olivLaw · US equity research
First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. FWRG
Retail-Eating Places · SIC 5812 · Vertical: Retail-Eating Places (SIC 5812)
First Watch Restaurant Group runs a chain of breakfast, brunch and lunch restaurants with made-to-order cooking and a single daytime shift. The company is expanding its network and, per its second quarter 2026 results, is accelerating growth, with total revenues of 354.7 million USD in the quarter.
The AI analysis may be outdated: new filings came after its sources (see the «AI analysis» section).
At the close of 04 Nov 2026, First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. (FWRG) stock was 13.50 USD (−0.95% on the day), with market capitalisation 833.3 m USD, P/E 42.1 on diluted EPS of 0.32 USD over the last 12 months, beta 1.11, 52-week range 10.11–18.56 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q3 2026): revenue of 349.9 m USD (+10.7% YoY), net income of 4.8 m USD (+60.0% YoY), diluted EPS 0.08 USD.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
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Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 68.7
- strong (55–70)
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 10.28 – 13.55
- in the upper half of the band · %B 0.98 · band width 27.5%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 11.39 / 12.38
- mixed trend
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- 0.51 / 0.28
- MACD above signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | S&P 500 | vs S&P 500 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | +28.4% | −1.1% | +29.5 pp | — |
| 3 months | +5.0% | −0.5% | +5.4 pp | — |
| 6 months | +10.9% | +4.4% | +6.5 pp | — |
| Year to date | −10.5% | +12.3% | −22.8 pp | — |
| 1 year | −23.3% | +13.5% | −36.8 pp | +8.3% |
| 3 years | −21.5% | +76.4% | −97.9 pp | −16.1% |
| 5 years | −32.9% | +63.7% | −96.6 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
Latest quarter: Q3 2026 · 27 Sept 2026
Quarterly margins
Quarterly statements · USD
| Fiscal year | Q4 '24 | Q1 '25 | Q2 '25 | Q3 '25 | Q4 '25 | Q1 '26 | Q2 '26 | Q3 '26 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 263.3 m | 282.2 m | 307.9 m | 316.0 m | 316.4 m | 331.0 m | 354.7 m | 349.9 m |
| Operating income | 3.9 m | 1.1 m | 7.3 m | 10.1 m | 9.0 m | 999.0 k | 8.1 m | 11.0 m |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 15.8 m | 16.6 m | 18.1 m | 19.7 m | 20.7 m | 21.4 m | 21.8 m | 22.7 m |
| Interest expense | 3.2 m | 3.3 m | 4.0 m | 4.6 m | 4.8 m | 4.8 m | 4.9 m | 4.9 m |
| Pre-tax income | 738.0 k | -1.5 m | 3.6 m | 5.7 m | 4.4 m | -3.4 m | 3.4 m | 6.5 m |
| Income tax | 39.0 k | -708.0 k | 1.5 m | 2.7 m | -10.7 m | -749.0 k | 1.0 m | 1.7 m |
| Net income | 699.0 k | -829.0 k | 2.1 m | 3.0 m | 15.2 m | -2.7 m | 2.3 m | 4.8 m |
| Diluted EPS | 0.01 ≈ | -0.01 | 0.03 | 0.05 | 0.24 ≈ | -0.04 | 0.04 | 0.08 |
| Operating cash flow | 22.9 m | 20.1 m | 39.4 m ≈ | 47.9 m ≈ | 18.5 m | 34.5 m | 27.4 m ≈ | 48.5 m ≈ |
| Capex | 40.6 m | 36.5 m | 41.1 m ≈ | 42.5 m ≈ | 36.8 m | 29.3 m | 40.5 m ≈ | 43.4 m ≈ |
≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Today's P/E sits at the 42 percentile of its own 19-quarter history (min 22.4, median 48.8, max 323.8; quarters with earnings only).
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 436.4 m | 342.4 m | 601.2 m | 730.2 m | 891.6 m | 1.0 bn | 1.2 bn |
| Revenue YoY | unavailable | −21.5% | +75.6% | +21.5% | +22.1% | +13.9% | +20.3% |
| Net income | -45.4 m | -49.7 m | -2.1 m | 6.9 m | 25.4 m | 18.9 m | 19.4 m |
| Net income YoY | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | +267.5% | −25.4% | +2.7% |
| Diluted EPS | -1.01 | -1.10 | -0.04 | 0.11 | 0.41 | 0.30 | 0.31 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | +272.7% | −26.8% | +3.3% |
| net % | -10.4% | -14.5% | -0.4% | 0.9% | 2.8% | 1.9% | 1.6% |
| Free cash flow | -37.7 m | -45.1 m | 27.7 m | 718.0 k | 12.0 m | -12.2 m | -31.0 m |
Reported results vs expectations
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Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2025 · 28 Dec 2025
- Cash
- 21.2 m USD
- Financial debt
- 13.3 m USD
- Net debt
- -7.9 m USD
- Equity
- 626.3 m USD
- Total assets
- 1.7 bn USD
- Debt / equity
- 0.02x
- Current ratio
- 0.29x
- ROE
- 3.2%
- ROA
- 1.2%
- FCF margin
- -2.5%
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (USD)
Margins
Income statement · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 342.4 m | 601.2 m | 730.2 m | 891.6 m | 1.0 bn | 1.2 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified |
| Operating income | -47.2 m | 22.2 m | 16.9 m | 41.3 m | 38.9 m | 27.5 m | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 30.7 m | 32.4 m | 34.2 m | 41.2 m | 57.7 m | 75.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified |
| EBITDA | -16.5 m ≈ | 54.6 m ≈ | 51.1 m ≈ | 82.5 m ≈ | 96.6 m ≈ | 102.5 m ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026derived |
| Interest expense | 22.8 m | 20.1 m | 5.2 m | 8.1 m | 12.6 m | 16.7 m | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified |
| Pre-tax income | -69.6 m | 370.0 k | 12.6 m | 36.1 m | 28.0 m | 12.1 m | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified |
| Income tax | -19.9 m | 2.5 m | 5.7 m | 10.7 m | 9.1 m | -7.3 m | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified |
| Net income | -49.7 m | -2.1 m | 6.9 m | 25.4 m | 18.9 m | 19.4 m | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | -1.10 | -0.04 | 0.11 | 0.41 | 0.30 | 0.31 | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified |
| Weighted average diluted shares | 45.0 m | 48.2 m | 60.1 m | 61.2 m | 62.4 m | 62.8 m | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating income + Depreciation & amortisation.
Balance sheet · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 38.8 m | 51.9 m | 49.7 m | 49.6 m | 33.3 m | 21.2 m | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified |
| Receivables | 3.9 m | 4.5 m | 6.2 m | 5.5 m | 7.2 m | 6.9 m | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified |
| Inventories | 2.9 m | 4.0 m | 5.0 m | 5.4 m | 6.1 m | 7.2 m | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified |
| Current assets | 49.0 m | 67.7 m | 67.3 m | 71.2 m | 55.9 m | 49.1 m | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | 160.7 m | 164.7 m | — | — | — | — | SEC (XBRL)· 23 Mar 2022verified |
| Goodwill | 345.2 m | 345.2 m | 345.2 m | 359.9 m | 398.6 m | 420.2 m | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified |
| Intangibles (excl. goodwill) | 143.7 m | 143.0 m | 143.2 m | 151.2 m | 167.6 m | 174.9 m | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified |
| Total assets | 1.0 bn | 1.0 bn | 1.1 bn | 1.3 bn | 1.5 bn | 1.7 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified |
| Accounts payable | 4.2 m | 11.1 m | 7.6 m | 6.3 m | 7.0 m | 8.7 m | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified |
| Short-term debt | 3.6 m | 3.2 m | 6.3 m | 5.6 m | 9.2 m | 13.3 m | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified |
| Current liabilities | 76.5 m | 96.5 m | 100.0 m | 115.1 m | 138.5 m | 167.5 m | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified |
| Total liabilities | 686.6 m | 542.5 m | 581.3 m | 705.8 m | 919.0 m | 1.1 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified |
| Equity | 320.9 m † | 504.4 m † | 523.1 m † | 561.3 m † | 595.4 m † | 626.3 m † | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified |
† equity attributable to the parent's shareholders: in these years the issuer no longer reports the total including non-controlling interests.
Cash flow · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | -18.4 m | 63.0 m | 62.9 m | 95.3 m | 115.7 m | 125.9 m | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified |
| Capex | 26.7 m | 35.3 m | 62.2 m | 83.3 m | 127.9 m | 156.9 m | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified |
| Free cash flow | -45.1 m ≈ | 27.7 m ≈ | 718.0 k ≈ | 12.0 m ≈ | -12.2 m ≈ | -31.0 m ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026derived |
| Investing cash flow | -27.0 m | -35.7 m | -63.1 m | -123.4 m | -206.7 m | -213.8 m | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified |
| Financing cash flow | 73.3 m | -14.3 m | -2.0 m | 28.1 m | 74.3 m | 75.8 m | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating cash flow − Capex.
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
Score: 48 / 100
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 833.3 m USD
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
- Balance sheet43
- Growth100
- Valuation35
- Quality32
Estimated value range
The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 5.52 – 30.98 USD.
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Method ranges (USD per share)
— — Mid · ▏ Price
Valuation methods
- DCF (discounted cash flow)unavailable · the base of the ratio is not positive
- Peers: EV/EBITDA14.10 – 30.98 (Mid 19.29)21 companies used · median multiple 10.2x · quartiles 7.5x – 16.5xARCO, ARMK, BJRI, BLMN, CAKE, CBRL, DRI, LOCO, MCD, NDLS, PLAY, PTLO, PZZA, QSR, RICK, RRGB, STKS, TXRH, WING, YUM, YUMC
- Peers: P/E5.52 – 10.56 (Mid 7.65)20 companies used · median multiple 23.8x · quartiles 17.2x – 32.9xARCO, ARMK, BJRI, BLMN, CAKE, CBRL, CMG, DRI, EAT, JACK, LOCO, MB, MCD, PTLO, PZZA, QSR, TXRH, WING, YUM, YUMC
- Dividend discount (DDM)unavailable · the company pays no dividend: a dividend model needs an explicit initiation assumption
Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 4.3%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 9.3%
- Terminal growth
- 2.5%
Factor scorecard
Neutral profile · Score 48/100
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | 4.0% | 42 (vs peers) | 12% |
| Net margin · Quality | 1.5% | 49 (vs peers) | 7% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | -107.9% | 0 (on a fixed band) | 7% |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | 18.7% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 9% |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | 41.3% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 9% |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | -0.0x | 86 (vs peers) | 12% |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | 1.5x | 0 (on a fixed band) | 7% |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 0.2x | 0 (on a fixed band) | 5% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | 42.1x | 21 (vs peers) | 12% |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | 7.2x | 77 (vs peers) | 12% |
| FCF yield · Valuation | -2.5% | 0 (on a fixed band) | 9% |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet43/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
- Growth100/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
- Quality32/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
- Returns· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
- Valuation35/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. (FWRG). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2026-09-27.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 1.2 bn USD in 2025; YoY growth 20.3%; net margin 1.5%; ROE 3.1%; net debt/EBITDA -0.0x.
The estimated value range is 9.81–20.77 USD per share (median of 2 methods, agreement: low); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 13.47 USD, the price of 13.50 USD leaves a potential of -0.2% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of -0.2% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
olivLaw score 48/100, methodological classification: neutral profile (score, margin of safety and method agreement together; not a judgement of the right price). Groups assessed only in part: returns. Not investment advice.
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- Revenue CAGR 3Y: 18.7%
- EPS CAGR 3Y: 41.3%
- Net debt / EBITDA: -0.0x
- EV/EBITDA: 7.2x
What contradicts it
- FCF conversion: -107.9%
- Interest coverage: 1.5x
- Current ratio: 0.2x
- P/E (TTM): 42.1x
- FCF yield: -2.5%
- The valuation methods diverge
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): Shareholder yield (distributions), Payout ratio (FCF).
Versus the vertical median
Retail-Eating Places (SIC 5812) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 39 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MCDMcDONALD’S CORPORATION | 198.3 bn | 0.0 | — | 31.7% | +3.7% | −10% / −1% |
| YUMYum! Brands, Inc. | 45.4 bn | 20.9 | — | 25.4% | +8.8% | +9% / +32% |
| CMGChipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. | 44.5 bn | 32.9 | 48.5% | 10.8% | +5.4% | +2% / −20% |
| DRIDarden Restaurants, Inc. | 26.1 bn | 22.5 | 55.1% | 8.8% | +9.4% | +28% / +47% |
| QSRRestaurant Brands International Inc. | 24.8 bn | 18.2 | 53.8% | 20.1% | +12.2% | +8% / +10% |
| YUMCYum China Holdings, Inc. | 17.0 bn | 18.3 | 17.5% | 7.8% | +4.4% | +3% / +15% |
| ARMKAramark | 13.8 bn | 36.7 | 11.8% | 1.9% | +6.4% | +41% / +87% |
| TXRHTexas Roadhouse, Inc. | 12.9 bn | 31.3 | 28.1% | 6.8% | +9.4% | +12% / +75% |
| EATBrinker International, Inc. | 9.2 bn | 19.4 | 134.7% | 8.4% | +7.9% | +43% / +512% |
| CAVACAVA Group, Inc. | 7.2 bn | 109.3 | 8.3% | 4.8% | +22.4% | +27% / +82% |
| HDLSuper Hi International Holding Ltd. | 6.4 bn | 247.5 | 6.9% | 2.8% | +13.4% | −46% / unavailable |
| CAKEThe Cheesecake Factory Incorporated | 5.8 bn | 27.4 | 41.6% | 5.2% | +4.7% | +142% / +268% |
| WINGWingstop Inc. | 4.5 bn | 39.3 | — | 16.0% | +11.4% | −37% / −30% |
| CBRLCracker Barrel Old Country Store, Inc. | 1.6 bn | 50.2 | 6.7% | 1.0% | −4.7% | +143% / +5% |
| ARCOArcos Dorados Holdings Inc. | 1.5 bn | 7.0 | 33.2% | 4.5% | +4.7% | −7% / −39% |
| BJRIBj’s Restaurants, Inc. | 1.3 bn | 33.0 | 10.4% | 2.9% | +3.1% | +61% / +106% |
| SGSweetgreen, Inc. | 1.1 bn | 117.9 | 3.1% | 2.0% | +0.4% | +82% / +25% |
| BLMNBloomin’ Brands, Inc. | 939.3 m | 35.1 | 6.7% | 0.7% | +0.1% | +55% / −53% |
| FWRGFirst Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. | 833.3 m | 42.1 | 3.1% | 1.5% | +20.3% | −23% / −22% |
| PZZAPapa John’s International, Inc. | 658.1 m | 25.1 | — | 1.4% | −0.3% | −52% / −69% |
| LOCOEl Pollo Loco Holdings, Inc. | 501.2 m | 14.1 | 11.8% | 7.0% | +3.6% | +51% / +98% |
| DINDine Brands Global, Inc. | 448.6 m | 106.7 | — | 0.4% | +8.2% | +17% / −16% |
| PTLOPortillo's Inc. | 336.8 m | 29.8 | 3.0% | 1.9% | +3.0% | +4% / −65% |
| PLAYDave & Buster’s Entertainment, Inc. | 305.8 m | — | -69.7% | -4.3% | −1.4% | −50% / −79% |
| JACKJack In The Box Inc. | 275.6 m | 8.2 | — | 2.4% | −6.7% | −27% / −80% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for FWRG from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (USD)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | 8.73 Total return -35% · Per year -35% | 15.37 Total return 14% · Per year 14% | 23.06 Total return 71% · Per year 71% |
| 3 years | 10.36 Total return -23% · Per year -8% | 20.33 Total return 51% · Per year 15% | 33.20 Total return 146% · Per year 35% |
| 5 years | 12.29 Total return -9% · Per year -2% | 26.88 Total return 99% · Per year 15% | 47.81 Total return 254% · Per year 29% |
- Exit P/E± 5.08
- Net margin± 3.56
- Annual revenue growth± 2.65
- Annual dilution± 0.30
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 04 Aug 2026; since then the company filed 8-K (03 Nov 2026 · results), 10-Q (03 Nov 2026).
In brief
First Watch Restaurant Group runs a chain of breakfast, brunch and lunch restaurants with made-to-order cooking and a single daytime shift. The company is expanding its network and, per its second quarter 2026 results, is accelerating growth, with total revenues of 354.7 million USD in the quarter 23.
SWOT
Strengths
Weaknesses
- Operating margin declined in 2025 compared with the prior year, showing profitability is sensitive to costs 1.
- The network is geographically concentrated in the southeast, which increases exposure to regional conditions 1.
- The company depends on a small number of suppliers for a large share of its food and coffee 1.
Opportunities
Risks
- Sensitivity to economic conditionshigh
Restaurants depend on discretionary spending, and an economic slowdown or inflation could reduce traffic.
- New restaurants underperforminghigh
New restaurants, especially in unfamiliar markets, could perform below expectations or carry higher costs than estimated.
- Dependence on suppliersmedium
A small number of suppliers for food and coffee could lead to supply interruptions or price increases.
- Relationship with franchiseesmedium
Franchisees may face financial difficulties or conflicting interests, which could affect the brand and the network.
- Cybersecurity and datamedium
A security incident or breach of data rules could harm customers and raise the company's costs.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- If same-restaurant sales growth holds and traffic stays positive, revenues could keep rising in the coming years 23.
- Expanding the network and integrating franchisee restaurants could add revenue and margin if execution stays solid 13.
- A strong brand with awards and a single-shift model could support long-term guest and employee loyalty 1.
What would break the thesis
What to watch
- Delivery of the 2026 same-restaurant sales growth guidance2026
- Operating margin and Adjusted EBITDA against guidanceQ3 2026
- Number of new openings and franchisee restaurant acquisitions2026
- Trend in coffee costs and wage inflationnext 10-K
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 04 Aug 2026; since then the company filed 8-K (03 Nov 2026 · results), 10-Q (03 Nov 2026).
The business
First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. is a Delaware holding company operating Daytime Dining concepts serving made-to-order breakfast, brunch and lunch using fresh ingredients 1. At the end of fiscal 2025 it had 633 restaurants in 32 states, of which 560 were company-owned and 73 franchise-owned 1. Its model rests on one daytime shift, which optimizes operations and helps attract employees who prefer day hours 1.
The growth strategy combines new restaurant openings with the acquisition of restaurants run by franchisees, such as the 19 acquired in 2025 1. The company believes it has potential for more than 2,200 restaurants in the continental United States 1. Digital channels, off-premises orders and a loyalty program are used to drive restaurant traffic 12.
For 2026, the company updated its guidance after second quarter results, projecting same-restaurant sales growth and a net increase of 60 to 62 system-wide restaurants 3. Planned capital expenditures for the year are concentrated on new restaurant projects and remodels 3.
Segments
Market context
The US breakfast and brunch market is concentrated geographically in the southeast, where most of the company's restaurants are located 1. Revenues depend on consumer discretionary spending and local economic conditions 1. The company says its expansion potential across the rest of the country is significant 1.
Entry costs relate to site availability, workforce and construction costs 1. Food and labor inflation affects margins, and for 2026 the company expects restaurant-level wage inflation of 3.5% to 4.5% 2.
Trends
- Growth in digital traffic and off-premises orderstailwind
Takeout and third-party delivery integrations raise the share of off-premises sales, which could support revenue if customer habits persist 1.
- Return of restaurant traffictailwind
Same-restaurant traffic turned positive toward the end of the second quarter of 2026, which could support growth if the trend holds 2.
- Cost pressure on food and laborheadwind
Input and labor costs could compress margins if they are not offset by prices, particularly for coffee 12.
- Menu changes and demand for new ingredientsmixed
The rotating menu and pricier items such as newly introduced beef offerings can attract guests but also raise sourcing costs 2.
Competitive position
First Watch competes with other breakfast, brunch and lunch restaurants, especially in areas where it already has a strong presence 1. The company states it may not always compete effectively with such rivals, which it lists as a risk 1.
Competitive pressure rises as the company enters new markets where the brand is less known 1. Differentiation rests on the seasonal menu, service and the daytime experience 1.
- Other breakfast and brunch restaurants
Direct rivals for morning guests, described generically in the company's sources and not named in the texts provided.
- Lunch restaurants in retail areas
Competition for sites and guests in shopping centers where First Watch has its restaurants; the sources do not name them.
- Full-service restaurants in new markets
Rivals in markets the company is entering, where consumer preferences are harder to predict.
- Network franchisees
Not external rivals, but their interests may differ from the company's, which can affect the network.
Links, dependencies and risks
Who the company is tied to, from its own SEC filings (customers, suppliers, production, partners, competitors, countries, regulation), from the 5 %+ holders' statements (13D/13G) and from what other companies say about it. Click a node for its evidence; on a listed company the graph moves to it.
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News & filings
In the press
- The first watch featuring computer functionsHacker News · 26 Jul 2026 · EN
The latest news item in our archive is from 26 Jul 2026; the newest SEC filing is from 03 Nov 2026. The press archive comes from the RSS feeds we follow and does not necessarily cover the latest event — the filings alongside do.
SEC filings
- Current report03 Nov 2026Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
- Quarterly report03 Nov 2026
- Current report03 Nov 2026Results of operations · Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report04 Aug 2026Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
- Quarterly report04 Aug 2026
- Current report04 Aug 2026Results of operations · Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report (amendment)31 Jul 2026Shareholder vote
- Current report08 Jun 2026Departure or appointment of officers · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report21 May 2026Shareholder vote
- Quarterly report05 May 2026
Sources
- [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2025-12-28 · SEC / First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. · 24 Feb 2026
- [2] Form 10-Q, quarter ended 2026-06-28 · SEC / First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. · 04 Aug 2026
- [3] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. · 04 Aug 2026
Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.