 reached 54,062 mn USD, and the announced deal values the company at about 450 mn USD.
At the close of 27 Oct 2026, Nathan's Famous, Inc. (NATH) stock was 102.05 USD (+0.00% on the day), with market capitalisation 418.2 m USD, P/E 21.1 on diluted EPS of 4.83 USD over the last 12 months, dividend yield 4.41%, beta 0.49, 52-week range 89.87–110.34 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q1 2027): revenue of 54.1 m USD (+15.0% YoY), net income of 8.8 m USD (−1.1% YoY), diluted EPS 2.14 USD.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
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Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 64.6
- strong (55–70)
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 101.39 – 102.17
- in the upper half of the band · %B 0.85 · band width 0.8%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 99.47 / 100.00
- mixed trend
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- 0.74 / 0.84
- MACD below signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | S&P 500 | vs S&P 500 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | +0.5% | −1.1% | +1.6 pp | — |
| 3 months | +2.7% | −0.5% | +3.1 pp | — |
| 6 months | +1.6% | +4.4% | −2.8 pp | — |
| Year to date | +9.1% | +12.3% | −3.3 pp | — |
| 1 year | −4.1% | +13.5% | −17.6 pp | +8.3% |
| 3 years | +57.0% | +76.4% | −19.4 pp | −16.1% |
| 5 years | +63.2% | +63.7% | −0.4 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
Latest quarter: Q1 2027 · 28 Jun 2026
Quarterly margins
Quarterly statements · USD
| Fiscal year | Q2 '25 | Q3 '25 | Q4 '25 | Q1 '26 | Q2 '26 | Q3 '26 | Q4 '26 | Q1 '27 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 41.1 m | 31.5 m | 30.8 m | 47.0 m | 45.7 m | 34.3 m | 35.1 m | 54.1 m |
| Cost of revenue | 26.0 m | 19.6 m | 18.9 m | 28.4 m | 32.4 m | 23.1 m | 22.6 m | 35.2 m |
| Gross profit | 15.1 m | 11.9 m | 11.9 m | 18.6 m | 13.3 m | 11.2 m | 12.5 m | 18.9 m |
| Operating income | 9.6 m | 6.8 m | 6.4 m | 12.8 m | 7.5 m | 5.1 m | 4.7 m | 12.7 m |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 247.0 k | 235.0 k | 226.0 k | 228.0 k | 236.0 k | 232.0 k | 229.0 k | 239.0 k |
| Interest expense | 1.4 m | 842.0 k | 763.0 k | 758.0 k | 739.0 k | 707.0 k | 653.0 k | 638.0 k |
| Pre-tax income | 8.1 m | 6.1 m | 5.8 m | 12.3 m | 7.0 m | 4.7 m | 4.2 m | 12.2 m |
| Income tax | 2.1 m | 1.6 m | 1.6 m | 3.3 m | 1.8 m | 1.7 m | 1.4 m | 3.3 m |
| Net income | 6.0 m | 4.5 m | 4.2 m | 8.9 m | 5.2 m | 3.1 m | 2.8 m | 8.8 m |
| Diluted EPS | 1.47 | 1.10 | 1.03 ≈ | 2.16 | 1.26 | 0.75 | 0.68 ≈ | 2.14 |
| Operating cash flow | 9.8 m ≈ | 3.6 m ≈ | 6.8 m | -220.0 k | 10.2 m ≈ | 5.8 m ≈ | 2.5 m | 949.0 k |
| Capex | 89.0 k ≈ | 41.0 k ≈ | 54.0 k | 115.0 k | 161.0 k ≈ | 56.0 k ≈ | 38.0 k | 67.0 k |
≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Today's P/E sits at the 69 percentile of its own 39-quarter history (min 12.9, median 18.2, max 116.3; quarters with earnings only).
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 101.8 m | 103.3 m | 75.8 m | 114.9 m | 130.8 m | 138.6 m | 148.2 m | 162.1 m |
| Revenue YoY | −2.3% | +1.4% | −26.6% | +51.5% | +13.8% | +6.0% | +6.9% | +9.4% |
| Net income | 21.5 m | 13.4 m | 11.1 m | 13.6 m | 19.6 m | 19.6 m | 24.0 m | 20.0 m |
| Net income YoY | +717.2% | −37.5% | −17.6% | +22.8% | +44.3% | −0.0% | +22.5% | −16.7% |
| Diluted EPS | 5.09 | 3.19 | 2.69 | 3.30 | 4.80 | 4.80 | 5.87 | 4.85 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | +721.0% | −37.3% | −15.7% | +22.7% | +45.5% | 0.0% | +22.3% | −17.4% |
| net % | 21.1% | 13.0% | 14.6% | 11.8% | 15.0% | 14.2% | 16.2% | 12.4% |
| Free cash flow | 10.7 m | 11.5 m | 11.2 m | 15.8 m | 19.2 m | 19.7 m | 25.0 m | 17.9 m |
Reported results vs expectations
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Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2026 · 29 Mar 2026
- Cash
- 24.4 m USD
- Financial debt
- 48.1 m USD
- Net debt
- 23.7 m USD
- Equity
- -14.2 m USD
- Total assets
- 53.7 m USD
- Debt / equity
- unavailable
- Current ratio
- 2.49x
- ROE
- unavailable
- ROA
- 37.4%
- FCF margin
- 11.0%
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (USD)
Margins
Income statement · USD
| Line | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 75.8 m | 114.9 m | 130.8 m | 138.6 m | 148.2 m | 162.1 m | SEC (XBRL)· 09 Jun 2026verified |
| Cost of revenue | 32.5 m | 65.2 m | 75.2 m | 83.2 m | 89.7 m | 106.5 m | SEC (XBRL)· 09 Jun 2026verified |
| Gross profit | 43.3 m ≈ | 49.7 m ≈ | 55.6 m ≈ | 55.4 m | 58.5 m | 55.5 m | SEC (XBRL)· 09 Jun 2026verified |
| Operating income | 25.5 m | 29.9 m | 34.4 m | 32.5 m | 36.5 m | 30.1 m | SEC (XBRL)· 09 Jun 2026verified |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 1.2 m | 1.1 m | 1.1 m | 1.1 m | 957.0 k | 925.0 k | SEC (XBRL)· 09 Jun 2026verified |
| EBITDA | 26.7 m ≈ | 30.9 m ≈ | 35.6 m ≈ | 33.6 m ≈ | 37.5 m ≈ | 31.0 m ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 09 Jun 2026derived |
| Interest expense | — | — | — | 5.4 m | 4.1 m | 2.9 m | SEC (XBRL)· 09 Jun 2026verified |
| Pre-tax income | 15.3 m | 18.5 m | 26.8 m | 27.5 m | 32.8 m | 28.2 m | SEC (XBRL)· 09 Jun 2026verified |
| Income tax | 4.3 m | 4.9 m | 7.2 m | 7.8 m | 8.7 m | 8.2 m | SEC (XBRL)· 09 Jun 2026verified |
| Net income | 11.1 m | 13.6 m | 19.6 m | 19.6 m | 24.0 m | 20.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 09 Jun 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | 2.69 | 3.30 | 4.80 | 4.80 | 5.87 | 4.85 | SEC (XBRL)· 09 Jun 2026verified |
| Weighted average diluted shares | 4.1 m | 4.1 m | 4.1 m | 4.1 m | 4.1 m | 4.1 m | SEC (XBRL)· 09 Jun 2026verified |
| Dividend per share | 1.40 | 1.50 | 1.85 | 2.00 | 2.00 | 4.50 | SEC (XBRL)· 09 Jun 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Revenue − Cost of revenue; Operating income + Depreciation & amortisation.
Balance sheet · USD
| Line | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 81.1 m | 50.1 m | 29.9 m | 21.0 m | 27.8 m | 24.4 m | SEC (XBRL)· 09 Jun 2026verified |
| Inventories | 624.0 k | 522.0 k | 539.0 k | 842.0 k | 1.2 m | 891.0 k | SEC (XBRL)· 09 Jun 2026verified |
| Current assets | 94.7 m | 65.4 m | 47.4 m | 38.8 m | 45.1 m | 47.1 m | SEC (XBRL)· 09 Jun 2026verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | 4.1 m | 3.8 m | 3.3 m | 2.7 m | 2.1 m | 1.7 m | SEC (XBRL)· 09 Jun 2026verified |
| Goodwill | 95.0 k | 95.0 k | 95.0 k | 95.0 k | 95.0 k | 95.0 k | SEC (XBRL)· 09 Jun 2026verified |
| Intangibles (excl. goodwill) | 1.2 m | 1.0 m | 869.0 k | 695.0 k | 522.0 k | 348.0 k | SEC (XBRL)· 09 Jun 2026verified |
| Total assets | 108.8 m | 78.5 m | 58.6 m | 48.9 m | 53.5 m | 53.7 m | SEC (XBRL)· 09 Jun 2026verified |
| Accounts payable | 4.0 m | 6.4 m | 6.5 m | 5.7 m | 6.2 m | 7.9 m | SEC (XBRL)· 09 Jun 2026verified |
| Short-term debt | 0 | — | — | 0 | 2.4 m | 2.4 m | SEC (XBRL)· 09 Jun 2026verified |
| Long-term debt | 146.8 m | 108.2 m | 79.0 m | 59.6 m | 48.1 m | 45.7 m | SEC (XBRL)· 09 Jun 2026verified |
| Current liabilities | 14.6 m | 16.4 m | 16.7 m | 15.6 m | 16.8 m | 18.9 m | SEC (XBRL)· 09 Jun 2026verified |
| Total liabilities | 171.3 m | 133.5 m | 103.2 m | 81.8 m | 70.0 m | 67.9 m | SEC (XBRL)· 09 Jun 2026verified |
| Equity | -62.5 m † | -55.0 m † | -44.6 m † | -32.9 m † | -16.5 m † | -14.2 m † | SEC (XBRL)· 09 Jun 2026verified |
† equity attributable to the parent's shareholders: in these years the issuer no longer reports the total including non-controlling interests.
Cash flow · USD
| Line | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | 11.8 m | 16.5 m | 19.8 m | 20.0 m | 25.2 m | 18.2 m | SEC (XBRL)· 09 Jun 2026verified |
| Capex | 551.0 k | 636.0 k | 626.0 k | 313.0 k | 225.0 k | 370.0 k | SEC (XBRL)· 09 Jun 2026verified |
| Free cash flow | 11.2 m ≈ | 15.8 m ≈ | 19.2 m ≈ | 19.7 m ≈ | 25.0 m ≈ | 17.9 m ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 09 Jun 2026derived |
| Investing cash flow | -551.0 k | -636.0 k | -584.0 k | -313.0 k | -225.0 k | -370.0 k | SEC (XBRL)· 09 Jun 2026verified |
| Financing cash flow | -7.3 m | -46.8 m | -39.5 m | -28.5 m | -18.2 m | -21.3 m | SEC (XBRL)· 09 Jun 2026verified |
| Dividends paid | — | 6.2 m | 7.6 m | — | — | — | SEC (XBRL)· 08 Jun 2023verified |
| Share repurchases | 1.5 m | 0 | 1.9 m | 0 | — | — | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Jun 2024verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating cash flow − Capex.
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
Score: 61 / 100
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
(margin_of_safety <= -0.25 & agreement in ['high', 'medium'])
Closing price
27 Oct 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 418.2 m USD
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
- Balance sheet82
- Growth32
- Valuation49
- Quality92
Estimated value range
The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 48.18 – 159.29 USD.
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Method ranges (USD per share)
— — Mid · ▏ Price
Valuation methods
- DCF (discounted cash flow)71.05 – 115.29 (Mid 87.92)WACC 8.8% · starting FCFF 21.0 m USD · terminal value share of EV 75%The WACC × g sensitivity gives the method's bounds; these are not probabilities.Reverse DCF: starting growth implied by the price (fading linearly to terminal growth, everything else fixed): 13.9%
- Peers: EV/EBITDA48.18 – 116.95 (Mid 68.12)24 companies used · median multiple 9.8x · quartiles 7.1x – 16.2xARCO, ARMK, BDL, BJRI, BLMN, CAKE, CBRL, DRI, FWRG, GTIM, LOCO, MCD, NDLS, PLAY, PTLO, PZZA, QSR, RICK, RRGB, STKS, TXRH, WING, YUM, YUMC
- Peers: P/E87.68 – 159.29 (Mid 115.17)22 companies used · median multiple 23.8x · quartiles 18.1x – 33.0xARCO, ARMK, BDL, BJRI, BLMN, CAKE, CBRL, CMG, DRI, EAT, FWRG, GTIM, JACK, LOCO, MCD, PTLO, PZZA, QSR, TXRH, WING, YUM, YUMC
- Dividend discount (DDM)59.13 – 79.53 (Mid 67.83)
Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 4.3%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 9.3%
- Terminal growth
- 2.5%
Factor scorecard
Unattractive profile · Score 61/100
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net margin · Quality | 11.8% | 90 (vs peers) | 8% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | 95.8% | 94 (on a fixed band) | 8% |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | 7.4% | 62 (on a fixed band) | 11% |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | 0.3% | 2 (on a fixed band) | 11% |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | 0.7x | 64 (vs peers) | 13% |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | 11.0x | 100 (on a fixed band) | 8% |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 2.4x | 100 (on a fixed band) | 5% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | 21.1x | 60 (vs peers) | 13% |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | 14.3x | 32 (vs peers) | 13% |
| FCF yield · Valuation | 4.6% | 57 (on a fixed band) | 11% |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet82/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
- Growth32/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
- Quality92/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
- Returns· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
- Valuation49/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
NATHAN'S FAMOUS, INC. (NATH). Latest full fiscal year: 2026; data up to 2026-06-28.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 162.1 m USD in 2026; YoY growth 9.4%; net margin 11.8%; net debt/EBITDA 0.7x.
The estimated value range is 65.09–116.12 USD per share (median of 4 methods, agreement: high); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 78.02 USD, the price of 102.05 USD leaves a potential of -23.5% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of -30.8% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
olivLaw score 61/100, methodological classification: unattractive profile (score, margin of safety and method agreement together; not a judgement of the right price). Groups assessed only in part: returns. Not investment advice.
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- Net margin: 11.8%
- FCF conversion: 95.8%
- Interest coverage: 11.0x
- Current ratio: 2.4x
What contradicts it
- EPS CAGR 3Y: 0.3%
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): ROIC, Shareholder yield (distributions), Payout ratio (FCF).
Versus the vertical median
Retail-Eating Places (SIC 5812) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 39 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MCDMcDONALD’S CORPORATION | 198.3 bn | 0.0 | — | 31.7% | +3.7% | −10% / −1% |
| YUMYum! Brands, Inc. | 45.4 bn | 20.9 | — | 25.4% | +8.8% | +9% / +32% |
| CMGChipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. | 44.5 bn | 32.9 | 48.5% | 10.8% | +5.4% | +2% / −20% |
| DRIDarden Restaurants, Inc. | 26.1 bn | 22.5 | 55.1% | 8.8% | +9.4% | +28% / +47% |
| QSRRestaurant Brands International Inc. | 24.8 bn | 18.2 | 53.8% | 20.1% | +12.2% | +8% / +10% |
| YUMCYum China Holdings, Inc. | 17.0 bn | 18.3 | 17.5% | 7.8% | +4.4% | +3% / +15% |
| ARMKAramark | 13.8 bn | 36.7 | 11.8% | 1.9% | +6.4% | +41% / +87% |
| TXRHTexas Roadhouse, Inc. | 12.9 bn | 31.3 | 28.1% | 6.8% | +9.4% | +12% / +75% |
| EATBrinker International, Inc. | 9.2 bn | 19.4 | 134.7% | 8.4% | +7.9% | +43% / +512% |
| CAVACAVA Group, Inc. | 7.2 bn | 109.3 | 8.3% | 4.8% | +22.4% | +27% / +82% |
| CAKEThe Cheesecake Factory Incorporated | 5.8 bn | 27.4 | 41.6% | 5.2% | +4.7% | +142% / +268% |
| WINGWingstop Inc. | 4.5 bn | 39.3 | — | 16.0% | +11.4% | −37% / −30% |
| CBRLCracker Barrel Old Country Store, Inc. | 1.6 bn | 50.2 | 6.7% | 1.0% | −4.7% | +143% / +5% |
| ARCOArcos Dorados Holdings Inc. | 1.5 bn | 7.0 | 33.2% | 4.5% | +4.7% | −7% / −39% |
| BJRIBj’s Restaurants, Inc. | 1.3 bn | 33.0 | 10.4% | 2.9% | +3.1% | +61% / +106% |
| SGSweetgreen, Inc. | 1.1 bn | 117.9 | 3.1% | 2.0% | +0.4% | +82% / +25% |
| BLMNBloomin’ Brands, Inc. | 939.3 m | 35.1 | 6.7% | 0.7% | +0.1% | +55% / −53% |
| FWRGFirst Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. | 833.3 m | 42.1 | 3.1% | 1.5% | +20.3% | −27% / −25% |
| PZZAPapa John’s International, Inc. | 658.1 m | 25.1 | — | 1.4% | −0.3% | −52% / −69% |
| LOCOEl Pollo Loco Holdings, Inc. | 501.2 m | 14.1 | 11.8% | 7.0% | +3.6% | +51% / +98% |
| DINDine Brands Global, Inc. | 448.6 m | 106.7 | — | 0.4% | +8.2% | +17% / −16% |
| NATHNathan's Famous, Inc. | 418.2 m | 21.1 | — | 11.8% | +9.4% | −4% / +57% |
| PTLOPortillo's Inc. | 336.8 m | 29.8 | 3.0% | 1.9% | +3.0% | +4% / −65% |
| PLAYDave & Buster’s Entertainment, Inc. | 305.8 m | — | -69.7% | -4.3% | −1.4% | −50% / −79% |
| JACKJack In The Box Inc. | 275.6 m | 8.2 | — | 2.4% | −6.7% | −27% / −80% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for NATH from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (USD)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | 62.48 Total return -35% · Per year -35% | 110.30 Total return 13% · Per year 13% | 165.94 Total return 68% · Per year 68% |
| 3 years | 64.23 Total return -26% · Per year -10% | 127.25 Total return 40% · Per year 12% | 209.68 Total return 125% · Per year 31% |
| 5 years | 66.04 Total return -17% · Per year -4% | 146.81 Total return 71% · Per year 11% | 264.95 Total return 196% · Per year 24% |
- Exit P/E± 31.81
- Net margin± 22.27
- Annual revenue growth± 17.78
- Annual dilution± 1.87
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
In brief
Nathan's Famous is a licensor, wholesaler and retailer of products under its century-old hot dog brand, with revenue driven by licensing and the Branded Product Program for foodservice. The company is pending a merger with Smithfield Foods, so its evolution depends on completing the transaction. Revenue for the first quarter of fiscal 2027 reached 54,062 mn USD, and the announced deal values the company at about 450 mn USD.
SWOT
Strengths
- The historic brand and its recognition across the US market support premium pricing and access to many distribution channels.
- Licensing produces stable, high-margin revenue without significant operating costs.
- A diversified model with licensing, branded products and franchising reduces dependence on any single channel.
Weaknesses
- Reliance on Smithfield Foods for much of the royalty income exposes the company to the risk of a weakened relationship.
- A few large customers account for almost all revenue in the Branded Product Program.
- Company-owned restaurants are few and concentrated in one area, which limits exposure to that segment.
Opportunities
- Expanding distribution in underpenetrated regions and through new products could grow licensing sales.
- Converting non-branded foodservice sales to Nathan's products could add volume.
- Developing franchising through master programs abroad could extend international presence.
Threats
- Volatile beef prices could reduce margins if the cost cannot be passed on to customers.
- Failure of the Smithfield transaction could bring added costs and uncertainty.
- Higher New York minimum wages could press the costs of Company-owned restaurants.
Risks
- Merger may not closehigh
Completion depends on shareholder approval, CFIUS clearance and other conditions. If the deal fails, the company could owe a termination fee and bear high costs.
- Dependence on one licensing partnerhigh
Most royalties come from Smithfield Foods through 2032. An interruption of the agreement would have a major effect on revenue.
- Beef costmedium
The price of beef is volatile, and unrecovered increases could reduce the margins of the Branded Product Program.
- Customer concentration in foodservicemedium
Losing one of a few large customers could seriously affect the profit of the Branded Product Program.
- Wage and regulatory pressurelow
Higher minimum wages and joint-employer risks could raise operating costs.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- If the brand keeps growing volume and price in the Branded Product Program, revenue could remain solid in the coming period.
- High-margin licenses, including the Smithfield contract, provide a long-term and predictable revenue stream.
- The cash price in the announced transaction reflects the value investors attach to the brand, which could support interest in the stock.
What would break the thesis
- If beef costs stay high, margins in the Branded Product Program could continue to compress.
- Dependence on Smithfield and a few large customers makes the company vulnerable to changes in these relations.
- A delay or failure of the merger could leave the company with high costs and prolonged uncertainty.
What to watch
- CFIUS approvals and shareholder vote on the Smithfield Foods mergersecond half of 2026
- Trend in beef costs and margins in the Branded Product ProgramQ2 2027
- Volume and average selling price in the Branded Product ProgramQ2 2027
- Royalty revenue from Smithfield Foodsnext 10-Q
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
The business
Nathan's Famous leverages a brand more than 100 years old through three main channels: licenses for consumer products sold in supermarkets and clubs, a Branded Product Program for foodservice, and a small network of Company-owned and franchised restaurants. According to the annual report for fiscal 2026, licensing generates high-margin revenue, and the Branded Product Program is the main growth driver. In January 2026 the company agreed to a merger with Smithfield Foods, which would make it privately held after completion.
Segments
Consumer product licensing
The main partner is Smithfield Foods, which sells branded hot dogs and fries in supermarkets and clubs. Royalties from Smithfield were about 33,589 mn USD in fiscal 2026, or 21% of revenue. In the first quarter of fiscal 2027, license royalties rose to 13,587 mn USD.
Branded Product Program
This segment sells hot dogs directly to foodservice operators and distributors, without royalties. In the first quarter of fiscal 2027 sales rose to 35,039 mn USD, supported by volume about 8% higher and an average selling price about 17% higher. Five large customers accounted for about 80% of this program's revenue in fiscal 2026.
Company-owned and franchised restaurants
The company operates only a few Company-owned restaurants in the New York area, while its franchise network includes locations across several states and countries, plus virtual kitchens. Company-owned restaurant revenue was 12,508 mn USD in fiscal 2026, and franchise revenue was 4,317 mn USD. The segment is small compared with licensing and the Branded Product Program.
Market context
The company operates in the US premium hot dog and foodservice market, where it competes for shelf space and operator menus. The volatile cost of beef, affected by drought and tariffs, largely determines margins in the Branded Product Program. The quick-service franchise market offers an additional channel but is sensitive to restaurant consumption.
Trends
- Beef cost inflationheadwind
The cost of beef and beef trimmings rose 22% in the first quarter of fiscal 2027, which cut operating income in the Branded Product Program. The company tried to offset this with contracts correlated to beef prices, but unrecovered increases could compress margins.
- Growth in Branded Product salestailwind
Volume and average selling price rose together in the Branded Product Program, which points to sustained foodservice demand. If this trend continues, it could offset cost pressure.
- New York minimum wageheadwind
The minimum wage in New York City and nearby areas rose in early 2026, and across New York State it will increase annually with the consumer price index. This directly affects Company-owned restaurants and staffing costs.
- Merger with Smithfield Foodsmixed
The transaction announced in January 2026 awaits HSR and CFIUS approvals, and closing was moved to the second half of 2026. Until then uncertainty may weigh on decisions and partner relations, and completion would change the company's status.
Competitive position
Nathan's competes with other hot dog and snack brands in supermarkets and foodservice, and with quick-service chains for consumer attention. Its advantage lies in brand recognition and the premium price it can command, but it depends on a few large partners. The reviewed documents do not detail direct competitors with tickers.
- Smithfield Foods
Principal licensing partner and buyer of the company in the merger agreed in January 2026; the sources do not confirm a US ticker.
- Lamb Weston
Licensing partner for products under the Nathan's brand, including frozen fries sold through retail channels.
- Applegreen USA Welcome Centers
Franchisee operating locations in highway travel plazas, and an actor in the roadside food market.
- HMS Host
Franchisee with airport and mall locations, competing for foodservice space in captive venues.
Links, dependencies and risks
Who the company is tied to, from its own SEC filings (customers, suppliers, production, partners, competitors, countries, regulation), from the 5 %+ holders' statements (13D/13G) and from what other companies say about it. Click a node for its evidence; on a listed company the graph moves to it.
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News & filings
In the press
No news in our archive over the last 180 days.
SEC filings
- Current report26 Oct 2026Termination of a material agreement · Acquisition or disposition of assets · Delisting notice · Item 3.03 · Item 5.01 · Departure or appointment of officers · Amendments to articles or bylaws · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report23 Oct 2026Shareholder vote
- Current report14 Oct 2026Other events
- Quarterly report07 Aug 2026
- Current report07 Aug 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Annual report09 Jun 2026
- Current report09 Jun 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Quarterly report05 Feb 2026
- Current report05 Feb 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report21 Jan 2026Material agreement · Departure or appointment of officers · Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
Sources
- [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2026-03-29 · SEC / Nathan's Famous, Inc. · 09 Jun 2026
- [2] Form 10-Q, quarter ended 2026-06-28 · SEC / Nathan's Famous, Inc. · 07 Aug 2026
- [3] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / Nathan's Famous, Inc. · 07 Aug 2026
Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.