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olivLaw · US equity research

Dave & Buster's Entertainment, Inc. PLAY

Retail-Eating Places · SIC 5812 · Vertical: Retail-Eating Places (SIC 5812)

8.78USD+6.81% · 1 dayClose 04 Nov 2026

Dave & Buster's Entertainment, Inc. (PLAY) owns and operates venues that combine entertainment and dining under the Dave & Buster's and Main Event brands, with revenue of 2102.8 million USD in fiscal 2025. The current context is declining comparable store sales and profitability under pressure, while the company tries to resume growth through its Back-to-Basics strategy.

At the close of 04 Nov 2026, Dave & Buster's Entertainment, Inc. (PLAY) stock was 8.78 USD (+6.81% on the day), with market capitalisation 305.8 m USD, dividend yield 7.06%, beta 1.31, 52-week range 6.38–21.17 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q2 2027): revenue of 544.1 m USD (−2.4% YoY), net income of -12.5 m USD (−209.6% YoY), diluted EPS -0.36 USD.

Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.

Market cap
305.8 m USD
shares as of 09 Sept 2026
P/E (TTM)
unavailable
Diluted EPS TTM -2.56 · TTM to 04 Aug 2026
E/P (TTM)
-29.14%
TTM to 04 Aug 2026
Dividend yield
7.06%
DPS 12m 0.62
Beta (2y)
1.31
Volatility (1y) 75%
52-week range
6.3821.17

Price history

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Technical reading

RSI (14)
62.5
strong (55–70)
Bollinger (20, 2)
6.57 – 8.64
above the upper band · %B 1.07 · band width 27.3%
SMA 50 / 200
7.60 / 11.41
mixed trend
MACD (12, 26, 9)
0.24 / 0.07
MACD above signal

Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).

Performance

CompanyS&P 500vs S&P 500Vertical median
1 month+29.9%−1.1%+31.0 pp—
3 months−16.0%−0.5%−15.5 pp—
6 months−18.4%+4.4%−22.8 pp—
Year to date−45.8%+12.3%−58.2 pp—
1 year−38.0%+13.5%−51.6 pp+8.3%
3 years−75.8%+76.4%−152.3 pp−16.1%
5 years−78.3%+63.7%−141.9 pp—
Max drawdown (1y)
−69.9%
21 Jan 2026 → 30 Sept 2026
Max drawdown (5y)
−90.7%
03 Apr 2024 → 30 Sept 2026
Compound annual growth (5y)
−26.3%
S&P 500 +10.4%

Price returns, dividends excluded.

Quarterly results

Latest quarter: Q2 2027 · 04 Aug 2026

Revenue
544.1 m USD
−2.4% YoY
Net income
-12.5 m USD
−209.6% YoY
Diluted EPS
-0.36
−212.5% YoY
net / operating
-2.3% / 3.6%

Quarterly margins

Quarterly statements · USD

Fiscal yearQ3 '25Q4 '25Q1 '26Q2 '26Q3 '26Q4 '26Q1 '27Q2 '27
Revenue453.0 m534.5 m567.7 m557.4 m448.2 m529.6 m559.2 m544.1 m
Cost of revenue67.8 m77.5 m82.1 m76.4 m63.5 m78.2 m79.8 m83.2 m
Operating income6.3 m44.1 m63.2 m53.0 m-16.2 m-13.9 m46.9 m19.4 m
Depreciation & amortisation53.9 m64.0 m63.2 m65.2 m63.0 m88.0 m70.9 m73.7 m
Interest expense32.9 m35.4 m36.8 m38.7 m40.2 m38.3 m36.9 m38.0 m
Pre-tax income-41.8 m8.7 m26.4 m14.3 m-56.4 m-52.2 m10.0 m-18.6 m
Income tax-9.1 m-600.0 k4.7 m2.9 m-14.3 m-12.5 m4.3 m-6.1 m
Net income-32.7 m9.3 m21.7 m11.4 m-42.1 m-39.7 m5.7 m-12.5 m
Diluted EPS-0.840.24 ≈0.620.32-1.22-1.14 ≈0.16-0.36
Operating cash flow-7.2 m ≈108.9 m95.8 m34.0 m ≈58.0 m ≈103.0 m113.8 m46.8 m ≈
Capex131.2 m ≈169.9 m154.6 m89.2 m ≈78.6 m ≈69.0 m105.3 m84.7 m ≈
Share repurchases28.0 m ≈83.9 m23.9 m0 ≈0 ≈000 ≈

≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)

E/P over time

E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.

Fiscal years

Fiscal year201920202021⚠ 20222023202420252026
Revenue1.3 bn1.4 bn436.5 m1.3 bn2.0 bn2.2 bn2.1 bn2.1 bn
Revenue YoY+11.0%+7.1%−67.8%—+50.6%+12.3%−3.3%−1.4%
Net income117.2 m100.3 m-207.0 m108.7 m137.1 m126.9 m58.3 m-48.7 m
Net income YoY−3.1%−14.5%−306.4%—+26.1%−7.4%−54.1%−183.5%
Diluted EPS2.932.94-4.752.212.792.881.46-1.40
Diluted EPS YoY+3.2%+0.3%−261.6%—+26.2%+3.2%−49.3%−195.9%
net %9.3%7.4%-47.4%8.3%7.0%5.8%2.7%-2.3%
Free cash flow121.3 m60.9 m-132.2 m191.0 m210.2 m34.0 m-217.9 m-100.6 m

The series breaks before 2022: earlier years come from the original reports of the issuer of that time, later years from a subsequent filing that restated the perimeter (a separation, discontinued operations). The year-on-year change across the break is not shown.

Reported results vs expectations

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Balance sheet & financial health

Fiscal year 2026 · 03 Feb 2026

Cash
16.6 m USD
Financial debt
1.5 bn USD
Net debt
1.5 bn USD
Equity
91.2 m USD
Total assets
4.1 bn USD
Debt / equity
16.69x
Current ratio
0.29x
ROE
-41.1%
ROA
-1.2%
FCF margin
-4.8%

Financial statements (source on every figure)

Revenue and net income (USD)

Margins

Income statement · USD

Revenue
2024
2.2 bn
2025
2.1 bn
2026
2.1 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 31 Mar 2026verified

Cost of revenue
2024
353.0 m
2025
314.4 m
2026
300.3 m

SEC (XBRL)· 31 Mar 2026verified

Gross profit
2024
1.9 bn ≈
2025
1.8 bn ≈
2026
1.8 bn ≈

SEC (XBRL)· 31 Mar 2026derived

Operating income
2024
306.6 m
2025
220.4 m
2026
86.1 m

SEC (XBRL)· 31 Mar 2026verified

Depreciation & amortisation
2024
208.5 m
2025
238.2 m
2026
279.4 m

SEC (XBRL)· 31 Mar 2026verified

EBITDA
2024
515.1 m ≈
2025
458.6 m ≈
2026
365.5 m ≈

SEC (XBRL)· 31 Mar 2026derived

Interest expense
2024
127.4 m
2025
135.3 m
2026
154.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 31 Mar 2026verified

Pre-tax income
2024
163.1 m
2025
69.9 m
2026
-67.9 m

SEC (XBRL)· 31 Mar 2026verified

Income tax
2024
36.2 m
2025
11.6 m
2026
-19.2 m

SEC (XBRL)· 31 Mar 2026verified

Net income
2024
126.9 m
2025
58.3 m
2026
-48.7 m

SEC (XBRL)· 31 Mar 2026verified

Diluted EPS
2024
2.88
2025
1.46
2026
-1.40

SEC (XBRL)· 31 Mar 2026verified

Weighted average diluted shares
2024
44.1 m
2025
40.0 m
2026
34.7 m

SEC (XBRL)· 31 Mar 2026verified

Balance sheet · USD

Cash
2024
37.3 m
2025
6.9 m
2026
16.6 m

SEC (XBRL)· 31 Mar 2026verified

Inventories
2024
37.2 m
2025
39.8 m
2026
39.9 m

SEC (XBRL)· 31 Mar 2026verified

Current assets
2024
137.5 m
2025
94.4 m
2026
124.1 m

SEC (XBRL)· 31 Mar 2026verified

Property, plant & equipment, net
2024
1.3 bn
2025
1.6 bn
2026
1.7 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 31 Mar 2026verified

Goodwill
2024
742.5 m
2025
742.6 m
2026
742.6 m

SEC (XBRL)· 31 Mar 2026verified

Total assets
2024
3.8 bn
2025
4.0 bn
2026
4.1 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 31 Mar 2026verified

Accounts payable
2024
118.6 m
2025
134.4 m
2026
125.5 m

SEC (XBRL)· 31 Mar 2026verified

Short-term debt
2024
9.0 m
2025
7.0 m
2026
7.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 31 Mar 2026verified

Long-term debt
2024
1.3 bn
2025
1.5 bn
2026
1.5 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 31 Mar 2026verified

Current liabilities
2024
435.6 m
2025
433.9 m
2026
434.6 m

SEC (XBRL)· 31 Mar 2026verified

Equity
2024
251.2 m †
2025
145.8 m †
2026
91.2 m †

SEC (XBRL)· 31 Mar 2026verified

Cash flow · USD

Operating cash flow
2024
364.2 m
2025
312.3 m
2026
290.8 m

SEC (XBRL)· 31 Mar 2026verified

Capex
2024
330.2 m
2025
530.2 m
2026
391.4 m

SEC (XBRL)· 31 Mar 2026verified

Free cash flow
2024
34.0 m ≈
2025
-217.9 m ≈
2026
-100.6 m ≈

SEC (XBRL)· 31 Mar 2026derived

Investing cash flow
2024
-329.1 m
2025
-529.8 m
2026
-386.9 m

SEC (XBRL)· 31 Mar 2026verified

Financing cash flow
2024
-179.4 m
2025
187.1 m
2026
105.8 m

SEC (XBRL)· 31 Mar 2026verified

Dividends paid
2024
—
2025
—
2026
—

SEC (XBRL)· 28 Mar 2023verified

Share repurchases
2024
300.0 m
2025
171.9 m
2026
23.9 m

SEC (XBRL)· 31 Mar 2026verified

Computed indicators

Growth

Revenue growth (YoY)
-1.4%
computed by olivLawFY 2026
Revenue CAGR 3Y
2.3%
computed by olivLawFY 2023 → FY 2026
Revenue CAGR 5Y
36.9%
computed by olivLawFY 2021 → FY 2026
EBIT growth (YoY)
-60.9%
computed by olivLawFY 2026
Net income growth (YoY)
-183.5%
computed by olivLawFY 2026
Net income CAGR 3Y
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
Net income CAGR 5Y
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
EPS growth (YoY)
-195.9%
computed by olivLawFY 2026
EPS CAGR 3Y
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
EPS CAGR 5Y
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
FCF growth (YoY)
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive

Profitability

Gross margin
85.4%
computed by olivLawTTM to 04 Aug 2026
EBITDA margin
15.9%
computed by olivLawTTM to 04 Aug 2026
EBIT margin
1.7%
computed by olivLawTTM to 04 Aug 2026
Net margin
-4.3%
computed by olivLawTTM to 04 Aug 2026
FCF margin
-0.8%
computed by olivLawTTM to 04 Aug 2026

Returns

ROE
-69.7%
computed by olivLawTTM to 04 Aug 2026 · balance sheet at 04 Aug 2026
ROA
-2.2%
computed by olivLawTTM to 04 Aug 2026 · balance sheet at 04 Aug 2026
ROIC
1.8%
computed by olivLawTTM to 04 Aug 2026 · balance sheet at 04 Aug 2026
ROCE
1.0%
computed by olivLawTTM to 04 Aug 2026 · balance sheet at 04 Aug 2026
Payout ratio (EPS)
unavailable
input data missing
Payout ratio (FCF)
unavailable
input data missing

Balance sheet

Net debt
1.5 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 04 Aug 2026
Net debt / EBITDA
4.5x
computed by olivLawTTM to 04 Aug 2026 · balance sheet at 04 Aug 2026
Debt / equity
17.2x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 04 Aug 2026
Interest coverage
0.2x
computed by olivLawTTM to 04 Aug 2026

Liquidity

Current ratio
0.3x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 04 Aug 2026
Quick ratio
0.2x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 04 Aug 2026
Cash ratio
0.0x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 04 Aug 2026

Cash

Operating cash flow
321.6 m USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 04 Aug 2026
Capital expenditure
337.6 m USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 04 Aug 2026
Free cash flow
-16.0 m USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 04 Aug 2026
FCF conversion
unavailable
insufficient data
Cash conversion
96.9%
computed by olivLawTTM to 04 Aug 2026

Efficiency

Days sales outstanding
unavailable
input data missing
Days inventory outstanding
47 days
computed by olivLawTTM to 04 Aug 2026 · balance sheet at 04 Aug 2026
Days payables outstanding
110 days
computed by olivLawTTM to 04 Aug 2026 · balance sheet at 04 Aug 2026
Cash conversion cycle
unavailable
input data missing

Market and valuation

Market capitalisation
305.8 m USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 04 Aug 2026
Enterprise value
1.8 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 04 Aug 2026
Market cap / net income TTM
unavailable
insufficient data
P/E (TTM)
unavailable
insufficient data
Earnings yield
-29.1%
computed by olivLawTTM to 04 Aug 2026
P/B
3.5x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 04 Aug 2026
P/S
0.1x
computed by olivLawTTM to 04 Aug 2026 · balance sheet at 04 Aug 2026
EV/EBITDA
5.4x
computed by olivLawTTM to 04 Aug 2026 · balance sheet at 04 Aug 2026
EV/EBIT
49.6x
computed by olivLawTTM to 04 Aug 2026 · balance sheet at 04 Aug 2026
EV/Sales
0.9x
computed by olivLawTTM to 04 Aug 2026 · balance sheet at 04 Aug 2026
P/FCF
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
FCF yield
-5.2%
computed by olivLawTTM to 04 Aug 2026 · balance sheet at 04 Aug 2026
Dividend yield
7.1%
computed by olivLawTTM to 04 Aug 2026
Shareholder yield (distributions)
0.0%
computed by olivLawTTM to 04 Aug 2026 · balance sheet at 04 Aug 2026

1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.

Valuation

olivLaw classification

Unattractive profile

Score: 25 / 100

A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.

score < 40

Closing price

8.78 USD

04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series

Market cap: 305.8 m USD

Key indicators

Market capitalisation
305.8 m USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 04 Aug 2026
P/E (TTM)
unavailable
insufficient data
P/B
3.5x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 04 Aug 2026
EV/EBITDA
5.4x
computed by olivLawTTM to 04 Aug 2026 · balance sheet at 04 Aug 2026
ROE
-69.7%
computed by olivLawTTM to 04 Aug 2026 · balance sheet at 04 Aug 2026
Net margin
-4.3%
computed by olivLawTTM to 04 Aug 2026
Revenue growth (YoY)
-1.4%
computed by olivLawFY 2026
Dividend yield
7.1%
computed by olivLawTTM to 04 Aug 2026

Coverage and freshness

30/37 reporting lines present
Latest full fiscal year: 2026
Latest reported period: 04 Aug 2026
Latest balance sheet date: 04 Aug 2026
Share count (cover of the latest filing), as of: 09 Sept 2026
Source: SEC (XBRL)published 14 Sept 2026
verified 1821derived 129

Score by group

  • Valuation53
  • Returns0
  • Quality24
  • Balance sheet11
  • Growth19

Estimated value range

Low
27.87
USD per share
Mid
54.73
USD per share
High
114.07
USD per share
Price: 8.78 USD
The price is below the range
Potential to the central value: 523.3% (value / price − 1)
Margin of safety: 84.0% (1 − price / value)
Agreement between methods: medium · 3 methods used · 3 independent bases

The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 8.15 – 141.65 USD.

Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.

Method ranges (USD per share)

— — Mid · ▏ Price

Valuation methods

  • DCF (discounted cash flow)27.87 – 141.65 (Mid 58.61)
    WACC 5.8% · starting FCFF 112.9 m USD · terminal value share of EV 86%
    The WACC × g sensitivity gives the method's bounds; these are not probabilities.
    Reverse DCF: starting growth implied by the price (fading linearly to terminal growth, everything else fixed): -23.5%
  • Peers: EV/EBITDA28.38 – 114.07 (Mid 54.73)
    21 companies used · median multiple 10.2x · quartiles 7.5x – 16.5x
    ARCO, ARMK, BJRI, BLMN, CAKE, CBRL, DRI, FWRG, LOCO, MCD, NDLS, PTLO, PZZA, QSR, RICK, RRGB, STKS, TXRH, WING, YUM, YUMC
  • Peers: P/Eunavailable · the base of the ratio is not positive
  • Dividend discount (DDM)8.15 – 10.96 (Mid 9.35)
Multiple comparisons use the SIC vertical: Retail-Eating Places (SIC 5812)

Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.

Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)

Risk-free rate
4.3%
Equity risk premium
5.0%
Beta (default)
1.00
Cost of equity
9.3%
Terminal growth
2.5%

Factor scorecard

Unattractive profile · Score 25/100

FactorValueScoreWeight used
ROIC · Quality1.8%26 (vs peers)15%
Net margin · Quality-4.3%21 (vs peers)9%
FCF conversion · Qualityunavailableunavailable—
Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth2.3%19 (on a fixed band)12%
EPS CAGR 3Y · Growthunavailableunavailable—
Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet4.5x23 (vs peers)15%
Interest coverage · Balance sheet0.2x0 (on a fixed band)9%
Current ratio · Balance sheet0.3x0 (on a fixed band)6%
P/E (TTM) · Valuationunavailableunavailable—
EV/EBITDA · Valuation5.4x95 (vs peers)15%
FCF yield · Valuation-5.2%0 (on a fixed band)12%
Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns0.0%0 (on a fixed band)9%
Payout ratio (FCF) · Returnsunavailableunavailable—

Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.

Score groups

  • Balance sheet11/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
  • Growth· partial19/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
  • Quality24/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
  • Returns· partial0/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
  • Valuation53/100 · 2/3 factors with a value

A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.

Memo

Dave & Buster’s Entertainment, Inc. (PLAY). Latest full fiscal year: 2026; data up to 2026-08-04.

Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 2.1 bn USD in 2026; YoY growth -1.4%; net margin -4.3%; ROE -69.7%; net debt/EBITDA 4.5x.

The estimated value range is 27.87–114.07 USD per share (median of 3 methods, agreement: medium); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 54.73 USD, the price of 8.78 USD leaves a potential of 523.3% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of 84.0% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.

olivLaw score 25/100, methodological classification: unattractive profile (score, margin of safety and method agreement together; not a judgement of the right price). Groups assessed only in part: growth, returns. Not investment advice.

Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.

What supports the thesis

  • EV/EBITDA: 5.4x
  • The price is below the estimated value range

What contradicts it

  • ROIC: 1.8%
  • Net margin: -4.3%
  • Revenue CAGR 3Y: 2.3%
  • Net debt / EBITDA: 4.5x
  • Interest coverage: 0.2x
  • Current ratio: 0.3x
  • FCF yield: -5.2%
  • Shareholder yield (distributions): 0.0%

Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): FCF conversion, EPS CAGR 3Y, P/E (TTM), Payout ratio (FCF).

Versus the vertical median

Retail-Eating Places (SIC 5812) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 39 companies

Multiples and returns vs the median

P/E
—
vertical median 29.8x
EV/EBITDA
5.4x
vertical median 10.6x
below median (−48.9%)
P/S
0.1x
vertical median 0.8x
below median (−81.9%)
P/B
3.5x
vertical median 3.3x
above median (+5.2%)
ROE
-69.7%
vertical median 6.9%
below median (−1,107.8%)
Net margin
-4.3%
vertical median 1.9%
below median (−329.8%)
EBIT margin
1.7%
vertical median 2.7%
below median (−36.5%)
Revenue YoY
-1.4%
vertical median 4.5%
below median (−131.1%)
Net debt/EBITDA
4.5x
vertical median 2.7x
above median (+66.7%)
Dividend yield
7.1%
vertical median 1.9%
above median (+267.9%)

Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)

Companies in the vertical

Market capP/EROENet marginRevenue YoY1A / 3A
MCDMcDONALD’S CORPORATION198.3 bn0.0—31.7%+3.7%−10% / −1%
YUMYum! Brands, Inc.45.4 bn20.9—25.4%+8.8%+9% / +32%
CMGChipotle Mexican Grill, Inc.44.5 bn32.948.5%10.8%+5.4%+2% / −20%
DRIDarden Restaurants, Inc.26.1 bn22.555.1%8.8%+9.4%+28% / +47%
QSRRestaurant Brands International Inc.24.8 bn18.253.8%20.1%+12.2%+8% / +10%
YUMCYum China Holdings, Inc.17.0 bn18.317.5%7.8%+4.4%+3% / +15%
ARMKAramark13.8 bn36.711.8%1.9%+6.4%+41% / +87%
TXRHTexas Roadhouse, Inc.12.9 bn31.328.1%6.8%+9.4%+12% / +75%
EATBrinker International, Inc.9.2 bn19.4134.7%8.4%+7.9%+43% / +512%
CAVACAVA Group, Inc.7.2 bn109.38.3%4.8%+22.4%+27% / +82%
HDLSuper Hi International Holding Ltd.6.4 bn247.56.9%2.8%+13.4%−46% / unavailable
CAKEThe Cheesecake Factory Incorporated5.8 bn27.441.6%5.2%+4.7%+142% / +268%
WINGWingstop Inc.4.5 bn39.3—16.0%+11.4%−37% / −30%
CBRLCracker Barrel Old Country Store, Inc.1.6 bn50.26.7%1.0%−4.7%+143% / +5%
ARCOArcos Dorados Holdings Inc.1.5 bn7.033.2%4.5%+4.7%−7% / −39%
BJRIBj’s Restaurants, Inc.1.3 bn33.010.4%2.9%+3.1%+61% / +106%
SGSweetgreen, Inc.1.1 bn117.93.1%2.0%+0.4%+82% / +25%
BLMNBloomin’ Brands, Inc.939.3 m35.16.7%0.7%+0.1%+55% / −53%
FWRGFirst Watch Restaurant Group, Inc.833.3 m42.13.1%1.5%+20.3%−27% / −25%
PZZAPapa John’s International, Inc.658.1 m25.1—1.4%−0.3%−52% / −69%
LOCOEl Pollo Loco Holdings, Inc.501.2 m14.111.8%7.0%+3.6%+51% / +98%
DINDine Brands Global, Inc.448.6 m106.7—0.4%+8.2%+17% / −16%
PTLOPortillo's Inc.336.8 m29.83.0%1.9%+3.0%+4% / −65%
PLAYDave & Buster’s Entertainment, Inc.305.8 m—-69.7%-4.3%−1.4%−38% / −76%
JACKJack In The Box Inc.275.6 m8.2—2.4%−6.7%−27% / −80%

1- and 3-year price returns: for PLAY from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.

olivLaw engine forecast

The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.

The engine has no published run for this company yet.

Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)

Illustrative scenarios

Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.

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Estimated price (USD)

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What moves the 3-year price the most

    AI analysis

    AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

    In brief

    Dave & Buster's Entertainment, Inc. (PLAY) owns and operates venues that combine entertainment and dining under the Dave & Buster's and Main Event brands, with revenue of 2102.8 million USD in fiscal 2025 1. The current context is declining comparable store sales and profitability under pressure, while the company tries to resume growth through its Back-to-Basics strategy 3.

    SWOT

    Strengths

    • The Dave & Buster's and Main Event brands have high national recognition and broad appeal among families and young adults 1.
    • Entertainment carries low variable costs and a very high gross margin, which makes the business model less exposed to food costs 1.
    • The large store network and the remodelling programme provide a solid operating base and a way to refresh the offer 13.

    Weaknesses

    • Comparable store sales and profitability declined in fiscal 2025 and in the second quarter of fiscal 2026, and the company reported net losses 13.
    • Debt is substantial, and long-term non-cancellable lease obligations limit financial flexibility 1.
    • Operating margin has been compressed by personnel costs and other store operating expenses 12.

    Opportunities

    • International expansion through franchising, with planned locations in several countries, could add revenue without large direct investment 13.
    • Growth in food, beverage and special events sales could offset pressure on entertainment revenue 3.
    • Remodels and new games could draw customers back to existing venues if the July trend holds 13.

    Threats

    • Consumer discretionary spending is sensitive to the economy, and a drop in confidence or income could reduce store traffic 1.
    • The legalisation of casino gambling and online sports betting in nearby areas could weigh on demand 1.
    • Competition from home entertainment and restaurants may limit pricing and volumes 1.

    Risks

    • Sensitivity to discretionary spendinghigh

      A fall in consumer confidence or disposable income could reduce visitor numbers and the average amount spent per visit 1.

    • Debt and lease obligationshigh

      Significant debt and leases that cannot be easily cancelled could limit the company's ability to fund growth if cash flow weakens 1.

    • Brand reputationmedium

      Negative publicity about food quality, safety or incidents in a store could affect the whole network 1.

    • Technology and consumer behaviourmedium

      Technological change, including artificial intelligence, and new consumer preferences could weaken the appeal of the in-store experience 1.

    • Labour costsmedium

      Minimum wage increases and competition for staff could raise personnel costs if they cannot be offset through prices 12.

    Investment thesis

    What would need to be true (bull case)

    • If comparable store sales keep improving after the second quarter, the company could gradually recover revenue and operating margin 3.
    • The entertainment model, with a very high gross margin, could generate enough cash to reduce debt and fund remodels and new openings 13.
    • International franchise expansion could add revenue with lower capital outlay than company-operated stores 13.

    What would break the thesis

    • The decline in comparable store sales and the reported net losses could show that demand and cost problems run deeper than management expects 13.
    • High debt and long-term lease obligations could limit flexibility in a difficult economic period 1.
    • Competition and changing consumer behaviour could reduce the appeal of the venues if remodels do not deliver the expected results 1.

    What to watch

    • Development of comparable store sales in the third quarter of fiscal 2026Q3 2026
    • Adjusted EBITDA margin and the effect of cost-reduction programmesQ3 2026
    • Number of remodels completed and performance of remodelled stores2026
    • Number of franchise stores opened outside the US and the level of debtnext 10-K

    Products, market & competition

    AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

    The business

    The company owns and operates high-volume venues in North America that offer entertainment and dining for adults and families 1. As of February 3, 2026, the network included 179 Dave & Buster's stores and 64 Main Event stores, and by the end of the second quarter of fiscal 2026 the total number of company-operated stores had reached 250 13. The company also acts as an international franchisor, with six Dave & Buster's franchise stores open at the reporting date 3.

    The business model rests on arcade games, bowling, laser tag, virtual reality, televised sports and a food and beverage offer, all in one place 1. Entertainment revenue made up most of total revenue, and its gross margin, supported by low variable costs, underpins the store economics 1. The company reinvests operating cash flow in stores, debt repayment, share repurchases or dividends 1.

    The long-term strategy combines growth in comparable store sales, opening new US stores, remodelling existing ones and international expansion through franchising 1. In fiscal 2025 the company opened eight Dave & Buster's and three Main Event stores, and in the first half of fiscal 2026 it opened seven more new stores, five Dave & Buster's and two Main Event 12.

    Segments

    Entertainment

    Entertainment revenue, which includes arcade games, virtual reality, bowling and other attractions, accounted for 62.9% of total revenue in fiscal 2025 and had a gross margin of 91.9% 1. In the second quarter of fiscal 2026 entertainment revenue fell to 332.6 million USD from 364.5 million USD a year earlier 3.

    Special events

    Special events, including group hosting and ticketed experiences, are a growth channel the company tracks explicitly 13. Management reported continued growth in this segment in the first half of fiscal 2026 3.

    Market context

    The out-of-home entertainment market is highly competitive and depends on consumer discretionary spending, which can be hit by economic conditions, inflation and consumer confidence 1. The company cites fuel prices, minimum wage increases and supplier price pressure as factors 1.

    Comparable store sales have declined in the last two reports, pointing to weaker demand in existing venues 13. Seasonality matters: spring and year-end holidays usually bring higher revenue, while the third quarter, the back-to-school season, is typically the weakest 1.

    Trends

    • Recovery in comparable salesmixed

      Management says comparable store sales improved in July and that the trend continued into the third quarter to date, which could point to stabilisation if the pace holds 3. A 2.9% decline remains in the second quarter 3.

    • Remodels and store modernisationtailwind

      The company has completed Dave & Buster's remodels and says remodelled stores outperform the system, which could support sales growth over the medium term 13.

    • Labour and lease costsheadwind

      Payroll and other store operating costs have grown as a share of revenue, compressing operating margin 12. Most stores are leased, and the leases include annual rent escalators, which adds fixed cost pressure 1.

    • Debt and liquiditymixed

      Total debt remains high, and interest and principal payments limit free cash flow, although available liquidity stood at 492.1 million USD at the end of the second quarter 13. Adjusted free cash flow was positive in the first half of fiscal 2026 3.

    Competitive position

    The company competes for customers' discretionary income with cinemas, bowling alleys, arcades, nightclubs, restaurants and theme parks, as well as with home entertainment such as video games and streaming 1. Some of these businesses are larger with greater financial resources, and the legalisation of casino gambling or online sports betting in nearby areas could hurt the company 1.

    Competition also comes from local and regional restaurants offering similar experiences at competitive prices 1. The company differentiates itself by combining games, sports viewing and food in one space, which it says cannot be easily replicated at home or without visiting several destinations 1.

    • Cinemas and family entertainment centres

      Compete for the same discretionary spending of families and young adults, as cited in the company's competitive risks 1.

    • Restaurants with entertainment offers

      Compete on price, service quality and type of food, which the company names as direct pressure on its food and beverage segment 1.

    • Local arcades and bowling centres

      Local operators offering similar games and activities, often with fewer resources but a dispersed presence 1.

    • In-home entertainment, video games and streaming

      Forms of home entertainment that the company describes as an increasingly sophisticated competitive force 1.

    News & filings

    In the press

    The latest news item in our archive is from 15 Sept 2026; the newest SEC filing is from 21 Sept 2026. The press archive comes from the RSS feeds we follow and does not necessarily cover the latest event — the filings alongside do.

    SEC filings

    Sources

    1. [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2026-02-03 · SEC / Dave & Buster's Entertainment, Inc. · 31 Mar 2026
    2. [2] Form 10-Q, quarter ended 2026-08-04 · SEC / Dave & Buster's Entertainment, Inc. · 14 Sept 2026
    3. [3] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / Dave & Buster's Entertainment, Inc. · 14 Sept 2026

    Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.