olivLaw · US equity research
Texas Roadhouse, Inc. TXRH
Retail-Eating Places · SIC 5812 · Vertical: Retail-Eating Places (SIC 5812)
Texas Roadhouse operates casual dining restaurants under three concepts, Texas Roadhouse, Bubba's 33 and Jaggers, and reached 832 restaurants by June 30, 2026. Total revenue rose 11.1% in the second quarter of 2026, and the company could be watched for how beef cost pressure flows through restaurant margins.
At the close of 04 Nov 2026, Texas Roadhouse, Inc. (TXRH) stock was 196.45 USD (+6.48% on the day), with market capitalisation 12.9 bn USD, P/E 31.3 on diluted EPS of 6.28 USD over the last 12 months, dividend yield 1.46%, beta 0.64, 52-week range 155.88–214.28 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q2 2026): revenue of 1.7 bn USD (+11.1% YoY), net income of 124.5 m USD (−1.7% YoY), diluted EPS 1.85 USD.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
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Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 72.8
- overbought (≥ 70)
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 152.57 – 191.21
- above the upper band · %B 1.14 · band width 22.5%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 173.30 / 178.75
- mixed trend
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- 4.75 / 1.44
- MACD above signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | S&P 500 | vs S&P 500 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | +23.6% | −1.1% | +24.7 pp | — |
| 3 months | −5.8% | −0.5% | −5.3 pp | — |
| 6 months | +23.0% | +4.4% | +18.6 pp | — |
| Year to date | +18.3% | +12.3% | +6.0 pp | — |
| 1 year | +21.1% | +13.5% | +7.6 pp | +3.2% |
| 3 years | +88.4% | +76.4% | +12.0 pp | −16.1% |
| 5 years | +105.2% | +63.7% | +41.5 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
Latest quarter: Q2 2026 · 30 Jun 2026
Quarterly margins
Quarterly statements · USD
| Fiscal year | Q3 '24 | Q4 '24 | Q1 '25 | Q2 '25 | Q3 '25 | Q4 '25 | Q1 '26 | Q2 '26 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 1.3 bn | 1.4 bn | 1.4 bn | 1.5 bn | 1.4 bn | 1.5 bn | 1.6 bn | 1.7 bn |
| Cost of revenue | 1.1 bn | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Operating income | 102.0 m | 138.6 m | 134.7 m | 146.3 m | 96.9 m | 96.7 m | 146.3 m | 142.8 m |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 44.5 m | 49.2 m | 48.8 m | 50.7 m | 52.6 m | 54.5 m | 56.8 m | 58.3 m |
| Pre-tax income | 104.2 m | 140.7 m | 136.3 m | 148.8 m | 97.7 m | 98.0 m | 147.0 m | 144.0 m |
| Income tax | 17.4 m | 22.2 m | 20.2 m | 22.1 m | 12.8 m | 11.3 m | 21.0 m | 19.5 m |
| Net income | 86.8 m | 118.5 m | 116.1 m | 126.7 m | 84.9 m | 86.7 m | 126.0 m | 124.5 m |
| Diluted EPS | 1.26 | 1.77 ≈ | 1.70 | 1.86 | 1.25 | 1.31 ≈ | 1.87 | 1.85 |
| Operating cash flow | 138.7 m ≈ | 237.5 m | 237.7 m | 128.2 m ≈ | 143.6 m ≈ | 220.5 m | 259.1 m | 180.1 m ≈ |
| Capex | 91.1 m ≈ | 107.8 m | 77.4 m | 92.5 m ≈ | 128.9 m ≈ | 89.2 m | 80.2 m | 98.7 m ≈ |
| Dividends paid | 40.7 m ≈ | 40.7 m | 45.2 m | 45.1 m ≈ | 45.1 m ≈ | 44.9 m | 49.4 m | 49.3 m ≈ |
| Share repurchases | 9.6 m | 35.3 m | 50.2 m | 10.3 m ≈ | 40.0 m ≈ | 50.0 m | 28.2 m | 43.7 m ≈ |
≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Today's P/E sits at the 85 percentile of its own 39-quarter history (min 20.5, median 27.6, max 175.5; quarters with earnings only).
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 2.5 bn | 2.8 bn | 2.4 bn | 3.5 bn | 4.0 bn | 4.6 bn | 5.4 bn | 5.9 bn |
| Revenue YoY | +10.7% | +12.2% | −13.0% | +44.4% | +15.9% | +15.4% | +16.0% | +9.4% |
| Net income | 158.2 m | 174.5 m | 31.3 m | 245.3 m | 269.8 m | 313.7 m | 444.3 m | 414.3 m |
| Net income YoY | +20.3% | +10.3% | −82.1% | +684.8% | +10.0% | +16.3% | +41.7% | −6.8% |
| Diluted EPS | 2.20 | 2.46 | 0.45 | 3.50 | 3.97 | 4.54 | 6.47 | 6.10 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | +19.6% | +11.8% | −81.7% | +677.8% | +13.4% | +14.4% | +42.5% | −5.7% |
| net % | 6.4% | 6.3% | 1.3% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 8.3% | 7.0% |
| Free cash flow | 196.9 m | 160.0 m | 76.0 m | 268.1 m | 265.6 m | 218.0 m | 399.3 m | 342.1 m |
Reported results vs expectations
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Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2025 · 30 Dec 2025
- Cash
- 134.7 m USD
- Financial debt
- 0 USD
- Net debt
- -134.7 m USD
- Equity
- 1.5 bn USD
- Total assets
- 3.5 bn USD
- Debt / equity
- 0.00x
- Current ratio
- 0.50x
- ROE
- 29.0%
- ROA
- 12.3%
- FCF margin
- 5.8%
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (USD)
Margins
Income statement · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 2.4 bn | 3.5 bn | 4.0 bn | 4.6 bn | 5.4 bn | 5.9 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified |
| Cost of revenue | 2.1 bn | 2.9 bn | 3.4 bn | 3.9 bn | — | — | SEC (XBRL)· 23 Feb 2024verified |
| Gross profit | 283.6 m ≈ | 606.5 m ≈ | 653.6 m ≈ | 735.1 m ≈ | — | — | SEC (XBRL)· 23 Feb 2024derived |
| Operating income | 23.8 m | 297.2 m | 320.2 m | 354.0 m | 516.5 m | 474.7 m | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 117.9 m | 126.8 m | 137.2 m | 153.2 m | 178.2 m | 206.6 m | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified |
| EBITDA | 141.7 m ≈ | 424.0 m ≈ | 457.4 m ≈ | 507.2 m ≈ | 694.7 m ≈ | 681.4 m ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026derived |
| Pre-tax income | 19.3 m | 292.9 m | 321.3 m | 358.3 m | 524.5 m | 480.8 m | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified |
| Income tax | -15.7 m | 39.6 m | 43.7 m | 44.6 m | 80.1 m | 66.4 m | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified |
| Net income | 31.3 m | 245.3 m | 269.8 m | 313.7 m | 444.3 m | 414.3 m | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | 0.45 | 3.50 | 3.97 | 4.54 | 6.47 | 6.10 | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified |
| Weighted average diluted shares | 69.9 m | 70.1 m | 67.9 m | 67.1 m | 67.0 m | 66.5 m | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified |
| Dividend per share | 0.36 | 1.20 | 1.84 | 2.20 | 2.44 | 2.72 | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Revenue − Cost of revenue; Operating income + Depreciation & amortisation.
Balance sheet · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 363.2 m | 335.6 m | 173.9 m | 104.2 m | 245.2 m | 134.7 m | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified |
| Receivables | 98.4 m | 161.4 m | 150.3 m | 175.5 m | 193.2 m | 214.5 m | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified |
| Inventories | 22.4 m | 31.6 m | 38.0 m | 38.3 m | 40.8 m | 45.6 m | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified |
| Current assets | 510.7 m | 563.5 m | 396.8 m | 356.5 m | 516.6 m | 451.5 m | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | 1.1 bn | 1.2 bn | 1.3 bn | 1.5 bn | 1.6 bn | 1.8 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified |
| Goodwill | 127.0 m | 127.0 m | 148.7 m | 169.7 m | 169.7 m | 242.2 m | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified |
| Intangibles (excl. goodwill) | 2.3 m | 1.5 m | 5.6 m | 3.5 m | 1.3 m | 17.7 m | SEC (XBRL)· 08 May 2026verified |
| Total assets | 2.3 bn | 2.5 bn | 2.5 bn | 2.8 bn | 3.2 bn | 3.5 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified |
| Accounts payable | 67.0 m | 95.2 m | 105.6 m | 131.6 m | 144.8 m | 163.4 m | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified |
| Short-term debt | 50.0 m | — | — | — | — | — | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2021verified |
| Long-term debt | 190.0 m | 100.0 m | 50.0 m | 0 | — | 0 | SEC (XBRL)· 07 Aug 2026verified |
| Current liabilities | 506.3 m | 602.1 m | 652.0 m | 745.4 m | 828.1 m | 908.8 m | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified |
| Total liabilities | 1.4 bn | 1.4 bn | 1.5 bn | 1.6 bn | 1.8 bn | 2.1 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified |
| Equity | 943.1 m | 1.1 bn | 1.0 bn | 1.2 bn | 1.4 bn | 1.5 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified |
Cash flow · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | 230.4 m | 468.8 m | 511.7 m | 565.0 m | 753.6 m | 730.1 m | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified |
| Capex | 154.4 m | 200.7 m | 246.1 m | 347.0 m | 354.3 m | 388.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified |
| Free cash flow | 76.0 m ≈ | 268.1 m ≈ | 265.6 m ≈ | 218.0 m ≈ | 399.3 m ≈ | 342.1 m ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026derived |
| Investing cash flow | -161.1 m | -195.1 m | -263.7 m | -367.2 m | -336.9 m | -482.8 m | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified |
| Financing cash flow | 185.9 m | -301.2 m | -409.8 m | -267.4 m | -275.7 m | -357.8 m | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified |
| Dividends paid | 25.0 m | 83.7 m | 124.1 m | 147.2 m | 162.9 m | 180.3 m | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified |
| Share repurchases | 12.6 m | 51.6 m | 212.9 m | 50.0 m | 80.0 m | 150.4 m | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating cash flow − Capex.
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
Score: 65 / 100
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 12.9 bn USD
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
- Balance sheet65
- Growth100
- Quality87
- Returns63
- Valuation28
Estimated value range
The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 35.74 – 201.57 USD.
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Method ranges (USD per share)
— — Mid · ▏ Price
Valuation methods
- DCF (discounted cash flow)unavailable · the reported interest expense is far older than the latest period (the filer changed its XBRL tag): a stale figure is not used
- Peers: EV/EBITDA78.26 – 170.86 (Mid 103.94)22 companies used · median multiple 9.5x · quartiles 7.1x – 15.7xARCO, BDL, BJRI, BLMN, CAKE, CBRL, DRI, FWRG, GTIM, LOCO, MCD, NATH, NDLS, PLAY, PTLO, PZZA, QSR, RRGB, STKS, WING, YUM, YUMC
- Peers: P/E94.62 – 201.57 (Mid 131.99)22 companies used · median multiple 21.0x · quartiles 15.1x – 32.1xARCO, BDL, BJRI, BLMN, CAKE, CBRL, CMG, DRI, EAT, FWRG, GTIM, JACK, LOCO, MB, MCD, NATH, PTLO, PZZA, QSR, WING, YUM, YUMC
- Dividend discount (DDM)35.74 – 48.07 (Mid 41.00)
Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 4.3%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 9.3%
- Terminal growth
- 2.5%
Factor scorecard
Neutral profile · Score 65/100
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | 29.3% | 89 (vs peers) | 11% |
| Net margin · Quality | 6.8% | 74 (vs peers) | 7% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | 96.3% | 95 (on a fixed band) | 7% |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | 13.5% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 9% |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | 15.4% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 9% |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | -0.2x | 91 (vs peers) | 11% |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 0.5x | 0 (on a fixed band) | 4% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | 31.3x | 38 (vs peers) | 11% |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | 18.1x | 9 (vs peers) | 11% |
| FCF yield · Valuation | 3.2% | 39 (on a fixed band) | 9% |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | 2.7% | 39 (on a fixed band) | 7% |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | 46.4% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 4% |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet65/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
- Growth100/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
- Quality87/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
- Returns63/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
- Valuation28/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
Memo
Texas Roadhouse, Inc. (TXRH). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2026-06-30.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 5.9 bn USD in 2025; YoY growth 9.4%; net margin 6.8%; ROE 28.1%; net debt/EBITDA -0.2x.
The estimated value range is 78.26–170.86 USD per share (median of 3 methods, agreement: low); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 103.94 USD, the price of 196.45 USD leaves a potential of -47.1% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of -89.0% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
olivLaw score 65/100, methodological classification: neutral profile (score, margin of safety and method agreement together; not a judgement of the right price). Not investment advice.
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- ROIC: 29.3%
- Net margin: 6.8%
- FCF conversion: 96.3%
- Revenue CAGR 3Y: 13.5%
- EPS CAGR 3Y: 15.4%
- Net debt / EBITDA: -0.2x
- Payout ratio (FCF): 46.4%
What contradicts it
- Current ratio: 0.5x
- EV/EBITDA: 18.1x
- The price is above the estimated value range
- The valuation methods diverge
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): Interest coverage.
Versus the vertical median
Retail-Eating Places (SIC 5812) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 39 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MCDMcDONALD’S CORPORATION | 198.3 bn | 0.0 | — | 31.7% | +3.7% | −10% / −1% |
| YUMYum! Brands, Inc. | 45.4 bn | 20.9 | — | 25.4% | +8.8% | +9% / +32% |
| CMGChipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. | 44.5 bn | 32.9 | 48.5% | 10.8% | +5.4% | +2% / −20% |
| DRIDarden Restaurants, Inc. | 26.1 bn | 22.5 | 55.1% | 8.8% | +9.4% | +28% / +47% |
| QSRRestaurant Brands International Inc. | 24.8 bn | 18.2 | 53.8% | 20.1% | +12.2% | +8% / +10% |
| YUMCYum China Holdings, Inc. | 17.0 bn | 18.3 | 17.5% | 7.8% | +4.4% | +3% / +15% |
| TXRHTexas Roadhouse, Inc. | 12.9 bn | 31.3 | 28.1% | 6.8% | +9.4% | +21% / +88% |
| EATBrinker International, Inc. | 9.2 bn | 19.4 | 134.7% | 8.4% | +7.9% | +43% / +512% |
| CAVACAVA Group, Inc. | 7.2 bn | 109.3 | 8.3% | 4.8% | +22.4% | +27% / +82% |
| HDLSuper Hi International Holding Ltd. | 6.4 bn | 247.5 | 6.9% | 2.8% | +13.4% | −46% / unavailable |
| CAKEThe Cheesecake Factory Incorporated | 5.8 bn | 27.4 | 41.6% | 5.2% | +4.7% | +142% / +268% |
| WINGWingstop Inc. | 4.5 bn | 39.3 | — | 16.0% | +11.4% | −37% / −30% |
| CBRLCracker Barrel Old Country Store, Inc. | 1.6 bn | 50.2 | 6.7% | 1.0% | −4.7% | +143% / +5% |
| ARCOArcos Dorados Holdings Inc. | 1.5 bn | 7.0 | 33.2% | 4.5% | +4.7% | −7% / −39% |
| BJRIBj’s Restaurants, Inc. | 1.3 bn | 33.0 | 10.4% | 2.9% | +3.1% | +61% / +106% |
| SGSweetgreen, Inc. | 1.1 bn | 117.9 | 3.1% | 2.0% | +0.4% | +82% / +25% |
| BLMNBloomin’ Brands, Inc. | 939.3 m | 35.1 | 6.7% | 0.7% | +0.1% | +55% / −53% |
| FWRGFirst Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. | 833.3 m | 42.1 | 3.1% | 1.5% | +20.3% | −27% / −25% |
| PZZAPapa John’s International, Inc. | 658.1 m | 25.1 | — | 1.4% | −0.3% | −52% / −69% |
| LOCOEl Pollo Loco Holdings, Inc. | 501.2 m | 14.1 | 11.8% | 7.0% | +3.6% | +51% / +98% |
| DINDine Brands Global, Inc. | 448.6 m | 106.7 | — | 0.4% | +8.2% | +17% / −16% |
| NATHNathan's Famous, Inc. | 418.2 m | 21.1 | — | 11.8% | +9.4% | −4% / +56% |
| PTLOPortillo's Inc. | 336.8 m | 29.8 | 3.0% | 1.9% | +3.0% | +4% / −65% |
| PLAYDave & Buster’s Entertainment, Inc. | 305.8 m | — | -69.7% | -4.3% | −1.4% | −50% / −79% |
| JACKJack In The Box Inc. | 275.6 m | 8.2 | — | 2.4% | −6.7% | −27% / −80% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for TXRH from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (USD)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | 129.79 Total return -33% · Per year -33% | 228.54 Total return 18% · Per year 18% | 342.99 Total return 77% · Per year 77% |
| 3 years | 149.92 Total return -20% · Per year -7% | 294.67 Total return 56% · Per year 16% | 482.04 Total return 153% · Per year 36% |
| 5 years | 173.17 Total return -4% · Per year -1% | 379.93 Total return 104% · Per year 15% | 677.46 Total return 260% · Per year 29% |
- Exit P/E± 73.67
- Net margin± 51.57
- Annual revenue growth± 38.95
- Annual dilution± 4.33
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
In brief
Texas Roadhouse operates casual dining restaurants under three concepts, Texas Roadhouse, Bubba's 33 and Jaggers, and reached 832 restaurants by June 30, 2026 2. Total revenue rose 11.1% in the second quarter of 2026 3, and the company could be watched for how beef cost pressure flows through restaurant margins.
SWOT
Strengths
- The owner-operator model, with partners who have a financial stake in restaurant results, supports motivation and stable leadership 1.
- Three concepts with different positioning allow coverage of several customer segments 1.
- Comparable sales and guest traffic stayed strong in the second quarter of 2026 3.
Weaknesses
- Dependence on beef, supplied by a limited number of large vendors, leaves the company exposed to price or supply shocks 1.
- Restaurant margin declined in the second quarter of 2026 because of commodity inflation 3.
- Construction and rent costs for new restaurants are rising, which slows returns on newly opened units 1.
Opportunities
Risks
- Beef costshigh
About half of food and beverage costs relate to beef, and the company expects inflation to persist 1. If prices cannot be passed on to customers, margins could decline.
- Supplier dependencemedium
Beef is purchased from a few large suppliers, and if one cannot meet its obligations, the company could face shortages and higher costs 1.
- Delays in openingsmedium
New restaurant openings depend on sites, permits and construction costs, and delays could postpone growth and raise pre-opening expenses 1.
- Brand reputationmedium
Issues involving food safety, service or employee conduct can quickly affect traffic and sales 1.
- Slowing consumer spendinglow
Changes in economic conditions and discretionary spending could reduce comparable restaurant sales 2.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- Comparable sales and average weekly sales reached new highs in the second quarter of 2026, pointing to solid demand 3. If traffic holds, revenue growth could continue.
- The company has a development pipeline and a balance sheet that management considers healthy, which could support expansion across all three concepts 3.
- The owner-operator model and rising dividends could strengthen employee loyalty and long-term shareholder confidence 1.
What would break the thesis
- Beef cost inflation reduced restaurant margin in the second quarter of 2026, and if the pressure continues, results could be affected 3.
- Rising construction and rent costs could make new restaurants less profitable, which could slow growth in profitability 1.
- Operating profit declined in the second quarter of 2026 even as revenue rose, suggesting that general and administrative costs could weigh on results 3.
What to watch
- Restaurant margin trend and beef inflation against the roughly 5% commodity inflation expected for 2026Q3 2026
- Whether positive comparable restaurant sales continue, including the effect of menu pricing2026
- Pace of new restaurant openings and franchise acquisitions against 5% to 6% store week growth2026
- General and administrative expenses, which rose and weighed on profitnext 10-K
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
The business
Texas Roadhouse, Inc. is a restaurant company operating predominantly in the casual dining segment, headquartered in Louisville, Kentucky 1. It was founded in 1993 and runs three concepts: Texas Roadhouse, Bubba's 33 and Jaggers 1. Its model rests on high quality food, moderate prices, generous portions and attentive service, with an emphasis on being the local hometown favorite 1.
As of December 30, 2025, the company owned and operated 714 restaurants and franchised 102, of which 648 were Texas Roadhouse, 56 Bubba's 33 and ten Jaggers 1. Its owner-operator partnership model, in which restaurant and market partners receive performance-based pay and make a refundable deposit, is central to the strategy 1. By June 30, 2026 it operated 732 company restaurants 2.
The growth strategy relies on opening new restaurants, acquiring domestic franchise locations and returning capital to shareholders through dividends and buybacks 1. The company declared a quarterly dividend of $0.75 per share, payable September 29, 2026 3.
Segments
Texas Roadhouse
The core concept, with aged steaks hand cut daily on the premises and cooked over open grills, along with free in-shell peanuts and fresh yeast rolls 1. As of June 30, 2026 there were 662 company-operated Texas Roadhouse restaurants 2.
Market context
The company operates in 49 U.S. states, one U.S. territory and ten foreign countries, and focuses its expansion on markets with large population, high income and a significant employment base 1. A slowdown in discretionary consumer spending or food inflation could weigh on demand for casual dining 1.
Comparable restaurant sales growth in the second quarter of 2026 was supported by guest traffic, but beef and labor cost pressure is limiting margins, and the company expects commodity inflation of about 5% in 2026 3.
Trends
- Beef cost inflationheadwind
About half of food and beverage costs relate to beef, and the company reported higher than normal commodity inflation in 2025 1. If this pressure persists, restaurant margins could remain under strain 3.
- Solid guest traffictailwind
Comparable sales at company restaurants rose in the second quarter of 2026, and average weekly sales reached record levels, pointing to firm demand 3. If this trend continues, it could support revenue growth.
- Expansion through openings and acquisitionsmixed
The company is opening new restaurants and acquiring existing franchise locations, which expands its company-operated base 2. However, the capital cost of new restaurants is rising because of higher rent and building costs 1.
- Labor cost inflationheadwind
Wage and other labor inflation was reported at 3.9% in the second quarter of 2026, and the company expects 3% to 4% for 2026 3. This could weigh on operating margins.
Competitive position
The company competes with other casual dining restaurants, but also with fast-casual and quick-service restaurants, delivery services, meal kits and grocery stores that draw the same customers 1. Competition for suitable sites in target markets can be intense, which could slow openings 1.
Differentiation rests on food quality, local atmosphere and an owner-operator model in which partners share in restaurant results 1. If a competitor offers lower prices or a faster format, demand could shift toward those options 1.
- Fast-casual restaurants
Named in the source as a category of competition for casual dining guests, without specific names in the texts reviewed.
- Quick-service restaurants
A competitive category cited in the source, attracting guests with a faster and cheaper format.
- Delivery services and meal kits
Alternatives that can reduce dine-in traffic, cited as factors affecting comparable sales.
- Grocery stores
Indirect competition through food prepared at home, cited in the source.
Links, dependencies and risks
Who the company is tied to, from its own SEC filings (customers, suppliers, production, partners, competitors, countries, regulation), from the 5 %+ holders' statements (13D/13G) and from what other companies say about it. Click a node for its evidence; on a listed company the graph moves to it.
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News & filings
In the press
- Texas Roadhouse Analysts Say Buy Now After Food-Tampering HoaxBloomberg Markets · 07 Oct 2026 · EN
- Despite Record Sales, Texas Roadhouse Has Beef With Beef CostsYahoo Finance — News · 22 Sept 2026 · EN
- Jim Cramer Notes Oil Is Behind Pressure on Casey’s (CASY) and Texas Roadhouse (TXRH)Yahoo Finance — News · 19 Sept 2026 · EN
SEC filings
- Quarterly report07 Aug 2026
- Current report06 Aug 2026Results of operations · Other events · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report22 May 2026Shareholder vote
- Quarterly report08 May 2026
- Current report07 May 2026Results of operations · Other events · Financial statements and exhibits
- Proxy statement10 Apr 2026
- Current report05 Mar 2026Departure or appointment of officers · Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
- Annual report27 Feb 2026
- Current report19 Feb 2026Results of operations · Departure or appointment of officers · Other events · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report13 Feb 2026Departure or appointment of officers
Sources
- [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2025-12-30 · SEC / Texas Roadhouse, Inc. · 27 Feb 2026
- [2] Form 10-Q, quarter ended 2026-06-30 · SEC / Texas Roadhouse, Inc. · 07 Aug 2026
- [3] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / Texas Roadhouse, Inc. · 06 Aug 2026
Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.