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olivLaw · US equity research

CAVA Group, Inc. CAVA

Retail-Eating Places · SIC 5812 · Vertical: Retail-Eating Places (SIC 5812)

61.98USD+2.77% · 1 dayClose 04 Nov 2026

CAVA Group is a fast-casual chain of Mediterranean restaurants that combines taste and health and makes its dips and spreads in-house. The company keeps expanding quickly in 2026, and rising comparable sales show the brand still attracts consumers as its restaurant count reaches 476. CAVA Revenue reached 1169.3 million USD in fiscal 2025.

The AI analysis may be outdated: new filings came after its sources (see the «AI analysis» section).

At the close of 04 Nov 2026, CAVA Group, Inc. (CAVA) stock was 61.98 USD (+2.77% on the day), with market capitalisation 7.2 bn USD, P/E 114.8 on diluted EPS of 0.54 USD over the last 12 months, beta 1.63, 52-week range 43.59–97.39 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q2 2026): revenue of 368.4 m USD (+31.3% YoY), net income of 23.0 m USD (+25.3% YoY), diluted EPS 0.19 USD.

Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.

Market cap
7.2 bn USD
shares as of 04 Aug 2026
P/E (TTM)
114.8
Diluted EPS TTM 0.54 · TTM to 28 Dec 2025
E/P (TTM)
0.87%
TTM to 28 Dec 2025
Dividend yield
unavailable
Beta (2y)
1.63
Volatility (1y) 59%
52-week range
43.5997.39

Price history

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Technical reading

RSI (14)
62.8
strong (55–70)
Bollinger (20, 2)
49.27 – 62.35
in the upper half of the band · %B 0.97 · band width 23.4%
SMA 50 / 200
56.04 / 71.39
mixed trend
MACD (12, 26, 9)
1.24 / 0.22
MACD above signal

Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).

Performance

CompanyS&P 500vs S&P 500Vertical median
1 month+14.6%−1.1%+15.7 pp—
3 months−6.3%−0.5%−5.9 pp—
6 months−30.8%+4.4%−35.1 pp—
Year to date+5.6%+12.3%−6.7 pp—
1 year+19.9%+13.5%+6.3 pp+6.6%
3 years+72.6%+76.4%−3.9 pp−16.1%
5 yearsunavailable+63.7%unavailable—
Max drawdown (1y)
−48.9%
20 Apr 2026 → 16 Sept 2026
Max drawdown (5y)
−71.1%
06 Dec 2024 → 20 Nov 2025
Compound annual growth (5y)
unavailable
S&P 500 +10.4%

Price returns, dividends excluded.

Quarterly results

Latest quarter: Q2 2026 · 12 Jul 2026

Revenue
368.4 m USD
+31.3% YoY
Net income
23.0 m USD
+25.3% YoY
Diluted EPS
0.19
+18.8% YoY
net / operating
6.2% / 7.3%

Quarterly margins

Quarterly statements · USD

Fiscal yearQ4 '23Q2 '24Q3 '24Q4 '24Q2 '25Q3 '25Q4 '25Q2 '26
Revenue177.2 m233.5 m243.8 m227.4 m280.6 m292.2 m275.0 m368.4 m
Cost of revenue137.3 m171.1 m181.2 m176.0 m205.9 m219.9 m215.6 m272.9 m
Gross profit39.9 m62.4 m62.6 m—————
SG&A24.7 m28.3 m29.8 m28.5 m32.1 m31.5 m32.5 m39.8 m
Operating income-1.6 m16.1 m13.8 m4.0 m19.6 m17.1 m2.8 m26.8 m
Depreciation & amortisation12.3 m13.7 m14.3 m15.0 m16.8 m17.6 m18.4 m21.0 m
Pre-tax income2.7 m20.0 m17.9 m7.7 m23.7 m20.7 m6.1 m30.6 m
Income tax652.0 k287.0 k-57.0 k-70.9 m5.3 m5.9 m1.2 m7.6 m
Net income2.0 m19.7 m18.0 m78.6 m18.4 m14.7 m4.9 m23.0 m
Diluted EPS0.02 ≈0.170.150.66 ≈0.160.120.04 ≈0.19
Operating cash flow24.0 m—43.9 m ≈29.9 m—45.6 m ≈40.3 m—
Capex31.2 m—20.5 m ≈27.7 m—44.3 m ≈37.4 m—
Share repurchases1.5 m———————

≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)

E/P over time

E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.

Today's P/E sits at the 67 percentile of its own 3-quarter history (min 104.0, median 111.4, max 204.7; quarters with earnings only).

Fiscal years

Fiscal year20212022202320242025
Revenue500.1 m564.1 m728.7 m963.7 m1.2 bn
Revenue YoYunavailable+12.8%+29.2%+32.3%+22.4%
Net income-37.4 m-59.0 m13.3 m130.3 m63.7 m
Net income YoYunavailableunavailableunavailable+881.3%−51.1%
Diluted EPS-51.06-44.410.211.100.54
Diluted EPS YoYunavailableunavailableunavailable+423.8%−50.9%
net %-7.5%-10.5%1.8%13.5%5.4%
Free cash flow-52.9 m-98.1 m-41.7 m52.9 m26.1 m

Reported results vs expectations

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Balance sheet & financial health

Fiscal year 2025 · 28 Dec 2025

Cash
282.9 m USD
Financial debt
unavailable USD
Net debt
unavailable USD
Equity
779.7 m USD
Total assets
1.4 bn USD
Debt / equity
unavailable
Current ratio
2.65x
ROE
8.6%
ROA
5.0%
FCF margin
2.2%

Financial statements (source on every figure)

Revenue and net income (USD)

Margins

Income statement · USD

Revenue
2023
728.7 m
2024
963.7 m
2025
1.2 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified

Cost of revenue
2023
548.4 m
2024
721.9 m
2025
889.2 m

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified

Gross profit
2023
180.3 m
2024
241.8 m ≈
2025
290.5 m ≈

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026derived

SG&A
2023
101.5 m
2024
120.5 m
2025
137.5 m

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified

Operating income
2023
4.7 m
2024
43.1 m
2025
55.3 m

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified

Depreciation & amortisation
2023
47.4 m
2024
60.4 m
2025
73.7 m

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified

EBITDA
2023
52.2 m ≈
2024
103.5 m ≈
2025
128.9 m ≈

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026derived

Pre-tax income
2023
14.0 m
2024
59.9 m
2025
70.8 m

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified

Income tax
2023
768.0 k
2024
-70.4 m
2025
7.1 m

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified

Net income
2023
13.3 m
2024
130.3 m
2025
63.7 m

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified

Diluted EPS
2023
0.21
2024
1.10
2025
0.54

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified

Weighted average diluted shares
2023
63.4 m
2024
118.3 m
2025
118.3 m

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified

Balance sheet · USD

Cash
2023
332.4 m
2024
366.1 m
2025
282.9 m

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified

Receivables
2023
3.7 m
2024
4.8 m
2025
6.3 m

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified

Inventories
2023
5.6 m
2024
7.6 m
2025
9.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified

Current assets
2023
354.9 m
2024
394.2 m
2025
431.1 m

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified

Property, plant & equipment, net
2023
330.7 m
2024
372.9 m
2025
457.5 m

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified

Goodwill
2023
1.9 m
2024
1.9 m
2025
1.9 m

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified

Intangibles (excl. goodwill)
2023
1.4 m
2024
1.4 m
2025
1.8 m

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified

Total assets
2023
983.8 m
2024
1.2 bn
2025
1.4 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified

Accounts payable
2023
17.2 m
2024
25.6 m
2025
37.5 m

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified

Current liabilities
2023
109.0 m
2024
132.6 m
2025
162.7 m

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified

Total liabilities
2023
413.0 m
2024
474.1 m
2025
580.4 m

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified

Equity
2023
570.8 m †
2024
695.6 m †
2025
779.7 m †

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified

Cash flow · USD

Operating cash flow
2023
97.1 m
2024
161.0 m
2025
184.8 m

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified

Capex
2023
138.8 m
2024
108.1 m
2025
158.7 m

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified

Free cash flow
2023
-41.7 m ≈
2024
52.9 m ≈
2025
26.1 m ≈

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026derived

Investing cash flow
2023
-138.8 m
2024
-108.1 m
2025
-273.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified

Financing cash flow
2023
335.0 m
2024
-19.2 m
2025
5.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified

Share repurchases
2023
3.1 m
2024
—
2025
—

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2024verified

Computed indicators

Growth

Revenue growth (YoY)
22.4%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Revenue CAGR 3Y
27.9%
computed by olivLawFY 2022 → FY 2025
Revenue CAGR 5Y
unavailable
input data missing
EBIT growth (YoY)
28.2%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Net income growth (YoY)
-51.1%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Net income CAGR 3Y
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
Net income CAGR 5Y
unavailable
input data missing
EPS growth (YoY)
-50.9%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
EPS CAGR 3Y
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
EPS CAGR 5Y
unavailable
input data missing
FCF growth (YoY)
-50.6%
computed by olivLawFY 2025

Profitability

Gross margin
24.6%
computed by olivLawTTM to 12 Jul 2026
EBITDA margin
11.2%
computed by olivLawTTM to 12 Jul 2026
EBIT margin
5.2%
computed by olivLawTTM to 12 Jul 2026
Net margin
4.8%
computed by olivLawTTM to 12 Jul 2026
FCF margin
3.6%
computed by olivLawTTM to 12 Jul 2026

Returns

ROE
8.3%
computed by olivLawTTM to 12 Jul 2026 · balance sheet at 12 Jul 2026
ROA
4.7%
computed by olivLawTTM to 12 Jul 2026 · balance sheet at 12 Jul 2026
ROIC
unavailable
input data missing
ROCE
5.5%
computed by olivLawTTM to 12 Jul 2026 · balance sheet at 12 Jul 2026
Payout ratio (EPS)
unavailable
input data missing
Payout ratio (FCF)
unavailable
input data missing

Balance sheet

Net debt
unavailable
input data missing
Net debt / EBITDA
unavailable
input data missing
Debt / equity
unavailable
input data missing
Interest coverage
unavailable
input data missing

Liquidity

Current ratio
2.5x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 12 Jul 2026
Quick ratio
2.4x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 12 Jul 2026
Cash ratio
1.7x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 12 Jul 2026

Cash

Operating cash flow
220.5 m USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 12 Jul 2026
Capital expenditure
171.4 m USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 12 Jul 2026
Free cash flow
49.0 m USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 12 Jul 2026
FCF conversion
74.0%
computed by olivLawTTM to 12 Jul 2026
Cash conversion
142.7%
computed by olivLawTTM to 12 Jul 2026

Efficiency

Days sales outstanding
2 days
computed by olivLawTTM to 12 Jul 2026 · balance sheet at 12 Jul 2026
Days inventory outstanding
3 days
computed by olivLawTTM to 12 Jul 2026 · balance sheet at 12 Jul 2026
Days payables outstanding
13 days
computed by olivLawTTM to 12 Jul 2026 · balance sheet at 12 Jul 2026
Cash conversion cycle
-7 days
computed by olivLawTTM to 12 Jul 2026 · balance sheet at 12 Jul 2026

Market and valuation

Market capitalisation
7.2 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 12 Jul 2026
Enterprise value
unavailable
input data missing
Market cap / net income TTM
109.3x
computed by olivLawTTM to 12 Jul 2026
P/E (TTM)
109.3x
computed by olivLawTTM to 12 Jul 2026
Earnings yield
0.9%
computed by olivLawTTM to 12 Jul 2026
P/B
8.6x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 12 Jul 2026
P/S
5.3x
computed by olivLawTTM to 12 Jul 2026 · balance sheet at 12 Jul 2026
EV/EBITDA
unavailable
input data missing
EV/EBIT
unavailable
input data missing
EV/Sales
unavailable
input data missing
P/FCF
147.7x
computed by olivLawTTM to 12 Jul 2026 · balance sheet at 12 Jul 2026
FCF yield
0.7%
computed by olivLawTTM to 12 Jul 2026 · balance sheet at 12 Jul 2026
Dividend yield
unavailable
no dividend in the structured statements; a missing line is not a confirmed zero
Shareholder yield (distributions)
unavailable
input data missing

1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.

Valuation

olivLaw classification

Insufficient data
What is missing
  • score weight coverage: 43.8% of at least 60%

A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.

Closing price

61.98 USD

04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series

Market cap: 7.2 bn USD

Key indicators

Market capitalisation
7.2 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 12 Jul 2026
P/E (TTM)
109.3x
computed by olivLawTTM to 12 Jul 2026
P/B
8.6x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 12 Jul 2026
EV/EBITDA
unavailable
input data missing
ROE
8.3%
computed by olivLawTTM to 12 Jul 2026 · balance sheet at 12 Jul 2026
Net margin
4.8%
computed by olivLawTTM to 12 Jul 2026
Revenue growth (YoY)
22.4%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Dividend yield
unavailable
no dividend in the structured statements; a missing line is not a confirmed zero

Coverage and freshness

30/37 reporting lines present
Latest full fiscal year: 2025
Latest reported period: 12 Jul 2026
Latest balance sheet date: 12 Jul 2026
Share count (cover of the latest filing), as of: 04 Aug 2026
Source: SEC (XBRL)published 12 Aug 2026
verified 566derived 54

Score by group

44% · Insufficient data

Estimated value range

Low
10.31
USD per share
Mid
12.78
USD per share
High
18.68
USD per share
Price: 61.98 USD
The price is above the range
Potential to the central value: -79.4% (value / price − 1)
Margin of safety: -385.0% (1 − price / value)
Agreement between methods: single method · 1 methods used · 1 independent bases

The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 10.31 – 18.68 USD.

Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.

Method ranges (USD per share)

— — Mid · ▏ Price

Valuation methods

  • DCF (discounted cash flow)unavailable · input data missing
  • Peers: EV/EBITDAunavailable · net debt missing: EV cannot be bridged to equity (missing debt is not zero)
  • Peers: P/E10.31 – 18.68 (Mid 12.78)
    23 companies used · median multiple 22.5x · quartiles 18.2x – 32.9x
    ARCO, ARMK, BDL, BJRI, BLMN, CAKE, CBRL, CMG, DRI, EAT, FWRG, GTIM, JACK, LOCO, MCD, NATH, PTLO, PZZA, QSR, TXRH, WING, YUM, YUMC
  • Dividend discount (DDM)unavailable · the company pays no dividend: a dividend model needs an explicit initiation assumption
Multiple comparisons use the SIC vertical: Retail-Eating Places (SIC 5812)

Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.

Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)

Risk-free rate
4.3%
Equity risk premium
5.0%
Beta (default)
1.00
Cost of equity
9.3%
Terminal growth
2.5%

Factor scorecard

Insufficient data

Minimum-evidence gate: score weight coverage: 43.8% of at least 60%

FactorValueScoreWeight used
ROIC · Qualityunavailableunavailable—
Net margin · Quality4.8%69 (vs peers)14%
FCF conversion · Quality74.0%63 (on a fixed band)14%
Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth27.9%100 (on a fixed band)19%
EPS CAGR 3Y · Growthunavailableunavailable—
Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheetunavailableunavailable—
Interest coverage · Balance sheetunavailableunavailable—
Current ratio · Balance sheet2.5x100 (on a fixed band)10%
P/E (TTM) · Valuation109.3x4 (vs peers)24%
EV/EBITDA · Valuationunavailableunavailable—
FCF yield · Valuation0.7%8 (on a fixed band)19%
Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returnsunavailableunavailable—
Payout ratio (FCF) · Returnsunavailableunavailable—

Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.

Score groups

  • Balance sheet· partial100/100 · 1/3 factors with a value
  • Growth· partial100/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
  • Quality66/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
  • Returns· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
  • Valuation6/100 · 2/3 factors with a value

A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.

Memo

CAVA Group, Inc. (CAVA). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2026-07-12.

Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 1.2 bn USD in 2025; YoY growth 22.4%; net margin 4.8%; ROE 8.3%.

The estimated value range is 10.31–18.68 USD per share (median of 1 methods, agreement: single method); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 12.78 USD, the price of 61.98 USD leaves a potential of -79.4% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of -385.0% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.

Insufficient data for a verdict (score weight coverage: 43.8% of at least 60%).

Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.

What supports the thesis

  • Revenue CAGR 3Y: 27.9%
  • Current ratio: 2.5x

What contradicts it

  • P/E (TTM): 109.3x
  • FCF yield: 0.7%
  • The price is above the estimated value range

Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): ROIC, EPS CAGR 3Y, Net debt / EBITDA, Interest coverage, EV/EBITDA, Shareholder yield (distributions), Payout ratio (FCF).

Versus the vertical median

Retail-Eating Places (SIC 5812) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 39 companies

Multiples and returns vs the median

P/E
109.3x
vertical median 25.1x
above median (+334.6%)
EV/EBITDA
—
vertical median 10.1x
P/S
5.3x
vertical median 0.7x
above median (+634.9%)
P/B
8.6x
vertical median 2.4x
above median (+255.0%)
ROE
8.3%
vertical median 6.7%
above median (+24.7%)
Net margin
4.8%
vertical median 1.7%
above median (+191.6%)
EBIT margin
5.2%
vertical median 2.7%
above median (+91.5%)
Revenue YoY
22.4%
vertical median 4.7%
above median (+381.4%)
Net debt/EBITDA
—
vertical median 2.0x
Dividend yield
—
vertical median 2.1%

Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)

Companies in the vertical

Market capP/EROENet marginRevenue YoY1A / 3A
MCDMcDONALD’S CORPORATION198.3 bn0.0—31.7%+3.7%−10% / −1%
YUMYum! Brands, Inc.45.4 bn20.9—25.4%+8.8%+9% / +32%
CMGChipotle Mexican Grill, Inc.44.5 bn32.948.5%10.8%+5.4%+2% / −20%
DRIDarden Restaurants, Inc.26.1 bn22.555.1%8.8%+9.4%+28% / +47%
QSRRestaurant Brands International Inc.24.8 bn18.253.8%20.1%+12.2%+8% / +10%
YUMCYum China Holdings, Inc.17.0 bn18.317.5%7.8%+4.4%+3% / +15%
ARMKAramark13.8 bn36.711.8%1.9%+6.4%+41% / +87%
TXRHTexas Roadhouse, Inc.12.9 bn31.328.1%6.8%+9.4%+12% / +75%
EATBrinker International, Inc.9.2 bn19.4134.7%8.4%+7.9%+43% / +512%
CAVACAVA Group, Inc.7.2 bn109.38.3%4.8%+22.4%+20% / +73%
CAKEThe Cheesecake Factory Incorporated5.8 bn27.441.6%5.2%+4.7%+142% / +268%
WINGWingstop Inc.4.5 bn39.3—16.0%+11.4%−37% / −30%
CBRLCracker Barrel Old Country Store, Inc.1.6 bn50.26.7%1.0%−4.7%+143% / +5%
ARCOArcos Dorados Holdings Inc.1.5 bn7.033.2%4.5%+4.7%−7% / −39%
BJRIBj’s Restaurants, Inc.1.3 bn33.010.4%2.9%+3.1%+61% / +106%
SGSweetgreen, Inc.1.1 bn117.93.1%2.0%+0.4%+82% / +25%
BLMNBloomin’ Brands, Inc.939.3 m35.16.7%0.7%+0.1%+55% / −53%
FWRGFirst Watch Restaurant Group, Inc.833.3 m42.13.1%1.5%+20.3%−27% / −25%
PZZAPapa John’s International, Inc.658.1 m25.1—1.4%−0.3%−52% / −69%
LOCOEl Pollo Loco Holdings, Inc.501.2 m14.111.8%7.0%+3.6%+51% / +98%
DINDine Brands Global, Inc.448.6 m106.7—0.4%+8.2%+17% / −16%
NATHNathan's Famous, Inc.418.2 m21.1—11.8%+9.4%−4% / +56%
PTLOPortillo's Inc.336.8 m29.83.0%1.9%+3.0%+4% / −65%
PLAYDave & Buster’s Entertainment, Inc.305.8 m—-69.7%-4.3%−1.4%−50% / −79%
JACKJack In The Box Inc.275.6 m8.2—2.4%−6.7%−27% / −80%

1- and 3-year price returns: for CAVA from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.

olivLaw engine forecast

The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.

The engine has no published run for this company yet.

Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)

Illustrative scenarios

Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.

Bear
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Base
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Bull
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Nothing is saved.

Estimated price (USD)

Estimated priceBearBaseBull
1 years
40.50
Total return -35% · Per year -35%
71.28
Total return 15% · Per year 15%
106.92
Total return 73% · Per year 73%
3 years
48.04
Total return -22% · Per year -8%
94.26
Total return 52% · Per year 15%
153.96
Total return 148% · Per year 35%
5 years
56.98
Total return -8% · Per year -2%
124.66
Total return 101% · Per year 15%
221.70
Total return 258% · Per year 29%
What moves the 3-year price the most
  • Exit P/E± 23.57
  • Net margin± 16.50
  • Annual revenue growth± 12.30
  • Annual dilution± 1.39

AI analysis

AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 12 Aug 2026; since then the company filed 8-K (04 Nov 2026 · results).

In brief

CAVA Group is a fast-casual chain of Mediterranean restaurants that combines taste and health and makes its dips and spreads in-house. The company keeps expanding quickly in 2026, and rising comparable sales show the brand still attracts consumers as its restaurant count reaches 476 2. CAVA Revenue reached 1169.3 million USD in fiscal 2025 1.

SWOT

Strengths

  • The brand has a clear position in healthy Mediterranean cuisine and a customizable menu with a large number of ingredient combinations 1.
  • The company makes its dips and spreads in-house, giving it control over quality and a production capacity that is hard to replicate 1.
  • New restaurants are reported to be performing above expectations, suggesting the business model is portable to new markets 3.

Weaknesses

  • Costs of opening new restaurants are high in the early months, and their profitability can take time to reach 1.
  • The company relies on a few production sites, and a disruption at one of them could affect the whole network 1.
  • Percentage growth could slow as the restaurant base becomes larger 1.

Opportunities

  • Expansion into new states and cities where the company is not yet present could support long-term growth 1.
  • Developing digital channels, catering and the loyalty program could increase guest visit frequency 1.
  • Growing the CPG category in grocery stores could bring extra revenue from products sold outside restaurants 1.

Threats

  • Intense competition from fast-casual chains and traditional restaurants could pressure prices and sales volume 1.
  • Rising food and wage costs could reduce margins if prices cannot be raised enough 1.
  • A food safety incident or reputational crisis could quickly damage guest confidence in the whole brand 1.

Risks

  • Intense competitionhigh

    Larger competitors could have economies of scale and stronger marketing resources, allowing them to limit price increases or use discounts 1.

  • Delays in opening new restaurantshigh

    If site identification and construction slow down, the growth plan could be affected and costs could rise 1.

  • Brand reputationhigh

    Negative publicity, even if inaccurate, could affect the whole chain, especially through social media and review platforms 1.

  • Labor and ingredient costsmedium

    Higher wages and ingredient costs could reduce restaurant-level margins if they cannot be passed on through prices 13.

  • Dependence on third-party delivery channelsmedium

    Delivery partner commissions could reduce the profitability of digital sales, and the company does not fully control this relationship 1.

Investment thesis

What would need to be true (bull case)

  • Rising comparable sales and guest traffic in the second quarter of 2026 could indicate a solid brand with expanding demand 23.
  • New restaurants that exceed expectations could support expansion into new markets if the model stays portable at larger scale 3.
  • Vertical integration through in-house dips and spreads could create an advantage that competitors find hard to copy 1.

What would break the thesis

  • Restaurant-level margin declined slightly in the second quarter of 2026, and cost pressure could continue if prices do not keep pace with inflation 3.
  • Percentage growth could slow as the restaurant base increases, and expansion into new markets could prove more costly 1.
  • Reliance on a limited number of production sites and direct suppliers could expose the company to supply chain disruptions 1.

What to watch

  • Delivery of the fiscal 2026 guidance for Net New CAVA Restaurant Openings2026
  • Development of Same Restaurant Sales and guest traffic in the coming quartersQ3 2026
  • Restaurant-level profit margin against the fiscal 2026 guidance rangeQ3 2026
  • Performance of new restaurants and the digital sales share in the next annual reportnext 10-K

Products, market & competition

AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 12 Aug 2026; since then the company filed 8-K (04 Nov 2026 · results).

The business

The company manufactures its dips, spreads and dressing bases in-house for its restaurants and for sale in grocery stores, through production sites in Maryland and Virginia 1. This vertical integration gives control over quality and costs, but it also concentrates part of the activity in a few production locations 1.

Segments

CAVA Foods (production and CPG)

CAVA Foods covers the production of dips and spreads for restaurants and the sale of packaged goods in grocery stores; below reporting thresholds, it is included in Other 1. The company says CPG distribution is focused mainly in the Northeast and that the Laurel expansion supports this business 1.

Market context

The company operates in the fast-casual restaurant market and in the Mediterranean food category, which benefits from rising interest in authentic food and health 1. The pace of network growth and revenue above 1 billion USD in fiscal 2025 point to a considerable scale of the business in this segment 1.

Competition is intense and includes national, regional and local restaurants, fast-casual chains, traditional fast-food, grocery stores and delivery services 1. Growth in the Mediterranean category could attract new competitors that copy the company's business model 1.

Trends

  • Preference for authentic and ethnic foodtailwind

    The company points to a shift in consumer preferences toward authentic and ethnic cuisine, which could support demand for its Mediterranean menu 1.

  • Growing focus on health and wellnesstailwind

    The emphasis on healthy eating is seen as favorable, since the menu offers vegan, vegetarian, gluten-free and other specialized diets 1.

  • Construction costs and laborheadwind

    Delays and rising construction costs, linked to labor shortages, inflation and tariffs, could slow the opening of new restaurants and reduce sales at new locations 1.

  • Digitalization and online ordersmixed

    Demand for digital orders and delivery adds growth but also third-party commission costs, which could affect margins, although the company says prices are adjusted to offset them 13.

Competitive position

The company states it faces competition from national, regional and local restaurants, especially in fast-casual and traditional fast-food, as well as from grocery stores and delivery services 1. Many competitors have a longer market presence, better locations and greater resources, which may help them attract guests more easily 1.

In packaged goods the company competes with other producers of dips and spreads, and in digital channels it expects growing competition from food delivery services 1. The company's position could rest on its brand, direct sourcing and integrated production capacity 1.

  • National and regional fast-casual restaurants

    Direct competitors in fast-casual offering dine-in, carry-out, delivery or catering services 1.

  • Traditional fast-food restaurants

    Competitors for guests looking for speed and price within the limited-service restaurant category 1.

  • Grocery stores

    Competition for CPG dips and spreads sold on shelves and for home-prepared meals 1.

  • Food delivery services

    Digital competition, since delivery platforms promote many restaurant options and can shape guest choices 1.

News & filings

In the press

The latest news item in our archive is from 02 Nov 2026; the newest SEC filing is from 04 Nov 2026. The press archive comes from the RSS feeds we follow and does not necessarily cover the latest event — the filings alongside do.

SEC filings

Sources

  1. [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2025-12-28 · SEC / CAVA Group, Inc. · 25 Feb 2026
  2. [2] Form 10-Q, quarter ended 2026-07-12 · SEC / CAVA Group, Inc. · 12 Aug 2026
  3. [3] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / CAVA Group, Inc. · 11 Aug 2026

Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.