olivLaw · US equity research
Dine Brands Global, Inc. DIN
Retail-Eating Places · SIC 5812 · Vertical: Retail-Eating Places (SIC 5812)
Dine Brands Global owns and franchises the Applebee's, IHOP and Fuzzy's Taco Shop restaurant concepts, operating largely on a franchise model that earns royalties and advertising fees. With consumers increasingly price-focused, the company is expanding dual-branded restaurants and buying units from franchisees, which lifts company-restaurant revenue but pressures margins and leaves it with significant debt, total revenues of 879.3 mn USD in fiscal 2025.
The AI analysis may be outdated: new filings came after its sources (see the «AI analysis» section).
At the close of 04 Nov 2026, Dine Brands Global, Inc. (DIN) stock was 36.49 USD (+3.34% on the day), with market capitalisation 448.6 m USD, P/E 106.7 on diluted EPS of 0.34 USD over the last 12 months, dividend yield 2.08%, beta 0.96, 52-week range 24.38–38.81 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q3 2026): revenue of 248.9 m USD (+15.1% YoY), net income of 4.6 m USD (−37.2% YoY), diluted EPS 0.37 USD.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
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Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 68.6
- strong (55–70)
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 28.20 – 36.99
- in the upper half of the band · %B 0.94 · band width 26.9%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 30.93 / 31.63
- mixed trend
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- 1.48 / 0.99
- MACD above signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | S&P 500 | vs S&P 500 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | +22.2% | −1.1% | +23.3 pp | — |
| 3 months | +2.1% | −0.5% | +2.5 pp | — |
| 6 months | +34.4% | +4.4% | +30.0 pp | — |
| Year to date | +13.5% | +12.3% | +1.2 pp | — |
| 1 year | +48.3% | +13.5% | +34.8 pp | +3.2% |
| 3 years | −19.8% | +76.4% | −96.2 pp | −0.6% |
| 5 years | −60.9% | +63.7% | −124.6 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
Latest quarter: Q3 2026 · 27 Sept 2026
Quarterly margins
Quarterly statements · USD
| Fiscal year | Q4 '24 | Q1 '25 | Q2 '25 | Q3 '25 | Q4 '25 | Q1 '26 | Q2 '26 | Q3 '26 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 204.8 m | 214.8 m | 230.8 m | 216.2 m | 217.6 m | 225.2 m | 240.9 m | 248.9 m |
| Cost of revenue | 119.5 m | 124.5 m | 138.6 m | 131.6 m | 125.4 m | 137.8 m | 149.7 m | 164.2 m |
| Gross profit | 85.3 m | 90.3 m | 92.2 m | 84.6 m | 92.2 m | 87.3 m | 91.2 m | 84.7 m |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 10.1 m | 10.4 m | 10.5 m ≈ | 10.6 m ≈ | 11.5 m | 11.9 m | 11.9 m ≈ | 12.8 m ≈ |
| Pre-tax income | 7.8 m | 12.8 m | 18.9 m | 10.1 m | -16.6 m | 10.1 m | 6.0 m | 6.7 m |
| Income tax | 2.6 m | 4.6 m | 5.1 m | 2.7 m | -4.4 m | 2.8 m | 1.7 m | 2.1 m |
| Net income | 5.2 m | 8.2 m | 13.8 m | 7.3 m | -12.2 m | 7.4 m | 4.3 m | 4.6 m |
| Diluted EPS | 0.35 ≈ | 0.53 | 0.89 | 0.48 | -0.95 ≈ | 0.57 | 0.35 | 0.37 |
| Operating cash flow | 30.5 m | 16.1 m | 37.0 m ≈ | 30.2 m ≈ | 5.7 m | 7.5 m | 12.4 m ≈ | 17.9 m ≈ |
| Capex | 3.8 m | 3.3 m | 5.9 m ≈ | 12.1 m ≈ | 14.3 m | 12.1 m | 11.1 m ≈ | 7.8 m ≈ |
| Dividends paid | 7.8 m | 7.8 m | 8.0 m | 7.8 m | 7.4 m | 2.5 m | 2.3 m ≈ | 2.4 m ≈ |
| Share repurchases | 66.0 k | 1.6 m | 6.0 m ≈ | 22.5 m ≈ | 30.6 m | 22.0 m | 7.3 m ≈ | 6.6 m ≈ |
≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Today's P/E sits at the 100 percentile of its own 32-quarter history (min 5.1, median 12.5, max 82.4; quarters with earnings only).
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 780.9 m | 910.2 m | 689.3 m | 896.2 m | 909.4 m | 831.1 m | 812.3 m | 879.3 m |
| Revenue YoY | +6.7% | +16.6% | −24.3% | +30.0% | +1.5% | −8.6% | −2.3% | +8.2% |
| Net income | 80.4 m | 104.3 m | -104.0 m | 97.9 m | 81.1 m | 97.2 m | 64.9 m | 17.1 m |
| Net income YoY | unavailable | +29.9% | −199.7% | unavailable | −17.1% | +19.8% | −33.2% | −73.6% |
| Diluted EPS | 4.37 | 5.85 | -6.43 | 5.66 | 4.96 | 6.22 | 4.22 | 1.11 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | unavailable | +33.9% | −209.9% | unavailable | −12.4% | +25.4% | −32.2% | −73.7% |
| net % | 10.3% | 11.5% | -15.1% | 10.9% | 8.9% | 11.7% | 8.0% | 1.9% |
| Free cash flow | 126.1 m | 135.8 m | 85.6 m | 179.0 m | 54.0 m | 94.0 m | 94.1 m | 53.4 m |
Reported results vs expectations
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Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2025 · 28 Dec 2025
- Cash
- 128.2 m USD
- Financial debt
- 1.2 bn USD
- Net debt
- 1.1 bn USD
- Equity
- -273.9 m USD
- Total assets
- 1.7 bn USD
- Debt / equity
- unavailable
- Current ratio
- 0.96x
- ROE
- unavailable
- ROA
- 1.0%
- FCF margin
- 6.1%
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (USD)
Margins
Income statement · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 689.3 m | 896.2 m | 909.4 m | 831.1 m | 812.3 m | 879.3 m | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Cost of revenue | 440.6 m | 520.9 m | 532.0 m | 434.4 m | 437.0 m | 520.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Gross profit | 248.7 m | 375.2 m | 377.4 m | 396.7 m | 375.3 m | 359.3 m | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 42.8 m | 39.9 m | 38.0 m | 35.6 m | 39.2 m | 42.9 m | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Interest expense | 75.9 m | 71.5 m | 67.6 m | 74.0 m | — | — | SEC (XBRL)· 28 Feb 2024verified |
| Pre-tax income | -108.6 m | 121.9 m | 114.8 m | 111.7 m | 89.5 m | 25.2 m | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Income tax | -4.6 m | 24.1 m | 33.7 m | 14.5 m | 24.7 m | 8.1 m | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Net income | -104.0 m | 97.9 m | 81.1 m | 97.2 m | 64.9 m | 17.1 m | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | -6.43 | 5.66 | 4.96 | 6.22 | 4.22 | 1.11 | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Weighted average diluted shares | 16.2 m | 16.9 m | 15.9 m | 15.2 m | 14.9 m | 14.3 m | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Dividend per share | 0.76 | 0.40 | 1.99 | 2.04 | 2.04 | 1.72 | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
Balance sheet · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 383.4 m | 361.4 m | 269.7 m | 146.0 m | 186.7 m | 128.2 m | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Current assets | 586.5 m | 574.4 m | 479.8 m | 357.8 m | 386.0 m | 351.8 m | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | 188.0 m | — | — | — | — | — | SEC (XBRL)· 05 May 2021verified |
| Goodwill | 251.6 m | 251.6 m | 254.0 m | 254.1 m | 248.6 m | 249.6 m | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Intangibles (excl. goodwill) | 549.7 m | 539.4 m | 597.0 m | 586.0 m | 575.7 m | 534.1 m | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Total assets | 2.1 bn | 2.0 bn | 1.9 bn | 1.7 bn | 1.8 bn | 1.7 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Accounts payable | 37.4 m | 56.0 m | 52.1 m | 36.2 m | 37.7 m | — | SEC (XBRL)· 05 Mar 2025verified |
| Short-term debt | 13.0 m | 0 | 100.0 m | 100.0 m | 100.0 m | 0 | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Long-term debt | 1.5 bn | 1.3 bn | 1.2 bn | 1.1 bn | 1.1 bn | 1.2 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Current liabilities | 348.6 m | 410.7 m | 470.7 m | 460.5 m | 445.3 m | 365.6 m | SEC (XBRL)· 05 Aug 2026verified |
| Total liabilities | 2.4 bn | 2.2 bn | 2.2 bn | 2.0 bn | 2.0 bn | 2.0 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 05 Aug 2026verified |
| Equity | -354.7 m † | -242.8 m † | -301.1 m † | -251.0 m † | -216.0 m † | -273.9 m † | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
† equity attributable to the parent's shareholders: in these years the issuer no longer reports the total including non-controlling interests.
Cash flow · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | 96.5 m | 195.8 m | 89.3 m | 131.2 m | 108.2 m | 89.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Capex | 10.9 m | 16.8 m | 35.3 m | 37.2 m | 14.1 m | 35.6 m | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Free cash flow | 85.6 m ≈ | 179.0 m ≈ | 54.0 m ≈ | 94.0 m ≈ | 94.1 m ≈ | 53.4 m ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026derived |
| Investing cash flow | 18.7 m | 3.9 m | -80.9 m | -30.1 m | -8.5 m | -31.6 m | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Financing cash flow | 168.4 m | -230.4 m | -108.8 m | -225.4 m | -51.7 m | -104.3 m | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Dividends paid | 24.4 m | 0 | 31.0 m | 31.7 m | 31.3 m | 31.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Share repurchases | 29.9 m | 4.2 m | 120.5 m | 26.1 m | 12.1 m | 60.7 m | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating cash flow − Capex.
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
- score weight coverage: 58.3% of at least 60%
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 448.6 m USD
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
58% · Insufficient data
Estimated value range
The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 5.50 – 30.40 USD.
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Method ranges (USD per share)
— — Mid · ▏ Price
Valuation methods
- DCF (discounted cash flow)unavailable · the reported interest expense is far older than the latest period (the filer changed its XBRL tag): a stale figure is not used
- Peers: EV/EBITDAunavailable · input data missing
- Peers: P/E5.50 – 10.97 (Mid 7.22)23 companies used · median multiple 21.1x · quartiles 16.1x – 32.1xARCO, BDL, BJRI, BLMN, CAKE, CBRL, CMG, DRI, EAT, FWRG, GTIM, JACK, LOCO, MB, MCD, NATH, PTLO, PZZA, QSR, TXRH, WING, YUM, YUMC
- Dividend discount (DDM)22.60 – 30.40 (Mid 25.93)
Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 4.3%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 9.3%
- Terminal growth
- 2.5%
Factor scorecard
Insufficient data
Minimum-evidence gate: score weight coverage: 58.3% of at least 60%
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net margin · Quality | 0.4% | 33 (vs peers) | 11% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | -43.2% | 0 (on a fixed band) | 11% |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | -1.1% | 0 (on a fixed band) | 14% |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | -39.3% | 0 (on a fixed band) | 14% |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 0.9x | 6 (on a fixed band) | 7% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | 106.7x | 12 (vs peers) | 18% |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| FCF yield · Valuation | -0.4% | 0 (on a fixed band) | 14% |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | 18.1% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 11% |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet· partial6/100 · 1/3 factors with a value
- Growth0/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
- Quality17/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
- Returns· partial100/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
- Valuation6/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
Dine Brands Global, Inc. (DIN). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2026-09-27.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 879.3 m USD in 2025; YoY growth 8.2%; net margin 0.4%.
The estimated value range is 14.05–20.68 USD per share (median of 2 methods, agreement: low); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 16.57 USD, the price of 36.49 USD leaves a potential of -54.6% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of -120.2% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
Insufficient data for a verdict (score weight coverage: 58.3% of at least 60%).
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- Shareholder yield (distributions): 18.1%
What contradicts it
- FCF conversion: -43.2%
- Revenue CAGR 3Y: -1.1%
- EPS CAGR 3Y: -39.3%
- Current ratio: 0.9x
- P/E (TTM): 106.7x
- FCF yield: -0.4%
- The price is above the estimated value range
- The valuation methods diverge
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): ROIC, Net debt / EBITDA, Interest coverage, EV/EBITDA, Payout ratio (FCF).
Versus the vertical median
Retail-Eating Places (SIC 5812) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 39 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MCDMcDONALD’S CORPORATION | 198.3 bn | 0.0 | — | 31.7% | +3.7% | −10% / −1% |
| YUMYum! Brands, Inc. | 45.4 bn | 20.9 | — | 25.4% | +8.8% | +9% / +32% |
| CMGChipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. | 44.5 bn | 32.9 | 48.5% | 10.8% | +5.4% | +2% / −20% |
| DRIDarden Restaurants, Inc. | 26.1 bn | 22.5 | 55.1% | 8.8% | +9.4% | +28% / +47% |
| QSRRestaurant Brands International Inc. | 24.8 bn | 18.2 | 53.8% | 20.1% | +12.2% | +8% / +10% |
| YUMCYum China Holdings, Inc. | 17.0 bn | 18.3 | 17.5% | 7.8% | +4.4% | +3% / +15% |
| TXRHTexas Roadhouse, Inc. | 12.9 bn | 31.3 | 28.1% | 6.8% | +9.4% | +12% / +75% |
| EATBrinker International, Inc. | 9.2 bn | 19.4 | 134.7% | 8.4% | +7.9% | +43% / +512% |
| CAVACAVA Group, Inc. | 7.2 bn | 109.3 | 8.3% | 4.8% | +22.4% | +27% / +82% |
| HDLSuper Hi International Holding Ltd. | 6.4 bn | 247.5 | 6.9% | 2.8% | +13.4% | −46% / unavailable |
| CAKEThe Cheesecake Factory Incorporated | 5.8 bn | 27.4 | 41.6% | 5.2% | +4.7% | +142% / +268% |
| WINGWingstop Inc. | 4.5 bn | 39.3 | — | 16.0% | +11.4% | −37% / −30% |
| CBRLCracker Barrel Old Country Store, Inc. | 1.6 bn | 50.2 | 6.7% | 1.0% | −4.7% | +143% / +5% |
| ARCOArcos Dorados Holdings Inc. | 1.5 bn | 7.0 | 33.2% | 4.5% | +4.7% | −7% / −39% |
| BJRIBj’s Restaurants, Inc. | 1.3 bn | 33.0 | 10.4% | 2.9% | +3.1% | +61% / +106% |
| SGSweetgreen, Inc. | 1.1 bn | 117.9 | 3.1% | 2.0% | +0.4% | +82% / +25% |
| BLMNBloomin’ Brands, Inc. | 939.3 m | 35.1 | 6.7% | 0.7% | +0.1% | +55% / −53% |
| FWRGFirst Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. | 833.3 m | 42.1 | 3.1% | 1.5% | +20.3% | −27% / −25% |
| PZZAPapa John’s International, Inc. | 658.1 m | 25.1 | — | 1.4% | −0.3% | −52% / −69% |
| LOCOEl Pollo Loco Holdings, Inc. | 501.2 m | 14.1 | 11.8% | 7.0% | +3.6% | +51% / +98% |
| DINDine Brands Global, Inc. | 448.6 m | 106.7 | — | 0.4% | +8.2% | +48% / −20% |
| NATHNathan's Famous, Inc. | 418.2 m | 21.1 | — | 11.8% | +9.4% | −4% / +56% |
| PTLOPortillo's Inc. | 336.8 m | 29.8 | 3.0% | 1.9% | +3.0% | +4% / −65% |
| PLAYDave & Buster’s Entertainment, Inc. | 305.8 m | — | -69.7% | -4.3% | −1.4% | −50% / −79% |
| JACKJack In The Box Inc. | 275.6 m | 8.2 | — | 2.4% | −6.7% | −27% / −80% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for DIN from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (USD)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | 19.67 Total return -45% · Per year -45% | 34.88 Total return -4% · Per year -4% | 52.67 Total return 45% · Per year 45% |
| 3 years | 17.00 Total return -52% · Per year -21% | 34.10 Total return -4% · Per year -1% | 56.84 Total return 59% · Per year 17% |
| 5 years | 14.69 Total return -57% · Per year -15% | 33.35 Total return -4% · Per year -1% | 61.35 Total return 74% · Per year 12% |
- Exit P/E± 8.53
- Net margin± 5.97
- Annual revenue growth± 5.18
- Annual dilution± 0.50
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 05 Aug 2026; since then the company filed 8-K (04 Nov 2026 · results), 10-Q (04 Nov 2026).
In brief
Dine Brands Global owns and franchises the Applebee's, IHOP and Fuzzy's Taco Shop restaurant concepts, operating largely on a franchise model that earns royalties and advertising fees. With consumers increasingly price-focused, the company is expanding dual-branded restaurants and buying units from franchisees, which lifts company-restaurant revenue but pressures margins and leaves it with significant debt, total revenues of 879.3 mn USD in fiscal 2025 1.
SWOT
Strengths
- The asset-lite model, in which most restaurants are run by franchisees, produces recurring royalty and advertising revenue with limited direct operating costs 13.
- The portfolio holds three distinct, recognised brands, and IHOP reported in the second quarter of 2026 comparable sales growth that outpaced its category 3.
- The company has adequate liquidity, with unrestricted cash and available borrowing capacity that let it fund dividends and share repurchases 3.
Weaknesses
- Securitized debt at subsidiary level is large and carries restrictive covenants; failing to meet them could trigger rapid amortisation or an event of default 1.
- Pre-tax income declined in the first half of 2026, with general and administrative and interest costs rising faster than revenue 2.
- Reliance on a small number of large franchisees, who operate a major share of Applebee's restaurants, means the financial health of those partners matters greatly to the company 1.
Opportunities
- Expanding the dual-branded IHOP and Applebee's programme in the United States and abroad could add units and franchise revenue 13.
- Growing off-premise channels such as delivery and online ordering could support sales when guests dine out less often 13.
- Selectively buying franchised restaurants and returning them to the system could improve returns if units are brought up to company standards 1.
Threats
- Consumers cutting discretionary spending may choose cheaper restaurants or quick-service options, which could reduce traffic across all three brands 1.
- Rising labour, food and utility costs could weaken franchisee finances and their capacity to pay royalties 1.
- Regulatory changes on wages and working conditions could raise operating costs in the states where the company and its franchisees operate 1.
Risks
- High indebtedness and restrictive covenantshigh
Securitized debt at subsidiary level restricts their activity, and failing financial tests could lead to rapid amortisation, default or creditors taking control of securitized assets 1.
- Pressure on operating costshigh
Higher wages, health care, food and energy costs can compress franchisee margins, which could affect collection of royalties 1.
- Decline in same-restaurant salesmedium
Same-restaurant sales at Applebee's and Fuzzy's fell in some periods, and weaker traffic could pressure franchise and company-restaurant revenue 13.
- Dependence on franchiseesmedium
The company relies on the financial health of its franchisees, and insolvency of large partners could affect royalty payments and new unit development 13.
- Technology and cybersecuritylow
The company depends on information systems for point-of-sale, online ordering and payments, and a cyber incident could disrupt operations and affect securitized debt obligations 1.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- The asset-lite model and dual-branded expansion could support franchise revenue, and the value strategy may attract guests who remain budget-conscious 13.
- If IHOP sustains its comparable sales growth, the company could recover part of the 2025 pressure and support profitability 3.
- The share repurchase programme expanded in May 2026 signals management's confidence in cash generation and long-term shareholder value 3.
What would break the thesis
- Large securitized subsidiary debt and restrictive covenants could limit flexibility, especially if profit keeps declining 12.
- Falling comparable sales at Applebee's and cost pressure on franchisees could reduce royalties and advertising contributions 13.
- Buying company restaurants lifts revenue but also costs and investment; if these units do not become profitable quickly, the net margin effect could remain negative 12.
What to watch
- Trend in comparable sales at Applebee's and IHOPQ3 2026
- Level of securitized debt and compliance with the leverage thresholdnext 10-K
- Pace of dual-branded openings and franchisee restaurant acquisitions2027
- Evolution of general and administrative costs and pre-tax income in company-owned restaurantsQ1 2027
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 05 Aug 2026; since then the company filed 8-K (04 Nov 2026 · results), 10-Q (04 Nov 2026).
The business
Dine Brands owns and franchises the IHOP, Applebee's and Fuzzy's restaurant concepts, nearly all of which are operated by independent franchisees. At the end of fiscal 2025 the system counted 3,509 restaurants 1, and the company reports three segments: franchise, company-owned restaurants and rental 1. Its model is largely asset-lite, so revenue comes mainly from royalties and advertising fees rather than direct restaurant operations 3.
The franchise segment includes royalties, advertising fees and sales of proprietary products to franchisees, generating 665.5 mn USD of revenue in fiscal 2025 1. The company-owned segment grew sharply through the acquisition of units from franchisees, and the rental segment derives from leases or subleases of franchised restaurant properties 1. The company operated in 20 countries and two US territories, with international revenues below 2% of the total 1.
Strategy centres on innovation and evolution of existing brands, especially expansion of dual-branded IHOP and Applebee's restaurants, plus investment in marketing, online ordering, delivery and other digital channels 1. The company may also explore acquisitions of new concepts and deploys capital to dividends and share repurchases 13.
Segments
Franchise (IHOP, Applebee's, Fuzzy's)
The franchise segment, the largest contributor to segment profit, earns royalties, advertising fees and product sales to franchisees. Standard royalties are 4.5% of gross sales at IHOP, 4% at Applebee's and 5% at Fuzzy's 1. Lower franchise revenue in 2025 reflected smaller system sales and fewer franchised units 1.
Market context
The US restaurant industry is highly competitive and sensitive to economic conditions, prices and changing eating habits 1. The company notes that in 2025 traffic in the family dining category fell, while casual dining sales growth came mainly from higher average checks rather than more customers 1. Its second-quarter 2026 release says consumers remain focused on affordability and value 3.
Off-premise sales, including to-go, delivery and catering, have become an important channel for IHOP and Applebee's, where they account for over 20% of sales 13. How this channel and same-restaurant sales develop will show whether value and marketing strategies can offset cost pressure 3.
Trends
- Focus on value and affordabilitymixed
Consumers are increasingly price-sensitive, and the brands have launched everyday value menus and marketing aimed at both value and premium guests. If this strategy sustains traffic it could support comparable sales; otherwise average check pressure could persist 13.
- Expansion of dual-branded restaurantstailwind
IHOP and Applebee's units operating under one roof are growing in number and are treated by the company as a long-term growth driver. Expansion could add franchise revenue but requires investment and may slow independent openings 13.
- Pressure from labor, food and utility costsheadwind
Rising minimum wages, health care costs, egg prices and utilities weigh on franchisee margins and, in turn, their ability to pay royalties. If this pressure persists it could reduce profitability at franchised units 1.
- Acquisition of restaurants from franchiseesmixed
The company has bought several units from franchisees, raising company-owned revenue, but this reduces the number of royalty-paying restaurants and brings remodel and development costs. The net effect on profitability is therefore mixed 12.
Competitive position
In family dining, IHOP competes with chains such as Denny's, Cracker Barrel Old Country Store, Waffle House and Bob Evans Restaurants, as well as fast-casual and quick-service chains serving breakfast 1. Applebee's operates in casual dining against Buffalo Wild Wings, Olive Garden, Chili's Grill & Bar, Texas Roadhouse and Outback Steakhouse 1.
Fuzzy's competes in fast-casual with multi-state chains such as Velvet Taco, Torchy's Tacos and Rusty Taco, alongside many independent restaurants 1. Competition for quality sites and for new franchisees is also intense 1.
- Denny's
Family dining chain competing directly with IHOP for breakfast and family meal occasions 1.
- Cracker Barrel Old Country Store
Family dining chain competing with IHOP in the same full-service sit-down category 1.
- Olive Garden
Casual dining chain competing with Applebee's for the same sit-down restaurant guests 1.
- Torchy's Tacos
Multi-state fast-casual taco chain competing directly with Fuzzy's 1.
Links, dependencies and risks
Who the company is tied to, from its own SEC filings (customers, suppliers, production, partners, competitors, countries, regulation), from the 5 %+ holders' statements (13D/13G) and from what other companies say about it. Click a node for its evidence; on a listed company the graph moves to it.
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News & filings
In the press
No news in our archive over the last 180 days.
SEC filings
- Quarterly report04 Nov 2026
- Current report04 Nov 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report03 Nov 2026Other events
- Current report29 Oct 2026Material agreement · Item 3.03 · Amendments to articles or bylaws · Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report04 Sept 2026Other events · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report27 Aug 2026Departure or appointment of officers
- Quarterly report05 Aug 2026
- Current report05 Aug 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report02 Jun 2026Departure or appointment of officers · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report19 May 2026Shareholder vote
Sources
- [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2025-12-28 · SEC / Dine Brands Global, Inc. · 25 Feb 2026
- [2] Form 10-Q, quarter ended 2026-06-28 · SEC / Dine Brands Global, Inc. · 05 Aug 2026
- [3] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / Dine Brands Global, Inc. · 05 Aug 2026
Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.