olivLaw · US equity research
Papa John's International, Inc. PZZA
Retail-Eating Places · SIC 5812 · Vertical: Retail-Eating Places (SIC 5812)
Papa John's International is one of the largest pizza delivery and carryout chains in the world, operating through company-owned restaurants and mainly franchising across more than 50 countries. In 2026 the company is going through a costly transformation: in the second quarter North America comparable sales fell 8.3 percent while the international division grew, and the dividend was suspended to fund the change.
At the close of 04 Nov 2026, Papa John's International, Inc. (PZZA) stock was 19.99 USD (+7.70% on the day), with market capitalisation 658.1 m USD, P/E 25.1 on diluted EPS of 0.79 USD over the last 12 months, dividend yield 9.20%, beta 0.67, 52-week range 18.07–43.97 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q2 2026): revenue of 482.4 m USD (−8.8% YoY), net income of 8.5 m USD (−10.5% YoY), diluted EPS 0.24 USD.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
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Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 56.0
- strong (55–70)
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 17.79 – 20.07
- in the upper half of the band · %B 0.96 · band width 12.0%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 20.24 / 29.85
- downtrend (price < SMA50 < SMA200)
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- -0.42 / -0.64
- MACD above signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | S&P 500 | vs S&P 500 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | +2.3% | −1.1% | +3.4 pp | — |
| 3 months | −32.8% | −0.5% | −32.4 pp | — |
| 6 months | −40.8% | +4.4% | −45.2 pp | — |
| Year to date | −48.1% | +12.3% | −60.4 pp | — |
| 1 year | −54.0% | +13.5% | −67.6 pp | +4.4% |
| 3 years | −70.6% | +76.4% | −147.0 pp | −0.6% |
| 5 years | −84.9% | +63.7% | −148.6 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
Latest quarter: Q2 2026 · 28 Jun 2026
Quarterly margins
Quarterly statements · USD
| Fiscal year | Q3 '24 | Q4 '24 | Q1 '25 | Q2 '25 | Q3 '25 | Q4 '25 | Q1 '26 | Q2 '26 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 506.8 m | 530.8 m | 518.3 m | 529.2 m | 508.2 m | 498.2 m | 478.6 m | 482.4 m |
| Cost of revenue | 370.1 m | 377.6 m | 366.5 m | 371.7 m | 369.1 m | 353.2 m | 340.9 m | 339.0 m |
| Operating income | 65.2 m | 29.5 m | 24.0 m | 24.5 m | 16.2 m | 24.5 m | 20.8 m | 23.2 m |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 17.3 m | 16.9 m | 18.3 m | 18.8 m ≈ | 24.9 m ≈ | 30.2 m | 17.7 m | 19.2 m ≈ |
| Pre-tax income | 54.6 m | 19.5 m | 13.9 m | 13.9 m | 6.2 m | 14.4 m | 11.1 m | 13.7 m |
| Income tax | 12.8 m | 4.6 m | 4.5 m | 4.2 m | 1.8 m | 5.7 m | 4.1 m | 5.0 m |
| Net income | 41.8 m | 14.8 m | 9.2 m | 9.5 m | 4.7 m | 7.1 m | 7.3 m | 8.5 m |
| Diluted EPS | 1.27 | 0.45 ≈ | 0.27 | 0.28 | 0.13 | 0.21 ≈ | 0.21 | 0.24 |
| Operating cash flow | 13.9 m ≈ | 50.7 m | 31.3 m | 35.5 m ≈ | 39.3 m ≈ | 19.8 m | 7.2 m | 28.6 m ≈ |
| Capex | 17.8 m ≈ | 25.6 m | 12.2 m | 18.1 m ≈ | 16.7 m ≈ | 17.7 m | 13.5 m | 12.9 m ≈ |
| Dividends paid | 15.2 m ≈ | 15.2 m | 15.2 m | 15.3 m ≈ | 15.3 m ≈ | 15.3 m | 15.3 m | 15.5 m ≈ |
| Share repurchases | 0 ≈ | 2.1 m | — | — | — | — | — | — |
≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Today's P/E sits at the 26 percentile of its own 31-quarter history (min 15.6, median 34.0, max 2,529.5; quarters with earnings only).
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 1.7 bn | 1.6 bn | 1.8 bn | 2.1 bn | 2.1 bn | 2.1 bn | 2.1 bn | 2.1 bn |
| Revenue YoY | −6.8% | −2.6% | +12.0% | +14.1% | +1.6% | +1.6% | −3.6% | −0.3% |
| Net income | 2.5 m | 4.9 m | 57.9 m | 120.0 m | 67.8 m | 82.1 m | 83.5 m | 30.5 m |
| Net income YoY | −97.6% | +96.7% | +1,090.5% | +107.2% | −43.5% | +21.1% | +1.7% | −63.4% |
| Diluted EPS | 0.08 | -0.24 | 1.28 | 0.12 | 1.89 | 2.48 | 2.54 | 0.90 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | −97.2% | −400.0% | unavailable | −90.6% | +1,475.0% | +31.2% | +2.4% | −64.6% |
| net % | 0.1% | 0.3% | 3.2% | 5.8% | 3.2% | 3.8% | 4.1% | 1.5% |
| Free cash flow | 50.4 m | 24.0 m | 150.8 m | 116.1 m | 39.4 m | 116.4 m | 34.1 m | 61.3 m |
Reported results vs expectations
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Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2025 · 28 Dec 2025
- Cash
- 34.6 m USD
- Financial debt
- 715.4 m USD
- Net debt
- 680.8 m USD
- Equity
- -433.7 m USD
- Total assets
- 837.5 m USD
- Debt / equity
- unavailable
- Current ratio
- 0.82x
- ROE
- unavailable
- ROA
- 3.5%
- FCF margin
- 3.0%
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (USD)
Margins
Income statement · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 1.8 bn | 2.1 bn | 2.1 bn | 2.1 bn | 2.1 bn | 2.1 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Cost of revenue | — | — | 1.6 bn | 1.6 bn | 1.5 bn | 1.5 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Gross profit | — | — | 544.4 m ≈ | 577.3 m ≈ | 581.0 m ≈ | 593.3 m ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026derived |
| Operating income | 90.3 m | 168.2 m | 109.0 m | 147.1 m | 156.7 m | 89.1 m | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 49.7 m | 48.8 m | 52.0 m | 64.1 m | 69.4 m | 92.2 m | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| EBITDA | 140.0 m ≈ | 217.1 m ≈ | 161.1 m ≈ | 211.2 m ≈ | 226.1 m ≈ | 181.4 m ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026derived |
| Interest expense | 17.0 m | 19.2 m | 26.7 m | — | — | — | SEC (XBRL)· 23 Feb 2023verified |
| Pre-tax income | — | — | 83.8 m | 103.7 m | 114.1 m | 48.4 m | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Income tax | 14.7 m | 26.0 m | 14.4 m | 20.9 m | 29.9 m | 16.3 m | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Net income | 57.9 m | 120.0 m | 67.8 m | 82.1 m | 83.5 m | 30.5 m | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | 1.28 | 0.12 | 1.89 | 2.48 | 2.54 | 0.90 | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Weighted average diluted shares | 32.7 m | 35.3 m | 35.7 m | 33.2 m | 32.8 m | 32.9 m | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Dividend per share | 0.90 | 1.15 | 1.54 | 1.76 | 1.84 | 1.84 | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Revenue − Cost of revenue; Operating income + Depreciation & amortisation.
Balance sheet · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 130.2 m | 70.6 m | 47.4 m | 40.6 m | 38.0 m | 34.6 m | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Receivables | 90.1 m | 81.4 m | 102.5 m | 104.2 m | 101.7 m | 103.1 m | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Inventories | 30.3 m | 35.0 m | 41.4 m | 36.1 m | 35.2 m | 34.3 m | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Current assets | 306.4 m | 255.0 m | 251.0 m | 231.0 m | 230.6 m | 237.4 m | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | 200.9 m | 223.9 m | 249.8 m | 282.8 m | 273.3 m | 251.3 m | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Goodwill | 80.8 m | 80.6 m | 70.6 m | 76.2 m | 75.5 m | 67.6 m | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Total assets | 872.8 m | 885.7 m | 864.2 m | 875.0 m | 889.0 m | 837.5 m | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Accounts payable | 37.4 m | 28.1 m | 62.3 m | 74.9 m | 61.8 m | 61.2 m | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Short-term debt | 20.0 m | — | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Long-term debt | 328.3 m | 480.7 m | 597.1 m | 757.4 m | 741.7 m | 710.4 m | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Current liabilities | 288.9 m | 287.4 m | 265.2 m | 304.6 m | 278.0 m | 291.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Total liabilities | 881.3 m | 1.1 bn | 1.1 bn | 1.3 bn | 1.3 bn | 1.3 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Equity | -266.9 m | -172.5 m | -270.7 m | -443.6 m | -414.2 m | -433.7 m | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
Cash flow · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | 186.4 m | 184.7 m | 117.8 m | 193.1 m | 106.6 m | 126.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Capex | 35.7 m | 68.6 m | 78.4 m | 76.6 m | 72.5 m | 64.7 m | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Free cash flow | 150.8 m ≈ | 116.1 m ≈ | 39.4 m ≈ | 116.4 m ≈ | 34.1 m ≈ | 61.3 m ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026derived |
| Investing cash flow | -41.1 m | -63.5 m | -62.8 m | -75.1 m | -17.3 m | -21.5 m | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Financing cash flow | -43.5 m | -180.5 m | -76.2 m | -124.1 m | -91.7 m | -106.3 m | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Dividends paid | 43.1 m | 40.4 m | 54.8 m | 58.5 m | 60.6 m | 61.1 m | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Share repurchases | 2.7 m | 72.5 m | 125.0 m | 210.3 m | 2.1 m | 0 | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating cash flow − Capex.
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
Score: 42 / 100
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 658.1 m USD
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
- Balance sheet19
- Growth0
- Quality71
- Returns60
- Valuation58
Estimated value range
The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 11.98 – 66.75 USD.
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Method ranges (USD per share)
— — Mid · ▏ Price
Valuation methods
- DCF (discounted cash flow)unavailable · the reported interest expense is far older than the latest period (the filer changed its XBRL tag): a stale figure is not used
- Peers: EV/EBITDA16.71 – 66.75 (Mid 34.86)22 companies used · median multiple 10.5x · quartiles 7.1x – 16.4xARCO, BDL, BJRI, BLMN, CAKE, CBRL, DRI, FWRG, GTIM, LOCO, MCD, NATH, NDLS, PLAY, PTLO, QSR, RRGB, STKS, TXRH, WING, YUM, YUMC
- Peers: P/E11.98 – 25.82 (Mid 16.72)22 companies used · median multiple 21.0x · quartiles 15.1x – 32.5xARCO, BDL, BJRI, BLMN, CAKE, CBRL, CMG, DRI, EAT, FWRG, GTIM, JACK, LOCO, MB, MCD, NATH, PTLO, QSR, TXRH, WING, YUM, YUMC
- Dividend discount (DDM)24.18 – 32.52 (Mid 27.74)
Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 4.3%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 9.3%
- Terminal growth
- 2.5%
Factor scorecard
Neutral profile · Score 42/100
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net margin · Quality | 1.4% | 41 (vs peers) | 8% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | 124.2% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 8% |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | -0.8% | 0 (on a fixed band) | 10% |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | -21.9% | 0 (on a fixed band) | 10% |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | 4.0x | 26 (vs peers) | 13% |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 0.8x | 2 (on a fixed band) | 5% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | 25.1x | 50 (vs peers) | 13% |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | 7.7x | 61 (vs peers) | 13% |
| FCF yield · Valuation | 5.2% | 65 (on a fixed band) | 10% |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | 9.3% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 8% |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | 179.7% | 0 (on a fixed band) | 5% |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet19/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
- Growth0/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
- Quality71/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
- Returns60/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
- Valuation58/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
Memo
PAPA JOHN’S INTERNATIONAL, INC. (PZZA). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2026-06-28.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 2.1 bn USD in 2025; YoY growth -0.3%; net margin 1.4%; net debt/EBITDA 4.0x.
The estimated value range is 16.71–32.52 USD per share (median of 3 methods, agreement: low); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 27.74 USD, the price of 19.99 USD leaves a potential of 38.7% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of 27.9% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
olivLaw score 42/100, methodological classification: neutral profile (score, margin of safety and method agreement together; not a judgement of the right price). Not investment advice.
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- FCF conversion: 124.2%
- Shareholder yield (distributions): 9.3%
What contradicts it
- Revenue CAGR 3Y: -0.8%
- EPS CAGR 3Y: -21.9%
- Net debt / EBITDA: 4.0x
- Current ratio: 0.8x
- Payout ratio (FCF): 179.7%
- The valuation methods diverge
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): ROIC, Interest coverage.
Versus the vertical median
Retail-Eating Places (SIC 5812) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 39 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MCDMcDONALD’S CORPORATION | 198.3 bn | 0.0 | — | 31.7% | +3.7% | −10% / −1% |
| YUMYum! Brands, Inc. | 45.4 bn | 20.9 | — | 25.4% | +8.8% | +9% / +32% |
| CMGChipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. | 44.5 bn | 32.9 | 48.5% | 10.8% | +5.4% | +2% / −20% |
| DRIDarden Restaurants, Inc. | 26.1 bn | 22.5 | 55.1% | 8.8% | +9.4% | +28% / +47% |
| QSRRestaurant Brands International Inc. | 24.8 bn | 18.2 | 53.8% | 20.1% | +12.2% | +8% / +10% |
| YUMCYum China Holdings, Inc. | 17.0 bn | 18.3 | 17.5% | 7.8% | +4.4% | +3% / +15% |
| TXRHTexas Roadhouse, Inc. | 12.9 bn | 31.3 | 28.1% | 6.8% | +9.4% | +12% / +75% |
| EATBrinker International, Inc. | 9.2 bn | 19.4 | 134.7% | 8.4% | +7.9% | +43% / +512% |
| CAVACAVA Group, Inc. | 7.2 bn | 109.3 | 8.3% | 4.8% | +22.4% | +27% / +82% |
| HDLSuper Hi International Holding Ltd. | 6.4 bn | 247.5 | 6.9% | 2.8% | +13.4% | −46% / unavailable |
| CAKEThe Cheesecake Factory Incorporated | 5.8 bn | 27.4 | 41.6% | 5.2% | +4.7% | +142% / +268% |
| WINGWingstop Inc. | 4.5 bn | 39.3 | — | 16.0% | +11.4% | −37% / −30% |
| CBRLCracker Barrel Old Country Store, Inc. | 1.6 bn | 50.2 | 6.7% | 1.0% | −4.7% | +143% / +5% |
| ARCOArcos Dorados Holdings Inc. | 1.5 bn | 7.0 | 33.2% | 4.5% | +4.7% | −7% / −39% |
| BJRIBj’s Restaurants, Inc. | 1.3 bn | 33.0 | 10.4% | 2.9% | +3.1% | +61% / +106% |
| SGSweetgreen, Inc. | 1.1 bn | 117.9 | 3.1% | 2.0% | +0.4% | +82% / +25% |
| BLMNBloomin’ Brands, Inc. | 939.3 m | 35.1 | 6.7% | 0.7% | +0.1% | +55% / −53% |
| FWRGFirst Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. | 833.3 m | 42.1 | 3.1% | 1.5% | +20.3% | −27% / −25% |
| PZZAPapa John’s International, Inc. | 658.1 m | 25.1 | — | 1.4% | −0.3% | −54% / −71% |
| LOCOEl Pollo Loco Holdings, Inc. | 501.2 m | 14.1 | 11.8% | 7.0% | +3.6% | +51% / +98% |
| DINDine Brands Global, Inc. | 448.6 m | 106.7 | — | 0.4% | +8.2% | +17% / −16% |
| NATHNathan's Famous, Inc. | 418.2 m | 21.1 | — | 11.8% | +9.4% | −4% / +56% |
| PTLOPortillo's Inc. | 336.8 m | 29.8 | 3.0% | 1.9% | +3.0% | +4% / −65% |
| PLAYDave & Buster’s Entertainment, Inc. | 305.8 m | — | -69.7% | -4.3% | −1.4% | −50% / −79% |
| JACKJack In The Box Inc. | 275.6 m | 8.2 | — | 2.4% | −6.7% | −27% / −80% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for PZZA from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (USD)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | 11.79 Total return -38% · Per year -38% | 20.89 Total return 9% · Per year 9% | 31.55 Total return 63% · Per year 63% |
| 3 years | 10.26 Total return -40% · Per year -16% | 20.57 Total return 15% · Per year 5% | 34.27 Total return 87% · Per year 23% |
| 5 years | 8.93 Total return -42% · Per year -10% | 20.26 Total return 22% · Per year 4% | 37.23 Total return 114% · Per year 16% |
- Exit P/E± 5.14
- Net margin± 3.60
- Annual revenue growth± 3.11
- Annual dilution± 0.30
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
In brief
Papa John's International is one of the largest pizza delivery and carryout chains in the world, operating through company-owned restaurants and mainly franchising across more than 50 countries. In 2026 the company is going through a costly transformation: in the second quarter North America comparable sales fell 8.3 percent while the international division grew, and the dividend was suspended to fund the change.
SWOT
Strengths
- A recognised brand built on the 'BETTER INGREDIENTS. BETTER PIZZA.' promise and an extensive global restaurant network.
- A diversified model combining franchise royalties, commissaries and marketing contributions, which can stabilise revenue.
- The international segment shows steady comparable sales growth, suggesting its turnaround is working.
Weaknesses
- North America comparable sales are falling sharply and order volumes have dropped significantly.
- Profitability is under pressure, with net income and adjusted EBITDA nearly flat despite cost reductions.
- Reliance on digital channels and aggregators adds costs and reduces control over the customer relationship.
Opportunities
- Supply chain savings and portfolio optimisation could improve restaurant-level margins.
- The loyalty programme and product innovation could attract new customers and widen the addressable market.
- Refranchising company-owned restaurants could bring in capital and accelerate franchisee growth.
Threats
- Pressure from large competitors using frequent discounts could limit the ability to raise prices.
- Weak discretionary spending and negative consumer sentiment could further depress sales.
- Geopolitical and currency risks may affect international operations and franchisees' ability to pay royalties.
Risks
- Sharp decline in North American saleshigh
North America comparable sales fell steeply in the second quarter of 2026, which could continue if consumer demand stays weak.
- Execution of the transformationhigh
The company acknowledged the transformation is taking longer than expected, and closures and restructuring costs could increase.
- Franchisee healthmedium
Cost pressures and lower sales may affect franchisees' ability to pay royalties and invest in restaurants.
- Competitive and aggregator pressuremedium
Frequent discounting by competitors and aggregator commissions could reduce order profitability.
- International and currency risksmedium
Local currency fluctuations and geopolitical tensions may affect revenues and franchisees' payment capacity abroad.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- If the transformation succeeds, supply chain savings and restaurant optimisation could significantly improve North America margins.
- Steady growth in the international segment could provide lasting support to revenues.
- Freeing capital by suspending the dividend could fund investment in technology, promotions and new products.
What would break the thesis
- If North American sales keep falling, profitability could stay under pressure for a long period.
- Aggressive competition and aggregator commissions could limit the company's ability to recover margins.
- Restructuring costs and technology investment could keep weighing on profitability in the coming years.
What to watch
- Trend in North America comparable salesQ3 2026
- Completion of the refranchising of 28 Florida restaurantsQ3 2026
- Progress on supply chain savings and the 30 million dollars of G&A savings2026
- Rollout of the new point-of-sale system and estimated restructuring charges2027
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
The business
Papa John's International, Inc., a Delaware corporation, operates and franchises pizza delivery and carryout restaurants under the 'Papa Johns' brand, operating since 1984 1. At December 28, 2025 there were 6,083 restaurants, 475 company-owned and 5,608 franchised, in 50 countries and territories 1. By June 28, 2026 the number had fallen to 5,978 restaurants, 469 company-owned 2. The company positions itself on 'BETTER INGREDIENTS. BETTER PIZZA.' and most sales occur through digital channels 1.
The business model combines retail sales at company-owned restaurants, royalties from North American and international franchisees, revenues from commissaries producing dough and supplies, and contributions to the national marketing fund 1. The standard royalty is 5 percent of franchisees' gross revenue 1. The company reports four segments: domestic company-owned restaurants, North America franchising, North America commissaries and International 1.
In the second quarter of 2026 total revenues were 482.4 million dollars, down 8.8 percent year on year, mainly because of domestic company-owned restaurants partly refranchised in December 2025 3. The company announced a transformation program and suspended its dividend from the third quarter of 2026 to retain financial flexibility 3.
Segments
Domestic company-owned restaurants
This segment's revenues fell by more than 37 million dollars in the second quarter of 2026, linked to the refranchising of 85 restaurants in the fourth quarter of 2025 and comparable sales down 8.9 percent 3. The company has approved closure of 17 more company-owned restaurants, most by the end of 2026, and 28 Florida restaurants are due to be refranchised 2.
North America franchising and commissaries
North America franchising declined because of weaker comparable sales at franchised restaurants, while commissary revenues fell on lower volumes, partly offset by higher pricing 3. The company targets at least 60 million dollars of North America supply chain savings over two years 2.
Market context
The company describes the US pizza QSR market as mature and highly competitive, with competition based on price, value, service and innovation 1. Consumption is pressured by weaker consumer sentiment and discretionary spending 13. International markets show more resilience, but exposure to geopolitical and currency risks remains high 1.
Digital channels and delivery aggregators have become a major part of the industry, increasing pressure on margins and customer loyalty 12. The company says it is now refining a more selective aggregator strategy while expanding its Papa Rewards loyalty programme 23.
Trends
- Weaker North American demandheadwind
North America comparable sales fell 8.3 percent in the second quarter of 2026, reflecting a tougher consumer environment and lower order volumes 3. If this persists, pressure on franchise and company-owned revenues could continue.
- International growthtailwind
International comparable sales rose 1.5 percent in the second quarter of 2026, and system sales in that division grew 5 percent 3. This could support franchise revenues if the pace is sustained.
- Cost transformation and restaurant closuresmixed
The Enterprise Transformation Plan led to the closure of 101 North America restaurants in the first half of 2026 and a corporate workforce cut of about 7 percent 2. Promised savings could improve margins, but restructuring costs and closures may weigh temporarily on revenue.
- Technology investment and new point-of-sale systemmixed
The company is moving all US restaurants to a new point-of-sale system, expected to be fully deployed by the end of 2027, which may bring accelerated depreciation 2. The investment could improve customer experience, but profitability pressure persists during the transition.
Competitive position
The company faces large competitors that use frequent discounts, promotions and heavy advertising, as well as local pizza delivery chains, fast casual concepts and delivery services 1. Competition for customers, employees, sites and franchisees is intense and can limit the ability to hold prices 1.
Delivery aggregators and supermarket prepared-meal offerings compete directly for orders and online traffic, and the company warns they can reduce order profitability 1. The differentiation strategy based on ingredient quality can mean higher costs than some competitors 1.
- Large pizza QSR competitors
Described in the source as large competitors using aggressive discounting and promotions to win market share.
- Local pizza delivery chains
Local pizza delivery restaurants competing in smaller geographic areas.
- Fast casual pizza concepts
Restaurants closer to a casual dining format, preferred by some consumers over classic delivery.
- Delivery aggregators and online ordering services
Platforms competing for orders, traffic and drivers that can change order economics.
Links, dependencies and risks
Who the company is tied to, from its own SEC filings (customers, suppliers, production, partners, competitors, countries, regulation), from the 5 %+ holders' statements (13D/13G) and from what other companies say about it. Click a node for its evidence; on a listed company the graph moves to it.
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News & filings
In the press
- Papa Johns refranchises 28 Florida locationsYahoo Finance — News · 26 Aug 2026 · EN
- Papa Johns Sales Are Down in the U.S. — But It Just Found a New Growth Partner on the Other Side of the BorderYahoo Finance — News · 26 Aug 2026 · EN
- Papa Johns Refranchises 28 Restaurants in Orlando MarketYahoo Finance — News · 26 Aug 2026 · EN
- Papa Johns adds a new franchise partner in MexicoYahoo Finance — News · 24 Aug 2026 · EN
- Papa Johns Can Predict When Your Fridge Is EmptyHacker News · 02 Jul 2026 · EN
SEC filings
- Current report25 Aug 2026Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
- Quarterly report06 Aug 2026
- Current report06 Aug 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report30 Jun 2026Departure or appointment of officers · Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
- Quarterly report07 May 2026
- Current report07 May 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report06 May 2026Shareholder vote
- Proxy statement26 Mar 2026
- Annual report26 Feb 2026
- Current report26 Feb 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
Sources
- [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2025-12-28 · SEC / Papa John's International, Inc. · 26 Feb 2026
- [2] Form 10-Q, quarter ended 2026-06-28 · SEC / Papa John's International, Inc. · 06 Aug 2026
- [3] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / Papa John's International, Inc. · 06 Aug 2026
Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.