olivLaw · US equity research
Bloomin' Brands, Inc. BLMN
Retail-Eating Places · SIC 5812 · Vertical: Retail-Eating Places (SIC 5812)
Bloomin' Brands runs full-service restaurants, led by Outback Steakhouse, and is executing a turnaround focused on that brand. It operated 967 restaurants and franchised 493 at the end of fiscal 2025, and in the second quarter of 2026 it raised its full-year profit outlook.
At the close of 04 Nov 2026, Bloomin' Brands, Inc. (BLMN) stock was 10.97 USD (+7.23% on the day), with market capitalisation 939.3 m USD, P/E 35.1 on diluted EPS of 0.31 USD over the last 12 months, dividend yield 4.10%, beta 1.42, 52-week range 5.26–11.85 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q2 2026): revenue of 1.0 bn USD (+1.3% YoY), net income of 31.3 m USD (+23.3% YoY), diluted EPS 0.36 USD.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
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Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 63.0
- strong (55–70)
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 8.31 – 11.26
- in the upper half of the band · %B 0.90 · band width 30.2%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 9.23 / 7.92
- uptrend (price > SMA50 > SMA200)
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- 0.45 / 0.33
- MACD above signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | S&P 500 | vs S&P 500 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | +32.5% | −1.1% | +33.6 pp | — |
| 3 months | −7.4% | −0.5% | −7.0 pp | — |
| 6 months | +35.1% | +4.4% | +30.7 pp | — |
| Year to date | +77.8% | +12.3% | +65.5 pp | — |
| 1 year | +59.2% | +13.5% | +45.7 pp | +6.6% |
| 3 years | −53.6% | +76.4% | −130.0 pp | −0.6% |
| 5 years | −50.2% | +63.7% | −113.9 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
Latest quarter: Q2 2026 · 28 Jun 2026
Quarterly margins
Quarterly statements · USD
| Fiscal year | Q3 '24 | Q4 '24 | Q1 '25 | Q2 '25 | Q3 '25 | Q4 '25 | Q1 '26 | Q2 '26 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 910.0 m | 972.0 m | 1.0 bn | 1.0 bn | 928.8 m | 975.2 m | 1.1 bn | 1.0 bn |
| Cost of revenue | 261.3 m | 276.2 m | 313.3 m | 298.3 m | 275.1 m | 290.6 m | 317.4 m | 306.4 m |
| Operating income | 8.6 m | 16.2 m | 57.2 m | 29.7 m | -36.4 m | -13.3 m | 59.1 m | 38.3 m |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 44.3 m | 45.1 m | 43.9 m | 44.6 m | 44.9 m | 44.2 m | 46.3 m | 46.0 m |
| Pre-tax income | 1.0 m | -18.8 m | 46.0 m | 19.0 m | -47.5 m | -25.7 m | 46.7 m | 27.1 m |
| Income tax | -8.0 m | -13.5 m | 903.0 k | -8.7 m | -2.4 m | -16.5 m | -10.3 m | -6.7 m |
| Net income | 6.9 m | -79.5 m | 42.2 m | 25.4 m | -45.9 m | -13.5 m | 55.7 m | 31.3 m |
| Diluted EPS | 0.08 | -0.94 ≈ | 0.50 | 0.30 | -0.54 | -0.16 ≈ | 0.65 | 0.36 |
| Operating cash flow | -7.8 m ≈ | 119.8 m | 73.5 m | 49.7 m ≈ | 34.4 m ≈ | 119.1 m | 75.3 m | 90.9 m ≈ |
| Capex | 59.5 m ≈ | 53.0 m | 45.8 m | 38.5 m ≈ | 40.2 m ≈ | 55.5 m | 25.2 m | 44.0 m ≈ |
| Dividends paid | 20.4 m ≈ | 20.4 m | 12.7 m | 12.8 m ≈ | 12.8 m ≈ | 0 | 0 | 0 ≈ |
| Share repurchases | 18.2 m ≈ | 0 | 0 | 0 ≈ | 0 ≈ | 0 | — | — |
≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Today's P/E sits at the 86 percentile of its own 22-quarter history (min 9.0, median 20.2, max 68.8; quarters with earnings only).
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 4.1 bn | 4.1 bn | 3.2 bn | 4.1 bn | 4.0 bn | 4.2 bn | 4.0 bn | 4.0 bn |
| Revenue YoY | −2.1% | +0.3% | −23.4% | +30.0% | −2.7% | +4.0% | −5.2% | +0.1% |
| Net income | 107.1 m | 130.6 m | -158.7 m | 215.6 m | 101.9 m | 247.4 m | -128.0 m | 8.2 m |
| Net income YoY | +5.7% | +21.9% | −221.6% | unavailable | −52.7% | +142.8% | −151.7% | unavailable |
| Diluted EPS | 1.14 | 1.45 | -1.85 | 2.00 | 1.03 | 2.56 | -1.49 | 0.10 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | unavailable | +27.2% | −227.6% | unavailable | −48.5% | +148.5% | −158.2% | unavailable |
| net % | 2.6% | 3.2% | -5.0% | 5.2% | 2.5% | 5.9% | -3.2% | 0.2% |
| Free cash flow | 79.9 m | 155.7 m | 51.0 m | 279.6 m | 198.1 m | 250.2 m | 7.4 m | 96.8 m |
Reported results vs expectations
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Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2025 · 28 Dec 2025
- Cash
- 59.5 m USD
- Financial debt
- 787.4 m USD
- Net debt
- 728.0 m USD
- Equity
- 337.2 m USD
- Total assets
- 3.2 bn USD
- Debt / equity
- 2.34x
- Current ratio
- 0.31x
- ROE
- 3.5%
- ROA
- 0.3%
- FCF margin
- 2.4%
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (USD)
Margins
Income statement · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 3.2 bn | 4.1 bn | 4.0 bn | 4.2 bn | 4.0 bn | 4.0 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Cost of revenue | 982.7 m | 1.2 bn | 1.2 bn | 1.2 bn | 1.1 bn | 1.2 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Gross profit | 2.2 bn ≈ | 2.9 bn ≈ | 2.8 bn ≈ | 2.9 bn ≈ | 2.8 bn ≈ | 2.8 bn ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026derived |
| Operating income | -175.0 m | 309.0 m | 306.1 m | 282.8 m | 139.8 m | 37.2 m | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 180.3 m | 163.4 m | 149.9 m | 169.3 m | 175.6 m | 177.7 m | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| EBITDA | 5.3 m ≈ | 472.3 m ≈ | 456.0 m ≈ | 452.0 m ≈ | 315.4 m ≈ | 214.8 m ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026derived |
| Pre-tax income | -239.5 m | 249.3 m | 127.4 m | 231.2 m | -58.8 m | -8.2 m | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Income tax | -80.7 m | 26.4 m | 34.3 m | 18.4 m | -12.1 m | -26.7 m | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Net income | -158.7 m | 215.6 m | 101.9 m | 247.4 m | -128.0 m | 8.2 m | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | -1.85 | 2.00 | 1.03 | 2.56 | -1.49 | 0.10 | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Weighted average diluted shares | 87.5 m | 107.8 m | 98.5 m | 96.5 m | 85.9 m | 85.3 m | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Dividend per share | 0.20 | 0.00 | 0.56 | 0.96 | 0.96 | 0.45 | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Revenue − Cost of revenue; Operating income + Depreciation & amortisation.
Balance sheet · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 110.0 m | 87.6 m | 84.7 m | 111.5 m | 70.1 m | 59.5 m | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Inventories | 61.9 m | 79.1 m | 78.1 m | 62.9 m | 68.7 m | 61.5 m | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Current assets | 323.9 m | 352.8 m | 346.6 m | 343.3 m | 320.5 m | 269.6 m | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | 887.7 m | 842.0 m | 914.1 m | 928.2 m | 948.5 m | 912.6 m | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Goodwill | 271.2 m | 268.4 m | 273.0 m | 213.3 m | 213.3 m | 185.1 m | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Intangibles (excl. goodwill) | 460.0 m | 453.4 m | 448.3 m | 432.9 m | 429.1 m | 425.3 m | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Total assets | 3.4 bn | 3.3 bn | 3.3 bn | 3.4 bn | 3.4 bn | 3.2 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Accounts payable | 141.5 m | 168.0 m | 183.7 m | 155.9 m | 153.2 m | 138.2 m | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Short-term debt | 38.7 m | 11.0 m | 1.6 m | — | — | — | SEC (XBRL)· 22 Feb 2023verified |
| Long-term debt | 997.8 m | 782.1 m | 828.5 m | 780.7 m | 1.0 bn | 787.4 m | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Current liabilities | 950.1 m | 984.6 m | 978.9 m | 1.0 bn | 952.3 m | 878.6 m | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Total liabilities | 3.4 bn | 3.1 bn | 3.0 bn | 3.0 bn | 3.2 bn | 2.8 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Equity | 11.0 m | 222.9 m | 273.9 m | 412.0 m | 139.4 m | 337.2 m | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
Cash flow · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | 138.8 m | 402.5 m | 390.9 m | 532.4 m | 228.1 m | 276.7 m | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Capex | 87.8 m | 122.8 m | 192.8 m | 282.2 m | 220.7 m | 179.9 m | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Free cash flow | 51.0 m ≈ | 279.6 m ≈ | 198.1 m ≈ | 250.2 m ≈ | 7.4 m ≈ | 96.8 m ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026derived |
| Investing cash flow | -76.6 m | -104.7 m | -201.1 m | -317.1 m | -239.0 m | 2.1 m | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Financing cash flow | -16.8 m | -317.4 m | -195.5 m | -187.1 m | -23.5 m | -289.1 m | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Dividends paid | 17.5 m | 0 | 49.7 m | 83.7 m | 82.6 m | 38.3 m | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Share repurchases | 0 | 0 | 109.2 m | 70.8 m | 265.7 m | 0 | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating cash flow − Capex.
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
Score: 44 / 100
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
(margin_of_safety <= -0.25 & agreement in ['high', 'medium'])
Closing price
04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 939.3 m USD
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
- Balance sheet29
- Valuation69
- Quality49
- Growth0
- Returns52
Estimated value range
The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 5.67 – 36.02 USD.
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Method ranges (USD per share)
— — Mid · ▏ Price
Valuation methods
- DCF (discounted cash flow)unavailable · input data missing
- Peers: EV/EBITDA12.35 – 36.02 (Mid 19.57)24 companies used · median multiple 10.1x · quartiles 7.4x – 16.2xARCO, ARMK, BDL, BJRI, CAKE, CBRL, DRI, FWRG, GTIM, LOCO, MCD, NATH, NDLS, PLAY, PTLO, PZZA, QSR, RICK, RRGB, STKS, TXRH, WING, YUM, YUMC
- Peers: P/E5.67 – 10.15 (Mid 6.82)22 companies used · median multiple 21.8x · quartiles 18.1x – 32.5xARCO, ARMK, BDL, BJRI, CAKE, CBRL, CMG, DRI, EAT, FWRG, GTIM, JACK, LOCO, MCD, NATH, PTLO, PZZA, QSR, TXRH, WING, YUM, YUMC
- Dividend discount (DDM)5.91 – 7.95 (Mid 6.78)
Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 4.3%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 9.3%
- Terminal growth
- 2.5%
Factor scorecard
Unattractive profile · Score 44/100
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | 3.4% | 25 (vs peers) | 11% |
| Net margin · Quality | 0.7% | 38 (vs peers) | 7% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | 560.2% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 7% |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | -0.4% | 0 (on a fixed band) | 9% |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | -54.0% | 0 (on a fixed band) | 9% |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | 2.8x | 40 (vs peers) | 11% |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 0.3x | 0 (on a fixed band) | 4% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | 35.1x | 28 (vs peers) | 11% |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | 6.9x | 84 (vs peers) | 11% |
| FCF yield · Valuation | 16.5% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 9% |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | 1.4% | 19 (on a fixed band) | 7% |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | 8.2% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 4% |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet29/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
- Growth0/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
- Quality49/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
- Returns52/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
- Valuation69/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
Memo
BLOOMIN’ BRANDS, INC. (BLMN). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2026-06-28.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 4.0 bn USD in 2025; YoY growth 0.1%; net margin 0.7%; ROE 6.7%; net debt/EBITDA 2.8x.
The estimated value range is 5.91–10.15 USD per share (median of 3 methods, agreement: medium); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 6.82 USD, the price of 10.97 USD leaves a potential of -37.8% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of -60.8% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
olivLaw score 44/100, methodological classification: unattractive profile (score, margin of safety and method agreement together; not a judgement of the right price). Not investment advice.
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- FCF conversion: 560.2%
- EV/EBITDA: 6.9x
- FCF yield: 16.5%
- Payout ratio (FCF): 8.2%
What contradicts it
- ROIC: 3.4%
- Revenue CAGR 3Y: -0.4%
- EPS CAGR 3Y: -54.0%
- Current ratio: 0.3x
- P/E (TTM): 35.1x
- Shareholder yield (distributions): 1.4%
- The price is above the estimated value range
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): Interest coverage.
Versus the vertical median
Retail-Eating Places (SIC 5812) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 39 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MCDMcDONALD’S CORPORATION | 198.3 bn | 0.0 | — | 31.7% | +3.7% | −10% / −1% |
| YUMYum! Brands, Inc. | 45.4 bn | 20.9 | — | 25.4% | +8.8% | +9% / +32% |
| CMGChipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. | 44.5 bn | 32.9 | 48.5% | 10.8% | +5.4% | +2% / −20% |
| DRIDarden Restaurants, Inc. | 26.1 bn | 22.5 | 55.1% | 8.8% | +9.4% | +28% / +47% |
| QSRRestaurant Brands International Inc. | 24.8 bn | 18.2 | 53.8% | 20.1% | +12.2% | +8% / +10% |
| YUMCYum China Holdings, Inc. | 17.0 bn | 18.3 | 17.5% | 7.8% | +4.4% | +3% / +15% |
| ARMKAramark | 13.8 bn | 36.7 | 11.8% | 1.9% | +6.4% | +41% / +87% |
| TXRHTexas Roadhouse, Inc. | 12.9 bn | 31.3 | 28.1% | 6.8% | +9.4% | +12% / +75% |
| EATBrinker International, Inc. | 9.2 bn | 19.4 | 134.7% | 8.4% | +7.9% | +43% / +512% |
| CAVACAVA Group, Inc. | 7.2 bn | 109.3 | 8.3% | 4.8% | +22.4% | +27% / +82% |
| CAKEThe Cheesecake Factory Incorporated | 5.8 bn | 27.4 | 41.6% | 5.2% | +4.7% | +142% / +268% |
| WINGWingstop Inc. | 4.5 bn | 39.3 | — | 16.0% | +11.4% | −37% / −30% |
| CBRLCracker Barrel Old Country Store, Inc. | 1.6 bn | 50.2 | 6.7% | 1.0% | −4.7% | +143% / +5% |
| ARCOArcos Dorados Holdings Inc. | 1.5 bn | 7.0 | 33.2% | 4.5% | +4.7% | −7% / −39% |
| BJRIBj’s Restaurants, Inc. | 1.3 bn | 33.0 | 10.4% | 2.9% | +3.1% | +61% / +106% |
| SGSweetgreen, Inc. | 1.1 bn | 117.9 | 3.1% | 2.0% | +0.4% | +82% / +25% |
| BLMNBloomin’ Brands, Inc. | 939.3 m | 35.1 | 6.7% | 0.7% | +0.1% | +59% / −54% |
| FWRGFirst Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. | 833.3 m | 42.1 | 3.1% | 1.5% | +20.3% | −27% / −25% |
| PZZAPapa John’s International, Inc. | 658.1 m | 25.1 | — | 1.4% | −0.3% | −52% / −69% |
| LOCOEl Pollo Loco Holdings, Inc. | 501.2 m | 14.1 | 11.8% | 7.0% | +3.6% | +51% / +98% |
| DINDine Brands Global, Inc. | 448.6 m | 106.7 | — | 0.4% | +8.2% | +17% / −16% |
| NATHNathan's Famous, Inc. | 418.2 m | 21.1 | — | 11.8% | +9.4% | −4% / +56% |
| PTLOPortillo's Inc. | 336.8 m | 29.8 | 3.0% | 1.9% | +3.0% | +4% / −65% |
| PLAYDave & Buster’s Entertainment, Inc. | 305.8 m | — | -69.7% | -4.3% | −1.4% | −50% / −79% |
| JACKJack In The Box Inc. | 275.6 m | 8.2 | — | 2.4% | −6.7% | −27% / −80% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for BLMN from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (USD)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | 6.37 Total return -40% · Per year -40% | 11.29 Total return 6% · Per year 6% | 17.05 Total return 59% · Per year 59% |
| 3 years | 5.58 Total return -43% · Per year -17% | 11.19 Total return 11% · Per year 3% | 18.63 Total return 81% · Per year 22% |
| 5 years | 4.89 Total return -46% · Per year -11% | 11.09 Total return 16% · Per year 3% | 20.37 Total return 105% · Per year 15% |
- Exit P/E± 2.80
- Net margin± 1.96
- Annual revenue growth± 1.69
- Annual dilution± 0.16
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
In brief
Bloomin' Brands runs full-service restaurants, led by Outback Steakhouse, and is executing a turnaround focused on that brand. It operated 967 restaurants and franchised 493 at the end of fiscal 2025, and in the second quarter of 2026 it raised its full-year profit outlook.
SWOT
Strengths
Weaknesses
Opportunities
Risks
- Food safetyhigh
A food-borne illness case, even at another operator, could reduce traffic and harm brand reputation 1.
- Supplier concentrationhigh
A small number of beef suppliers could lead to supply interruptions and higher costs 1.
- Labor costsmedium
Higher minimum wages and employment regulation could raise operating costs 1.
- Out West franchise agreementmedium
The agreement with a large western U.S. franchisee ends in late 2026, and continued royalty payments are not assured 1.
- Leverage and covenantsmedium
Debt and restrictive covenants could limit investment and the ability to react to economic change 2.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
What would break the thesis
What to watch
- U.S. comparable sales against the raised 1.0% to 2.0% guidanceQ3 2026
- Restaurant-level margin and beef cost trendsQ3 2026
- Renewal of the Out West agreement and royalty payments2026
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
The business
OSI Restaurant Partners, LLC is the primary operating entity 1. Restaurant sales in fiscal 2025 were 3,884.2 million USD 1, while total revenues in the second quarter of 2026 were 1,015.8 million USD 3.
In November 2025 the company announced a turnaround plan focused on Outback Steakhouse, built on the dine-in experience, brand relevance, culture and restaurant investment, supported by non-guest-facing savings and debt reduction 1. The dividend was suspended in October 2025 1.
Segments
U.S. segment
The U.S. segment includes all restaurants in the United States, including franchised ones, and combines Outback Steakhouse, Carrabba's Italian Grill, Bonefish Grill and Fleming's Prime Steakhouse & Wine Bar 1. Combined U.S. comparable restaurant sales were 0.2% in fiscal 2025 1 and 2.3% in Q2 2026 3.
Market context
Casual dining is highly competitive, with price, service, location and food quality as the main battlegrounds 1. The company notes that supermarkets, fast-casual chains and home delivery have expanded prepared-meal options 1.
Cost pressure in recent years has come mainly from labor and commodity inflation, and economic conditions could weaken consumer spending, affecting traffic and average check 1. The second quarter of 2026 nonetheless showed higher average check per person 3.
Trends
- Outback turnaround plantailwind
The November 2025 strategy centres on the in-restaurant experience, brand relevance and reinvestment, and Q2 2026 results allowed the company to raise its profit outlook 3. If execution stays consistent, the plan could support a recovery in traffic.
- Core cost pressureheadwind
Commodity and labor inflation raised costs in fiscal 2025, particularly for beef, where the company depends on a small number of suppliers 1. If these pressures persist, margins could stay under strain.
- Debt reduction and slower developmentmixed
The company has slowed new unit development to focus on refreshing restaurants and paying down debt with free cash flow 1. This may limit near-term growth but could strengthen the balance sheet.
- Changing consumer habits and deliveryheadwind
Consumer tastes, delivery services and prepared-food alternatives are reshaping dining patterns 1. The effect depends on how well the company adapts to these shifts.
Competitive position
Competition includes virtually all casual dining restaurants in the company's markets, plus fast-casual chains, supermarkets and delivery services 1. Larger competitors have substantial financial and marketing resources 1.
The company notes that rivals may implement menu and technology initiatives, such as remote ordering and mobile platforms, more effectively, which could erode its share 1.
- Fast-casual restaurants
Described in the filing as a growing pressure on casual dining, with better offers and convenience 1.
- Supermarkets with prepared meals
Cited as a growing competitor with expanded ready-to-eat selections 1.
- Home delivery services
The filing says they widen meal alternatives and shape customer habits 1.
- Other casual dining operators
The company says many operators compete directly with its concepts on price, service and food quality 1.
Links, dependencies and risks
Who the company is tied to, from its own SEC filings (customers, suppliers, production, partners, competitors, countries, regulation), from the 5 %+ holders' statements (13D/13G) and from what other companies say about it. Click a node for its evidence; on a listed company the graph moves to it.
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News & filings
In the press
No news in our archive over the last 180 days.
SEC filings
- Current report02 Nov 2026Material agreement · Termination of a material agreement · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report29 Sept 2026Material agreement · Creation of a direct financial obligation · Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
- Quarterly report06 Aug 2026
- Current report05 Aug 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report01 Jul 2026Departure or appointment of officers · Financial statements and exhibits
- Quarterly report07 May 2026
- Current report06 May 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report24 Apr 2026Shareholder vote · Financial statements and exhibits
- Proxy statement03 Mar 2026
- Annual report25 Feb 2026
Sources
- [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2025-12-28 · SEC / Bloomin' Brands, Inc. · 25 Feb 2026
- [2] Form 10-Q, quarter ended 2026-06-28 · SEC / Bloomin' Brands, Inc. · 06 Aug 2026
- [3] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / Bloomin' Brands, Inc. · 05 Aug 2026
Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.