olivLaw · US equity research
Aramark ARMK
Retail-Eating Places · SIC 5812 · Vertical: Retail-Eating Places (SIC 5812)
Aramark is one of the largest global providers of food and facilities services, with clients in education, healthcare, business and industry, sports and corrections. With revenue of 18.5 billion USD in fiscal 2025 and accelerating organic growth in 2026, the company holds an important position, and its expansion into AI data center hospitality under the Aramark Nexus name draws attention.
At the close of 04 Nov 2026, Aramark (ARMK) stock was 52.33 USD (−4.18% on the day), with market capitalisation 13.8 bn USD, P/E 36.7 on diluted EPS of 1.43 USD over the last 12 months, dividend yield 0.89%, beta 0.82, 52-week range 36.04–62.39 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q3 2026): revenue of 5.1 bn USD (+9.3% YoY), net income of 97.7 m USD (+36.0% YoY), diluted EPS 0.36 USD.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
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Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 37.6
- weak (30–45)
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 52.51 – 56.92
- below the lower band · %B -0.04 · band width 8.1%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 55.78 / 50.31
- mixed trend
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- -0.50 / -0.41
- MACD below signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | S&P 500 | vs S&P 500 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | −5.3% | −1.1% | −4.2 pp | — |
| 3 months | −8.0% | −0.5% | −7.5 pp | — |
| 6 months | +14.3% | +4.4% | +9.9 pp | — |
| Year to date | +42.0% | +12.3% | +29.7 pp | — |
| 1 year | +38.8% | +13.5% | +25.3 pp | +3.2% |
| 3 years | +84.6% | +76.4% | +8.2 pp | −18.1% |
| 5 years | +84.6% | +63.7% | +20.9 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
Latest quarter: Q3 2026 · 03 Jul 2026
Quarterly margins
Quarterly statements · USD
| Fiscal year | Q4 '24 | Q1 '25 | Q2 '25 | Q3 '25 | Q4 '25 | Q1 '26 | Q2 '26 | Q3 '26 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 4.4 bn | 4.6 bn | 4.3 bn | 4.6 bn | 5.0 bn | 4.8 bn | 4.9 bn | 5.1 bn |
| Cost of revenue | 4.0 bn | 4.2 bn | 3.9 bn | 4.3 bn | 4.6 bn | 4.4 bn | 4.5 bn | 4.6 bn |
| SG&A | 65.5 m | 70.4 m | 68.4 m | 65.7 m | 73.9 m | 72.7 m | 74.5 m | 78.6 m |
| Operating income | 218.8 m | 217.3 m | 174.2 m | 182.6 m | 217.8 m | 217.5 m | 219.7 m | 215.6 m |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 112.8 m | 113.2 m | 117.1 m | 121.8 m | 124.3 m | 126.0 m | 132.2 m | 136.1 m |
| Interest expense | 106.8 m | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Pre-tax income | 159.6 m | 141.5 m | 84.5 m | 96.2 m | 108.3 m | 135.6 m | 137.5 m | 135.7 m |
| Income tax | 37.3 m | 35.8 m | 22.5 m | 24.2 m | 21.1 m | 39.1 m | 35.4 m | 37.9 m |
| Net income | 122.4 m | 105.6 m | 61.9 m | 71.8 m | 87.1 m | 96.2 m | 102.0 m | 97.7 m |
| Diluted EPS | 0.46 ≈ | 0.39 | 0.23 | 0.27 | 0.33 ≈ | 0.36 | 0.38 | 0.36 |
| Operating cash flow | — | -587.2 m | 255.9 m ≈ | 76.7 m ≈ | — | -782.2 m | 400.3 m ≈ | 117.2 m ≈ |
| Capex | 139.3 m | 119.9 m | 115.8 m ≈ | 111.4 m ≈ | 142.2 m | 122.2 m | 101.3 m ≈ | 112.4 m ≈ |
| Dividends paid | 25.0 m | 27.9 m | 27.8 m ≈ | 27.5 m ≈ | 27.6 m | 31.5 m | 31.5 m ≈ | 31.6 m ≈ |
| Share repurchases | 14.4 m | 28.6 m | 80.7 m ≈ | 30.9 m ≈ | 29.7 m | 41.3 m | 25.1 m ≈ | 913.0 k ≈ |
≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Today's P/E sits at the 88 percentile of its own 33-quarter history (min 9.8, median 23.1, max 192.0; quarters with earnings only).
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 15.8 bn | 16.2 bn | 12.8 bn | 12.1 bn | 13.7 bn | 16.1 bn | 17.4 bn | 18.5 bn |
| Revenue YoY | +8.1% | +2.8% | −20.9% | −5.7% | +13.2% | +17.5% | +8.2% | +6.4% |
| Net income | 567.9 m | 448.5 m | -461.5 m | -90.8 m | 194.5 m | 674.1 m | 262.5 m | 326.4 m |
| Net income YoY | +51.9% | −21.0% | −202.9% | unavailable | unavailable | +246.6% | −61.1% | +24.3% |
| Diluted EPS | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | -0.36 | 0.75 | 2.57 | 0.99 | 1.22 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | +242.7% | −61.5% | +23.2% |
| net % | 3.6% | 2.8% | -3.6% | -0.8% | 1.4% | 4.2% | 1.5% | 1.8% |
| Free cash flow | 423.3 m | 481.1 m | -241.8 m | 249.3 m | 382.6 m | 382.9 m | unavailable | unavailable |
Reported results vs expectations
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Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2025 · 03 Oct 2025
- Cash
- 639.1 m USD
- Financial debt
- 31.5 m USD
- Net debt
- -607.6 m USD
- Equity
- 3.1 bn USD
- Total assets
- 13.3 bn USD
- Debt / equity
- 0.01x
- Current ratio
- 0.99x
- ROE
- 10.6%
- ROA
- 2.5%
- FCF margin
- unavailable
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (USD)
Margins
Income statement · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 12.8 bn | 12.1 bn | 13.7 bn | 16.1 bn | 17.4 bn | 18.5 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Nov 2025verified |
| Cost of revenue | 12.0 bn | 11.0 bn | 14.8 bn | 14.8 bn | 16.0 bn | 17.0 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Nov 2025verified |
| Gross profit | 835.9 m ≈ | 1.1 bn ≈ | -1.1 bn ≈ | 1.3 bn ≈ | 1.4 bn ≈ | 1.5 bn ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Nov 2025derived |
| SG&A | 307.0 m | 346.7 m | 258.4 m | 273.7 m | 283.6 m | 278.4 m | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Nov 2025verified |
| Operating income | -264.9 m | 191.4 m | 415.4 m | 625.0 m | 706.5 m | 791.8 m | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Nov 2025verified |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 595.2 m | 550.7 m | 398.0 m | 409.9 m | 435.5 m | 476.3 m | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Nov 2025verified |
| EBITDA | 330.3 m ≈ | 742.1 m ≈ | 813.4 m ≈ | 1.0 bn ≈ | 1.1 bn ≈ | 1.3 bn ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Nov 2025derived |
| Interest expense | 389.4 m | 413.7 m | 381.5 m | 441.3 m | 389.2 m | 364.4 m | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Nov 2025verified |
| Pre-tax income | -647.7 m | -132.9 m | 47.2 m | 563.5 m | 364.9 m | 430.5 m | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Nov 2025verified |
| Income tax | -186.3 m | -40.6 m | 8.4 m | 116.4 m | 103.0 m | 103.6 m | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Nov 2025verified |
| Net income | -461.5 m | -90.8 m | 194.5 m | 674.1 m | 262.5 m | 326.4 m | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Nov 2025verified |
| Diluted EPS | — | -0.36 | 0.75 | 2.57 | 0.99 | 1.22 | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Nov 2025verified |
| Weighted average diluted shares | 251.8 m | 254.7 m | 259.1 m | 262.6 m | 266.2 m | 267.3 m | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Nov 2025verified |
| Dividend per share | 0.44 | 0.44 | 0.44 | 0.44 | 0.38 | 0.42 | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Nov 2025verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Revenue − Cost of revenue; Operating income + Depreciation & amortisation.
Balance sheet · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 2.5 bn | 532.6 m | 305.7 m | 1.9 bn | 672.5 m | 639.1 m | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Nov 2025verified |
| Inventories | 436.5 m | 412.7 m | 552.4 m | 403.7 m | 387.6 m | 418.8 m | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Nov 2025verified |
| Current assets | 4.7 bn | 2.9 bn | 3.3 bn | 5.2 bn | 3.4 bn | 3.5 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Nov 2025verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | 2.1 bn | 2.0 bn | 2.0 bn | 1.4 bn | 1.6 bn | 1.7 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Nov 2025verified |
| Goodwill | 5.3 bn | 5.5 bn | 5.5 bn | 4.6 bn | 4.7 bn | 4.9 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Nov 2025verified |
| Intangibles (excl. goodwill) | 1.9 bn | 2.0 bn | 2.1 bn | 1.8 bn | 1.8 bn | 1.9 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Nov 2025verified |
| Total assets | 15.7 bn | 14.4 bn | 15.1 bn | 16.9 bn | 12.7 bn | 13.3 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Nov 2025verified |
| Accounts payable | 663.5 m | 919.1 m | 1.3 bn | 1.3 bn | 1.4 bn | 1.5 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Nov 2025verified |
| Short-term debt | 99.9 m | 58.9 m | 65.0 m | 1.6 bn | 964.3 m | 31.5 m | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Nov 2025verified |
| Current liabilities | 2.3 bn | 2.9 bn | 3.3 bn | 5.0 bn | 4.2 bn | 3.5 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Nov 2025verified |
| Equity | 2.7 bn | 2.7 bn | 3.0 bn | 3.7 bn † | 3.0 bn † | 3.1 bn † | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Nov 2025verified |
† equity attributable to the parent's shareholders: in these years the issuer no longer reports the total including non-controlling interests.
Cash flow · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | 176.7 m | 657.1 m | 694.5 m | 766.4 m | — | — | SEC (XBRL)· 21 Nov 2023verified |
| Capex | 418.5 m | 407.8 m | 311.9 m | 383.5 m | 427.4 m | 489.2 m | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Nov 2025verified |
| Free cash flow | -241.8 m ≈ | 249.3 m ≈ | 382.6 m ≈ | 382.9 m ≈ | — | — | SEC (XBRL)· 21 Nov 2023derived |
| Investing cash flow | -361.1 m | -634.4 m | -831.3 m | 208.9 m | — | — | SEC (XBRL)· 21 Nov 2023verified |
| Financing cash flow | 2.4 bn | -2.0 bn | -37.7 m | 653.6 m | — | — | SEC (XBRL)· 21 Nov 2023verified |
| Dividends paid | 110.9 m | 112.0 m | 113.1 m | 114.6 m | 99.9 m | 110.8 m | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Nov 2025verified |
| Share repurchases | 6.5 m | 0 | 0 | 23.7 m | 14.4 m | 169.8 m | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Nov 2025verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating cash flow − Capex.
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
Score: 61 / 100
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 13.8 bn USD
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
- Valuation41
- Balance sheet60
- Quality69
- Growth94
- Returns23
Estimated value range
The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 5.52 – 88.55 USD.
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Method ranges (USD per share)
— — Mid · ▏ Price
Valuation methods
- DCF (discounted cash flow)unavailable · the input exists, but its latest figure is far older than the latest reported period: not used
- Peers: EV/EBITDA39.46 – 88.55 (Mid 54.15)21 companies used · median multiple 9.9x · quartiles 7.2x – 16.5xARCO, BDL, BLMN, CAKE, CBRL, DRI, FWRG, GTIM, LOCO, MCD, NATH, NDLS, PLAY, PTLO, PZZA, QSR, STKS, TXRH, WING, YUM, YUMC
- Peers: P/E21.49 – 44.09 (Mid 29.97)22 companies used · median multiple 21.0x · quartiles 15.1x – 30.9xARCO, BDL, BLMN, CAKE, CBRL, CMG, DRI, EAT, FWRG, GTIM, JACK, LOCO, MB, MCD, NATH, PTLO, PZZA, QSR, TXRH, WING, YUM, YUMC
- Dividend discount (DDM)5.52 – 7.42 (Mid 6.33)
Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 4.3%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 9.3%
- Terminal growth
- 2.5%
Factor scorecard
Neutral profile · Score 61/100
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | 23.3% | 79 (vs peers) | 13% |
| Net margin · Quality | 1.9% | 51 (vs peers) | 8% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | 10.6% | 88 (on a fixed band) | 10% |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | 17.6% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 10% |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | -0.3x | 95 (vs peers) | 13% |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | 2.4x | 14 (on a fixed band) | 8% |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 1.3x | 40 (on a fixed band) | 5% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | 36.7x | 27 (vs peers) | 13% |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | 9.6x | 55 (vs peers) | 13% |
| FCF yield · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | 1.6% | 23 (on a fixed band) | 8% |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet60/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
- Growth94/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
- Quality69/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
- Returns· partial23/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
- Valuation41/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
Aramark (ARMK). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2026-07-03.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 18.5 bn USD in 2025; YoY growth 6.4%; net margin 1.9%; ROE 11.8%; net debt/EBITDA -0.3x.
The estimated value range is 21.49–44.09 USD per share (median of 3 methods, agreement: low); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 29.97 USD, the price of 52.33 USD leaves a potential of -42.7% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of -74.6% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
olivLaw score 61/100, methodological classification: neutral profile (score, margin of safety and method agreement together; not a judgement of the right price). Groups assessed only in part: returns. Not investment advice.
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- ROIC: 23.3%
- Revenue CAGR 3Y: 10.6%
- EPS CAGR 3Y: 17.6%
- Net debt / EBITDA: -0.3x
What contradicts it
- Interest coverage: 2.4x
- P/E (TTM): 36.7x
- Shareholder yield (distributions): 1.6%
- The price is above the estimated value range
- The valuation methods diverge
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): FCF conversion, FCF yield, Payout ratio (FCF).
Versus the vertical median
Retail-Eating Places (SIC 5812) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 39 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MCDMcDONALD’S CORPORATION | 198.3 bn | 0.0 | — | 31.7% | +3.7% | −10% / −1% |
| YUMYum! Brands, Inc. | 45.4 bn | 20.9 | — | 25.4% | +8.8% | +9% / +32% |
| CMGChipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. | 44.5 bn | 32.9 | 48.5% | 10.8% | +5.4% | +2% / −20% |
| DRIDarden Restaurants, Inc. | 26.1 bn | 22.5 | 55.1% | 8.8% | +9.4% | +28% / +47% |
| QSRRestaurant Brands International Inc. | 24.8 bn | 18.2 | 53.8% | 20.1% | +12.2% | +8% / +10% |
| YUMCYum China Holdings, Inc. | 17.0 bn | 18.3 | 17.5% | 7.8% | +4.4% | +3% / +15% |
| ARMKAramark | 13.8 bn | 36.7 | 11.8% | 1.9% | +6.4% | +39% / +85% |
| TXRHTexas Roadhouse, Inc. | 12.9 bn | 31.3 | 28.1% | 6.8% | +9.4% | +12% / +75% |
| EATBrinker International, Inc. | 9.2 bn | 19.4 | 134.7% | 8.4% | +7.9% | +43% / +512% |
| CAVACAVA Group, Inc. | 7.2 bn | 109.3 | 8.3% | 4.8% | +22.4% | +27% / +82% |
| HDLSuper Hi International Holding Ltd. | 6.4 bn | 247.5 | 6.9% | 2.8% | +13.4% | −46% / unavailable |
| CAKEThe Cheesecake Factory Incorporated | 5.8 bn | 27.4 | 41.6% | 5.2% | +4.7% | +142% / +268% |
| WINGWingstop Inc. | 4.5 bn | 39.3 | — | 16.0% | +11.4% | −37% / −30% |
| CBRLCracker Barrel Old Country Store, Inc. | 1.6 bn | 50.2 | 6.7% | 1.0% | −4.7% | +143% / +5% |
| ARCOArcos Dorados Holdings Inc. | 1.5 bn | 7.0 | 33.2% | 4.5% | +4.7% | −7% / −39% |
| SGSweetgreen, Inc. | 1.1 bn | 117.9 | 3.1% | 2.0% | +0.4% | +82% / +25% |
| BLMNBloomin’ Brands, Inc. | 939.3 m | 35.1 | 6.7% | 0.7% | +0.1% | +55% / −53% |
| FWRGFirst Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. | 833.3 m | 42.1 | 3.1% | 1.5% | +20.3% | −27% / −25% |
| PZZAPapa John’s International, Inc. | 658.1 m | 25.1 | — | 1.4% | −0.3% | −52% / −69% |
| LOCOEl Pollo Loco Holdings, Inc. | 501.2 m | 14.1 | 11.8% | 7.0% | +3.6% | +51% / +98% |
| DINDine Brands Global, Inc. | 448.6 m | 106.7 | — | 0.4% | +8.2% | +17% / −16% |
| NATHNathan's Famous, Inc. | 418.2 m | 21.1 | — | 11.8% | +9.4% | −4% / +56% |
| PTLOPortillo's Inc. | 336.8 m | 29.8 | 3.0% | 1.9% | +3.0% | +4% / −65% |
| PLAYDave & Buster’s Entertainment, Inc. | 305.8 m | — | -69.7% | -4.3% | −1.4% | −50% / −79% |
| JACKJack In The Box Inc. | 275.6 m | 8.2 | — | 2.4% | −6.7% | −27% / −80% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for ARMK from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (USD)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | 33.45 Total return -35% · Per year -35% | 58.97 Total return 14% · Per year 14% | 88.60 Total return 71% · Per year 71% |
| 3 years | 36.55 Total return -28% · Per year -10% | 72.10 Total return 41% · Per year 12% | 118.35 Total return 130% · Per year 32% |
| 5 years | 39.93 Total return -20% · Per year -4% | 88.16 Total return 75% · Per year 12% | 158.09 Total return 210% · Per year 25% |
- Exit P/E± 18.03
- Net margin± 12.62
- Annual revenue growth± 9.79
- Annual dilution± 1.06
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
In brief
Aramark is one of the largest global providers of food and facilities services, with clients in education, healthcare, business and industry, sports and corrections. With revenue of 18.5 billion USD in fiscal 2025 and accelerating organic growth in 2026, the company holds an important position, and its expansion into AI data center hospitality under the Aramark Nexus name draws attention.
SWOT
Strengths
- Leading position in North America and global scale, with long-standing institutional clients and high client retention.
- Diversification across sectors and geographies reduces dependence on any single client type or market.
- Ability to grow profitability through supply chain efficiencies and cost control, as recent results show.
Weaknesses
- Profit and loss contracts expose the company to cost risk, especially when prices cannot be passed on to clients.
- Dependence on large distributors, particularly one supplier for a major share of purchases.
- Seasonality of sports and campus activity creates quarterly fluctuations in earnings and cash flow.
Opportunities
- Expansion of Aramark Nexus into AI data centers could open a new segment with hyperscaler demand.
- Continued outsourcing of non-core services could generate new contracts, especially in the public sector.
- International growth, particularly in Spain, Canada and the United Kingdom, could continue if the current client base expands.
Threats
- Competitive pressure may lead to contracts won at lower margins or to losing clients to larger competitors.
- Clients that choose to self-operate or reduce outsourcing could shrink the contract pipeline.
- Geopolitical instability, tariffs and currency volatility can affect costs and results in international markets.
Risks
- Client retentionhigh
Losing major contracts or renewing them on less favorable terms could materially affect growth and profitability.
- Cost pressurehigh
Rising labor, food and energy costs could compress margins, especially on profit and loss contracts.
- Distributor dependencemedium
Reliance on Sysco and other distributors for supply could create operational disruption if relationships deteriorate.
- International exposuremedium
Currency swings, geopolitical tensions and regulatory changes can affect operations in the countries outside the United States where the company operates.
- Unforeseen eventsmedium
Natural disasters, pandemics and sports strikes can sharply reduce activity at client locations.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- Accelerating organic growth and high client retention point to a solid base, and if the pace holds the company could exceed current expectations.
- Aramark Nexus and hyperscaler contracts could open a new and durable growth source if they expand to more locations.
- Supply chain efficiencies and cost control could keep improving margins, particularly in high-volume quarters.
What would break the thesis
- The profit and loss contract structure exposes the company to cost risk, and rapid growth in such contracts could compress margins.
- Third-quarter growth was partly helped by sports events and calendar factors, which could make future results harder to anticipate.
- Competition from large providers and from institutions that self-operate could limit the ability to win new contracts at good margins.
What to watch
- Fourth-quarter results and whether AOI growth and margin expansion accelerate as the company has indicatedQ4 2026
- Development of AI data center contracts and the number of sites mobilized2027
- Client retention rate and volume of new contract wins versus the prior yearQ1 2027
- Achievement of the leverage ratio target below 3x by the end of fiscal 2026next 10-K
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
The business
Aramark provides food, hospitality and facilities services to clients in education, healthcare, business and industry, sports, leisure and corrections. According to its annual report for fiscal 2025, the company runs two reportable segments, FSS United States and FSS International, and relies on about 278,390 employees 1. The company was separated from its uniform division, which became Vestis, in September 2023 1.
The revenue model combines profit and loss contracts, where Aramark bears all expenses and receives the revenue, with client interest contracts that pay a management fee. For fiscal 2025, about two-thirds of revenue came from the first type 1. This structure offers greater profit potential but also higher cost risk.
Market context
The institutional food and facilities services market is served by local, regional, national and international companies, as well as by institutions that choose to run these services themselves. The company competes with large players such as Compass Group, Sodexo and Delaware North, but the market remains fragmented at regional and local levels 1.
Demand depends on the trend toward outsourcing, sports events and campus activity, and seasonality shapes quarterly revenue 12. The AI data center segment is new for the company and could expand significantly if hyperscaler clients keep awarding contracts 3.
Trends
- Outsourcing of servicesmixed
Clients that outsource non-core functions support long-term growth in the market, but the trend could reverse if clients choose to self-operate or favor preferred vendors.
- AI data centerstailwind
Hyperscaler demand for premium hospitality services through Aramark Nexus could open a new growth segment if the announced contracts expand.
- Labor and food cost pressureheadwind
Higher minimum wages, personnel costs and food prices can compress margins, especially on profit and loss contracts where the company has limited ability to pass costs on.
- Macroeconomic uncertaintyheadwind
The Middle East conflict and tariff policies have increased volatility, which could affect inflation, interest rates and currency markets, although the company has not reported a material impact yet 2.
Competitive position
Competition comes from multi-regional providers such as Compass Group, Delaware North and Sodexo, as well as ISS and Elior internationally. Larger competitors may offer a broader range of services and a wider geographic footprint 1.
The main success factors are quality and breadth of services, reputation, pricing, financial strength and purchasing scale 1. Regional or local providers may be better established in specific geographies 1.
- Compass Group plc
Multi-regional food and facilities services provider active in the United States and internationally, a direct competitor across most sectors.
- Sodexo SA
International food and facilities services competitor active in education, healthcare and business sectors.
- Delaware North Companies
Multi-regional services provider with a presence in sports, leisure and food, a competitor in the US segment.
- ISS
International facilities services provider competing in support services outside the United States.
Links, dependencies and risks
Who the company is tied to, from its own SEC filings (customers, suppliers, production, partners, competitors, countries, regulation), from the 5 %+ holders' statements (13D/13G) and from what other companies say about it. Click a node for its evidence; on a listed company the graph moves to it.
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News & filings
In the press
No news in our archive over the last 180 days.
SEC filings
- Quarterly report11 Aug 2026
- Current report11 Aug 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report07 Aug 2026Departure or appointment of officers
- Quarterly report12 May 2026
- Current report12 May 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report20 Feb 2026Departure or appointment of officers · Regulation FD disclosure
- Quarterly report10 Feb 2026
- Current report10 Feb 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report04 Feb 2026Shareholder vote
- Proxy statement22 Dec 2025
Sources
- [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2025-10-03 · SEC / Aramark · 25 Nov 2025
- [2] Form 10-Q, quarter ended 2026-07-03 · SEC / Aramark · 11 Aug 2026
- [3] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / Aramark · 11 Aug 2026
Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.