olivLaw · US equity research
TWFG, Inc. TWFG
Insurance Agents, Brokers & Service · SIC 6411 · Vertical: Insurance Agents, Brokers & Service (SIC 6411)
TWFG is an independent distribution platform for personal and commercial insurance in the United States, linking independent agents with more than 300 insurance carriers. Revenue grew strongly in fiscal 2025 and in the second quarter of 2026, driven by network expansion and MGA programs, which makes the company relevant for investors and market observers.
The AI analysis may be outdated: new filings came after its sources (see the «AI analysis» section).
At the close of 05 Nov 2026, TWFG, Inc. (TWFG) stock was 28.96 USD (−2.10% on the day), with P/E 10.4 on diluted EPS of 2.78 USD over the last 12 months, beta 0.30, 52-week range 17.04–31.15 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q3 2026): revenue of 79.9 m USD (+24.6% YoY), net income of 1.2 m USD (−31.9% YoY), diluted EPS 0.09 USD.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
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Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 62.0
- strong (55–70)
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 23.26 – 30.33
- in the upper half of the band · %B 0.81 · band width 26.4%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 26.64 / 23.17
- uptrend (price > SMA50 > SMA200)
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- 0.82 / 0.54
- MACD above signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | S&P 500 | vs S&P 500 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | +15.8% | −5.9% | +21.7 pp | — |
| 3 months | +1.4% | −4.6% | +6.0 pp | — |
| 6 months | +49.7% | +0.2% | +49.4 pp | — |
| Year to date | +0.7% | +7.4% | −6.8 pp | — |
| 1 year | +15.6% | +8.2% | +7.4 pp | −3.0% |
| 3 years | unavailable | +68.4% | unavailable | +4.0% |
| 5 years | unavailable | +56.5% | unavailable | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
Latest quarter: Q3 2026 · 30 Sept 2026
Quarterly margins
Quarterly statements · USD
| Fiscal year | Q4 '24 | Q1 '25 | Q2 '25 | Q3 '25 | Q4 '25 | Q1 '26 | Q2 '26 | Q3 '26 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 51.7 m | 53.8 m | 60.3 m | 64.1 m | 70.3 m | 72.8 m | 87.5 m | 79.9 m |
| Operating income | 7.1 m | 5.7 m | 7.4 m | 9.0 m | 14.9 m | 12.4 m | 17.6 m | 9.0 m |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 3.1 m | 3.4 m | 3.9 m | 5.3 m | 5.8 m | 6.2 m | 7.1 m | 7.5 m |
| Interest expense | 98.0 k | 83.0 k | 68.0 k | 70.0 k | 66.0 k | 62.0 k | 57.0 k | 75.0 k |
| Pre-tax income | 9.2 m | 7.5 m | 9.6 m | 10.6 m | 16.7 m | 14.2 m | 18.3 m | 9.6 m |
| Income tax | 1.1 m | 656.0 k | 620.0 k | 977.0 k | 1.0 m | 1.1 m | 1.0 m | 601.0 k |
| Net income | 8.2 m | 1.3 m | 2.0 m | 1.7 m | 36.1 m | 1.8 m | 2.4 m | 1.2 m |
| Diluted EPS | 0.53 ≈ | 0.09 | 0.13 | 0.11 | 2.39 ≈ | 0.12 | 0.18 | 0.09 |
| Operating cash flow | 11.6 m | 15.6 m | 9.6 m ≈ | 15.0 m ≈ | 13.3 m | 22.7 m | 9.8 m ≈ | 10.6 m ≈ |
| Capex | 2.9 m | 15.0 k | 44.0 k ≈ | 69.0 k ≈ | 228.0 k | 292.0 k | 505.0 k ≈ | 164.0 k ≈ |
| Share repurchases | — | 0 | 0 ≈ | 0 ≈ | — | 16.6 m | 26.3 m ≈ | 0 ≈ |
≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Today's P/E sits at the 57 percentile of its own 7-quarter history (min 2.8, median 8.6, max 41.9; quarters with earnings only).
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 153.9 m | 172.0 m | 203.8 m | 248.5 m |
| Revenue YoY | unavailable | +11.8% | +18.4% | +22.0% |
| Net income | 0 | 0 | 2.7 m | 41.2 m |
| Net income YoY | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | +1,399.7% |
| Diluted EPS | unavailable | unavailable | 0.19 | 0.53 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | +178.9% |
| net % | 0.0% | 0.0% | 1.3% | 16.6% |
| Free cash flow | 25.6 m | 29.9 m | 37.3 m | 53.1 m |
Reported results vs expectations
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Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025
- Cash
- 155.9 m USD
- Financial debt
- 4.0 m USD
- Net debt
- -151.9 m USD
- Equity
- 298.7 m USD
- Total assets
- 372.3 m USD
- Debt / equity
- 0.01x
- Current ratio
- 5.12x
- ROE
- 14.3%
- ROA
- 11.8%
- FCF margin
- 21.4%
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (USD)
Income statement · USD
| Line | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pre-tax income | 23.3 m | 25.3 m | 30.1 m | 44.4 m | SEC (XBRL)· 10 Mar 2026verified |
| Net income | 0 | 0 | 2.7 m | 41.2 m | SEC (XBRL)· 10 Mar 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | — | — | 0.19 | 0.53 | SEC (XBRL)· 10 Mar 2026verified |
Balance sheet · USD
| Line | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 22.3 m | 39.3 m | 195.8 m | 155.9 m | SEC (XBRL)· 10 Mar 2026verified |
| Total assets | — | 115.4 m | 323.4 m | 372.3 m | SEC (XBRL)· 10 Mar 2026verified |
| Short-term debt | — | 2.4 m | 1.9 m | 2.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 10 Mar 2026verified |
| Long-term debt | — | 48.0 m | 4.0 m | 2.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 10 Mar 2026verified |
| Total liabilities | — | 84.4 m | 48.1 m | 55.7 m | SEC (XBRL)· 10 Mar 2026verified |
| Equity | — | 31.1 m | 275.3 m | 298.7 m | SEC (XBRL)· 10 Mar 2026verified |
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Market and valuation
Insurance
32 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
- indicators available: 4 of at least 6
- score weight coverage: 48.0% of at least 60%
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
05 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: unavailable
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
48% · Insufficient data
Estimated value range
The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 46.28 – 105.57 USD.
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Method ranges (USD per share)
— — Mid · ▏ Price
Valuation methods
- Residual incomeunavailable · input data missing
- Justified P/Bunavailable · input data missing
- Dividend discount (DDM)unavailable · the company pays no dividend: a dividend model needs an explicit initiation assumption
- Peers: P/E46.28 – 105.57 (Mid 65.70)12 companies used · median multiple 23.6x · quartiles 16.7x – 38.0xACT, AJG, AON, BRO, CRVL, EQH, GSHD, MRSH, RYAN, SLQT, WDH, WTW
- Peers: P/Bunavailable · input data missing
Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 4.3%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 9.3%
- Terminal growth
- 2.5%
Factor scorecard
Insufficient data
Minimum-evidence gate: indicators available: 4 of at least 6; score weight coverage: 48.0% of at least 60%
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROE · Quality | 65.4% | 96 (vs peers) | 38% |
| Loss ratio · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | 17.3% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 17% |
| ROA · Balance sheet | 11.7% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 17% |
| P/B · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | 10.4x | 79 (vs peers) | 29% |
| Dividend yield · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Payout ratio (EPS) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet100/100 · 1/1 factors with a value
- Growth· partial100/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
- Quality· partial96/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
- Returns· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
- Valuation· partial79/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
TWFG, Inc. (TWFG). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2026-09-30.
Figures computed from the financial statements: YoY growth 22.0%; net margin 13.3%; ROE 65.4%.
The estimated value range is 46.28–105.57 USD per share (median of 1 methods, agreement: single method); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 65.70 USD, the price of 28.96 USD leaves a potential of 126.9% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of 55.9% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
Insufficient data for a verdict (indicators available: 4 of at least 6; score weight coverage: 48.0% of at least 60%).
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- ROE: 65.4%
- Revenue CAGR 3Y: 17.3%
- ROA: 11.7%
- P/E (TTM): 10.4x
- The price is below the estimated value range
What contradicts it
No signal among the computed factors. That is not an absence of risk: factors without data were not assessed, and business risks (margins, inventory, demand) are in the source-based analysis.
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): Loss ratio, EPS CAGR 3Y, P/B, Dividend yield, Payout ratio (EPS).
Versus the vertical median
Insurance Agents, Brokers & Service (SIC 6411) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 29 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MRSHMarsh & Mclennan Companies, Inc. | 99.6 bn | 25.1 | 26.7% | 14.2% | +10.3% | +14% / +5% |
| XHGXChange TEC.INC | 83.6 bn | — | — | -204.9% | +24.9% | +244% / −100% |
| AJGArthur J. Gallagher & Co. | 73.9 bn | 43.5 | 7.2% | 10.4% | +20.7% | +16% / +16% |
| AONAon plc | 73.1 bn | 18.9 | 43.6% | 22.2% | +9.4% | −3% / +5% |
| WTWWillis Towers Watson PLC | 31.0 bn | 20.5 | 20.2% | 15.2% | −2.2% | +5% / +37% |
| BROBrown & Brown, Inc. | 24.7 bn | 22.2 | 9.7% | 17.6% | +22.8% | −8% / −0% |
| EQHEquitable Holdings, Inc. | 14.1 bn | 10.1 | — | 11.5% | −6.1% | +13% / +72% |
| AIFUAIFU Inc. | 9.7 bn | — | -155.9% | -408.8% | −67.9% | −85% / −100% |
| ACTEnact Holdings, Inc. | 6.4 bn | 10.0 | 12.9% | 54.1% | +2.8% | +23% / +72% |
| HGTYHagerty, Inc. | 6.4 bn | 106.0 | 25.6% | 4.4% | +17.3% | +37% / +117% |
| RYANRyan Specialty Holdings, Inc. | 5.3 bn | 50.7 | 19.4% | 3.2% | +21.3% | −17% / +5% |
| CRVLCorvel Corporation | 4.3 bn | 36.2 | 30.6% | 12.0% | +7.0% | +17% / +23% |
| WDHWaterdrop Inc. | 3.6 bn | 50.0 | 11.6% | 14.2% | +49.8% | −44% / −17% |
| ARXAccelerant Holdings | 3.3 bn | — | -241.6% | -112.1% | +51.5% | +36% / unavailable |
| NPNeptune Insurance Holdings Inc. | 2.7 bn | 89.6 | — | 22.7% | +33.7% | +20% / unavailable |
| GSHDGoosehead Insurance, Inc. | 1.2 bn | 34.1 | — | 8.8% | +16.2% | −21% / −22% |
| HUIZHuize Holding Limited | 1.1 bn | — | 1.0% | 0.3% | +32.2% | −33% / −49% |
| BWINThe Baldwin Insurance Group, Inc. | 1.1 bn | — | -10.7% | -4.7% | +8.3% | +12% / +83% |
| RDZNRoadzen Inc. | 94.5 m | — | — | -46.9% | +24.2% | −36% / −77% |
| SLQTSelectQuote, Inc. | 70.0 m | 5.8 | 23.4% | 4.6% | +6.0% | −73% / −69% |
| EHTHEhealth, Inc. | 16.8 m | — | 4.6% | 4.9% | +4.1% | −87% / −93% |
| EZRAReliance Global Group, Inc. | 2.1 m | — | -123.4% | -54.3% | −11.6% | −92% / −100% |
| CCGCheche Group Inc. | — | — | -5.0% | -0.6% | −13.3% | +804% / +12% |
| YBYuanbao Inc. | — | — | 152.7% | 29.9% | +33.1% | −47% / unavailable |
| ZBAOZhibao Technology Inc. | — | — | -141.3% | -22.4% | +53.0% | −100% / unavailable |
1- and 3-year price returns: for TWFG from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Scenarios are not available. input data missing
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 06 Aug 2026; since then the company filed 10-Q (05 Nov 2026), 8-K (04 Nov 2026 · results).
In brief
TWFG is an independent distribution platform for personal and commercial insurance in the United States, linking independent agents with more than 300 insurance carriers. Revenue grew strongly in fiscal 2025 and in the second quarter of 2026, driven by network expansion and MGA programs, which makes the company relevant for investors and market observers. 123
SWOT
Strengths
Weaknesses
- Reliance on a small number of insurance carriers for a large part of premium 1.
- Strong geographic concentration in a few states, increasing exposure to local events.
- Commission revenue depends on premiums the company does not control.
Opportunities
- Expansion of the MGA division and specialty programs with higher commissions.
- Acquisitions of agencies and branches in states where the company is already present or entering new ones.
- Continued market shift toward independent agencies, supported by new partners among direct carriers.
Threats
- Declines in auto insurance pricing could reduce commission revenue.
- Catastrophic events such as hurricanes or wildfires can affect carrier and agent results.
- Changes in trade or regulatory policy may alter costs and demand.
Risks
- Dependence on a few carriershigh
A significant portion of premium comes from a small number of insurance carriers. If one of them changes or ends its relationship, the company could be forced to move business on less favorable terms.
- Cyclicality of insurance pricinghigh
Premiums and commissions are influenced by market cycles and carrier decisions. A prolonged period of lower prices could reduce revenue.
- Commission chargebacksmedium
Carriers may seek repayment of commissions if policies lapse, are cancelled or are not renewed, which could create expenses in later periods.
- Contingent commission volatilitymedium
Contingent commissions are hard to predict and depend on carriers' underwriting results. A decline in these could affect results.
- Risks from international operationslow
Employees and vendors outside the U.S. may expose the company to political instability, currency swings and regulatory pressure on offshore work.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- Organic revenue growth and rising written premium, combined with expanding margins, show that the distribution model can generate growing profit. If MGA programs keep expanding, margins could remain high.
- The raised 2026 guidance suggests core performance has exceeded earlier expectations. If acquisitions integrate well, growth could continue.
- The balance sheet, with liquidity and undrawn credit capacity, provides flexibility for acquisitions and share repurchases.
What would break the thesis
- A large part of revenue depends on a few carriers and on commissions that could fall if prices decline. If this trend intensifies, growth could slow.
- Part of the recent growth comes from acquisitions and from policy transitions with temporary effects, which could make it hard to sustain the pace in coming quarters.
- Geographic exposure and natural-event risks could generate unexpected losses for carriers and, indirectly, for the distributor.
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 06 Aug 2026; since then the company filed 10-Q (05 Nov 2026), 8-K (04 Nov 2026 · results).
The business
TWFG earns most of its revenue from commissions (about 89% of revenue in 2025 1), paid by insurance carriers for policies placed through its agencies. The company operates a model in which partner agencies (Agency-in-a-Box) and wholly owned branches receive technology, training and carrier access, while the operating costs of independent agencies largely stay with them. Total revenue was 248.5 million USD in fiscal 2025 1. 1
Besides its agency network, TWFG has a managing general agency division (TWFG MGA) that provides access to admitted and E&S markets, where small agencies struggle to gain access. The MGA division represented about 20% of 2025 revenue 1, and its share rose considerably in the second quarter of 2026 as MGA programs expanded. 23
Market context
Competitive position
TWFG competes with captive agencies, small independent agencies and other distribution platforms and managing general agents. The company says it differentiates through access to more than 300 carriers, proprietary technology and its revenue-sharing model 1. Competition rests on reputation, client service and product range 1.
In distribution, TWFG is compared with large brokers and agency groups operating nationally. Competition for productive agents and branch acquisitions could raise acquisition costs and influence long-term margins. 1
- Captive agencies of large insurance companies
Compete through carriers' own sales channels that sell the products of a single company only.
- Small independent agencies and brokers
Compete for the same local clients but have more limited access to carriers and specialty markets.
- Other distributors and managing general agents (MGAs)
Offer access to E&S markets and specialty programs, making them direct competitors of the MGA division.
- Nationally present distribution platforms
Compete for productive agents and acquisitions with larger financing and negotiating resources.
Links, dependencies and risks
Who the company is tied to, from its own SEC filings (customers, suppliers, production, partners, competitors, countries, regulation), from the 5 %+ holders' statements (13D/13G) and from what other companies say about it. Click a node for its evidence; on a listed company the graph moves to it.
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News & filings
In the press
No news in our archive over the last 180 days.
SEC filings
- Quarterly report05 Nov 2026
- Current report04 Nov 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report13 Aug 2026Material agreement · Creation of a direct financial obligation · Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
- Quarterly report06 Aug 2026
- Current report05 Aug 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report24 Jul 2026Departure or appointment of officers
- Current report28 May 2026Shareholder vote · Financial statements and exhibits
- Quarterly report08 May 2026
- Current report07 May 2026Results of operations
- Proxy statement10 Apr 2026
Sources
- [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · SEC / TWFG, Inc. · 10 Mar 2026
- [2] Form 10-Q, quarter ended 2026-06-30 · SEC / TWFG, Inc. · 06 Aug 2026
- [3] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / TWFG, Inc. · 05 Aug 2026
Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.