olivLaw · US equity research
Restaurant Brands International Inc. QSR
Retail-Eating Places · SIC 5812 · Vertical: Retail-Eating Places (SIC 5812)
Restaurant Brands International Inc. (QSR) is one of the world's largest quick service restaurant companies, with nearly $47 billion in fiscal 2025 system-wide sales and over 33,000 restaurants in more than 120 countries and territories. Over 95% of its restaurants are franchised. Second quarter 2026 results showed system-wide sales growth of 6.4% and comparable sales of 3.8%.
The AI analysis may be outdated: new filings came after its sources (see the «AI analysis» section).
At the close of 04 Nov 2026, Restaurant Brands International Inc. (QSR) stock was 78.38 USD (+5.48% on the day), with market capitalisation 24.8 bn USD, P/E 18.2 on diluted EPS of 4.30 USD over the last 12 months, dividend yield 3.28%, beta 0.31, 52-week range 66.14–81.67 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q3 2026): revenue of 2.5 bn USD (+3.1% YoY), net income of 704.0 m USD (+61.5% YoY), diluted EPS 1.54 USD.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
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Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 65.0
- strong (55–70)
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 70.04 – 77.60
- above the upper band · %B 1.10 · band width 10.2%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 74.27 / 74.13
- uptrend (price > SMA50 > SMA200)
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- 0.59 / 0.25
- MACD above signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | S&P 500 | vs S&P 500 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | +12.2% | −1.1% | +13.3 pp | — |
| 3 months | +5.2% | −0.5% | +5.7 pp | — |
| 6 months | +1.5% | +4.4% | −2.9 pp | — |
| Year to date | +14.9% | +12.3% | +2.6 pp | — |
| 1 year | +18.3% | +13.5% | +4.8 pp | +6.6% |
| 3 years | +15.6% | +76.4% | −60.8 pp | −20.1% |
| 5 years | +31.9% | +63.7% | −31.8 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
Latest quarter: Q3 2026 · 30 Sept 2026
Quarterly margins
Quarterly statements · USD
| Fiscal year | Q4 '24 | Q1 '25 | Q2 '25 | Q3 '25 | Q4 '25 | Q1 '26 | Q2 '26 | Q3 '26 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 2.3 bn | 2.1 bn | 2.4 bn | 2.4 bn | 2.5 bn | 2.3 bn | 2.5 bn | 2.5 bn |
| Operating income | 635.0 m | 435.0 m | 483.0 m | 663.0 m | 621.0 m | 606.0 m | 716.0 m | 696.0 m |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 77.0 m | 71.0 m | 77.0 m | 76.0 m | 76.0 m | 78.0 m | 77.0 m | 74.0 m |
| Pre-tax income | 500.0 m | 305.0 m | 351.0 m | 534.0 m | 494.0 m | 483.0 m | 592.0 m | 571.0 m |
| Income tax | 139.0 m | 82.0 m | 87.0 m | 94.0 m | 220.0 m | 38.0 m | -73.0 m | -133.0 m |
| Net income | 361.0 m | 221.0 m | 263.0 m | 436.0 m | 155.0 m | 445.0 m | 665.0 m | 704.0 m |
| Diluted EPS | 0.79 ≈ | 0.49 | 0.57 | 0.96 | 0.34 ≈ | 0.97 | 1.45 | 1.54 |
| Operating cash flow | 481.0 m | 118.0 m | 449.0 m ≈ | 592.0 m ≈ | 555.0 m | 227.0 m | 530.0 m ≈ | 551.0 m ≈ |
| Capex | 77.0 m | 64.0 m | 38.0 m ≈ | 61.0 m ≈ | 102.0 m | 58.0 m | 51.0 m ≈ | 72.0 m ≈ |
| Dividends paid | 262.0 m | 262.0 m | 282.0 m ≈ | 282.0 m ≈ | 282.0 m | 283.0 m | 296.0 m ≈ | 296.0 m ≈ |
| Share repurchases | 0 | 0 | 0 ≈ | — | — | 32.0 m | 138.0 m ≈ | — |
≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Today's P/E sits at the 14 percentile of its own 44-quarter history (min 16.5, median 23.9, max 74.7; quarters with earnings only).
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 5.4 bn | 5.6 bn | 5.0 bn | 5.7 bn | 6.5 bn | 7.0 bn | 8.4 bn | 9.4 bn |
| Revenue YoY | +17.1% | +4.6% | −11.3% | +15.5% | +13.3% | +7.9% | +19.7% | +12.2% |
| Net income | 1.1 bn | 1.1 bn | 750.0 m | 1.3 bn | 1.5 bn | 1.7 bn | 1.4 bn | 1.1 bn |
| Net income YoY | −7.4% | −2.9% | −32.5% | +67.1% | +18.3% | +15.9% | −15.9% | −25.6% |
| Diluted EPS | 2.42 | 2.37 | 1.60 | 2.69 | 3.25 | 3.76 | 3.18 | 2.35 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | −4.7% | −2.1% | −32.5% | +68.1% | +20.8% | +15.7% | −15.4% | −26.1% |
| net % | 21.4% | 19.8% | 15.1% | 21.8% | 22.8% | 24.5% | 17.2% | 11.4% |
| Free cash flow | 1.1 bn | 1.4 bn | 804.0 m | 1.6 bn | 1.4 bn | 1.2 bn | 1.3 bn | 1.4 bn |
Reported results vs expectations
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Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025
- Cash
- 1.2 bn USD
- Financial debt
- 13.3 bn USD
- Net debt
- 12.1 bn USD
- Equity
- 5.2 bn USD
- Total assets
- 25.6 bn USD
- Debt / equity
- 2.57x
- Current ratio
- 0.98x
- ROE
- 21.5%
- ROA
- 4.3%
- FCF margin
- 15.4%
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (USD)
Margins
Income statement · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 5.0 bn | 5.7 bn | 6.5 bn | 7.0 bn | 8.4 bn | 9.4 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 20 Feb 2026verified |
| Cost of revenue | 1.6 bn | 1.9 bn | 2.3 bn | 2.4 bn | — | — | SEC (XBRL)· 22 Feb 2024verified |
| Gross profit | 3.4 bn ≈ | 3.8 bn ≈ | 4.2 bn ≈ | 4.6 bn ≈ | — | — | SEC (XBRL)· 22 Feb 2024derived |
| SG&A | 1.3 bn | — | — | — | — | — | SEC (XBRL)· 23 Feb 2021verified |
| Operating income | 1.4 bn | 1.9 bn | 1.9 bn | 2.1 bn | 2.4 bn | 2.2 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 20 Feb 2026verified |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 189.0 m | 201.0 m | 190.0 m | 191.0 m | 264.0 m | 301.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 20 Feb 2026verified |
| EBITDA | 1.6 bn ≈ | 2.1 bn ≈ | 2.1 bn ≈ | 2.2 bn ≈ | 2.7 bn ≈ | 2.5 bn ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 20 Feb 2026derived |
| Pre-tax income | 816.0 m | 1.4 bn | 1.4 bn | 1.5 bn | 1.8 bn | 1.7 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 20 Feb 2026verified |
| Income tax | 66.0 m | 110.0 m | -117.0 m | -265.0 m | 364.0 m | 483.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 20 Feb 2026verified |
| Net income | 750.0 m | 1.3 bn | 1.5 bn | 1.7 bn | 1.4 bn | 1.1 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 20 Feb 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | 1.60 | 2.69 | 3.25 | 3.76 | 3.18 | 2.35 | SEC (XBRL)· 20 Feb 2026verified |
| Weighted average diluted shares | 468.0 m | 464.0 m | 455.0 m | 456.0 m | 454.0 m | 457.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 20 Feb 2026verified |
| Dividend per share | 2.08 | 2.12 | 2.16 | 2.20 | 2.32 | 2.48 | SEC (XBRL)· 20 Feb 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Revenue − Cost of revenue; Operating income + Depreciation & amortisation.
Balance sheet · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 1.6 bn | 1.1 bn | 1.2 bn | 1.1 bn | 1.3 bn | 1.2 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 20 Feb 2026verified |
| Inventories | 96.0 m | 96.0 m | 133.0 m | 166.0 m | 142.0 m | 205.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 20 Feb 2026verified |
| Current assets | 2.3 bn | 1.8 bn | 2.0 bn | 2.2 bn | 2.3 bn | 2.8 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 20 Feb 2026verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | 1.5 bn | 1.5 bn | 1.4 bn | 1.3 bn | 1.2 bn | 2.3 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 06 May 2026verified |
| Goodwill | 5.7 bn | 6.0 bn | 5.7 bn | 5.8 bn | 6.0 bn | 6.3 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 20 Feb 2026verified |
| Intangibles (excl. goodwill) | 10.7 bn | 11.4 bn | 11.0 bn | 11.1 bn | 10.9 bn | 11.2 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 20 Feb 2026verified |
| Total assets | 22.8 bn | 23.2 bn | 22.7 bn | 23.4 bn | 24.6 bn | 25.6 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 20 Feb 2026verified |
| Accounts payable | 464.0 m | 614.0 m | 758.0 m | 790.0 m | 765.0 m | 866.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 20 Feb 2026verified |
| Short-term debt | 79.0 m | 62.0 m | 95.0 m | 67.0 m | 187.0 m | 32.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 20 Feb 2026verified |
| Long-term debt | 12.4 bn | 12.9 bn | 12.8 bn | 12.9 bn | 13.5 bn | 13.3 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 20 Feb 2026verified |
| Current liabilities | 1.6 bn | 1.9 bn | 2.1 bn | 2.1 bn | 2.4 bn | 2.9 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 20 Feb 2026verified |
| Total liabilities | 19.1 bn | 19.4 bn | 18.5 bn | 18.7 bn | 19.8 bn | 20.5 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 20 Feb 2026verified |
| Equity | 3.7 bn | 3.9 bn | 4.3 bn | 4.7 bn | 4.8 bn | 5.2 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 20 Feb 2026verified |
Cash flow · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | 921.0 m | 1.7 bn | 1.5 bn | 1.3 bn | 1.5 bn | 1.7 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 20 Feb 2026verified |
| Capex | 117.0 m | 106.0 m | 100.0 m | 120.0 m | 201.0 m | 265.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 20 Feb 2026verified |
| Free cash flow | 804.0 m ≈ | 1.6 bn ≈ | 1.4 bn ≈ | 1.2 bn ≈ | 1.3 bn ≈ | 1.4 bn ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 20 Feb 2026derived |
| Investing cash flow | -79.0 m | -1.1 bn | -64.0 m | 11.0 m | -660.0 m | -318.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 20 Feb 2026verified |
| Financing cash flow | -821.0 m | -1.1 bn | -1.3 bn | -1.4 bn | -625.0 m | -1.4 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 20 Feb 2026verified |
| Dividends paid | 959.0 m | 974.0 m | 971.0 m | 990.0 m | 1.0 bn | 1.1 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 20 Feb 2026verified |
| Share repurchases | 0 | 551.0 m | 326.0 m | 500.0 m | 0 | 0 | SEC (XBRL)· 20 Feb 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating cash flow − Capex.
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
Score: 59 / 100
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 24.8 bn USD
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
- Valuation66
- Returns73
- Quality74
- Balance sheet23
- Growth50
Estimated value range
The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 27.79 – 144.07 USD.
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Method ranges (USD per share)
— — Mid · ▏ Price
Valuation methods
- DCF (discounted cash flow)unavailable · input data missing
- Peers: EV/EBITDA27.79 – 114.48 (Mid 53.73)21 companies used · median multiple 9.9x · quartiles 7.2x – 16.5xARCO, ARMK, BJRI, BLMN, CAKE, CBRL, DRI, FWRG, LOCO, MCD, NDLS, PLAY, PTLO, PZZA, RICK, RRGB, STKS, TXRH, WING, YUM, YUMC
- Peers: P/E74.04 – 144.07 (Mid 112.83)20 companies used · median multiple 26.3x · quartiles 17.2x – 33.5xARCO, ARMK, BJRI, BLMN, CAKE, CBRL, CMG, DRI, EAT, FWRG, JACK, LOCO, MB, MCD, PTLO, PZZA, TXRH, WING, YUM, YUMC
- Dividend discount (DDM)32.59 – 43.83 (Mid 37.38)
Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 4.3%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 9.3%
- Terminal growth
- 2.5%
Factor scorecard
Neutral profile · Score 59/100
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | 14.6% | 63 (vs peers) | 11% |
| Net margin · Quality | 20.1% | 95 (vs peers) | 7% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | 80.2% | 72 (on a fixed band) | 7% |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | 13.2% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 9% |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | -10.2% | 0 (on a fixed band) | 9% |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | 4.2x | 27 (vs peers) | 11% |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 1.0x | 13 (on a fixed band) | 4% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | 18.2x | 79 (vs peers) | 11% |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | 12.6x | 41 (vs peers) | 11% |
| FCF yield · Valuation | 6.4% | 80 (on a fixed band) | 9% |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | 5.4% | 76 (on a fixed band) | 7% |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | 73.2% | 67 (on a fixed band) | 4% |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet23/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
- Growth50/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
- Quality74/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
- Returns73/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
- Valuation66/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
Memo
RESTAURANT BRANDS INTERNATIONAL INC. (QSR). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2026-09-30.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 9.4 bn USD in 2025; YoY growth 12.2%; net margin 20.1%; ROE 53.8%; net debt/EBITDA 4.2x.
The estimated value range is 32.59–114.48 USD per share (median of 3 methods, agreement: low); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 53.73 USD, the price of 78.38 USD leaves a potential of -31.4% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of -45.9% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
olivLaw score 59/100, methodological classification: neutral profile (score, margin of safety and method agreement together; not a judgement of the right price). Not investment advice.
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- Net margin: 20.1%
- FCF conversion: 80.2%
- Revenue CAGR 3Y: 13.2%
- P/E (TTM): 18.2x
- FCF yield: 6.4%
- Shareholder yield (distributions): 5.4%
What contradicts it
- EPS CAGR 3Y: -10.2%
- Net debt / EBITDA: 4.2x
- Current ratio: 1.0x
- The valuation methods diverge
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): Interest coverage.
Versus the vertical median
Retail-Eating Places (SIC 5812) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 39 companies
The size band was not applied: too few companies would have remained; the vertical includes much smaller or larger companies.
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MCDMcDONALD’S CORPORATION | 198.3 bn | 0.0 | — | 31.7% | +3.7% | −10% / −1% |
| YUMYum! Brands, Inc. | 45.4 bn | 20.9 | — | 25.4% | +8.8% | +9% / +32% |
| CMGChipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. | 44.5 bn | 32.9 | 48.5% | 10.8% | +5.4% | +2% / −20% |
| DRIDarden Restaurants, Inc. | 26.1 bn | 22.5 | 55.1% | 8.8% | +9.4% | +28% / +47% |
| QSRRestaurant Brands International Inc. | 24.8 bn | 18.2 | 53.8% | 20.1% | +12.2% | +18% / +16% |
| YUMCYum China Holdings, Inc. | 17.0 bn | 18.3 | 17.5% | 7.8% | +4.4% | +3% / +15% |
| ARMKAramark | 13.8 bn | 36.7 | 11.8% | 1.9% | +6.4% | +41% / +87% |
| TXRHTexas Roadhouse, Inc. | 12.9 bn | 31.3 | 28.1% | 6.8% | +9.4% | +12% / +75% |
| EATBrinker International, Inc. | 9.2 bn | 19.4 | 134.7% | 8.4% | +7.9% | +43% / +512% |
| CAVACAVA Group, Inc. | 7.2 bn | 109.3 | 8.3% | 4.8% | +22.4% | +27% / +82% |
| HDLSuper Hi International Holding Ltd. | 6.4 bn | 247.5 | 6.9% | 2.8% | +13.4% | −46% / unavailable |
| CAKEThe Cheesecake Factory Incorporated | 5.8 bn | 27.4 | 41.6% | 5.2% | +4.7% | +142% / +268% |
| WINGWingstop Inc. | 4.5 bn | 39.3 | — | 16.0% | +11.4% | −37% / −30% |
| CBRLCracker Barrel Old Country Store, Inc. | 1.6 bn | 50.2 | 6.7% | 1.0% | −4.7% | +143% / +5% |
| ARCOArcos Dorados Holdings Inc. | 1.5 bn | 7.0 | 33.2% | 4.5% | +4.7% | −7% / −39% |
| BJRIBj’s Restaurants, Inc. | 1.3 bn | 33.0 | 10.4% | 2.9% | +3.1% | +61% / +106% |
| SGSweetgreen, Inc. | 1.1 bn | 117.9 | 3.1% | 2.0% | +0.4% | +82% / +25% |
| BLMNBloomin’ Brands, Inc. | 939.3 m | 35.1 | 6.7% | 0.7% | +0.1% | +55% / −53% |
| FWRGFirst Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. | 833.3 m | 42.1 | 3.1% | 1.5% | +20.3% | −27% / −25% |
| PZZAPapa John’s International, Inc. | 658.1 m | 25.1 | — | 1.4% | −0.3% | −52% / −69% |
| LOCOEl Pollo Loco Holdings, Inc. | 501.2 m | 14.1 | 11.8% | 7.0% | +3.6% | +51% / +98% |
| DINDine Brands Global, Inc. | 448.6 m | 106.7 | — | 0.4% | +8.2% | +17% / −16% |
| PTLOPortillo's Inc. | 336.8 m | 29.8 | 3.0% | 1.9% | +3.0% | +4% / −65% |
| PLAYDave & Buster’s Entertainment, Inc. | 305.8 m | — | -69.7% | -4.3% | −1.4% | −50% / −79% |
| JACKJack In The Box Inc. | 275.6 m | 8.2 | — | 2.4% | −6.7% | −27% / −80% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for QSR from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (USD)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | 72.96 Total return -3% · Per year -3% | 128.50 Total return 69% · Per year 69% | 192.87 Total return 153% · Per year 153% |
| 3 years | 83.72 Total return 20% · Per year 6% | 164.64 Total return 128% · Per year 32% | 269.43 Total return 267% · Per year 54% |
| 5 years | 96.07 Total return 46% · Per year 8% | 210.94 Total return 204% · Per year 25% | 376.38 Total return 427% · Per year 39% |
- Exit P/E± 41.16
- Net margin± 28.81
- Annual revenue growth± 21.83
- Annual dilution± 2.42
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 06 Aug 2026; since then the company filed 10-Q (29 Oct 2026), 8-K (29 Oct 2026 · results).
In brief
Restaurant Brands International Inc. (QSR) is one of the world's largest quick service restaurant companies, with nearly $47 billion in fiscal 2025 system-wide sales and over 33,000 restaurants in more than 120 countries and territories 1. Over 95% of its restaurants are franchised 1. Second quarter 2026 results showed system-wide sales growth of 6.4% and comparable sales of 3.8% 23.
SWOT
Strengths
- A diversified portfolio of four strong brands with complementary dayparts and a global network that is almost entirely franchised.
- A franchise model that brings royalty and rental income, with lower direct exposure to restaurant operating costs.
- Steady comparable sales growth and operating income gains in the first half of 2026, with solid contributions from Burger King and international markets.
Weaknesses
- The Popeyes segment showed comparable sales declines in 2026, pointing to guest traffic challenges at that brand.
- Leverage remains elevated, and interest costs weigh on net profitability.
- The Tim Hortons segment had near-flat comparable sales in the first half of 2026, limiting revenue growth in its core market.
Opportunities
- Refranchising the Carrols Burger King restaurants and finding partners for Popeyes China could reduce debt and focus the company on franchising.
- If digital and loyalty programs keep their momentum, guest visit frequency and online order volume could rise.
- International expansion, particularly through master franchise partners, could bring growth without large direct investment.
Threats
- A decline in consumer discretionary spending could reduce restaurant traffic and franchisee sales.
- Volatile coffee and beef prices could squeeze supply chain margins and franchisee profitability.
- Changes in trade tariffs and currency swings could affect reported dollar results and imported costs.
Risks
- Discretionary spendinghigh
RBI restaurants are sensitive to consumer confidence and unemployment; a prolonged slowdown could reduce system-wide sales.
- Intense competitionhigh
Low barriers to entry and the greater resources of some rivals could pressure prices and margins, especially if competitors accelerate digital investment.
- Food safety and reputationmedium
A foodborne illness incident, even at a single franchisee, could affect brands globally and lead to temporary closures.
- Currency and international trademedium
Exposure to developing markets and currency fluctuations could affect reported revenues and results outside the U.S. and Canada.
- Supply costsmedium
A sharp rise in coffee, beef or energy prices could reduce profitability at the Tim Hortons segment and for franchisees.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- The Burger King U.S. rebound, with sharply higher comparable sales in 2026, suggests product investment and remodels can support longer-term growth 23.
- The predominantly franchised model and royalty streams can provide relatively stable revenue, and guidance points to organic AOI growth for 2026 13.
- International growth and debt reduction through refranchising and partnerships could strengthen the balance sheet over time 23.
What would break the thesis
- Comparable sales at Popeyes and Tim Hortons weakened in 2026, which could signal greater pressure on traffic at some brands 2.
- High leverage limits financial flexibility, and interest costs remain significant 23.
- If discretionary spending worsens or supply costs rise sharply, margins could be compressed, including for franchisees 1.
What to watch
- Comparable sales trajectory at Popeyes and Tim HortonsQ3 2026
- Delivery of the guided 8% organic AOI growth2026
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 06 Aug 2026; since then the company filed 10-Q (29 Oct 2026), 8-K (29 Oct 2026 · results).
The business
RBI owns and franchises four brands: Tim Hortons (6,232 restaurants globally in fiscal 2025), Burger King (19,900), Popeyes (5,413) and Firehouse Subs (1,496) 1. Total revenues were 9,434 mn USD in fiscal 2025, with income from operations of 2,202 mn USD 1. The company focuses on three pillars: quality food and experienced franchisees, service excellence, and convenience through drive-thru, delivery and digital channels 1.
The franchise model generates royalties, typically 3.0% to 6.0% of gross sales in the U.S. and Canada, and advertising fund contributions, typically 2.0% to 5.0% of gross sales 1. The company leases or subleases about 4,700 properties, mainly to Tim Hortons and Burger King franchisees 1.
Market context
The quick service sector is intensely competitive, with regional and national chains, independent operators, convenience stores and delivery services reaching customers, particularly in urban areas 1. System growth has been supported by international expansion, with INTL system-wide sales growing 10.7% in the second quarter of 2026 3.
Demand depends on consumer discretionary spending, shaped by inflation, unemployment and confidence; during slowdowns, customers shift toward lower-priced value menus 1. Commodity costs such as coffee and beef are volatile and can affect margins 1.
Trends
- Softer discretionary spendingheadwind
If consumer confidence weakens, restaurant visits could slow and guests could shift toward value menus, compressing margins 1.
- Recovery in U.S. comparable salestailwind
The Burger King U.S. rebound, with strong comparable sales growth in 2026, shows that product investment and remodels can support traffic 23.
- Commodity costsmixed
Coffee and beef prices have risen, and higher Tim Hortons supply chain costs reduced AOI in the second quarter of 2026 even as revenues grew 12.
- Digital ordering and deliverymixed
Mobile ordering, kiosks and loyalty programs can improve the guest experience, but reliance on delivery aggregators brings costs and regulatory scrutiny 1.
Competitive position
RBI competes on product choice, quality, affordability, service and location with well-capitalized regional and national chains, plus casual dining, convenience stores and new concepts 1. The company notes that some competitors have greater financial resources and economies of scale 1.
Competition for franchisees, sites and personnel is as intense as competition for guests, and new competitors can scale quickly given few barriers to entry 1.
- McDonald'sMCD
Global fast-food chain referenced as a major competitor of quick service brands in the analyzed sources.
- Yum! BrandsYUM
Restaurant group with its own brands competing with RBI in chicken and fast-food segments; cited among national and international competitors.
- Wendy'sWEN
Hamburger chain in the U.S. and Canada, a direct competitor of Burger King in quick service burgers.
- Dunkin' (held by Inspire Brands)
Coffee and baked goods brand competing with Tim Hortons; the owner is not listed on a U.S. exchange, so no ticker is given.
Links, dependencies and risks
Who the company is tied to, from its own SEC filings (customers, suppliers, production, partners, competitors, countries, regulation), from the 5 %+ holders' statements (13D/13G) and from what other companies say about it. Click a node for its evidence; on a listed company the graph moves to it.
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News & filings
In the press
No news in our archive over the last 180 days.
SEC filings
- Quarterly report29 Oct 2026
- Current report29 Oct 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report10 Aug 2026Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
- Quarterly report06 Aug 2026
- Current report06 Aug 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report03 Jun 2026Shareholder vote · Financial statements and exhibits
- Quarterly report06 May 2026
- Current report06 May 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Proxy statement23 Apr 2026
- Annual report20 Feb 2026
Sources
- [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · SEC / Restaurant Brands International Inc. · 20 Feb 2026
- [2] Form 10-Q, quarter ended 2026-06-30 · SEC / Restaurant Brands International Inc. · 06 Aug 2026
- [3] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / Restaurant Brands International Inc. · 06 Aug 2026
Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.