olivLaw · US equity research
McDonald's Corporation MCD
Retail-Eating Places · SIC 5812 · Vertical: Retail-Eating Places (SIC 5812)
In the second quarter of 2026, McDonald's reported consolidated revenues of $7,099 million, up 4%, and Systemwide sales reached $37 billion, up 5%. The company operates more than 46,028 restaurants, about 95% of them franchised, and diluted earnings per share were $3.32.
The AI analysis may be outdated: new filings came after its sources (see the «AI analysis» section).
At the close of 05 Nov 2026, McDonald's Corporation (MCD) stock was 278.04 USD (−0.78% on the day), with market capitalisation 196.8 bn USD, P/E 0.0 on diluted EPS of 3,030,710.87 USD over the last 12 months, dividend yield 2.64%, beta 0.16, 52-week range 230.88–341.06 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q2 2026): revenue of 7.1 bn USD (+3.7% YoY), net income of 2.4 bn USD (+4.8% YoY), diluted EPS 3.32 USD.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
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Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 75.8
- overbought (≥ 70)
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 225.82 – 276.20
- above the upper band · %B 1.04 · band width 20.1%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 248.44 / 282.50
- mixed trend
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- 7.41 / 3.63
- MACD above signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | S&P 500 | vs S&P 500 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | +19.6% | −5.9% | +25.6 pp | — |
| 3 months | +0.6% | −4.6% | +5.3 pp | — |
| 6 months | −2.0% | +0.2% | −2.2 pp | — |
| Year to date | −9.0% | +7.4% | −16.5 pp | — |
| 1 year | −9.0% | +8.2% | −17.2 pp | +3.4% |
| 3 years | +3.4% | +68.4% | −65.0 pp | −17.5% |
| 5 years | +9.2% | +56.5% | −47.4 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
Latest quarter: Q2 2026 · 30 Jun 2026
Quarterly margins
Quarterly statements · USD
| Fiscal year | Q3 '24 | Q4 '24 | Q1 '25 | Q2 '25 | Q3 '25 | Q4 '25 | Q1 '26 | Q2 '26 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 6.9 bn | 6.4 bn | 6.0 bn | 6.8 bn | 7.1 bn | 7.0 bn | 6.5 bn | 7.1 bn |
| Cost of revenue | 646.0 m | — | 620.0 m | 654.0 m | 666.0 m | — | 676.0 m | 680.0 m |
| SG&A | 647.0 m | 799.0 m | 682.0 m | 700.0 m | 785.0 m | 872.0 m | 759.0 m | 817.0 m |
| Operating income | 3.2 bn | 2.9 bn | 2.6 bn | 3.2 bn | 3.4 bn | 3.2 bn | 3.0 bn | 3.3 bn |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 111.0 m | 136.0 m | 107.0 m | 106.0 m | 121.0 m | 124.0 m | 111.0 m | 111.0 m |
| Interest expense | 381.0 m | 380.0 m | 376.0 m | 390.0 m | 406.0 m | 410.0 m | 400.0 m | 409.0 m |
| Income tax | 588.0 m | 521.0 m | 461.0 m | 608.0 m | 671.0 m | 594.0 m | 559.0 m | 574.0 m |
| Net income | 2.3 bn | 2.0 bn | 1.9 bn | 2.3 bn | 2.3 bn | 2.2 bn | 2.0 bn | 2.4 bn |
| Diluted EPS | 3.13 | 2,801,878.07 ≈ | 2.60 | 3.14 | 3.18 | 3,030,701.59 ≈ | 2.78 | 3.32 |
| Operating cash flow | 2.7 bn | 2.6 bn | 2.4 bn | 2.0 bn | 3.4 bn | 2.7 bn | 2.4 bn | 2.8 bn |
| Capex | 794.0 m | 807.0 m | 551.0 m | 744.0 m | 1.0 bn | 1.1 bn | 682.0 m | 831.0 m |
| Dividends paid | 1.2 bn | 1.3 bn | 1.3 bn | 1.3 bn | 1.3 bn | 1.3 bn | 1.3 bn | 1.3 bn |
| Share repurchases | 469.0 m | 503.0 m | 477.0 m | 505.0 m | 501.0 m | 573.0 m | 396.0 m | 856.0 m |
≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Today's P/E sits at the 6 percentile of its own 35-quarter history (min 0.0, median 23.1, max 34.0; quarters with earnings only).
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 21.3 bn | 21.4 bn | 19.2 bn | 23.2 bn | 23.2 bn | 25.5 bn | 25.9 bn | 26.9 bn |
| Revenue YoY | −6.8% | +0.5% | −10.1% | +20.9% | −0.2% | +10.0% | +1.7% | +3.7% |
| Net income | 5.9 bn | 6.0 bn | 4.7 bn | 7.5 bn | 6.2 bn | 8.5 bn | 8.2 bn | 8.6 bn |
| Net income YoY | +14.1% | +1.7% | −21.5% | +59.5% | −18.1% | +37.1% | −2.9% | +4.1% |
| Diluted EPS | 7.54 | 7.88 | 6.31 | 10.04 | 8.33 | 11.56 | 11.39 | 11.95 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | +18.4% | +4.5% | −19.9% | +59.1% | −17.0% | +38.8% | −1.5% | +4.9% |
| net % | 27.9% | 28.2% | 24.6% | 32.5% | 26.6% | 33.2% | 31.7% | 31.9% |
| Free cash flow | 4.2 bn | 5.7 bn | 4.6 bn | 7.1 bn | 5.5 bn | 7.3 bn | 6.7 bn | 7.2 bn |
Reported results vs expectations
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Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025
- Cash
- 774.0 m USD
- Financial debt
- 40.7 bn USD
- Net debt
- 39.9 bn USD
- Equity
- -1.8 bn USD
- Total assets
- 59.5 bn USD
- Debt / equity
- unavailable
- Current ratio
- 0.95x
- ROE
- unavailable
- ROA
- 14.9%
- FCF margin
- 26.7%
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (USD)
Margins
Income statement · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 19.2 bn | 23.2 bn | 23.2 bn | 25.5 bn | 25.9 bn | 26.9 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified |
| SG&A | — | — | 2.9 bn | 2.8 bn | 2.9 bn | 3.0 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified |
| Operating income | 7.3 bn | 10.4 bn | 9.4 bn | 11.6 bn | 11.7 bn | 12.4 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 300.6 m | 329.7 m | 370.0 m | 382.0 m | 447.0 m | 457.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified |
| EBITDA | 7.6 bn ≈ | 10.7 bn ≈ | 9.7 bn ≈ | 12.0 bn ≈ | 12.2 bn ≈ | 12.9 bn ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026derived |
| Interest expense | 1.2 bn | 1.2 bn | 1.2 bn | 1.4 bn | 1.5 bn | 1.6 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified |
| Income tax | 1.4 bn | 1.6 bn | 1.6 bn | 2.1 bn | 2.1 bn | 2.3 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified |
| Net income | 4.7 bn | 7.5 bn | 6.2 bn | 8.5 bn | 8.2 bn | 8.6 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | 6.31 | 10.04 | 8.33 | 11.56 | 11.39 | 11.95 | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified |
| Weighted average diluted shares | 750.1 m | 752 | 741 | 732 | 722 | 716 | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified |
| Dividend per share | 5.04 | 5.25 | 5.66 | 6.23 | 6.78 | 7.17 | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating income + Depreciation & amortisation.
Balance sheet · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 3.4 bn | 4.7 bn | 2.6 bn | 4.6 bn | 1.1 bn | 774.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified |
| Inventories | 51.1 m | 55.6 m | 52.0 m | 53.0 m | 56.0 m | 61.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified |
| Current assets | 6.2 bn | 7.1 bn | 5.4 bn | 8.0 bn | 4.6 bn | 4.2 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | 25.0 bn | 24.7 bn | 23.8 bn | 24.9 bn | 25.3 bn | 28.2 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified |
| Goodwill | 2.8 bn | 2.8 bn | 2.9 bn | 3.0 bn | 3.1 bn | 3.4 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified |
| Total assets | 52.6 bn | 53.9 bn | 50.4 bn | 56.1 bn | 55.2 bn | 59.5 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified |
| Accounts payable | 741.3 m | 1.0 bn | 980.2 m | 1.1 bn | 1.0 bn | 1.1 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified |
| Short-term debt | 2.2 bn | 0 | 0 | 2.2 bn | 0 | 725.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified |
| Long-term debt | 35.2 bn | 35.6 bn | 35.9 bn | 37.2 bn | 38.4 bn | 40.0 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified |
| Current liabilities | 6.2 bn | 4.0 bn | 3.8 bn | 6.9 bn | 3.9 bn | 4.4 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified |
| Equity | -7.8 bn † | -4.6 bn † | -6.0 bn † | -4.7 bn † | -3.8 bn † | -1.8 bn † | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified |
† equity attributable to the parent's shareholders: in these years the issuer no longer reports the total including non-controlling interests.
Cash flow · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | 6.3 bn | 9.1 bn | 7.4 bn | 9.6 bn | 9.4 bn | 10.6 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified |
| Capex | 1.6 bn | 2.0 bn | 1.9 bn | 2.4 bn | 2.8 bn | 3.4 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified |
| Free cash flow | 4.6 bn ≈ | 7.1 bn ≈ | 5.5 bn ≈ | 7.3 bn ≈ | 6.7 bn ≈ | 7.2 bn ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026derived |
| Investing cash flow | -1.5 bn | -2.2 bn | -2.7 bn | -3.2 bn | -5.3 bn | -3.8 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified |
| Financing cash flow | -2.2 bn | -5.6 bn | -6.6 bn | -4.4 bn | -7.5 bn | -7.1 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified |
| Dividends paid | 3.8 bn | 3.9 bn | 4.2 bn | 4.5 bn | 4.9 bn | 5.1 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified |
| Share repurchases | 907.8 m | 845.5 m | 3.9 bn | 3.1 bn | 2.8 bn | 2.1 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating cash flow − Capex.
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
Score: 61 / 100
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
05 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 196.8 bn USD
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
- Growth64
- Returns63
- Balance sheet52
- Valuation53
- Quality92
Estimated value range
The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 74.27 – 95,328,170.03 USD.
Methods computed but outside the aggregate range: Dividend discount (DDM) (a small share of earnings is paid as dividends (capital returns through buybacks): the dividend model does not describe the value and stays outside the aggregate).
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Method ranges (USD per share)
— — Mid · ▏ Price
Valuation methods
- DCF (discounted cash flow)132.61 – 245.63 (Mid 175.27)WACC 8.6% · starting FCFF 9.1 bn USD · terminal value share of EV 75%The WACC × g sensitivity gives the method's bounds; these are not probabilities.Reverse DCF: starting growth implied by the price (fading linearly to terminal growth, everything else fixed): 22.2%
- Peers: EV/EBITDA74.27 – 181.28 (Mid 117.57)21 companies used · median multiple 9.2x · quartiles 6.9x – 12.6xARCO, ARMK, BDL, BJRI, BLMN, CAKE, DRI, FWRG, GTIM, LOCO, NATH, PLAY, PTLO, PZZA, QSR, RICK, RRGB, STKS, TXRH, YUM, YUMC
- Peers: P/E51,917,197.44 – 95,328,170.03 (Mid 65,864,839.61)22 companies used · median multiple 21.7x · quartiles 17.1x – 31.5xARCO, ARMK, BDL, BJRI, BLMN, CAKE, CMG, DRI, EAT, FWRG, GTIM, JACK, LOCO, MB, NATH, PTLO, PZZA, QSR, TXRH, WING, YUM, YUMC
- Dividend discount (DDM)outside the aggregate94.22 – 126.71 (Mid 108.08)a small share of earnings is paid as dividends (capital returns through buybacks): the dividend model does not describe the value and stays outside the aggregate
Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 4.3%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 9.3%
- Terminal growth
- 2.5%
Factor scorecard
Neutral profile · Score 61/100
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net margin · Quality | 31.7% | 100 (vs peers) | 7% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | 88.3% | 83 (on a fixed band) | 7% |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | 5.1% | 42 (on a fixed band) | 9% |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | 12.8% | 85 (on a fixed band) | 9% |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | 2.9x | 35 (vs peers) | 12% |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | 7.9x | 98 (on a fixed band) | 7% |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 1.1x | 23 (on a fixed band) | 5% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | 0.0x | 100 (vs peers) | 12% |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | 17.8x | 9 (vs peers) | 12% |
| FCF yield · Valuation | 3.9% | 49 (on a fixed band) | 9% |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | 3.8% | 55 (on a fixed band) | 7% |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | 67.3% | 75 (on a fixed band) | 5% |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet52/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
- Growth64/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
- Quality92/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
- Returns63/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
- Valuation53/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
Memo
McDONALD’S CORPORATION (MCD). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2026-06-30.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 26.9 bn USD in 2025; YoY growth 3.7%; net margin 31.7%; net debt/EBITDA 2.9x.
The estimated value range is 132.61–245.63 USD per share (median of 3 methods, agreement: low); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 175.27 USD, the price of 278.04 USD leaves a potential of -37.0% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of -58.6% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
olivLaw score 61/100, methodological classification: neutral profile (score, margin of safety and method agreement together; not a judgement of the right price). Not investment advice.
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- Net margin: 31.7%
- FCF conversion: 88.3%
- EPS CAGR 3Y: 12.8%
- Interest coverage: 7.9x
- P/E (TTM): 0.0x
- Payout ratio (FCF): 67.3%
What contradicts it
- Current ratio: 1.1x
- EV/EBITDA: 17.8x
- The price is above the estimated value range
- The valuation methods diverge
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): ROIC.
Versus the vertical median
Retail-Eating Places (SIC 5812) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 39 companies
The size band was not applied: too few companies would have remained; the vertical includes much smaller or larger companies.
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MCDMcDONALD’S CORPORATION | 196.8 bn | 0.0 | — | 31.7% | +3.7% | −9% / +3% |
| YUMYum! Brands, Inc. | 45.3 bn | 20.9 | — | 25.4% | +8.8% | +8% / +32% |
| CMGChipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. | 44.8 bn | 33.1 | 48.5% | 10.8% | +5.4% | +3% / −20% |
| DRIDarden Restaurants, Inc. | 25.9 bn | 22.3 | 55.1% | 8.8% | +9.4% | +27% / +46% |
| QSRRestaurant Brands International Inc. | 24.9 bn | 18.3 | 53.8% | 20.1% | +12.2% | +9% / +11% |
| YUMCYum China Holdings, Inc. | 16.8 bn | 17.4 | 18.2% | 7.9% | +4.4% | +3% / +15% |
| ARMKAramark | 13.3 bn | 35.3 | 11.8% | 1.9% | +6.4% | +35% / +80% |
| TXRHTexas Roadhouse, Inc. | 12.6 bn | 30.6 | 28.1% | 6.8% | +9.4% | +9% / +70% |
| EATBrinker International, Inc. | 8.8 bn | 18.7 | 134.7% | 8.4% | +7.9% | +38% / +491% |
| CAVACAVA Group, Inc. | 7.0 bn | 108.4 | 7.9% | 4.5% | +22.4% | +23% / +76% |
| HDLSuper Hi International Holding Ltd. | 6.4 bn | 247.5 | 6.9% | 2.8% | +13.4% | −46% / unavailable |
| CAKEThe Cheesecake Factory Incorporated | 5.5 bn | 26.3 | 41.6% | 5.2% | +4.7% | +132% / +253% |
| WINGWingstop Inc. | 4.5 bn | 38.9 | — | 16.0% | +11.4% | −37% / −31% |
| ARCOArcos Dorados Holdings Inc. | 1.5 bn | 6.9 | 33.2% | 4.5% | +4.7% | −8% / −40% |
| BJRIBj’s Restaurants, Inc. | 1.2 bn | 31.2 | 10.4% | 2.9% | +3.1% | +52% / +95% |
| SGSweetgreen, Inc. | 1.1 bn | 115.4 | 3.1% | 2.0% | +0.4% | +78% / +23% |
| BLMNBloomin’ Brands, Inc. | 896.5 m | 33.5 | 6.7% | 0.7% | +0.1% | +47% / −55% |
| FWRGFirst Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. | 809.9 m | 40.9 | 3.1% | 1.5% | +20.3% | −29% / −27% |
| PZZAPapa John’s International, Inc. | 655.2 m | 26.3 | — | 1.4% | −0.3% | −53% / −70% |
| LOCOEl Pollo Loco Holdings, Inc. | 500.9 m | 14.1 | 11.8% | 7.0% | +3.6% | +51% / +98% |
| DINDine Brands Global, Inc. | 441.1 m | 105.0 | — | 0.4% | +8.2% | +15% / −17% |
| PTLOPortillo's Inc. | 433.8 m | 31.5 | 3.6% | 2.3% | +3.0% | +34% / −55% |
| NATHNathan's Famous, Inc. | 418.2 m | 21.1 | — | 11.8% | +9.4% | −4% / +56% |
| PLAYDave & Buster’s Entertainment, Inc. | 283.7 m | — | -69.7% | -4.3% | −1.4% | −53% / −80% |
| JACKJack In The Box Inc. | 274.8 m | 8.2 | — | 2.4% | −6.7% | −27% / −80% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for MCD from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (USD)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | 0.00 Total return -100% · Per year -100% | 0.00 Total return -100% · Per year -100% | 0.00 Total return -100% · Per year -100% |
| 3 years | 0.00 Total return -100% · Per year -99% | 0.00 Total return -100% · Per year -98% | 0.00 Total return -100% · Per year -98% |
| 5 years | 0.00 Total return -100% · Per year -92% | 0.00 Total return -100% · Per year -91% | 0.00 Total return -100% · Per year -90% |
- Exit P/E± 0.00
- Net margin± 0.00
- Annual revenue growth± 0.00
- Annual dilution± 0.00
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 07 Aug 2026; since then the company filed 8-K (04 Nov 2026 · results).
In brief
In the second quarter of 2026, McDonald's reported consolidated revenues of $7,099 million, up 4% 2, and Systemwide sales reached $37 billion, up 5% 2. The company operates more than 46,028 restaurants, about 95% of them franchised 1, and diluted earnings per share were $3.32 2.
SWOT
Strengths
Weaknesses
Opportunities
Risks
- Lower U.S. guest countshigh
U.S. comparable sales were supported by pricing rather than customer numbers, which could limit growth 2.
- Dependence on franchiseesmedium
Most restaurants are franchised, so the financial health of franchisees affects company revenue 1.
- Restructuring costslow
The Accelerating the Organization program has produced recurring charges, which could affect short-term margins 2.
- Currency exposuremedium
Differences between reported and constant-currency results show the effect of exchange rate changes 2.
- Execution of the NEXT strategymedium
The success of the new strategy depends on execution, and its results remain uncertain 1.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- If sales growth among loyalty members continues, the company could keep its advantage over competitors.
- The franchise model with real estate ownership could generate stable revenue even during slowdowns.
- Diluted earnings per share growth remained positive, which points to operational discipline.
What would break the thesis
- If U.S. guest counts keep falling, overall growth could slow.
- Repeated restructuring costs could erode margins if the program does not end.
- Currency effects could reduce reported dollar growth in periods of a strong dollar.
What to watch
- U.S. comparable sales trend after the appointment of the new President of McDonald's USAQ3 2026
- Results of the loyalty program and the number of active usersQ3 2026
- Impact of the McDonald's > NEXT strategy on sales and margins2027
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 07 Aug 2026; since then the company filed 8-K (04 Nov 2026 · results).
The business
Under conventional franchise arrangements the company generally owns or leases the land and building, while franchisees fund equipment and décor 1. Developmental licenses and affiliates, used mainly in China and Japan, generate royalties for the company 1. The company says this mix provides stable and predictable revenue 1.
Segments
Market context
McDonald's operates in more than 100 countries with a franchise-dominated network 1. Systemwide sales of $37 billion in the second quarter of 2026 indicate the size of the market the network covers 2.
In the United States, comparable sales grew only 0.8% in the second quarter of 2026, compared with 2.5% a year earlier 2. This slowdown makes the U.S. market an area of attention 2.
Trends
- U.S. pressureheadwind
In the U.S., comparable sales were supported by check growth but guest counts were negative 2. If this persists, growth in the largest market could stay limited.
- Restructuring chargesmixed
Restructuring charges tied to Accelerating the Organization were $52 million in the second quarter of 2026 2. They are presented as discrete items, but could continue if the program is extended.
- NEXT strategymixed
The McDonald's > NEXT strategy, introduced in June 2026, aims to sustain growth through menu, experience and digital 1. Its effect depends on execution and future results.
Competitive position
The supplied sources do not name specific competitors. The company points instead to the strength of its global brand and the scale of its operations as the basis of its position 1.
The main competitive advantage cited is the combination of the franchise model with real estate ownership, which supports high restaurant performance 1. The company states its aim to be the first choice of customers 1.
- Other quick-service restaurant operators
The sources do not name specific competitors; the company is compared with restaurant chains in the same category.
- Local restaurant operators
Local competition is referred to indirectly through menu adaptation to local markets 1.
- Digital delivery platforms
The company is expanding its delivery and digital capabilities, indicating competition in this channel 1.
- Restaurant chains in Asia
The sources mention competition in China, where comparable sales were negative 2.
Links, dependencies and risks
Who the company is tied to, from its own SEC filings (customers, suppliers, production, partners, competitors, countries, regulation), from the 5 %+ holders' statements (13D/13G) and from what other companies say about it. Click a node for its evidence; on a listed company the graph moves to it.
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News & filings
In the press
- Amenințări cu bombă la mai multe redacții din Irlanda. Postul public RTÉ a primit un mesaj care anunța o explozie în 45 de minuteLibertatea.ro · 06 Nov 2026 · RO
- Trump’s final two years: Is the UK ready?Politico EU · 06 Nov 2026 · EN
- Investigation links Australian deforestation to beef farming and major bank loansPhys.org · 05 Nov 2026 · EN
- FOTO Investiție în România. Suedezii care produc în România chifle McDonald’s pregătesc o nouă linie de producțieProfit.ro · 05 Nov 2026 · RO
- Estonia approves 24/7 robotic pharmacies, paving the way for a European firstTech.eu · 05 Nov 2026 · EN
- Fractal basin geometry and the limits to predictability and reproducibility in deep learningNature Machine Intelligence · 05 Nov 2026 · EN
- McDonald’s tests new value menu as fast-food discount wars heat upMarketWatch — Top Stories · 04 Nov 2026 · EN
- McDonald's wages war on KFC in Japan as consumers crave chickenNikkei Asia · 04 Nov 2026 · EN
- Prețul unui Big Mac este „recomandat” de IA / Cum estimează McDonald’s prețul pe care să-l perceapă în fiecare zonă în parte / Se bazează inclusiv pe ”disponibilitatea de a plăti a clienților din zonă”G4Media · 04 Nov 2026 · RO
- McDonald’s depășește estimările de profit în Q3 2026, dar vânzările SUA rămân sub presiune - www.goldring.roSurge — Google News · 04 Nov 2026 · RO
- Stocks making the biggest moves midday: CoreWeave, Micron, Booking Holdings, McDonald's, CVS Health & moreCNBC — Top News · 04 Nov 2026 · EN
- New Research Tests Whether AI Models Know Their Own ThoughtsQuanta Magazine · 04 Nov 2026 · EN
- McDonald’s profit climbs 9% as US restaurant traffic fallsAnadolu Agency (TR, EN) · 04 Nov 2026 · EN
- Popular Chinese Restaurant Chain Makes Budapest DebutHungary Today (HU, EN) · 04 Nov 2026 · EN
- McDonald's is about to report earnings. Here's what to expectCNBC — Top News · 04 Nov 2026 · EN
- US lawmakers, in letter, question McDonald’s CEO about algorithmic pricing practicesCNA (Channel NewsAsia) · 03 Nov 2026 · EN
- How Russia is locating Ukraine's arms factories using open sources – and what needs to be done about itUkrainska Pravda (UA, EN) · 03 Nov 2026 · EN
- How McDonald's first got its startHacker News · 03 Nov 2026 · EN
- СПБ Биржа расширила перечень торгуемых неоактивовKommersant (RU) · 02 Nov 2026 · RU
- Din online, direct în viața reală: Ani-K Mania a transformat Mega Mall în locul de întâlnire al fanilor de anime, cosplay și K-popLibertatea.ro · 02 Nov 2026 · RO
SEC filings
- Current report04 Nov 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report23 Sept 2026Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
- Quarterly report07 Aug 2026
- Current report04 Aug 2026Departure or appointment of officers · Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report04 Aug 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report22 May 2026Shareholder vote
- Quarterly report07 May 2026
- Current report07 May 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Proxy statement07 Apr 2026
- Current report (amendment)02 Apr 2026Departure or appointment of officers
Sources
- [1] Form 10-Q, quarter ended 2026-06-30 · SEC / McDonald's Corporation · 07 Aug 2026
- [2] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / McDonald's Corporation · 04 Aug 2026
Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.