olivLaw · US equity research
Cracker Barrel Old Country Store, Inc. CBRL
Retail-Eating Places · SIC 5812 · Vertical: Retail-Eating Places (SIC 5812)
Cracker Barrel Old Country Store operates country-style restaurants and gift shops, with 655 locations in 43 states. The company closed fiscal 2026 with revenue down 4.7%, and its fiscal 2027 outlook points to a moderate recovery if guest traffic improves.
At the close of 04 Nov 2026, Cracker Barrel Old Country Store, Inc. (CBRL) stock was 70.27 USD (+2.84% on the day), with market capitalisation 1.6 bn USD, P/E 50.2 on diluted EPS of 1.40 USD over the last 12 months, dividend yield 1.42%, beta 0.84, 52-week range 25.02–72.45 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q4 2026): revenue of 849.3 m USD (−2.2% YoY), net income of 12.2 m USD (+80.7% YoY), diluted EPS 0.54 USD.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
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Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 65.5
- strong (55–70)
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 57.11 – 75.60
- in the upper half of the band · %B 0.71 · band width 27.9%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 57.54 / 43.24
- uptrend (price > SMA50 > SMA200)
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- 3.83 / 4.01
- MACD below signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | S&P 500 | vs S&P 500 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | +24.8% | −1.1% | +25.9 pp | — |
| 3 months | +19.6% | −0.5% | +20.1 pp | — |
| 6 months | +128.7% | +4.4% | +124.4 pp | — |
| Year to date | +176.7% | +12.3% | +164.3 pp | — |
| 1 year | +116.7% | +13.5% | +103.2 pp | +3.2% |
| 3 years | +2.3% | +76.4% | −74.1 pp | −16.1% |
| 5 years | −51.9% | +63.7% | −115.5 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
Latest quarter: Q4 2026 · 31 Jul 2026
Quarterly margins
Quarterly statements · USD
| Fiscal year | Q1 '25 | Q2 '25 | Q3 '25 | Q4 '25 | Q1 '26 | Q2 '26 | Q3 '26 | Q4 '26 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 845.1 m | 949.4 m | 821.1 m | 868.0 m | 797.2 m | 874.8 m | 797.4 m | 849.3 m |
| Cost of revenue | 258.9 m | 309.8 m | 247.3 m | 265.0 m | 248.4 m | 292.7 m | 241.0 m | 244.2 m |
| Operating income | 7.1 m | 29.1 m | 14.9 m | 4.0 m | -32.8 m | 463.0 k | 6.7 m | 13.1 m |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 29.2 m | 30.2 m ≈ | 31.0 m ≈ | 31.9 m | 30.2 m | 30.5 m ≈ | 31.0 m ≈ | 31.3 m |
| Pre-tax income | 1.2 m | 24.1 m | 9.9 m | 2.5 m | -36.5 m | -3.6 m | 50.5 m | 10.2 m |
| Income tax | -3.6 m | 1.9 m | -2.7 m | -4.3 m | -11.9 m | -4.9 m | 7.7 m | -2.0 m |
| Net income | 4.8 m | 22.2 m | 12.6 m | 6.8 m | -24.6 m | 1.3 m | 42.8 m | 12.2 m |
| Diluted EPS | 0.22 | 0.99 | 0.56 | 0.30 ≈ | -1.10 | 0.06 | 1.90 | 0.54 ≈ |
| Operating cash flow | -4.4 m | 98.1 m ≈ | 23.0 m ≈ | 102.2 m | -53.4 m | 51.3 m ≈ | 94.7 m ≈ | 113.7 m |
| Capex | 39.0 m | 38.1 m ≈ | 36.6 m ≈ | 45.5 m | 35.5 m | 26.8 m ≈ | 27.8 m ≈ | 27.7 m |
| Dividends paid | 6.1 m | 5.8 m ≈ | 5.6 m ≈ | 5.6 m | 6.3 m | 5.7 m ≈ | 5.6 m ≈ | 5.6 m |
≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Today's P/E sits at the 95 percentile of its own 38-quarter history (min 12.7, median 19.4, max 407.5; quarters with earnings only).
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 3.1 bn | 2.5 bn | 2.8 bn | 3.3 bn | 3.4 bn | 3.5 bn | 3.5 bn | 3.3 bn |
| Revenue YoY | +1.4% | −17.9% | +11.8% | +15.8% | +5.4% | +0.8% | +0.4% | −4.7% |
| Net income | 223.4 m | -32.5 m | 254.5 m | 131.9 m | 99.1 m | 40.9 m | 46.4 m | 31.7 m |
| Net income YoY | −9.8% | −114.5% | unavailable | −48.2% | −24.9% | −58.7% | +13.3% | −31.7% |
| Diluted EPS | 9.27 | -1.36 | 10.71 | 5.67 | 4.45 | 1.83 | 2.06 | 1.40 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | −9.9% | −114.7% | unavailable | −47.1% | −21.5% | −58.9% | +12.6% | −32.0% |
| net % | 7.3% | -1.3% | 9.0% | 4.0% | 2.9% | 1.2% | 1.3% | 1.0% |
| Free cash flow | 224.5 m | -136.3 m | 230.5 m | 106.9 m | 123.5 m | 40.7 m | 59.8 m | 88.4 m |
Reported results vs expectations
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Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2026 · 31 Jul 2026
- Cash
- 36.5 m USD
- Financial debt
- 337.2 m USD
- Net debt
- 300.7 m USD
- Equity
- 478.2 m USD
- Total assets
- 2.0 bn USD
- Debt / equity
- 0.71x
- Current ratio
- 0.58x
- ROE
- 6.7%
- ROA
- 1.5%
- FCF margin
- 2.7%
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (USD)
Margins
Income statement · USD
| Line | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 2.8 bn | 3.3 bn | 3.4 bn | 3.5 bn | 3.5 bn | 3.3 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Sept 2026verified |
| Cost of revenue | 865.3 m | 1.0 bn | 1.1 bn | 1.1 bn | 1.1 bn | 1.0 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Sept 2026verified |
| Gross profit | 2.0 bn ≈ | 2.2 bn ≈ | 2.3 bn ≈ | 2.4 bn ≈ | 2.4 bn ≈ | 2.3 bn ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Sept 2026derived |
| Operating income | 366.7 m | 153.0 m | 120.6 m | 45.1 m | 55.0 m | -12.5 m | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Sept 2026verified |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 108.6 m | 103.6 m | 104.5 m | 111.7 m | 122.2 m | 123.1 m | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Sept 2026verified |
| EBITDA | 475.3 m ≈ | 256.6 m ≈ | 225.1 m ≈ | 156.9 m ≈ | 177.3 m ≈ | 110.6 m ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Sept 2026derived |
| Pre-tax income | — | — | 103.6 m | 24.2 m | 37.7 m | 20.6 m | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Sept 2026verified |
| Income tax | 56.0 m | 11.5 m | 4.6 m | -16.7 m | -8.7 m | -11.1 m | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Sept 2026verified |
| Net income | 254.5 m | 131.9 m | 99.1 m | 40.9 m | 46.4 m | 31.7 m | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Sept 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | 10.71 | 5.67 | 4.45 | 1.83 | 2.06 | 1.40 | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Sept 2026verified |
| Weighted average diluted shares | 23.8 m | 23.2 m | 22.3 m | 22.3 m | 22.5 m | 22.5 m | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Sept 2026verified |
| Dividend per share | 1.00 | 5.20 | 5.20 | 4.15 | 1.00 | 1.00 | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Sept 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Revenue − Cost of revenue; Operating income + Depreciation & amortisation.
Balance sheet · USD
| Line | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 144.6 m | 45.1 m | 25.1 m | 12.0 m | 39.6 m | 36.5 m | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Sept 2026verified |
| Receivables | 27.4 m | 32.2 m | 30.4 m | 39.2 m | 35.1 m | 36.9 m | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Sept 2026verified |
| Inventories | 138.3 m | 213.2 m | 189.4 m | 181.0 m | 180.6 m | 163.9 m | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Sept 2026verified |
| Current assets | 353.6 m | 317.3 m | 282.3 m | 278.2 m | 313.1 m | 275.9 m | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Sept 2026verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | 979.9 m | 969.6 m | 971.9 m | 959.8 m | 967.0 m | 885.8 m | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Sept 2026verified |
| Goodwill | 4.7 m | 4.7 m | 4.7 m | — | — | — | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Sept 2023verified |
| Intangibles (excl. goodwill) | 21.3 m | 21.2 m | 23.4 m | 24.4 m | 24.4 m | 3.4 m | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Sept 2026verified |
| Total assets | 2.4 bn | 2.3 bn | 2.2 bn | 2.2 bn | 2.2 bn | 2.0 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Sept 2026verified |
| Accounts payable | 135.2 m | 169.9 m | 165.5 m | 162.3 m | 169.8 m | 152.7 m | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Sept 2026verified |
| Short-term debt | 124.0 k | 124.0 k | 75.0 k | 75.0 k | 149.2 m | — | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Sept 2025verified |
| Long-term debt | 327.3 m | 423.2 m | 414.9 m | 476.6 m | 335.5 m | 337.2 m | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Sept 2026verified |
| Current liabilities | 465.3 m | 502.3 m | 489.0 m | 454.2 m | 625.6 m | 476.2 m | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Sept 2026verified |
| Equity | 663.6 m † | 511.5 m † | 483.8 m † | 440.1 m † | 461.7 m † | 478.2 m † | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Sept 2026verified |
† equity attributable to the parent's shareholders: in these years the issuer no longer reports the total including non-controlling interests.
Cash flow · USD
| Line | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | 301.9 m | 205.3 m | 250.5 m | 169.0 m | 218.9 m | 206.2 m | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Sept 2026verified |
| Capex | 71.4 m | 98.3 m | 127.0 m | 128.3 m | 159.1 m | 117.8 m | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Sept 2026verified |
| Free cash flow | 230.5 m ≈ | 106.9 m ≈ | 123.5 m ≈ | 40.7 m ≈ | 59.8 m ≈ | 88.4 m ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Sept 2026derived |
| Investing cash flow | 78.3 m | -98.5 m | -124.3 m | -124.3 m | -156.7 m | -34.2 m | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Sept 2026verified |
| Financing cash flow | -672.6 m | -206.2 m | -146.1 m | -57.8 m | -34.6 m | -175.1 m | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Sept 2026verified |
| Dividends paid | 31.7 m | 114.8 m | 116.1 m | 116.1 m | 23.1 m | 23.1 m | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Sept 2026verified |
| Share repurchases | 35.0 m | 131.5 m | 17.4 m | — | — | — | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Sept 2023verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating cash flow − Capex.
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
Score: 32 / 100
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
score < 40 · (margin_of_safety <= -0.25 & agreement in ['high', 'medium'])
Closing price
04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 1.6 bn USD
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
- Balance sheet31
- Growth0
- Quality45
- Returns53
- Valuation33
Estimated value range
The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 13.14 – 64.21 USD.
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Method ranges (USD per share)
— — Mid · ▏ Price
Valuation methods
- DCF (discounted cash flow)unavailable · the reported interest expense is far older than the latest period (the filer changed its XBRL tag): a stale figure is not used
- Peers: EV/EBITDA21.54 – 64.21 (Mid 33.37)22 companies used · median multiple 9.5x · quartiles 7.1x – 15.7xARCO, BDL, BJRI, BLMN, CAKE, DRI, FWRG, GTIM, LOCO, MCD, NATH, NDLS, PLAY, PTLO, PZZA, QSR, RRGB, STKS, TXRH, WING, YUM, YUMC
- Peers: P/E21.10 – 43.31 (Mid 29.44)22 companies used · median multiple 21.0x · quartiles 15.1x – 30.9xARCO, BDL, BJRI, BLMN, CAKE, CMG, DRI, EAT, FWRG, GTIM, JACK, LOCO, MB, MCD, NATH, PTLO, PZZA, QSR, TXRH, WING, YUM, YUMC
- Dividend discount (DDM)13.14 – 17.67 (Mid 15.07)
Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 4.3%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 9.3%
- Terminal growth
- 2.5%
Factor scorecard
Unattractive profile · Score 32/100
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | -1.2% | 17 (vs peers) | 11% |
| Net margin · Quality | 1.0% | 38 (vs peers) | 7% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | 279.2% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 7% |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | -1.2% | 0 (on a fixed band) | 9% |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | -32.0% | 0 (on a fixed band) | 9% |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | 2.7x | 43 (vs peers) | 11% |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 0.6x | 0 (on a fixed band) | 4% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | 50.2x | 15 (vs peers) | 11% |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | 16.9x | 22 (vs peers) | 11% |
| FCF yield · Valuation | 5.6% | 70 (on a fixed band) | 9% |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | 1.5% | 21 (on a fixed band) | 7% |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | 26.2% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 4% |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet31/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
- Growth0/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
- Quality45/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
- Returns53/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
- Valuation33/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
Memo
Cracker Barrel Old Country Store, Inc. (CBRL). Latest full fiscal year: 2026; data up to 2026-07-31.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 3.3 bn USD in 2026; YoY growth -4.7%; net margin 1.0%; ROE 6.7%; net debt/EBITDA 2.7x.
The estimated value range is 21.10–43.31 USD per share (median of 3 methods, agreement: medium); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 29.44 USD, the price of 70.27 USD leaves a potential of -58.1% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of -138.7% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
olivLaw score 32/100, methodological classification: unattractive profile (score, margin of safety and method agreement together; not a judgement of the right price). Not investment advice.
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- FCF conversion: 279.2%
- FCF yield: 5.6%
- Payout ratio (FCF): 26.2%
What contradicts it
- ROIC: -1.2%
- Revenue CAGR 3Y: -1.2%
- EPS CAGR 3Y: -32.0%
- Current ratio: 0.6x
- P/E (TTM): 50.2x
- EV/EBITDA: 16.9x
- Shareholder yield (distributions): 1.5%
- The price is above the estimated value range
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): Interest coverage.
Versus the vertical median
Retail-Eating Places (SIC 5812) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 39 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MCDMcDONALD’S CORPORATION | 198.3 bn | 0.0 | — | 31.7% | +3.7% | −10% / −1% |
| YUMYum! Brands, Inc. | 45.4 bn | 20.9 | — | 25.4% | +8.8% | +9% / +32% |
| CMGChipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. | 44.5 bn | 32.9 | 48.5% | 10.8% | +5.4% | +2% / −20% |
| DRIDarden Restaurants, Inc. | 26.1 bn | 22.5 | 55.1% | 8.8% | +9.4% | +28% / +47% |
| QSRRestaurant Brands International Inc. | 24.8 bn | 18.2 | 53.8% | 20.1% | +12.2% | +8% / +10% |
| YUMCYum China Holdings, Inc. | 17.0 bn | 18.3 | 17.5% | 7.8% | +4.4% | +3% / +15% |
| TXRHTexas Roadhouse, Inc. | 12.9 bn | 31.3 | 28.1% | 6.8% | +9.4% | +12% / +75% |
| EATBrinker International, Inc. | 9.2 bn | 19.4 | 134.7% | 8.4% | +7.9% | +43% / +512% |
| CAVACAVA Group, Inc. | 7.2 bn | 109.3 | 8.3% | 4.8% | +22.4% | +27% / +82% |
| HDLSuper Hi International Holding Ltd. | 6.4 bn | 247.5 | 6.9% | 2.8% | +13.4% | −46% / unavailable |
| CAKEThe Cheesecake Factory Incorporated | 5.8 bn | 27.4 | 41.6% | 5.2% | +4.7% | +142% / +268% |
| WINGWingstop Inc. | 4.5 bn | 39.3 | — | 16.0% | +11.4% | −37% / −30% |
| CBRLCracker Barrel Old Country Store, Inc. | 1.6 bn | 50.2 | 6.7% | 1.0% | −4.7% | +117% / +2% |
| ARCOArcos Dorados Holdings Inc. | 1.5 bn | 7.0 | 33.2% | 4.5% | +4.7% | −7% / −39% |
| BJRIBj’s Restaurants, Inc. | 1.3 bn | 33.0 | 10.4% | 2.9% | +3.1% | +61% / +106% |
| SGSweetgreen, Inc. | 1.1 bn | 117.9 | 3.1% | 2.0% | +0.4% | +82% / +25% |
| BLMNBloomin’ Brands, Inc. | 939.3 m | 35.1 | 6.7% | 0.7% | +0.1% | +55% / −53% |
| FWRGFirst Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. | 833.3 m | 42.1 | 3.1% | 1.5% | +20.3% | −27% / −25% |
| PZZAPapa John’s International, Inc. | 658.1 m | 25.1 | — | 1.4% | −0.3% | −52% / −69% |
| LOCOEl Pollo Loco Holdings, Inc. | 501.2 m | 14.1 | 11.8% | 7.0% | +3.6% | +51% / +98% |
| DINDine Brands Global, Inc. | 448.6 m | 106.7 | — | 0.4% | +8.2% | +17% / −16% |
| NATHNathan's Famous, Inc. | 418.2 m | 21.1 | — | 11.8% | +9.4% | −4% / +56% |
| PTLOPortillo's Inc. | 336.8 m | 29.8 | 3.0% | 1.9% | +3.0% | +4% / −65% |
| PLAYDave & Buster’s Entertainment, Inc. | 305.8 m | — | -69.7% | -4.3% | −1.4% | −50% / −79% |
| JACKJack In The Box Inc. | 275.6 m | 8.2 | — | 2.4% | −6.7% | −27% / −80% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for CBRL from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (USD)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | 39.63 Total return -43% · Per year -43% | 70.26 Total return 1% · Per year 1% | 106.11 Total return 53% · Per year 53% |
| 3 years | 34.17 Total return -48% · Per year -20% | 68.56 Total return 2% · Per year 1% | 114.30 Total return 68% · Per year 19% |
| 5 years | 29.46 Total return -53% · Per year -14% | 66.91 Total return 2% · Per year 0% | 123.11 Total return 84% · Per year 13% |
- Exit P/E± 17.14
- Net margin± 12.00
- Annual revenue growth± 10.42
- Annual dilution± 1.01
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
In brief
Cracker Barrel Old Country Store operates country-style restaurants and gift shops, with 655 locations in 43 states 1. The company closed fiscal 2026 with revenue down 4.7% 1, and its fiscal 2027 outlook points to a moderate recovery if guest traffic improves.
SWOT
Strengths
- The brand has strong recognition with a nostalgic concept and an extensive store network mainly along interstate highways 1.
- The company reduced debt and raised liquidity through property sale-leasebacks and note repayment 2.
- Gift shops generate high sales per square foot and benefit from restaurant guests 1.
Weaknesses
Opportunities
Risks
- Cost pressurehigh
Prices for commodities, transportation and labor could rise, and the company might not be able to pass the full increase on to customers 1.
- Declining traffichigh
Guests could reduce visits if prices are seen as too high or if alternatives become more attractive 1.
- Negative publicitymedium
Social media reactions and public criticism could quickly damage the brand image before the company can respond 1.
- Strategy executionmedium
Rolling out strategic initiatives across the store base could fail if guests or employees do not accept them 1.
- Supply chainmedium
The company relies on a single distribution facility and key vendors, including for foreign-sourced retail products, which could cause disruption 2.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- If the traffic trend keeps improving, the fiscal 2027 outlook could become easier to reach and results could support a sales recovery 2.
- Debt reduction and the sale-leaseback could provide financial flexibility for the period ahead 2.
- A strong brand and a highway store network could support loyal guests and retail sales 1.
What would break the thesis
What to watch
- Guest traffic trend and comparable store salesQ1 2027
- Delivery against fiscal 2027 revenue and adjusted EBITDA guidance2027
- Commodity costs and hourly wage inflation2027
- Debt levels and revolving credit facility usagenext 10-K
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
The business
The company runs the Cracker Barrel Old Country Store concept, founded in 1969 and headquartered in Lebanon, Tennessee 1. Restaurants generated about 81% of total revenue in 2026, and the rest came from gift shops selling decorative items, toys, apparel and food products 1. In fiscal 2026, comparable restaurant guest traffic fell 7.6%, while the average check per guest rose 3.7% 1.
Operations include 655 stores, none franchised, mostly located along interstate highways 1. The company sold 35 Maple Street Biscuit Company locations and closed the rest, reducing the total network from 725 to 655 units 1. In the fourth quarter of fiscal 2026, a sale-leaseback covered 26 locations, with net proceeds of about 77 million USD used to reduce debt 2.
Segments
Restaurants
Restaurants serve breakfast, lunch and dinner, with 29% of restaurant sales in breakfast, 40% in lunch and 31% in dinner 1. About 20% of restaurant sales come from off-premise channels such as to-go orders and delivery 1.
Gift shops
Retail sales represent 18.6% of revenue 1. Apparel and accessories account for the largest share at 32% of retail sales, followed by food at 19% and toys at 15% 1.
Maple Street Biscuit Company
The breakfast and lunch fast-casual concept was sold or closed in the fourth quarter of fiscal 2026, and no MSBC locations were operated as of July 31, 2026 1.
Market context
The US full-service restaurant market is intensely competitive, and Cracker Barrel operates mainly in this segment 1. Sales are sensitive to inflation, consumer discretionary income and interstate travel, since many guests are travelers 1.
Seasonality matters: tourist traffic and dining out peak in the summer, while retail sales are strongest in the second quarter, which includes the holiday season 1. Inflationary pressure on food, labor and utility costs remains a key factor for industry margins 1.
Trends
- Guest traffic recoverytailwind
The company reported improving traffic trends and key guest metrics in the fourth quarter of fiscal 2026 2. If these trends continue, the fiscal 2027 outlook could become more achievable 2.
- Price-sensitive consumersheadwind
Guests could reduce visits or switch to lower-priced competitors, especially given higher consumer debt and lower savings rates 1. This could weigh on restaurant traffic 1.
- Debt reduction and financial flexibilitymixed
The sale-leaseback and debt repayment reduced total debt from 484.6 million USD to 337.2 million USD 2. This could provide more flexibility, although revenue pressure could limit the benefit 2.
Competitive position
The company competes with national and regional restaurant and retail chains, as well as local restaurants, supermarkets and meal-replacement providers 1. Competition centers on quality, variety and perceived value of menu and retail items, as well as service efficiency and marketing effectiveness 1.
Pressure also comes from third-party delivery, meal kits and other off-premise offerings that could draw guests who would otherwise visit the store 1. Management noted that intense competition could continue across these factors 1.
- Full-service and family dining restaurants
Competitors offering sit-down meals that could attract the same travelers and local guests 1.
- Fast-casual and quick-service restaurants
Competitors offering lower prices and faster service, which could reduce guest traffic 1.
- Supermarket chains with deli and restaurant services
Competitors combining prepared food with retail sales, an area that overlaps with Cracker Barrel 1.
- Third-party delivery platforms and meal-kit services
Off-premise providers competing for guests who no longer dine in the restaurant 1.
Links, dependencies and risks
Who the company is tied to, from its own SEC filings (customers, suppliers, production, partners, competitors, countries, regulation), from the 5 %+ holders' statements (13D/13G) and from what other companies say about it. Click a node for its evidence; on a listed company the graph moves to it.
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News & filings
In the press
- Stocks making the biggest moves midday: McDonald's, Cracker Barrel, Alibaba, Worthington & moreCNBC — Top News · 23 Sept 2026 · EN
- Cracker Barrel sees traffic improvement as strategy is ‘on the right track’Yahoo Finance — News · 23 Sept 2026 · EN
- McDonald's Billion-Dollar Plan; Cracker Barrel Gains on Forecast | Stock MoversBloomberg Markets · 23 Sept 2026 · EN
- Cracker Barrel Q4 fiscal 2026 earnings beat Wall Street estimatesYahoo Finance — News · 23 Sept 2026 · EN
- How To Earn $500 A Month From Cracker Barrel Stock Ahead Of Q4 EarningsYahoo Finance — News · 20 Sept 2026 · EN
- Cracker Barrel Stock Doubled This Year. It’s Time to Ask For the Check.Yahoo Finance — News · 11 Sept 2026 · EN
- Cracker Barrel CEO to step down after overseeing logo backlash last yearThe Guardian World · 27 Jul 2026 · RO
- Items found behind a Georgia Cracker Barrel lead to charges in 1985 Ohio murderThe Guardian World · 08 Jul 2026 · RO
The latest news item in our archive is from 23 Sept 2026; the newest SEC filing is from 06 Oct 2026. The press archive comes from the RSS feeds we follow and does not necessarily cover the latest event — the filings alongside do.
SEC filings
- Proxy statement06 Oct 2026
- Annual report25 Sept 2026
- Current report23 Sept 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report27 Jul 2026Departure or appointment of officers · Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report20 Jul 2026Creation of a direct financial obligation · Exit or disposal costs · Material impairment · Regulation FD disclosure · Other events · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report09 Jun 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Quarterly report09 Jun 2026
- Current report01 May 2026Departure or appointment of officers
- Current report04 Mar 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Quarterly report04 Mar 2026
Sources
- [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2026-07-31 · SEC / Cracker Barrel Old Country Store, Inc. · 25 Sept 2026
- [2] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / Cracker Barrel Old Country Store, Inc. · 23 Sept 2026
Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.